Partial crisis. Economic crises and their types
Classification of crises
All the variety of economic crises can be classified on three different grounds.
By the scale of imbalance in economic systems.
General crises cover the entire national economy.
World crises are defined by the coverage of both separate industries and spheres
economic activity on a global scale, and the entire world economy.
Partial ones apply to any one area or industry
economy. Partial crises are associated with a drop in economic activity in large areas of activity.
In particular, it comes about money circulation and loans, the banking system, stock and foreign exchange markets. Thus, the financial crisis is a deep breakdown of public finances. It manifests itself in
permanent budget deficits (when government spending exceeds its revenues). The extreme manifestation of the financial collapse is the insolvency of the state on foreign loans (during the world economic crisis of 1929-1933, Great Britain, France, Germany, Italy stopped making payments on foreign loans. In 1931, the United States deferred all payments on foreign debts for a year). In August 1998, a massive financial crisis erupted in Russia.
Monetary crisis - a shock to the monetary system.
There is a sharp reduction in commercial and bank loans, a massive withdrawal of deposits and the collapse of banks, the pursuit of cash by the population and entrepreneurs, a drop in stock and bond prices, as well as a decrease in the rate of bank interest.
The currency crisis was expressed in the elimination of the gold standard in circulation on the world market and the depreciation of the currency of individual countries (shortage of foreign "hard" currencies, depletion of foreign exchange reserves in banks, falling exchange rates).
Stock market crisis - a sharp decline in rates valuable paperssignificant
reduction of their emissions, deep recessions in activity stock exchange.
Crisis phenomena in the economy can cover separate, but interconnected areas, these are convergent crises. In this case, the parameters characterizing the development of a specific sphere, branch of the economy are subject to change. As a result, these crises are capable of reinforcing each other and ultimately turning into a so-called systemic crisis, covering the economy as a whole, which is expressed in a corresponding change in macroeconomic aggregates.
Convergent crises can exist in isolation, without attracting attention, that is, in this case, their presence in the economy is expressed in a decrease in the quality of individual subsystems without a significant impact on macroeconomic indicators.
By the regularity of imbalance in the economy.
Periodic crises recur regularly at intervals.
Cyclical crises are recurring recessions
social production, causing paralysis of business and labor
activity (activity) in all spheres of the national economy and giving rise to a new cycle of economic activity.
Intermediate crises are sporadic recessions
social production, which temporarily interrupt the stages of recovery and recovery of the national economy.
Unlike cyclical crises, they do not give rise to a new cycle, they are interrupted at some stage, are local in nature, are less deep and less prolonged.
Irregular crises have their own specific causes.
A sectoral shock covers one of the branches of the national economy and is caused by a change in the structure of production, the collapse of normal economic ties, etc. An example is the suspension of production of the textile industry in 1977.
The agrarian crisis is a sharp deterioration in the sale of agricultural products (falling prices for agricultural products). Agrarian crises, as a rule, are caused by a combination of natural factors, omissions in the organization of labor, technical backwardness, imperfect land use and land tenure systems, etc. Agrarian crises are distinguished by their duration and countercyclicality.
Structural crises are associated with a gradual and long-term growth of intersectoral imbalances in social production (one-sided and ugly development of some industries to the detriment of others, worsening of the situation in certain types production) and are characterized by the inconsistency of the existing structure of social production with the changed conditions for the efficient use of resources. They cause long-term shocks and require for their resolution a relatively long period of adaptation to the changed conditions of the process of social reproduction. A prime example of global structural
crisis may be the energy crisis that developed in the mid-70s, which required more than 5 years for the adaptation of national economies to industrial developed countries to a new structure of energy prices.
Sectoral crises are characterized by declines in production and the curtailment of economic activity in one of the industries, the national economy. The history of such crises is most fully traced in the coal, steel, textile, shipbuilding industries.
Seasonal crises are caused by the impact of suitable climatic factors that disrupt the accepted rhythm of economic activity. In particular, a delay in the onset of spring could trigger a crisis in the utilities sector due to lack of fuel.
By the nature of the violation of the proportions of reproduction.
Two types of them stand out here.
The crisis of overproduction of goods is the release of an excessive amount of useful things that cannot be sold. The crisis of underproduction of goods is an acute shortage of them to meet the effective demand of the population.
Economic crises are an inevitable phenomenon in any economy, which is characterized by an extreme aggravation of the existing economic and social contradictions and imbalances. Crises, depending on their scale, can be divided into local (covering only part of the economic system) and general, which occur in all industries and spheres. Also, economic crises are classified by issue. Micro-crises are crises that involve a small group of problems or one problem. At the same time, macro-crises are mainly caused by problems of a significant scale.
The essence and types of economic crises
- A cyclical crisis is a crisis in all areas of the economy caused by overproduction. It arises before the start of a new cycle in the economy;
- The interim crisis is local in nature and is a response to temporary imbalances in the economy;
- A partial crisis affects only one area of \u200b\u200bthe economy and can occur in both boom and downturn;
- The industry crisis is affecting related industries and is caused by the aging of industries, a lack of personnel, and rising prices for raw materials;
- The structural crisis is caused by the need for major changes in the economic structure and lasts for several cycles;
- The monetary crisis is characterized by massive withdrawals, reduced lending, falling rates, bank crashes, and soaring interest rates.
FEDERAL STATE BUDGETARY EDUCATION
INSTITUTION OF HIGHER PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION
Orenburg Agrarian State University
Institute of Continuing Professional Education
Department of Professional
education and applied economics
Course work
by discipline: "Macroeconomics"
on the topic: "Essence, types and features of economic crises"
Completed by a student of group 11 of the 1st year
specialties: Economics
Saktaganova Dina
Checked by: Arinushkina I.S.
Orenburg 2013
Content
- Introduction
- 2.2 Main types of crises
- 3. World financial crisis
- 3.1 The nature of the global financial crisis
- 3.2 Crisis in selected countries
- 3.3 Financial and economic crisis of 2008-2010 in Russia
- Conclusion
- Literature
Introduction
As you know, modern society strives for constant improvement of the standard and living conditions, which can only be provided by sustainable economic growth. However, observations show that long-term economic growth is not uniform, but is constantly interrupted by periods economic instability and even crises.
Crises have a negative effect on almost everyone and therefore they are trying to fight them. But even in such developed countries as the USA, Great Britain, France, Germany and other countries of Western Europe, we do not see much success in the fight against economic crises.
The problem of economic crises is currently relevant in our country. Research on economic crises at the global level, in particular in Russia, should help economists learn to get out of them painlessly and quickly. In addition, it is very important to investigate the causes of economic cycles and find out how the amplitudes of their fluctuations are smoothed in order to use this knowledge to regulate these cycles so that they do not have a destructive effect on the economy. By learning how to smooth economic cycles, people will immediately feel the result in the form of the country's economic prosperity and personal well-being. And the main goal of economists is to achieve just such results. But it's not that simple. Scientists have not been able to figure out the exact reasons for the occurrence of cycles for several centuries. Currently, there are only theories of the occurrence of economic cycles, with which other economists agree or provide their point of view. However, this question remains open to this day.
Known american economist Alvin Hansen, who devoted many of his works to the study of economic cycles, put it this way: "Throughout the history of literature on economic cycles, various economists have repeatedly expressed the opinion that the origin of cyclical fluctuations remains an insoluble mystery."
Macroeconomic equilibrium in practice is rather a surprising accident, an exception that proves the rule: the market economy is unstable. Economic history the last two centuries provides us with a great many examples of this instability. Periods of successful industrial development and general economic prosperity have always been followed by periods of recession, accompanied by a drop in production and unemployment.
All of the above suggests that the problem of economic crises is one of the central ones in economic theory. As you know, since 2008 the whole world has been seized by the global financial and economic crisis. It burst out unexpectedly and still worries the minds of many, since it is not yet known how long it will last and how strong an imprint it will leave on the economies of countries. In carrying out this course work, I set myself the following goals: to deeply understand the essence of economic crises, the causes of the occurrence of various types of these crises in the USA, Western Europe and Russia, in their classification according to various criteria, as well as in the consequences that they entail for yourself.
The goals set involve the solution of some tasks. It is necessary to analyze what measures were taken by the leaders of certain states in the fight against this phenomenon, which were correct, and which were doomed to failure. Of course, we will talk about the "Great Depression" of the United States - a crisis, the consequences of which have affected the whole world. This paper will analyze the causes of the global energy crisis of the 70s, which had no less negative significance for the economies of many states than the Great Depression.
Also, of course, a separate chapter will be highlighted on the global financial crisis. I would like to analyze in more detail the reason for its occurrence, the measures taken by states to preserve the economies of countries, the consequences that, unfortunately, are inevitable in any case.
In the process of writing the work, materials from periodicals, economic literature were used. Almost all literature was found by me in in electronic format... The work consists of an introduction, three chapters, a conclusion, a list of references.
economic crisis world financial
1. History of economic crises
1.1 The history of the concept of "economic crisis"
The concept of a crisis has many levels and interpretations. The expression "crisis" comes from the Greek word "crisis", which means "a sentence, a decision on any issue, or in a doubtful situation." It can also mean "exit, solution to the conflict (for example, military)". But the modern meaning of the word is most often used by Hippocrates and doctors: and a crisis means a decisive phase in the development of the disease. In this sense, we are talking about a "crisis" when a disease intensifies or passes into another disease or even ends in death. For example, a laconic formulation is given by Koselleck: a crisis is "a barely measurable turning point at which the solution is either death or life." In the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, the concept of a crisis began to be applied in relation to the processes taking place in society, such as military, political crises, while the almost unchanged meaning of the crisis taken from medicine was used. And finally, in the nineteenth century, meaning shifted to economics. "Classic" economic concept the crisis that took shape at that time means an unwanted and dramatic phase in the capitalist economic system, characterized by fluctuations and negative phenomena, obstacles. In this sense, the concept of crisis has long occupied a firm place in the scheme of theories of conjuncture in economic development. So Spithoff's cyclical scheme contains stages: recession - first rise - second rise - peak - lack of capital - crisis. But this definition does not take into account many different schemes and stages of development and functioning of the economy. Therefore, the "classical" definition of the crisis was replaced by a more ambiguous concept of "economic crisis". According to Mechlap, we are talking about an economic crisis if "there is an undesirable state of economic relations, an intolerable critical situation of large strata of the population and manufacturing sectors of the economy."
Sombart defines the economic crisis as "an economic negative phenomenon, in which there is a massive threat to economic life, reality." Microeconomics uses the concept of "enterprise crisis". In a broad sense, it means a process that endangers the existence of an enterprise. The concept of "enterprise crisis / enterprise crisis" describes in the modern economic literature various phenomena in the life of an enterprise, from simple hindrances in the functioning of an enterprise through various conflicts up to the destruction of an enterprise, which, at least for a given enterprise, can be characterized as catastrophic.
An enterprise crisis represents a watershed moment in the sequence of processes of events and actions. Typical for a crisis situation are two options for getting out of it, or it is the liquidation of the enterprise as an extreme form or the successful overcoming of the crisis. Wiener and Kaan give us the most complete picture of the signs of a crisis.
With the help of 12 signs, Wiener and Kaan were able to most fully describe the concept of crisis: "Crises: this is often a turning point in the developing sequence of events and actions; they often form a situation in which the urgency / urgency of actions is of great importance; they threaten goals and values; their the consequences are dire for the future of the participants involved; they consist of events that create new conditions for achieving success; they introduce uncertainty in the assessment of the situation and in the development of necessary alternatives to overcome the crisis; they reduce control over events and their impact; they reduce reaction time to a minimum, cause stress and fear among participants; the information available to participants is usually insufficient; they cause a lack of time available to participants; they change the relationship between participants; they increase tension, especially in political crises, that affect the nation. " These listed signs are quite enough to fully characterize the crisis. Economic crises during which there is a violent restoration of the main proportions of reproduction disturbed during the development of the capitalist economy. Economic crises are manifested in an absolute decline in production, a reduction in capital investment, an increase in unemployment, an increase in the number of bankruptcies of firms, a fall in stock prices and other economic shocks.
The cause of economic crises is the main contradiction of capitalism - between the social nature of production and the private capitalist form of appropriation of its results. The division of labor, the specialization of production, cooperation in industry bind capitalist enterprises into a single economic mechanism, for the normal functioning of which it is necessary to observe certain proportions on the scale of the entire economy between industries, production of means of production and production of consumer goods, between capital accumulation and consumption. But the domination of private property, the anarchy of production that it engenders, fierce competition, and the exploitation of labor by capital lead to a constant violation of the proportions of reproduction. Some of these disturbances resolve spontaneously, while others intensify and accumulate.
In the system of imbalances in reproduction arising in the course of economic development, there is always a violation of the proportions between capital accumulation and consumption. The desire of capital to self-growth, the pursuit of profit is ensured by the slow growth (and sometimes even reduction) in the incomes and consumption of workers. The resulting contradiction between production and consumption accumulates, reaches an explosive point and becomes, as a rule, the direct cause of economic crises.
1.2 Theory of the development of crises in the world economy
By itself, the economic crisis does not arise from anywhere and does not go anywhere. It is an integral part of what economic theory calls the cycle. The cyclical nature of economic development has been proven by time. Economic crises of overproduction are organically inherent in capitalism and inevitably accompany it in its historical development. The theory, popular in the middle of this century, about the state regulation of the economy in order to prevent crises, which made it possible to carry out short-term smoothing of unfavorable trends, in the long-term aspect did not meet expectations, having failed to resist the general tendency of cyclical development market economy.
The objective reasons for each crisis always lie in the previous development of the economy at other stages of the cycle. The beginning of periodic economic crises was laid by the crisis of 1825 in Great Britain, where capitalist industries developed first. relations. The next crisis - the crisis of 1836, which engulfed Great Britain and the United States - 2 countries closely linked economically. In 1847, another crisis occurred that affected almost all European countries. By its nature, it was approaching a world crisis.
The first world economic crisis took place in 1857 and in almost all countries it was the deepest crisis since they entered the capitalist path of development. In the US, pig iron production fell by 20% during the crisis, and cotton consumption by 27%. In the UK, shipbuilding suffered the most, with production falling 26%. In Germany, pig iron consumption has decreased by 25%; in France - by 13% pig iron smelting and by the same amount of cotton consumption; in Russia, the production of pig iron fell by 17%, the production of cotton fabrics - by 14%.
The new economic crisis of 1866 was especially acute in Great Britain, but affected the rest of the countries only slightly. Another world crisis began in 1873 with Austria and Germany. It was the longest crisis in the history of capitalism: it ended in 1878, when Great Britain fell into the orbit of its action. The economic crisis of 1882 affected mainly the USA and France; during the crisis of 1890, the greatest economic shocks were observed in Germany, the USA and France. The crisis of 1900-1903 became a kind of borderline between the era of capitalism of free competition and the era of imperialism. During this crisis, the United States and Germany were particularly affected, and to a lesser extent Britain and France. The economic situation in Russia was also difficult, where the economic crisis coincided with a poor harvest.
Bourgeois ideologists hoped that with the emergence of capitalist monopolies, systematically organizing production at their enterprises, economic crises would disappear or, at least, soften. But that did not happen. The first economic crisis of the imperialist era - the crisis of 1907 - was no less destructive than the previous ones. He especially strongly affected the US economy. In Art. "Marxism and Revisionism" by V.I. Lenin wrote that the crisis of 1907 was a clear proof that crises remained an inevitable component of the capitalist system. At the same time, Lenin pointed out that in the era of imperialism "the forms, the sequence, the picture of individual crises have changed."
The economic crisis of 1920-1921 predominantly affected the United States and Great Britain. In 1929, the most severe world economic crisis broke out, which lasted until mid-1933 and shook the entire system of capitalism to its foundations. Industrial production during this crisis fell by 46% in the United States, 24% in the UK, 41% in Germany, and 32% in France. Industrial stocks fell 87% in the US, 48% in the UK, 64% in Germany, and 60% in France. Unemployment has reached colossal proportions. According to official data, in 1933 in 32 capitalist countries there were 30 million unemployed, including 14 million in the USA.The world crisis of 1929-1933 showed that the contradiction between the social nature of production and the private form of appropriation of production results reached such an acuteness when the capitalist economy can no longer function more or less normally.
This circumstance required state intervention in the economy, the use of methods of state influence on spontaneous processes in the capitalist economy in order to avoid shocks, which accelerated the growth of monopoly capitalism into state-monopoly capitalism. State long-term programming economic growth, carried out in many capitalist countries after World War II 1939-1945, as well as operational countercyclical regulation had a certain stabilizing effect on the development of capitalist countries. However, despite this, the features of the economic crisis manifested themselves quite clearly during this period in the USA, Great Britain, Canada, Germany, Italy. In most other capitalist countries, the accumulated contradictions of expanded capitalist reproduction were resolved in the form of recessions in economic activity with a sharp drop in economic growth rates with a predominant curtailment of the production of means of production and a slowdown in capital accumulation. Most often in these three decades, economic crises were repeated in the United States - in 1948-1949, 1953 - 1954, 1957-1958, 1960-1961, 1969-1971 and 1973-1975 - with a decline in industrial production, respectively, by 17%, 9%, 13 %, 7%, 8% and 13%.
The first post-war world crisis began at the end of 1957 and lasted until mid-1958. It engulfed the United States, Great Britain, Canada, Belgium, the Netherlands and some other capitalist countries. Industrial production in the developed capitalist countries fell by 4%.
The army of the unemployed has reached almost 10 million people. Relatively stable economic development of a number of capitalist countries in the 50s and 60s. contributed to the emergence of bourgeois and revisionist theories, asserting that there is supposedly the possibility of a crisis-free development of capitalism on the path of improving the methods of state regulation of economic processes. However, capitalist reality soon refuted these theories. In the early 70s. In the capitalist system, a whole series of violations of the reproduction process arose, which led to the development of another world economic crisis that began in the United States at the end of 1973, and then in 1974 and 1975, which covered almost the entire capitalist world. This crisis in terms of the breadth of coverage of countries, duration, depth and destructive force significantly surpassed the world crisis of 1957-1958 and in a number of characteristics approached the crisis of 1929-1933. During the crisis, industrial production fell in the United States, for example, by 13%, in Japan by 20%, in the Federal Republic of Germany by 22%, in the UK by 10%, in France by 13%, in Italy by 14%. Stock prices in just one year - from December 1973 to December 1974 - fell 33% in the United States, 17% in Japan, 10% in Germany, 56% in Great Britain, 33% in France, and 28% in Italy. The number of bankruptcies in 1974 compared to 1973 increased in the United States by 6%, in Japan by 42%, in the Federal Republic of Germany by 40%, in Great Britain by 47%, and in France by 27%. By mid-1975, the number of fully unemployed in the developed capitalist countries reached 15 million. In addition, more than 10 million were transferred to part-time work or temporarily laid off from enterprises. Everywhere there was a drop in the real income of workers. For example, in the United States, the total real income of workers, which grew by an average of about 3% a year in 1950-70, declined by 6% in the period 1973-75.
The special depth and duration of the world economic crisis of 1973-1975 is explained by the fact that it was intertwined with the strongest inflationary processes in all capitalist countries, with currency and energy crises, aggravation of food and environmental problems. The 1973-1975 crisis demonstrated the limited capacity of the bourgeois state to regulate spontaneous economic processes, the movement of the economy in cycles. The inability of the governments of the capitalist countries to prevent the crisis and find a way out of it speaks of the situation that began in the 70s. the crisis of the state countercyclical regulation itself. With a significantly increased level of socialization of production, a broad and deep internationalization of economic life, the forms and methods of countercyclical regulation developed in the first years after World War II ceased to be effective in the 70s. The main contradiction of capitalism again manifested itself in an acute form.
In the mid-70s, the entire capitalist world was engulfed in a protracted and deep cyclical crisis of overproduction, accompanied by specific processes and phenomena. The crisis began to develop in the fall of 1973 in the United States, Great Britain and the Federal Republic of Germany. In other countries, it began slightly later. Such a synchronicity of the crisis was observed for the first time in the postwar period. It is due to some new phenomena that appeared in the economies of capitalist countries in the 70s, primarily the similarity of the technical and economic level of the leading capitalist countries. The 1973-1975 crisis was the first major post-war crisis for Japan, the Federal Republic of Germany and several other countries. An important feature of the 1973-1975 crisis is that it was intertwined with many non-cyclical structural crises. These are crises of scarcity, not overproduction. They are manifested by a shortage of fuel, raw materials and food on the world market, which entails a significant increase in prices. Raw materials and fuel prices rose especially rapidly in 1974. This growth has gone down in history as the new "price revolution".
The 1973-1975 crisis took place in the context of the global currency crisis, which manifested itself in a sharp decline in the dollar exchange rate, an increase in gold prices and general instability of international trade and financial relations. It was this crisis that was first characterized by such a process as slumpflation: a simultaneous decline in industrial production and a rise in prices (inflation). Economic crises demonstrate the discrepancy between production relations of bourgeois society and its productive forces, reveal the transient nature of the capitalist mode of production, which can only develop at the cost of periodic waste of material and human resources. They convince the working people of the need to fight for a new social system, free from crises, unemployment and exploitation - for socialism.
1.3 Dividing the crisis process into stages
The necessary division of the crisis process into different stages is primarily associated with determining the point and time of the application of measures to influence the crisis, prevent and overcome the crisis. Kristek characterizes the stages of the crisis process in terms of opportunities, potential for overcoming the crisis and early warning about it. Separate stages of the crisis process according to Christek can be described as follows:
1. Stage: potential crisis. The enterprise crisis as a process finds its beginning in the potential phase, i.e. only a possible but not yet real crisis of the enterprise. And due to the absence of reliable symptoms of the crisis, this state of the enterprise is characterized as quasi-normal, i.e. practically like the state in which the enterprise is constantly located, and it gives time a starting point for the emergence of a crisis at the enterprise.
2. Stage: latent / latent crisis. This phase of the crisis process is characterized by a latent, already existing or, with a high probability, a soon beginning crisis, the effects of which are not determined by the standard tools available to the enterprise. But the use of special methods of early recognition allows at this stage to actively influence the latent crisis with the help of preventive measures. In general, at this stage, the potential of the enterprise to overcome the crisis is usually not used in full. The main focus here lies in the application of early warning / recognition systems.
3. Stage: acute surmountable crisis. At this stage, the enterprise begins to directly feel the negative impact of the crisis. Along with this, the intensity of real, against the enterprise, directed destructive influences is increasing, which causes a sharp shortage, time pressure, urgency / urgency of decision-making. With a further decrease alternative options Due to the exhaustion of the available time, the requirements for finding effective solutions to problems (factors of overcoming the crisis) are increasing. At this stage, in order to overcome the crisis, it is necessary to mobilize more and more forces of the enterprise and the reserves available to overcome the crisis are fully exhausted. At this stage, there is still the possibility of overcoming (curbing) the acute crisis, because the available potential for overcoming the crisis is sufficient to cope with the crisis. The requirements for overcoming the crisis are being raised to the limit, and the measures to overcome the crisis must show their effect on improving the situation in the very short period of time available.
4. Stage: acute unavoidable crisis. If it is not possible to curb the acute crisis, then the enterprise enters the last stage of the development of the crisis process, which ends with the liquidation of the enterprise. At this stage, the requirements for overcoming the crisis significantly exceed the available potential. Overcoming the crisis process is not possible, especially because of the absence or unsuccessful measures, actions, because of the extremely strong pressure of time and because of the increasing intensity of destructive influences directed against the enterprise.
2. Economic crises and their types
2.1 The essence of economic crises. The reasons for their occurrence
A crisis is a sharp disruption of the existing balance due to growing imbalances economic indicators... In this interval, there is a decrease in aggregate demand and, as a result, excess supply. As demand decreases, problems arise with the sale of finished goods, and unemployment increases. All economic indicators are declining. All types of income, including wages, investments, profits, as well as prices, begin to decline at a rapid pace. There is an acute shortage of paralyzed capital stored in the form of unsold goods. money to pay fixed costs, so the loan fee is growing rapidly - the rate of interest. The prices of stocks and bonds, as well as other securities, begin to decline, so a wave of bankruptcy and mass business closings sets in. The crisis ends with the onset of depression.
Since the production of goods crosses the border set by the narrow framework of the effective demand of the population, the economic crisis takes on the character of a general overproduction of goods and overaccumulation of capital. It completes one capitalist cycle and clears the ground for the next by rectifying the disturbed proportions between capital accumulation and consumption, the production of means, production and the production of consumer goods. The economic crisis sharply exacerbates the class contradictions, since the entire burden of the disasters they bring falls mainly on the shoulders of the working people. This causes an intensification of the class struggle, in the course of which the self-awareness of the working class, its organization and solidarity grows.
Also, economic crises lead to huge economic losses for society, since during them a significant part of the production apparatus is idle, and hundreds of thousands and even millions of workers lose their jobs. The timing of the onset, the depth and duration of the economic crisis depend, first of all, on the degree of violations of the basic proportions of reproduction during economic booms. But, in addition, crises are capable of self-generation, since during them the purchasing power of workers usually falls (due to increased unemployment and reduced working hours), which further complicates the conditions for the sale of goods and prevents the restoration of a temporary balance between capital accumulation and consumption.
Although the cause of economic crises is the same, each crisis has its own specific features, due to the specific historical conditions in which it develops. Their course is influenced by the peculiarities of the era, and the level of development of capitalism, and the whole complex of economic and political factors acting in a particular country at the time of the unfolding of the crisis.
2.2 Main types of crises
The starting category for understanding economic crises is the concept of the economic cycle. The economic cycle can be defined as the time interval between two qualitatively identical states of the economic environment. Economic fluctuations represent deviations from the stable state of the most important parameters of the economy - production volume, price level, employment, etc.
Business cycles consist of four phases:
Phase of the crisis;
III phase of solution (depression);
Revival phase;
Lifting phase;
Crisis phase:
1. The sale of industrial goods begins to take place with difficulty, and a significant part of the goods is not sold at all.
2. The market prices of goods go down.
3. The mass and rate of profit of firms decreases.
4. Investment activity of firms is stopped for two reasons:
1) It makes no sense to increase the production of goods, since the goods produced earlier have not yet been sold.
2) The mass of firms' profits decreases, and, consequently, the financial capabilities of firms to expand production are reduced.
5. Firms stop repaying loans, and indeed a payments crisis begins. As a result, massive bankruptcies of firms and banks begin, and the interest rate for loans becomes very high, rising from 10-15% to 30-50% per annum. And even at this high interest rate, banks only issue loans to those they trust.
6. Unemployment is increasing significantly.
7. The standard of living of the majority of the country's citizens is noticeably falling.
8. The volume of production of the gross national product is falling sharply.
9. A chronic downtime of production capacities begins (up to 60-70%).
Finally, the economic crisis reaches its lowest point, at which the volume of production of gross national production and market prices do not decrease and unemployment does not increase. Stagnation (recession) begins when production stops.
Solution phase (depression):
The market economy is independently emerging from the crisis. Firms are trying by any means to get at least some profit for their products. And then firms begin fundamental micro-restructuring to reduce production costs and generate average profits at these low prices. For this, firms mobilize all the financial resources they have, take loans from commercial banks at any percentage and begin to produce products that are in demand on the market, while firms refuse to release unprofitable types of products. That is, the structure of production of these firms is changing radically, but for all this they need to renew their fixed capital. Therefore, the investment activity of firms begins, the demand for investment goods begins to increase, and production in other firms begins to expand along the technological chain, which means that demand increases and the market economy gradually exits the depression phase and begins the third phase - the recovery phase. In addition, the crisis clears the market economy of all weak firms that were not very profitable in normal times.
Revitalization phase:
Its characteristic feature is the massive renewal of fixed capital.
This phase continues to operate until the pre-crisis level of gross national product production is reached. And when a massive renewal of fixed capital begins and a significant expansion of production, the recovery phase passes into the recovery phase.
Rise phase:
1. The rates of economic growth and the volume of production of the gross national product are increasing.
2. Trade is brisk and market prices for many products are rising.
3. The mass and rate of profit of firms increases.
4. The market economy gradually comes to full employment of all available production facilities.
5. Wages start to rise.
6. Due to the renewal of fixed capital, labor productivity increases, and on this general basis, wages also rise.
7. The number of unemployed is decreasing.
According to the criterion of duration in the economic literature, three types of economic cycles are distinguished: large (long waves) - 45-60 years; middle - 7-13 years old; small (short) - 3-4 years.
The material basis for small cycles is the massive renewal of durable goods. In small cycles, the crisis is an impetus for modernization and technical improvement of production, and, consequently, for market expansion. Medium (industrial) cycles are associated with changes in demand for equipment and structures, and the demand itself, its value and direction depend, in turn, on the introduction of new technical and technological advances, which is usually carried out in 7-13 years. The material basis of medium cycles is the massive renewal of fixed capital, as a result of which production is improved. However, at some stage, further improvement of production becomes impossible, the old technical system is replaced by another system, the improvement of which takes place in several average cycles. This technical system is also exhausting itself, and a new technological mode of production begins, the length of which corresponds to a large economic cycle (long wave). In large cycles, crisis processes require the introduction of basic innovations. This stimulates not only the growth of production, but also the restructuring of the entire economy and the mechanism of its functioning. Consequently, large cycles are characterized not only by market expansion, but also by the creation of new markets.
It is generally recognized that there is a relationship between all types of business cycles. Long waves absorb shorter cycles. Each long cycle is formed, first of all, as a result of the interaction of scientific and technological progress on the one hand and the entire economic system on the other hand.
Both small and large cycles in the economies of developed countries move relatively synchronously, forming world cycles. Small cycles are an organic part of large cycles. If they arose in the downward phase of large cycles, then they are characterized by the depth of the crisis, the duration of the depression, and the weakness of the rise. The upward phase of large cycles is characterized by small cycles with strong rises and weak depressions.
The economic crisis is one of the phases of the cycle, and it can also be classified according to several criteria:
1) By the nature of the violation of the proportions of reproduction, there are two types:
Ш The crisis of overproduction of goods is the release of an excessive amount of useful things that cannot be sold.
Ш The crisis of underproduction of goods is an acute shortage of them to meet the effective demand of the population.
They will be considered in more detail later.
2) In terms of the scale of imbalance in economic systems, crises are usually divided into general (crises covering the entire national economy) and partial (crises covering any one sphere or branch of the economy).
So, financial crisis - deep disruption of public finances. It manifests itself in permanent budget deficits (when government spending significantly exceeds its revenues). The extreme manifestation of the financial crisis is the insolvency of the state on foreign loans. For example, during the world economic crisis of 1929 - 1933. the UK, France, Germany, Italy stopped payments on foreign loans. And the USA in 1931. deferred all payments on external debts for a year.
Monetary crisis - shock of the monetary system. There is a sharp reduction in bank loans, a massive withdrawal of deposits and the collapse of banks, the chase of the population and entrepreneurs for cash, a fall in stock and bond prices, as well as the rate of bank interest.
Currency crisis it is expressed in the depreciation of the currency of individual countries (lack of foreign "hard" currencies, depletion of foreign exchange reserves in banks, falling exchange rates).
Stock market crisis - a sharp decline in securities prices, a significant reduction in their emissions, deep recessions in the activities of the stock exchange.
Agrarian crisis - This is a sharp deterioration in the sale of agricultural products (falling prices for agricultural products).
Structural crisis caused by the violation of normal relations between the industries (one-sided development of one industry to the detriment of others, the deterioration of the situation in certain types of production). For example, in the mid-70s, great difficulties arose in providing Western countries with raw materials and energy resources.
3) According to the regularity of imbalance in the economy, crises are divided into:
III Periodic crises recur regularly at intervals.
III Intermediates do not give the beginning of a full business cycle and are interrupted at some stage; are less deep and less lasting.
Irregular crises have their own specific causes.
Economic crises have two sides. One of them is destructive. It is associated with the decisive elimination of the existing abnormal proportions in the economy. Often, large surpluses of goods were barbarously destroyed.
The other side is wellness. It is inevitable, because during a depression, a fall in prices makes production unprofitable: it does not give the usual, average profit. Renewal of fixed capital (machinery, equipment) helps to overcome this impasse. This makes it possible to reduce the cost of manufacturing products, to make them sufficiently profitable. As a result, the crisis clears the market economy of all weak firms.
The first type of economic crisis is crisis of overproduction. The essence of economic crises of overproduction is that the basic market equilibrium between supply and demand is upset. Supply goes beyond demand, and if this occurs in a tangible amount, then an economic crisis of overproduction of goods begins.
Several theories can be distinguished according to which economic crises of overproduction appear:
1. According to Marx - the law of surplus value. Its effect is explained as follows: firms strive to get a large mass and rate of profit, for this they try to expand and improve production and produce more and more products. Then firms receive a large mass of profits not only by increasing market prices for their products, but also by increasing the number of units produced and sold, and each unit of output brings firms some small amount of profit. And then the more the number of units of production is produced, the more profit the firms receive. This is the way to make a lot of profit from turnover, even when market prices and production costs are constant. But, increasing production in order to obtain a greater mass of profits, firms do not really look back on the demand for their products. There is demand, so firms want to skim the cream off this good economic situation and are increasing production, and the sale of these products has a rather complex structure: large, medium, small wholesale and retail trade. And now in the retail trade, the hitch in the sale of products is already beginning, but the wholesale network does not yet know about this and continues to buy products from firms. And now, finally, demand restrictions on manufactured products become understandable for all forms of business, but it’s too late, since the supply of goods went beyond the limits of demand, and an economic crisis of overproduction began.
2. Monetary theory of crises. The essence of this theory is that when the economic environment is good and trade is good, the money flow directed to the market economy increases. In other words, the supply of money for a market economy from the central bank, commercial banks and the stock exchange increases, that is, the money supply operating in a market economy increases. As a result, the loan becomes cheaper, firms take such a loan willingly to expand production, and the cash flow increases. Commercial banks need to raise the interest rate on loans, as economic rates go beyond optimal, and thereby reduce the supply of money for a market economy. But everyone commercial bank individually, it is difficult to know when he needs to pause, and the cash flow continues to increase, and then supply goes beyond demand and a crisis of overproduction begins.
3. The theory of underconsumption or the theory of excessive savings. The essence of this theory is that for some reason, households begin to save more of their income compared to how much they saved before. Those. under the influence of some rumors, for example, that soon the ruble exchange rate will rise to unprecedented heights, the population of the country begins to rapidly "hide money under the pillow." And then some part of the gross national product produced in a given year will not be realized. Over-saving can also occur as a result of economic instability in society. As a result, supply goes beyond the limits of demand and a crisis of overproduction begins.
4. The theory of overaccumulation of fixed capital. When there is a good economic environment in a market economy, firms begin to capitalize more and more of their profits to increase and renew fixed capital. In other words, entrepreneurs strive to increase the scale of production as quickly as possible, purchase new equipment and hire more qualified and, accordingly, more expensive specialists. They sometimes even create spare production capacity, assuming that this economic environment will last for a long time. As a result, excess fixed capital accumulates, and when the economic situation worsens, the demand for goods drops sharply and the investment activity of firms slows down. We have to cut staff, and to exploit those who remain in the workplace "to the fullest." As a result, unemployment increases, demand for consumer goods falls, and an overproduction crisis begins in the economy.
The crisis of overproduction and the mechanisms for getting out of it can be considered on the example of the "Great Depression". Until the early 1930s, Western economists were dominated by the idea that economic recessions (crises) were due to random reasons, that the mechanism of market self-regulation, in principle, ensures the correspondence between aggregate demand and supply. This means that this mechanism ensures both the automatic exit of the economy from the crisis, and its next rise on the basis of the renewal of fixed capital and the liquidation of unprofitable enterprises. It happens in the following way. In crisis conditions, obsolete equipment is not able to ensure sustainable growth in production and cannot bring profit to an entrepreneur. Consequently, the entrepreneur suffers losses. To ensure that his business does not fail completely, he strives by any means to get at least some profit for his products. And then he begins a radical restructuring of his enterprise in order to reduce production costs and make a profit. An entrepreneur mobilizes all the resources he has, takes loans from commercial banks at any interest rate and begins to produce products that are in great demand in the market, while refusing to release unprofitable types of products. That is, the production structure of his firm is changing radically. But for all this, he needs to renew his fixed capital. Production in other firms begins to expand along the technological chain, which means that demand increases and the market economy is gradually emerging from the depression phase. Hence the conclusion was drawn about the undesirability and even harm of government intervention in economic life. However, the deep crisis and protracted depression of the 1930s fundamentally contradicted this theory. It became obvious that the mechanism of market self-regulation does not cope with its functions, does not provide an automatic way out of the crisis, which required a transition to active state regulation of the economy.
The theory of state regulation of a market economy was, as you know, built by John Maynard Keynes and his followers. Keynes concluded that a way out of the deep crisis, an increase in production and employment are impossible without the active participation of the state, which should not only stimulate a decrease in the discount rate of commercial banks (percent), but also carry out large-scale government procurement in order to increase effective aggregate demand ... In addition, the state must pay social benefits to the unemployed, the elderly and other disabled members of society in order to prevent a social explosion. The state must ensure full employment of the population and high production growth. The most far-sighted statesmen of Western countries come to the fundamental conclusion that the market mechanism should be supplemented by a mechanism for direct state regulation of the economy.
In the first quarter of the 20th century, the United States was among the world's leading states and the most economically prosperous country. With the transition of industrial capitalism to monopoly capitalism, the center of world economic development shifted from Europe to North America. The US developed the fastest and produced the most. Their share in world production has steadily increased. The position of the United States strengthened even more after the First World War, in particular due to significant profits from the supply of weapons and ammunition to the Entente countries. Industrial production grew rapidly, fixed capital expanded rapidly, and exports increased. Economic successes were the reasons for the birth of the theory of the eternal prosperity of this state. As it turned out later, it was a "great illusion". In 1929. the world economic crisis broke out, which lasted until 1933. inclusively and most impressed the United States.
The next type of economic crisis is the crisis of underproduction. The crisis of underproduction of goods is an acute shortage of goods to meet the effective demand of the population. Underproduction crises are caused by the following reasons:
1. Economic. The raw materials and food crises of the 70s disrupted the proportions of reproduction in Western countries.
2. Natural. These are droughts, floods, crop failures.
3. Social. These are wars and planning flaws in a command economy. For example, the USSR during its existence completely monopolized the economy and based it on a constant shortage of means of production for civilian sectors of the economy and consumer goods. The slowdown in the number of consumer goods over six decades led to the fact that they began to account for only 25% of all industrial production, and the rest was accounted for by military products (in highly developed countries, consumer goods make up 35-45% of production). The economic policy was aimed at strengthening material incentives for workers and social payments to the population. In 1990. the growth of the money supply in society was six times faster than the increase in the domestic national product.
In more detail, the underproduction crisis and the mechanisms for overcoming it can be considered on the example of the global energy crisis.
The stability of the oil market, almost unwavering for decades, wavered noticeably in February 1971, when the Gulf States first achieved a significant increase in oil prices under the OPEC agreement with oil companies.
Note - OPEC is an international intergovernmental organization (also called a cartel) created by oil producing powers to stabilize oil prices.
Leading countries have recovered from the painful blow faster than others. Another thing is more important here: the oil shock caused, first of all, in the mature market economy of these countries the formation and development of new macroeconomic trends, which in turn led to large and progressive structural changes in the entire world economy. The so-called post-industrial development was a direct result of these changes. Explosive expansion information technologies would have turned out to be unthinkable without the strategic relocation of global investment resources in favor of the least energy-intensive areas and investment objects.
Note - Economic expansion is the violent or non-violent expansion of spheres of influence in the field of economics.
In other words, the modern post-industrial economy is largely the product of the energy crisis of the 70s, which hit, first of all, traditional energy-intensive industries and made investments in the development of new, less costly industries more efficient. As for the "old" industries, the crisis here stimulated the development and implementation of energy-saving technologies on an unprecedented scale.Another consequence of the oil crisis of the 70s was the gradual refusal of some developed Western countries from strategic imports of liquid fuel through the development of their own import-substituting oil production. Hydrocarbon resources of the North Sea shelf were mostly explored before the crisis, but their industrial exploitation became expedient only in the new economic conditions, which was not slow to take advantage of the oil workers of Britain and Norway, ensuring their countries' energy independence. In other developed countries of Europe, the fuel crisis caused their restructuring For example, in Denmark and Holland, the consumption of natural gas produced on the coastal shelf of these countries grew at an outstripping rate, and the share of wind power capacity in electricity production was growing.
For less developed countries that do not have their own oil, the consequences of the crisis were more severe. They bought fuel at new prices and had to turn to external sources of financing. Former seller countries also suffered. Since the bulk of these countries' exports is oil, and after the rise in prices and the introduction of the embargo, the level of oil sales fell, the export opportunities of these countries fell sharply.
Although over the past three decades, prices for liquid fuels have not only increased, but also decreased, from time to time, their level since then has not approached the pre-crisis level, invariably exceeding it many times. Therefore, it is permissible to assume that the 1973 oil shock had a multidimensional revolutionary impact on the world and, in particular, on the Soviet national economy. Developed countries have switched to a policy of energy conservation, which after 25 years has yielded results: a decrease in the energy intensity of the gross product by 20 - 30% from the level of the beginning of the 70s. In these countries it is considered even now that the limit in energy saving has not been reached, and the task of efficient use of energy resources is long-term. It can be seen that in the 8-year energy saving program of the Russian Federation, approximately the same rates achieved by developed countries in their time are laid down.
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The first economic crisis occurred in 1825 in England. The first world economic crisis - in 1857. Then came the crises of 1873, 1882 and 1890. The crisis of 1900-1901 was more devastating. The most profound crisis of the XX century. is the world economic crisis of 1929-1933. - The Great Depression. During this period, the decline in production was 40-50%, and the unemployment rate reached 25%. A significant place in modern cyclical reproduction is given to the crises of 1974-1975 and 1980-1982.
In economic theory, the following types of crises are distinguished.
Cyclical crisis overproduction covers all spheres and sectors of the economy. It is characterized by the displacement of obsolete equipment, a decrease in production costs, and a renewal of the production structure, which leads to the creation of a new equilibrium with more efficient production. Cyclical crises of overproduction give rise to a new cycle, during which the economy goes through four successive phases and prepares the basis for the subsequent crisis.
Intermediate crisis differs from cyclical in that it does not give rise to a new cycle, but interrupts for a certain time the course of the ascent or revival phase. An interim crisis is a temporary response to emerging imbalances in the economy. It is less deep, shorter than the cyclical crisis, and is local in nature.
Partial crisis differs from the intermediate in that it covers only one sphere of the economy. It can occur both in the recovery phase and in the recovery and depression phases.
Industry crisis affects any branch of the economy. The reasons for its occurrence may be imbalances in the development of the industry, structural restructuring, overproduction, rising prices for raw materials, an influx of emigrant workers, cheap imports, etc.
Agrarian crises As a rule, they are caused by a combination of natural factors, deficiencies in the organization of labor, technical backwardness, imperfect systems of land use and land tenure, etc. Agrarian crises are lengthy and acyclic.
Structural crisis generated by deep imbalances between the development of individual spheres and sectors of the economy. It is long lasting and covers several cycles. It involves the transformation of the structure of production on a new technological basis. Structural crises can manifest themselves in the form of both relative underproduction and relative overproduction, accompanying the overall economic cycle or not coinciding with it. The largest structural crisis occurred in 1973-1975, when the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), sharply raising oil prices (almost 10 times), aggravated the economic crisis that began in 1974.
World practice shows that the duration and structure of cycles are subject to constant changes. Since the second half of the XX century. the economic cycle actually began to include only two phases: recession and recovery. A recession is understood as the state of the economy when GDP, with a steady decline, becomes two-quarters less, which indicates a decline in production or a slowdown in its development. In fact, a recession combines two phases, crisis and depression. The recovery phase is included in the recovery phase.
According to the classification of the US National Bureau of Economic Research ( NBER) the economic cycle includes the following phases: top (peak, boom), squeeze (recession, recession), bottom (depression, lowest point of recession), recovery (expansion, rise). This classification is shown schematically in Fig. 23.2.
Figure: 23.2.
From the second half of the XX century. the mechanism of crises is undergoing significant changes. The process of overproduction is now accompanied by a rise in prices and increased inflation. This phenomenon is due to the following reasons:
- an increase in government spending, implying additional emission of money, which disrupts money circulation and leads to increased inflation;
- features of monopoly pricing. Monopolies reduce the scale of production and thus prevent prices from falling.
During such crises, industry prices have different growth rates. Investments are moved to where they provide the highest returns. This situation occurs before the moment when a new relationship between industries is formed, corresponding to a different level of economic equilibrium. Crises accompanied by inflation can be protracted and lead to stagnation, i.e. a period of low business activity. As a result, stagflation may arise in the economy - a state of the economy when stagnation is combined with high unemployment and a continuous rise in prices - inflation.
Analysis of the mechanism of the modern cycle shows that the very configuration of the cycle and its reproductive functions are changing, which significantly distinguishes the current cycle from the classical one, i.e. from the cycle of free competition. In the classical cycle, as noted above, the initial and defining phase is the crisis. It is the most important prerequisite for the progressive development of the economy through the renewal of fixed capital, lower production costs, improved quality and increased competitiveness of products. The classical crisis performed its reproductive function mainly through the pricing mechanism.
Currently, the nature of the modern cycle is influenced by a complex of factors that lead to a change in its qualitative characteristics. These factors include:
- monopolistic structure of markets;
- government regulation economics;
- scientific and technical progress;
- the process of globalization (internationalization) of production.
As you know, a monopoly position in the market enables firms to make a profit even with a reduction in production. At the same time, maintaining a high level of prices complicates the process of a one-time massive renewal of capital. Therefore in modern conditions the crisis cannot fully fulfill its "cleansing" function, it does not become the starting point for the massive renewal of fixed capital.
The regulatory role of the state is realized primarily through fiscal policy. During the crisis, to stimulate production growth, government orders to private enterprises, as well as state construction, are expanded. The state is also stepping up tax mechanisms to regulate the scale of investment and consumer demand. An important instrument of countercyclical regulation of the state is the application of monetary policy through a change in accounting, i.e. interest ratewhich the central bank charges when making loans to commercial banks.
The nature of economic cycles is significantly influenced by scientific and technological progress (STP). The increasingly accelerating rates of scientific and technological progress determine the acceleration of the renewal of fixed capital, which is observed at all phases of the cycle, including the crisis phase. As a result, the overproduction of goods as characteristic crisis is replaced by overproduction of capital and chronic underutilization of production. This leads to the erosion of the classical phase-wise dynamics of the cycle and the cyclical nature of reproduction as a whole.
In the context of the globalization of production, under the influence of the international division of labor and the internationalization of economic ties, the cycle began to take on a global character. A crisis in one country entails crisis phenomena in other countries, as a result of which the entire world economy is drawn into cyclical fluctuations. So, in 1974-1975. leading Western countries simultaneously entered the global economic crisis of overproduction. In 1987-1989. in all the leading countries, a cyclical boom also began simultaneously. After a slight recession, which lasted less than a year, in 1990-1991, the United States and the countries of Western Europe again moved synchronously to economic recovery. This is explained by the internationalization of production and the transition of countries to a new technological basis of production, which further enhances the international character of the markets for factors of production (raw materials, materials, equipment, labor) and causes world structural crises.
From the second half of the XX century. the amplitude of fluctuations in business activity also changed: the phases of the economic recession became shorter, and the phases of the rise in production - longer. The amplitude of fluctuations in production volumes also decreased.
For example, in the US, GDP growth in the recovery phase declined from 30.1% in 1919-1938. to 20.9% in 1948-1982, and its decline in the recession phase decreased from 14.1 to 2.5%. The recession of the American economy in 1990-1991, which lasted almost 9 months, led to a decline in real GDP by only 1.4%. This recession was shorter and more moderate than the two recessions that preceded it, 1973-1975 and 1981-1982.
At the beginning of the XXI century. a new world economic crisis began, the emergence of which was caused by the following factors: the general cyclical nature of economic development; imbalances in international trade and capital flows; overheating of the credit and stock market; credit expansion launched in the 1980s and early 2000s, as well as high prices for raw materials (including oil).
The outbreak of the world economic crisis is global, in contrast to a number of previous ones, which is determined by the high level of globalization of the world economy and finance and the beginning of the crisis in the center of the world economy, and not on the "periphery." Thus, the crisis hit, first of all, the US banking system, which led to the virtual disappearance of investment banks.
Global crisis of the XXI century. is systemic in nature, as indicated by the large-scale systemic imbalance in the world economy. The world economy cannot develop in the old way, the resources of economic policy based on the combination of a systematic decline in real wages with the stimulation of consumption. The fall in consumption in the "old" industrial countries leads to the loss of the effectiveness of the economic model based on the use of cheap labor in developing countries. A further reduction in commodity prices due to a reduction in the cost of labor is impossible, since its resources are almost exhausted. Inflation is one of the manifestations of the global crisis and is generated by a change in the balance between commodity and money supply in the economy. A significant part of securities, residential real estate is depreciating, and the purchasing power of the population is decreasing.
In 2008 and 2009. most politicians and economists predicted an imminent end of the crisis. However, there were also alternative opinions. In particular, the Russian economist M. Khazin estimated the duration of the crisis at 5–8 years. In 2011-2012 more and more economists began to talk about the prolonged nature of the crisis. It is especially emphasized that the crisis is far from over and it continues to develop. At present, the global economic crisis manifests itself mainly in the financial sphere: in the destabilization of stock markets, bank losses, inflation growth, capital appreciation.
An economic crisis is a sharp deterioration in the economic condition of the country, manifested in a significant decline in production, disruption of existing production ties, bankruptcy of enterprises, an increase in unemployment and, as a result, a decrease in living standards and welfare of the population.
The essence of the economic crisis is manifested in the overproduction of goods in relation to the effective aggregate demand, the violation of the process of the conditions for the reproduction of social capital, massive bankruptcies of firms, the growth of unemployment and other socio-economic shocks.
The main function of the crisis is the destruction of those elements that are the least stable and viable and most disturb the organization of the whole. There is a simplification of the system and an increase in its harmony.
In the economy, the crisis destroys many of the weakest and least expediently organized enterprises, discarding outdated methods of production and forms of organization of enterprises in favor of more modern ones. The general downfall also involves many advanced enterprises.
The reasons for the crisis can be different. They are divided into objective (related to the needs of modernization and reconstruction) and subjective (reflecting mistakes and voluntarism in management).
Crises are diverse in their essence, causes and consequences. It is necessary to systematize (classify) them in a certain way in order to manage them more effectively by forming adequate means.
On the issue of the crisis, macro and micro crises can be distinguished. Macro-crisis covers large volumes and scale of problems, micro-crisis - only a separate problem or group of problems. A local, or micro-crisis, can spread to the entire system as a chain reaction, because there is an organic interaction of all elements in the system and the problems are not solved separately.
Economic crises are crises in the production and sale of goods and services.
Social crises reflect contradictions in the interests of various social groups, among them political crises - crises of power, which often lead to economic crises - occupy a special place.
Organizational crises manifest themselves as paralysis (or sudden deterioration) in organizational performance. Organizational cycles are most clearly manifested when the stages of the life cycle of enterprises and their products change.
Psychological crises are crises of the psychological state of people, the symptoms of which are stress, panic, fear, dissatisfaction, a feeling of insecurity, that is, crises of the socio-psychological climate.
The technological crisis is associated with the aggravation of contradictions in the development and implementation of new technological solutions in the process of changing the technological structure. These are crises of scientific and technological progress.
Environmental crises sharply worsen the living conditions of people. These are crises in the relationship between man and nature, caused by a disdain for the requirements of the law of natural balance.
Explicit crises are noticeable and easy to detect. Latent ones are less noticeable and therefore much more difficult to avoid or contain.
Deep, or acute, crises can lead to the destruction of various structures of the economic system, here many contradictions are tied into a complex tangle. Such crises are usually protracted. Mild, or mild, crises are less painful, they are more manageable, more often short-term.
Crises can also be predictable and unexpected.
Predictable crises come as a stage of development, they can be predicted and are caused by objective reasons for the accumulation of factors for the emergence of a crisis - the needs of production restructuring, a change in the structure of interests under the influence of scientific and technological progress.
A type of predictable crisis is a cyclical crisis. Of course, if the nature of the crisis and its nature are known and studied. It can arise periodically and has certain phases of its onset and course.
Unexpected crises are often the result of gross errors in management, or some natural phenomenon, or economic dependence, which contributes to the expansion and spread of local crises.
There are also crises, explicit (occurring noticeably and easily detected) and latent (latent, proceeding relatively unnoticed and therefore the most dangerous).
All possible crises are also divided into protracted and temporary. The time factor in crisis situations plays an important role. Protracted crises are usually painful and difficult. They are often the result of inability to manage crisis situations, lack of understanding of the essence and nature of the crisis, its causes and possible consequences.
Depending on the nature of economic downturns, their coverage of various spheres or sectors of the national economy, it is necessary to distinguish between the following types of economic crises: cyclical, intermediate, structural, partial, sectoral.
Cyclical crises are periodically recurring downturns in social production that paralyze business and labor activity (activity) in all spheres of the national economy and give rise to a new cycle of economic activity.
Intermediate crises are sporadic recessions in social production, which temporarily interrupt the stages of recovery and recovery of the national economy. Unlike cyclical crises, they do not give rise to a new cycle, are local in nature and are short-lived.
Structural crises are associated with a gradual and long-term growth of inter-sectoral imbalances in social production and are characterized by the inconsistency of the existing structure of social production with the changed conditions for the efficient use of resources. They cause long-term shocks and require for their resolution a relatively long period of adaptation to the changed conditions of the process of social reproduction.
A striking example of the global structural crisis is the energy crisis that developed in the mid-1970s, which took more than 5 years for the national economies of industrialized countries to adapt to the new structure of energy prices (the price jump exceeded a 4-5-fold increase). As a result, both technologically, financially and economically, national economies were forced to orient and adapt industries and production to energy-saving technologies and changes in the structure of consumed energy carriers.
Partial crises are associated with a drop in economic activity in large areas of activity. In particular, we are talking about money circulation and loans, the banking system, stock and foreign exchange markets. The world currency crisis of the 70s, as is known, caused the transition from the Bretton Woods monetary system to the 1976 Jamaican Agreement, according to which gold ceased to play the role of world money and turned into one of the commodities. The biggest crisis is well known banking system Germany 1932.
Sectoral crises are characterized by declines in production and the curtailment of economic activity in one of the industries, the national economy. The history of such crises is most fully traced in the coal, steel, textile, shipbuilding industries.
Seasonal crises are caused by the impact of natural and climatic factors that disrupt the accepted rhythm of economic activity. In particular, a delay in the onset of spring could trigger a crisis in the utilities sector due to lack of fuel.
World crises are determined by the coverage of both individual industries and spheres of economic activity on a global scale, and the entire world economy.
Thus, a wide variety of crises are generated by a huge number of reasons. Anti-crisis management exists in order, if possible, to avoid a crisis (to prevent its occurrence), and if this is impossible - to limit the development of the crisis and mitigate its consequences.
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