Stock. Shares Gazprom's market capitalization for the year
Capitalization of Sberbank by 5.2 billion rubles, reaching 5.234 trillion rubles. Since the beginning of trading on the Moscow Exchange " Gazprom”Has risen in price by 3% to 5.23 trillion rubles, while the cost of Sberbank decreased by 0.1% to 5.22 trillion rubles.
Gazprom shares are rising amid news that the company is developing a new dividend policy. Information about this is contained in the presentation of the gas holding. Adopt a new dividend policy " Gazprom"Plans already this year, in the next two or three years the company expects to start paying shareholders 50% of net profit under IFRS, said earlier the head of the financial department of" Gazprom "Alexander Ivannikov.The company's presentation also said that at the end of 2018, “Gazprom "Is going to pay record dividends - 16.61 rubles. per share (393.2 billion rubles, or 25.7% of net profit). At the same time, according to Ivannikov, the company will not pay dividends from "virtual" profits: "We will clear the profits from paper profits."
Following the shares of Gazprom, the Mosbirzh index soared, which on Monday for the first time in history exceeded the mark of 2700 points (p.). By 13.06 Moscow time, it rose to 2743.81 p. - this is a new historical maximum. In the structure of the Moscow Exchange index, Gazprom shares the largest weight - 16.71%.
The second company in terms of capitalization " Gazprom”Became May 14th. Then the value of the company increased by 16.52% and amounted to 4.49 trillion rubles. The historical maximum in terms of the capitalization of Gazprom was recorded on May 19, 2008 - 8.7 trillion rubles.
« Gazprom"Was the most expensive Russian company until April 2016 - then" Rosneft”For the first time overtook the gas holding in value - the oil company's quotes rose thanks to good reporting, while there was no positive news from Gazprom at that time. In August 2016 " Gazprom»Moved to third place in terms of capitalization, yielding second place Sberbank... After " Gazprom”For some time was inferior to“ Lukoil ”and even“ Novatek ”.
Investors have long been upset by Gazprom's rather modest dividends, which, coupled with the unpredictability of the investment program, the volume of tax withdrawals and political risks, negatively affected capitalization, says Dmitry Marinchenko, senior director of the corporate department at Fitch. “The recent rise in share price is almost entirely due to the increase in dividend payments and the hope that the new level will become the norm. Interestingly, this is happening against the backdrop of a significant drop in gas prices in Europe and intensified competition with LNG, including the American one, which will likely lead to a drop in exports by the end of the year. It is not yet clear to what extent the deterioration in the market situation has been taken into account in the current quotes, ”says Marinchenko.
Against the backdrop of news about the planned revision of the dividend policy, the growth in capitalization is natural, says Raiifeisenbank analyst Andrei Polishchuk. If the latest statements by top management are accompanied by an increase in profitability and a decrease in capital expenditures, then the current level of 5 trillion rubles. - not the limit, says Polishchuk. According to Raiffeisenbank estimates, the fair value of one Gazprom share is now around RUB 255, which corresponds to a capitalization of just over RUB 6 trillion.
Gazprom shares on Tuesday became the leader of growth among other blue chips. The company's capitalization has grown by 100 billion rubles. The reason for such positive dynamics was the statement by Russian President Vladimir Putin that the company's shares were undervalued. In addition, investors' attention to the securities was attracted by a potential increase in dividends - up to 50% of net income under IFRS. Experts believe that the growth of Gazprom shares may continue in the coming days. However, they doubt that it will be long lasting.
The locomotive of yesterday's growth in the stock market was the shares of Gazprom, which added about 3% in price. On the eve of Vladimir Putin said that the holding's securities, which have recently lagged behind the market, are "undervalued." Gazprom is clearly underestimated, this is an absolutely obvious fact. We are not going to sell it yet, and this is due to the peculiarities of the Russian economy, social sphere and Russian energy sector, ”Vladimir Putin said in an interview with Bloomberg.
The agency recalled that the gas monopoly's revenue over the past decade amounted to more than $ 1 trillion, but over the same time, market capitalization fell by more than 80% in dollar terms amid growing shale gas production in the United States, stagnation of the economies of the company's largest European clients and a collapse in prices for oil.
Vladimir Putin also noted that he was not worried about the company's quotes, noting the stability of Gazprom as a state concern and its central role in the socio-economic life of the country. In addition, he stressed that the company is increasing exports to Europe, which is currently reducing its own production, and is building the first pipeline to China. And the forecast for the growth of global gas demand remains good. “We know what Gazprom is, what it is worth and what it will cost,” the Russian president said.
Investors remembered about Gazprom shares. The capitalization of the national treasure has grown by 3%, or 100 billion rubles, to 3.3 trillion rubles. Since 2009, most Russian securities, including Sberbank, Rosneft, MTS, Bashneft, have grown exponentially. At the same time, the shares of Gazprom for seven years have been “marking time” at levels of 130–160 rubles, ”said Roman Tkachuk, senior analyst at Alpari.
According to him, there were undoubtedly objective reasons for this - a decrease in exchange prices for gas (in 2008 they fell 2-3 times and have not risen since then), protracted negotiations on gas supplies to China and large-scale investment costs.
Yesterday Vladimir Putin's statement about the underestimation of Gazprom and the potential increase in dividends make investors take a closer look at this paper and may become drivers for its growth, - noted Roman Tkachuk.
We will remind, yesterday it became known that the Ministry of Finance of Russia has developed a draft order on the introduction of an indefinite norm, obliging state-owned companies to pay dividends in the amount of at least 50% of net profit under IFRS.
- Gazprom is underestimated not only in relation to its Western counterparts, but also to the Russian market. The index of the largest companies on the Moscow Stock Exchange MICEX10 has risen by 15% since the beginning of the year, while the growth of Gazprom shares over the same period could barely exceed 3%. At the same time, the company has been demonstrating stable IFRS net profit for three quarters in a row, - says Dmitry Lukashov, an analyst at IFC Markets.
He noted that Gazprom shares are now trading at an absurdly low P / E ratio of 3.1.
I believe that the main reason for this is the political risks associated with the terms of the third energy package in the EU. If some of them are leveled, then, in my opinion, one can count on a vigorous rise in Gazprom's quotes. It is difficult to determine specific price levels now, but shares may well rise in price by about a third of the current levels, - Dmitry Lukashov believes.
However, TeleTrade analyst Anastasia Ignatenko believes that apart from “verbal interventions” there is no other reason for the growth of Gazprom shares.
After the peaks set in 2007, the stock has dropped 2.64 times, making it perhaps the worst blue-chip stock in the last decade. Gazprom has long been in need of reforms, especially in terms of corporate governance, she said. Anastasia Ignatenko noted that the paper is traded at 140 rubles and a break in the technical picture should be expected only if the level of 142 rubles is exceeded.
But even in this case, we can only talk about the presence of speculative potential for growth, for signals of the medium-term plan to appear, the price needs to go beyond the 165-170 rubles zone, no less, - she believes.
Roman Tkachuk believes that the growth of Gazprom shares may continue in the coming days. In his opinion, the current target of the rise is seen at the level of 150 rubles. If the news about the increase in dividends of the "gas monopoly" is confirmed and there is progress in negotiations with China, the shares may well rise to 200 rubles.
If we recall the history, then at the peak in 2008 they gave 367 rubles per share in Gazprom, ”he recalled.
Financial expert of Analytica Online, Sergey Dushechkin, agrees that the rise in share prices will continue for some time, but it is unlikely that it will be long-term, since the pressure of sellers will not disappear anywhere.
The ceiling for any nascent growth will be the levels of 155-160 rubles per share, which will be quite difficult to go above in the current economic and political situation. And the achievement of the above values is also under a big question, - he concluded.
Natural gas production in Russia has been one of the most profitable areas for quite some time. The entire territory of the country is full of deposits of this resource. Gas is produced by the transnational corporation Gazprom. There are several other small companies, but they are affiliated with Gazprom and do not conduct separate activities from them.
About concern
Gazprom is the largest organization in the world for gas production, processing and sale to all segments of the population. In addition to activities related to gas production activities, the company is engaged in the following:
- oil production;
- sale of fuel among the population;
- export of resources to other countries.
In addition, Gazprom is the owner of the largest natural gas reserves: the share of the entire world is 16.9%, in the Russian Federation - 60%.
Trunk gas pipelines in Russia also belong to this company. And the supply of gas to other countries is also carried out by moving the resource through the pipes of Gazprom.
According to the data published on the organization's website, it can be said that all that the company strives for is to provide its consumers with gas in a timely manner and sufficiently, and, in addition, to comply with intergovernmental agreements and not allow doubts about its reliability.
But the ultimate goal of Gazprom is to enter the world arena as a global company.
Are the shares of the concern popular?
As you know, the gas giant is very popular among the population. Gazprom shares are the most attractive capital investment option. The state is also among the shareholders, while it takes the first place.
The state-owned company Rosneftegaz also bought back part of Gazprom's shares. Thanks to this action, the state became the owner of a controlling stake, which is 50.002%.
Judging by the demand for shares, it will no longer be surprising that Gazprom is in the top ten in the ratings of the largest corporations on the planet. On the other hand, according to Bloomberg journalist Anders Asland, "No major company in the world is managed as ineptly as Russia's Gazprom."
What predictions were there until 2015?
Taking into account the development of gas production activities since the start of Gazprom's work, the shareholders were confident that this company will always be in value. For example, during 2005 the share price grew at a tremendous rate. Gazprom's capitalization has changed over the years only in a positive way. 2006 was also significant, because it was in this year that the corporation entered the top ten of the rating of the most
The market capitalization of Gazprom in 2007 was about $ 300 billion. No one doubted the monumental gas giant. The top manager was going to implement his plans, which included even greater capitalization of the company (Gazprom).
Was the most successful for the corporation. Then the maximum capitalization of Gazprom was observed, which amounted to $ 365.1 billion.
The corporation was hit hard in 2014. The unrest in Ukraine has led to a decrease in use among Ukrainian citizens. Countries have effectively terminated the fuel supply agreement.
By these events, one could judge the beginning of the fall of the gas giant, because Ukraine bought about 10% of the resource supplied by Russia.
What happened to Gazprom in 2015?
This was a bad year for the corporation. Over the course of several months, capitalization fell, and Gazprom was worth just over $ 40 billion in value. Cost competitors, that is, Sberbank and Rosneft, were growing in price, while the gas giant tilted more and more.
Nevertheless, at the time of 2015, the corporation was the leader in the rating based on information from the Moscow Exchange.
If we analyze what was the capitalization of Gazprom from 2014 to 2015, the dynamics by years will show a decline by as much as 20%. Such numbers for one year can signal a very precarious position for a company.
Accordingly, the gas production activity itself has decreased. Production dropped to 414 billion cubic meters. These figures are the lowest, and the capacity of Gazprom's equipment is designed for a large scale.
Competition: Gazprom - Rosneft
As you know, competitors even politically try to influence the progress of the concern. The vice-president of Rosneft advocated the abolition of the export monopoly of Gazprom. There were also demands from rivals to split the gas giant into small companies.
In addition, judging by the current competitive capitalization, Gazprom may be ousted from the first positions in the world market.
In April 2016, trading on the London Stock Exchange took Rosneft to a higher level for the first time. Capitalization also increased, while Gazprom fell behind by $ 18 million.
Gazprom shares versus Sberbank shares
It was not only Rosneft that influenced the fall of the corporation. At the end of August 2016, ordinary shares of Sberbank suddenly exceeded the capitalization of Gazprom shares.
The two largest corporations in Russia clashed at the Moscow Exchange. The capitalization of Sberbank suddenly exceeded the value of Gazprom by more than 100 billion rubles. And this is far from the limit, especially considering the current depreciation of Gazprom shares.
What made 2016 stand out for the gas corporation?
As mentioned above, competitors in exchange trading began to gradually put pressure on the concern, decimated by the events of 2014. Over the seven years (from 2008 to 2015), capitalization decreased almost tenfold, Gazprom was losing its positions on world stock exchanges.
Oddly enough, despite a desperate struggle with rivals, the corporation was able to raise its value at auction to almost $ 100 billion. Of course, when comparing the maximum and today's results, this is still not enough.
One can ask for a long time the question of the negative attitude of potential shareholders towards Gazprom. One thing is clear: forecasts for the development of the corporation for 2017 are rather disappointing.
What does the bankruptcy of Gazprom threaten with?
To begin with, we must not forget that the corporation is currently busy with the construction of a gas pipe with a length of two and a half thousand kilometers. The cost of such construction is about thirty billion euros. In addition, the construction of new gas pipelines leads Russia only to huge costs and a decrease in the volume of fuel production.
Also, Gazprom is betting on an increase in export prices for gas transit. According to experts, this step is ill-considered and may lead to the ruin of the company. The buyer is always looking for a cheaper one, an expensive product of the same quality does not cause a desire to buy it.
If the gas giant really goes bankrupt, more than four hundred thousand people are at risk of losing their jobs. Gas prices for the population and business in general will skyrocket to unbelievable levels. Despite the fact that Russia is the richest country with gas deposits, it can still be left without this fuel.
Strange can be considered the reaction of President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin to the remark about the fall of the corporation. He believes that there is absolutely nothing dangerous in this fact, focusing on the absence of an alternative to natural gas.
The problem also exists in the negative impact of Gazprom's difficulties on the state budget. Indeed, more than ten percent of the country's financial condition was provided by the corporation's income. And the entire oil and gas arsenal is generally forty percent. With the possible bankruptcy of Gazprom, there is a huge risk to the stability of the state's economy as a whole. To prepare for possible problems, it is necessary now to revise the country's economic course.
Even if we take into account what was the capitalization of Gazprom over the years, and soundly assess the situation based on facts, it is impossible to predict the exact development of the situation.
The largest Russian gas monopoly, Gazprom, is rapidly losing its position on the Russian market. The company is sharply losing capitalization and is now yielding the laurels of primacy to its competitor, Novatek. Why do such metamorphoses occur with the leader, and is there a way out for the company?
At the end of September it became known that Gazprom had ceased to be the world's largest energy company. The Russian gas monopoly has made an impressive drop in the international rating of S&P Global Platts from 1st place to 17th. Such a redistribution of forces in the global energy market is akin to a small revolution, because no one expected that such problems could befall a company that supplies gas to most European countries.
On the domestic market, Gazprom also went wrong. Since the beginning of the year, the company lost its leadership in capitalization to Rosneft, and then dropped below Lukoil. The most painful thing is that Gazprom lost the leadership among gas companies to its competitor, Novatek.
The paradox of the situation is that Gazprom is one of the recognized global suppliers of "blue fuel", is implementing projects of trunk gas pipelines, and is in the spotlight. Novatek has a very modest business in comparison with the gas monopoly. At the same time, the capitalization of Novatek and Gazprom is now comparable.
On the eve, the problems of Gazprom were in the center of attention of experts at the round table "Battle for Europe: the prospects of Russian companies in the international gas market." How did industry experts assess the current state of affairs?
Ambition or calculation?
It is noteworthy that the capitalization of Gazprom is declining, while the market value of other Russian energy companies is only growing.
Thus, in the first half of 2018, Gazprom shares on the London Stock Exchange fell by 10%. Novatek, on the other hand, immediately added 32% of capitalization, Rosneft showed an increase of 30%, and Lukoil - by 17%.
Experts have already told Constantinople that the increase in the market value of Russian energy companies is largely due to the rise in prices for supplied raw materials. The purchase of their shares, therefore, is considered an attractive investment among investors. However, how did Gazprom manage not to gain, but to lose against this background?
The market does not believe in the effectiveness of Gazprom's investments. The company has increased capex by 1.5 trillion rubles and is revising its capex program annually upward. The constant increase in capex forecasts negatively affects the capitalization of the monopoly,
Senior analyst at BCS Sergey Suverov said.
Ambition also played a trick on the company. Yes, Gazprom is building Nord Stream 2 and Turkish Stream; there are a considerable number of projects no less significant for importers. However, at the same time, the head of Gazprom, Alexei Miller, said in 2008 that the holding would soar in value within 10 years and reach the cherished goal of $ 1 trillion of capitalization. However, this did not happen, and the market does not forgive such miscalculations.
Alexey Miller, head of Gazprom. Photo: StockphotoVideo / Shutterstock.com
In the end, everyone suffered losses: the company itself, the state as the main shareholder, and even residents of Russia. In 2008, Gazprom's capitalization was $ 360 billion. Then, instead of skyrocketing to the $ 1 trillion target, it dropped sevenfold.
According to experts, the government lost more than $ 140 billion due to the fall in the value of Gazprom shares. This means that over the past decade, every resident of Russia has lost $ 1,000.
Gazprom produces a little less than 500 billion cubic meters, Novatek (taking into account its share in Yamal LNG after the full launch of the project by 2020) will produce no more than 70-80 billion cubic meters. However, the market believes more in Novatek, - said Suverov.
Experts linked this fact with the projects that are more understandable for investors, which are supervised by Novatek. For example, we are talking about the Arctic LNG-2 project, which investors like with a more transparent investment policy and lower risks in comparison with the “politicized” projects of Gazprom.
Fire, water and copper pipes
Experts noted that Gazprom, as the main state-owned gas company, must promote the most global energy projects. Gas from Russia goes to Europe via pipelines, and new branches are also being built. This method of delivery has really worked well, but pipelines as the basis of business are becoming a thing of the past, experts say.
Gazprom, with its pipeline gas philosophy, hinders the development of the Russian gas industry and jeopardizes our country's strategic positions in the global gas market,
Aton analyst Alexander Kornilov said.
He noted that Novatek, in turn, sensed the prospects for LNG supplies in time and is using them effectively. Gazprom, however, announced earlier about the colossal unprofitability of its LNG projects, which, according to company representatives, no longer make sense.
“Over the past 10 years, the export of LNG in the world has grown by almost 1.9 times - by 87%. At the same time, the export of pipeline gas increased by 6%. This suggests that the gas market is no longer a seller's market. Buyers dictate the rules, ”said Mikhail Delyagin, head of the Institute for Globalization Problems.
Indeed, it is cheaper to supply gas via pipelines - there are almost no transportation costs. At the same time, pipes are tied to specific suppliers and transit countries. This means that it will not be possible to reorient supplies in the event of a complication in the foreign policy situation. If both factors are considered a kind of "mines", then Gazprom managed to step on both: it did not develop LNG projects and then got problems with pipelines due to the political situation.
Photo: evgenii mitroshin / Shutterstock.com
Development ways
Experts noted that large-scale liberalization of the Russian market is needed to get Gazprom out of the crisis. Investors are deeply concerned that a government-linked company controls the lion's share of supplies.
Why is it bad for the rest? First of all, it turns out that Gazprom is taking away market share from independent producers. Which, by the way, could be more modern and successfully enter world markets, competing with American companies.
At the same time, Gazprom itself lost its sales markets, hence the decline in production by 15%. Among the reasons, experts identified not only geopolitics and Russia's difficult relationship with partners, but also the policy of the company itself.
“I think no one will argue that there is no such practice in the world when state-owned companies have a monopoly on the export of energy resources. That is, it is such a specific Russian thing that undermines the development of the market as a whole, ”said Sergei Suverov.
Thus, Gazprom should focus on not only diversifying supplies, but also expanding transport opportunities. However, it is obvious that the company will still closely deal with pipelines, since they have been elevated to the status of state projects. From this point of view, the company found itself hostage to the very principle, which implies at the same time a combination of a monopoly with a state-owned company.
For the first time, Rosneft overtook Gazprom in capitalization, both in Moscow and London. The ruble price of oil company shares reaches a historic high
Rosneft on Monday overtook Gazprom in market capitalization for the first time. At 13.40 Moscow time, the value of the oil company on the Moscow Exchange was 3.468 trillion rubles, the gas concern - 3.450 trillion rubles. By the end of the trading day, Rosneft lost its leadership on this site (its capitalization amounted to 3.44 trillion rubles against 3.49 trillion rubles for Gazprom). But at the close of trading on the London Stock Exchange, Rosneft was still ahead of its competitor: there its capitalization at the end of the day amounted to almost $ 51.67 billion (plus 4.2% compared to the opening of trading), and Gazprom - $ 51.49 billion (plus 1.21%).
The ruble price of Rosneft shares on Monday also renewed its historic maximum - at the close of trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange, the company's share cost 325 rubles. a piece. The previous record was 318.05 rubles. per share - was set on March 22. During the day, the company's shares went up by 2.69%, while the MICEX index rose by 1.58%. The price of Brent crude on Monday rose 1.81% to $ 42.68 per barrel.
Rosneft owes the new record, first of all, to the rise in oil prices (since the lows of the beginning of the year, Brent has already risen in price by 50%), say analysts interviewed by RBC. On the other hand, the situation on the gas market plays against Gazprom - European prices are at a historic low of $ 130 per 1,000 cubic meters. m, says the senior analyst of Aton Alexander Kornilov, the concern also has no prospects to increase supplies to Europe, taking into account the end of the heating season.
Financial results
Rosneft's revenue in 2015 decreased by 6% (to RUB 5.15 trillion), but EBITDA increased immediately by 17.8% (up to 1.25 trillion rubles). The net profit of the state-owned company in rubles increased by 2%, amounting to 355 billion rubles. Devaluation helped: in dollar terms, Rosneft's profit fell by 34.4%. Rosneft's net debt in dollar terms at the end of the year decreased by 47%, to $ 23.2 billion, the debt to EBITDA ratio was 1.12.
Gazprom has not yet reported under IFRS for 2015. According to Renaissance Capital's forecasts, the gas concern's EBITDA will be RUB 1.98 trillion, net profit - 780 billion rubles.
The growth in the capitalization of Rosneft is also due to the fact that the state-owned company is included in the privatization plan, said Renaissance Capital analyst Ildar Davletshin. Investors expect that this year 19.5% of the shares of the state-owned company may be up for sale. Since the beginning of the year, Rosneft's receipts in London have risen by 40% against 18% for Gazprom. So far, the state oil company is ahead of both private LUKOIL (plus 30%) and the entire Russian energy sector (plus 22%) in growth rates, the expert says. For comparison, during the same time, quotations of the world oil majors in the oil industry grew by only 2%, while those of companies in developing countries - by 5%. Finally, in London, the quotes of Rosneft are supported by low liquidity of ADR - in the growing market the demand for its securities is growing faster than that of the gas monopoly, Davletshin said.
Compared to Gazprom, Rosneft now looks like a more flexible, stable and promising company, even with a large debt, says Valery Nesterov, an analyst at Sberbank CIB ... The gas concern's quotes are under pressure from large-scale infrastructure projects abroad, the prospects of which remain in question. The Bloomberg agency, with reference to the interviewed experts, admitted that Rosneft in 2016 could catch up with Gazprom in capitalization. Gazprom is facing stiffening competition and falling prices to lows in more than a decade in the European market, and also has to spend billions of dollars on new gas pipelines, said Andrei Polishchuk, an analyst at Raiffeisenbank in a recent comment to Bloomberg.