The latest forecast for oil from Stepan Demura. Economic collapse in the Russian Federation: "the question is not what will happen, but when it will happen"

• Category:.

Popular economist, trader and financial analyst Stepan Demura made another sad prognosis about the future of the Russian economy. It is noteworthy that the seminar did not pay much attention to a new round of anti-Russian sanctions, which will undoubtedly tighten the stranglehold around the neck of the already dying Russian economy even more. The reasons for the impending economic collapse are not only in foreign sanctions and mediocre domestic governance, but also in the global economic crisis, the harbingers of which are already visible.

What awaits the Russian economy

Fortunately, there is nothing special to bankrupt in Russia, since 90% of companies are registered in offshore areas and everything has already been stolen before us, '' Stepen Gennadievich said.

Oil price

Now the season of refineries is starting in the United States, which is predicted to reduce daily oil consumption by 1.5-2 million barrels. Warehouses will begin to be stocked, which will naturally have a negative impact on stock quotes.

However, there are two factors that can contribute to the rise in oil prices:

1. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East
2. Reduced production of shale energy in the United States

Nevertheless, there is no reason to hope for an increase in oil prices, which is always sad for the raw materials economy of Russia.

The banking system of Russia is a corpse

“The banking system of Russia is a dead body, the 70 largest banks have 26-28% of bad assets. The question here is not what will happen, but when it will happen, "Stepan Gennadievich said.

What will happen to the banking system next? The Central Bank has no currency, since there is a maximum of 50-60 billion free dollars and the exchange rate can only be kept at an increased rate, and 4 out of 5 dollars of domestic demand are provided by imports.

It follows from this that it is highly discouraged to keep dollars in large state banks. According to Demura, there are essentially no private banks in Russia other than Citibank and Raiffeisen. “Alpha is a corpse. And already in 2014, the bank's management informed you that depositors who want to get their deposits back do not need them. "

According to Stepan Demura, the best banks in Russia for storing assets are glass and aluminum.

If you want to save money, then the safest way is to buy US or German bonds and put the securities in a safe deposit box, - said Stepan Gennadievich. Unfortunately, it is difficult for an ordinary person to invest money in such bonds, since they are sold only in large chunks, and all other ways to purchase them increase the risk of investment, because the money will lie in the broker's account.

Ruble's exchange rate

The ruble began to correct against the dollar, and so far we have a short break for a couple of months. For those who want to make money on currency manipulations, now is the time to wait for a suitable rate to enter the dollar. Presumably, it can strengthen up to 62 and towards the end of winter we will fall. “My forecasts are sometimes a quarter late,” Demura said in a joking manner.

Stepan Gennadievich advised to forget about the de-dollarization of the economy, which is often talked about on TV lately. “It's not for you to crush tomatoes. The Central Bank is part of a harsher system and no country today is capable of abandoning the dollar. ”

According to Demura's forecast, the exchange rate against the euro will not go below 67.5.

So far, no tough measures by the state to regulate exchange rates are planned. Back in 2014, Naibiullina voiced the following formula:

All liquid rubles are taken and divided by all liquid dollars within the country, which results in a “liquid dollar rate”. Now this indicator is in the region of 95, which acts as a reference point. As long as the ruble does not fall below this mark, the Central Bank will not begin to harshly interfere in the activities of banks.

Demura about pensions in Russia

Pension payments are a racket from the state. As an illustrative example, Stepan Gennadievich calculated a pension for a 20-year-old man with a salary of 100 thousand rubles. As a result, the pension will be 22 thousand rubles, taking into account inflation of 5%, which in reality should be about 20%. Ultimately, the purchasing power of the pension of a 20-year-old man with a salary of 100,000 rubles at the time of retirement will be equivalent to today's 2,000 rubles.

The modern economy is built on hype

Some countries and companies still have not fully recovered from the consequences of 2008, and the new crisis is expected to be much more destructive.

The main reason for this is that the hype has become the engine of the modern economy, which has generated even larger multipliers and financial bubbles.

The most expensive company in the world, Amazon, is a dummy, Stepan Demura said. The company's profit is practically zero, and the company has a lot of loans, which are backed by shares that are not backed by anything other than hype. Amazon is a dummy, which has nothing that could save it at the time of the fall in quotations in the stock markets.

Tesla's prospects are no better. Now large manufacturers (Volkswagen concern and others) are gradually entering the electric vehicle market. Despite the fact that the brainchild of Elon Musk is very much loved on Wall Street, Tesla will not be able to compete in price and quality with auto giants and the company's shares will go down.

Of the big hypo-fire companies, Apple looks the best. The company has amassed a large cushion of cache (about $ 200 billion) and raised a generation of followers who are willing to buy "buggy" smartphones at exorbitant prices just for the sake of a bitten apple.

The macroeconomic landscape is even more dire now than it was in 2008. The bubble that was then is now even larger and it will not collapse quickly and painlessly. This time it was also actively cheated by China, whose banking system was practically "dead", and the return on capital fell sharply.

Before the 2008 crisis, the world's dollar liquidity was $ 3.7 trillion, and now it is about 20. There is now a + 16 trillion dollar bubble in the world compared to the previous crisis. Now there is a controlled contraction of liquidity, which sooner or later will become uncontrollable. Despite the fact that financial bubbles are created without Russia's participation, the impending crisis will affect everyone, and the state of the Russian raw materials economy is already deplorable.

The policy of Russia's self-isolation from the West will finish it off in a year or two, according to the well-known analyst Stepan Demura. In his opinion, the events that are now taking place in the Russian economy are already leading to severe systemic violations. And the West is busy, among other things, "zeroing" Putin's friends. Already at the beginning of 2019, the Russian economy will obviously start to collapse.

At the seminar, which took place on October 23 in City-Class, the expert invited those present to assess the current situation, based on the latest news, which actually means the beginning of a large process of “zeroing” the so-called. "families". Abramovich, Deripaska, Potanin, Fridman, Vekselberg, Kerimov, Shamalov - the assets of the richest people in Russia today not only become objects of close scrutiny by Western financial control services, they are literally under threat of seizure. We are talking about deposits, real estate and other property owned by Russian oligarchs who prefer to keep their capital outside the Russian Federation.

One of the reasons why the Americans have taken seriously the members of the "family" is that the West has begun to strongly distance itself from businessmen and other rich people with a Russian residence permit, since they "cannot clean up after themselves." Stepan Demura urged to pay attention to a whole series of events that clearly indicate the growing problems of the oligarchs: “Deripaska's money was transferred to a trust of one of the American banks, actually taking control of several sectors of the Russian economy. In June, the accounts of the Russian billionaire Vekselberg were blocked in Switzerland, the accounts of both Vekselberg and Deripaska were frozen in Cyprus, moreover, the latter also lost his expensive real estate in New York, ”writes Russian Monitor.

Earlier, Demura had already stated that the Russian oligarchs would be forced to surrender Putin and find more accommodating politicians, otherwise the Russian business would be beaten up inside Russia. And the policy of de-dollarization only spurs on the quick death of the current economic model. Demura clarified the situation in detail about the ban on the dollar - this cannot be done, since it will break the back of the entire financial system of the Russian Federation.

According to the analyst, the source of such loud statements is traditionally a zombie, whose task is to frighten the population and at the same time distract attention from real problems. At the same time, the expert fully admits that the situation will go a little further: “Our Duma is capable of adopting a law that contradicts not only itself, but also common sense. But will the deputies take into account the fact that foreign currency deposits and any other money stored in banks should be cashed at the request of the holders? In addition, the ruble is secured by the assets of the Central Bank, which, as you know, are kept exclusively in foreign currency. This suggests that de-dollarization will actually mean gross interference in the operation of the huge financial system, of which, by the way, our Central Bank is a part ”.

Stepan Demura urges not to understand the words of officials literally: “It is one thing to hear about the“ genocide ”of tomatoes and sanctioned cheese, and another thing about breaking the whole system. Who dares to challenge the established system of financial rights and relationships? In addition, Russia will not be able to prohibit the circulation and circulation of the dollar within the country, since the law on the Central Bank will be immediately violated, which will surely follow the reaction of the civilized world. In response to the audience's objections that the Russian authorities already have experience of disregarding international law in relation to the situation with Crimea and Donbass, the analyst not only reminded of the possibility of very quick retaliation from the West, but also advised economists to assess the risks of the Russian economy, which will have to cope with disconnection from the international settlement system: “The markets are now somewhat calm: the ruble was saved, and oil at high levels - all this leads to a false sense of calm and self-confidence. But our economy has long been teetering on the edge of an abyss, and once outside the global system, its hours will be numbered. ”

The policy of Russia's self-isolation from the West will finish it off in a year or two, according to the well-known analyst Stepan Demura. In his opinion, the events that are now taking place in the Russian economy are already leading to severe systemic violations. And the West is busy, among other things, "zeroing" Putin's friends. Already at the beginning of 2019, the Russian economy will obviously start to collapse.

At the seminar, which took place on October 23 in City-Class, the expert invited those present to assess the current situation, based on the latest news, which actually means the beginning of a large process of “zeroing” the so-called. "families". Abramovich, Deripaska, Potanin, Fridman, Vekselberg, Kerimov, Shamalov - the assets of the richest people in Russia today not only become objects of close scrutiny by Western financial control services, they are literally under threat of seizure. We are talking about deposits, real estate and other property owned by Russian oligarchs who prefer to keep their capital outside the Russian Federation.

One of the reasons why the Americans have taken seriously the members of the "family" is that the West has begun to strongly distance itself from businessmen and other rich people with a Russian residence permit, since they "cannot clean up after themselves." Stepan Demura urged to pay attention to a whole series of events that clearly indicate the growing problems of the oligarchs: “Deripaska's money was transferred to a trust of one of the American banks, actually taking control of several sectors of the Russian economy. In June, the accounts of the Russian billionaire Vekselberg were blocked in Switzerland, the accounts of both Vekselberg and Deripaska were frozen in Cyprus, moreover, the latter also lost his expensive real estate in New York, ”writes Russian Monitor.

Earlier, Demura had already stated that the Russian oligarchs would be forced to surrender Putin and find more accommodating politicians, otherwise the Russian business would be beaten up inside Russia. And the policy of de-dollarization only spurs on the quick death of the current economic model. Demura clarified the situation in detail about the ban on the dollar - this cannot be done, since it will break the back of the entire financial system of the Russian Federation.

According to the analyst, the source of such loud statements is traditionally a zombie, whose task is to frighten the population and at the same time distract attention from real problems. At the same time, the expert fully admits that the situation will go a little further: “Our Duma is capable of adopting a law that contradicts not only itself, but also common sense. But will the deputies take into account the fact that foreign currency deposits and any other money stored in banks should be cashed at the request of the holders? In addition, the ruble is secured by the assets of the Central Bank, which, as you know, are kept exclusively in foreign currency. This suggests that de-dollarization will actually mean gross interference in the operation of the huge financial system, of which, by the way, our Central Bank is a part ”.

Stepan Demura urges not to understand the words of officials literally: “It is one thing to hear about the“ genocide ”of tomatoes and sanctioned cheese, and another thing about breaking the whole system. Who dares to challenge the established system of financial rights and relationships? In addition, Russia will not be able to prohibit the circulation and circulation of the dollar within the country, since the law on the Central Bank will be immediately violated, which will surely follow the reaction of the civilized world. In response to the audience's objections that the Russian authorities already have experience of disregarding international law in relation to the situation with Crimea and Donbass, the analyst not only reminded of the possibility of very quick retaliation from the West, but also advised economists to assess the risks of the Russian economy, which will have to cope with disconnection from the international settlement system: “The markets are now somewhat calm: the ruble was saved, and oil at high levels - all this leads to a false sense of calm and self-confidence. But our economy has long been teetering on the edge of an abyss, and once outside the global system, its hours will be numbered. ”

The policy of Russia's self-isolation from the West will finish it off in a year or two, according to the well-known analyst Stepan Demura. In his opinion, the events that are now taking place in the Russian economy are already leading to severe systemic violations. And the West is busy, among other things, "zeroing" Putin's friends. Already at the beginning of 2019, the Russian economy will obviously start to collapse.

At the seminar, the expert invited those present to evaluate the current situation, based on the latest news, which actually means the beginning of a large process of “zeroing” the so-called. "families". Abramovich, Deripaska, Potanin, Fridman, Vekselberg, Kerimov, Shamalov - the assets of the richest people in Russia today not only become objects of close scrutiny by Western financial control services, they are literally under threat of seizure. We are talking about deposits, real estate and other property owned by Russian oligarchs who prefer to keep their capital outside the Russian Federation.

One of the reasons why the Americans have taken seriously the members of the "family" is that the West has begun to strongly distance itself from businessmen and other rich people with a Russian residence permit, since they "cannot clean up after themselves." Stepan Demura urged to pay attention to a whole series of events that clearly indicate the growing problems of the oligarchs: “Deripaska's money was transferred to a trust of one of the American banks, actually taking control of several sectors of the Russian economy. In June, the accounts of the Russian billionaire Vekselberg were blocked in Switzerland, the accounts of both Vekselberg and Deripaska were frozen in Cyprus, and the latter also lost his expensive real estate in New York. "

Earlier, Demura had already stated that the Russian oligarchs would be forced to surrender Putin and find more accommodating politicians, otherwise the Russian business would be beaten up inside Russia. And the policy of de-dollarization only spurs on the quick death of the current economic model. Demura clarified the situation in detail about the ban on the dollar - this cannot be done, since it will break the backbone of the entire financial system of the Russian Federation.

According to the analyst, the source of such loud statements is traditionally a zombie, whose task is to frighten the population and at the same time distract attention from real problems. At the same time, the expert fully admits that the situation will go a little further: “Our Duma is capable of adopting a law that contradicts not only itself, but also common sense. But will the deputies take into account the fact that foreign currency deposits and any other money stored in banks should be cashed at the request of the holders? In addition, the ruble is secured by the assets of the Central Bank, which, as you know, are kept exclusively in foreign currency. This suggests that de-dollarization will actually mean gross interference in the operation of the huge financial system, of which, by the way, our Central Bank is a part ”.

Stepan Demura urges not to understand the words of officials literally: “It is one thing to hear about the“ genocide ”of tomatoes and sanctioned cheese, and another thing about breaking the whole system. Who dares to challenge the established system of financial rights and relationships? In addition, Russia will not be able to prohibit the circulation and circulation of the dollar within the country, since the law on the Central Bank will be immediately violated, which will surely follow the reaction of the civilized world. In response to the audience's objections that the Russian authorities already have experience of disregarding international law in relation to the situation with Crimea and Donbass, the analyst not only reminded of the possibility of very quick retaliation from the West, but also advised economists to assess the risks of the Russian economy, which will have to cope with disconnection from the international settlement system: “The markets are now somewhat calm: the ruble was saved, and oil at high levels - all this leads to a false sense of calm and self-confidence. But our economy has long been teetering on the edge of an abyss, and once outside the global system, its hours will be numbered. ”

In the meantime, clear problems of the banking sector are visible due to sanctions and gradually strategic industries. for example, metallurgy, and the collapse of the fuel complex is on the way, according to the analyst. For ordinary people, 2019 will be a very difficult year and will resemble the end of the 80s, the beginning of the 90s in the USSR.

The economic situation is such that predicting a catastrophe has become commonplace. © FreeImages.com Content License

It did not come true and could hardly come true, but a vague expectation of something like that remained. The predictions of the hundred-ruble dollar in 2018 literally went like an avalanche, especially in early autumn, when the ruble staggered. And now we are already seeing the first forecasts for 2019.

Judging by the breadth of citation of fresh Andrey Klepach, the chief economist of VEB, our public yearned for a new portion of gloomy predictions. Although Klepach's current position, and his previous post (he was Deputy Minister of Economic Development for many years), and his temperament is not conducive to radicalism, and his forecast is formulated much more accurately than many others: “The course will remain at the current level until the end of the year, maybe even strengthen. But next year, even outside the context of sanctions, the ruble will decline. "

The prudent expert did not give a specific figure, but his reflections on a serious weakening of the ruble, on the expectation of a new portfolio of sanctions and the acceleration of capital outflow somehow by themselves bring everything to the same 100-ruble dollar, beloved by the public. True, now in 2019.

We will not deny that the weakening of the Russian currency by one and a half times against the current level can still occur. In the end, the ruble depreciates, albeit much more slowly than fortune-tellers usually predict, and someday the dollar will cross the 100-ruble line. The only question is how likely this is already in 2019.

First of all, the ruble price depends on oil prices, as well as on the ability of our country to trade it freely. The second of these factors is novelty. Earlier, Western sanctions hit less important areas. Now there is no need to renounce anything, and if these sanctions will really complicate the sale of Russian oil, then a hundred ruble dollar is quite possible. True, most experts assess the likelihood of imposing sanctions of this magnitude as rather small.

The next factor is the oil price itself. If oil falls from the current $ 75 per barrel to at least $ 40 (and even more so to $ 30) and fixes itself at this level for a long time, the ruble will greatly lose weight, although, in my opinion, it will not drop to a hundred per dollar.

Is this possible in 2019? It is possible, but again it does not seem to be the most important scenario.

Finally, there is capital outflow. The greater the panic and the more efficiently the sanctions block Russian structures from borrowing and re-borrowing money in the West, the more it is. If the sanctions hit the target, it is difficult to re-lease, and existing foreign debts have to be paid off without new ones being compensated. Which, in fact, is already happening. The external debt of the Russian Federation has decreased by $ 51 billion since the beginning of the year and now stands at $ 467 billion. And capital outflow in the first three quarters amounted to $ 32 billion against $ 14 billion in the same period last year. It is believed that in general for 2018 the export of capital will reach $ 60 billion (in 2017 - $ 25 billion).

Are these numbers critical? Not yet. The positive balance of Russian foreign trade in goods (foreign trade in services is in short supply, but changes little from year to year and therefore may not be taken into account now) reached $ 119 billion in the first eight months of 2018, which is $ 49 billion more than the balance for the same months of 2017. This profit, caused by the rise in oil prices, so far more than offset the increased losses due to capital outflow.

In addition, Russia's international reserves have been growing this year ($ 461 billion against $ 433 billion at the beginning of the year), and after a long hiatus, they practically equaled the declining volume of external debt ($ 467 billion). That is, formally speaking, the reserves are now almost enough to pay off all external debts accumulated by our super corporations at once. In practice, of course, this is never done, but in especially difficult moments the most trusted and close to the throne tycoons were saved in this way, at the public expense, more than once.

These balance sheets are depicted here to show how large the margin of safety for Russian finances is and how severe storms are required for the ruble to truly collapse.

In addition to the already mentioned radical reduction in oil prices, the devastating effect would have been not a moderate, as it is now, but an extremely steep increase in capital outflow. This outflow could be associated with the oil panic and the massive repayment of external debts caused by the ban on obtaining loans.

In 2008, when the oil market collapsed, capital outflow amounted to $ 131 billion, and in 2014 it reached a historic record of $ 152 billion.After all, at the same time, oil became cheaper and debts had to be urgently repaid due to sanctions bans on lending ( in just the second half of 2014, Russian external debt fell from $ 733 billion to $ 600 billion).

Therefore, it was in 2008 and 2014 that the two largest ruble devaluations in the 21st century took place.

Only such storms, and, moreover, not separately, but together, could collapse the exchange rate to a hundred, if not more, rubles per dollar next year. But such a one-time concatenation of all problems does not seem close yet. Perhaps Andrey Klepach knows more than us. Or maybe just overtaking events.

Sergey Shelin