Dollar exchange rate forecast. Dollar exchange rate forecast for the month Government measures to maintain the ruble exchange rate
Keep in mind that exchange rates set by the central bank do not change on weekends! In the table below you can see the dollar and euro exchange rates for today, tomorrow and the week ahead. If you are interested in the future fate of currencies, follow the news and monitor quotes updates.
Dollar exchange rate | Euro exchange rate | Ruble's exchange rate | |
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There will be an official course for 10.30.2019 (we will find out via 20 hours) |
? | ? | ? |
Current official rate as of 10/29/2019 the best rates in banks |
63.8700 -13 kop. |
70.8382 -28 kop. |
went up in price + 0.29% |
Register and trade on Forex without investment - you will receive starting capital as a gift! If you trade successfully, you can withdraw your money! |
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Since the last official exchange rate was determined on October 29, 2019 | went down -21 kop. |
went down -25 kop. |
went up in price +0.34% (oil during this time: |
In the last hour | decreased slightly -4 kopecks |
dropped a little -9 kopecks |
increased in price insignificantly +0.09% |
Current exchange rates on the InstaForex exchange
Monthly dollar and euro exchange rate forecast
Exchange rate forecast for October | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
date | Day of the week | Well | Max. | Min. | Well | Max. | Min. |
28.10.2019 | Monday | 64.16 | 65.12 | 63.20 | 71.11 | 72.18 | 70.04 |
29.10.2019 | Tuesday | 64.42 | 65.39 | 63.45 | 71.45 | 72.52 | 70.38 |
30.10.2019 | Wednesday | 64.24 | 65.20 | 63.28 | 71.09 | 72.16 | 70.02 |
31.10.2019 | Thursday | 64.37 | 65.34 | 63.40 | 71.10 | 72.17 | 70.03 |
Exchange rate forecast for November | Dollar exchange rate forecast for the week and month | Euro exchange rate forecast for the week and month | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
date | Day of the week | Well | Max. | Min. | Well | Max. | Min. |
01.11.2019 | Friday | 64.00 | 64.96 | 63.04 | 70.97 | 72.03 | 69.91 |
05.11.2019 | Tuesday | 64.00 | 64.96 | 63.04 | 71.33 | 72.40 | 70.26 |
06.11.2019 | Wednesday | 63.77 | 64.73 | 62.81 | 71.33 | 72.40 | 70.26 |
07.11.2019 | Thursday | 63.80 | 64.76 | 62.84 | 71.41 | 72.48 | 70.34 |
08.11.2019 | Friday | 63.84 | 64.80 | 62.88 | 71.35 | 72.42 | 70.28 |
11.11.2019 | Monday | 63.61 | 64.56 | 62.66 | 71.32 | 72.39 | 70.25 |
12.11.2019 | Tuesday | 63.18 | 64.13 | 62.23 | 71.05 | 72.12 | 69.98 |
13.11.2019 | Wednesday | 62.88 | 63.82 | 61.94 | 70.83 | 71.89 | 69.77 |
14.11.2019 | Thursday | 63.12 | 64.07 | 62.17 | 71.00 | 72.07 | 69.94 |
15.11.2019 | Friday | 63.40 | 64.35 | 62.45 | 71.23 | 72.30 | 70.16 |
18.11.2019 | Monday | 62.98 | 63.92 | 62.04 | 70.86 | 71.92 | 69.80 |
19.11.2019 | Tuesday | 62.86 | 63.80 | 61.92 | 70.78 | 71.84 | 69.72 |
20.11.2019 | Wednesday | 62.85 | 63.79 | 61.91 | 70.93 | 71.99 | 69.87 |
21.11.2019 | Thursday | 63.15 | 64.10 | 62.20 | 71.26 | 72.33 | 70.19 |
22.11.2019 | Friday | 63.40 | 64.35 | 62.45 | 71.54 | 72.61 | 70.47 |
25.11.2019 | Monday | 63.80 | 64.76 | 62.84 | 72.11 | 73.19 | 71.03 |
26.11.2019 | Tuesday | 63.85 | 64.81 | 62.89 | 71.99 | 73.07 | 70.91 |
27.11.2019 | Wednesday | 64.06 | 65.02 | 63.10 | 71.74 | 72.82 | 70.66 |
28.11.2019 | Thursday | 64.21 | 65.17 | 63.25 | 72.07 | 73.15 | 70.99 |
29.11.2019 | Friday | 64.03 | 64.99 | 63.07 | 71.66 | 72.73 | 70.59 |
What determines the dollar exchange rate, factors influencing exchange rates
If you are interested in buying or selling euros or dollars, the exchange rate is an important indicator for you every day. Today, both currencies are showing significant volatility. This is primarily due to political factors.
What affects the exchange rate between the US dollar and the euro:
- decisions made by diplomats within the framework of international cooperation. Yesterday Angela Merkel announced her readiness to reach an agreement with Russia - the euro fell slightly against the ruble. Tomorrow Donald Trump will release a new package of sanctions - the dollar exchange rate will skyrocket. Therefore, if you want to play on the currency exchange or make money by buying/selling currencies, you need to follow political news;
- economic situation in the country and in the world. Yes, even economic changes within Russia affect the position of the ruble, and, accordingly, the exchange rate of foreign currencies to it;
- decisions of the Central Bank. It is known that at the beginning of the aggravation of relations with Europe and the United States, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation tried to balance the jumps in exchange rates against the ruble using its own resources. Today, the volatility of the dollar and euro has decreased slightly, and the system of containment of the Russian banking network played a significant role in this.
Previous rate forecasts
We all remember the times when the dollar exchange rate did not exceed 35 rubles, and the euro remained at the level of 39-45 rubles. Unfortunately or fortunately, these rates have not appeared on display boards in banks and exchange offices for several years. Below is our forecast of exchange rates a few days before the rapid fall of the ruble. This information is presented just like that, as a keepsake...
Dear visitors to the site “Currency Rate Forecast for Tomorrow”, please note that the forecast for the dollar and euro exchange rates is given for informational purposes only and cannot be regarded as a guide to action! We are not responsible for the accuracy of these forecasts, because... exchange rates depend on a huge number of factors and even the most experienced trader, broker, financier (yes, in general, anyone) will not be able to predict the exchange rate for tomorrow, for a week or for a month with 100% accuracy!
The ruble ended last week strengthening its position against the world's leading currencies. Following the results of Friday's trading, the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange consolidated around the level of 65.60 rubles/$, which is 50 kopecks. below the previous week's close. The weakening of the American currency occurs against the background of its depreciation in the world, as well as the preparation of Russian companies to pay taxes to the budget.
Viktor Veselov, chief analyst at Globex Bank Viktor Veselov:
At the beginning of the week there are no macro statistics for the dollar that could significantly affect it. Therefore, in anticipation of tax payments for mineral extraction tax, VAT, and excise taxes, which will take place on October 25, the ruble will strengthen against the dollar. Also, the currencies of the EM sector may receive weak support in anticipation of the meetings of the Central banks of Indonesia and Turkey on October 23 and 25, where the heads of regulators may touch upon the topic of the future prospects of national economies and rates due to the increase in the US Federal Reserve rate. However, investors are not expecting rate changes by listed banks in the EM sector. On Thursday-Friday, statistics on durable goods and preliminary quarterly US GDP will be released, which is expected to decline, which plays against the dollar. Also on Friday, the Bank of Russia will hold a meeting, following which we do not expect an increase in the interest rate, but we expect its growth in the fourth quarter as a result of increased inflation due to the impact of the VAT increase from 2019.
Konstantin Kochergin, head of financial markets operations department at Vostochny Bank:
On Thursday, the ECB's decision on the key rate will become known and a press conference by Mario Draghi will take place. The probability of a rate change is 0% due to the slowdown in economic growth in the EU and the upcoming Brexit. The main problem is the border control regime between Ireland and Northern Ireland, which is leaving the community within the United Kingdom. British Prime Minister Theresa May proposed extending the “transition period.” On Friday the market will be waiting for US GDP data. There will also be a regular meeting of the Bank of Russia on the key rate. Given the slight strengthening of the ruble and the weakening of anti-Russian rhetoric, the likelihood of a change in the key rate at the current meeting is minimal. In our opinion, the key rate will remain at the same level.
Anatoly Saltykov, head of the strategy development department of SMP Bank:
The coming week will continue the tax period and the sale of foreign currency earnings by exporters, who are supporting the ruble for the second week. At the same time, the dollar is unstable in relation to world currencies - a rather tense information background has formed in the United States on the eve of the midterm elections to Congress, which will ensure some volatility for the pair. Statistics on oil reserves in the United States, together with the consequences of a diplomatic scandal between the United States and Saudi Arabia, are holding back the growth of quotations. As a result, the ruble is deprived of raw material support. An important event of the week will be the meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia on October 26, at which the decision on the key rate is considered. We do not expect any movements in the rate, however, the regulator’s rhetoric following the meeting will be important for the market. We expect the pair's exchange rate this week to be in the range of 64.7–66.2 rubles/$.
Maxim Timoshenko, CFA, director of the financial markets operations department at Russian Standard Bank:
The tax period this coming week will continue to support the ruble. However, the ruble is weighed down by a decrease in risk appetite on the part of investors, as the tensions between China and the United States continue to be the focus of their attention. The ruble is also negatively affected by the news background from the Eurozone, where the European Commission reported that Italy's draft budget for 2019 violates EU rules. It is worth noting the harsher rhetoric of the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting and the growing concern about a possible deterioration in relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia. The beginning of a decline in the price of oil, which has already dropped below $80 per barrel, is also not in favor of the ruble. At the end of the week a decision is expected on the key rate, which will most likely be adjusted.
Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the analytical department of Zenit Bank:
The ruble remains relatively stable, reacting weakly to the corrective dynamics of oil prices. The main factor supporting the Russian currency this week should be the tax period. The high level of the ruble price of a barrel of oil significantly increases the volume of mineral extraction tax payments, which should affect the activity of exporters before paying this tax before October 25. In addition to the conversion of foreign currency earnings, the ruble can also be supported by the potential formation of a deficit of ruble liquidity in the banking system as a result of tax payments. The influx of money through the budget channel in October was significantly less than the previous month, which may lead to additional demand for rubles until the end of October.
Mikhail Poddubsky, chief analyst of Promsvyazbank:
Since mid-September, the dollar exchange rate has been in the range of 65–67 rubles/$ most of the time, which at the moment looks like a temporary equilibrium range. On the one hand, the Russian ruble is still greatly undervalued, based on the current level of oil prices and the size of the current account surplus. On the other hand, the external environment for the currencies of developing countries remains not the most favorable, and sanctions risks remain. We continue to expect the range to remain at 65–67 rubles/$.
Anton Pokatovich, chief analyst at BCS Premier:
The ruble's movement will likely follow the trend common for developing country currencies, and they will remain under pressure. Over the next week, the Russian currency will receive support from the tax period. A possible escalation of tensions in relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia could give oil prices an impetus to return to $82 with a corresponding increase in support for the national currency. We expect the ruble exchange rate to be in the range of 64.9–66.8 rubles/$.
Analysts' forecast for the dollar exchange rate as of October 26, 2018
The consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic mean of analysts’ forecasts
For 2018, as well as other currencies, it is planned for a maximum of 2-3 years in advance, since the main parameters of budget plans are laid down for such a period. Forecasts about whether the dollar will grow in 2018 should be made only on the basis of a set of indicators: the budget balance, prices for oil and hydrocarbons, the inflation rate, the presence of economic sanctions against Russia. Experts are confident that we should not expect a sharp fall in the ruble either in the second half of 2017 or during 2018.
The main groups of factors that determine currency indicators
There are two groups of factors that seriously affect the forecast for the value of the dollar:
- predictable factors are events that can be planned in advance with a certain result;
- unexpected - imply the sudden occurrence of social catastrophes and cataclysms, including unpredictable natural phenomena and anomalies, earthquakes, tsunamis.
The short-term economic forecast for the next 2-3 months allows us to draw the conclusion that the ruble will remain at its previous positions or will rise slightly; no prerequisites have been identified for the ruble to suddenly fall. Typically, such predicted data are confirmed by stock indicators by 90-95%. The general trend of a stable position of the ruble at the end of 2017 can only be disrupted by unforeseen political, social or natural disasters.
Regarding the dollar exchange rate in 2018 and the price per barrel of oil, we can say that at the moment the situation is reflected in the following figures: with the price of a barrel of oil 50 dollars, 1 USD = 60 RUB, if the price falls to 40 dollars per barrel, then the ruble exchange rate may fall up to 80 per dollar. No large-scale reduction in the price of combustible materials is expected until the end of 2017 and in 2018.
Government measures to maintain the ruble exchange rate
The main economic indicators in the Russian budget have already been planned for the next 3 years, and the Ministry of Economic Development provided President V. Putin with data on the gradual depreciation of the ruble to 64.4 by the end of 2019. This option is called conservative, without fundamental changes in economic growth. Such indicators can be expected if the oil price does not fall below $40 per barrel. However, these figures cannot be considered final, because there are several conditions that can refute these calculations and affect exchange rate fluctuations relative to the ruble.
Representatives of this position put forward the following justification: a gradual reduction in budget expenditures over the next 3 years, for which the expenditure portion should not exceed the indicators of 2016, when it remained at the level of 15 trillion 780 billion rubles. What is required is not a one-time cost reduction, but a long-term systematic implementation of the planned actions until 2020.
This will allow the budget deficit to remain at 3.3%.
The possible lifting of sanctions and the return of credit opportunities for the Russian Federation will increase the growth of investment flows into the Russian economy and contribute to the strengthening of the ruble prospects. If the price of oil decreases to less than $40 per barrel, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov proposes using a project option in which the budget for 2017 is set at 1 USD = 67.5 RUB, for 2018 - 68.7 RUB, and for 2019 - 71.1 RUB.
Expert opinion on the dollar exchange rate
Specialists from the APECON Economic Forecasting Agency assess the financial situation a little differently. They argue that it is possible to introduce new sanctions that will significantly affect the dollar exchange rate and stop the growth of the ruble. Therefore, at the beginning of 2018, 1 USD will increase and cost almost 70 RUB, and if the price of oil decreases, it may exceed 80 RUB.
Former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin predicts negative growth dynamics of domestic money for 2017-2018. Long-term sanctions will put pressure on the Russian economy, so the ruble exchange rate will “float” and will not be able to stabilize or begin to grow in the next 5 years. This will intensify the unfolding socio-economic crisis and entail a precipitous decline in living standards. Crisis phenomena will last until 2020 and can be minimized by effective reforms in the structure of public administration.
Employees of the Institute of Economic Policy named after. Gaidar conducted their own research on what awaits the financial system in the near future. As a result, a completely optimistic forecast of the dollar exchange rate was presented starting in 2018. According to economists, the average cost of 1 USD will be no more than 67-68 RUB.
This is due to both GDP growth rates and the increase in oil prices to at least 60 rubles per barrel.
Representatives of the Russian Academy of National Economy and the All-Russian Academy of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia will speak together with them. They regularly publish analytical reviews of the economic situation called “Monitoring the economic situation in Russia. Trends and challenges of socio-economic development.”
In accordance with operational data, they proposed the following models for the development of the Russian economy:
- basic - in this case, the price of elite Urals oil should remain at a level of at least 40 dollars per barrel, then in 2017 1 USD will cost 67 RUB, and in 2018 - 62 RUB;
- optimistic - if this model is implemented, then by 2018 the elite brand of oil will show growth and reach a price of 60 dollars per barrel, in which case the ruble will strengthen significantly, and in 2017 its indicators will fluctuate around 60 RUB, in 2018 - 57.2 RUB;
- pessimistic - oil prices will fall even lower to 33-34 dollars per barrel, and the ruble exchange rate will fall to 82-84 per dollar.
Global trends in finance
Many foreign analysts are inclined to believe that Russia will return to its previous position among equal partners in the global financial system and will gain access to the main instruments for regulating financial flows.
An expert at the French magazine Petrostrategies, Pierre Terzian, is confident that oil prices will stabilize by mid-2017 and remain at the same level until the end of 2018. In his opinion, the dollar will not rise above 70 rubles and after reaching this mark it will begin to fall in price again.
The gradual development of the Russian economy will begin, even in the face of sanctions from international credit organizations, which will increase the value of the ruble by 5-10%.
The Fitch rating agency suggests taking into account inflation indicators at the level of 5.55-6% and other macroeconomic indicators, which are steadily improving. In this regard, it is assumed that the price of the dollar will deviate slightly from the 60 ruble figure, and no one expects an unexpected collapse of the dollar or a sharp collapse of the ruble. All experts in the economic field do not forget to point out the possibility of unexpected panic outbreaks caused by citizens' distrust of government actions. The difficult foreign policy situation provokes the spread of accumulative tendencies, but there are no prerequisites for making money by selling dollars next year.
In the context of a multinational merger of capital, even overseas events directly affect sales ratings in individual countries. Parliamentary and presidential elections in America, Europe and Russia, terrorist attacks in various regions, man-made and natural disasters quickly affect the state of the currency exchange. No political system inspires unconditional trust, so the fractional method of storing money in various currencies and marketable securities is spreading.
The latest forecast for the US dollar to ruble exchange rate for 2018 - a table with currency forecasts by month. Expert opinion on the prospects for the USD/RUB pair exchange rate in Russia.
Fresh dollar exchange rate forecast. Will there be growth?
Here's how he assesses the dollar's prospects for the fall and winter of 2018 Kira Yukhtenko, chief editor of InvestFuture and stock columnist:
Until we see the final version of US sanctions against Russia, it will not be easy for the dollar to firmly gain a foothold below 65 rubles. There is too much uncertainty for investors. We do not know whether the sanctions will affect Russian state-owned banks and whether a ban will be introduced on the ownership of Russian government bonds.
In my opinion, the following scenario is likely: in November the ruble will face increased volatility. After the elections to the US Congress on November 6 and the meeting between Trump and Putin on November 11, the American side will return to discussing sanctions. During this period, the dollar can rise above 70 and even above 75 rubles.
In fact, sanctions may not be as harsh as the market fears. And if the price of Brent oil remains at least above $70 per barrel until the end of the year, the ruble will have a chance to strengthen in December.
However, do not let your guard down: economists are warning of a new global crisis already in 2019-2020. If the gloomy forecasts come true, the currencies of all developing countries, including the ruble, will suffer
What will happen to the dollar/ruble exchange rate in 2018?
Dollar/ruble chart (Weekly)
No one can accurately predict the dollar exchange rate - too many factors simultaneously participate in its formation. But, taking into account the high foreign policy risks and structural problems in the Russian economy, experts agree: the ruble exchange rate may continue to decline in the fall and winter of 2018.
At the end of 2018, the dollar to ruble exchange rate may rise to 73-75 rubles. If you want to buy a currency for long-term savings, listen to the advice of economists: any depreciation can be used for purchases
Risk factors for the ruble
- The Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to raise interest rates, which puts long-term pressure on the currencies of all developing countries
- Waiting for the final package of anti-Russian sanctions from the United States in November 2018. Additional sanctions from the EU and UK are also possible.
- Possible decline in oil prices - the United States insists that Russia and Saudi Arabia “bring down” the price by increasing production
- Trade wars around the world - possible slowdown in growth rates of all major economies in the world
Factors supporting the ruble
- The Central Bank of the Russian Federation raised the key rate in September 2018, and also suspended currency purchases for the Ministry of Finance as part of the budget until the end of the year. This decision allowed the exchange rate to stabilize in September.
- Until the fall, the price of oil continued to rise thanks to the OPEC agreement, as a shortage formed in the market.
Economists believe that the positive factors listed above will limit the potential for the ruble to weaken in the coming months. Without them, the Russian currency would be in danger of falling more rapidly.
Dollar forecast for 2018 by month. Table
Based on the forecasts of 11 stock analysts, we compiled average forecasts for the USD/RUB pair by month. The data in the table is given at the end of the month.
Month | Average forecast at the end of the month, rub. |
October 2018 | 67,98 |
November 2018 | 70,39 |
December 2018 | 68,25 |
Forecasts for the end of 2018 by month
Dollar forecast for October 2018
The consensus forecast for the dollar to ruble exchange rate for October 2018 is 67.98 rubles. October may turn out to be a difficult month for the ruble: we are waiting for details of US sanctions against Russia and fighting panic within the country.
Dollar forecast for November 2018
The consensus forecast for the dollar to ruble exchange rate for November 2018 is 70.39 rubles. On November 6, elections to the US Congress will take place, and after this date, Republicans and Democrats can resume discussion of anti-Russian sanctions.
Dollar forecast for December 2018
The consensus forecast for the dollar to ruble exchange rate for December 2018 is 68.25 rubles. The market is focusing on the last Fed meeting of the year, which will clarify the central bank’s plans for 2019.
The Russian ruble started the New Year with strong growth against the US dollar. According to the Moscow Exchange, in less than two weeks the exchange rate of the American currency decreased by almost 1 ruble, to 56.60 rubles/$. Thus, the dollar exchange rate in Russia returned to its minimum values since June 2017. The weakening of the American currency occurred against the background of its depreciation on the world market. At the same time, the ruble is supported by oil prices, which for the first time since December 2014 rose above $70 per barrel.
Natalia Shilova, director of the center for macroeconomic forecasting at B&N Bank:
High oil prices will continue to support the Russian currency, but the start of interventions by the Ministry of Finance will restrain the strengthening of the ruble. There will be few significant events on international markets; we expect slight volatility at the beginning of the week due to the holiday and the absence of significant events. We expect currency fluctuations within the range of 56.2–57.4 rubles/$. In general, we still believe that in January-February the ruble will maintain its achieved positions and we do not recommend betting on the weakening of the Russian currency.
Viktor Veselov, chief analyst at Globex Bank:
Thanks to the US holiday on January 15th, trading will start with little liquidity on the forex market. However, the ruble may continue to strengthen against the backdrop of the start of the tax period and high oil prices. At the same time, the OFZ market has not yet responded in any way to the statements of the US Treasury about the imminent publication of new sanctions against Russia, which also supports the ruble. In addition, there is a surplus of ruble liquidity in the banking system, which, in any negative scenarios, will help the OFZ market trade steadily. In turn, this is a positive signal for non-residents who hold long-term securities. However, given the above, it is also worth keeping in mind that if new sanctions are announced, some investors may hedge their bets and give preference to dollars.
Alexey Ilyushchenko, head of the strategic development unit of SMP Bank:
The year 2018 started positively for the ruble: the Russian currency is strengthening amid rising oil prices, which, in turn, surpassed $69 per barrel. The impetus for oil prices was given by statistics on oil reserves in the United States, which showed a stronger decline than investors expected. At the same time, the Ministry of Finance’s announcement on planned currency purchases in January did not seriously affect the ruble exchange rate. Nevertheless, there are risks for the Russian currency: investors’ attention will focus on the US decision on Iran, as well as on inflation data in the United States. Additional pressure on the ruble may come from news of additional economic restrictions. In this regard, we expect that the ruble next week will trade in the range of 56.5–57.0 rubles/$.
Maxim Timoshenko, director of the financial markets operations department at Russian Standard Bank:
This coming week the tax period starts in Russia, starting with the payment of excise taxes and taxes on personal income. Together with the high price of oil, this may provide additional support to the ruble, thereby completely neutralizing the fact that the Ministry of Finance purchases foreign currency from the open market, whose actions cause the weakening of the ruble. In addition, next week the US stock exchanges are resting on Monday due to a national holiday, which may support the ruble due to the continued weakening of the dollar on world markets against all currencies of developing countries, including due to investors’ doubts about the economic effect of Donald’s ongoing tax reform Trump. In general, there is investor optimism on global markets amid renewed annual highs across the entire energy sector.
Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the analytical department of Zenit Bank:
The behavior of the ruble is now largely determined by the budget rule, which does not allow it to fully respond to rising oil prices. In the oil market itself, which has been swept by another wave of optimism, intrigue remains: will OPEC+ extend its agreement in the middle of the year with high oil prices? For now, this question is rhetorical, since market volatility is high, as well as investors’ reaction to US industry data is ambiguous. The beginning of the tax period in the Russian Federation, which in January will now reduce the excess liquidity of banks by 1.4 trillion rubles, is unlikely to cause a reaction in the Russian currency. A significant part of the supply of foreign currency from exporters is absorbed by the Ministry of Finance as part of its purchases. Under these conditions, the ruble can only count on the fleeting interest of carry traders, especially after the failed storm in the US government debt market.
Vladimir Borisov, head of treasury products sales department at Absolut Bank:
This week, the growing oil market continues to act as a strong driver for the ruble. Sanction risks, which may materialize as early as February, still prevent us from considering this trend as long-term; however, according to our forecasts, until the end of January, the strengthening of the Russian currency will continue at levels below 56.0 paired with the US dollar. Against the backdrop of favorable oil price conditions, purchases by the Ministry of Finance are growing. In order to avoid abrupt changes in the exchange rate, the department will increase purchase volumes while maintaining the positive dynamics of oil prices.
Analysts' forecast for the dollar exchange rate as of January 19, 2018
The consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic mean of analysts’ forecasts
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