VK Stepan Demour Open. Stepan Demura: "The fall of the Russian economy is an irreversible process
Economy / Politics / Society 18-Mar, 01: 269 14 387 15
Stepan Demour stated that in Russia it will be worse in Russia than in the 90s.The main reason is a serious structural problem in the economy of the country and its management.
In addition, the Kremlin leads two spent wars - in Syria and Ukraine. Also the content of the Crimea, plus the sanctions cost no cheaply.
Evaluation of the fall of the ruble and the growth of the dollar's course from Demur is the same as before - by the end of the year about 200 rubles per US dollar, and then devaluation will be.
The famous trader Stepan Demur during his seminar, named by them "Drug addicts in the ring", expressed the opinion that Russia was waiting after the "Putin's Election" - events that should take place in the next Sunday.
Speaking about what is happening with the Russian economy, Demura noted, the licking of the authorities on the growth of GDP does not share, and here, why.
Indeed, today there is a slight GDP growth today, but it is due to the fact that oil prices have grown and are still kept at one level.
However, the problem, according to economist, is that GDP growth is generated exclusively to the oil and gas industry - even "Rosstat" says.
Industry and business - in the tax trap
All Russian industry and retail stagnate double digits. The only source of income to the budget is now, according to the analyst, is the oil and gas industry, all other enterprises (construction, manufacturing industries, retail) have fallen into a tax trap, the payment of taxes on their profits falls by a grace rate.
As soon as the price of oil falls - the tax base will fall.
If you add a sharp, but stable reduction in the buying demand and purchasing power of the population, as well as the fall of the ruble exchange rate, we will get, the economist is confident, a very sad picture for the next one and a half years. Russia is waiting for mass bankruptcy in all sectors, because the country, says the analyst, does not produce anything. Where, in this case, take the profit?
Exhausted fixed assets
Stepan Gennadyevich is alarming and the fact that investments in the main funds of the country are only 10 percent, whereas in developed states, this indicator is recorded at 40-45 percent.
Since the collapse of the Union, we did not have the industry left (all factories and plants turned into boutiques and shopping centers), no frames that could maintain aggregates in production.
In the 90s, according to Demur, it was all that was a resource, thanks to which the country managed to survive the crisis.
Now there is no basis, the base that could keep the "bending" economy, but there is no perspective that is waiting for Russia, much worse than in the 90s.
High risk of mass sales Investors of Russian OFZ
The expert also noted the fact that the proportion of non-residents among the owners of Russian OFZ has now reached 37 percent, and in some of the IPZ issues, their share reaches 75 percent.
As soon as the massive sale by foreign investors of Russian bonds begin, the ruble will instantly fly down, and the collapse of the economy, according to the analyst, will be inevitable.
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Stepan Demour stated that in Russia it will be worse in Russia than in the 90s. The main reason is a serious structural problem in the economy of the country and its management. In addition, the Kremlin leads two spent wars - in Syria and Ukraine. Also the content of the Crimea, plus the sanctions cost no cheaply.
Evaluation of the fall of the ruble and the growth of the dollar's course from Demur is the same as before - by the end of the year about 200 rubles per US dollar, and then devaluation will be.
The famous trader Stepan Demur during his seminar, named by them "Drug addicts in the ring", expressed the opinion that Russia was waiting after the "Putin's Election" - events that should take place in the next Sunday.
Speaking about what is happening with the Russian economy, Demura noted, the licking of the authorities on the growth of GDP does not share, and here, why. Indeed, today there is a slight GDP growth today, but it is due to the fact that oil prices have grown and are still kept at one level. However, the problem, according to economist, is that GDP growth is generated exclusively to the oil and gas industry - even "Rosstat" says.
Industry and business - in the tax trap
All Russian industry and retail stagnate double digits. The only source of income to the budget is now, according to the analyst, is the oil and gas industry, all other enterprises (construction, manufacturing industries, retail) have fallen into a tax trap, the payment of taxes on their profits falls by a grace rate. As soon as the price of oil falls - the tax base will fall. If you add a sharp, but stable reduction in the buying demand and purchasing power of the population, as well as the fall of the ruble exchange rate, we will get, the economist is confident, a very sad picture for the next one and a half years. Russia is waiting for mass bankruptcy in all sectors, because the country, says the analyst, does not produce anything. Where, in this case, take the profit?
Exhausted fixed assets
Stepan Gennadyevich is alarming and the fact that investments in the main funds of the country are only 10 percent, whereas in developed states, this indicator is recorded at 40-45 percent. Since the collapse of the Union, we did not have the industry left (all factories and plants turned into boutiques and shopping centers), no frames that could maintain aggregates in production. In the 90s, according to Demur, it was all that was a resource, thanks to which the country managed to survive the crisis. Now there is no basis, the base that could keep the "bending" economy, but there is no perspective that is waiting for Russia, much worse than in the 90s.
High risk of mass sales Investors of Russian OFZ
The expert also noted the fact that the proportion of non-residents among the owners of Russian OFZ has now reached 37 percent, and in some of the IPZ issues, their share reaches 75 percent. As soon as the massive sale by foreign investors of Russian bonds begin, the ruble will instantly fly down, and the collapse of the economy, according to the analyst, will be inevitable.
Stepan Demour stated that in Russia it will be worse in Russia than in the 90s. The main reason is a serious structural problem in the economy of the country and its management. In addition, the Kremlin leads two spent wars - in Syria and Ukraine. Also the content of the Crimea, plus the sanctions cost no cheaply.
Evaluation of the fall of the ruble and the growth of the dollar's course from Demur is the same as before - by the end of the year about 200 rubles per US dollar, and then devaluation will be.
The famous trader Stepan Demur during his seminar, named by them "Drug addicts in the ring", expressed the opinion that Russia was waiting after the "Putin's Election" - events that should take place in the next Sunday.
Speaking about what is happening with the Russian economy, Demura noted, the licking of the authorities on the growth of GDP does not share, and here, why. Indeed, today there is a slight GDP growth today, but it is due to the fact that oil prices have grown and are still kept at one level. However, the problem, according to economist, is that GDP growth is generated exclusively to the oil and gas industry - even "Rosstat" says.
Industry and business - in the tax trap
All Russian industry and retail stagnate double digits. The only source of income to the budget is now, according to the analyst, is the oil and gas industry, all other enterprises (construction, manufacturing industries, retail) have fallen into a tax trap, the payment of taxes on their profits falls by a grace rate. As soon as the price of oil falls - the tax base will fall. If you add a sharp, but stable reduction in the buying demand and purchasing power of the population, as well as the fall of the ruble exchange rate, we will get, the economist is confident, a very sad picture for the next one and a half years. Russia is waiting for mass bankruptcy in all sectors, because the country, says the analyst, does not produce anything. Where, in this case, take the profit?
Exhausted fixed assets
Stepan Gennadyevich is alarming and the fact that investments in the main funds of the country are only 10 percent, whereas in developed states, this indicator is recorded at 40-45 percent. Since the collapse of the Union, we did not have the industry left (all factories and plants turned into boutiques and shopping centers), no frames that could maintain aggregates in production. In the 90s, according to Demur, it was all that was a resource, thanks to which the country managed to survive the crisis. Now there is no basis, the base that could keep the "bending" economy, but there is no perspective that is waiting for Russia, much worse than in the 90s.
High risk of mass sales Investors of Russian OFZ
The expert also noted the fact that the proportion of non-residents among the owners of Russian OFZ has now reached 37 percent, and in some of the IPZ issues, their share reaches 75 percent. As soon as the massive sale by foreign investors of Russian bonds begin, the ruble will instantly fly down, and the collapse of the economy, according to the analyst, will be inevitable.
- Saturday, March 17, 2018 14:05
- Category :,
Famous stock analyst Stepan Demur expressed his opinion on the near future of Russia, about the economic and political situation in our country. In particular, the economist noted that the business in the Russian Federation is now "bends" in mind in view of a constant increase in taxes against the background of a stable fall of consumer demand, and this trend in the future will be exacerbated.
Russia becomes toxic for foreign investors
Relatively recently, according to expert, Russia was very attractive for foreign investors due to high business profitability. So, for example, if in Europe a hypermarket stepped over 5-6 years, then we have, says Demura, attachments could be "repelled" for 3-4 months. Now this (such operational payback is ed.) No, but the risks have increased at times, therefore the inflow of investment capital will not be in the near future - on the contrary: partners go, losing hundreds of millions of dollars. They are ready to bear losses, just to leave the Russian market, as Russia becomes a toxic for everyone who is trying to have a matter with it. As an example, the analyst leads to Rosneft, which he calls the "toxic asset" and says that everyone who contacts it, for some mysterious reason, immediately turns out to be in places, not so distant.
Degeneration of "Elite"
Among other things, the expert also mentions such a phenomenon as the degradation of the elite is the process lasting in our country, according to Stepan Gennadevich, for years. Now, the economist says, this process came to its logical conclusion. What would these elites do, any of their action only worsens the situation in the state. The scandals around the cocaine found in the diploma and poisoning in the UK S. Skripaly became a bright confirmation. If the Russian side did not demonstrate the world such an inadequate reaction to the happening, if it were not "stood on the pillars", the broad publicity could have been avoided. But since the motto of our authorities "Around the Enemies", as they try to demonstrate their "fluffiness" and their own guilt to someone else, on any fall and any incident, which happened on the foreign policy arena, the world's reaction will now Only such - sharp and tough.
Even cancellation of sanctions will not help
The process of falling the Russian economy began in 2012: long before the "Crimean" and the introduction of sanctions. This process is irreversible, and even if the sanctions are canceled, it will not be better.
"The Russian budget - says Demura - fascinated on the seams", but after the election, the situation will only worsen. Now our so-called. "Elites" suffered losses caused by European and American sanctions. After the elections, according to a specialist, they will want these losses to fill and apply the so-called "Rotenberg law". Then, I am sure the expert, already "will not carry" - we "in such a g @, we will be economical that it's just" Mom, do not burn "." Recall that these statements analyst made during his last seminar in the "City Class", which took place on March 15.