Euro exchange rate forecast for the near and distant future. Euro exchange rate forecast for the near and distant future The value of the European currency by month

Financial experts believe that by the end of 2018 the euro currency will fall against the dollar to $1.12. From January 2019, the euro exchange rate will begin to grow slowly, this is the opinion of many analysts. Until this moment, the ruble was considered in the financial market, but now experts are more inclined towards the euro.

An increase in the exchange rate of the euro or dollar to 100 rubles is unlikely. Predisposing factors to the instability of the foreign exchange market are the economic relations between the EU, the USA and Russia.

The Eurozone currently experiences low inflation and economic growth. The issue of the possible introduction of non-standard measures by the ECB, which will help combat the deflationary threat, is now being decided.

Based on Forbes data, at the end of August 2018, the euro weakened its position against the dollar by 9-10%. The indicators of US trade policy make experts skeptical. Many countries are involved in negotiations on the use of national currencies and bypassing the dollar.

In practice, it is clear that such proposals cannot be implemented. The dollar occupies a strong position against the euro and the ruble, which will begin to strengthen its position after the Russian economy stabilizes.

The euro does not “suffer” as much from military operations in the Middle East as the dollar and ruble. Any actions in the economic market entail a number of consequences that are not beneficial for countries.

Donald Trump, after restricting the import of cars from Europe, received a boycott of American agricultural products on the European market in retaliation.

Due to sanctions and various restrictions, internal tension in the European market is increasing.

Expert opinion on the euro exchange rate in 2018

According to analysts, at the moment it is difficult to say in which currency it is best to keep cash savings. Now most Russians earn in rubles. Experts advise spending them rather than converting them into any foreign currency.

Due to economic weakness in many regions, the euro is expected to remain under pressure in early 2019. Dynamic growth of the European currency is unlikely. At the moment, the euro is considered a common replacement for the dollar; without the euro currency, it will be difficult to maintain global balance in the foreign exchange market.

The fate of the euro will depend on the actions of the ECB. If he changes the easing program, the European economy will be stimulated. By the end of 2018, the euro will cost 79.69 rubles or $1.148.

There is a low probability that the euro will strengthen its position against the dollar in 2018. From January 2019, the European currency may rise, but only slightly.

In times of crisis, counterfeit banknotes often appear on the market. A distinctive feature of the euro is the 11-digit serial number, to which another letter is added.

When replacing a letter with its serial number in the Latin alphabet and adding the resulting numbers with the rest, the number 8 should come out. Only in this case is the bill genuine.

There is another way to check. The numbers and letter will correspond to the country where the bill was printed. If the result is X2, then the bill comes from Germany.

Forecasting the euro exchange rate is mostly guesswork that is based on generally known facts. In fact, anyone can make their own forecast and, frankly, it will differ little in accuracy from the same data voiced by venerable specialists/experts/financiers. The information provided below is for informational purposes only. We cannot be held responsible for what is said, because we do not know how to look into the future. It's a pity.

Forecast for the euro/dollar pair for today

The only thing we can say for sure is the forecast for the euro exchange rate for today. As of 13:00 on 09/06/2018, the euro was worth 79.36, which is slightly less than, for example, yesterday. It is noteworthy that the direction of movement is different from that shown by the dollar. As a consequence, these are not features of the domestic ruble, but features of foreign currency itself.

In this case there can be two options:

• The US dollar is strengthening against the euro.
• The euro falls against the US dollar.

In fact, the result is the same, but the cause-and-effect relationships are different. Nevertheless, in general, judging by the existing forecasts for the euro-dollar exchange rate, their general movement is still the same. As evidence, we offer two charts for forecasting the euro-dollar exchange rate:

Euro forecast for tomorrow

According to preliminary data, which can be checked tomorrow, the euro exchange rate will fall even more and drop to the level it showed on September 3, 2018. Presumably this is due to an increase in oil production. On the one hand, this makes oil become cheaper, on the other hand, cheapness is, firstly, a relative concept, and secondly, temporary. Prices will still skyrocket, since raw materials are finite in our world and therefore their cost cannot be low in principle. How long the temporary price reduction will last is another matter.

Euro forecast for the week

Over the coming week, the euro exchange rate will be significantly influenced by the same increase in oil production. In addition, in the near future, the dollar will strengthen for some time due to the ruble, which will automatically hit the euro and cause it to lose some ground. Presumably, in a week the euro exchange rate will fall even more. Unfortunately, at this stage it is not possible to forecast the euro exchange rate by day with more or less high accuracy.

Euro forecast for September 2018

Despite the relatively positive short-term forecast for the euro exchange rate, in general, in August and further in September 2018, the exchange rate will only increase. At this stage, given the complete unpredictability of the ruble, it is too early to say anything concrete, but all the prerequisites, as well as the history of the “relationship” between the euro and the ruble literally scream about this.

The first thing that deserves attention is the US government's release from vacation. As has long been noted, the higher the dollar exchange rate, the lower the euro exchange rate and vice versa. As a result, its movement will be affected by the decisions made. Presumably, the next sanctions will be adopted, which will further collapse the ruble, which, without any action on the part of the European currency, will lead to an increase in the exchange rate.

Euro forecast for October 2018

The euro exchange rate largely depends on political decisions. Moreover, issued not only by the government of the European Union, but also accepted by the United States. Thus, it is almost impossible to say anything unambiguously. Nevertheless, according to most analysts, despite the active growth of the dollar and euro against the ruble in September, starting from October and continuing until the end of the year, there will be a slow but steady decline.

But there is another point of view. Some experts believe that the exchange rate, on the contrary, will only increase and will not stop until the summer of 2019. Statistics show the same thing. For example, it has long been known that in most cases the currency almost literally repeats the fluctuations of the previous year. And in 2017, it was during this period that significant growth occurred:

Euro forecast for November 2018

Presumably, since this cannot be said for sure, the euro exchange rate may rise in November 2018, but it is unlikely to be serious. According to other sources, it will even fall, but there are no prerequisites for this yet. Short-term stagnation can be taken as a basis.

From this point of view, this currency will not be the most successful option for trading. The absence of more or less accurate forecasts for the long term will not allow working according to the trend. As a result, it will be possible to make money on the stock exchange only by working on its reversal or only when the main direction of movement is determined.

Euro forecast for December 2018

December, if we consider the situation in the context of previous years, will begin with the fall of the euro. Presumably, the currency could fall by 10 points or even more. However, closer to the middle of the month there will be a sharp upward surge due to traditional pre-New Year purchases and active consumer growth. And by the end of the month there will be a decline again, against the backdrop of the subsidence of any activity at the end of the year.

As mentioned above, this currency is not the best option for trading in this period. If you want to make money, then you should contact the innovative IT company using the form on the right and trade the asset extremely carefully, with special emphasis on news. Here is an example of how the currency behaved in the same period last year:

Euro forecast for 2018

In general, based on what we see now, the euro exchange rate, after the short-term fall observed now, will most likely increase significantly in the near future, after which it will begin a slow, gradual decline, which, towards the end of 2018, will lead to its return to current values. moment of positions.

Euro forecast for 2019

It is still impossible to make any clear forecasts for next year due to the fact that it is not known how relations between the EU countries and its relations with the United States and Russia will develop. For example, if the problem of migrants in the EU goes to the next stage, we can expect a fall in the exchange rate, since the economies of the countries may simply not be able to withstand it.

In addition, over the past few months the European Union has been striving to pursue its own policy, independent of the United States. It turns out very badly so far, but there is such a trend and it is likely that it will only develop in the future. Therefore, according to preliminary forecasts, in the first months of 2019, the Euro exchange rate will show fairly strong growth, which will reach its maximum in April-May 2019.

After this, the US dollar will take first place, which will automatically have a negative impact on the euro exchange rate and, starting in the spring of 2019, we will be able to observe a gradual, slow, but very confident decline. Here is an example of a table with preliminary calculations of the euro exchange rate for 2019:

Conclusion

It is very difficult to make a reliable forecast of the euro, since it is a very specific currency, which is influenced not only by the foreign policy situation, but also by the relationships between the participating countries. In addition, the dollar also has a significant impact. Therefore, it is recommended to first focus on the dollar and only then look at how its rise or fall affects the euro.

Due to the fact that the dollar and euro exchange rates have not been stable in our country over the past few years, every year Russians try to guess how much the currency will cost in the near future. Unfortunately, contrary to the opinion of many analysts, the Russian economy continues to be thrown from side to side, the reason for this is still unresolved sanctions of Western countries, the political crisis, the military conflict in Ukraine and Syria and the decline in the global economy - all this to one degree or another affects exchange rates. The current year 2017 has just begun, and many are already interested in what the forecast for the exchange rate of the euro and dollar is for 2018 in Russia, because the people, despite any age, are tired of the constant fluctuation of currencies, the whole country is looking with hope into the next period. So, what's the latest news?

Reasons for the fall of the Russian currency

Before providing a fresh forecast for next year, it is necessary to understand why there has been no stable euro-ruble exchange rate for several years now. What influences the current situation? And for what reason is the euro constantly sinking against the American currency?

Of course, an accurate forecast will appear only by the beginning of 2018, but for now we can only talk about the reasons for the fluctuation. First, let’s answer why the difference between the dollar and the euro has decreased so much? To a greater extent, the euro exchange rate is influenced by the economic and political situation in the European Union itself. Not everything is calm in both areas. On the one hand, the recent secession from Great Britain, popular unrest in other European countries, and, on the other hand, the crisis with refugees from the Middle East, for whose maintenance fabulous sums are spent from the pockets of taxpayers. Basically, these are the reasons that influence the euro and the fact that the difference between the dollar and the European currency is rapidly shrinking. By the way, recent news says that many experts are of the opinion that the European Union will exist for no more than 5 years, then inevitable collapse will follow, there are too many “in old Europe” who are dissatisfied with the policies of the current authorities.

And if in the near future at least one more country leaves the union, then there is a possibility that the euro will become worth less than the dollar.

As for the exchange rate of the dollar and euro in relation to our currency, there is no positive dynamics here either. Sanctions from Western countries have not yet been lifted, the Russian food embargo continues to operate, and prices for “black gold” remain at $50 per barrel. Unfortunately, based on this state of affairs, most likely the exchange rate in 2018 will also be unstable; the only thing that, according to analysts, is worth expecting: the ruble will not sink so much against the euro and dollar.

Government forecast

The Russian Government is already making forecasts for the euro and dollar exchange rates for 2018. What will happen to the European currency in 2018? The forecast for this year is quite positive. The authorities predict that next year the ruble will continue to strengthen and will show positive dynamics throughout the entire period. The exchange rate will be as follows: the euro will not exceed the level of 45-50 rubles throughout 2018, and the dollar will stop at around 35-38 rubles.

True, there is also a more pessimistic forecast for exchange rates for the future period, because the Russian treasury is on the verge of depletion, reserve funds are also coming to an end, Western countries plan not only to maintain sanctions, but also to tighten them. Therefore, some officials believe that the forecast for the new year will not be so rosy: the euro will exceed the 85 ruble mark, and the dollar will approach the 80 ruble line. Whether the euro will grow against the ruble or not will be known for sure by the end of this year.

Experts' opinion

Some experts have now compiled their euro forecast for the months of 2018. In January and February, the European currency is expected to jump to 68-70 rubles, and at the end of the year the ruble will strengthen. By the way, the predicted data is more than 75-80% accurate; let’s hope that stability returns to the Russian economy.

Now let’s look at the forecasts for the euro exchange rate in 2018 in more detail; the graph of currency fluctuations is as follows:

• January - there is a sharp jump in the euro to 68 rubles;
• February - the euro continues to rise to 70 rubles;
• in March, the European currency may add about 2 more rubles and amount to about 72 rubles;
• April will be marked by the growth of the Russian currency, the ruble will win back as much as 4 points;
• in May the European currency will decrease by another 2 rubles and the rate will be 66 rubles;
• June will show an even greater decline in the euro to 63 rubles;
• in July the ruble will strengthen by another 1 point;
• in August the European currency will increase by 50 kopecks;
• in September, the Russian currency will increase by 2 points and amount to 60.50 rubles;
• in October the euro will fall by another 1 point;
• in November the euro plans to see its biggest decline - to 55.50 rubles;
• the end of the year will be marked by the strengthening of our currency by another 2.50 points, and the euro will be 53 rubles.

As you can see, the euro forecast from analysts is quite optimistic, and the increase in the value of foreign currency will occur only at the beginning of next year. It is worth noting that this picture is approximate; throughout the year, various situations may occur that will significantly affect the exchange rate in our country. However, we hope that we will enter the next year with the brightest prospects: sanctions will finally be lifted, the Russian economy will begin to develop, and the people will breathe a sigh of relief.

Due to the fact that the situation on the Russian foreign exchange market is constantly changing, Russians are trying to collect all available information about what the exchange rate will be in the near future. The situation with the ruble is more or less clear, but the euro forecast for 2018 remains quite vague, so it is worth talking about in more detail.

Initially, it is necessary to emphasize that any forecast regarding exchange rates cannot be considered one hundred percent correct, because the situation in this area of ​​government activity is constantly changing, therefore, analysts’ data must simply be taken into account, but be aware that they can change.

Today, the difference between the exchange rates of American and European currencies has greatly decreased, although before the crisis the second was noticeably more expensive than the first. Experts found the answer to this question and said that the European Community was to blame. The economic and political situation in the EU leaves much to be desired, and it is aggravated by the fact that Great Britain recently left the union, popular unrest continues, and the European Union spends huge amounts of money on the financial support of refugees from the countries of the Middle East. All the reasons described above also influence the euro forecast for 2018 for Russia, and they also reduce the difference between the European and American currencies.

The European Union, according to the latest assumptions of experts, will exist for no more than five years, after which the community will certainly fall apart, because today a large number of people are dissatisfied with the policies of the European authorities. Moreover, if at least one more country leaves the EU, the price of the euro may even become much lower than the dollar.

The official forecast for the euro-dollar pair for 2018 in the Russian Federation depends on the impact of Western sanctions on the economy, because the industrial embargo is still in force and remains at an extremely low level (at best, a barrel will cost about $50, however in fact, the cost of this resource will be at an extremely low level). In general, most experts say that it will be extremely unstable, and the only relatively stable position will be that a serious subsidence of the euro against the dollar is not planned for 2018.

What figures are the government reporting?

Modern experts practically do not give the public positive forecasts, because today the country has only just begun to overcome the crisis, which means the country is now going through a period of active reform, and making predictions in such a situation is extremely difficult. Traditionally, experts make several versions of forecasts, and if you believe the optimistic one, then for one euro in 2018 you will need to pay approximately 40-45 rubles. It is impossible not to notice that if the forecast for the euro exchange rate for 2018 in Russia with similar figures turns out to be true, then the dollar will cost about 30 rubles, and it is quite difficult to believe in such a development of events, because this is precisely the currency ratio observed in the pre-crisis period, and achieving such a level today seems almost unrealistic.

In general, the forecast for the euro exchange rate for 2018 in Russia, the latest news about which worries the public so much, can be considered relatively neutral, because if it changes relative to the level of 2017, then these changes will not affect people too much. Of course, the economy will recover for a long time, but if the crisis does not start again (which the authorities will definitely try to prevent), then Russians will not have to worry about this either, which means the exchange rate in the country will gradually normalize and will no longer scare anyone .

Euro(English Euro) is the official currency of 19 countries of the Eurozone (Austria, Belgium, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Finland, France, Estonia). The euro is also the national currency of 9 other countries, 7 of which are located in Europe. However, unlike eurozone participants, these countries cannot influence the monetary policy of the European Central Bank and send their representatives to its governing bodies. Thus, the euro is the common currency for more than 340 million Europeans. As of November 2013, there were 951 billion euros in cash circulation, making this currency the owner of the highest total value of cash circulating around the world, ahead of the US dollar in this indicator.

1 euro is equal to 100 cents (or eurocents). Banknote denominations in circulation: 500, 200, 100, 50, 20, 10 and 5 euros. Coins: 2 and 1 euro, 50, 20, 10, 5, 2 and 1 cent. The name of the currency comes from the word “Europe”.

Eurocurrency is printed by central banks that are members of the European System of Central Banks. All issued banknotes have one standard design. The front side depicts windows, gates, bridges - as symbols of openness and interconnection. They are made in the form of typical examples of the main styles of European architecture: classical, Romanesque, Gothic, Renaissance, Baroque and Rococo, “metal and glass”, Art Nouveau. At the same time, euro banknotes differ in color palette: 500 are purple, 200 are yellow, 100 are green, 50 are orange, 20 are blue, 10 are red, and 5 are gray.

Unlike banknotes, coins only have a common front side, on which the denomination is placed against the background of a symbolic map of Europe. The reverse side is considered “national” - each issuing central bank has its own for each denomination.

Despite the fact that the non-cash euro was officially introduced on January 1, 1999, and cash was issued on January 1, 2002, the history of the single European currency is older. Before the euro appeared, from 1979 to 1998, the European currency system used the ECU (European Currency Unit), which was a conventional basket of national currencies of a number of countries. The ECU was subsequently exchanged for euros at a one-to-one rate.

Trading in the euro on the international foreign exchange market officially began on January 4, 1999. In order to relieve investors from currency risks, quotations of national currencies were fixed. Thus, the exchange rate of the German mark was 1.95583 per euro, the French franc - 6.55957, and the Italian lira - 1,936.21. At the same time, the initial exchange rate of the euro against the dollar was determined at approximately $1.17.

During 1999, the euro quotes steadily declined, eventually reaching the so-called parity - the equality of 1 euro and 1 dollar. At the end of September 2000, the European Central Bank, the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and a number of European banks conducted a joint intervention in support of the single euro currency. However, this did not prevent it from reaching an absolute historical minimum, which amounted to $0.8230 per euro in October 2000.

It was recognized that a further decline in the single currency could harm the European economy. At the same time, by the end of 2000, in order to cope with the upcoming recession, the US Federal Reserve set a course for easing monetary policy, cutting, in particular, the discount rate to 2%. Since interest rates were higher in Europe, the euro became more attractive for investment than the dollar. In addition, in 2001, the American economy experienced a shock caused by the September 11 terrorist attack. By the end of the year, the euro was trading at 0.96 per dollar, and by July 2002 it had returned to parity. It finally became more expensive than the dollar after December 6 of the same year. And in 2003, it began to confidently grow in price against the backdrop of the US entry into the war in Iraq.

The rate reached its initial value of 1.1736, recorded on the first trading day, on May 23, 2003, and its absolute maximum - 1.5990 - in 2008. This became possible due to the global financial crisis, which this time originated in the financial system of the United States. Economists believe that the euro's strength was due mainly to the weakness of the American economy, and not to the strength of the European one. This assumption is also supported by the fact that the aggravation of problems in the eurozone subsequently led to a stop in the growth of currency quotes. In the summer of 2011, the euro exchange rate fluctuates between 1.41 and 1.45 dollars.

Nevertheless, during its existence, the euro confidently took second place in the world in terms of government reserves. This is due to the fact that the total gross domestic product of the countries included in the eurozone exceeds even the GDP of the United States, which ranks first in the world.

The euro/dollar currency pair is the most traded on the Forex market and financial derivatives - futures. Today, Europe represents a real alternative to the United States in terms of investment opportunities. At the same time, the choice of investors is influenced primarily by a comparison of macroeconomic indicators of the two regions, such as the inflation rate, prevailing interest rates, GDP, trade balance, etc.

At the same time, the biggest problem of the euro area remains the difference in the level of the economies of the participating countries. The strongest are Germany, Italy, and France. Those experiencing difficulties include Greece, Ireland and a number of others.

For Russian investors, the euro is traditionally interesting as an alternative to the American dollar. The European currency is used to diversify risks associated with exchange rates, and as an independent investment direction during times of rising quotes.

In addition, it should be borne in mind that it is more profitable to make payments in euro zone member countries using debit or credit cards in this currency in order to avoid unnecessary conversion.