The key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on 31.12. The key rate of the Central Bank will replace the refinancing rate in the documents
Various measures are being taken to improve the economy of our country. Including adjust the main financial indicators. What will be, what it affects and what forecasts experts give are in our review.
Macroeconomic Regulator
The refinancing rate is the percentage at which banks and other financial institutions borrow money from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to provide loans and credits to the public and business. Refinancing rate in 2017 continues to act as a tool that can influence the rate of inflation and influence the economic situation in the country as a whole. How does this happen?
With a decrease in the interest rate, loans become more accessible, since the cost of providing them is less. As a result, manufacturers are expanding their capabilities and increasing profits from economic activities.
But there is also a negative side to reducing the Bank of Russia indicator under consideration: the population has a lot of so-called “cheap” money for which more goods can be purchased. The result is a rise in prices (in order to increase revenues) and a gradual increase in inflation.
And with an increase in the refinancing rate, the opposite effect occurs:
- loans are getting more expensive;
- the number of borrowers decreases;
- consumption is declining;
- as a result, a slowdown in inflation.
therefore whether the rate has changed since January 1, 2017, an important point that is able to influence the economic situation in the country.
What now: refinancing rate in 2017at
Over the past two years, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has kept a high percentage of refinancing compared to 2010-2013 in order to stabilize the situation in the foreign exchange market. Also managed:
- slow down inflation growth rates from 11.0 to 6.5%;
- reduce inflation expectations;
- keep oil prices above $ 45 / bbl.
However, after such measures 2 negative consequences occurred:
- there was a risk of completely exhausting the budget reserves;
- decreased business activity of economic entities that need support from the Central Bank.
Read also Transfer and accommodation retirement savings Pension Fund Of Russia
Therefore, on the basis of Bank of Russia order No. 3894-U, at the beginning of 2016, the refinancing rate was equated to the key one. In addition, it was decided to gradually reduce this indicator in the future:
date | Refinancing Rate Value |
January 1, 2016 | 11,0% |
June 14, 2016 | 10,5% |
September 19, 2016 | 10% |
Thus, refinancing rate from January 1, 2017 remained at 10%. Since, according to the leadership of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the potential for its further reduction is temporarily absent.
Forecasts for 2017
The refinancing rate is changing in order to improve the economic situation in Russia. Meanwhile, it is already known that at the beginning of 2017, pensioners will receive a lump sum payment of 5,000 rubles. And this may affect the acceleration of inflation and make the Bank of Russia postpone the question of revising the rate.
Experts suggest that under favorable external conditions, the Central Bank could reduce the rate to 9 - 8.5%. Optimistic forecasts are based on the following conditions:
- slowed inflation;
- stable foreign exchange market;
- moderate increase in oil prices.
Upon reaching the desired result, a decrease will positively affect the economic recovery of our country. And when high risk the occurrence of negative factors, its indicator will remain at the same level.
On March 24, 2017, the Bank of Russia lowered its key rate from 10 to 9.75 percent. Then again there was a decrease of 0.50%. Since May 2, 2017, the rate has already reached 9.25 percent
How will the decrease in the rate affect the work of an accountant
If a decrease occurs refinancing rates in 2017, this change, for example, will affect:
Index | Explanation |
Calculation of compensation for late payment of salaries | The labor code requires that enterprises give employees wages on time. In case of delay, monetary compensation is due. It is equal to 1/150 of the key rate. The calculation formula looks like this: If the rate is reduced to 9.5%, the coefficient of 0.1 (10%) will change by 0.095. |
Calculation of interest and taxes | According to paragraph 4 of Art. 75 of the Tax Code of the Russian Federation, for each day of late payment, you will have to additionally transfer 1/300 of the refinancing rate (from the 31st day - 1/150 of the rate). If the CBR reduces the rate, the amount of interest paid will decrease. |
Failure by the IFTS for the repayment of taxes and contributions | FTS is obliged to return the surplus paid money within a month after receiving an overpayment application from the organization or individual entrepreneur. In case of violation of this requirement, interest is calculated based on the key rate. |
Key rate of the Bank of Russia and all its changes
The key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for today, i.e. from 10.28.2019, it is - 6.50%., and from December 16, 2019 it will amount to 6.25%. The next Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, held on December 13, 2019, decided to reduce the key rate by 25 bp to 6.25% per annum. This key rate will be valid until February 7, 2020.
The Board of Directors noted that the slowdown in inflation is faster than predicted. Inflationary expectations of the population continue to decline. The price expectations of enterprises as a whole have not changed. Rates of growth russian economy increased in the III quarter, but it is still difficult to assess their sustainability. The risks of a significant slowdown in the global economy remain. In the short term, disinflationary risks still prevail over proinflationary. Given the current monetary policy, annual inflation will be 3.5–4.0% at the end of 2020 and will remain close to 4% in the future.
With the development of the situation in accordance with the basic forecast, the Bank of Russia will assess the feasibility of further reducing the key rate in the first half of 2020. The Bank of Russia will make decisions at a key rate taking into account the actual and expected dynamics of inflation relative to the target, the development of the economy on the forecast horizon, as well as assessing risks from internal and external conditions and the reaction of financial markets to them.
The key rate of the Bank of Russia for December 2019 - February 2020
At the next meeting of the Bank of Russia Board of Directors on December 13, 2019 a decision was made to reduce the key rate by 25 bp to 6.25%. This key rate will be valid from 12/16/2019 to 02/07/2020, i.e. before the date of the next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia.
The previous key rate of the Bank of Russia was 6.50% and its validity period lasted about two months (from October 28, 2019 - to December 15, 2019).
In deciding to reduce the key rate to 6.25%, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia proceeded from the following:
The dynamics of inflation. Slowing inflation is faster than predicted. The annual growth rate of consumer prices in November fell to 3.5% (from 3.8% in October 2019) and, according to estimates as of December 9, amounted to about 3.4%. According to the results of November, annual core inflation also fell to 3.5% after 3.7% in October. According to the Bank of Russia, inflation indicators reflecting the most stable processes of price dynamics are near or below 4%. At the end of 2019, the Bank of Russia predicts inflation in the range of 2.9–3.2%.In November, disinflation factors continued to have a significant impact on inflation. The annual growth rate of food and non-food products continued to decline. In terms of one-off factors, a high yield and an expansion of supply in individual food markets contribute to maintaining low food price growth rates, taking into account seasonality. The strengthening of the ruble since the beginning of the year, along with a slowdown in inflation in the countries-trading partners, limits the increase in prices for imported goods. Influence of restrained demand, including external, remains on inflation. At the same time, the acceleration of inflation in the market segment of the service sector, which occurred in November, may be one of the signs of a revival of consumer demand.
In November, inflationary expectations of the population continued to decline, while remaining at an elevated level. The price expectations of enterprises as a whole have not changed. Slowing annual inflation creates the conditions for lowering inflation expectations of the population and business in the future.
According to the forecast of the Bank of Russia, taking into account the current monetary policy, annual inflation will be 3.5–4.0% according to the results of 2020 and will remain close to 4% in the future. At the same time, annual inflation will be below 3% in the first quarter of 2020, when the effect of increasing VAT will come out of its calculation.
Monetary conditions. Since the last meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, monetary conditions continued to soften. OFZ yields and deposit and loan rates decreased. Decisions taken by the Bank of Russia to reduce the key rate and decrease in OFZ yields create conditions for a further reduction in deposit and credit rates, which will support the growth of corporate and mortgage lending. The Bank of Russia will evaluate the impact of decisions already taken at a key rate on monetary conditions and inflation.
Economic activity. According to the results of 2019, the GDP growth rate may be closer to the upper limit of the forecast range of the Bank of Russia - 0.8–1.3%. This is primarily due to the higher than expected annual growth rate of GDP in the III quarter. However, the sustainability of such economic growth rates is still difficult to assess.
In the III – IV quarters, there was a slight improvement in the dynamics of domestic demand. So, investment activity has increased slightly, including in connection with an increase in budget capital expenditures. In October, the annual growth rate of turnover increased retail. The annual growth of industrial production continued. However, leading indicators indicate the persistence of weak business sentiment in the industry, especially regarding export orders. A restraining effect on the dynamics of economic activity continues to be exerted by a decrease in external demand for Russian exported goods in the context of a slowdown in global economic growth.
The labor market does not create excessive inflationary pressures. Unemployment near historically low levels not due to an increase in demand for labor, but to a simultaneous reduction in the number of employed and able-bodied people.
In the second half of 2019, fiscal policy began to support economic growth, which was also related to the implementation of national projects planned by the Government. Further increase government spending, including investment, will contribute to the economic growth.
The forecast for GDP growth in 2020–2022 was maintained by the Bank of Russia unchanged. The GDP growth rate will gradually increase from 0.8–1.3% in 2019 to 2-3% in 2022. This is possible as the Government takes a series of measures to overcome structural constraints, including the implementation of national projects. At the same time, the expected slowdown in the global economy expected to continue on the forecast horizon will continue to have a restraining effect on the growth of the Russian economy.
Inflationary risks. In the short term, disinflationary risks still prevail over proinflationary. This is primarily due to the state of internal and external demand. Disinflation risks remain on the part of the dynamics of prices for certain food products, including due to an increase in the supply of agricultural products.
However, it is necessary to take into account the effect of inflation factors. The risks of a reversal of trends in the food market are not ruled out, given that the ratio of temporary and permanent factors in this market is difficult to assess. Along with this, the implemented easing of monetary policy may have a more significant upward effect on inflation than the Bank of Russia estimates. In the case of a more significant decrease in the growth rates of the world economy, including under the influence of toughening international trade restrictions and other geopolitical factors, there may be increased volatility on world commodity and financial marketsinfluencing exchange rate and inflation expectations. At the same time, the inflationary risks associated with the growth of budget expenditures in 2020 remain low due to the fact that the increase in expenditures is likely to have a time-distributed character.
On a longer horizon, inflationary risks from a number of internal conditions persist. Significant risk remains elevated and non-anchored inflationary expectations. The medium-term dynamics of inflation may also be affected by budget policy parameters, including decisions on investing the liquid part of the Fund national welfare over the threshold of 7% of GDP.
The Bank of Russia assessment of the risks associated with wage dynamics and possible changes in consumer behavior has not changed significantly. These risks remain moderate.
If the situation develops in accordance with the basic forecast, the Bank of Russia will evaluate the feasibility of further reducing the key rate at one of the next meetings of the Board of Directors. The Bank of Russia will make decisions at a key rate taking into account the actual and expected dynamics of inflation relative to the target, the development of the economy on the forecast horizon, as well as assessing risks from internal and external conditions and the reaction of financial markets to them.
The next meeting of the Bank of Russia Board of Directors, at which the issue of the key rate level will be considered, is planned February 7, 2020. The time of publication of the press release on the decision of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia is 13:30 Moscow time.
The dynamics of the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for 2013 - 2019 and more ...
The key rate was declared as the main instrument of monetary policy from September 13, 2013. From this date until the end of 2013 it was 5.50% per annum, inflation in 2013 amounted to 6.45%.
In 2014, the key rate changed 6 times, and all in the direction of growth. Russia completed the year 2014 with a key Central Bank rate of 17.00%. A sharp increase in the key rate to 17.00% per annum occurred on December 16, 2014. The Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia noted that this decision was due to the need to limit the significantly increased recently devaluation and inflation risks. Inflation in 2014 amounted to 11.36%.
The year 2015, which began at a rate of 17% per annum, continued with its gradual decrease. During 2015, there were 5 changes in the key rate, and the rates themselves during the year were 6. The year ended with a key rate of 11.00%. Inflation in 2015 amounted to 12.90%.
During January - June 2016, the Bank of Russia periodically decided to keep the key rate in force since 2015 at the level of 11.0% per annum, from June 14 it reduced it to 10.50%, and from September 19, 2016 it decreased to - 10 00% off. At the end of 2016, the key rate was maintained at 10.00%. Inflation at the end of 2016 amounted to 5.4%.
Since the beginning of 2017, the Bank of Russia key rate remained at 10.00%, and from the second quarter its methodical decrease began. In 2017, the key rate changed 6 times and decreased from 10.00% to 7.75% by the end of the year. Inflation in Russia in 2017 amounted to 2.5%.
At the beginning of 2018, the Bank of Russia key rate was 7.75% per annum, reduced to 7.50% from February 12, 2018, reduced to 7.25% per annum from March 26, 2018, and increased to 7 September 17, 2018. ,50%. From December 17, 2018, the rate was again raised to 7.75% and returned to the rate in force at the beginning of the year. The key rate of 7.75% will be valid until March 22, 2019.
Since the beginning of 2019, the Bank of Russia rate has been 7.75% per annum, since June 17, 2019 - 7.50%, since July 29, 2019 - 7.25%, since September 9, 2019 - 7.00%, since October 28, 2019 G. - 6.50%, and from December 16, 2019 - 6.25% and which will be valid until February 7, 2020. The dynamics of the Bank of Russia key rate in 2019 is impressive, as it has been replaced for the sixth time in a year. The total decrease for the year was 1.50 percentage points
Table of the dynamics (changes) of the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for 2013 - 2020
The table shows the dynamics (changes) of the Bank of Russia key rate since its introduction (from September 13, 2013):
Bid validity period | Bank of Russia key rate (%) |
---|---|
from December 16, 2019 - to February 7, 2020 (the date may be specified) | 6,25 |
october 28, 2019 - December 15, 2019 | 6,50 |
from September 9, 2019 - to October 27, 2019 | 7,00 |
july 29, 2019 - September 8, 2019 | 7,25 |
from June 17, 2019 - to July 28, 2019 | 7,50 |
from December 17, 2018 - to June 16, 2019 | 7,75 |
from September 17, 2018 to December 16, 2018 | 7,50 |
from March 26, 2018 - to September 16, 2018 | 7,25 |
february 12, 2018 - March 25, 2018 | 7,50 |
from December 18, 2017 - to February 11, 2018 | 7,75 |
from October 30, 2017 to December 17, 2017 | 8,25 |
from September 18, 2017 - to October 29, 2017 | 8,50 |
from June 19, 2017 - to September 17, 2017 | 9,00 |
from May 2, 2017 - to June 18, 2017 | 9,25 |
from March 27, 2017 - to May 01, 2017 | 9,75 |
from September 19, 2016 - to March 26, 2017 | 10,00 |
from June 14, 2016 - to September 18, 2016 | 10,50 |
from August 3, 2015 - to June 13, 2016 | 11,00 |
from June 16, 2015 - to August 2, 2015 | 11,50 |
may 05, 2015 - June 15, 2015 | 12,50 |
from March 16, 2015 to May 04, 2015 | 14,00 |
from February 2, 2015 to March 15, 2015 | 15,00 |
from December 16, 2014 to February 1, 2015 | 17,00 |
from December 12, 2014 to December 15, 2014 | 10,50 |
from November 5, 2014 to December 11, 2014 | 9,50 |
from July 28, 2014 to November 4, 2014 | 8,00 |
from April 28, 2014 to July 27, 2014 | 7,50 |
from March 03, 2014 to April 27, 2014 | 7,00 |
from September 14, 2013 to March 2, 2014 | 5,50 |
Definition and introduction history
The Bank of Russia key rate was first officially announced as the main monetary policy tool on September 13, 2013. Then, on the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, a new macroeconomic concept - Key bid, and the approach to monetary policy instruments was also changed.
It was on September 13, 2013 that the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation adopted a historic decision on the implementation of a set of measures to improve the tools of the monetary policy system as part of the transition to the inflation targeting regime * .
Measures for the new monetary policy of the Bank of Russia include the following:
- introduction key rate by unifying interest rates on operations to provide and absorb liquidity on an auction basis for a period of 1 week;
- formation of an interest rate corridor Bank of Russia and the optimization of the system of instruments for regulating the liquidity of the banking sector;
- change in the role of the refinancing rate in the instrument system of the Bank of Russia.
The key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is the rate set by the Bank of Russia in order to have a direct or indirect impact on the level of interest rates prevailing in the country's economy, which occurs through lending by the Bank of Russia to commercial banks. That is, with its help there is an impact on the economy, in order to achieve the planned level of inflation.
Key rate regulation, as a rule, is the main instrument of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia.
Starting January 1, 2016, the Bank of Russia adjusted the refinancing rate to the key rate level, and before that date the refinancing rate was of secondary importance and was indicated on the Bank of Russia website for information.
That is, from September 13, 2013 to January 1, 2016, a record was made on the Bank of Russia website (in the section of the main indicators of the financial market), which reflected new approaches to the system of monetary policy instruments. The entry looked like this:
- Key rate,% - 0,00
- For reference: refinancing rate,% - 0.00.
Important: The Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia (dated December 11, 2015) established that starting January 1, 2016:
- the value of the refinancing rate is equal to the value of the key rate of the Bank of Russia, determined at the relevant date and its independent value is not set in the future. A change in the refinancing rate will occur simultaneously with a change in the Bank of Russia key rate by the same amount.
- since January 1, 2016 the Government Russian Federation will use the Bank of Russia key rate in all regulations instead of the refinancing rate (which was signed by the Prime Minister of Russia D. Medvedev).
So, the current key rate of the Bank of Russia is 6.25% per annum, and its validity period is from December 16, 2019 to February 7, 2020.
* Inflation targeting - a set of measures, expressed in the choice of economic goals that need to be addressed in order to achieve the planned inflation rate.
The dynamics of the refinancing rate from January 1, 1992 to September 13, 2013 can be seen
Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia)
Press office
107016, Moscow, st. Neglinnaya, 12
The Bank of Russia has decided to reduce its key rate by 25 bp to 6.25% per annum
The Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia on December 13, 2019 decided to reduce 25 bp to 6.25% per annum. Slowing inflation is faster than predicted. Inflationary expectations of the population continue to decline. The price expectations of enterprises as a whole have not changed. The growth rate of the Russian economy in the III quarter increased, but it is still difficult to assess their sustainability. The risks of a significant slowdown in the global economy remain. In the short term, disinflationary risks still prevail over proinflationary. Given the current monetary policy, annual inflation will be 3.5–4.0% at the end of 2020 and will remain close to 4% in the future.
With the development of the situation in accordance with the basic forecast, the Bank of Russia will assess the feasibility of further reducing the key rate in the first half of 2020. The Bank of Russia will make decisions at a key rate taking into account the actual and expected dynamics of inflation relative to the target, the development of the economy on the forecast horizon, as well as assessing risks from internal and external conditions and the reaction of financial markets to them.
The dynamics of inflation. Slowing inflation is faster than predicted. The annual growth rate of consumer prices in November fell to 3.5% (from 3.8% in October 2019) and, according to estimates as of December 9, amounted to about 3.4%. According to the results of November, annual core inflation also fell to 3.5% after 3.7% in October. According to the Bank of Russia, inflation indicators reflecting the most stable processes of price dynamics are near or below 4%. At the end of 2019, the Bank of Russia predicts inflation in the range of 2.9–3.2%.
In November, disinflation factors continued to have a significant impact on inflation. The annual growth rate of food and non-food products continued to decline. In terms of one-off factors, a high yield and an expansion of supply in individual food markets contribute to maintaining low food price growth rates, taking into account seasonality. The strengthening of the ruble since the beginning of the year, along with a slowdown in inflation in the countries-trading partners, limits the increase in prices for imported goods. Influence of restrained demand, including external, remains on inflation. At the same time, the acceleration of inflation in the market segment of the service sector, which occurred in November, may be one of the signs of a revival of consumer demand.
In November, inflationary expectations of the population continued to decline, while remaining at an elevated level. The price expectations of enterprises as a whole have not changed. Slowing annual inflation creates the conditions for lowering inflation expectations of the population and business in the future.
According to the forecast of the Bank of Russia, taking into account the current monetary policy, annual inflation will be 3.5–4.0% according to the results of 2020 and will remain close to 4% in the future. At the same time, annual inflation will be below 3% in the first quarter of 2020, when the effect of increasing VAT will come out of its calculation.
Monetary conditions. Since the last meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, monetary conditions continued to soften. OFZ yields and deposit and loan rates decreased. Decisions taken by the Bank of Russia to reduce the key rate and decrease in OFZ yields create conditions for a further reduction in deposit and credit rates, which will support the growth of corporate and mortgage lending. The Bank of Russia will evaluate the impact of decisions already taken at a key rate on monetary conditions and inflation.
Economic activity. According to the results of 2019, the GDP growth rate may be closer to the upper limit of the forecast range of the Bank of Russia - 0.8–1.3%. This is primarily due to the higher than expected annual growth rate of GDP in the III quarter. However, the sustainability of such economic growth rates is still difficult to assess.
In the III – IV quarters, there was a slight improvement in the dynamics of domestic demand. So, investment activity has increased slightly, including in connection with an increase in budget capital expenditures. In October, the annual growth rate of retail sales increased. The annual growth of industrial production continued. However, leading indicators indicate the persistence of weak business sentiment in the industry, especially regarding export orders. A restraining effect on the dynamics of economic activity continues to be exerted by a decrease in external demand for Russian exported goods in the context of a slowdown in global economic growth.
The labor market does not create excessive inflationary pressures. Unemployment near historically low levels is not due to increased demand for labor, but to a simultaneous reduction in the number of employed and able-bodied people.
In the second half of 2019, fiscal policy began to support economic growth, which was also related to the implementation of national projects planned by the Government. In the future, an increase in government spending, including investment, will contribute to economic growth.
The forecast for GDP growth in 2020–2022 was maintained by the Bank of Russia unchanged. The GDP growth rate will gradually increase from 0.8–1.3% in 2019 to 2-3% in 2022. This is possible as the Government takes a series of measures to overcome structural constraints, including the implementation of national projects. At the same time, the expected slowdown in the global economy expected to continue on the forecast horizon will continue to have a restraining effect on the growth of the Russian economy.
Inflationary risks.In the short term, disinflationary risks still prevail over proinflationary. This is primarily due to the state of internal and external demand. Disinflation risks remain on the part of the dynamics of prices for certain food products, including due to an increase in the supply of agricultural products.
However, it is necessary to take into account the effect of inflation factors. The risks of a reversal of trends in the food market are not ruled out, given that the ratio of temporary and permanent factors in this market is difficult to assess. Along with this, the implemented easing of monetary policy may have a more significant upward effect on inflation than the Bank of Russia estimates. In the case of a more significant slowdown in the global economy, including under the influence of tightening international trade restrictions and other geopolitical factors, volatility in the global commodity and financial markets may increase, affecting exchange rate and inflation expectations. At the same time, the inflationary risks associated with the growth of budget expenditures in 2020 remain low due to the fact that the increase in expenditures is likely to have a time-distributed character.
On a longer horizon, inflationary risks from a number of internal conditions persist. Significant risk remains elevated and non-anchored inflationary expectations. The medium-term dynamics of inflation may also be affected by budget policy parameters, including decisions to invest the liquid part of the National Wealth Fund beyond the threshold level of 7% of GDP.
The Bank of Russia assessment of the risks associated with wage dynamics and possible changes in consumer behavior has not changed significantly. These risks remain moderate.
With the development of the situation in accordance with the basic forecast, the Bank of Russia will assess the feasibility of further reducing the key rate in the first half of 2020. The Bank of Russia will make decisions at a key rate taking into account the actual and expected dynamics of inflation relative to the target, the development of the economy on the forecast horizon, as well as assessing risks from internal and external conditions and the reaction of financial markets to them.
According to the results of the meeting of the Board of Directors at a key rate on December 13, 2019, the Bank of Russia published a medium-term forecast.
The next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, which will consider the issue of the key rate level, is scheduled for February 7, 2020. The time of publication of the press release on the decision of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia and the medium-term forecast is 13:30 Moscow time.
Many points of legislative norms are based on what the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is valid for today. In particular, this applies to interest on tax issuescompensation to citizens of the Russian Federation, etc. The influence of this parameter on the banking sector is also important. Moreover, there is not only a causal relationship between it and the products, for example, interest on deposits and loans, but also a direct definition of certain conditions of service. In particular, penalties for violation of the schedule of payments on mortgage loans. Given that the CBR key rate is changing and its earlier levels are also used in the calculations, below will be given not only its size for today - 2019, but also for earlier periods in the form of a table. This will determine the parameter on required period, as well as evaluate the dynamics.
The table is the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for today (2019) and all its changes over the past time.
The key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for today (2019) established at the level of 6.25%. At the last meeting on December 13, 2019, it was lowered by 0.25%.
The parameter directly considered in the Russian Federation was introduced only five years ago - on September 13, 2013. From January 1, 2016 he was equated to the refinancing rate. Thus, the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation became virtually the only regulatory parameter used to calculate monetary relations in the legislation.
Date of the meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation |
Decision |
Set value (% per annum) | Start date of the new key bid level |
---|---|---|---|
12/13/2019 | Lower |
6.25 (current level) | 12/16/2019 |
10/25/2019 | Lower |
6,50 | 10.28.2019 year |
September 6, 2019 | Lower |
7,00 | 09.09.2019 year |
07/26/2019 | Lower |
7,25 | 07/29/2019 |
June 14, 2019 | Lower |
7,50 | June 17, 2019 |
12/14/2018 | Click to enlarge |
7,75 | December 17, 2018 |
September 14, 2018 | Click to enlarge |
7,50 | September 17, 2018 |
03/23/2018 |
Lower |
7,25 | 03/26/2018 |
02/09/2018 |
Lower |
7,50 |
02/12/2018 years |
December 15, 2017 |
Lower |
7,75 |
12/18/2017 |
10.27.2017 |
Lower |
8,25 |
October 30, 2017 |
September 15, 2017 |
Lower |
8,50 |
September 18, 2017 |
June 16, 2017 |
Lower |
9,00 |
06/19/2017 |
04/28/2017 |
Lower |
9,25 |
05/02/2017 year |
March 24, 2017 |
Lower |
9,75 |
03/27/2017 |
September 16, 2016 |
Lower |
10,00 |
09/19/2016 |
06/10/2016 |
Lower |
10,50 |
June 14, 2016 |
07/31/2015 year | Lower | 11,00 | 08/03/2015 year |
June 15, 2015 | Lower | 11,50 | 06/16/2015 year |
04/30/2015 year | Lower | 12,50 | 05/05/2015 year |
03/13/2015 year | Lower | 14,00 | 03/16/2015 year |
January 30, 2015 | Lower | 15,00 | 02.02.2015 year |
December 16, 2014 | Click to enlarge | 17,00 | December 16, 2014 |
12/11/2014 year | Click to enlarge | 10,50 | 12.12.2014 year |
11/05/2014 year | Click to enlarge | 9,50 | 11/05/2014 year |
07/25/2014 year | Click to enlarge | 8,00 | 07/28/2014 year |
04/25/2014 year | Click to enlarge | 7,50 | 04/28/2014 year |
03.03.2014 year | Click to enlarge | 7,00 | 03.03.2014 year |
September 13, 2013 | Install | 5,50 | September 13, 2013 |
A sharp increase in the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation was observed at the end of 2014. It was a natural reaction to the micro and macroeconomic situation in the Russian Federation. In particular, the introduction of sanctions, both with respect to Russia, and as a response. Using the indicator in question, the regulator balances the monetary status of the state. It may be noted that such actions of the Central Bank brought a positive effect, which is reflected in the systematic reduction of the key rate since the beginning of 2015.
The downward trend of the parameter under consideration lasted long enough. Until September 2018. From that moment on, within literally four months there was an increase again. Twice. Both times by 0.25%. Accordingly, 2018 was closing not only with a key rate of 7.75%, but also with its negative dynamics. Separately, we note that based on these parameters it is impossible to predict a change in the rate for the entire 2019. As indicated, this is an instrument of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to respond to various parameters of the country's micro- and macroeconomics.
CBR meeting at a key rate - schedule for 2019
The schedule of the meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is approved in advance. That is, for 2019 it was compiled in the last quarter of 2018. Includes, of course, exclusively scheduled meetings. There are eight of them:
- 02/08/2019 year (the rate is left at the same level);
- 03/22/2019 years (the rate is left at the same level);
- 04/26/2019 years (the rate is left at the same level);
- June 14, 2019 (rate reduced by 0.25%);
- July 26, 2019 (rate reduced by 0.25%);
- September 6, 2019 (rate reduced by 0.25%);
- 10/25/2019 (rate reduced by 0.50%);
- 12/13/2019 (rate reduced by 0.25%).
Here you can note a couple of nuances. Firstly, the list includes exclusively scheduled meetings of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. At the same time, extraordinary can occur. They are collected only in emergency cases when global changes occur in the country's economy. If such situations occur, they will be included in the list immediately - at the time of publication of information about such a decision.
Secondly, meetings of the Board of Directors of the CBR are held exclusively on business days. That is, scheduled fees do not happen on Saturday, Sunday or a state holiday. According to the schedule, everyone will be on Friday. Thirdly, given that the decision to change the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation can be made on Friday, the entry into force of a new level occurs on the next business day. It’s often Monday. Only after emergency meetings can they decide on its urgent entry into force.
Forecast at a key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation
As indicated earlier, the parameter under consideration is a tool for responding to micro- and macroeconomic indicators. That is, it is impossible to predict its final level for the whole year. The maximum period for which it is possible at least approximately, in fact with a share of 50 to 50, to predict a possible change in the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is the next meeting of the Board of Directors.
The next meeting will take place next year (02/07/2020). Until this time, a lot of changes are possible. At the same time, at the moment, there are no significant factors to predict a possible rate increase. As well as the prerequisites for its reduction. Moreover, at each of the last three meetings, the key rate was reduced by 0.25 and 0.50% (in general, for the last 3 meetings it was reduced by 1.0%). Therefore, most likely, it will be left at the same level. Although it is possible to shift up or down, but most likely, with such a decision, which, we repeat, is unlikely, the change will be no more than 0.25%.
What affects the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation
When determining the required key rate level, the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation relies on a huge amount of information provided in various reports. All data can be divided into four main groups:
- Current inflation dynamics;
- Monetary conditions of banks on debt instruments, deposit products, etc .;
- Activity in the economic direction of all persons of the country - individuals and enterprises;
- Forecast on inflation risks.
Relying even on these four points, without giving a detailed description of them, it becomes clear that the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation reflects the country's overall economic situation today, and also helps to curb the negative factors affecting it.
BANK OF RUSSIA DECIDED
REDUCE KEY RATE TO 9.00% ANNUAL
The Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia on June 16, 2017 decided to reduce the key rate to 9.00% per annum. The Board of Directors notes the persistence of inflation near the target level, the continued decrease in inflation expectations, as well as the restoration of economic activity. Short-term inflation risks have decreased, while at the same time they remain on the medium-term horizon. To maintain inflation near the 4% target, the Bank of Russia will continue to pursue a moderately tight monetary policy.
The Bank of Russia sees space for lowering the key rate in the second half of 2017. In the future, making a decision, the Bank of Russia will proceed from an assessment of inflation risks, inflation dynamics and the economy relative to the forecast.
The Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, making a decision at a key rate, proceeded from the following.
The dynamics of inflation. Annual inflation in May amounted to 4.1%, remaining close to the target level. Low inflation is gradually gaining stability. The growth rate of prices is becoming more uniform across regions and major groups of goods and services. The slowdown in prices for non-food products and services continued. Food inflation remains at a relatively low level, although at present, due to the depletion of stocks of the previous crop, an increase in the annual growth rate of prices for fruits and vegetables is observed. Against this background, the expected short-term increase in annual inflation occurred, which, according to estimates as of June 13, amounted to 4.2%.
In conditions of a noticeable slowdown in inflation, inflationary expectations of the population and business decreased significantly. However, this trend may temporarily stop amid seasonal increases in prices for individual species fruits and vegetables, the dynamics of which are most sensitive to inflationary expectations. To consolidate inflation near 4%, a further decrease in inflation expectations is necessary.
The disinflationary effect of domestic demand persists. Households mainly continue to adhere to a saving behavior pattern. At the same time, there is a gradual revival of consumer activity. Dynamics consumer lending until it creates significant inflationary risks.
Monetary conditions. An important role in slowing inflation was played by moderately tight monetary conditions. Amid falling key rate interest rates loans decreased. At the same time, their level maintains a balanced demand for credit. Recovery in consumption is not ahead of growth yet salary. Banks continue to adhere to a conservative policy, softening the price and non-price credit conditions, especially for reliable borrowers. The decrease in deposit rates partly led to a slowdown in the growth of deposits of the population. The Bank of Russia will formulate such monetary conditions that will support incentives for savings, which will limit inflationary risks.
Economic activity. The restoration of economic activity continues. Along with increased investment and industrial production, household consumption is increasing. Currently, a moderate increase in consumer spending does not create inflationary pressures amid an increase in the supply of goods and services.
Given the current recovery trends, the Bank of Russia raised its forecast for GDP growth rates to 1.3 - 1.8% in 2017. However, economic growth is approaching a potential level. One of the limitations is the situation on the labor market, where there are already signs of a shortage of personnel in certain segments. In the future, the GDP growth rate above 1.5 - 2% per year will be achievable subject to structural transformations.
Inflationary risks. Short-term inflation risks associated with the dynamics of oil prices decreased due to the extension of the agreement on limiting oil production by exporting countries. At the same time, short-term risks associated with the expected harvest, its effect on food prices and inflationary expectations traditionally appear at this time of the year.
Medium-term risks remain elevated. Firstly, they are associated with the further dynamics of oil prices, which, under the terms of the agreements reached, began to form at a lower level than expected. Legislative consolidation and implementation of the budget rule will help reduce these risks. Secondly, an increase in the structural deficit of labor resources can lead to a significant lag in the rate of growth of labor productivity from growth in wages. Third, a change in household behavior pattern associated with a significant reduction in the propensity to save can become a source of inflationary pressure. Fourth, the sensitivity of inflationary expectations to changes in prices for certain groups of goods and services and exchange rate dynamics remains. Fifthly, the possible implementation of a tax maneuver may lead to a temporary acceleration of inflation.