The method of absolute differences and other methods of economic analysis. The main tasks of the internal analysis of the organization's activities should be considered
The role of analysis
Subject and method of AHD
Product quality analysis
Competitiveness analysis
Analysis of the product range
Analysis of the rhythm of production
Analysis of marriage and losses from marriage
Assessment of movement and technical condition of the OS
Analysis of capital productivity of fixed assets
Assessment of the level of utilization of production capacity
Analysis of the organization's labor resources
Analysis of selling expenses
Analysis of the cost per ruble of goods produced
Solvency assessment
Financial leverage
The role of analysis
Currently, AHD occupies an important place among the economic sciences. It is considered as one of the production management functions.
Economic analysis precedes decisions and actions, substantiates them and is the basis of scientific production management, ensures its objectivity and efficiency. Thus, economic analysis is a management function that ensures scientific decision-making.
The role of analysis as a production management tool is increasing every year. This is due to various circumstances. At first, the need for a steady increase in production efficiency due to the growing shortage and cost of raw materials, an increase in the science and capital intensity of production. Secondly, a departure from the command-and-control system of management and a gradual transition to market relations. Thirdly, the creation of new forms of management in connection with the denationalization of the economy, the privatization of enterprises and other measures of economic reform.
An important role is assigned to analysis in determining and using reserves for increasing production efficiency. It promotes the economical use of resources, the identification and implementation of advanced experience, the scientific organization of labor, new technology and production technology, the prevention of unnecessary costs, etc.
So, AHD is an important element in the production management system, an effective means of identifying on-farm reserves, the basis for the development of scientifically based plans and management decisions.
Subject and method of AHD
Under subject economic analysis understands the business processes of enterprises, their socio-economic efficiency and the final financial results of activities, formed under the influence of objective and subjective factors, reflected through the system of economic information.
Method economic analysis is a way of approaching the study of economic processes in their smooth development.
Characteristic features of the method economic analysis are:
determination of a system of indicators that comprehensively characterize the economic activities of organizations;
establishing the subordination of indicators with the allocation of cumulative effective factors and factors (main and secondary) influencing them;
identifying the form of the relationship between factors;
the choice of techniques and methods for studying the relationship;
quantitative measurement of the influence of factors on the aggregate indicator.
The set of techniques and methods that are used in the study of economic processes is economic analysis methodology .
The method of economic analysis is based on the intersection of three areas of knowledge: economics, statistics and mathematics.
Economic methods of analysis include comparison, grouping, balance and graphical methods.
Statistical methods include the use of means and relative values, the index method, correlation and regression analysis, etc.
Mathematical methods can be divided into three groups: economic (matrix methods, theory of production functions, theory of input-output balance); methods of economic cybernetics and optimal programming (linear, nonlinear, dynamic programming); methods of operations research and decision-making (graph theory, game theory, queuing theory).
Characteristics of the basic techniques and methods of AHD
Comparison- comparison of the studied data and the facts of economic life. Distinguish between horizontal comparative analysis, which is used to determine the absolute and relative deviations of the actual level of the studied indicators from the base; vertical comparative analysis used to study the structure of economic phenomena; trend analysis used to study the relative growth rates and growth rates of indicators over a number of years to the level of the base year, i.e. when studying the series of dynamics.
Average values- are calculated on the basis of mass data on qualitatively homogeneous phenomena. They help to determine general patterns and trends in the development of economic processes.
Groupings- are used to study the dependence in complex phenomena, the characteristics of which are reflected by homogeneous indicators and different values (characteristics of the equipment fleet by the time of commissioning, at the place of operation, by the shift factor, etc.)
Balance method consists in comparison, commensuration of two sets of indicators striving for a certain balance. It allows you to identify a new analytical (balancing) indicator as a result.
Graphical way. Graphs are a scaled representation of indicators and their dependencies using geometric shapes.
Index method is based on relative indicators expressing the ratio of the level of a given phenomenon to its level, taken as a comparison base. Statistics names several types of indices that are used in the analysis: aggregate, arithmetic, harmonic, etc.
Correlation and regression (stochastic) analysis method is widely used to determine the tightness of the relationship between indicators that are not in functional dependence, i.e. the connection is manifested not in each individual case, but in a certain dependence.
Matrix Models are a schematic reflection of an economic phenomenon or process using scientific abstraction. The most widely used method of analysis is input-output, which is built according to a checkerboard pattern and allows one to present the relationship between costs and production results in the most compact form.
Mathematical programming- is the main tool for solving problems of optimizing production and economic activities.
Operations Research Method is aimed at studying economic systems, including the production and economic activities of enterprises, in order to determine such a combination of structurally interrelated elements of systems, which will most effectively determine the best economic indicator from a number of possible ones.
Game theory as a section of operations research, it is a theory of mathematical models for making optimal decisions in conditions of uncertainty or conflict of several parties with different interests.
Product quality analysis
Product quality- a set of properties of products capable of satisfying certain needs in accordance with its purpose. The quantitative characteristic of one or more properties of a product that make up its quality is called an indicator of product quality.
Distinguish between generalizing individual and indirect quality indicators. TO summary quality indicators include: - specific and quality weight of products in the total volume of its output; - the proportion of products that meet international standards; - the share of exported products, including to highly developed industrial countries; - the share of certified products. Individual indicators characterize the usefulness (fat content of milk, protein content in the product, etc.), reliability (durability, trouble-free operation), manufacturability (labor intensity and energy intensity). Indirect- fines for low-quality products, volume and proportion of rejected products, losses from rejects, etc.
Product quality is a parameter that affects such cost indicators of an enterprise's performance as product output (VP), sales proceeds (V), profit (P).
The change in quality affects primarily the change in the price and cost of production, so the formulas for the calculation will look like
where C 0, C 1 - respectively, the price of the product before and after the change in quality;
С 0, С 1 - the cost of the product before and after the change in quality;
VВП К - quantity of high quality products manufactured;
RP K - the number of products of high quality sold.
Competitiveness analysis
Under competitiveness is understood as a set of quality and cost characteristics of a product, contributing to the creation of superiority of this product over competing products in meeting the specific needs of the buyer. Competitiveness is assessed by comparing the parameters of the analyzed products with the parameters of the comparison base. The comparison is carried out by groups of technical and economic parameters. The assessment uses differential and complex assessment methods. The differential method for assessing competitiveness is based on the use of single parameters and their comparison. The calculation of a single indicator of competitiveness is made according to the formula:
where qi is a single parametric indicator of competitiveness for the i-th parameter (i = 1, 2, 3, ..., NS); Pi - the value of the i-th parameter for the analyzed products; P i 0 - the value of the i-th parameter, at which the need is fully satisfied; NS - number of parameters. Since the parameters can be assessed in different ways, when evaluating by normative parameters, a single indicator takes only two values - 1 or 0. At the same time, if the analyzed products comply with mandatory norms and standards, the indicator is 1, if the product parameter does not fit into the norms and standards , then the indicator is 0. Calculation of the competitiveness indicator (K):
where Q is the quality of the product; C - the quality of the after-sales service or service.
Analysis of the product range
An essential element of analytical work is analysis of the fulfillment of the plan for the nomenclature and assortment. Nomenclature- a list of product names and their codes established for the corresponding types of products in the All-Union Classifier of Industrial Products (OKPP) operating in the CIS.
Range- a list of product names with an indication of the volume of its output for each type. Distinguish between complete (of all types and varieties), group (by related groups), intragroup assortment.
The assessment of the fulfillment of the plan for the nomenclature is based on a comparison of the planned and actual output of products for the main types included in the nomenclature. The assessment of the fulfillment of the plan for the assortment can be carried out:
by the method of the lowest percentage by the specific weight in the general list of product names according to which the production plan has been fulfilled by the method of the average percentage by the formula
VP a = VP n: VP 0 x 100%,
where VP a is the fulfillment of the plan for the assortment,%;
VP n - the sum of actually manufactured products of each type, but not more than their planned output;
VP 0 - planned production output.
Formulas for calculating the indicators of the average number
Index | Calculation formula |
Average listed number, |
|
Middle shop number, |
|
Average number actually working, R C Ф |
|
Analysis of indicators of movement of the slave force
An important component of the analysis of the organization's workforce is the study of the movement of workforce. Considering the movement of labor, it should be borne in mind that the frequent change of workers inhibits the growth of labor productivity. It is necessary to analyze the reasons for staff turnover (the state of social security, absenteeism, voluntary care, etc.), the dynamics of the composition of dismissals: individual and collective, change of official position, the number of transfers to other positions, retirement, expiration of the contract, etc.
The analysis is carried out in dynamics over a number of years based on the following coefficients:
the coefficient of turnover on reception ( K P) is the ratio of the number of all hired employees for the reporting period ( R P) to the average number of employees for the same period ( R CC):
K P = R n / R CC,
retirement turnover ratio ( K B) is the ratio of all quit employees ( R Y) in the reporting period to the average number of employees:
K B = R U / R CC,
the sum of the values of the coefficients for admission and departure characterizes the total turnover of the labor force:
K TOTAL = K P + K V.
Labor turnover is divided into surplus and normal. Normal - this is a turnover that does not depend on the organization, due to such reasons as conscription, retirement and study, transition to elective positions, etc. Dismissal of their own free will, for absenteeism is referred to as excessive turnover of labor.
Employee turnover rate ( K T) is the ratio of excessive labor turnover ( R Y *) for a certain period to the average headcount:
K T = R Y * / R CC.
Composition constancy coefficient ( K POST) is the ratio of the number of employees who have worked for the entire period ( R P) to the average headcount:
K POST = R R / R CC
The level of labor discipline (K D) is determined by calculation.
K D = 1 - R n / R CC
where R P is the number of workers dismissed for absenteeism.
Analysis of the use of working time
The volume of production of goods depends not so much on the number of workers as on the amount of labor expended on production, a certain amount of working time. Therefore, the analysis of the use of working time is an important part of the analytical work in the organization. In the process of analyzing the use of working time, one should check the validity of production targets, study the level of their fulfillment, identify losses of working time, establish their causes, outline ways to further improve the use of working time, and develop the necessary measures.
The analysis of the use of working time is carried out on the basis of the balance of working time. Depending on the goal and the accuracy of measuring the reserves for increasing labor productivity, various values of the fund of working time are used: nominal, attendance, effective (useful). The main components of the balance are presented in the table.
The main indicators of the balance of working hours of one worker
The completeness of the use of labor resources is assessed by the number of days and hours worked by one employee for the period, as well as by the degree of use of the working time fund. Such an analysis is carried out both for individual categories of personnel and for the organization as a whole.
To analyze the use of the aggregate calendar fund of time, it is necessary to determine its potential value. Working time fund ( T RV) depends on the number of workers ( R p), the number of working days worked on average per year ( D), average working day ( t):
In the course of the analysis, it is necessary to identify the reasons for the formation of losses of working time. Classification of losses of working time divides losses of working time into reserve-forming and non-reserve-forming. Reserve-forming losses are losses that can be reduced by systematic organization of work to reduce losses of working time. Among them may be: additional vacations with the permission of the administration, absenteeism due to illness, absenteeism, downtime due to equipment malfunction, lack of work, raw materials, materials, fuel, energy, etc.
Labor productivity analysis
Labor productivity is one of the most important quality indicators of an organization's work, an expression of the efficiency of labor costs. The level of labor productivity is characterized by the ratio of the volume of production and sales of goods or work performed and the cost of working time.
The rate of development of industrial production, an increase in wages and incomes, and the amount of reduction in production costs depend on the level of labor productivity. Increasing labor productivity through mechanization and automation of labor, the introduction of new equipment and technology practically has no boundaries, therefore, the purpose of analyzing labor productivity is to identify opportunities for further increasing output through increased labor productivity, more rational use of workers and their working time.
Based on these goals, the following tasks of studying labor productivity in organizations are distinguished: - measuring the level of labor productivity and its dynamics; - study of factors of labor productivity and identification of reserves for its further increase; - analysis of the relationship of labor productivity with other economic indicators that characterize the results of the organization.
Labor productivity is characterized by the volume of production of goods (volume of work performed) produced by one worker per unit of working time. When planning, accounting and analysis, labor productivity is usually calculated using the formula:
where V is the volume of production of goods;
T is a labor indicator in relation to which labor productivity is calculated.
The volume of production of goods and, accordingly, labor productivity can be expressed in natural, conditionally natural, value and labor units of measurement. Cost indicators are universal, they are currently determined through contractual prices, but they are influenced by inflation and do not clearly characterize the real productivity of labor. Natural indicators, in turn, are of limited use, are used in drawing up plans for enterprises (main workshops and sections), are not affected by inflation, and give an actual idea of labor productivity in the manufacture of a specific type of product.
Labor gauges characterize the dynamics of labor productivity in a specific operation. In this case, the normalized labor input for the manufacture of a certain volume of products (accounting unit) is divided by the planned or actual labor inputs in the manufacture of the same volume of products. It is the most accurate measure of labor efficiency, however, it has limited application. Depending on the number of workers taken into account when planning labor productivity, there are indicators per worker and per production worker. Depending on the unit of working time, the following types of labor productivity are distinguished: annual, quarterly, monthly, ten-day, daily, shift and hourly. Currently, an assessment of labor productivity in value terms is used as the main indicator:
where Rcc is the average number of employees, people. Based on the above formula, we can conclude that the value of labor productivity is influenced by two groups of factors:
change in the volume of production of goods; change in the number of employees of the organization.
Methodology for determining the influence of labor factors on product output
The volume of output (VP) is influenced by such labor factors as:
1. Average number of workers (H);
2. Average number of days worked by one worker for the analyzed period (D);
3. Average working hours (t);
4. Average hourly output of a worker (B).
The relationship of the indicator under study with factor indicators is presented in the form of a four-factor multiplicative model:
Let's determine the size of the influence of factors on the change in the effective indicator:
by the method of chain substitutions;
by the method of absolute differences;
by the method of relative differences;
by the method of interest differences.
Analysis of the influence of the use of workers' labor on the volume of output
It is known that the volume of production of goods can be determined by the formula:
V = R Р * W Р,
where W P- worker productivity, rub.
R R- number of workers, people
The degree of influence of the use of workers' labor on the volume of production of goods can be determined by the integral method according to the formulas:
a) when the number of workers changes:
b) when the productivity of workers changes;
c) under the influence of both factors:
∆V = ∆V R + ∆V W,
where ∆ V R - increase in production volume due to changes in the number of workers, rubles. ∆ V W- an increase in the volume of production due to changes in the productivity of workers, rubles. W PP R- labor productivity of workers in the previous period, rubles. R PP R- the number of workers in the previous period, people. ∆ R P - increase in the number of workers in the current period compared to the previous period, people ∆ W P - increase in labor productivity of workers in the current period compared with the previous period, rubles.
The disadvantage of the calculation performed is that it does not reflect the costs of working time of workers at all. To take this factor into account, we use the following representation of the volume of production of goods:
V = R p * T p * W p,
The analysis of the labor productivity of one worker also includes an assessment of the influence of extensive and intensive factors. Extensive factors include factors that affect the use of working time and depend on the organization of labor and production. The intensive factors include factors that affect the average hourly labor productivity, such as the technical level of development of the organization and the qualifications of workers, which in turn predetermines the labor intensity of the product.
The degree of influence of extensive and intensive factors on the annual labor productivity of workers can be determined by the method of calculating the differences based on the following expression:
rub.,
where W WG- annual labor productivity of the worker,
T RD - worked by one worker per year - man-days,
T RDC - worked by one worker per day - man-hours,
W RF - labor productivity of one worker per hour.
Indicators of the effectiveness of the use of material resources
Mat resources are raw materials and technical and energy. resources. Raw materials fuels and energy resources are used for pr-ve production and are consumed in full, this is their difference from the PF. Mat raw resources transfer their article to the article of the released product in the course of the 1st technol. process. Types of industrial raw materials:
1) By origin: industrial. and agricultural.
2) By the character of the image: organic, mineral, chemical.
3) By the nature of labor: primary, secondary (ore, metal).
Raw materials decomp. on:
1) Basic - compiled. mat. - technical basis.
2) Auxiliary - the implementation of not the basics of f-tion when pr-ve.
Mat. R. are divided into:
1) Productive stocks are stocks of raw materials cat. did not enter into production. percent ...
2) Unfinished prod. - this is prod. the cat entered the percent. pr-va, but did not come out of it.
3) Cons. bud. periods - this is d. Wed-va cat. Already there is now and consumption now., but belong to the article of the future. production.
Indicators of the effectiveness of using mat. resources
The analysis of the use of own OBS is carried out according to the data of section B of the asset and the liability of the balance sheet.
Asset - standardized OBS
Liabilities - loans of the library for standardized inventory.
The tasks of analyzing the effectiveness of the use of material resources, comp. is to install:
1) Is everything mat. required for production are in stock.
2) The sufficiency of V of these reserves for the release of the planned V production.
3) Determine the efficiency of using consumed objects of labor.
4) Is there a slave at the enterprise? on the introduction of progressive types of mat-s.
On the effectiveness of using mat. influenced by factors:
1) Using local mat. cat. yavl. cheaper.
2) Replacing some mat. others (while maintaining quality).
3) Reducing the consumption of materials.
Sources of information for the analysis of material resources are: a plan for material and technical supply, applications, contracts for the supply of raw materials and materials, forms of statistical reporting on the availability and use of material resources and on production costs, operational data of the material and technical department
For the har-ki of the ef-ty of the use of the mat-x resources, a system of generalizing and private indicators is used. By the general, the show-lyam is the profit per ruble of material costs, material efficiency, material consumption, the coefficient of the ratio of the growth rates of production volumes and material costs, beats. weight of material costs in s / s prod-i, coefficient of material costs. Profit per ruble of material costs is determined by dividing the amount of profit received from the bases. activities for the amount of material costs.
Material efficiency is determined by dividing the value of manufactured products (VP) by the amount of material costs (MZ). This indicator characterizes the return on materials, i.e. the amount of products produced from each ruble of consumed material resources (raw materials, materials, fuel, energy, etc.).
Material consumption is determined by dividing the MH into VP shows how much material costs must be made or actually accounted for by the production of a unit of output.
The coefficient of the ratio of the growth rates of the volume of production and material costs is determined by the ratio of the VP index to the MH index. it characterizes in relative terms the dynamics of material efficiency and at the same time reveals the factors of its growth.
Ud. the weight of material costs in s / s prod-i is calculated by the ratio of the amount of MH to the total s / s prod-i. the dynamics of this indicator characterizes the change in the consumption of materials.
The coefficient of mat-x costs is a relative fact. the amount of the MH to the planned. Converted to fact. volume of produced products. It shows how economically the materials are used in the production process, whether there are any overruns in comparison with the established norms. If the coefficient is greater than 1, then this indicates an overexpenditure of material resources for the production of products, and vice versa, if it is less than 1, then material resources were used more economically.
Material consumption (ME) is general, specific and specific. ME depends on the volume of the airspace and the amount of MH for its production.
Total ME is determined: MZ / VVP
The total IU depends on the volume of production. prod-and, its structure, consumption rates of materials for food products, prices for materials and selling prices for products.
Specific ME is determined: UME = HP (consumption rates)
Private ME (CHME) is determined: CHME = UME / CI (product price)
UMEo = НРо ЦМо
UME, = NR, -CM1 CM (material price)
UME = UME, - UMEo
DIED = NR, CMo
CHMEo = UMEo / CIO
CHME | = UME, / QI,
CHME = CHME, -CHMEo
CHMER = UME, / Csio
Analysis of the provision of the organization with material resources
An important factor in the provision of an organization with material resources is the correct calculation of the need for them, rationally organized material and technical supply and economical efficient use of material resources in production.
The need for material resources is determined in the context of their types for the needs of the main and non-main activities of the organization and for the reserves necessary for normal functioning, at the end of the period:
МР i = ∑МР ij + МР i,
where МР i - the general need of the enterprise in the i-th type of material resources;
МР ij - the need of the i-th type of material resources for the j-th type of activity;
MR i - stocks of the i-th type of material resources necessary for the normal functioning of the organization at the end of the period; i = 1, 2, 3, ..., m.
The provision of an organization with stocks in days is calculated as the ratio of the remainder of a given type of material resources to its average daily consumption according to the formula:
where D i - stock of the i-th type of material in days;
МР i - stocks of the i-th type of material in natural units of measurement;
RD i - average daily consumption of the i-th type of material in the same units.
An important condition for the normal uninterrupted operation of the organization is the full provision of the need for material resources with sources of coverage:
where And i is the sum of sources of coverage of the demand in the i-th type of material resources. External resources include material resources received from suppliers under concluded contracts (orders). The sum of the sources of coverage of requirements is determined by the formula
And i = ∑I ij + And i or MR i = ∑I ij + And i,
where And i is the j-th own source of coverage of the demand for the i-th type of material resources;
And i is an external source of covering the demand for the i-th type of material resources; i = 1, 2, 3, ..., n; j = 1, 2, 3, ..., m.
External sources account for a significant share of the total sources of coverage: receipts of material resources from suppliers under concluded contracts.
Analysis of selling expenses
The sale of goods (products, works, services) causes a number of costs. These are called selling expenses (selling expenses) and are included in the total cost of sales.
The structure of sales expenses includes - Expenses for containers and packaging of finished products - Expenses for transportation, loading - Other sales expenses.
According to the Instruction to the Chart of Accounts, the costs of containers and packaging of finished products are considered direct, conditionally variable costs.
All other types of selling expenses are considered indirect. The commercial organization should estimate the costs of the sale using the following inputs:
contracts for the supply of products to consumers, in which the terms of sale are fixed;
the amount of expenses for individual items in the previous period;
cost rates.
When analyzing for notional variable costs, the relative deviations of the estimate are calculated.
To do this, the planned cost for each item is recalculated to the percentage of the plan for the sales volume, then deviations of the actual amounts from the recalculated planned indicators are revealed.
In the economic literature, there is a discussion about how to calculate the percentage of fulfillment of the plan in terms of sales.
1. Based on the assessment of products at the prices of the manufacturer (at basic prices):
I q = ∑q 1 p 0 / ∑q 0 p 0
2. Based on the assessment of products at the planned production cost:
I q = ∑q 1 s 0 / ∑q 0 s 0
In more detail, the reasons for savings and cost overruns can be identified according to accounting data with the involvement of planned settlements with buyers and commission agents.
When analyzing sales costs, keep in mind that advertising costs are normalized for tax purposes.
Cost analysis by economic elements
The official financial statements do not contain enough data to actually analyze the cost of goods sold.
Comparison of the absolute amount of costs for 2 years does not answer the question of whether there are cost savings in the reporting year compared to the previous one, because the amount of costs for 2 years differs for many reasons:
1. For each year, the costs were formed on the specific structure of the sale of products (works, services) of a given year.
2. For each year, the costs were added to the volume of sales of goods (works, services) of a given year.
3. Inflationary processes are not taken into account. inflation affects each cost element differently:
mostly for materials and other costs
to a lesser extent on wages and, as a result, on social contributions.
The technique proposed by prof. Kalinina A.P., invites us to investigate the relative indicators (coefficients), with the help of which the influence of these factors is eliminated.
The cost factor in kopecks per ruble of revenue can be calculated for each economic cost element. These coefficients are named as follows:
1. coefficient of material consumption;
2. coefficient of salary intensity (labor intensity);
3. the coefficient of deductions for social needs;
4. coefficient of specific depreciation;
5. coefficient of other costs;
6. ratio of total costs.
Each of the coefficients can be further detailed. So, for example, the coefficient of material consumption can be represented as the sum of the following coefficients: coefficient of raw materials and materials; coefficient of auxiliary materials; coefficient of purchased semi-finished products and components; third party service ratio; coefficient of fuel and electricity for technological needs.
Based on the data obtained, you can also calculate the amount of relative savings (increase) for each element of the cost of actual sales revenue using the following formula:
K eq (pov) = (Change in the share of the element * revenue in the reporting period) / 100
Factor analysis of cost
Currently, when analyzing the actual cost of goods produced, identifying reserves and the economic effect of reducing it, factor analysis is used.
The most important groups of factors that have a significant impact on the cost are the following.
1) Raising the technical level of production. For this group of factors, for each event, an economic effect is calculated, which is expressed in a decrease in production costs. Savings from the implementation of measures are determined by comparing the cost per unit of production before and after the implementation of measures and multiplying the resulting difference by the volume of production in the planned year:
EC = (З 0 - З 1) * Q ,
where NS K- saving direct current costs;
Z 0- direct current costs per unit of production before the implementation of the event;
Z 1 - direct operating costs per unit of production after the implementation of the event
Q - the volume of goods output in natural units from the beginning of the implementation of the event to the end of the planning period.
2) Improving the organization of production and labor: changes in the organization of production, forms and methods of labor with the development of production specialization; improving production management and reducing costs for it; improving the use of fixed assets; improvement of material and technical supply; reduction of transportation costs; other factors that increase the level of organization of production.
3) Changes in the volume and structure of goods: changes in the nomenclature and assortment of goods, improving the quality and volume of production of goods. Changes in this group of factors can lead to a relative decrease in conditionally fixed costs (except for depreciation), a relative decrease in depreciation charges.
Relative savings on conditionally fixed costs is determined by the formula
NS K P = (T V * З UP0) / 100,
where EK P- saving of conditionally fixed costs;
З УП0 - the amount of conditionally fixed costs in the base period;
T V - the rate of increase in the volume of production in comparison with the base period.
The relative change in depreciation deductions is calculated separately. Some of the depreciation charges are not included in the cost price, but are reimbursed from other sources, so the total amount of depreciation may decrease. The decrease is determined based on actual data for the reporting period. The total savings on depreciation deductions are calculated using the formula
EK A = (A O K / Q О - А 1 К / Q 1) * Q 1,
where EC A- savings due to the relative decrease in depreciation charges;
A 0, A 1- the amount of depreciation deductions in the base and reporting period;
TO- coefficient taking into account the amount of depreciation charges attributed to the cost of production in the base period;
Q 0, Q 1- the volume of production of goods in natural units of the base and reporting period.
4) Improving the use of natural resources: changing the composition and quality of raw materials; changes in the productivity of deposits, the volume of preparatory work during production, methods of extracting natural raw materials; changes in other natural conditions. These factors reflect the influence of natural (natural) conditions on the value of variable costs. Analysis of their impact on reducing the cost of production is carried out on the basis of sectoral methods of the extractive industries.
5) Industry and other factors: Significant reserves are laid down in reducing the cost of preparing and mastering new types of production of goods and new technological processes, in reducing the costs of the start-up period for newly commissioned workshops and facilities. The calculation of the amount of change in costs is carried out according to the formula:
EK P = (Z 1 / Q 1 - З 0 / Q 0) * Q 1,
where EK P - changes in the costs of preparing and mastering production;
Z 0, Z 1- the amount of costs of the base and reporting period;
Q 0, Q 1- the volume of production of goods of the base and reporting period.
Traditionally, the cost price analysis begins with the analysis of the dynamics of the cost price of all goods, while comparing the actual costs with the planned or with the costs of the base period. The total cost may change due to the volume and structure of the output of goods, the level of variable costs per unit of goods and the amount of fixed costs. In the process of analysis, it is revealed for which cost items the largest cost overruns occurred and how this change influenced the change in the total amount of variable and fixed costs.
Cost analysis per ruble manufactured goods
A direct impact on the change in the level of costs per ruble of manufactured goods is exerted by 4 most important factors that are in direct functional connection with it:
changes in the structure of manufactured goods;
change in the level of costs for the production of certain goods;
changes in prices and tariffs for consumed material resources;
change in wholesale prices for manufactured goods.
The effect of structural shifts in the composition of goods is determined by the following formula:
The influence of a change in the level of costs on the production of individual products in the composition of manufactured goods is determined by the formula:
Analysis of material costs in production costs
The analysis of the impact on the s / s of the efficiency of the use of material resources can be carried out in two directions:
1. Analysis of material costs as an economic element.
2. Analysis of material costs in s / s of specific products, i.e. according to the costing data of these products.
When analyzing in the 1st direction, indicators of material consumption are calculated in an amount per 1 ruble. sales proceeds.
The second direction of analysis is based on the calculation data from / from a specific product.
Typically, the second section of the cost estimate is called Material Cost Breakdown.
This section provides information on the main types of consumable materials, on their quantitative consumption per cost unit of production, on the procurement s / s of a unit of consumable materials.
The cost estimate can contain a block of normative or planning data, or data for the previous similar period. This block serves as the basis for comparing actual performance.
If such information is available, then it is possible to analyze material costs in s / s of the cost unit of production in the context of the most important types of consumed materials.
The analysis determines the amount of savings or cost overruns for each type of material and reveals the influence of two main factors:
1. Change in the quantitative consumption of materials per cost unit of production.
2. Change of procurement s / s unit of consumed materials.
Algorithm analysis technique (method of chain substitutions)
Basic option: МЗ 0 = К 0 * Ц 0
Reporting option: МЗ 1 = К 1 * Ц 1
∆ МЗ = МЗ 1 - МЗ 0
МЗ - the amount of material costs for a specific type of material,
K is the quantitative consumption of this type of material in kind per cost unit of production,
C - procurement s / s unit of a given type of material in monetary terms.
Including:
∆ MZ (K) = ∆K * C 0 = (K1-K0) * C 0
∆ МЗ (Ц) = ∆Ц * К 1
Check: ∆ МЗ (К) + ∆ МЗ (Ц) = МЗ 1 - МЗ 0
With further analysis, it is possible to identify specific reasons for the influence of each of the two main factors.
So, for example, a change in the quantity consumption of materials per cost unit can be caused by
1.improving production technology,
2. centralization of procurement operations,
3. violation of technological regimes,
4. substandard raw materials,
5.deficiencies in logistics,
6.Compelled replacement of materials
Blank s / s materials include:
1.Invoice value
2.transport costs,
3. fees of various types,
4.delivery costs from the pier to the warehouse of the enterprise and handling costs
36. Analysis of Finn Sustainability
The financial stability of an organization is such a state of its financial resources, their distribution and use, which ensures the development of the organization based on the growth of profits and capital while maintaining solvency and creditworthiness in conditions of acceptable risk.
In contrast to the solvency, which evaluates the current assets and short-term liabilities of the organization, financial stability is determined on the basis of the ratio of different types of funding sources and its compliance with the composition of assets. Knowing the limiting boundaries of changes in the sources of funds to cover capital investments in fixed assets or production stocks allows you to generate such areas of business operations that lead to an improvement in the financial condition of the organization, to increase its stability.
Absolute financial stability reflects a situation when all stocks are fully covered by own circulating assets, i.e. the organization is completely independent of external creditors.
The normal stability of the financial condition of an organization reflects the presence of sources of formation of stocks, the value of which is calculated as the sum of its own working capital, bank loans, loans used to cover stocks, and accounts payable on commodity transactions.
An unstable financial condition is associated with a breach of solvency, in which the organization is forced to attract additional sources of coverage to cover part of its reserves, which reduce financial tension, and are not, in a sense, "normal"; reasonable.
A crisis or critical financial condition is characterized by a situation in which an organization is on the verge of bankruptcy, since in this situation the organization's cash, short-term securities and accounts receivable do not even cover its accounts payable and overdue loans.
One of the directions of the analysis of financial stability is the use of absolute indicators. Its purpose is to check which sources of funds and how much are used to cover stocks.
To illustrate this approach, it is advisable to consider a multi-level reserve coverage scheme. Depending on what type of sources of funds are used to form reserves, it is possible with a certain degree of confidence to judge the level of financial stability of the entity.
The analysis of the provision of reserves with the sources of their formation is carried out in the following sequence:
1) The availability of own circulating assets is determined ( E C) as the difference between equity ( And C) and immobilized assets ( F IMM):
E C = I C - F IMM, thousand roubles.
2) If its own circulating assets are insufficient, the organization can receive long-term loans and credits.
Availability of own and long-term borrowed sources ( EAT) is determined by calculation:
E M = (AND C + K T) - F IMM, thousand roubles.
3) The total value of the main sources of formation is determined taking into account short-term loans and credits:
E å = (AND C + K T + K t) - F IMM, thousand roubles.
Three indicators of the availability of sources of formation of reserves correspond to three indicators of their availability with sources of formation:
1) Surplus (+) or shortage (-) of own working capital:
± E C = E C - Z, thousand roubles.
2) Surplus (+) or lack (-) of own and long-term borrowed sources of formation of reserves:
± E M = E M - Z, thousand roubles.
3) Surplus (+) or shortage (-) of the total amount of sources of formation of reserves:
S (x) = (1; 1; 1) - absolute financial stability;
S (x) = (0; 1; 1) - normal financial stability;
S (x) = (0; 0; 1) - unstable financial condition;
S (x) = (0; 0; 0) - financial crisis (on the verge of bankruptcy).
Solvency assessment
For an in-depth analysis of solvency, it is necessary to know the composition of the organization's property, the sources of its formation and all possible options for changing them. For these purposes, a balance model is drawn up:
F IMM + O A = I C + Z K, thousand roubles.,
where F IMM- immobilized assets; O A - current assets; And C- equity; Z K- borrowed capital. Drawing up a balance model assumes a certain regrouping of sections and balance sheet items to allocate borrowed funds that are homogeneous in terms of return, and by transforming the balance model, we obtain the value of current assets ( ABOUT A):
O A = (AND C - F IMM) + З К, thousand roubles.
Considering that long-term loans and borrowings are directed to the acquisition of fixed assets and long-term financial investments, we will further transform the formula, highlighting the components of current assets and borrowed capital.
Z + R A + D = [(And c + K T) - F imm] + ( K t + R P), thousand roubles.,
where Z- stocks;
R A - receivables;
D - free funds;
K T- long term duties;
K t - short-term loans and credits;
R Р - accounts payable.
Analysis of the results of calculations using this model allows us to conclude that the condition of current solvency will be met if the organization's reserves are covered by the sources of their formation:
Z £ (AND C + K T) - F IMM, thousand roubles.
To assess the prospective solvency, accounts receivable and available cash are compared with short-term liabilities:
R A + D ³ K t + R R, thousand roubles.
The solvency of an organization is determined by the influence of not only internal factors, but also external ones. External factors include: the general state of the economy, its structure, state budgetary and tax policies, interest rate and depreciation policies, market conditions, etc. To consider the only position of the organization's management to be the reason for non-payments is completely inappropriate. In essence, non-payments represent the organization's desire to compensate for the lack of working capital. On the one hand, organizations are forced to operate in the face of rising production costs due to higher prices for raw materials and fuel and energy resources, higher wages. On the other hand, effective demand for products is not stable. This forces organizations to defer payments to suppliers, widening the gap between liquidity and short-term liabilities, as shown by the analysis.
Assessment of the borrower's creditworthiness
The main purpose of the credit analysis is to determine the borrower's ability and willingness to repay the requested loan in accordance with the terms of the loan agreement. The bank must in each case determine the degree of risk that it is willing to take on and the amount of credit that can be provided in the given circumstances.
The first source of information for assessing the creditworthiness of business organizations should be their balance sheet with an explanatory note to it. Analysis of the balance sheet allows you to determine what funds the company has, and what size of credit these funds provide. However, for a reasonable and comprehensive conclusion on the creditworthiness of the bank's clients, balance sheet information is not enough. This follows from the composition of the indicators.
To begin with, the documents of the Borrower are considered. The main purpose of the analysis of documents for a loan is to determine the ability and willingness of the borrower to repay the requested loan on time and in full.
The borrower submits the following documents to the bank:
1. Legal documents:
2. Financial statements in full, certified by the tax inspectorate, as of the last two reporting dates, with explanations of the following balance sheet items;
3. For the last three months - copies of extracts from current and foreign currency accounts for monthly dates and for the largest receipts during the indicated months.
4. As of the date of receipt of the loan request: certificate of received loans with copies of loan agreements.
5. Letter - an application for a loan (on the organization's letterhead with an outgoing number) with brief information about the organization and its activities, main partners and development prospects.
A number of American economists describe a credit rating system based on balance sheet indicators. American banks use four groups of basic indicators:
the liquidity of the firm;
capital turnover;
raising funds;
profitability indicators.
The first group includes the liquidity ratio (K l) and coverage (K cover). Liquidity ratio K l- the ratio of the most liquid funds and long-term debt obligations. Liquid funds consist of cash and short-term receivables.
Coverage coefficient K pok p - the ratio of working capital and short-term debt. Coverage ratio - shows the lending limit, the sufficiency of all types of client funds to pay off the debt. If the coverage ratio is less than 1, then the lending limits are violated, the borrower can no longer provide a loan: he is insolvent.
Attraction coefficients (K attracted) form the third group of estimated indicators. They are calculated as the ratio of all debt obligations to the total amount of assets or to the fixed capital, show the dependence of the company on borrowed funds. The higher the attraction ratio, the worse the borrower's creditworthiness.
Analysis of turnover (Turnover).
General indicators of turnover.
To characterize the efficiency of using OA, turnover indicators are used: t-duration of one turnover in days (turnover in days); q is the number of revolutions for the period; k is the coefficient of OA fixation.
All 3 indicators of turnover are mathematically interrelated and are derived from one another, they characterize the same process of turnover of OA from different sides: t = (COxD): O, where CO is the average balances of assets for the period (calculated by the average chronological ) (when determining the turnover indicators of all OA, their balances for balance sheet dates are taken according to the total of section II of the BB (page 290)); D is the number of days in the analyzed period; O-useful turnover for the period in monetary terms (calculated in the same units as CO). Economists have not come to a common conclusion regarding the indicator of a unit of useful turnover. Sometimes the net proceeds from sales are taken (form 2, page 010); gross revenue or gross revenue (revenue + VAT, excise taxes, export duties); full cost of sold TT, PP, UU or other; operating cost. When determining particular indicators of turnover, other indicators of useful turnover are used. q = O: CO = D: t; k = CO: O-coefficient of fixing OA shows how much OA falls on average per 1 ruble. useful turnover. The economic result of the acceleration of the turnover of OA is an increase in the useful turnover for the period, i.e. proceeds from the sale. If this is not required or it is impossible to achieve according to market conditions, then the economic result of the acceleration of turnover is the relative release of OA. The sum of the relative release of OA can be calculated using the formula: ΔСО (t) = (t 1 -t 0) хО 1: D. involvement of OA in circulation.
1.increase in proceeds from sales in the reporting year in comparison with the previous ΔОА (Iв) = СО 0 -СО 0 хIв;
2. absolute change in the sum of OA ΔОА (abs) = CO 1 -CO 0.
Private indicators of turnover
Indicators of the turnover of individual components of assets: inventories, accounts receivable, short-term financial investments, cash, other OA. Calculation formulas are the same as for general indicators. The difference is that specific indicators are taken into account. The calculation of private indicators of turnover allows you to see what caused the duration of one turnover in days for all assets.
OA speed acceleration paths
In the management of the OA distinguish between the operational and financial cycle. The operational cycle characterizes the total time during which financial resources are in stocks and debits: t о. c. = t З + t д. З. (average duration of the operating cycle in days; average time of inventory turnover; average time of turnover of debits. Debt. The financial cycle is less than the operating cycle at the time of circulation of accounts payable. The main stages of financial. cycle: the stage of supply, production, sales, settlements. Acceleration of the turnover of the OA is a reduction in the duration of the financial cycle. Ways of acceleration of the turnover are directly related to the reduction of the named stages. The reduction of the operating cycle can be achieved by accelerating the supply processes, production, sales due to the acceleration of the turnover of debts. The financial cycle can be reduced both due to the above factors, and due to some uncritical slowdown in the turnover of credit. debts.
Operating and financial leverage
Operating leverage is quantitatively characterized by the ratio between fixed and variable costs in their total amount and the variability of the "Profit before interest and taxes" indicator. It is this indicator of profit that makes it possible to identify and assess the impact of the variability of operating leverage on the financial results of the firm.
The leverage level is calculated as
.
Together with this indicator, when analyzing the financial and economic activities of an enterprise, they use the value of the effect of production leverage, the reciprocal of the value of the safety threshold:
If the proportion of fixed costs is high, the company is said to have a high level of production leverage. For such a company, sometimes even a slight change in production volumes can lead to a significant change in profits, since the company has to bear fixed costs in any case, whether the product is produced or not. Profit variability with changes in production volumes in the break-even model is expressed through the value of the derivative:
The higher the leverage, the more the value of the safety threshold will change when the volume of output changes.
Financial leverage
Comparing the formulas for determining operating profit and net profit before tax, we can conclude that an additional risk factor in the case of financial leverage is the total amount of interest on a loan:
,
Profit - operating profit;
E-I - net profit before income tax;
p is the price of 1 item;
v - variable costs for 1 product;
q - sales volume;
FО - fixed costs associated only with operating activities (without interest on a loan);
I - the amount of interest for the loan.
Obviously, the amount of interest payments increases with the growth of the share of borrowed capital in the total structure of the sources of financing of the enterprise. Consequently, financial leverage reflects the degree of dependence of the company on creditors, that is, the magnitude of the risk of loss of solvency. The higher the financial leverage, the higher the risk, firstly, of not receiving net profit, and secondly, of bankruptcy of the enterprise. On the other hand, financial leverage helps to increase the profitability of equity capital: without investing additional equity capital in the company (it is replaced by borrowed funds), the owners receive a large amount of net profit “earned” by borrowed capital. In addition, the company gets the opportunity to use the “tax shield”, since, unlike dividends on shares, the amount of interest on the loan is deducted from the total amount of taxable profit. However, in order to take advantage of financial leverage, the company must fulfill a prerequisite - to earn an operating profit sufficient at least to cover the interest payments on borrowed funds.
The quantitative influence of the effect of financial leverage is usually measured by the ratio of the amount of operating profit to the amount of net profit before tax:
Predicting potential bankruptcy
To study and develop possible ways of enterprise development in a market economy, there is a need for financial forecasting.
At present, in world practice, various economic and mathematical models are used to predict the financial stability of an enterprise, select its financial strategy, and determine the risk of bankruptcy.
The simplest model for predicting the probability of bankruptcy is considered to be two-factor.
To predict the likelihood of bankruptcy of enterprises in developed capitalist countries, economic and mathematical models of well-known Western economists Altman, Fox, Taffler, Tishaw, etc., developed using multivariate discriminant analysis, are widely used.
E. Altman's model is as follows:
Z-score = 1.2 x, + 1.4 x 2 + 3.3 x 3 + 0.6 x 4 + 0.999 x 5,
where indicators x, x 2, x 3, x 4, x 5 are calculated as follows:
X1 =
X2 =
X4 =
If the result is less than 1.8, this indicates that the likelihood of bankruptcy of the enterprise is very high;
if the Z-score is in the range from 1.9 to 2.7, the probability of bankruptcy is average;
if the Z-score is in the range from 2.8 to 2.9, the probability of bankruptcy is small;
if the Z-score is higher than 3.0, the probability of bankruptcy is negligible.
The factors taken into account in the considered models of the Z-account by E. Altman affect the determination of the degree of probability of bankruptcy
Russian enterprises. Therefore, the use of these models in domestic practice is quite legitimate. However, due to the fact that the influence
external factors in Russian practice are much higher, the quantitative values of the Z-score, which determine the likelihood of bankruptcy, may differ from Western ones.
The practice of using this model in the analysis of Russian enterprises has confirmed the correctness of the obtained values and the need for its use.
However, it should be noted that the use of this model in the Russian Federation requires great precautions. It is not entirely suitable for assessing the risk of bankruptcy of our business entities, since the proposed weighting factors in foreign models of the Z-account may not correspond to the external and internal conditions of business of Russian enterprises.
Economic analysis methods- are divided into general scientific and specifically scientific. The first includes the methods used by all sciences. It:
- observation,
- comparison,
- detailing,
- abstraction,
- modeling,
- experiment.
Analysis and synthesis are also general scientific methods. Specifically, scientific methods are formed within the framework of individual sciences, they detail and concretize general scientific methods of cognition.
Comparison
Comparison is the earliest and most common method of analysis. Comparison begins with the ratio of phenomena, i.e. from a synthetic act, through which phenomena are analyzed, the general and the different are distinguished in them. The general found as a result of the analysis synthesizes the generalized phenomena.
In economic analysis, the method of comparison is considered one of the most important: analysis begins with it. There are several forms of comparison:
- with a plan,
- with the past,
- with the best,
- with average data.
An important condition for comparing indicators is comparability. As a base for comparison, use:
- indicators of previous years;
- business planning and regulatory values;
- advances in science and excellence;
- levels of indicators of closest competitors;
- average indicators of objects of study in the territorial context;
- options for management decisions;
- theoretically maximum possible, potential and predictable indicators.
Cognitive vertical comparisons, making it possible to study the structure of phenomena and processes and trends in their change.
Interesting multivariate comparisons in the analysis, when a wide range of indicators are compared for several objects. Multivariate comparisons are used for a comprehensive assessment of performance in competitive comparisons to identify financial risks. For such comparisons, special algorithms have been developed and are used in practice.
The role of comparisons in economic analysis is determined by the fact that this method allows you to achieve a number of targets, for example, an assessment:
- progress in the implementation of current and future business plans,
- ways to save resources,
- selection of optimal solutions,
- assessment of the degree of business risks.
Average values
Average values are important in economic analysis. Their "analytical power" consists in generalizing the corresponding array of typical, homogeneous indicators, phenomena, processes:
- they make it possible to pass from the singular to the general, from the accidental to the natural;
- without them, it is impossible to compare the trait under study in different populations, it is impossible to characterize the change in a variable indicator over time;
- they make it possible to abstract from the randomness of individual meanings and fluctuations.
In analytical calculations, the following forms of averages are used based on the need:
- arithmetic mean,
- average harmonic weighted,
- chronological average of the moment series,
- fashion,
- median.
With the help of average values (group and general), calculated on the basis of mass data on qualitatively homogeneous phenomena, it is possible, as indicated above, to determine general trends and patterns in the development of economic processes.
Grouping method
Groupings systematize the material, and reveal the characteristic and typical interconnections of processes, extinguish random deviations. The analysis uses the following types of groupings:
- typological (for example, the grouping of organizations by type of ownership);
- structural - to assess the internal structure of indicators (for example, to study personnel by work experience, by profession, etc.);
- analytical groups - to study the relationship between factor and performance indicators (for example, the dependence of the amount of a loan issued by a bank on the value of the interest rate).
The grouping method is the main one among the ordering methods. It assumes the division of the studied set of objects into qualitatively homogeneous groups according to the corresponding characteristics. In the analysis, grouping is used to identify the relationship between individual phenomena in order to study the composition, structure and dynamics of development, to determine the average values.
Grouping involves both the classification of phenomena and processes, and the causes and factors that determine them. The groupings combine qualitatively homogeneous phenomena that are similar in economic or social nature. Using the grouping method involves performing the following steps:
- classification of objects, phenomena (processes), selected as a defining feature;
- definition of derived features and their values;
- presentation of results in the form of tables;
- identifying the influence of each of the derived features.
As an information basis for grouping, a general population of objects of the same type or a sample population is used. In the first case, data are systematically accumulated in the information fund; in the second, typological samples are used. Economically sound grouping makes it possible to study the relationship between indicators, and systematize analytical data.
Grouping - allows you to study certain economic phenomena in interconnection and interdependence, to reveal the influence of significant factors, to reveal certain patterns and tendencies inherent in these phenomena and processes. Grouping involves the classification of phenomena and processes, as well as the causes and factors that determine them.
Balance method
The traditional methods of processing and checking the initial information include the balance sheet. It is also used to measure the impact of additively related factors on the performance indicator. In the additive form of dependence, the generalizing indicator is an algebraic sum of quotients. A method of proportional division, or equity participation, has been developed on the basis of the balance sheet method.
The balance method has found application in the analysis of the organization's provision with labor, material and financial resources and the completeness of their use, in the study of the compliance of means of payment with payment obligations, etc. As a technical technique, the balance method is used to check the correctness of analytical calculations by compiling a balance of deviations.
Linear programming method
The linear programming method is used to solve experimental problems when looking for the maximum or minimum values of some functions of variables. The value of using this method lies in the fact that the best option is selected from a significant number of alternatives. With the help of other methods, it is not possible to solve such problems. When using the linear programming method, you should:
- present solution alternatives in the form of mathematical variables;
- define constraints and represent them in the form of mathematical expressions;
- solve problems using a graphical or algebraic approach.
Graphical way
The graphical method is widely used to study production processes, organizational structures, programming processes, etc. For example, to analyze the efficiency of using production equipment, calculation graphs are built, including graphs of multiple factors.
Network diagrams occupy a special place in mathematical analysis, planning and management. They give an economic effect in the construction and installation of industrial and other enterprises.
Correlation and regression (stochastic) analysis method
Correlation analysis sets the task of measuring the closeness of the relationship between varying variables and assessing the factors that maximize the impact on the effective trait.
Regression analysis is designed to select the form of communication, the type of model, to determine the calculated values of the dependent variable (effective attribute).
The methods of correlation and regression analysis are used in combination. The methods of correlation and regression analysis are used in combination. Pair correlation is most developed in theory and applied in practice. It investigates the relationship between an effective trait and one factorial trait. This is one-way correlation and regression analysis.
Game theory
Game theory examines the optimality of a strategy in situations of a game nature. Formalizing conflict situations mathematically, they are presented as a game of two, three, etc. players, each of whom pursues the goal of maximizing his own benefit, gaining at the expense of others.
The solution of such problems requires certainty in formulating the conditions for establishing the number of players, the rules of the game, identifying possible strategies of the players, and possible winnings.
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Note that the term “ analysis”Originates from the Greek language, where the word“ analysis ”means the dismemberment, fragmentation of an object or phenomenon into separate elements for the purpose of a detailed study of the object or phenomenon. The opposite will be the concept “ synthesis"(It comes from the Greek word" synthesis ") Synthesis is the unification of separate constituent parts of an object or phenomenon into a single whole. Analysis and synthesis are two interrelated aspects of the process of studying any objects and phenomena.
Economic Sciences, and incl. economic analysis, refers to the totality of the humanities, and the object of their research is economic processes and phenomena.
Economic analysis belongs to a group of interrelated specific economic disciplines, which, in addition to it, include accounting, control, statistics, audit, micro- and macroeconomics, finance and credit, and other sciences. It is worth noting that they study the economic activities of organizations, but each from a certain angle of view that is characteristic only of it. Therefore, each of these sciences has an independent subject.
Economic analysis and its role in the management of the organization
Economic analysis(otherwise - business analysis) plays an important role in increasing the economic efficiency of organizations, in strengthening their financial condition. It is worth noting that it is an economic science, which studies the economics of organizations, their activities from the position of assessing their work on the implementation of business plans, assessing their property and financial condition and in order to identify unused reserves for increasing the efficiency of organizations.
The subject of economic analysis there will be the property and financial condition and the current economic activity of organizations, studied from the position of its ϲᴏᴏᴛʙᴇᴛϲᴛʙii tasks of business plans and in order to identify unused reserves for increasing the efficiency of the organization.
Content of economic analysis- ϶ᴛᴏ a comprehensive and detailed study, based on all available sources of information, of various aspects of the functioning of this organization, aimed at improving its work by developing and implementing optimal management decisions that reflect the reserves identified in the process of analysis and the ways of using these reserves.
Economic analysis is subdivided on interior and external depending on the subjects of the analysis, that is, on those bodies that carry it out. The most complete and comprehensive will be the internal analysis carried out by the functional departments and services of the organization. The external analysis carried out by tax authorities, banks, debtors and creditors and other organizations is traditionally limited to establishing the degree of stability of the financial condition of the analyzed organization, its solvency and liquidity both at reporting dates and in the future.
The objects of economic analysis will be the property and financial position of the organization, its production, supply and sales, financial activities, the work of individual structural divisions of the organization (workshops, production sites, teams)
Economic analysis as a science, as a branch of economic knowledge, and finally, as an academic discipline, is closely interconnected with other specific economic sciences.
Laughter number 1. The relationship of economic analysis with various economic sciencesEconomic analysis is a complex science that, along with its own, also uses an apparatus that is effective in a number of other economic sciences. Economic analysis, just like other economic sciences, studies the economics of individual objects, but from the point of view that is only relevant to it. It is worth noting that it provides an assessment of the state of the economy of a given object, as well as its current economic activity.
Principles of Economic Analysis:
- Scientificness... The analysis must comply with the requirements of economic laws, use the achievements of science and technology.
- Systems approach... It is extremely important to carry out economic analysis taking into account all the laws of the developing system, that is, to study the phenomena in their interconnection and interdependence.
- Complexity... When researching, it is extremely important to take into account the influence on the economic activity of the enterprise of many factors.
- Research in dynamics... In the process of analysis, all phenomena should be considered in their development, which makes it possible not only to understand them, but also to find out the reasons for the changes.
- Highlighting the main goal... Do not forget that an important point in the analysis will be the formulation of the research problem and the identification of the most important reasons holding back production or hindering the achievement of the goal.
- Concrete and practical... The results of the analysis must necessarily have a numerical expression, and the reasons for the change in indicators must be specific, indicating the places of their occurrence and ways of eliminating them.
Economic analysis method
The word "method" came into our language from the Greek language. Translated, it means "the way to something." Consequently, the method is, as it were, a way to achieve the set goal. With regard to any science, a method is a way of studying the subject of a science. The methods of any sciences are based on a dialectical approach to the study of the objects and phenomena they are considering. Economic analysis will not be an exception here either.
The dialectical approach means that all processes and phenomena taking place in nature and society should be considered in their constant development, interconnection and interdependence. So the economic analysis studies the indicators characterizing the activities of any organizations, comparing them for several reporting periods (in dynamics), as well as their changes. Further. Economic analysis considers the various aspects of the organization's activities in unity and mutual connection, as elements of a single process. For example, the volume of sales of products depends on its release, and the fulfillment of the planned target for profit - mainly on
The method of economic analysis is due to its subject and the challenges it faces.
Methods and techniques used in the analysis of economic activities are divided into traditional, statistical and economic and mathematical... It is worth noting that they are discussed in detail in the following sections of the site.
In order to practically implement the use of the method of economic analysis, certain methods have been developed. It is worth noting that they represent a set of methods and techniques used for the optimal solution of analytical problems.
The methods used in economic analysis at certain stages of analytical work involve the use of various techniques and methods.
The key point of the method of economic analysis will be the calculation of the influence of individual factors on economic indicators. The relationship of economic phenomena is a joint change of two or more of these phenomena. There are various forms of interconnection of economic phenomena. The most significant among them will be the causal relationship. Its essence consists essentially in the fact that a change in one economic phenomenon is caused by a change in another economic phenomenon. Such a relationship is called deterministic, in other words - a cause-and-effect relationship. If two economic phenomena are connected by such a relationship, then the economic phenomenon, a change in which causes a change in the other, is called a cause, and the phenomenon that changes under the influence of the first is called a consequence.
In economic analysis, those signs that characterize the cause are called factorial, independent... Note that the same signs, which characterize the effect, are usually called resultant, dependent.
See more: Factor AnalysisThus, in this paragraph we examined the concept of the method of economic analysis, as well as the most important methods (methods, techniques) used in the analysis of the organization's activities. We will consider in more detail these methods and the procedure for their use in special sections of the site.
Tasks, sequence of carrying out and order of registration of the results of economic analysis
The most complete and profound will be the internal (on-farm) analysis carried out traditionally by the functional departments and services of the organization. Therefore, internal analysis has much more numerous tasks than external analysis.
The main tasks of the internal analysis of the organization's activities should be considered:
- verification of the validity of the assignments of business plans and various standards;
- determination of the degree of fulfillment of tasks of business plans and compliance with established standards;
- calculation of the influence of individual factors on the deviation of the actual values of economic indicators from the baseline
- the search for on-farm reserves to further increase the efficiency of the organization and ways of mobilization, that is, the use of these reserves;
Of the listed tasks of internal economic analysis, the main task will be to identify reserves in this organization.
The external analysis is, in essence, only one task - to assess the degree of solvency and liquidity of the organization both at a certain reporting date and in the future.
The results of the analysis will be the basis for the development and implementation of optimal management decisions that contribute to improving the efficiency of organizations.
In the process of conducting economic analysis, methods of induction and deduction.
Induction method(from the particular to the general) assumes that the study of economic phenomena begins with individual facts, situations and proceeds to the study of the economic process as a whole. Method the same deduction(from general to specific) is characterized, on the contrary, by a transition from general indicators to specific ones, in particular, to the analysis of the influence of individual factors on generalizing economic indicators.
Do not forget that the most important in conducting economic analysis will, of course, be the deduction method, since the sequence of the analysis usually involves the transition from the whole to its constituent elements, from synthetic, generalizing indicators of the organization's activities to analytical, factor indicators.
When an economic analysis is carried out, all aspects of the organization's activities, all the processes that make up the production and commercial cycle of the organization are investigated in their relationship, interdependence and interdependence. Such a study is the key point in the analysis. It is worth noting that it is called factor analysis.
After the end of the analysis, its results should be documented in a certain way. It should be said that for these purposes, explanatory notes to the annual reports, as well as certificates or conclusions based on the results of the analysis, can be used.
Explanatory notes intended for external users of analytical information. Let's study what the content of these notes should be.
They should reflect the level of development of the organization, the conditions in which its activities take place, the competitiveness of the product, the price policy for it, data on the sales markets of products, etc. should also be provided. Information should also be provided on what stage of the life cycle is every kind of goods on the market. (These include the stages of implementation, growth and development, maturity, saturation and decline) Excluding the above, it is extremely important to provide information about the competitors of this organization.
Then, data on key economic indicators should be presented over several periods.
The factors that influenced the activities of the organization and its results should be indicated. you should also cite those activities that are planned in order to eliminate deficiencies in the organization's activities, as well as to improve the efficiency of its activities. Material published on http: // site
References, as well as conclusions based on the results of the conducted economic analysis, may have a more detailed content in comparison with explanatory notes. As a rule, certificates and conclusions do not contain generalized characteristics of the organization and the conditions for its functioning.
It is worth noting that the main emphasis here is on the description of reserves and ways of using them.
The results of the carried out can also be formalized in a textless form. In this case, the analytical documents contain only a set of analytical tables and there is no text that characterizes the economic activity of the organization. By the way, this form of registration of the results of the conducted economic analysis is now being used more and more widely.
In addition to the considered forms of registration of the analysis results, the most important of them will also be entered into certain sections. economic passport of the organization.
These are the main forms of generalization and presentation of the results of the conducted economic analysis. It should be borne in mind that the presentation of material in explanatory notes, as well as in other analytical documents, should be clear, simple and concise, and should also be linked to analytical tables.
Types of economic analysis and their role in the management of the organization
Financial and management economic analysis
Economic analysis can be subdivided into different types with certain characteristics.
First of all, economic analysis is usually divided into two main types - the financial analysis and management analysis- depending on the content of the analysis, the functions it performs and the tasks it faces.
The financial analysis, in turn can be subdivided into external and internal... The first is carried out by tax authorities, banks, statistical authorities, parent organizations, suppliers, buyers, investors, shareholders, audit firms, etc.
It should be noted that the main task of external financial analysis will be to assess the financial condition of the organization, its solvency and liquidity. It is carried out at the organization itself by its accounting department, financial department, planning department, and other functional services. Internal financial analysis solves a much wider range of tasks in comparison with the external one. Internal analysis studies the efficiency of using equity and borrowed capital, examines the indicators of profit, profitability, identifies the reserves for the growth of the latter and strengthening the financial condition of the organization. Internal financial analysis, therefore, is aimed at developing and implementing optimal management decisions that contribute to improving the financial performance of a given organization.
Management analysis, unlike financial, is internal... It is carried out by the services and departments of the organization. It is worth noting that he studies issues related to the organizational and technical level and other production conditions, using certain types of production resources (labor resources, fixed assets, materials), analyzes the volume of production, its cost.
Types of economic analysis depending on the functions and tasks of the analysis
Taking into account the dependence on the content, functions and tasks of the analysis, the following types of analysis are also distinguished: socio-economic, economic-statistical, economic-ecological, marketing, investment, functional-cost (FSA), etc.
Socio-economic analysis examines the relationship and interdependence between social and economic phenomena.
Economic and statistical analysis used to study mass socio-economic phenomena. Economic and environmental analysis studies the relationship and interaction between the state of the environment and economic phenomena.
Marketing Analysis has the aim of studying the markets for raw materials and materials, as well as markets for finished products, the ratio of supply and demand for these products, the competitiveness of the products of this organization, the level of prices for products, etc.
Investment analysis aimed at choosing the most effective options for the investment activities of organizations.
Functional and cost analysis(FSA) is a method of systematic study of the functions of any product, or any production and economic process, or a certain level of management. This method aims to minimize the cost of design, production, sale of products, as well as industrial and household consumption of these products under conditions of their high quality, maximum utility (including durability)
Given the dependence on aspects of the study, there are two main types (directions) of the analysis of economic activity:- financial and economic analysis;
- technical and economic analysis.
The first type of analysis examines the impact of economic factors on the implementation of business plans in terms of financial performance.
Note that the technical and economic analysis examines the influence of the factors of technology, technology and organization of production on the economic indicators.
Given the dependence on the completeness of the coverage of the organization's activities, two types of analysis of economic activities can be distinguished: full (complex) and thematic (partial) analysis... The first type of analysis covers all aspects of the financial and economic activities of the organization. Note that a thematic analysis studies the effectiveness of individual aspects of an organization's activities. Economic analysis can also be subdivided according to the objects of study. Microeconomic and Macroeconomic Analysis. Microeconomic analysis studies the activities of individual economic units. It can be divided into three main types: in-house, shop and factory analysis.
Macroeconomic it can be sectoral, that is, to study the functioning of a particular branch of the economy or industry, territorial, which analyzes the economy of individual regions, and, finally, inter-sectoral, examining the functioning of the economy as a whole.
Separate sign classification of types of economic analysis will be a subdivision of the latter by subjects of analysis... They are understood as those organs and persons who carry out the analysis.
The subjects of economic analysis can be divided into two groups.- Directly interested in the activities of the organization. This group may include the owners of the organization's funds, tax authorities, banks, suppliers, buyers, the organization's management, and individual functional services of the analyzed organization.
- Subjects of analysis indirectly interested in the activities of the organization. This includes legal organizations, audit firms, consulting firms, trade union bodies, etc.
Economic analysis depending on the timing
Taking into account the dependence on the time of the analysis (in other words, on the frequency of its implementation), there are: preliminary, operational, final and prospective analysis.
Preliminary analysis allows you to assess the state of this object when developing a business plan. For example, the production capacity of the organization is assessed, whether it is able to provide the planned volume of production.
Operational(otherwise current) analysis is carried out on a daily basis, directly in the course of the current activities of the organization.
The final(subsequent, or retrospective) analysis studies the effectiveness of the economic activities of organizations over the past period.
Perspective the analysis is used to determine the expected results in the coming period.
Prospective analysis is critical to the organization's future success. This type of analysis examines possible options for the development of an organization and outlines ways to achieve optimal results.
Types of economic analysis depending on the research methodology
Given the dependence on the methodology used for the study of objects in the economic literature, it is customary to subdivide the analysis of economic activity into the following types: quantitative, qualitative, express analysis, fundamental, marginal, economic and mathematical.
Quantitative(aka factorial) analysis is based on quantitative comparisons, measurement, comparison of indicators and the study of the influence of individual factors on economic indicators.
Qualitative analysis uses qualitative comparative assessments, characteristics, as well as expert assessments of the analyzed economic phenomena.
Express analysis- ϶ᴛᴏ a method for assessing the economic and financial condition of an organization on the basis of certain features expressing certain economic phenomena. Fundamental analysis is based on a comprehensive, detailed study of economic phenomena, traditionally based on the use of economic-statistical and economic-mathematical research methods.
Margin analysis explores ways to optimize the amount of profit received as a result of sales of products, works, services. Economic and mathematical analysis is based on the use of a complex mathematical apparatus, with the help of which the optimal solution of any economic and mathematical model is established.
Dynamic and static economic analysis
By its nature, economic analysis can be divided into the following two: dynamic and static... The first type of analysis is based on the study of economic indicators taken in their dynamics, that is, in the process of their change, development over time, over several reporting periods. In the process of dynamic analysis, indicators of absolute growth, growth rate, growth rate, absolute value of one percent of growth are determined and analyzed, and dynamic series are constructed and analyzed. Static analysis assumes that the studied economic indicators will be static, that is, unchanged.
On a spatial basis, economic analysis can be divided into the following two types: internal (on-farm) and off-farm (comparative)... The first one studies the activities of this organization and its structural divisions. The second type compares the economic indicators of two or more organizations (the analyzed organization with others)
According to the methods of studying the object of analysis, it is divided into the following types: complex, system analysis, continuous analysis, sample analysis, correlation analysis, regression analysis, etc. reporting period; the results of his analysis can be used for forecasting both in the short and long term.
Operational economic analysis
Operational economic analysis applied at all levels of government. The share of operational analysis in making optimal management decisions increases with the approach to individual organizations and their structural divisions.
Do not forget that the most important feature of the operational analysis will be that it is as close as possible in time to the implementation of individual phases of the production and commercial cycle of a given organization. operative analysis timely establishes the causes of existing deficiencies and their culprits, reveals reserves and promotes theirϲʙᴏtemporal use.
Final economic analysis
A very important role in the development of optimal management decisions is played by final, subsequent analysis... Do not forget that the most important source of information for such an analysis will be the organization's reporting.
Final analysis gives a refined assessment of the organization's activities and its results for a certain period, ensures the identification of justified values of reserves for increasing the efficiency of the organization, seeks ways to mobilize, that is, use these reserves. The results of the final analysis carried out by the organization itself are reflected in the explanatory note to the annual report.
The final analysis will be the most complete type of analysis of the economic activities of the organization.
The method of economic analysis is usually understood as a dialectical approach to the study of economic processes in their formation and development. A feature of the method of economic analysis is that it uses a system of indicators, which at various levels of management most widely characterize the subject of market relations, identifies and measures the tightness of the relationship of these indicators. The need for such an approach is due to the fact that the study of each indicator in isolation from others generates erroneous conclusions, making it difficult to understand the deep processes taking place in the organization, the choice of measures necessary to improve economic activity.
Based on this, the method of economic analysis is a set of techniques and methods for studying the economic activities of enterprises by identifying and determining the relationships of the studied indicators, dividing them into components and comparing them with others, measuring the magnitude of the impact on the studied indicators of both individual components and their aggregate in unity and mutual connection.
At the initial stage of the analysis of a particular indicator, the study is carried out from the general to the particular, which is a deductive method of research. At the stage of generalization, the studied components of the analyzed indicator are considered taking into account their influence on the general analyzed indicators, which is an inductive method of research. Deductive and inductive research methods are two sides of the process of studying phenomena. This is the manifestation of the unity and inextricable connection between analysis and synthesis. The application of each element of the method is achieved by a combination of techniques and methods of economic analysis.
In the process of economic analysis, analytical processing of economic information, a number of special methods and techniques are used.
There is a different classification of methods and techniques of economic analysis, depending on the studied characteristics.
Methods and techniques of economic analysis can be conditionally subdivided into two groups: formalized and non-formalized.
Formalized methods make it possible to present indicators in strict dependence (mainly mathematical). Among them are:
- classical methods of economic analysis;
- methods of factor analysis;
- economic and mathematical methods;
- graphic method, etc.
The classical methods and techniques of economic analysis include: the method of absolute, relative values and average values, a method of comparing indicators; grouping; compilation of analytical tables, etc.
Among the methods of factor analysis, the index method can be distinguished; methods of elimination (method of absolute and relative differences, method of chain substitution), balance method.
The economic and mathematical methods that are widely used in economic analysis include the method of correlation and regression analysis, cluster analysis, econometric methods, mathematical programming methods, game theory, queuing theory, the method of optimizing inventory (Wilson's model), etc.
The graphic reflection of the results is their representation on graphs using certain geometric shapes, lines, points - the most visual way to display and characterize the analyzed data. In economic analysis, two main types of graphs are used - diagrams and cartograms.
In charts, reporting data is depicted in the form of various shapes and lines, and in cartograms - in the form of symbols on diagrams. Depending on the construction method, a distinction is made between bar, pie (pie), line and figure charts.
Informalized methods are based on the reflection of analytical procedures at the logical level, rather than on strict analytical dependencies. These include the development of a system of indicators, the method of expert assessments, methods of situational analysis, SWOT analysis, PEST analysis, the method of functional cost analysis, the method of marginal analysis, etc.
Classical methods of economic analysis
In each case, the comparison depends on the purpose of the analysis and the tasks it faces.
Let's consider the most typical situations in which the comparison method is used.
1. Revealing the degree of fulfillment of plans by comparing the corresponding actual indicators with the planned ones (Table 12.1).
Table 12.1
As you can see from the table. 12.1, the profit plan was fulfilled by 105.8%, 661 thousand rubles were received in excess of the plan. arrived. At the same time, the plan for the sale of products was not fulfilled by 0.8% (99.2 - 100.0). In the reporting year, products were sold for 824 thousand rubles. less than it was established by the plan.
2. Comparison of the actual indicators of the reporting period with the corresponding indicators of the previous (past or baseline) period (Table 12.2).
Table 12.2
The data in Table 12.2 allow us to draw the following conclusions. In the reporting period, the organization produced products A more than in the base period by 16 units, or 4.9%. The production of product B decreased in comparison with the base period by 18 units, or by 4.2% (95.8 - 100.0).
3. Comparison of the actual indicators of the reporting period with the average values of these indicators for the past three to five years (Table 12.3).
Table 12.3
The data in Table 12.3 indicate that the sale of products A is developing successfully, since in the reporting year, sales exceeded not only last year's, but also the average annual level. The sales of product B require a deeper study, since in the reporting year the volume of sales was not only less than last year, but less than the average annual sales over the past five years.
4. Assessment of reserves for increasing production is carried out by comparing actual data on the volume of production for the reporting year with the planned indicators determined taking into account the organizational and technical measures to increase production.
5. Comparison of some economic indicators with other indicators of the organization's performance (Table 12.4).
Table 12.4
As can be seen from the data in Table. 12.4, the financial condition of the organization has deteriorated somewhat, as the duration of accounts receivable has increased, and accounts payable has decreased. This may mean that the organization has difficulties with the sale of products (for example, due to a decrease in demand) and it is forced to increase the term of a commercial loan for buyers. At the same time, the duration of accounts payable has increased, which may indicate a decrease in trust in the organization on the part of suppliers. Comparing the change in the ratio of the turnover of accounts receivable and payable, one can come to the same conclusions, since it has increased over time.
A prerequisite for applying the comparison method should be the comparability of the compared indicators (planned and reporting indicators, indicators of the reporting and past periods, etc.), which assumes:
- comparability of volume, cost, quality, structural indicators;
- the unity of the time periods for which the comparison is made;
- comparability of production conditions;
- comparability of the methodology for calculating indicators.
We emphasize that only qualitatively homogeneous quantities can be compared.
The identified deviations are the subject of further analysis. When analyzing deviations from planned values, it is advisable to cordon off the quality of the planning itself. For example, significant positive deviations from the plan (overfulfillment of the plan) may result from an underestimated or insufficiently strenuous plan.
The grouping of analytical information is the division of the studied set of objects into homogeneous groups according to the corresponding characteristics. This method of analysis is often an integral part of analytical research. A simple calculation of the results, comparison of indicators does not always allow a sufficiently complete assessment of the features of the organization's activities, the dynamics of its indicators. Therefore, before carrying out the calculations, a preliminary characterization of the population, its grouping, is carried out. It allows you to study economic phenomena and processes in interconnection, interdependence, to identify the most significant factors, to detect certain tendencies and patterns inherent in these phenomena and processes. Source data groupings are widely used in the analysis of planned and reporting indicators. With their help, it is possible to show the dependence of the level of costs on the volume of sales, turnover, etc. Without grouping, it is impossible to find out due to what the plan is overfulfilled or underfulfilled, how it is performed by different types of organizations.
The objects of study are both the economic entities themselves and their structural divisions, business operations.
Grouping involves the classification of phenomena and processes, as well as the causes and factors that determine them. It is impossible to group the phenomena on a random basis, it is necessary to make an informed choice of features. One of the most important methodological principles underlying the scientific choice of grouping features and the construction of groupings is the provision according to which they should be produced taking into account the qualitative characteristics of the grouped units of the population. These characteristics should take into account the essential (most important) features of the studied phenomenon, process or object, allowing you to combine into separate (independent) groups homogeneous socio-economic and legal nature of units of the studied population. Only well-thought-out groupings make it possible to deeply analyze the phenomena, to characterize their features, the relationship between individual indicators.
Groupings are subdivided according to the complexity of their construction:
- simple (with the help of which the relationship between objects structured according to a certain criterion is studied);
- combined (first they are divided according to one characteristic, and then within each subgroup there is a division according to other characteristics).
Depending on the goals of the analysis, typological, structural and analytical groupings are used.
In economic analysis, structural groupings are widely used in the study of the composition of economic entities (but the capacity, the level of automation, the amount of fixed assets, etc.).
Typological groupings make it possible to demarcate the studied aggregates into homogeneous groups, tines, but an essential qualitative feature. An example of a typological grouping can be the grouping of organizations by type of activity or by type of ownership. The typological grouping is drawn up in a table, the selected groups (based on a combination of grouping signs) are combined into the designated types and the number (share) of each of them is determined.
Structural grouping of analytical information can be performed to study the change in the structure of typically homogeneous groups of phenomena, processes or objects. For structural grouping, it is necessary to have homogeneous aggregates, dismembered according to the size of the changing attribute. If the typological grouping is based on qualitative characteristics, then the structural ones are based on quantitative characteristics of the studied population. Structural groupings allow you to study the internal structure of the indicator and the ratio of its individual parts. For example, using structural grouping, you can study the composition of products by nomenclature and assortment, the composition of workers by profession, work experience, by age, etc. In the process of analytical work, it is possible to group the divisions of the organization according to the level of implementation of the plan, labor productivity, equipment load, equipping with means of automation and mechanization of labor, etc., in order to determine the level of economic efficiency of individual divisions of the organization, to identify reserves for improving the work of lagging divisions.
Analytical groupings are distribution according to dependence, the relationship between two or more heterogeneous groups of phenomena or their characteristics. Analytical groupings make it possible to identify the relationship, interdependence and interaction of the studied indicators, phenomena, objects. They make it possible to reveal many hidden dependencies and relationships, which is important for making management decisions and developing the economic activity of an organization. For example, when studying the demand of buyers for the products of an organization, it is advisable to group buyers by gender, age, income level, place of residence, and other characteristics.
Methods of tabular reflection of analytical data are the most rational and easy-to-understand forms of presentation of the analysis results.
The results of the analytical summary and grouping, as a rule, are placed in analytical tables, which are a rational, visual, compact and systematic presentation of the indicators studied in the process of economic analysis.
The horizontal lines of the table are called rows, and the vertical columns (columns, columns). Each row and column has its own name (heading), corresponding to the content of the indicators placed in the table, and the table as a whole has a common name that determines its content.
Any correctly composed table contains two main elements: the subject and the predicate. Subject is an object of study or a list of units of the population (their groups), which are characterized in the table. The predicate is a list of indicators that characterize the subject.
When designing analytical tables, in the process of summarizing and grouping indicators used for analysis, it should be borne in mind that the table should not be a simple summary of data placed in an arbitrary order. Each table should contain an analytical presentation of the observation results, so that a digital picture of the phenomena that are subject to analysis unfolds in a sequential row of rows and a graph.
The table should be optimal in size. On the one hand, it should contain all the necessary indicators, on the other, it should not be overloaded with redundant statistical information.
The table should have a clear common name, as well as the names of the subject and predicate, their groups and sections. Tables without titles are difficult to understand. In addition, they should indicate the units of measurement, territory, time period and other necessary information linking the table to a specific content, amount of data, time and space.
Subject lines and predicate graphs can be arranged from particular to general or vice versa. Totals are usually placed on the last line or column. However, based on the tasks solved by the table, the totals can be shown in the first line.
If the table is large, its rows and columns can be numbered (designated) by ordinal numbers or alphabetically.
All numerical data given in the table must have the same degree of accuracy (integers, integers with tenths or hundredths), which facilitates the perception of the information contained in the table.
In the absence of data for a certain year or for some parameter, instead of the corresponding numbers, ellipsis or the label “no data” are usually put. If the absence of any data is an objective fact (for example, the absence of a change in any indicator), then a dash (dash) is placed instead of the corresponding data.
All doubts and questions that may arise while reading the table should be disclosed in the notes to it.
Functional factor analysis methods
An important component of economic analysis is the study and quantitative assessment of the influence of factors on the value of the studied economic indicators.
Economic factor analysis refers to the disclosure of a full set of direct, quantitatively measurable factors that affect the change in the effective indicator and the assessment of their impact.
By the nature of the relationship between the indicators, methods of functional (deterministic) and stochastic factor analysis are distinguished.
Deterministic (functional) factor analysis is a technique for studying the influence of factors, the connection of which with the effective indicator is of a functional nature.
The main differences between this method of analysis are:
- building a deterministic model based on logical analysis;
- the presence of a direct or inverse functional relationship between factorial and performance indicators;
- the impossibility of separating the results of the influence of simultaneously acting factors that cannot be combined in one model;
- study of relationships in the short term.
The disadvantage of deterministic factor analysis is that scientific and technical factors of intensification of production cannot be included in the model of direct links, and therefore, their underestimation will lead to underestimation or overestimation of individual results. Another disadvantage is that the calculation results will depend on how logically and economically justified the dependence model is, and the conclusions depend on this, in turn.
There are four types of deterministic models:
- multiplicative;
- additive;
- multiples;
- mixed.
Generalized multiplicative models can be represented by the formula
where Y is the effective indicator; Σ is the sum of factor indicators; x 1, x 2, ..., x n - factors whose influence is studied in this model.
Such models, for example, include the proceeds from the sale of the organization's products as the sum of sales of certain types of products, the sum as the sum of conditionally constant and conditionally variable cost items, etc.
Multiple models represent the ratio of factor indicators and have the form:
where B is the proceeds from the sale of goods for the study period; З - average stock of goods.
Mixed (combined) models are a combination of the above models and can be described using special expressions:
Examples of such models are indicators of capital expenditures per 1 ruble. manufactured products, profitability indicators, etc.
For a deeper study of the relationship between indicators and quantitative measurement of the many factors that influenced the effective indicator, you can use transformations of the models in order to include new factor indicators.
To detail the generalizing factor indicator into its components that are of interest for analytical calculations, use the method of lengthening, expanding, reducing the factor system (these methods are discussed in paragraph 10.6).
The detail of factor analysis is largely determined by the number of factors, the influence of which can be quantified, therefore, multivariate models are of great importance in the analysis. Their construction is based on the following principles:
- the place of each factor in the model should correspond to its role in the formation of an effective indicator;
- the model should be built from a complete two-factor model by sequentially breaking down factors, usually qualitative, into their components;
- when writing a formula for a multivariate model, the factors should be located from left to right in the order of their replacement.
Building a factorial model is the first stage of deterministic analysis. Next, a method for assessing the influence of factors is determined.
The index method is based on relative indicators expressing the ratio of the level of a given phenomenon to its level taken as a comparison base (to its level in the past or to the level of a similar phenomenon taken as a base).
Several types of indices are used that are used in the analysis: aggregate, arithmetic, harmonic, etc. There are individual and aggregate (group) indices. Indices expressing the ratio of directly measurable quantities are called individual, and those characterizing the ratio of complex phenomena - aggregate (group). Individual indices are calculated on the basis of indicators, but which are not constituted by factor models. For example, price (p), cost (c), volume (q).
This method is used in multiplicative and multiple models.
Using the aggregate formula of indices and observing the established computational procedure, it is possible to determine the influence of factors on the change in the effective indicator. The calculation algorithm is as follows:
Σx 1 y 1 - Σx 0 y 0 = (Σx 1 y 1 - Σx 0 y 1) + (Σx 0 y 1 - Σx 0 y 0)
where x is a quantitative factor; y is a quality factor; J xy = Σx 1 y 1 / Σx 0 y 0 is the index of the change in the resulting indicator; J x = Σx 1 y 0 / Σx 0 y 0 - the influence of the quantitative factor; J y = Σx 0 y 1 / Σx 0 y 0 - the influence of the qualitative factor.
Having calculated the indices and constructing a time series that characterizes, for example, the output in value terms, one can competently judge the dynamics of the volume of production.
Example 12.1
The turnover of the trade organization in the reporting year amounted to 78,300 thousand rubles, in the past - 64,100 thousand rubles. Prices in the reporting year increased by an average of 18%. It is necessary to determine:
- change in the value of the turnover in the reporting year;
- influence on the change in the turnover of the price factor;
- influence on the change in the turnover of the physical volume of turnover (the number of goods sold);
- the share of the increase in turnover due to changes in prices and the physical volume of turnover.
1. Based on the condition, it is possible to build a multiplicative model of the development of turnover in the reporting year under the influence of the price factor and the factor of the physical volume of turnover: I pq = I p × I q.
2. Using the aggregate form of indices, the resulting model can be transformed as follows:
Σp 1 q 1 | = | Σp 1 q 1 | × | Σp 0 q 1 |
Σp 0 q 0 | Σp 0 q 1 | Σp 0 q 0 |
where Σp 1 q 1 is the turnover of the reporting year; Σp 0 q 0 - last year's turnover; Σp 0 q 1 - turnover of the reporting year in prices of the previous year (turnover in comparable prices).
Hence, the scheme for calculating factors will take the form:
Σp 1 q 1 - Σp 0 q 0 = (Σp 1 q 1 - Σp 1 q 0) + (Σp 1 q 0 - Σp 0 q 0) or ΔΣpq = ΔΣpq p + ΔΣpq q.
where (Σp 1 q 0 - Σp 0 q 0), ΔΣpq p - price influence; (Σp 1 q 1 - Σp 1 q 0), ΔΣpq q is the effect of quantity.
3. Since prices in the reporting year increased by 18%, the price index: I p = 1.18.
4. The turnover in comparable prices will be: Σp 0 q 1 = Σp 1 q 1 / I p = 78300 / 1.18 = 66356 thousand rubles.
5. Let's calculate the index of the physical volume of the trade organization's turnover:
I q = Σp 0 q 1 / Σp 0 q 0 = 66 356/64 500 = 1.03.
6. The change in the value of the turnover of the organization (ΔΣpq) can be calculated by subtracting from the numerator of the first fraction included in the model, its denominator:
ΔΣpq = Σp 1 q 1 - Σp 0 q 0 = 78300 - 64500 = 13800 thousand rubles.
This change was obtained as a result of the combined influence of two factors: the factor of prices and the factor of the quantity of goods sold.
7. To identify the influence of the price factor on the change in the turnover of the organization (ΔΣpq p), it follows from the numerator of the second fraction included in the model, subtract its denominator:
ΔΣpq p = Σp 1 q 1 - Σp 0 q 1 = 78300 - 66 356 = +11944 thousand rubles.
Thus, due to the increase in prices by an average of 18%, the trade organization received additional revenue in the amount of 11,944 thousand rubles.
8. To reveal the influence of the factor of the physical volume of turnover on the change in the turnover of the organization (ΔΣpq q), it follows from the numerator of the third fraction included in the model, subtract its denominator:
ΔΣpq q = Σp 0 q 1 - Σp 0 q 0 = 66 356 - 64 500 = +1856 thousand rubles.
Thus, due to an increase in the number of goods sold by 3%, the trade organization received additional revenue in the amount of 1,856 thousand rubles.
9. Let's check the correctness of the calculations:
ΔΣpq = ΔΣpq p + ΔΣpq q = 11944 + 1856 = +13800 thousand rubles.
10. Let's calculate the share of the turnover increase due to the change:
a) prices: D p = ΔΣpq p / ΔΣpq × 100 = +11944 / 13800 × 100 = 85.6%;
b) the physical volume of turnover: D q = ΔΣpq q / ΔΣpq × 100 = 1856/13800 × 100 = 13.4%.
Consequently, in the reporting year, an increase in the turnover of a trade organization was obtained mainly due to an increase in prices for goods sold.
Elimination is a logical technique in which the influence of one factor is sequentially highlighted and the effect of all the others is excluded. In other words, to eliminate means to eliminate, to exclude the influence of all factors on the value of the effective indicator, in addition, the influence of which is assessed quantitatively. In this case, it is assumed that all factors change independently of each other, i.e. first, one factor changes, and all the others remain unchanged, then the second changes while the rest remain unchanged, etc.
The following elimination methods are used: difference method, chain substitution method and integral method.
The method of absolute differences is used only in multiplicative and mixed models. When using it, the absolute difference in terms of the studied factors is preliminarily determined. Then the deviation (difference) for one factor is multiplied by the absolute value of the other factor. In this case, the influence of the extensive factor is first calculated, and then the intensive one.
Any resulting indicator characterizing the economic activity of an organization can be obtained either by increasing resources (in an extensive way), or by increasing the efficiency of using available resources without further attracting them (in an intensive way). However, as a rule, the result is achieved in both ways at the same time. Therefore, the result obtained can be described by the following model:
where P is the resulting indicator; E is an extensive factor; And - an intense factor.
ΔRe = (E 1 - E 0) × I 0 = ΔE × I 0,
where ΔRe is the change in the result due to the influence of the extensive factor; E 0, E 1 - values of the extensive factor in the baseline and reporting periods, respectively; And 0 is the value of the intensive factor in the base period.
In order to calculate the influence of the intensive factor, it is necessary to multiply the change in its value by the value of the extensive factor in the reporting period, but in the reporting period the intensity of the use of available resources will be increased:
ΔPi = (I 1 - I 0) × E 1 = ΔI × E 1,
where ΔPi is the change in the result due to the influence of the intensive factor; I 0, I 1 - values of the intensive factor in the base and reporting periods, respectively; E 1 - the size of the extensive factor in the reporting period.
Example 12.2
It is necessary to calculate by the method of absolute differences the influence on the change in the retail trade turnover of the trade organization of the factor of change in the retail space and the factor of change in the volume of the retail trade turnover per 1m 2 of the retail space.
For calculations, we use the data in Table. 12.5.
As you can see from the table. 12.5, in the reporting year, the retail trade turnover increased by 30,335 thousand rubles. This increase is due to the influence of extensive and intensive factors. The extensive factor is the retail space, and the intensive factor is the turnover per 1 m 2 of the retail space. The difference method can be used to calculate the influence of these factors. First, you need to write a model of the relationship between the result and the factors. Therefore, we denote the turnover of a trade organization by the letter B (revenue), the extensive factor by the letter S, and the intensive factor by the letter P (sales). It should be remembered that the letters for designating the result and factors are selected based on the convenience of the user, no generally accepted designations have been established in this case.
Table 12.5
So, the communication model will look like: B = S × P.
ΔBs = ΔS × P 0 = +200 × 94.6316 = + 18926 thousand rubles.
2. Factor of changes in retail trade turnover per 1 sq. M. m. of retail space:
ΔВр = ΔР × S 1 = +9.9206 × 1150 = +11409 thousand rubles.
The sum of the influence of factors:
As can be seen from the table and the calculations, in the reporting year, the retail trade turnover of the trade organization increased by 30,335 thousand rubles. This happened, first of all, due to the increase in the sales area. The increase in the sales area by 200 m 2 made it possible to increase the revenue of the organization by 18,926 thousand rubles. It is also positive that in the reporting year, the efficiency of using the retail space has increased. The increase in turnover per each square meter of retail space allowed to increase the turnover of the trade organization by 11409 thousand rubles.
At the same time, it should be noted that the turnover of a trade organization developed mainly in an extensive way.
If the extensive and intensive factors are interchanged in the model shown in the example, then the calculation results will be different. This means that the order of substitution in the multiplicative model is extremely important for the interpretation of the results obtained.
Therefore, before proceeding with the calculations, it is necessary:
- to identify a clear relationship between the studied indicators;
- clearly define extensive (quantitative) and intensive (qualitative) indicators;
- correctly determine the sequence of substitutions.
Relative difference method is used to measure the influence of factors on the growth of the effective indicator only in multiplicative models.
The calculation of the influence of factors is carried out as follows.
To calculate the influence of the first factor, it is necessary to multiply the base value of the effective indicator by the relative increase of the first factor, expressed as a percentage (growth rate), and divide the result by 100%.
Change in the result due to the extensive factor (ΔRe):
ΔPe = (P 0 × ΔE%) / 100%;
ΔE% = (E 1 - E 0) / E 0 × 100%.
To calculate the influence of the intensive factor, it is necessary to add the change in the effective indicator due to the first factor to the base value of the effective indicator and then multiply the resulting amount by the relative increase in the intensive factor in percent and divide the result by 100%.
Change in the result due to the intensive factor (ΔPi):
ΔPi = (P 0 + ΔPe) × ΔI% / 100%;
ΔI% = (I 1 - I 0) / I 0 × 100%.
Example 12.3
Let's carry out calculations according to the data of the previous example from table. 12.5.
1. Factor of change in retail space (extensive):
ΔВs = (В 0 × ΔS%) / 100% = 89900 × 21.0526 / 100 = + 18926 thousand rubles.
2. Factor of changes in retail trade turnover per 1 m 2 of retail space:
ΔВр = (В 0 + ΔВs) × ΔИ% / 100% = (89900 + 18926) × 10.4834 / 100 = = +11409 thousand rubles.
The sum of the influence of factors:
ΔВ = ΔВs + ΔВр = (+18926) + (+11409) = +30335 thousand rubles.
The method of relative differences can also be used if the number of factors being studied is more than two. Moreover, the influence of the third, fourth, etc. factors (if any) is determined similarly to the calculation of the second factor with the addition of the change in the result to the sum due to the influence of the second, third, etc. factors.
This method is very effective in cases where the source data contain relative changes in factor indicators in percentages or coefficients (indices). It is convenient to use when it is required to calculate the influence of a large number of factors.
Chain substitution method... The essence of this technique of economic analysis lies in the sequential elimination of some factors to determine the influence of others, i.e. in the successive replacement of the base value of the factor indicators included in the dependence model (calculation formula), the actual value (size of the reporting period) of these indicators. After each replacement, the calculation result is compared with the result obtained before the replacement of this indicator in this formula. The calculated deviations reflect the influence of each factor.
If the indicator is the product of three factors (factors), then the formula for the base indicator will be as follows:
Y 0 = a 0 × b 0 × c 0,
and for the actual indicator:
Y 1 = a 1 × b 1 × c 1.
The change in the effective indicator, on the one hand, can be represented as the difference between its actual and basic value, and on the other hand, as the sum of changes in the effective indicator under the influence of individual factors:
Y 1 - Y 0 = ΔY = ΔYa + ΔYb + ΔYc.
To determine the influence of each of the three factors, it is necessary to make the following calculations.
First, the influence of factor a is calculated. To do this, in the basic model, we replace the basic value of this factor with its actual value:
Y 2 = a 1 × b 0 × c 0;
Y 0 = a 0 × b 0 × c 0.
These calculation formulas differ only in the value of the factor a, the value of the remaining factors does not change. Therefore, if we subtract the basic indicator (Y 0) from the obtained conventional indicator (Y 2), then the result obtained will show the influence of the first factor on the change in the resulting indicator:
Y 2 - Y 0 = ΔYa.
Then sequentially, i.e. from right to left, in the formula Y 2, we replace the base value of the next factor (factor "b") with its actual value and get the following conventional indicator Y 3. It differs from Y 2 only in the value of the factor "b":
Y 3 = a 1 × b 1 × c 0;
Y 2 = a 1 × b 0 × c 0.
Y 3 - Y 2 = ΔYb.
In the following formula, we replace the base value of the factor c with the actual one and obtain the formula Y 1, which differs from Y 3 only by the value of the factor c:
Y 1 = a 1 × b 1 × c 1;
Y 2 = a 1 × b 0 × c 0.
Y 1 - Y 3 = ΔYc.
- the factor of changing the retail space;
- factor of change in the number of working days;
- the factor of change in the volume of the average daily retail trade turnover per 1m 2 of retail space.
For calculations, we use the data in Table. 12.6.
Table 12.6
First, you need to write a model of the relationship between performance and factor indicators. It will look like this:
B = S × D × R.
Therefore, the model for calculating the retail trade turnover is:
- in the base year: B 0 = S 0 × D 0 × P 0;
- in the reporting year: B 1 = S 1 × D 1 × R 1.
The obtained models show that three factors influenced the development of retail trade turnover in the reporting year.
Let's calculate the influence of each factor separately. To calculate and quantify the influence of factors, we use the method of chain substitution.
1. The basic value of the retail trade turnover of the investigated organization can be calculated by the formula B 0 = S 0 × D 0 × P 0. As you can see from the table. 12.6, its value was 89,900 thousand rubles.
2. Then, in this formula, we replace S 0 by S 1 and we obtain the value of the retail trade turnover, provided that the area will be the reporting year, and the number of working days and the average daily retail trade turnover per 1 m 2 of the retail area - the base one:
B 2 = S 1 × D 0 × R 0 = 1150 × 310 × 0.3053 = 108,826 thousand rubles.
Hence, the influence of the retail space factor will be:
ΔВs = В 2 - В 0 = S 1 × D 0 × R 0 - S 0 × D 0 × R 0 = (S 1 - S 0) × D 0 × P 0 = 108,826 - 89900 = +18,926 thousand rubles.
Thus, we can conclude that the factor of retail space had a positive effect on the change in the turnover of a trade organization, since by increasing the area by 200 m 2 it created the prerequisites for an increase in turnover by 18,926 thousand rubles.
In formula B2, replace D 0 with D 1 and obtain the conditional value of the retail trade turnover based on the fact that the area and the number of working days will be the same as in the reporting year, and the average daily retail turnover per 1 m2 of retail space is the same as in the basic one:
B 3 = S 1 × D 1 × P 0 = 1150 × 305 × 0.3053 = 107 071 thousand rubles.
Hence, the influence of the factor of the number of working days will be:
ΔV D = V 3 - V 2 = S 1 × D 1 × P 0 - S 1 × D 0 × P 0 = S 1 × (D 1 - D 0) × P 0 = 107071 - 108826 = -1755 thousand rubles ...
As can be seen from the calculation, the reduction in the number of working days in the reporting period, in comparison with the base one, by 5 days created the preconditions for a decrease in the trade organization's turnover by 1,755 thousand rubles.
4. Then, in the formula B 3, we replace P 0 by P 1 and we obtain the actual retail trade turnover in the reporting year: B 1 = S 1 × D 1 × P 1.
Data on the value of this turnover can be taken from table. 12.6. The actual turnover of the trade organization in the reporting year amounted to 120,235 thousand rubles.
Hence, the influence of the factor of the average daily retail trade turnover per 1 m2 of retail space will be:
ΔВp = В 1 - В 3 = S 1 × D 1 × R 1 - S 1 × D 1 × R 0 = S 1 × D 1 × (P 1 - P 0) = 120235 - 107071 = +13164 thousand rubles.
Thus, from table. 12.6 shows that in the reporting year, the efficiency of using the retail space has increased. If in the base year the average daily turnover received by a trade organization from each square meter of retail space was 0.3053 gys. rubles, then in the reporting year - 0.3428 thousand rubles. Increase in turnover from one square meter of retail space on average per day by 0.0375 thousand rubles.
5. The cumulative influence of factors:
ΔВ = ΔВs + ΔВд + ΔВр = (+18926) + (-1755) + (+13164) = +30335 thousand rubles, which corresponds to the data in Table. 12.6.
It should be noted that this method of analysis is used only when the relationship between the studied phenomena is represented as a direct or inversely proportional relationship. In these cases, the analyzed aggregate indicator as a function of several variables should be depicted as a product or quotient from dividing some indicators by others.
The advantages of this method are versatility of application, simplicity of calculations.
The disadvantage of the method of chain substitution is that, depending on the chosen order of replacement of factors, the results of factorial decomposition have different meanings. This is due to the fact that as a result of the application of this method, a certain indecomposable residue is formed, which is added to the magnitude of the influence of the last factor or is distributed among the influence of all qualitative factors. In practice, the accuracy of the assessment of factors is neglected, highlighting the relative importance of the influence of one factor or another. However, there are rules that determine the sequence of substitution:
- if there are quantitative and qualitative indicators in the factor model, the influence of quantitative factors is considered first;
- if the model is represented by several quantitative and qualitative indicators, the sequence of substitution is determined by logical analysis.
For example, the annual volume of production (B) on equipment of the i-th group can be considered as the product of the number of pieces of equipment (Ki) and the annual productivity of a piece of equipment (GPi), t.s. be described by a model of the following form:
В = Кi × ГПi,
where Ki is an extensive (quantitative) factor; GPi is an intensive (qualitative) factor.
In turn, the annual productivity of a piece of equipment depends on the number of working days (D) and the daily productivity of a piece of equipment DPi, where the first factor will also be extensive, and the second - intensive. From here, the original model will take the form:
B = Ki × D × DPi.
The daily productivity can also be considered as the product of the extensive factor - the shift ratio (Kcm), and the intensive factor of the shift productivity SPi. Consequently, the annual volume of production can be described by the model:
B = Ki × D × Kcm × SPi
Balance method economic analysis is used in the study of the influence of factors on a certain effective indicator, provided that they are all interconnected in the balance formula. The method consists in comparing, comparing two sets of indicators striving for a certain balance. It allows you to identify a new analytical (balancing) indicator as a result. Balance linking of various indicators is needed to study individual aspects of the economic activities of organizations. With the help of this technique, the ratio of the availability and receipt of commodity funds with their use is analyzed, etc.
For example, the balance of goods has the formula
Зн + П = Р + В + Зк,
where Зн and Зк - stocks of goods at the beginning and end of the study period; P - receipt of goods; B - other disposal of goods (natural loss, damage, return of goods to suppliers, etc.); P is the volume of sales of goods (revenue).
Based on the commodity balance model, it is possible to identify the influence of factors on the volume of sales of goods in physical or value terms. To do this, on the basis of the commodity balance model, the sale of goods in the reporting period is first calculated, then in the reference period, and then the difference for each item of the commodity balance is calculated:
P 1 × (Zn 1 + P 1 - B 1 - Zk 1) - P 0 × (3n 0 + P 0 - B 0 - Zk 0) = ΔP = ΔZn + ΔP - ΔV - ΔZk.
Thus, from the model characterizing the change in the resultant and factor indicators, one can immediately see not only the change in the result of the organization's economic activity, but also the influence on it of each of the factors under study.
Example 12.5
Table data. 12.7 characterize the elements of the trade organization's balance sheet in the past and reporting periods.
Table 12.7
Necessary:
- using the balance linking method, calculate the influence of factors on the change in the volume of sales of goods in the reporting period compared to the previous year;
- analyze the results.
As you can see from the table. 12.7, the influence of factors on the change in the retail trade turnover of a trade organization was calculated by the comparison method, which leads to an incorrect assessment of the influence of a number of factors (other disposal, stocks of goods at the end of the year). Therefore, it is better to use the balance method (amounts in thousand rubles):
73864 (5149 + 74578 - 520 - 5343) - 71401 (5344 + 71842 - 630 -5149) = +2457 = (-195) + (+2736) - (-100) - (+194)
or
+2457 = -195 + 2736 + 100 - 194.
The calculations show the true influence of the factors. The retail trade turnover increased under the influence of an increase in the receipt of goods and a decrease in other disposal of goods, a negative impact on the dynamics of turnover had a decrease in inventories of goods at the beginning of the period and their increase at the end of the period.
When using the balance method in the process of economic analysis of the organization's supply of raw materials, the need for raw materials, the sources of covering the need are compared and a balancing indicator is determined - a shortage or surplus of raw materials. This method analyzes the use of working time (balance of working time), the use of production capacity (balance of production capacity), balance of labor resources, etc.
As an auxiliary, the balance method is used to check the results of calculations of the influence of factors on the effective aggregate indicator. If the sum of the influence of factors on the effective indicator is equal to its deviation from the base value, then, therefore, the calculations were carried out correctly. Lack of equality indicates an incomplete consideration of factors or mistakes made:
ΔY = | n | ΔY (x i) |
Σ | ||
i = 1 |
where ΔY is the change in the effective indicator; x i - factors; ΔY (x i) - change in the effective indicator due to the factor x i.
The balance method is also used to determine the size of the influence of individual factors on the change in the effective indicator, if the influence of other factors is known.
Balance analysis technique can be used to study the financial position of an organization. With its help, on the basis of the balance sheet, the data of the liability (sources of funds) are compared with the data of the asset (composition and placement of funds), the correct use of funds, bank loans, etc. is established.
Integral way... The disadvantage of the difference method and the chain substitution method, as already mentioned, is that the calculation results depend on the sequence of replacement of factors and the indecomposable remainder is often unreasonably attributed to the influence of a change in the qualitative factor. This disadvantage is eliminated by using the integral method. It does not require the use of techniques for the distribution of the indecomposable remainder over the factors, since the logarithmic law of redistribution of factor loads operates in it. The integral method allows achieving a complete decomposition of the effective indicator by factors and is universal in nature, i.e. applicable to multiplicative, multiple and mixed models. The operation of calculating a definite integral is reduced to the construction of integrands that depend on the type of function or model of the factor system.
This method is objective, since it excludes any assumptions about the role of factors before the analysis, the provision on the independence of factors is observed.
Using this method allows you to get more accurate calculation results that do not depend on the location of the factors: the change in the effective factor is proportionally decomposed between the factors.
If the influence of two factors on the effective indicator is being studied, then the formula can be used for the calculation:
The calculation of the influence of factors is carried out according to the formulas:
ΔYa = b 0 × Δa + (Δa × Δb) / 2;
ΔYb = a 0 × Δb + (Δa × Δb) / 2.
Unformalized methods of economic analysis
Expert diagnostics means analysis tools based on a synthesis of assessments and information given by experts. This method is used when it is necessary to select a solution that cannot be determined based on accurate calculations. Such situations often arise in the development of modern production management problems and, most importantly, in forecasting and long-term planning. The essence of the method of expert assessments is that experts conduct an intuitive-logical analysis of the problem with a quantitative assessment of judgments and formal processing of the results. The generalized opinion of experts obtained as a result of processing is accepted as one of the options for solving the problems facing the organization. The complex use of intuition (unconscious thinking), logical thinking and quantitative assessments with their formal processing allows you to get an effective solution to the problem.
Thus, this method of analysis is based on information obtained often by contact methods through conducting special expert interviews and expert assessments obtained on their basis.
Expert assessments are quantitative or ordinal assessments of processes or phenomena that cannot be directly measured. They are based on expert judgment. In principle, therefore, they cannot be considered completely objective, since various side factors can affect a specialist-expert. At the same time, the active and purposeful participation of specialists in each stage of managerial decision-making makes it possible to increase their quality and efficiency.
In the process of analysis, experts use questionnaire methods and methods of group examination.
The advantages of these methods are the simplicity of organization, the possibility of using statistical data processing, the ability to cover large groups of information.
Among the shortcomings, one can single out the incompleteness of answers, the subjective factor of the respondents, the possibility of misunderstanding the questions by experts.
Various techniques are used to process the subjective opinions of experts, the main of which is ranking.
Ranking involves ordering the evaluated objects in ascending or descending order of their qualities. Ranking can be carried out by several methods, but each of them is based on expert opinions - the judgments of specialists about the object being evaluated.
The most common ranking method is soft rating. According to this method, experts leave in the list, without indicating the priority, the best, from their point of view, evaluated objects. The highest rank is given to the object with the highest number of expert votes.
Another way of making a rating is direct ranking. The essence of this method lies in the fact that experts arrange the evaluated objects in a certain order (as a rule, of increasing or decreasing qualities), then the arithmetic mean of each object is calculated and in accordance with this value a finally ordered list is drawn up. The reliability of the examination results is checked by the value of the concordance coefficient - the consistency of the experts' methods.
A more complex method of ranking is pairwise comparison, according to which experts, comparing each two evaluated objects in turn, determine which of them is better, then these opinions are averaged and the final rating is compiled according to the rule: “If A is better than B, B is better than C, then Better C ". The problem of using this method is associated with the fact that experts have to analyze a large number of pairs, while averaging can lead to a logical deadlock: “A is better than B, B is better than C, C is better than A”. In addition, direct ranking cannot be applied if the list of graded items remains open.
When using the scoring-based ranking method, the list of evaluated objects can be unlimited. The experts themselves name the number of objects and evaluate them in points or arrange them in a certain order, while the corresponding number of points is assigned to the ordinal number. The scores are added together and the objects are arranged in ascending or descending order to obtain a finally ordered list of ranked items.
The main problem of ranking as one of the evaluation methods is related to the fact that comparisons of objects are carried out according to several indicators and the results can be ambiguous: a leader in one indicator can become an outsider in another (a classic example: high profitability of corporate securities with a high degree of investment risk).
Therefore, there is a rating in which objects are ranked separately for each indicator. The right to determine which of the ranked qualities is the most important is given to the one who uses the results of the ranking. Attempts are also being made to reconcile ranked lists on the basis of elementary methods for calculating weighted averages, taking into account the weight factors (importance for analysis) of indicators or a special mathematical and logical apparatus.
Varieties of the expert assessment method are:
- method of "brainstorming" (the emergence of ideas occurs in a creative dispute and personal contact of specialists);
- the method of "brainstorming" (when one group of experts puts forward an idea, and another analyzes it);
- method "delphi" (provides an anonymous survey of a specialist on previously prepared questions with subsequent processing of answers).
The process of developing management decisions depends on the level of information support, the ability to analyze the data obtained and synthesize, on their basis, options for possible solutions. The situational approach allows for effective management of a specific management decision-making situation.
Situational analysis is a complex process that makes it possible to justify the adoption and management decisions, which is based on the analysis of a single management situation. In the process of situational analysis, the induction method is used, the analysis begins with the study of specific situations, problems arising in the activities of the organization, for which a managerial decision must be made.
Situational analysis allows, based on a deeper study of situations, the establishment of trends, patterns and factors that determine their development, to justify strategic management decisions up to adjusting the strategic goals of the organization.
One of the main problems solved by a situational analysis is to establish the factors that determine the development of the situation. At the same time, it is important to establish not all, namely, the main factors that have a significant impact on the development of the situation, and discard those factors that cannot have a significant impact.
To identify the main factors in the process of analyzing a particular situation, various techniques are used, among which are:
- brainstorming method;
- method of two-round questionnaire.
“Brainstorming” in situational analysis is usually carried out in two stages: at the first stage, ideas are generated, and at the second stage, the identified ideas are discussed, their assessment and the development of a collective point of view. At the second stage, the so-called court method can be used: the experts participating in the analysis are divided into supporters and opponents of the expressed opinion.
A two-round survey involves the individual work of specialists to identify the most important, main factors that determine the development of the situation. In the first round, each of the specialists fills out a specially designed questionnaire, in which he indicates the main factors and substantiates the reasons for classifying these factors as the main ones. The factors entered into the questionnaire are ranked by a specialist according to the degree of their influence on the development of the situation. In the second round, a cross-review of the questionnaires completed in the first round is carried out. This means that the questionnaires completed by one specialist evaluate others and agree or disagree with the assessments made by him. The results of the second round are processed by the analytical group, based on the data presented in the questionnaires, a list of factors that, in the opinion of experts, determine the development of the situation.
In situational analysis, various modeling techniques can be used:
- analog models, with the help of which, for example, the organizational structure and the passage of commands are modeled;
- mathematical models that allow you to track the development of the situation by establishing precise dependencies, for example, the relationship between production volumes and costs.
With their help, the tasks of resource allocation in strategic management and many other tasks can be solved; game theory models, etc.
Conducting a situational analysis and making management decisions based on it, it is impossible to unambiguously determine the direction in which the situation will develop. However, it allows you to foresee the most likely scenarios for the development of the situation, to prepare the most preferable alternative solutions in each of the possible directions of the development of the situation. A scenario is mainly a qualitative description of possible variants of the development of the object under study under various combinations of certain, predetermined conditions. The scenario method is not intended for forecasting, it only has to show in an expanded form the possible scenarios for the development of events for their further analysis and selection of the most realistic.
Situational and scenario analysis methods are closely related to the SWOT analysis method.
SWOT is an acronym for Strengts, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats. The internal situation of the company is mainly reflected in S and W, and the external one - in O and T. The method of 5№ OG analysis allows, on the one hand, to identify the internal strengths and weaknesses of the organization, and on the other hand - external opportunities and threats, and also to establish connections between them.
The classical presentation of information for such an analysis is the compilation of a table of the strengths in the organization's activities, its weaknesses, potential opportunities and external threats (Table 12.8).
Table 12.8
At the intersection of SW with OT, an expert assessment of their mutual influence in points is put down. The total score by rows and columns shows the priority of taking into account one factor or another when forming a strategy.
Based on the results of the SWOT analysis, a matrix of strategic measures is compiled:
- activities to be undertaken in order to use strengths to increase the capacity of the organization;
- activities to be carried out, overcoming weaknesses and using the presented opportunities;
- activities that will use the strengths of the organization to eliminate threats;
- activities that minimize the weaknesses of the organization to avoid threats.
When using the SWOT analysis method, several rules must be followed:
- to specify as much as possible the scope of the SWOT analysis. When conducting a business-wide analysis, the results are likely to be too generalized and useless for practical application;
- correctness when attributing a particular factor to strengths / weaknesses or opportunities / threats;
- use of versatile objective information.
SWOT analysis is only a tool for structuring the available information; it will not give clear and clearly formulated recommendations, specific answers. It only helps to visualize the main factors, as well as to estimate, in a first approximation, the mathematical expectation of certain events.
The simplicity of a SWOT analysis is deceiving; its results depend on the completeness and quality of the original information. Errors made during the formation of the table (the inclusion of unnecessary factors or the loss of important ones, incorrect assessment of the weight coefficients and mutual influence) are difficult to identify in the process of further analysis and lead to incorrect conclusions, and therefore erroneous strategic decisions.
SWOT analysis can be deepened using the PEST analysis method.
PEST analysis is an analysis method that allows you to identify political (Policy), economic (Economy), social (Society) and technological (Technology) environmental factors that can affect the strategy of the organization. Politics is studied because it regulates power, which in turn determines the organization's environment and the acquisition of key resources for its activities. The main reason for studying economics is to create a picture of resource allocation at the state level, which is the most important condition for the organization's activities. No less important consumer preferences are determined using the social component of PEST analysis. The purpose of researching a technological component is to identify and study trends in technologies that change in the process of scientific and technological progress and are often the reasons for changes and losses in the market, as well as the emergence of new products.
Functional cost analysis (FSA) is a method of technical and economic research of systems aimed at optimizing the relationship between their consumer properties (the ability to satisfy certain user needs) and the cost of creating these properties. In other words, functional-cost analysis is understood as a method of systematic study of the functions of an individual product or a specific production and economic process, or a management structure, aimed at minimizing costs at the design stages, mastering production, sales, industrial and domestic consumption with a certain quality, marginal utility and durability.
Functional cost analysis is an effective way to identify reserves for cost reduction, which is based on finding cheaper ways to perform main functions (through organizational, technical, technological and other production changes) while eliminating unnecessary functions.
The ultimate goal of functional cost analysis is to find the most economical options for a particular practical solution from the point of view of the consumer and manufacturer.
The FSA method allows you to reorganize activities in such a way that a sustainable reduction in cost, labor intensity and time is achieved. To do this, you need to do the following:
- generate a ranked list of functions by cost, labor intensity or time;
- select functions with high cost, labor intensity and time consuming;
- eliminate unnecessary functions;
- reduce the time required to perform functions;
- organize the joint use of all possible functions;
- reallocate the resources freed up as a result of the improvements.
These actions improve the quality of business processes. In addition, improving the quality of business processes is carried out through a comparative assessment and selection of rational (in terms of cost or time criterion) technologies for performing operations or procedures that are elements of business processes.
Functional value analysis is based on the following statement: each product, object, etc. produced, exists in order to satisfy certain needs (to fulfill its functions). A closer look at any object can be seen that it performs not one, but always many functions. In the process of analysis, they can be divided into basic, auxiliary and unnecessary (unnecessary or generally harmful). However, in any case, the creation of these functions in the subject is associated with a certain cost of funds. Hence the fact becomes obvious that if functions are not needed, then the costs for their creation are also superfluous. Therefore, the functional-cost analysis divides all costs into those that are functionally necessary for the object to fulfill its functional purpose and into unnecessary ones, generated by the wrong choice or imperfection of design solutions.
Moreover, each function performed by the research object can be implemented in different ways. Different ways of performing the function depend on the applied technological and technical solutions and, accordingly, are associated with different amounts of costs. This allows you to choose such a way to implement a certain function, which will ensure and minimize the cost of its creation. Thus, by replacing the existing method of performing the function with a cheaper one, a reduction in the cost of the product is achieved.
In order to ensure the greatest return from the use of the VAS method, it is necessary to observe a number of principles for conducting an analytical study:
- the principle of early diagnosis, the essence of which is that the size of the identified reserves depends on at what stage of the product life cycle the analysis is carried out: pre-production, production, operation, disposal. As a rule, unnecessary costs are mainly incorporated at the design stage;
- the principle of optimal detail. The main meaning of the VAS is to highlight the consumer functions of the research object (product, process). However, if the object under study is complex enough, then as a result of its dismemberment into separate functions, too many of them may be formed. This narrow detail makes analysis difficult and less effective. Therefore, it is advisable to first divide the object of research into large parts (separate units of products, separate groups of technological operations, and then, for a deeper study, select smaller objects in them);
- the principle of consistency provides for the use of a certain logical scheme of detailing - from general to specific (object - node - function). At the same time, the results of the analysis at each stage depend on the completeness and quality of the research at the previous stages;
- the principle of allocating a leading link assumes that in any object of research (product, process) there is some part that requires large costs to ensure the viability of this object or restrains the receipt of the effect from its functioning (use). Therefore, in the process of research, it is advisable to focus on this particular part of the object of analysis.
Thus, the functional-cost analysis is an important means of increasing the efficiency of economic activity, strengthening the competitiveness of products, and saving resources.
Economic and mathematical methods of analysis
The use of economic and mathematical methods expands the possibilities of economic analysis by reducing the time of analysis, assessing the influence of a larger number of factors on the results of the economic and financial activities of an organization, increasing the accuracy of assessing their impact, setting and solving multidimensional analysis problems, which is especially important when conducting long-term and strategic analysis, the role of which is currently increasing.
In economic analysis, mathematical models are used that describe the studied phenomena, processes using equations, inequalities, functions and other mathematical means. The economic and mathematical model, adequate to reality, allows us to identify the essential aspects and relationships of the object under study.
The economic and mathematical methods, widely used in economic analysis, include the method of correlation and regression analysis; econometric methods, game theory, queuing theory, mathematical programming methods, inventory optimization method (Wilson's model), etc.
Correlation analysis is based on the use of probabilistic models that describe the behavior of the studied features in a certain general population, from which experimental values are obtained. Correlation is the statistical relationship of two or more random greats. In this case, a change in the values of one or more of these quantities is accompanied by a systematic change in the values of another or other quantities. The linear correlation coefficient (Pearson correlation coefficient) serves as a mathematical measure of the correlation of two random variables.
This method of analysis makes it possible, based on the use of a sufficiently large array of economic information, to identify and quantify the links between economic phenomena, to assess the tightness of these links and, on this basis, to identify the main and secondary factors that caused this or that economic phenomenon, process.
In the process of correlation analysis, the following tasks are solved:
- establishing the form and direction (positive or negative) of the relationship between varying signs (linear, nonlinear);
- measuring the tightness of communication and checking the degree of significance of the obtained correlation coefficients.
Correlation analysis is most often used to establish relationships between economic indicators that are not in functional but in stochastic dependence, i.e. when a change in one economic indicator does not cause a definite and inevitable change in another.
Correlation analysis makes it possible to identify trends in changes in economic phenomena, to build a mathematical model of the regularities of changes in the main indicator (function) due to changes in factors (arguments). This pattern is called regression, and the analysis of its properties (the search for functional dependencies y (x), the graphs of which are the central lines of the correlation data field) is called regression analysis of the correlation.
Regression analysis is a statistical method of investigating the effect of one or more independent variables on a dependent variable. The independent variables are otherwise called regressors or predictors, and the dependent variables are criterion variables.
The objectives of the regression analysis:
- determination of the degree of determinism of variation of the criterion (dependent) variable by predictors (independent variables);
- predicting the value of the dependent variable using the independent (independent);
- determining the contribution of individual independent variables to the variation of the dependent variable.
The correlation analysis scheme includes several stages:
- collection of information, its arrangement in a certain sequence (as it increases, decreases and other signs), grouping. Qualitative analysis of indicators, the nature of the relationship between which is being studied;
- logical analysis of empirical data on the change in the effective indicator and the values of the factor influencing it, which makes it possible to make assumptions about the presence and direction of the relationship between the feature and the factor;
- graphical analysis: data is arranged as points on a coordinate plane. The coordinates of the points are determined by the corresponding values of the pairs of variables (x, y). The collection of points obtained is called the correlation field. By connecting the points sequentially on the graph, a broken line is drawn, which is an empirical regression line. By its appearance, one can judge the form of the relationship between economic phenomena and suggest the type of theoretical regression line;
- the choice of the equation of communication;
- checking the correspondence of the assumed function to the actual data by calculating the correlation coefficient, residual variance, constructing a confidence interval, etc.
In the event that the regression model is stable over time, it can be used to conduct prospective analysis and solve the problems of predicting changes in the effective indicator.
Cluster analysis is used in the study of multivariate statistical populations. Its essence lies in dividing the set of objects and features under study into homogeneous groups or clusters. Cluster analysis allows you to group research objects not by one parameter, but by several criteria. It allows you to consider a fairly large amount of information, to compress the arrays of socio-economic information, to make them compact and visual. An important issue when using this method is the choice of criteria for the formation of groups of objects, since in this case the individual features of individual objects can be lost due to their replacement with characteristics of the generalized values of the cluster parameter.
In the process of cluster analysis, it is necessary, based on the data contained in the set X, to divide into a set of objects G into m clusters (subsets) Qm so that each object G belongs to only one subset of the partition and so that objects belonging to the same cluster are similar, while objects belonging to different clusters were dissimilar.
Game theory Is a theory of mathematical models for making optimal decisions in conditions of uncertainty or conflict of several parties with different interests. Game theory allows you to explore conflict situations and, on the basis of this, develop recommendations for the most rational course of action for each of the participants in the course of a conflict situation. Formalizing conflict situations mathematically, they can be represented as a game of two, three or more players, each of whom pursues the goal of maximizing his own benefit, his own gain at the expense of the other. Game theory solutions are useful for prospective analysis of possible actions in the face of possible opposition from competitors or uncertainty in the external environment.
A game scheme can be given to many situations in the economy. Here, the gain can be the efficiency of using scarce resources, production assets, the amount of profit, cost, etc. Game theory can also be used to select the optimal solution, for example, when creating stocks of raw materials, materials, semi-finished products. In this case, two tendencies are opposed: an increase in stocks, including insurance ones, which guarantee the uninterrupted operation of production, and a decrease in stocks, which ensure minimization of storage costs.
The methods and recommendations of game theory are developed in relation to such specific conflict situations, which have the property of multiple repetition. If the conflict situation is realized once or a limited number of times, then the recommendations of the game theory lose their meaning.
To solve problems, algebraic methods are used based on a system of linear equations of inequalities, iterative methods, as well as reducing the problem to a system of differential equations.
To analyze a conflict situation according to its mathematical model, the situation must be simplified, taking into account only the most important factors that significantly affect the course of the conflict.
Queuing theory studies systems designed to service a mass flow of random requests (both the moments of the appearance of requests and the time spent on servicing them can be random). It explores, based on probability theory, mathematical methods for quantifying queuing processes. The purpose of the research is a rational choice of the structure of the service system and the service process based on the study of the flows of service requests entering and leaving the system, the waiting time and the length of the queues. The queuing theory uses the methods of probability theory and mathematical statistics. At the same time, time-based observations are often required for customer service. The purpose of the analysis can be to determine the likelihood of refusal to provide certain services or service requests.
A typical example of objects of the queuing theory can serve as automatic telephone exchanges, which randomly receive "requests" from subscribers, and "service" consists in connecting subscribers with other subscribers, maintaining communication during a conversation, etc.
Using the methods of the queuing theory allows you to organize the service that provides a given quality.
In queuing systems (QS), the serviced object is called a requirement. In the general case, a demand is usually understood as a request to satisfy some need, for example, a conversation with a subscriber, an airplane landing, buying a ticket, buying goods in a store, etc.
The facilities serving the requirements are called serving devices or service channels. For example, these include telephone channels, cash registers in store settlement centers, landing strips, ticket tellers, etc.
In the theory of queuing, such cases are considered when the arrival of customers occurs at random intervals, and the duration of customer service is not constant, i.e. is random. For these reasons, one of the main methods of mathematical description of QS is the apparatus of the theory of random processes.
The main task of the queuing theory is to study the mode of operation of the service system and the study of the phenomena arising in the process of service.
So, one of the characteristics of the serving system is the time that a request is in the queue. Obviously, this time can be reduced by increasing the number of servicing devices. However, each additional device requires certain material costs, while the idle time of the service device increases due to the lack of maintenance requirements, which is also a negative phenomenon. Consequently, in the queuing theory, optimization problems arise: how to achieve a certain level of service (maximum reduction of queue or loss of requests) with minimum costs associated with downtime of servicing devices.
Econometric methods are based on the synthesis of three areas of knowledge: economics, mathematics and statistics. The basis of econometrics is an economic model, which is understood as a schematic representation of an economic phenomenon or process using scientific abstraction, reflecting their characteristic features. Using econometric methods, it is necessary to evaluate various values and dependencies used in the construction of simulation models of various processes, for example, when analyzing payment flows, it is advisable to use econometric models of inflationary processes in order to establish the real ratio of advance and final payments.
Econometric models can be used for prospective and strategic analysis of macroeconomic indicators. These are multidimensional time series forecasting models, in which the structure of the model is assessed, i.e. the form of the relationship between the values of the known coordinates of the vector at previous times and their values at the predicted time, and the coefficients included in this relationship.
Econometric methods are an effective tool in the work of a manager dealing with specific problems, designed to analyze statistical data and build econometric models of specific economic and technical-economic phenomena and processes. The most widespread in modern economy is the method of analysis of the economy "input - output". These are matrix (balance) models, built according to a checkerboard scheme and allowing in the most compact form to represent the relationship between costs and production results.
Methods of mathematical programming are the main means of solving problems of optimization of production and economic activities. In essence, these methods are a means of planned calculations. Their value for economic analysis lies in the fact that they make it possible to assess the intensity of planned targets, to determine the limiting groups of equipment, types of raw materials and materials, to obtain estimates of the scarcity of production resources, etc.
There are the following sections of mathematical programming: linear, parametric, nonlinear and dynamic programming. The most developed and widely used branch of mathematical programming is linear programming, the purpose of which is to find the optimum (max, min) of a given linear function in the presence of constraints in the form of linear equations or inequalities. Linear programming is a mathematical technique used to determine the best combination of resources and actions needed to achieve an optimal result.
Linear programming is the most commonly used optimization technique. The tasks of linear programming include:
- rational use of raw materials and materials; optimization of the production program of enterprises;
- optimal location of production;
- drawing up an optimal transportation plan, transport work;
- many others lying in the field of optimal planning.
For a large number of practically interesting problems, the objective function is expressed linearly - through the characteristics of the plan, and the admissible values of the parameters are subject to linear equalities or inequalities. Finding the absolute extremum of the objective function under the given conditions is called linear programming.
The direct problem of linear programming is a mathematical formulation of the problem of drawing up a plan for the use of various methods and factors of production, which allows you to get the maximum amount of a homogeneous product with the available resources.
Dynamic programming is a computational method for solving control problems of a certain structure, when a problem with n variables is presented as a multistep decision-making process. At each step, the extremum of a function of only one variable is determined. In this case, the study goes through three stages:
- building a mathematical model;
- solution of a management problem;
- analysis and generalization of the results obtained.
Mathematical models of inventory management allow you to find the optimal level of stocks of a certain product that minimizes the total costs of purchasing, placing and delivering an order, and storage. The Wilson model is the simplest inventory management model and describes the situation of purchasing products from a supplier, which is characterized by the following assumptions:
- consumption intensity is known and constant;
- the order is delivered from a warehouse that stores a sufficient stock of goods;
- the delivery time of the order is a known and constant value;
- each order is delivered as one batch;
- the cost of the order does not depend on the size of the order;
- the cost of storing the stock is proportional to its size;
- lack of stock (shortage) is unacceptable.
The main task of the formation of commodity stocks in trade is to ensure an uninterrupted process of selling goods, or an adequate supply of raw materials and materials ensures the continuity of the production process.
In general, inventory management includes their analysis, planning and operational movement. These tasks can be solved using the methods and models of the theory of inventory management. The purpose of this theory is to develop methods and models for choosing such control parameters for which the optimum of any criterion is achieved (max profit, min costs, etc.).
The formation of inventory is associated with the expenditure of funds. Their value depends, first of all, on two factors: the frequency of delivery of goods and the size of the stock in the organization. Thus, the total costs of inventory management are made up of the costs of importing goods and the costs of storing goods in the enterprise. Based on this, the main task of rationing commodity stocks is to determine the planned volume of stock of goods at which these total costs would be minimal, i.e. min distribution costs can be taken as an optimality criterion.
The economic and mathematical model of the problem (Wilson's deterministic one-nomenclature model) has the following form:
where F (S) - the total costs of the supply and storage of goods; Q is the planned volume of turnover for the sale of goods; c - costs of storing a unit of goods during the entire planning period; k is the cost of delivery (purchase and delivery) of one consignment of goods; S - delivery size.
If you use other letter designations, then:
where L is the total costs of the supply and storage of goods; V is the planned volume of turnover for the sale of goods; k - costs of storing a unit of goods during the entire planning period; s - costs of delivery (purchase and delivery) of one consignment of goods; Q - delivery size.
The cycles of the stock level change in the Wilson model are graphically presented in Fig. 12.1.
The maximum quantity of products that is in stock is the same as the order size Q.
The graph of the costs of inventory management in the Wilson model is shown in Fig. 12.2.
In practice, deviations of the actual values of the inventory management parameters from the calculated ones are possible. In this case, it is necessary to assess the impact of errors in determining the parameters on the costs of inventory management, i.e. determine such limits of parameter deviations that would not lead to a significant increase in inventory management costs. Therefore, it is required to determine the relative increase in inventory management costs (b) when:
- deviation of the actual delivery size from the optimal one (a);
- the deviation of the calculated delivery costs for one batch of goods (either the costs of storing a unit of goods or demand) from the actual ones (g).
In economic analysis, the Wilson model is used to study the deviations of the actual distribution costs from those planned according to the plan, for a prospective analysis of the costs of production and circulation of products.
Graphic method of economic analysis
Graphs are used to visualize economic and mathematical models. Graphs make it easier to understand economic and mathematical models and the economic (economic) phenomena and processes reflected with their help.
A graph is a visual representation of analytical indicators using geometric lines and shapes (diagrams). Graphs are usually built on the basis of data from statistical tables. Statistical tables are highly informative and to a certain extent illustrative. However, understanding their digital content takes time, thoughtful numbers and serious benchmarking. The graphic representation of even the most complex statistical indicators makes them not only visual, but also intelligible and understandable at first glance. The graph allows you to quickly catch the most important trends and patterns of the studied phenomenon. In contrast to the underlying table, it provides a subject generalizing picture of the state of the phenomenon under study, allows you to almost immediately notice its features contained in numerous quantitative indicators, see trends in its change, identify relationships with other phenomena and processes, and even suggest its possible development in the future.
Graphic models not only allow you to describe the relationship between phenomena, but also to give a quantitative and qualitative description of this relationship. At the same time, the possibility of using graphs is limited by the number of spatial dimensions known to mankind.
An important and rather complicated issue of plotting graphs is the division of the entire set of variables into dependent and independent.
An independent variable (cause) is a variable that causes a change in another - dependent - variable. In turn, a dependent variable is a variable (result) that changes under the influence of a change in some other, independent variable.
Independent variables are typically plotted on the x-axis (horizontal) and dependent variables on the y-axis (vertical). In some cases, for ease of reading the graph, the independent variables can be shown on the Y-axis, and the dependent - on the X-axis (for example, when studying supply and demand curves).
Graphs depicting the relationship of two variables ignore the influence of many other factors on which the result depends, the resulting indicator. Therefore, when depicting the relationship between two variables, the assumption "ceteris paribus" is used.
Like a table, a graph has a number of features or elements, the knowledge of which allows you to correctly construct it manually or by machine.
Any graph is based on:
- geometric signs (points, lines, figures), with the help of which statistical quantities are depicted;
- spatial reference points that determine the placement of geometric symbols on the chart;
- field, i.e. where the geometric signs are located.
Spatial landmarks are set in the form of coordinate grids. Statistical plots typically use a rectangular coordinate system in a 2D or 3D image. In cartograms, the means of spatial orientation are either geographic landmarks (outlines of roads, rivers, seas, forests, settlements), or administrative or state boundaries. Large-scale ones are closely related to spatial landmarks, which give quantitative certainty to graphic images. The scale reference points are determined by the graph scales. In this case, the scale plays the role of a conditional measure for converting quantitative values into graphical ones. In statistical graphs, as a rule, rectilinear scales are used. In this regard, the corresponding units of measurement are plotted on the abscissa and ordinate axes in conventional scales.
Pie and pie charts use curved scales. Both rectangular and curved scales can be uniform and uneven.
The chart field, depending on its goals and objectives, can be blank or shaded. The latter method is often used in the preparation of graphs using computer programs, which makes it possible to more actively select certain graphic images. The size of the field depends on the purpose of the graph. Like a table, a chart should have headings and verbal explanations. The name of the graph most often corresponds to the name of the table on the basis of which it is built. It must contain the names of the scale scales: the name of the units of measurement (in absolute and relative numbers - in units, thousands, coefficients, percentages, etc.) and other necessary explanations. Depending on the goals of the graph, its quantitative base and the geometric symbols used, graphics can be point (a set of points) and linear.
Line and bit plots are the most widely used. Let's consider their use in economic analysis using an example.
Example 12.7
Let there be empirical observation data on the income of families in a region and the share of their expenditures on the purchase of non-food items during the study period (Table 12.9).
First of all, you should comprehend the data in Table. 12.9 and find out whether this dependence makes economic sense. Apparently, it does, since it is logical to assume that families with a higher level of income have the opportunity to spend a greater share of them on the purchase of non-food items. Moreover, this situation is fully described by Engel's law, which states that as income rises, people spend more money on purchasing, first, more nutritious food, and then spend more money on purchasing non-food products.
Table 12.9
Let us graphically depict how the share of families' funds for the purchase of non-food products changes as their incomes grow (Figure 12.3).
In fig. 12.3 it can be seen that the resulting straight line is ascending. This indicates the presence of a direct relationship between the variables under consideration, i.e. these two variables change in the same direction. When there is a positive, or straight line, relationship between two data series, it is always plotted as an ascending line.
The relationship between variables can be not only direct, but also inverse. For example, an inverse relationship exists between the size of a family's income and the share of spending on food purchases. If the family income decreases, then the costs of purchasing foodstuffs relatively increase, and vice versa, if incomes increase, then the share of expenses for these purposes decreases (Table 12.10).
Table 12.10
As you can see from the table. 12.10, the variables under consideration change in opposite directions, i.e. the connection between them is inverse or, in other words, negative.
Let's build on the basis of the data in table. 12.10 graph (Fig. 12.4) illustrating the inverse (negative) relationship.
In fig. 12.4 it can be seen that the resulting straight line is descending. This indicates the presence of a reverse (negative) relationship between the variables under consideration, i.e. these two variables change in the same direction. When there is a negative, or inverse, relationship between two data series, it is always plotted as a downward line.
The position of a line (straight or curved) on the graph can be characterized by the steepness of its slope and the point of intersection of this line with the ordinate axis, or, more precisely, the axis on which the values of the dependent variable are located.
The slope of a straight line between two points is defined as the ratio of its vertical change (increase or decrease) to the horizontal change due to movement between points.
where ΔY is the size of the change in the dependent variable; ΔX is the size of the change in the independent variable.
Determine the slope of the straight line shown in Fig. 12.3. Moving from point B to point C, one can see that the increase (or vertical change characterizing the change) in the share of spending on the purchase of non-food products is + 5% (30 - 25), and the horizontal change characterizing the change in the average monthly size of family income is + RUB 2500 (10000 - 7500). Hence:
Slope = 1% / 500 rubles.
The resulting slope of the line is positive, since the size of the average monthly family income and the share of spending on the purchase of non-food items change in the same direction, i.e. there is a direct, or positive, connection between them. This is also indicated by the + sign.
The slope of the line at +1/500 shows that with an increase in the average monthly family income for every 500 rubles. the share of spending on the purchase of non-food products increases by 1%. Consequently, if the average monthly family income increases by 4,000 rubles, then we can assume an increase in the share of expenses associated with the purchase of non-food products by 8%. It is possible to interpret this slope in another way, proceeding from the fact that the variables with a direct connection change in the same direction: a decrease in the average monthly family income for every 500 rubles. entails a decrease in the share of expenses for the purchase of non-food products by 1%. This can be seen when moving from point D to point D (Fig. 12.3). The slope of the line is:
5/-2500 = +1/500.
Consider the slope of a downward straight line. For this purpose, we use Fig. 12.4. Let us single out a fragment on it that shows the relationship between the change in the average monthly family income and the share of expenses for the purchase of food. For example, moving but straight from point D to point B, one can see that the decrease or vertical change characterizing the change in the share of expenses for the purchase of food products is -5% (65 - 70), and the horizontal change characterizing the change in the average monthly size of family income , is +2500 rubles. (12500 - 10000). Hence:
Slope = -5% / +2500 RUB = -1/500.
The resulting slope of the line is negative, since the size of the average monthly family income and the share of expenses for purchasing food products change in the opposite direction, i.e. there is an inverse, or negative, relationship between them. This is also indicated by the sign
The slope of the line at -1/500 shows that with a decrease in the average monthly family income for every 500 rubles. the share of expenses for the purchase of food products increases by 1%. Consequently, if the average monthly family income decreases, for example, by 1,500 rubles, then we can assume an increase in the share of expenses associated with the purchase of food products by 3%. Increase in family income for every 500 rubles. entails a decrease in the share of expenses for the purchase of food products by 1%.
Given that in some cases the dependent variables are shown on the abscissa, for a correct economic interpretation of the position of a straight line on the graph, the previously given definition of the slope of a straight line should be clarified: the slope of a straight line is calculated as the ratio of the change in the dependent variable on the graph to the change in the independent variable due to the movement between points on a straight line reflecting their relationship.
Thus, the slope of the line shows us how the dependent variable responds to a specific change in the independent variable.
The slope of the line, in the denominator of which is a one value of the independent variable, shows the degree of response of the dependent variable when the independent variable changes by one unit. For example, a line slope of 1/500 can be drawn (dividing the numerator and denominator by 500) as follows: 0.002 / 1 or 0.002. Consequently, when the average monthly income changes by 1 rub. the share of expenses for the purchase of non-food products will change in the same direction by 0.002%.
Consider the point of intersection of a straight line with the ordinate axis. This point shows the value of the dependent variable in the absence of any influence of the independent variable, since on the y-axis, the value of the independent variable is zero.
In fig. 12.3 this point is at the 10% level (to see this, you need to extend the line to the intersection with the y-axis). This value means that if the family's income in the current month is equal to zero for some reason, then it still directs 10% of its expenses to the purchase of non-food items. It should be emphasized that Fig. 12.3 (as well as Fig. 12.4) shows the dependence of the share of family expenses for the purchase of non-food (and, accordingly, food) goods on the amount of income received by the family in the current month. The possibility of purchasing non-food products is due, for example, to the use of funds received in debt (credit), previously accumulated funds (savings). Neither loans nor savings can be attributed to the income of the current month.
Since at the point of intersection of a straight line (or curve) with the ordinate axis, the influence of the studied variable is zero, this point shows the cumulative influence of all other factors on the studied dependent variable.
When moving in a straight line but moving away from the point of its intersection with the ordinate axis, it can be seen that the influence of these factors on the dependent variable decreases absolutely or relatively with a simultaneous increase in the influence of the studied independent variable. An absolute decrease is typical for descending straight lines. Moreover, moving along a descending straight line from top to bottom, we reach the point of its intersection with the abscissa axis.
At this point, as can be seen from the graph (Fig. 12.5), the value of the dependent variable is completely determined by the independent variable and the influence of other factors is equal to zero.
In fig. 12.5 shows the dependence of the number of customers purchasing goods in the store on the time of service of one customer.
Fig. 12.5 it can be seen that at point A the number of buyers depends only on other factors in their totality, since the service time is zero. These factors include the number of sellers, service method, sales area, etc. As we move from point A to point B, it can be seen that the role of these factors decreases, while the role of the service time factor increases, since the number of buyers is constantly decreasing. At point B, which lies at the intersection of a straight line with the abscissa axis, the number of buyers is completely determined by the service time, and the influence of all other factors is zero. Fig. 12.5 it can be seen that if the duration of the service is 120 minutes, customers completely refuse to make a purchase in the store, despite all the other motives of visiting this store that are attractive to them.
Combining knowledge about the economic interpretation of the slope of a straight line and the point of intersection of a straight line with the Y axis, we can describe Fig. 12.3 in the form of a mathematical equation, or, in other words, write an economic and mathematical model of the dependence of the share of spending on the purchase of non-food items on the average monthly family income.
In general terms, the equation of the straight line looks like this:
where y is the dependent variable; a - the point of intersection of a straight line with the Y axis; b is the slope of the line; x is the independent variable.
In the case considered in Fig. 12.3 Example y is the percentage of spending on non-food items. Parameter a is 10%, parameter b is +1/500, x is the average monthly family income. Let's substitute the data from Fig. 12.3 into the equation of the straight line and get:
y = 10 + 0.002x
From the obtained economic and mathematical model (equation), it can be seen that at zero income, the share of expenses for the purchase of non-food products will be 10% and then, as family income rises, this share will increase.
An economic and mathematical model of the dependence of the share of expenses for the purchase of food products on the average monthly family income can be written using Fig. 12.4. This model will look like this:
y = 90 - 0.002x.
This model shows that if the average monthly income is zero, the share of household expenditures on the purchase of food products will be 90%, and then, as family income rises, this share will decrease in a certain proportion.
To illustrate tabular information in economic analysis, histograms, diagrams and cartograms are also used.
bar graph Is a two-dimensional graph of the distribution of indicators. They are used to show changes in data over a period of time or to illustrate comparisons of objects. The histogram is used to display interval series. To construct a histogram based on the data of the variation series, the values of the argument are plotted on the abscissa axis at equal intervals, and the values of frequencies or relative frequencies are plotted on the ordinate axis. Next, rectangles, pyramids, cylinders are built, the bases of which are segments of the abscissa axis, the lengths of which are equal to the lengths of the intervals, and the heights are segments, the lengths of which are proportional to the frequencies or relative frequencies of the corresponding intervals.
Histograms can be flat, volumetric, cylindrical, conical, pyramidal, etc.
Diagram Is a graphical representation of data that allows you to quickly evaluate the relationship of several quantities. It is a geometric symbolic image of information using various visualization techniques. Sometimes a 3D visualization is used to design charts, projected onto a plane, which gives the diagram its distinctive features or allows you to have a general idea of the area in which it is applied. For example, a financial chart associated with monetary amounts may represent the number of bills in a stack or coins in a stack; a diagram comparing the number of rolling stock - different lengths of trains depicted, etc. Due to their clarity and ease of use, charts are often used in analytical work. Charts can be bar, bar, square, pie, surface, bubble, petal, and more.
Cartograms- these are means of visual representation of factual data, which characterize individual districts, cities, regions and subjects of the federation. An example is a cartogram of sales intensity, where its level in each region has its own color or shading. Cartograms are often combined with figured diagrams, when certain indicators in a particular territory are indicated by figures: the sale of food products, the sale of perfumery products, etc.
Graphs that use drawings of individual objects (goods) or silhouettes (manufacturing, commercial enterprises) to indicate the corresponding statistical picture are called figured.
Computer graphics makes it possible to build more complex and visual graphs and diagrams, allowing in the most compressed form to clearly and intelligibly show the real state of affairs, which is more difficult to understand when studying tables or individual statistical indicators.
Questions and tasks for self-control
- On what grounds are the methods of economic analysis classified?
- List the classic methods of economic analysis.
- What are the informal methods of economic analysis
- In what case is the expert diagnostic method used?
- List the main economic and mathematical methods used in economic analysis.
- How is the method of absolute values used in the analysis?
- How is the method of relative values used in the analysis?
- For what purpose are averages used in the analysis?
- Describe the comparison method in economic analysis.
- With what indicators are the actual results of the enterprise being compared?
- What is the grouping method as a way to analyze economic activity?
- What is the essence of the index analysis method?
- How to calculate the turnover (revenue) of the organization in comparable prices?
- What is the essence of elimination methods?
- What is the essence of the difference method?
- What is the essence of the chain substitution method?
- What is the essence of the balance sheet method of economic analysis?
- What is meant by the independent variable?
- Expand the concept of "functional cost analysis (FSA)", give examples.
- What are the goals and objectives of the FSA?
- Expand the value of marginal analysis to justify management decisions.
- What is the essence of margin analysis?
- What methods can be used to determine the value of conditionally fixed and variable costs?
- Describe the essence of the analytical way of dividing costs into fixed and variable.
Analysis is a way of cognizing objects and phenomena of the environment, based on dividing the whole into its component parts and studying them in all the variety of connections and dependencies.
The analysis can be viewed in two aspects:
theoretical;
and specifically economic.
Theoretical, or political and economic, analysis is mainly a qualitative logical analysis based on a high degree of abstraction, i.e., an analysis of the operation of economic laws, categories, abstract concepts.
Specific economic analysis is primarily a quantitative analysis expressed in specific calculations and formulas.
Theoretical and specific analysis are always interconnected. Any formula or model must be not only formally mathematically correct, but also theoretically substantiated on the merits of the phenomenon or indicator under consideration.
In addition, macroeconomic analysis and microeconomic analysis are distinguished.
Macroeconomic analysis studies economic phenomena and processes at the level of the world and national economy.
Microeconomic analysis studies economic phenomena and processes at the level of individual business entities (enterprises or organizations).
Economic analysis has developed in economic research as an independent science with its own subject and research method.
Economic analysis as a science is a system of special knowledge about the methods and techniques of research used to process and analyze economic information about the activities of enterprises.
Economic analysis as a practice is a type of management activity that precedes the adoption of management decisions and comes down to justifying these decisions on the basis of available information.
Economic analysis and its role in enterprise management
Currently, economic analysis occupies an important place among the economic sciences. It is considered as one of the production management functions. It is known that the management system consists of the following interrelated functions: planning, accounting, analysis and management decision making
The initial element of the management system is planning, which determines the direction and content of an economic entity's activities. An important element of planning is to determine the ways to achieve the set goal - to achieve the best financial results.
To manage production, you need to have complete and truthful information about the progress of the production process, about the progress of plans. Therefore, one of the functions of production management is accounting. It is practically impossible to make optimal management decisions without reliable and complete information. Accounting provides a constant systematization and generalization of data necessary to manage production and monitor the progress of implementation of business plans.
To optimize management, it is necessary to have a clear understanding of the trends and nature of changes in the economy of an economic entity. Comprehension, understanding of information is possible only on the basis of economic analysis. During the analysis, the raw primary information is verified. Compliance with established forms, correctness of arithmetic calculations, reducibility and comparability of indicators are determined. Then the information is processed: there is a general acquaintance with the documents, their content; deviations are determined and compared; the influence of factors on the analyzed object is determined, reserves and ways of their use are identified. Reveal flaws, mistakes. The analysis results are systematized and summarized. Based on the analysis results, management decisions are made.
It follows that economic analysis justifies management decisions, ensures objectivity and efficiency of production management.
Thus, economic analysis is an objectively necessary element of production management and is a stage of management activities. With the help of economic analysis, the essence of economic processes is learned, the economic situation is assessed, production reserves are identified and scientifically based decisions are prepared for planning and management.