What are the forecasts for the dollar exchange rate. Dynamics of the us dollar exchange rate
Keep in mind that the exchange rates set by the central bank do not change on weekends! In the table below you can see the dollar and euro exchange rates for today, tomorrow and a week ahead. If you are interested in the future fate of currencies, follow the news and track quotes updates.
Dollar rate | Euro exchange rate | Ruble's exchange rate | |
---|---|---|---|
There will be an official course for 09/11/2019 (we will find out through 18 hours) |
? | ? | ? |
Current official rate as of 09/10/2019 the most favorable rates in banks |
65.5698 -43 kopecks. |
72.3300 -56 kopecks |
significantly increased in price + 0.7% |
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From the moment the last official rate was determined on 09/10/2019 | dropped insignificantly -3 kopecks |
grew a little +9 kopecks |
fell slightly -0.03% (oil during this time: |
In the last hour | increased slightly +4 kopecks |
increased slightly +6 kopecks |
dropped insignificantly -0.07% |
Current exchange rate on InstaForex exchange
Forecast of the dollar and euro for a month
Exchange Rates Forecast for August | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
the date | Day of week | Course | Max. | Min. | Course | Max. | Min. |
07.08.2019 | wednesday | 65.75 | 66.74 | 64.76 | 74.49 | 75.61 | 73.37 |
08.08.2019 | thursday | 66.90 | 67.90 | 65.90 | 76.00 | 77.14 | 74.86 |
09.08.2019 | friday | 67.48 | 68.49 | 66.47 | 76.72 | 77.87 | 75.57 |
12.08.2019 | monday | 67.56 | 68.57 | 66.55 | 76.24 | 77.38 | 75.10 |
13.08.2019 | tuesday | 67.69 | 68.71 | 66.67 | 76.45 | 77.60 | 75.30 |
14.08.2019 | wednesday | 68.12 | 69.14 | 67.10 | 77.06 | 78.22 | 75.90 |
15.08.2019 | thursday | 67.96 | 68.98 | 66.94 | 76.74 | 77.89 | 75.59 |
16.08.2019 | friday | 67.86 | 68.88 | 66.84 | 76.66 | 77.81 | 75.51 |
19.08.2019 | monday | 67.92 | 68.94 | 66.90 | 76.67 | 77.82 | 75.52 |
20.08.2019 | tuesday | 68.09 | 69.11 | 67.07 | 76.47 | 77.62 | 75.32 |
21.08.2019 | wednesday | 68.13 | 69.15 | 67.11 | 76.45 | 77.60 | 75.30 |
22.08.2019 | thursday | 68.23 | 69.25 | 67.21 | 76.14 | 77.28 | 75.00 |
23.08.2019 | friday | 68.20 | 69.22 | 67.18 | 76.45 | 77.60 | 75.30 |
26.08.2019 | monday | 68.10 | 69.12 | 67.08 | 76.45 | 77.60 | 75.30 |
27.08.2019 | tuesday | 68.55 | 69.58 | 67.52 | 76.62 | 77.77 | 75.47 |
28.08.2019 | wednesday | 68.13 | 69.15 | 67.11 | 76.06 | 77.20 | 74.92 |
29.08.2019 | thursday | 68.34 | 69.37 | 67.31 | 76.43 | 77.58 | 75.28 |
30.08.2019 | friday | 68.04 | 69.06 | 67.02 | 76.10 | 77.24 | 74.96 |
Exchange Rate Forecast for September | Forecast of the dollar for the week and month | Euro exchange rate forecast for a week and a month | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
the date | Day of week | Course | Max. | Min. | Course | Max. | Min. |
02.09.2019 | monday | 67.31 | 68.32 | 66.30 | 75.60 | 76.73 | 74.47 |
03.09.2019 | tuesday | 67.44 | 68.45 | 66.43 | 75.71 | 76.85 | 74.57 |
04.09.2019 | wednesday | 67.29 | 68.30 | 66.28 | 75.45 | 76.58 | 74.32 |
05.09.2019 | thursday | 67.58 | 68.59 | 66.57 | 75.40 | 76.53 | 74.27 |
06.09.2019 | friday | 67.76 | 68.78 | 66.74 | 75.63 | 76.76 | 74.50 |
09.09.2019 | monday | 67.81 | 68.83 | 66.79 | 75.64 | 76.77 | 74.51 |
What determines the dollar rate, factors affecting exchange rates
If you are interested in buying or selling euros or dollars, the exchange rate is an important indicator for you every day. Today both monetary units are showing significant volatility. This is primarily due to political factors.
What affects the exchange rate of the US dollar and the euro:
- decisions made by diplomats in the framework of international cooperation. Yesterday Angela Merkel announced her readiness to agree with Russia - the euro fell slightly against the ruble. Tomorrow Donald Trump will release a new package of sanctions - the dollar will jump to the skies. Therefore, if you want to play on the currency exchange or make money on buying / selling currency, you need to follow the political news;
- economic situation in the country and in the world. Yes, even economic shifts within Russia affect the position of the ruble, respectively, and the exchange rate of foreign currencies against it;
- decisions of the Central Bank. It is known that at the beginning of the aggravation of relations with Europe and the United States, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation tried to balance the jumps in exchange rates against the ruble using its own resources. Today the volatility of the dollar and the euro has slightly decreased, and the system of containment of the Russian banking network played a significant role in this.
Previous rate forecasts
We all remember the times when the dollar exchange rate did not exceed 35 rubles, and the euro was kept at 39-45 rubles. Unfortunately or fortunately, these rates have not appeared on the boards in banks and exchange offices for several years. Below is our forecast for currency rates a few days before the start of the rapid fall of the ruble. This information is presented just like that, as a keepsake ...
Dear visitors of the site "Forecast of the exchange rate for tomorrow", we draw your attention to the fact that the forecast of the exchange rate of the dollar and the euro is given only for informational purposes and cannot be regarded as a guide to action! We are not responsible for the accuracy of these forecasts, since exchange rates depend on a huge number of factors and even the most experienced trader, broker, financier (yes, in general, anyone) will not be able to predict the exchange rate for tomorrow, week or month with 100% accuracy!
U.S. dollar - the official currency of the United States of America. Bank code - USD. It is denoted by the $ sign. 1 dollar is equal to 100 cents. Banknote denominations in circulation: 100, 50, 20, 10, 5, 2 (relatively rare banknote), 1 dollar, as well as coins of 1 dollar, 50, 25, 10, 5 and 1 cent. In addition, there are banknotes in denominations of 500, 1,000, 5,000, 10,000 and 100,000, which were previously used for mutual settlements within the Federal Reserve System, but since 1945 are no longer issued, and since 1969 they have been officially withdrawn from circulation, since they were replaced by an electronic payment system. The name of the monetary unit, according to the most common version, comes from the medieval thaler coin minted in Germany.
Traditionally, the obverse of the US dollar depicts the presidents and politicians of the United States. On modern banknotes, these are Benjamin Franklin - $ 100, Ulysses Grant - 50, Andrew Jackson - 20, Alexander Hamilton - 10, Abraham Lincoln - 5, Thomas Jefferson - 2 and George Washington - 1 dollar. The reverse side depicts historical monuments: $ 100 - Independence Hall, where the Declaration of Independence was signed, 50 - Capitol, 20 - White House, 10 - US Treasury, 5 - Lincoln Memorial in Washington. The 1 dollar banknote on the back has a special design consisting of a double-sided image of the so-called Great Seal of the United States, used to authenticate documents issued by the government and stored in Washington.
It is believed that in order to counter the printing of counterfeit dollars, the design should be changed at least once every 7-10 years. Moreover, absolutely all US banknotes issued since 1861, when money was first issued in paper form, are legal tender in the United States.
For the first time, the decision to issue US dollars was made by Congress in 1786, and in 1792 they became the main settlement currency of the state. Since 1796, the principle of a bimetallic currency was introduced, that is, both silver and gold coins were minted. Moreover, each time, as a result of a change in the price ratio for two precious metals, either one or the other coins disappeared from circulation. Until 1857, foreign money (primarily Spanish pesos and later Mexican dollars) also served as legal tender in the United States.
In 1900, the gold standard law was passed. At this point, $ 1 was equivalent to 1.50463 grams of pure gold. In 1933, it was first devalued by 41% as a result of the Great Depression. A troy ounce of gold is now worth $ 35.
At the end of World War II, as a result of the Bretton Woods agreement, the dollar became the only monetary unit exchanged for gold, while the exchange rates of other world currencies were pegged to the American one. At the same time, in the postwar years, the United States became Europe's main creditor. Thus, the US dollar became the world's settlement currency and took its place in the reserves of central banks.
However, by 1960, the chronic budget deficit of the United States led to the fact that the amount of dollars held by creditors around the world exceeded the size of the gold reserve. The crisis of 1969-70 complicated the situation. As a result, in 1971, the exchange of dollars for gold was finally stopped after the corresponding statement by President Richard Nixon.
During the 1970s, the dollar depreciated. The situation was aggravated by the 1975-76 crisis. In 1976, as a result of an international agreement, a new one, the Jamaican monetary system, was created, which finally legalized the refusal of gold backing of currencies.
The strengthening of the dollar in the 1980s put American producers at a disadvantage relative to other countries. As a result, it was decided to devalue the dollar by cutting interest rates. And by 1991, they managed to actually halve the exchange rate against the Japanese yen, pound and deutsche mark.
In 1992, as a result of the fall of the British pound sterling and the crisis in Europe, the dollar rose in price by almost 30%, but from April 1993 its quotations began to decline again - until 1998, when there was a significant weakening of the dollar against the Japanese yen - from 136 up to 111 within three days. This was due to the massive repatriation of funds from Japanese investors as a result of the crisis in the markets of developing countries, including the default in Russia.
1999-2001 is a period of new strengthening of the US dollar, which was stopped by the Federal Reserve, which cut interest rates to 2% in order to stimulate the economy.
The most important development for the dollar was the creation in 1999 of the single European currency, into which the central banks of many countries - the creditor of the United States transferred part of their reserves.
For the summer of 2011, the US dollar is quoted at 1.40-1.46 dollars per euro, 76-78 Japanese yen per dollar and 1.62-64 dollars per pound.
Despite the competition from the euro, today the currency of the United States occupies a leading place in the reserves of central banks. In addition, it remains the main settlement currency between countries in international trade, and is also the base one for settlements through payment systems using plastic cards outside the European Union zone, where the euro prevails.
The US dollar is the main currency of the Forex market. Transactions are processed through this currency and basic quotes are set.
The opinions of experts regarding the future of the dollar are diametrically opposed. On the one hand, many believe that the collapse of the dollar financial system is inevitable in the near future due to the huge external debt of the United States, the largest in the world. For the summer of 2011, it exceeds $ 14.5 trillion.
On the other hand, the stability of the dollar is based on high economic indicators. The US economy ranks first in terms of gross domestic product, ahead of China, which is in second position, almost twice. In addition, the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System, as well as the faith of investors who keep their assets in the US currency and seek to convert them into dollars during crises, seek to convert them into dollars in US debt instruments, find a refuge from the elements of the market economy in US debt instruments.
The fact that the forecast for the dollar exchange rate for November 2018 will not become positive is indicated by many factors: sanctions, low economic growth, oil prices. Experts believe that the ruble will continue to decline by the end of the year, breaking through the 71 mark.
Forecasts of experts, the Ministry of Finance and the latest news
The domestic ruble will strengthen to 63-64, but only next year. This forecast was made by the Ministry of Economic Development in its review until 2024. According to the latest news, the document says that the return of the national currency to the levels of 63-64 rubles will take place no earlier than the second half of next year, and then it will continue to weaken. The ministry also changed the forecast for the average annual rate of the American currency - if in July it was equal to 60.8 rubles, now it is 61.7 rubles. As for next year, according to the ministerial forecast, the average annual exchange rate will strengthen from 63.9 to 63.2 rubles.
The forecast also lowered the expected GDP growth rate and now it is equal to 1.8%, and the expected capital outflow will be $ 41 billion, which also affects investment sentiment and does not add confidence to the Russian currency.
If we talk about the short term, then sharp currency fluctuations do not add optimism. The US dollar is demonstrating steady growth and has already exceeded 68 rubles, which makes experts' forecasts disappointing in terms of the Russian ruble. Among the factors, they name:
- currency crisis in a number of developing countries and outflow of investors;
- anti-Russian sanctions;
- trade war with China.
In this regard, the forecast of analysts boils down to the fact that in the near future the RUB / USD pair will be trading at the level of 67.3-68.6 rubles and the dollar is unlikely to give up its positions. The only positive moment for the ruble, experts say, is the absence of interventions by the Ministry of Finance, or rather, the suspension of purchases of foreign currency. And although this does not affect the strengthening of the ruble exchange rate, it at least slightly softens its fall.
How much will the dollar cost in Russia from November 1
70 rubles for the North American dollar - such an exchange rate in Russia is quite expected already next month. Anti-Russian sanctions continue to exert their pressure, the departure of foreign investors, the ban on operations with Russian bonds - all this contributes to the weakening of the ruble.
“If everything goes according to a very negative scenario, then we can get 74-75 rubles per dollar. If the compromise option wins, some stabilization of the ruble exchange rate is possible, ”says Alexander Egorov, who holds the position of currency strategist at TeleTrade Group.
Dynamics of the USD / RUB exchange rate, Q3, data from the Central Bank of Russia
the date | Course |
July 2 | 63,1313 |
July 9 | 62,7874 |
July 16 | 62,2194 |
July 23 | 63,1205 |
July 30 | 62,6228 |
6 August | 63,5596 |
13 august | 68,0362 |
20 August | 67,1446 |
August 27 | 67,3015 |
September 3 | — |
September 5th | 68,3932 |
But at the same time, analysts are betting on seasonal tax periods and on oil - the growing cost of black gold can support the domestic currency in the range from 65 to 69 rubles, if not next month, then from November 1 until the end of the year.
In the meantime, the ruble reached its two-year low: at this price - 69 rubles / dollar, the exchanges traded in March 2016. The reasons for this decline are low economic growth and global strengthening of the US currency.
The question of what will happen to the dollar in the near future worries not only economists, but also ordinary citizens. This interest is primarily due to the fact that Russia's economic stability largely depends on the exchange rate of the American currency against the domestic ruble.
This dependence is determined by many external and internal factors, the main of which are the price of oil and gas on the world market, as well as currency quotes on the stock market. What forecasts are made by experts regarding the US dollar for 2018, let's try to understand this review.
What is the trend of the dollar rate for the near future?
In 2017, the US currency appreciated significantly. Several events influenced this at once:
- house approval of the tax reform passed by the Senate on December 19 last year;
- an increase in the federal reserve system (FRS) rate;
- implementation of the FRS project aimed at reducing the cash dollar supply;
- the signing by US President Donald Trump of a bill to ease taxation of citizens.
In addition, in European countries, there has recently been an economic recession associated with a crisis within the conglomerate (the intentions of some states to leave the European Union have been announced), an increase in unemployment, and the influx of a large number of Muslim refugees from the belligerent powers. All this contributes to the depreciation of the euro and at the same time to the strengthening of the dollar in the world financial market.
Dollar exchange rate forecast for the first quarter of 2018
Since the demand for the dollar supply in the world continues to increase, in the near future the United States currency will only strengthen. This is the forecast made by authoritative international experts for the spring of 2018. As for the dollar-ruble ratio, the oil price is considered to be the main factor of influence, since Russia is one of the largest suppliers of "black gold" in the world.
Predictions for the current spring based on forecasts of leading exchange analysts (the estimated cost of 1 dollar in rubles is indicated):
- march - 58.35
- april - 59.87
- may - 61.23
At the same time, some experts predict that with the victory of V.V. Putin in the presidential elections on March 18, 2018, the growth of the domestic currency or its stabilization is possible. Which of the financiers was right, the near future will show.
Experts' forecast for summer 2018
Economists' opinions on the RUB / USD exchange rate for the summer of 2018 were divided:
- Some experts predict the quotation of the domestic currency at a level not exceeding 56 rubles. for the dollar.
- Other experts say that the rate of US money in the summer will fluctuate in the range from 57 to 62 rubles.
For months, it may look like this (the estimated cost of 1 dollar in rubles is indicated):
- june - 61.89
- july - 62.93
- august - 60.88
Dollar forecast for fall 2018
The fall forecast for the Russian monetary unit against the US currency will largely depend not only on the price of oil and gas, but also on how fruitful this season will be. Economic analysts make the following predictions for this period (the estimated cost of 1 dollar in rubles is indicated):
- september - 62.98
- october - 61.25
- november
$ Exchange rate at the end of 2018
The end of 2018 will be marked by the following important financial events.
The Russian currency was unable to keep the upward impulse to its American counterpart. Ruble pair results for Wednesday - ₽61.3300 / USD and ₽71,7000 / euro... The positions of the US currency have become stronger by 12.0 kopecks, while the value of the Old World currency “sank” by 36.7 kopecks.
The energy market, to which special attention was focused yesterday, showed an upward trend ($ 79.80 at the close), but this morning the situation has changed ($ 79.52 at 07:15 Moscow time).
The key reason for the moderate weakening of a barrel is the data of the US Department of Energy on the accelerated growth of energy reserves in the United States (+5.778 million barrels instead of the -1.567 million included in the quotes). The statistics of the department turned out to be diametrically opposite to the report of the American Petroleum Institute (-1.3 million measuring barrels), which was released a day earlier.
The results of the two-day OPEC summit, which ended yesterday, are helping to maintain an acceptable position for "black gold". According to the final release, the cartel members in April fulfilled an agreement to cut production of the strategic energy carrier by 172% and will return to consideration of production quotas at a meeting in June.
Other significant events in the form of "minutes" of the FRS and statistics on business activity in the US could not have a critical impact on the rate (the results of the above reports were close to investors' expectations). The main driver of the ruble's behavior in the remaining days of the week, according to bankers, will be the players' sentiments in relation to "developing" currencies. Oil prices and the activity of corporate taxpayers on the eve of Friday's “peak” transfers to the budget are named as other sources of influence on the exchange rate.
- At the beginning of the week, most EM-currencies were able to demonstrate growth amid falling Treasury yields. However, further strengthening of "developing" currencies is far from obvious. For now, we are focusing on the range of ₽60.80–62.80 / USD. We believe that the main source of influence on the rate is the general sentiment of traders regarding EM currencies. Other factors - the tax period and the dynamics of commodity quotations - are currently secondary, - analysts commented at Promsvyazbank.
For their part, currency strategists of Bank Zenith note the decisive influence of tax payments on the exchange rate.
- At the end of the week, the ruble will “enjoy” support from exporters (the “peak” of the May season of tax payments falls on Friday). The external background for the ruble remains neutral. Oil prices, despite a slight correction, remain high. US Treasury yields interrupted growth, which positively affects the positions of high-yielding currencies.<…> After Friday tax payments are over, domestic support for the ruble will weaken, representatives of the lending institution warn.
Forecast of the currency strategist of the financial institution Vladimir Evstifeev for Friday evening - ₽63.00 / USD.
Meanwhile, B&N Bank expects the ruble to grow on expensive oil and to absorb ruble liquidity, which the Central Bank has begun. The forecast for the end of the week announced by the currency strategist of the credit institution Anton Pokatovich is ₽61.90-62.80.
Analysts of Vostochny Bank link the nearest prospects of the ruble with geopolitics and statistics on unemployment in the US released today. The expert of the financial institute Konstantin Kochergin did not predict the prospects for RUR / USD before the publication of the relevant data.