International demographic statistics: United Nations estimates and projections. World population explosion Demographic indicators of the world of individual regions and countries
Peter Grunwald, who studies the demography of the world, calculated that in the entire history of mankind, about 107 billion people were born. Over the past 6 thousand years, the absolute increase in the number of the planet has been maintained, despite famine, war and disease. How will the situation on the planet change in the near future?
Demographics of the world: statistics
There were a billion inhabitants on Earth at the beginning of the 19th century. It took humanity over a hundred years to double its numbers. Rapid population growth began in the 1960s. Every 11-16 years a new billion was added. About 7,320 million people live on Earth today. The top five countries in terms of the number of inhabitants:
- China (1374 million);
- India (1267 million);
- USA (324 million);
- Indonesia (258 million);
- Brazil (205 million).
Followed by: Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Russia and Japan. Unprecedented birth control measures have been carried out in China since the 1970s. High fines, forced abortions and sterilizations, pregnancy planning companies have paid off.
By 2015, the country's working-age population had decreased by more than 3.5 million people. Last year, the government officially allowed the families of the Middle Kingdom to have a second child. Today, China's population growth is just over 0.4% per year. For comparison, this figure is three times higher in India, seven times higher in Ethiopia, and negative in Germany and Japan.
The most populous countries are: Holland, Belgium, Japan, Korea, China. Mexico City remains the leader in the number of inhabitants among the cities of the world (19.5 million). The ratio of the total number of women and men on the planet is kept at the level of: 52% and 48%.
Forecasts in numbers
The UN committee, which deals with the demography of the countries of the world, claims that India will surpass China in size as early as 2025. In a number of countries: Russia, Germany, Poland, Romania, Ukraine, Serbia, Japan, there will be a significant decrease in the number of inhabitants. Experts call the main reasons: the loss of family values, abortions, same-sex marriages, migration.
At the same time, there will be more than 9 billion people on Earth by the middle of the century. Significant increases are expected in 50 underdeveloped countries. Among them:
- Congo, Tanzania, Madagascar, Angola, Cambodia - 5 times;
- Nigeria - 4 times;
- Pakistan, Ethiopia, Egypt - twice;
- India by a third.
About half of all inhabitants of the Earth will live in Asia, a quarter - in Africa.
The data are approximate, the demographics of the world population can accurately calculate the numbers for the next two decades. Further, scientists are based on assumptions. Academician S.P. Kapitsa in his mathematical model assumes stabilization by 2135. According to various sources, by the end of the 21st century there will be from 11 to 14 billion people on the planet.
Modern problems of demography in the world
The situation on the planet causes enough cause for concern. Population growth is uneven, at the expense of the least developed countries. In the future, there will be an acute solution to issues related to low living standards.
In South Africa, which has the highest birth rate on the planet, life expectancy has fallen by 14 years over the past two decades. This is due to famine, epidemics, diseases, including AIDS, and a high level of infant mortality.
In prosperous regions, the main problems of demography in the world are:
- urbanization;
- aging;
- migration.
In 2009, for the first time in the history of mankind, the number of rural and urban residents on the planet equaled. Since then, the proportion of city dwellers has been steadily growing. This trend continues in the developed regions of the world. The highest rate of urbanization in the US (83%) and the UK (90%). For comparison: in India, there are twice as many rural residents than urban ones.
Why is this phenomenon considered negative? First of all, because of the direct connection with the deterioration of the environmental situation. To expand the urban area, forests are being cut down and new roads are being laid. Emissions from a growing number of cars are a major cause of air pollution.
The problem of ecology is especially urgent in megacities. The population density in some of the largest cities reaches several tens of thousands of people per square kilometer (New York, Mexico City). In many megacities, there is not enough work for newcomers - slums are growing, crime is thriving.
In developed countries, in recent decades, there has been an increase in life expectancy. In Western Europe it is 2-3%, in the USA - 1-2%. The highest rate is traditionally in Japan and Scandinavian countries. At the same time, in Germany and Italy, the birth rate is steadily falling. By 2050, the proportion of people over 60 will be about a third of the population. There will be two disabled pensioners per 5-year-old child.
Many states, for example: Germany, Austria, Greece, Italy, maintain numbers solely because of the flow of emigrants. Because of this, there are: unemployment, unrest and ethnic conflicts. Increasing attention is being paid to process control.
In the relatively recent past, even before the era of antibiotics and with widespread famine, humanity did not particularly think about its size. And there was a reason, since constant wars and massive famine claimed millions of lives.
Especially indicative in this respect were the two World Wars, when the losses of all the warring parties exceeded 70-80 million people. Historians believe that more than 100 million died, since the actions of the Japanese militarists in China to this day have not been adequately studied, although they killed a huge number of civilians.
Today there are other global problems. The demographic problem is one of the most serious and important among them. However, one should not assume that the sharp increase in the number of mankind began exclusively in our days. In the distant past, there were also sharp jumps in the population of individual countries, and all these processes often led to very serious consequences on a global scale.
What causes a population explosion?
Population spikes are thought to have a positive side, though. The fact is that in this case, entire countries are “younger”, the costs of medicine are reduced. But that's where all the good ends.
The number of beggars is growing sharply, the cost of education is growing many times over, the number of specialists graduating from educational institutions is growing so much that the country simply cannot provide them with employment. A huge number of young and healthy people are appearing on the labor market who are ready to do work for very modest remuneration. As a result, the cost of their labor (already cheap) falls to a minimum. The rise in crime begins, robberies and murders quickly become the "calling card" of the state.
Comprehensive vision of the problem
In addition, in many regions of Central Africa the population has already been reduced to such a state of poverty that a large number of children who will work in the fields or beg is the only means of survival for the family. Growing up, they join the ranks of countless armed formations that continue to drive the entire region into even greater chaos. The reason is the absence of even elementary state support for social development, the absence of any sources of official income.
Other dangers of overpopulation
It is known that the level of consumption of modern civilization is many thousand times higher than the level of normal biological human needs. Even the poorest countries are consuming more than they did a couple of hundred years ago.
Of course, with a sharp increase in the population, the general impoverishment of most of it and the complete inability of state structures to establish at least some semblance of control over all this, irrational consumption of resources increases like an avalanche. The consequence of this is the manifold increase in the discharge of toxic waste from artisanal enterprises, mountains of garbage and the complete neglect of at least some environmental protection measures.
What does all this lead to?
As a result, the country is on the verge of an ecological catastrophe, and the population is on the verge of starvation. Do you think modern demographic problems began only in recent years? In the same Africa, since the mid-60s, in entire provinces, people began to suffer from a lack of food. Western medicines made it possible to increase life expectancy, but its general way of life remained the same.
Many children were born, more and more land was needed to feed them. And farming there to this day is carried out by the slash-and-burn method. As a result, hectares of fertile soil turned into deserts, subjected to wind erosion and leaching.
These are all global problems. The demographic problem (as you can see) is characteristic of transitional cultures that have gained a sharp access to the benefits of modern civilization. They do not know how to reorganize or do not want to, as a result of which there are severe socio-cultural contradictions that can even lead to war.
Reverse example
However, in our world there are many countries in which the demographic problem is presented from a completely opposite angle. We are talking about developed countries, in which the problem is precisely that people of reproductive age do not want to create families, do not give birth to children.
As a result, migrants take the place of indigenous peoples, who often contribute to the complete destruction of the entire socio-cultural component of the ethnic group that previously lived in this territory. Of course, this is not a very life-affirming ending, but without the active intervention and participation of the state, such a problem cannot be solved.
How can the demographic problem be solved?
So what are the ways to solve the demographic problem? Solutions follow logically from the causes of the phenomenon. First, it is imperative to raise the standard of living of the population and improve its medical care. It is known that mothers in poor countries are often forced to give birth to many children, not only because of tradition, but also because of high
If every child survives, it will make less sense to give birth to a dozen children. Unfortunately, in the case of the same migrants in Europe, good medical care only led to the fact that they began to give birth even more. Approximately the same is observed in Haiti, where the vast majority of the population lives far below the poverty line, but continues to give birth regularly. Various public organizations pay benefits to many, which are quite enough for survival.
Medicine - above all!
Therefore, it is not necessary to be limited only to improving the quality of medical care. It is necessary to offer financial incentives to families with no more than two or three children, tax them less, offer simplified schemes for entering universities for children from such families. In other words, they must be addressed comprehensively.
In addition, effective social advertising about the benefits of contraception, supported by the low cost of such drugs, is extremely important. It is necessary to explain to people that overpopulation entails poor living conditions for their children, who will not be able to live normally in the smog of large cities, devoid of greenery and clean air.
How to increase the birth rate?
And what are the ways to solve the demographic problem, if we have to fight not with overpopulation, but with a shortage of this very population? Oddly enough, but they are almost the same. Consider them from the standpoint of our state.
First, it is extremely important to improve the well-being of the population. Many young families do not have a child just because they are not sure about the future. We need affordable housing for young families, tax incentives, significantly increased payments of material benefits to families with many children.
Among other things, it is mandatory to provide the opportunity to obtain preferential medicines and food for children. Since all this costs a lot, many young families simply deplete their budgets by buying everything they need only with their own money. In the same row is the reduction in young and large families.
Of course, we should not forget about the promotion of family values. In any case, the solution of the demographic problem must necessarily be comprehensive, with the obligatory consideration of all the factors that lead to birth disorders.
International Demographic Statistics: United Nations Estimates and Projections
Thus, the continued growth of the total population of the world, with a relative stabilization of this indicator in economically more developed countries, clearly indicates a positive trend in the number of Third World citizens. The constant growth of the population of this group of countries, a significant part of which is classified by international standards as the least developed, is obvious in all scenarios and, therefore, in all forecasts.
The demographic situation in developing countries attracts close attention of the world community: the prospective development of the world in all areas will be largely determined by the situation in the "less developed regions", especially in Asia, which in many respects plays a crucial role. Five demographic leaders: China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh - Asian states (see Table 3; the situation in the Russian Federation will be considered separately); Brazil and Mexico are in America; the most populated countries in Africa (2004) are Nigeria (128.7 million) and Ethiopia (75.6 million).
Table 3. The world's largest countries by population
Specific weight, % of the total |
Average annual growth rate, % |
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1975-2004 |
2004-2015 |
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Indonesia |
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Brazil |
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Pakistan |
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Bangladesh |
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Sources: Development Human Report 2006. N.Y., 2006. P. 298-300; Monthly Bulletin of Statistics. N.Y., December 2006. P. 1-5.
The high rates of demographic growth in developing countries will continue into the future, despite a decline from 1.9% in 1975-2004. up to 1.3% in 2004-2015 Recall that the average annual growth rate of the world population for the same periods is 1.8 and 1.1%. Particularly dynamic population growth is characteristic of the 50 least developed countries of the world. For example, the total population of Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Guinea-Bissau, Congo, Mali, Niger and a number of other countries will almost triple.
Uneven population growth leads to a constant reduction in the share of developed regions in the world total - 32% in 1950, 19% in 2005 and 14% in 2050 - and to an increase in the share of developing countries.
The unevenness of population growth is noted not only between groups of states, but also between specific countries. Particularly noteworthy are the changes characteristic of the development trends of the two leaders in the global demographic situation - China and India. Increasingly, India is ahead of China in both relative and absolute indicators of dynamics, constantly increasing its share in the world total. At the same time, there is some reduction in the corresponding indicator of China (Table 3), which, nevertheless, does not deprive it of the first position in the corresponding rating so far.
These same two world demographic leaders account for a large part of the projected absolute increase in the average annual population: in 2015 it is 258 million out of 830 million, or more than a third. At the same time, it is interesting and appropriate to once again focus on the fact that China will continue to cede some of its positions to India. Thus, by 2015, the population growth in comparison with 2004 will be 173 million in India, and "only" 85 million in China.
In addition, a fairly significant concentration of the population remains in the largest countries in terms of its size. In 10 states with a population of more than 100 million people, of which only two are included in the group of "more developed regions", in 2004 more than 3.3 billion people (50.3% of the world total) lived, of which 2.4 billion (37.6%) - in China and India. However, in the future, the concentration of the population in the most populous countries will decrease. Thus, the share of states that in 2004 topped the list of the largest countries in terms of the number of citizens - China, India, the USA, Indonesia, Brazil, Japan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Russia - will decrease to 49.6% in 2015 against 52.5% in 2004, including China and India - up to 36.8% (Table 3).
The demographic situation poses many questions to the world, the solution of which in most cases is difficult only by individual countries and requires international cooperation of various formats and levels. First of all, this refers to global problems, the most acute of which have been urbanization for several decades; migration; population aging; the ratio of indicators of natural increase - fertility and mortality, etc.
Let us turn to the most striking and, therefore, the most widely known indicators from among the estimates and projections of the UN, which help to get an idea of the current and future - up to 2050 - demographic situation. We will focus our attention on 2015 and 2020. for the previously stated reason.
The population density indicator gives an idea of the average number of people living per 1 sq. km. km of territory. According to 2000 data, it was 45 people in the world, and 115 people in Asia, the most populated part of the world, compared to 19 and 44, respectively, in 1950. The most authoritative demographers predict a further increase in the indicator: by 2020 to 56 people and by 2050 to 67 people per 1 sq. km for the world as a whole and 143 and 164 people for Asia. In China, the figure was 58 in 1950 and 133 in 2000; in India -109 and 311; in the Russian Federation - 1 and 8. The maximum population density in the Republic of Korea - 189 and 470 people; Holland -244 and 383; Belgium - 283 and 338 respectively. Japan was among the leaders in 2000 - 221 and 336 people per 1 sq. km. km.
The issue of dividing the population into urban and rural areas is related to population density, and as a logical continuation, the problem of urbanization, which is understood as the concentration of economic and cultural life in large urban centers (Table 4). According to the UN Demographic Yearbook for 2006, in China, Shanghai remains the largest cities - 14.4 million people and Beijing - 11.5 million (2000). In India, the largest population is in Delhi (2001 - 9, 8 million, and with the suburbs - 12.8 million. The largest agglomeration of the world continues to be Mexico City - 19.5 million people (2003).
Table 4. Urban population of the world, % of the total population
Developing countries |
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A source
The urban population is increasing in all countries, but especially in the group of economically developed countries, often identified with the member states of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Table 5). In 2004, in this group of countries, the highest indicator was Iceland - 92.7%, and the lowest in this group of countries - Portugal - 57.0%. Despite the change in the stereotype regarding the advantages of living in cities, primarily in large ones, the number of urban agglomerations with a population of 1 million inhabitants or more continues to grow. The undisputed leader here belongs to the United States, where in 2003 there were 34 such urbanized formations. The largest among them are New York (17.8 million people) and Los Angeles (11.8 million people).
Urban population growth will continue. It will significantly outpace the dynamics of the rural population. This trend is especially noticeable in developed regions, where the rural population has been constantly declining since the 1950s. Among the leading OECD countries, this is most noticeable in Japan: by 2005 it amounted to 2.8 million people, compared with 4.5 million in 1990 (4.3 and 7.2% of the number of employed).
Table 5. Total urban population in the leading OECD countries, % of the total population
A source: Development Human Report 2006. P. 298-300.
As you know, it is the cities, and above all the large and largest ones, that are the points of attraction for the majority of immigrants. Thus, the continuation of the logical chain of problems of population density - urban and rural population - urbanization is an extremely acute (but, of course, differentiated by groups of countries and individual countries) migration problem.
According to the UN forecast, in 2045-2050. the main receiving countries will be the USA (1.1 million immigrants annually), Germany (202 thousand), Canada (200 thousand), Great Britain (130 thousand), Italy (120 thousand) and Australia (100 thousand). In Russia, the balance of migration (net migration, or the excess of immigrants over emigrants) is estimated at 50,000 people annually. The negative balance will be typical for China (an average of 327 thousand emigrants per year), Mexico (293 thousand), India (241 thousand), Philippines (180 thousand), Indonesia (164 thousand), Pakistan (154 thousand people). ) and Ukraine (100 thousand).
For 2005-2050 the average annual level of international net migration is estimated at 2.2 million people, or 98 million for the period as a whole. In the more developed regions of the world, emigrant flows often compensate for the natural population decline, and in some cases can even break the downward trend in population, as was the case in 2000-2005. in Austria, Germany, Greece, Italy, Slovakia, Slovenia and Croatia.
Migration flows significantly depend on the state of labor markets in the host countries, and they depend not least on the age and sex structure of the population. The study of the gender (by sex) structure is carried out on the basis of indicators of the proportion of the female (male) population in the total population (for example, in the PRC in 2000, 48.6% of the population were women), as well as the percentage ratio of the male and female population, then is the number of men per 100 women. According to estimates, in the whole world this indicator will be 100.6% in 2020; in 2050 - 99.4% against 110% in 2005 and 99.6% in 1950.
To study the age structure of the population, three main groups are distinguished: up to 14 years (children); from 15 to 64 years (working-age population); 65 years and older (older age group, post-labour population). Global data for 2004 - 28.5; 64.2 and 7.3% respectively. The highest rate of the young population and at the same time the lowest rate of the older age group have been consistently recorded in Africa for many years.
The average "median" age in the world is 26.8 years, in Russia - 36.4 years, USA - 30.0 years. Another indicator of the age structure is the aging coefficient (the proportion of people aged 65 and over in the total population of the country). In accordance with established world practice, a country belongs to the category of "demographically aging" if the persons of this age group make up 15 percent or more of the total population of the country.
According to the censuses of the late 20th - early 21st centuries, almost all economically developed countries have crossed this border. The proportion of the population aged 60 years and over was 20% there, and by 2050 it will rise to 32%. This age group has already outnumbered children and this trend is expected to increase, with two older people per child by 2050.
According to UN estimates, the problem of population aging is characteristic of almost all countries of the world. The differences concern only the degree of dynamism of this process and, of course, the actual levels of these indicators of the age structure of the population (Table 6). In Russia, not only a slight reduction in the proportion of the elderly population is expected, but also an absolute reduction in their number by 1.43 million people). By 2050, the number of older people (in this case, the population aged 60 and over) in the world is projected to rise to 1.9 billion from 672 million in 2005, essentially tripling. At the same time, most of them will be concentrated in developing countries: in 2050, 8 people out of 10 versus 6 out of 10 in 2005. In addition, it is in these countries that the largest number of long-livers will live - people aged 80 years and older. Their global number will grow to 394 million people.
Table 6. People of the oldest age group in the world's population
Total population, million people |
Proportion of population aged 65 and over |
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Developing countries |
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A source: Development Human Report 2006. P. 298-300.
Of great interest is information about life expectancy. This is the estimated number of years of life of people born in the specified year. So, the global indicator for 1950-1955. was 46.6 years (45.3 years for men and 48.0 for women), and for 2000-2005. - 65.4 (63.2 and 67.7 years respectively).
In 2045-2050 the expected average life expectancy for the general population could be 75.1 years, including 72.8 years for men and 77.8 years for women. The basis for such optimism is the factual data: by the end of the 20th century. life expectancy increased by 2-3% in Western Europe, by 1- 2% in USA. Moreover, in most countries in the second half of the XX century. The growth of this important demographic indicator in men was faster than in women. However, higher rates remained in women. According to the 2000-2005 estimate, the total figure was 75.6 years, including 79.3 for women; for men - 71.9. And in the future, the average life expectancy of women will be higher than that of men (in 2045-2050, 85.0 years and 79.1 years, respectively).
In recent decades, the best indicators of life expectancy for both women and men have been recorded in Japan and the Scandinavian countries - Norway and Sweden. They will remain as high as possible in 2045-2050: for Japan - 84.1; 92.5 and 88.3 years respectively; for Norway - 82.7; 87.2 and 84.9; for Sweden - 83.4; 87.6 and 85.5.
In developing countries, life expectancy has also increased significantly and continues to grow: from 41.1 years in 1950-1955. (40.3 years for men and 42.0 years for women) to 63.4 (61.7 for men and 65.2 years for women) in 2000-2005. For 2045-2050 these figures will be 67.4; 71.8 and 76.2 years. The problem of life expectancy is especially acute in the group of 50 least developed countries of the world. Here, the countdown of dynamics starts from 36.1 years (35.4 years for men and 36.8 years for women) in 1950-1955. and growth is expected in 2045-2050. up to 66.5; 64.9 and 68.2 years.
This positive outlook contrasts with the depressing evidence for individual countries. So, in 2000-2005. in Nigeria, life expectancy was 43.3 years; Somalia - 46.2; Senegal - 55.6; in Ghana, 56.7 years. The AIDS epidemic is rightly considered one of the reasons for this situation. In South Africa, where its prevalence is highest, life expectancy has even declined from 62 years in 1990-1995. up to 48 years in 2000-2005
This negative factor significantly exacerbates the problem of the ratio of mortality and birth rates - natural population growth (Table 7). The indicators are expressed in ppm ( ‰ ), that is, per 1 thousand people in decimilles (0 / 000 ), that is, per 10 thousand people. According to the UN, the total fertility rate in the world will be in 2045-2050. 13.8‰. This means that during this period, there will be an average of 138 births per 10,000 people per year.
Table 7. Key global and regional demographic indicators
Average annual number, million people |
III, man |
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Latin America |
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North America |
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I - total fertility rate; II - total mortality rate; III - population density.
A source: Statistical Yearbook. N.Y., 2005. P. 12-13.
Fertility is one of the determining factors that have a particularly tangible impact on the change in the population of individual countries, regions and the world as a whole. The highest birth rates in 2000-2005. were typical for the countries of Asia and Central Africa. At the beginning of the new millennium, the highest birth rates in developing countries remained in Mozambique - 42.7‰, Jordan - 27.4, Peru - 23.0. In China, these ratios have declined from 43.8‰ in 1950-1955. up to 13.6‰ in 2000-2005 This information is mostly a UN estimate. Relatively reliable data date back no later than 2003-2004.
In the context of multidirectional trends in the dynamics of fertility and mortality at the end of the last century, the world population increased by 2003 compared to 1950 by 3.8 billion people, or 2.5 times, including in Asia - by 2, 4 billion or 2.7 times. Consequently, the proportion of the growth of the Asian population amounted to almost 64%. The more interesting the data of the prospective natural increase in the population of this part of the world: the birth rate will also grow - from 17.0% in 2015-2020. to 19.3% 0 in 2045-2050, and the mortality rate is 7.6 and 10.2‰.
Among the factors of high birth rates, the distribution of the population into urban and rural areas continues to play an important role. In 1975, in developing regions, only 26.5% of the population were city dwellers. Over the past years, no significant changes have been noted, although the trend towards an increase in the proportion of the urban population is becoming obvious here too: 42.2% in 2004 and 48.0% in 2015.
We emphasize, however, that the world as a whole is characterized by a downward trend in the levels of natural population movement. Thus, the total fertility rates will decrease from 37.5‰ in 1950-1955. up to 22.1‰ in 2000-2005 and up to 13.8‰ in 2045-2050. The reduction will be almost universal. In China, for example, from 13.2‰ in 2005-2010. to 10.2‰ in 2045-2050
The overall mortality rate is also declining - from 19.5‰ in 1950-1955. up to 9.5‰ in 2000-2005 Worldwide decline in mortality rates in the 20th and early 21st centuries. - the result, first of all, of a sharp manifestation of this trend in developing countries: 23.8‰ in 1950-1955. and 8.7‰ in 2000-2005. However, the situation continues to be difficult. The problem of child mortality is particularly acute. The corresponding coefficients are measured by monstrous numbers (‰ ): in general for less developed countries -180 in 1950-1955; 62 - in 2000-2005 and 36 - according to the forecast for 2045-2050. These figures are especially high for children under the age of 5: in Africa, for example, 179‰ in 1950-1955; 94 - in 2000-2005 and 59‰ according to the forecast in 2045-2050. However, after 2020-2025, when the overall mortality rates for the world as a whole fall to 8.8‰, the trend will reverse. In 2045-2050 the mortality rate in both absolute and relative form will increase on average per year to 90.7 million people, or 10.1‰ against 64.9 million people, or 8.8‰ in 2015-2020. and 59.5 million people and 8.9‰ in 2005-2010.
It is also interesting to compare world and regional data on natural population growth: for the world as a whole, this coefficient in 2000-2005. averaged 12‰ (which means an increase in the population by 12 people per thousand inhabitants). For Africa, the corresponding figure was 23‰, while in Europe it was below both the named regional and world levels. At the same time, in a number of countries it even had negative values (Table 8).
Table 8. Vitality rates of the population of the leading OECD countries per 1 thousand people, ‰
Great Britain |
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1 - fertility; 2 - mortality; 3 - natural increase.
A source: Labor Force Statistics 1985-2005. OECD. Paris, 2006. P. 52-53, 72-73, 90-91, 170-171, 180-181, 230-231, 340-341.
The situation in Russia remains difficult, but even in this case there have been positive developments: an increase in the birth rate with a decrease in the number of deaths has determined the reduction in the natural loss of Russians; slightly, but still increased the indicator of life expectancy; infant mortality is decreasing.
In October 2002, the All-Russian Population Census was conducted (as of 00:00 on October 9). Since the previous census (1989), Russia's population has decreased by 1.9 million people, but the 2002 census results are 1.8 million more than the current estimate of the number of Russians of the same year. Table data. 9 speak of stable growth and stabilization of the share of the urban population. According to the UN forecast, in the new millennium the population of our country will decline: to 129.2 million people in 2025 and 111.8 million in 2050. As a result, the total population of Russia, as well as the Baltic countries, as well as most of the republics of the former Soviet Union, in 2050 will be lower than in 2005.
Table 9. Main results of population censuses in Russia
Census year |
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Population, total, thousand people |
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including urban |
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thousand people |
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share in the total population % |
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male |
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thousand people |
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share in the total population, % |
A source: Results of the All-Russian population census of 2002. M., 2003. S. 8, 9.
The birth rate in Russia will decrease in 2045-2050. to 10.5‰ against 11.2‰ in 2005-2010, or from 1.5 to 1.2 million people per year. Mortality will also decrease - from 2.3 to 1.9 million people a year. The child mortality rate is projected to decrease from 19 to 9‰, including for children under 5 years of age - from 21 to 11‰ . Favorable forecasts regarding the dynamics of life expectancy - up to 72.9 years (up to 68.9 for men, up to 76.5 for women). Net migration is projected at a stable level of 50,000 people per year, or 0.4‰.
The key conclusion of the UN forecast is the following. Despite the decline in fertility rates projected for the period 2005-2050, until the middle of the century, the annual population growth will be about 34 million people, and the world population at an average birth rate will reach 9.1 billion people.
TARLETSKAYA Lidia Vladimirovna, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor at MGIMO (U) of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation.
In preparing the article, along with the UN forecasts and estimates presented in World Population Prospects. The 2004 revision, used information from other authoritative publications of the UN, in particular, from the UN Demographic Yearbook for 2006, as well as from publications of the OECD, whose database is one of the most informative and reliable data.
For details of the calculation methodology, see: World Population Prospects. The 2002 revision. T. III. analytical report. N.Y., 2005. P. 180-182.
These works are carried out by a special working group, which also includes representatives of the ILO, UNESCO, FAO and a number of other organizations from among the most authoritative.
World Population Prospects. The 2004 revision. V. I: Comprehensive Tables. P.lxxxi.
The net reproduction rate is the average number of girls born to one woman who survived to the end of the reproductive period (15-49 years) at birth and death rates conventionally taken as unchanged.
Hereinafter, unless otherwise noted, the calculations are based on data taken from the World Population Prospects. The 2004 revision. V. I: Comprehensive Tables.
Country forecasts for later periods are not available.
In world practice, there are discrepancies in the formation of these categories in individual countries. The main principle of grouping remains the number of inhabitants, but in Denmark it is 250 people, in most US states - 2.5 thousand people, in Russia - 12 thousand, in Japan - 30 thousand people (see: Multilingual Demographic Dictionary. New York, United Nations, 1964, p. 29).
The median age means that 50% of the population is older than it and 50% is younger, that is, the growth of this age indicates the aging of the population.
Until recently, the calculation was carried out for the group "60 years and older". Currently, both options are used, which sometimes introduces some confusion into the analysis of the finished data.
See: World Population Prospects. The 2004 revision. V. Ill: Analytical Report. P. Lxxiv.
The phenomenon of the “graying population” was formed in the second half of the 20th century. In antiquity and in the Middle Ages, old age was an extremely rare phenomenon: until the 17th century. only 1% of people reached the age of 65. By the beginning of the XIX century. this figure rose to 4%. Subsequently, a combination of factors has influenced the increase in life expectancy in industrialized countries: significant achievements in the field of health, especially through the fight against infectious and other diseases, improved nutrition, improved medical care and an increase in other components of the quality of life of the population. In 1950, older people aged 60 and over made up 8% of the world's population, in 2000 - already 10%. Today, according to demographers, about 70% of the population of Western Europe will live over 65 years, and 30–40% over 80.
In this regard, in the next three to four decades, the size and age composition of the population in industrialized countries will undergo significant changes. Due to the declining birth rate and increasing life expectancy, a sharp increase in the proportion of older people and a decrease in the population are predicted. If the existing levels of fertility and mortality in European countries are maintained, the number of children under the age of 15 will decrease by 40% by 2050 (to 87 million), and the number of elderly people will double (to 169 million people). If Europe is to maintain its current age distribution, it will have to accept 169 million immigrants by 2050, mostly from Africa and the Middle East. Demographers' forecasts indicate that in the next 50 years the age structure of the population in European countries will change dramatically in favor of middle and older ages.
Based on the age characteristics of the population of industrialized countries, the age structure of society today can be represented as a rectangle rounded at the top, since approximately equal numbers of people are in all age decades (i.e. the same number of those who are 0–9 years old, 10 -19 years old, 20-29 years old, etc.). The age structure of society for 1900 for the same group of countries looks like a pyramid, since a large number of people were in the youngest age group, much fewer people were recorded in working age, and the smallest proportion of people in the elderly.
Moreover, the rectangle-shaped age structure of the population is being replaced by a new variation in the form of an “inverted pyramid”: one child, two parents, four grandparents, and several great-grandparents. In this case, the average age of representatives of two or more generations can be over 60 years.
The current situation in the demographic characteristics of modern society means qualitative changes in the structure of the lifetime of generations: the length of time spent in middle and older ages is increasing and, accordingly, their shares in the total lifetime of each generation are growing. Population aging or an increase in the proportion of elderly and old people in the total population is influenced by a number of factors: a decrease in the birth rate (or “aging from below”), an increase in the average life expectancy of older people (or “aging from above”), as well as migration and some other reasons. It should be noted, however, that these forecasts are inertial in nature. This means that they proceed from the assumption of non-interference in the demographic processes of the active purposeful will of the state and society, from the fact that the demographic process is predetermined. This theory is called the demographic transition theory. However, in modern works it is shown that the theory of demographic variability is more reasonable (meaning its managerial potential). Its main postulates are based on the facts of a combination of high life expectancy and high birth rates. The factors responsible for this combination for Russia are identified. To live long as in the West and give birth as in the East is a completely achievable result for the appropriate state administration. The main parameters describing the demographic state are the birth rate, death rate, life expectancy, migration balance. For state monitoring and management, it is advisable to have an integrative target and value parameter that characterizes the demographic state and the success of demographic policy as a whole. Like in this What is the meaning of "summing up" births, deaths, life expectancy and migration? They are even measured in different units. For this purpose, a single integrative indicator of the success of demographic policy is proposed - the country's vitality coefficient.
Where H is the population (persons), P is the birth rate (persons per 1000 people per year), C is the death rate (persons per 1000 people per year), Δt = 1 year, LE is life expectancy (years), M - migration balance (persons per year), В (eff. people. life. per year) - population growth, taking into account effective human lives due to the variability of life expectancy. The introduction of this parameter is explained by the desire to operationalize in the managerial and legal sense the recognition of human life as the highest measure of state-administrative success. Human life in the primary, most important civilizational value definition is life itself, that is, the very fact of human existence, every day lived by every person in this world. This fact is described by fertility (the addition of human life), mortality (the loss of human life), the time of life lived by a person, the addition or loss of human life on the national territory due to migration. The first two indicators are measured in the number of births and deaths per 1000 people. for one year. The third is measured in years. Fourth in absolute number of people. How to combine them in a single integrative indicator? How to form an indicator so that it really characterizes the success (in a positive value sense) of the state policy? The entered parameter allows you to do this. Its physical meaning lies in the possibility of measuring the response of the demographic state of society to the state policy of the highest level. Calculations according to the formula without taking into account the migration contribution, for example, for the years of reforms of 1990–2005, show that there were no additional births in the country, additional deaths and a decrease in the number of effective human lives (due to a decrease in life expectancy) in the amount of 28 million people. Unfortunately, this account continues to this day. The time course of the vitality coefficient in Russia is shown in fig. one.
Rice. 1 Vitality ratio derived from annual demographic data
An important conclusion in the context of the topic under discussion follows from the fact, which is clearly visible in the figure, that the amplitude of short-term (several years) emissions is greater than the variability due to the long-term trend (with a characteristic time of tens to hundreds of years). Emissions are both negative and positive. This means that socio-political, socio-economic events (or in the language of public policy, as management practices, management decisions, measures and actions) can lead to very significant demographic results. The results can be positive if smart and effective management measures are taken. This, in turn, means that the fatal predetermination of long demographic transition trends should not be overestimated. Active state management practice can significantly change the situation for the better. The same conclusion is confirmed by a comparative analysis of demographic data for different countries. The situations are so different that it also confirms our assessment of the explanatory or even more absolutizable conclusions of the demographic transition theory. At the same time, modern trends classified from the standpoint of the demographic transition must be carefully studied and taken into account.
Various categories and scales are used to assess the process of population aging. According to one of them, the population can be considered "old" if the proportion of people aged 60 years and over is 12% or more in relation to the total population, and those aged 65 years and over - 8% or more. As quantitative indicators of population aging, the proportion of people of a certain age, for example, over 60 or 65 years old (denoted 60+ or 65+) in the total population is used. In accordance with the UN classification, the beginning of old age is not 60, but 65 years. If the proportion of the population aged 65 and over is 4%, the population is considered "young", 4-7% - at the "threshold of old age", 7% and above - "old". According to UN forecasts, the proportion of earthlings aged 60 years and older will increase from 8.2% of the world's population in 1950 to 15% in 2025, and in developed countries - up to 30%. Even higher rates of aging are predicted in European countries. In Europe, by 2050, 37% of the population according to these projections will be older people. This trend is fully inherent in Russia, in which for the period 1959-2002. the total population increased by a quarter, and the number of elderly people increased by more than two and a half times. But again, we will add, provided that the state and society do nothing. As noted in this regard by A.G. Vishnevsky, a well-known supporter of the predetermination of demographic processes, aging in Russia began later than in most European countries, but it also advanced very far, and therefore, in his opinion, our problems are akin to the problems of all aging societies.
The demographic aging of the country's population is caused, first of all, by a decrease in the birth rate and a decrease in the share and number of the employed population (narrowing of the base of the age pyramid).
At the same time, unlike in developed countries, in Russia the features of the age structure of mortality (increased mortality in working age) exacerbate this unfavorable trend and lead to a reduction in the already declining working-age population. At the same time, the forecast of the authors in the case of Russia is different. The current Russian trend may change significantly with the reconfiguration of the state demographic policy. The effectiveness of factors that can significantly increase the birth rate and reduce mortality in working-age cohorts is substantiated. According to the results of the All-Russian population census of 2002, since 1989 the average age of the country's inhabitants has increased by 3 years. The population of working age (men 16–59 years old, women 16–54 years old) amounted to 89.0 million people (61%), younger than working age - 26.3 million people (18%), older than working age - 29.8 million people (21%). At the beginning of 2005, the number of citizens of retirement age amounted to 30.4 million people, or 20.3% of the total population of Russia. The number of people aged 85 years and over continues to grow steadily. The process of population aging is especially pronounced in the European part of Russia, where the proportion of people of retirement age exceeds 23%. Most older people live in cities. At the same time, their share among the rural population is almost 23%, which is 2.9% higher than the same indicator for the urban population. In the long term, within the framework of the inertial approach, a decrease in the number of Russia's permanent population is predicted: by 2020, it may decrease by 9.1% (i.e., by 13.1 million people) and amount to 130 million people. At the same time, the working-age population may decrease by 15.8 million people and amount to 74.4 million people in 2020, or 57.3% of the total population. The proportion of the population over the working age will increase by 2020 to 26.3% against 20.4% in 2005. At the same time, the share of pensioners in the total permanent population of the Russian Federation will increase from 25.4% in 2005 to 29, 7% by 2020. If nothing is changed in state practice, then as a result of this trend, the pension burden of the pension system on the employed population will increase.
If in 2005 there were 198 people employed for every 100 recipients of labor pensions, then in 2020 there will be only 156 people in the inertial forecast. The structure of the population and demographic dynamics make it possible to conclude that the increase in the scale of aging can become a sustainable and irreversible trend for Russia, if no special efforts are made. It should be noted that in Russia the gender imbalance in the age structure is much stronger than in Western Europe: in 2002, in the group of 60 years and older, there were 529 men per 1,000 women. Therefore, the values of such indicators as the proportion of people aged 60+ in the total population and the demographic burden due to the elderly are almost twice as high for the female population in our country than for the male population. For comparison: in Western Europe in 2002, for ages 60+, there were 720 men per 1,000 women. In 1965, out of every thousand men who reached the age of 20, 732 had a chance to live to be 60 years old. In 1980 - only 644, in 2000 - even less - only 563. At the same time, the corresponding figure in the USA in 2000 was 865 people, in France - 868, in Japan - 904, in Sweden - 912. Given such a pronounced gender imbalance, it can be noted that even today the problems of reducing high male mortality in working age, as well as the social problems of older women, especially single women and those living in rural areas, require special attention. The growing proportion of older people raises concerns about the sustainability of pension systems and the labor market, economic health and health care prospects.
The situation of an aging population in the countries of the European Union will require attracting at least 35 million migrant workers to the Western European economy by 2035, because without this it will be impossible to maintain a modern EU pension system and its advanced economic position.
On the other hand, the consequences of population aging, which are long-term and global in nature, give rise not only to acute economic, social, political and psychological problems for most industrialized countries, but also at the same time open up significant opportunities for people, peoples and states. Domestic and foreign scientists note a "new type" of older people who have a high professional and educational background, their health and ability to work are higher compared to previous generations, and their orientations are increasingly shifting towards creative attitudes - work and the development of new professional skills. . Already now in the countries of Western Europe there is such a phenomenon as “young old people”. Its essence lies in the fact that in terms of lifestyle, health and ability to work, range of interests, craving for knowledge, older people who have reached 65 years of age or more fit perfectly into the circle of middle-aged people. The age structure of society reflects the type of reproduction of society (extended, simple, narrowed), the share of each age group, the ratio of the economically active and the incapacitated population, or, as experts call it, the demographic load factor, defined as the ratio of the number of children and the elderly to the number of able-bodied population in the calculation per 1000 people. On the whole, in Russia this figure was 0.629 in 2003. At the same time, demographic statistics single out the dependency ratio for individual ages: younger than working age - the ratio of children to the able-bodied population and older than working age - the ratio of the population older than working age to working age. In Russia as a whole, these figures were 0.292 and 0.337 in 2003, respectively. Thus, today there is a steady trend towards an increase in the proportion of older people in industrialized countries. Within the framework of the theory of demographic transition, an increase in the proportion of people over 65 by more than 10 percentage points is predicted - from 14.3% in 2000 to 25.7% in 2040. It is expected that the population of Austria, Germany, Canada, Italy, Spain, Republic of Korea, Netherlands, Switzerland and Japan. Along with aging, many OECD countries will experience population decline, most notably in Germany, Greece, Italy, Spain and Japan, where rates of decline over a 40-year period are expected to exceed 10%. As for Australia, Ireland, Spain, the Republic of Korea, New Zealand and the United States, on the contrary, their population will increase by more than 15%. And this is just evidence of the limited explanatory and prognostic potential of the mentioned theory and the corresponding inertial forecasts. In this regard, the trend, which is increasingly clearly manifested in developed countries, to increase the retirement age, stimulate financial preparation for old age through the development of non-state pension systems and personal insurance, and revise the state policy in the field of employment seems natural (Table 1).
Since a significant proportion of older people are in reasonable health and ability to work, they can continue to work. To apply their experience and knowledge, it will be necessary to have a sufficient number of jobs adapted for them, as well as attractive economic, organizational and financial conditions for the continuation of their work activities. It should be noted that in the last 25 years in industrialized countries, many workers have been forced into early retirement before the age of 60 years. At the same time, it must be admitted that this approach found a positive response from many workers who were happy to switch to a “well-deserved rest”. If the process of population aging leads to a revision of this model of labor regulation and forces employers to create more attractive employment conditions for older workers, then in the long term, new forms of working life extension may become an important area of social policy and labor market regulation. In addition, it will be necessary to solve a complex of other problems related to the system of social security and support for older citizens, including the development of a number of social and medical sciences, designed to develop effective practical recommendations in the field of social gerontology and the psychology of old age. The process of increasing the number of older people in the general population requires a comprehensive consideration of their specific needs as a special category of citizens. In particular, access to
older people to health and social services. The need for adequate social services for the elderly implies an expansion of the network of social institutions for long-term care, as well as care within the family, which will lead to an increase in the corresponding social costs and an increase in the unpaid burden on women. In addition, experts note a higher level of needs of older people for medical services and medicines. A study in Mexico found that people aged 65 and over use health services twice as often as the general population and account for a third of total service costs.
Position of international organizations
Fundamental shifts in the demographic structure of the world's population prompted the UN to form a system of views on the problem of population aging, defining policies for the benefit of older people and protecting their rights. This system is based on universal humanitarian norms and serves as a rationale for the implementation of measures in support of older people at the international and national levels. It is based on the idea of a harmonious combination of the full participation of older people in society and care for them, meeting their needs and realizing their potential. Recognition of authority, wisdom and dignity, which are acquired with life experience, has been a traditional element of the attitude towards the elderly throughout the history of mankind. Older people are considered by the humanistic world community as a positive "factor" in the process of social development, and not a burden. Respect for the elderly and care for them has always and everywhere been one of the few unchanged qualitative characteristics of our civilization, which to a large extent determined the survival and progress of mankind. Targets for organizing activities for older people are reflected in the International Plan of Action on Aging (1982), the Global Goals on Aging to 2001 (1992), the European Social Charter (1961) and the Additional Protocol to it (1988), in the ILO conventions and recommendations, the Declaration and Program of Action of the World Summit for Social Development (Copenhagen, 1995).
The most complete expression of the views on the place and role of older people was received in the UN Principles “Make life full of life for the elderly”, adopted by the 46th UN General Assembly on December 16, 1991. Taking into account later additions, 18 principles are grouped into five groups: independence, participation , care, realization of inner potential, dignity. The principles of the “independence” group imply that older people should have access to basic goods and services, the opportunity to work or engage in other income-generating activities, to participate in determining the timing of the termination of employment, to remain able to participate in education and training programs, to live in safe conditions, taking into account personal inclinations and changing conditions, receive assistance in living at home for as long as possible. The principles of the “participation” group reflect the issues of the involvement of older people in society and active participation in the development and implementation of policies affecting their well-being, the ability to create movements or associations of older people. The care group principles address issues of family and community care and protection, access to health care to maintain or restore optimum physical, mental and emotional well-being and disease prevention, access to social and legal services, use of care institutions and mandatory observance in social institutions of human rights and fundamental freedoms, including full respect for dignity, beliefs, needs and privacy, as well as the right to make decisions regarding care and quality of life. The principles of the “realization of internal potential” group call for older people to have opportunities for the full realization of their potential, so that they always have access to public values in the field of education, culture, spiritual life and recreation.
The principles of the "dignity" group address issues of preventing exploitation, physical or psychological abuse of older people, ensuring their right to fair treatment regardless of age, gender, race or ethnicity, disability or other status, and regardless of previous economic contribution. Enshrining a special status for older people, the UN principles are essentially a set of ethical norms and guidelines for setting priorities in relation to the older population. For state and public structures, they are an important guide to the future in interpreting the social needs of older people and in organizing activities to meet them. The great respect of the international community for the older generation is evidenced by the establishment of the annual International Day of Older Persons (October 1) and the observance of the International Year of Older Persons in 1999 “... as a sign of recognition of the demographic entry of mankind into maturity and the prospects that it opens up for development of more mature ideas and possibilities in social, economic, cultural and spiritual life - not least in the interests of world peace and development in the next century. The theme of the International Year - "Towards a society for people of all ages" - was based on the concept of "a society for all people", based on respect for human rights and freedoms, cultural and religious diversity, social justice, democratic participation and the rule of law. The purpose of building such a society is connected with the reflection in the social content of economic policy of the needs and opportunities of all citizens, bringing social structures and practical social activities in line with it. The role of the older population, which is one of the main objects of social policy today and in the long term, prompted the UN to complement the idea of a "society for all" with the idea of a "society for people of all ages".
The meaning of this conceptual setting lies in inter-age social solidarity, whether at the level of the family, community or country.
At the same time, social solidarity is understood as the fact that older citizens are aware of their social responsibility, contribute to the functioning of society, participate in public life and are respected. In addition, the organization of society on the principles of social solidarity implies the distribution of public goods in a fair and humane manner in order to give every elderly citizen, as a member of society, the right to social and economic dignity. The Madrid International Plan of Action on Ageing, adopted in Madrid in April 2002, marked a milestone in shaping an aging-related strategy.
It presents current trends in the growth of the number of older people by groups of countries and continents, reveals the socio-economic consequences of this phenomenon, outlines the basic principles of the world community for policy in the field of attitudes towards older people on a wide range of socio-economic, medical and educational issues. Suffice it to say that this document reflects 18 large groups of issues on 11 topics, which serve as a methodological basis for organizing work in this area at the international and national levels. An in-depth analysis of the processes of population aging makes it possible to see the problem nodes in the economic and social contexts, and the proposed recommendations can serve as a basis for developing action programs taking into account the significant specifics in specific countries. The goal of the International Plan of Action is to ensure that older people around the world can live in safety and dignity and continue to participate in society as full citizens.
The recommendations contained in this document include three priority areas: the participation of older people in the development of the country; provision of health services and well-being in old age; creation of favorable and positive conditions for people of all age groups. The implementation of the International Plan of Action on Aging naturally implies the development of appropriate national action programs based on the concepts of political, economic, ethical, spiritual and social development of older people, which are based on such principles as human dignity, human rights, equality, respect, peace , democracy, mutual responsibility, cooperation and respect for different religious and ethical values, as well as the cultural identity of people.
In connection with the entry into retirement age of relatively small generations born in the postwar years, in the next three to four years, the proportion of people of retirement age will remain at the level of 20.7%. However, by 2016, due to low birth rates and an increase in life expectancy, the proportion of older people in the population structure in the inertial forecast will reach a quarter of its total number (24.9%). Against the background of the projected decline in the number of able-bodied population starting from 2008, the demographic load (dependence) coefficient will increase mainly at the expense of people of retirement age. The gradual process of aging of the Russian population is aggravated by the rapid depopulation of the country's population, which is in the nature of an increasing decline. Thus, according to the data of the Federal State Statistics Service, between the last population censuses (1989 and 2002), the overall mortality rates in the country increased by 1.5 times, while the birth rate decreased by 1.4 times; population decreased by 1.8 million people. Moreover, during this period, 20.5 million people were born, and 27.9 million people died, 11 million people arrived in the country from abroad, 5.4 million people left it. Thus, the natural population decline (the difference between deaths and births) amounted to 7.4 million people; migration growth (the difference between arrivals and departures) - 5.6 million people - compensated for 76% of the natural loss. Over the past 13 years, 290 cities, 11 thousand villages have ceased to exist in Russia, another 13 thousand villages are close to the fact that soon there will not be a single person left in them. In terms of the scale of losses, the post-Soviet demographic crisis is comparable to the Great Patriotic War of 1941–1945.
It is no coincidence that the American report “Depopulated Russia” indicates, with reference to a UN study, that Russia is on the verge of demographic death.
Thus, Russia is in a state of demographic catastrophe, there is a natural “depopulation”, which in everyday language sounds like a harsh statement: the people are dying out.
To change the situation, large-scale long-term measures on a national scale are required to “save the population” and a sharp, multiple increase in the birth rate. Is it possible to radically change the described picture of the demographic crisis in Russia? Yes, it's possible. The paper identifies the main factors that are specifically important in the Russian case. They are, in order of importance, related to the ideological and spiritual state of Russian society, the civilizational identity of Russian statehood, the quality of state policy as a management practice, and the material conditions of life. A new state demographic policy has been developed, which, if implemented, can significantly change the Russian demographic process. Today, many regions of Russia are experiencing an acute shortage of workers, the economic burden on the employed population is increasing, and there is a need to allocate additional funds for medical and social assistance to the elderly. Moreover, in the inertial process, it is not necessary to count on the mitigation of these phenomena in the coming years (Table 2).
In the near future, the country will not have enough soldiers or workers. The easiest way is to count on the fact that thanks to the influx of migrants, this “deficit” will be overcome. It is much more difficult to stimulate the birth rate, to ensure the preservation of health, but it is possible. According to the World Bank experts, the share of human capital in the structure of the national wealth of the leading countries of the world is 68-76%. The effectiveness of its development and use depends on the quality of life, the general indicator of which is the human development index - HDI. According to experts from the UN Development Programs (comparative studies were conducted for 174 countries), Russia ranks 71st in this index, and in terms of the health and well-being of citizens, it belongs to the category of developing countries. There is a fairly close relationship between population health potential and economic growth. Thus, according to the calculations of a number of experts, the economic damage from the loss of health of Russians in 1999 amounted to about 65 billion dollars. It is obvious that such losses weaken the country, becoming a threat to its national security. Thus, the current demographic situation, especially if the current level of mortality among people of working age persists, in a fairly short period of time can lead to a real shortage of labor resources, which will become a serious obstacle to the socio-economic development of the country. The “graying population” is a full-fledged part of society that has made an invaluable contribution to the formation of the environment (in the broadest sense) in which we all live.
Unfortunately, it cannot yet be said that the conditions for a decent life for Russian pensioners have been created: the size of pensions is depressingly low and does not make it possible to provide a significant part of the elderly with at least a relatively acceptable standard of living.
A radical revision of the position of the state in relation to citizens, which seems to be an urgent need, involves not only strengthening its protective functions in relation to them, but also involving the latter in vigorous activity, taking into account their age characteristics. It is short-sighted to ignore the experience, intellectual and professional potential of this category of people. State social policy in relation to citizens of the older generation should take into account the gender problems of widowhood to a greater extent and provide for social measures that reduce its severity. It is necessary to strengthen the purposeful interaction of public authorities and local governments with public associations, especially charitable ones. World experience shows that assistance to such organizations in providing services to senior citizens, protecting their rights and interests, and increasing social activity is very effective.
The fundamental positions of the policy pursued by the state in relation to citizens of the older generation could be: strengthening their legal protection by enshrining in the current legislation special norms that contribute to the implementation of constitutional guarantees, the implementation of comprehensive measures to provide legal and other protection for older people who find themselves in difficult life situations , the creation of social advocacy and social courts; ensuring a decent standard of living for the elderly by maintaining a guaranteed subsistence level and income, which would allow them to satisfy their vital needs, improve the quality of life, regardless of belonging to any status category, region of residence and other conditions; promotion of the role of the family in the care of the elderly, economic, social and psychological support for families caring for elderly relatives, especially low-income families and elderly couples, taking into account gender differences in the provision of assistance and social services; organization of effective social services for lonely elderly people; assistance in providing the elderly with decent housing in accordance with the minimum state standards that meet the physical capabilities and the specifics of their lifestyle by modernizing, reconstructing and repairing houses and apartments, designing and building new types of housing, improving environmental living conditions and creating conditions for active recreation; optimization of the network and development of the material and technical base of institutions serving the elderly in various sectors of the social sphere, the creation of a system of independent control over the provision of assistance and services; promotion of feasible employment of older people and strict observance of guarantees in terms of satisfactory conditions and wages, prevention of injuries and prevention of occupational diseases, non-admission of age discrimination in employment, ensuring equal access of older people to programs and systems of vocational guidance, training and retraining; providing support to elderly people who are in a disadvantaged situation, first of all, single citizens and elderly couples who have lost the ability to self-service, seriously ill elderly people, single elderly women, residents of remote areas of the countryside, the Far North and areas equivalent to them, forced migrants, persons without a fixed place of residence; organization of effective psychological assistance to the elderly, including preparation for a change in social status and retirement, adaptation to deteriorating health, reduced ability to work, loss of loved ones, loneliness, psychological assistance in overcoming stressful and conflict situations, including in the family; ensuring that older people have access to information about the measures taken to improve their legal, economic and social situation, about the activities of state authorities and local governments to protect the interests of the elderly and social institutions in terms of providing services to older people.
It is important to strengthen the equal partnership of public authorities, local self-government with public associations, especially charitable ones. Assistance should be provided to public associations in their activities to provide services to older citizens, protect their rights and interests, increase social activity, and create associations of older people for the best integration of older citizens into the process of social development. It would be expedient to create state-public bodies at the federal and regional levels, coordinating the activities of federal executive bodies, executive bodies of constituent entities of the Russian Federation, enterprises and organizations, public associations and individuals to provide support to citizens of older generations.
Fragments of the 3rd chapter of the monograph "".
The Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the UN Secretariat presented an annual report on the world demographic situation and its development prospects. It is important for a conscious person to know what the world will be like in 20, 30, 40 years. The 10 most important facts from the UN report will help you figure it out.
1. By 2050, the world's population may reach 10 billion people
In July 2015, the world population was 7.3 billion. In 2016, the number of inhabitants of the planet, according to the forecast, will grow by another 86 million people, and by 2030 it may reach 8.5 billion. It is highly likely that by 2050 the world's population will be from 9.4 billion to 10 billion people.
2. Global average life expectancy is on the rise
From 2010 to 2015 The average life expectancy in the world has increased from 67 to 70 years. In Africa, people live up to about 60 years, in Asia - up to 72, in Latin America - up to 75, in Europe - up to 77, in North America - up to 79. By 2100, the average life expectancy on the planet will increase to 83 years.
3. The rate of aging of the world's population is growing
In 2015, 12% of the world's population was over 60 years old. This figure is growing annually by 3.26%. In Europe, every fourth person is over 60 years of age. According to the forecast, by 2050 there will be 2.1 billion people over the age of 60 in the world, which is about 20% of the expected population.
4. The total fertility rate is declining in the world. It only increases in Europe
Although the birth rate is declining in Asia and Africa, it is still sufficient for natural population growth. Countries with a low ratio are those with 2.1 children or fewer per woman. This situation is observed in North America and Europe.
Region |
2005-2010 |
2010-2015 |
Number of children per woman |
Number of children per woman |
|
Africa |
||
Asia |
||
North America |
1,86 |
|
Europe |
1,55 |
Until 2100, on average, women in the world will give birth to no more than 2 children.
5. The average age of the inhabitant of the planet is increasing
An increase in this indicator indicates the aging of mankind as a whole. In 2015, the average age of a person on the planet was 30 years. But according to long-term forecasts, it will increase to 36 years by 2050 and to 42 years by 2100. For example, in 2015, the average age of a European was 42, and by 2050, a European is expected to “grow up” to 46 years.
6. Population is declining in Europe
The European population is projected to decline by more than 15% by 2050. A decrease in the number of residents is expected in countries such as Ukraine, Bulgaria, Hungary, Croatia, Lithuania, Latvia and Serbia. In Europe, the total fertility rate will increase from 1.6 to 1.8 children per woman by 2050, but this will not change the downward trend in the population. In Ukraine, the total fertility rate in 2015 was 1.5 children per woman, which is below the level required for natural movement in the long term (about 2.1 children per woman).
7. Africa is the fastest growing region in the world in terms of population
In 2010-2015 Africa has recorded the world's highest population growth rate of 2.55% annually. With such indicators from 2015 to 2050. its population will increase by 1.3 billion people. This is a significant figure if we take into account that the total population of the planet by 2050 will increase by 2.1-2.7 billion people.
8. India will overtake China in terms of population
As of 2015, China is considered the most populous country on the planet, and its inhabitants make up 19% of the world's population. There are 1.38 billion people in China today. According to the forecasts of the UN Population Division, their number will not change significantly by 2030, and even slightly decrease in the next 20 years. In India, 1.31 billion people were registered in 2015, which is slightly less than 18% of the world's population. The growth rate of the number of its inhabitants suggests that already in 2030 there will be 1.5 billion of them, and in 2050 - about 1.7 billion people.
9. In the next 35 years, the largest population growth is expected in poor countries
Between 2015 and 2050, half of the world's natural population growth will occur in 9 countries: India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, United Republic of Tanzania, Indonesia, Afghanistan, Uganda. These are the countries with the highest birth rates. For example, Nigeria is projected to outnumber the United States by 2050.
10. The number of men and women in the world is about the same
In 2015, there were 102 men for every 100 women in the world. This study covers all age groups. The countries with the highest ratio of men per 100 women are: UAE - 274, Qatar - 265, Bahrain - 163. Lithuania and Latvia have the fewest men per hundred women - 85. In Ukraine, for example, there are 86 men per 100 women .
The full version of the study can be viewed.