Real dollar exchange rate forecast for April. Experts: geopolitics puts pressure on the ruble
What influences the behavior of foreign currency in Russia
Before proceeding directly to the issue of the exchange rate of the dollar from April 1, it is necessary to determine the factors that determine it. Since it is from them, both separately and in aggregate, that where the dollar will take its direction depends.
The movement of foreign currency is affected by:
- policy of the Central Bank;
- oil prices;
- economic indicators of the country;
- sanctions imposed on Russia.
Let's consider the influence of each factor on foreign currency separately.
Central Bank Policy
The main currency regulator influences the position of the ruble through:
- discount rate - an impetus for a significant economic growth give a reduction in the rate;
- foreign exchange interventions, in which the Ministry of Finance tries to artificially cause the growth of the currency by buying it on the Moscow Exchange.
Oil price
No changes in oil prices are expected in 2018. Moreover, the dependence of the behavior of foreign currency on the price of oil is gradually fading away. So, if in June 2017, at a price of $44 per barrel, the latter was equal to 57 rubles. That in December, with the same currency position, oil was already worth $67 per barrel. Such are latest news.
Of course, one cannot discount the possibility of a weakening of the Russian ruble due to falling oil prices. But their growth does not cause a response from the ruble.
Economic indicators of the country
Experts' forecasts do not see any global changes in the country's economy for 2018. Yes, the inflation rate is falling, but this is more related to the decline purchasing power than with the behavior of foreign exchange. There are no more prerequisites for strengthening the position of the ruble.
Sanctions imposed on Russia
Undoubtedly, the ruble would significantly strengthen its position if global sanctions were lifted. Analysts' forecast is not encouraging: the outflow of foreign currency from Russian Federation will continue. And everything will start with a possible ban on the purchase of Russian Eurobonds by investors from foreign countries.
Russian presidential elections in March 2018
It is impossible not to take into account the forthcoming elections of the President of Russia. If the ruble is in front of them, it is possible that it will strengthen its positions, then in the future it will begin a gradual fall. Of course, in the absence of deterrent factors.
If the end of the first quarter of 2018 promises to be favorable for Russian currency. The presidential elections and the stable situation on the oil market are doing their job. That is already in April will begin a gradual increase in the dollar. The table shows the forecast value of foreign currency for the spring of 2018.
Is it worth investing in dollars?
none of foreign currencies is not stable. Anything can happen. But if we talk about the short term, it is better to give preference to the euro, which will grow until April 2018, and then go down.
A brief forecast of the dollar exchange rate for 2018 and the factors that determine it are presented in the video:
Video
Forecast of the dollar/ruble exchange rate in Russia for April 2018. What will happen to the currency in the spring? Will the dollar collapse? Read the opinions of experts and analysts.
What will happen to the ruble after the introduction of US sanctions on April 6? Fresh dollar and euro exchange rate forecast from April 10, 2018:
What will happen to the dollar in April 2018?
Despite minor fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate against the dollar and the euro, the dynamics of prices for "black gold", as well as the background of external decisions on credit rating countries, the national currency continues to look stable.
However, Anna Bodrova, senior analyst at Alpari-Broker, believes that the first month of spring may be the starting point for a change in the long-term trend for the ruble, but these risks are shifted towards the last decade of the month, the website of the Russian currency reports.
According to her forecast, the dollar exchange rate in March may be on average in the range of 55.05-59.00 rubles, and the euro -68-72 rubles. At the same time, the technical chart allows course deviations even by 5-10% in both directions.
Now the position of the Russian ruble looks strong, but it cannot be ruled out that the reserve of such strength is gradually coming to an end
In turn, the leading analyst at TeleTrade Group of Companies, Mark Goykhman, believes that given that a further decrease will play against the ruble key rate Bank of Russia against the backdrop of an increase in rates by the US Federal Reserve and other central banks in the world, as well as the purchase of foreign currency by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, the most likely scenario for the next few months is the ruble against the dollar in the range of 54-61 rubles with some tendency to the upper part of this corridor. At the same time, he is convinced that even the collapse of the US stock market, which sank on the news about steel duties, will not help the national currency.
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In the spring of 2018, the dollar may strengthen
Alor Broker expert Kirill Yakovenko agrees with him, who is sure that the dollar exchange rate is likely to bounce off the lows and move to 58 rubles, and then to 60 rubles per dollar, writes Gazeta.Ru.
The prices of the most liquid OFZs fell by an average of 20 bps. p. means that interest in ruble-denominated assets is gradually declining
Earlier it was reported that Sergey Suverov - the head of the analytical department of the management company BC Savings - said that the US dollar could wait after the presidential elections in Russia. In his opinion, a serious downward dynamics of the ruble exchange rate should not be expected, due to the continued high demand for Russian bonds.
The March meetings of the Central Bank of Russia and the Federal Reserve System will determine the dollar exchange rate forecast for April 2018. In the meantime, the level of 59 rubles per dollar is expected in a three-year period.
Analysts' forecast for the dollar from April 1
The Russian ruble depends on monetary policy USA and the oil market. Despite the support provided, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation have less influence on the domestic currency, so the well-being of Russians also depends on how the American counterpart behaves.
Experts believe that the main factor influencing the dollar quotes to a greater extent in Russia, will be the news from the Federal Reserve System of North America. As for the ruble, the decision of the Central Bank to reduce the key rate may attract speculative capital to the domestic market. However, the oil market remains the fundamental factor for both currencies. At present, when a barrel of Brent is estimated at $64.2, analysts' forecast for the range of the US dollar is 56.8-57.3, and the single European currency is 69.9-70.3 rubles.
US dollar exchange rate statistics (data from the CBR, from the beginning of 2018)
Ivan Kopeikin, an expert at BCS Broker, is sure that in the near future there are no reasons for an increase in oil prices, which means that the ruble will not strengthen either: “ Oil is still volatile and remains (in part) dependent on various political wills". However, oil quotes are unlikely to be able to rise above the level of $68-70 in March, and it is possible from April 1 or later.
Latest news and expert forecasts
Already in mid-March, OPEC will publish its next monthly report. In addition, the world is waiting for news from the conference of American oil producers and the countries of the Middle East, which will be held in Houston. The uniqueness of the meeting is that these are the main competitors who rarely enter into negotiations. It is worth recalling that at the end of last year, OPEC countries and producers outside the cartel, including Russia, extended the agreement on maintaining oil prices until the end of 2018. However, the United States, which did not take part in the agreement, raised the level of production to record levels.
« Growth in production may offset all the actions of OPEC to restore balance in the world market”, - says Sergey Korolev, who is the head of the customer service department of JSC IC ZERICH Capital Management.
Also in the second half of March will be a meeting of the Fed. The event will be chaired by new leader Jerome Powell. Experts believe that as a result of this appointment, the increase in the key rate will be from 0.25% to 1.75%. But the intrigue is not how many percentage points it will change, but how many times this will happen during the year. If this happens more than three times, then experts' forecasts come down to the fact that the dollar will go on the offensive and this will affect other world currencies, including the ruble.
Shortly after the meeting of the US Federal Reserve, a meeting will be held at the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, at which a decision will also be made to change the key rate. It is expected that the regulator will reduce from the current 7.50% to 0.25-0.5%.
Of the other factors that can support Russian ruble experts point out:
- upgrading the country's rating from the speculative level to the investment level;
- heightened interest foreign investors to domestic assets and securities;
- interest in carry trade transactions.
Despite positive forecasts, Sergey Drozdov, an analyst at Finam Group, believes that the effect will not last long, since the oil market and world exchanges " risks of a new wave of decline remain».
According to the latest news, Sberbank analysts have adjusted the three-year forecast, according to which the average annual dollar exchange rate in 2020 will be around 59 rubles, previously - 60. .5% in 2019-2020 Inflation will also be within 4%.
It is too early to say that the dollar exchange rate forecast for April 2018 can be called positive for Russians. However, experts assure that in the near future the ruble will maintain a stable exchange rate, and the dollar will continue to decline.
Latest news about the Ministry of Finance of Russia
Another drop- american currency updated three-year minimum. The dollar in Russia was affected by the drop in retail sales in North America, which, in turn, undermined the interest of investors. This situation could not but affect the domestic currency, the exchange rate of which is supported by oil quotes, as well as the manifestation of foreign investors' interest in Russian bonds.
According to the latest news, the decline of the dollar to the minimum over the past three years, the mark was reflected in all world quotes: the euro rose by 0.5%, the yen and yuan also strengthened their positions. According to experts, the American currency lost about 1.6-2.2% against the world's leading currencies.
The dynamics of the dollar since the beginning of February 2018
All the fault, according to experts, ambiguous statistics. After the US Department of Commerce announced that January inflation would remain at the December 2017 level of 2.1%, prices rose by 1.8%. Previously, this information could have provoked a strengthening of the dollar, but a decrease in retail sales by 0.3% against the forecast of 0.2% did their job and American money began to lose its value.
Economists note weakening currencies developing countries. However, the Russian ruble, on the contrary, strengthened. The reason for this is the rise in oil prices caused by the publication of the US Department of Energy report on oil reserves.
The second factor is interest in Russian OFZs. A successful auction, in which the Ministry of Finance placed bonds for 45 billion rubles, had a positive impact on the ruble exchange rate. Here, experts note that investors are also fueled by rumors about a possible increase in the country's rating to investment grade. What causes an increased interest in carry-trade transactions. " The picture so far looks very decent for Russia, and I do not exclude the possibility that, in the absence of external shocks, the dollar exchange rate may drop to the level of 55 rubles in the coming months.”, - says Denis Korshilov, who holds the position of head of the monetary and financial department of Citibank.
Expert forecasts for the USD/RUB pair from April 1
Meanwhile, the depreciation of the dollar may please travel enthusiasts - experts' forecasts confidently declare that the American will drop to 55.3-55.5 rubles already in early spring. Experts call the recent decline in the value of the domestic currency expected, stating that the fluctuations occurred within the established limits. And they also believe that the ruble will continue to strengthen until the end of the month.
Also, despite the recent decline in oil prices (from $71 to $61.5 per barrel), the ruble remains stable and even slightly strengthens. Experts note that black gold has not crossed the $61 threshold due to positive forecasts by the International Energy Agency and OPEC regarding global demand for raw materials. Thus, it is expected that this year it will grow to 98.6 million barrels per day.
On the whole, experts say that in the near future the quotations for oil and oil products will recover and, thereby, will support the rate of the domestic currency. And if everything is not so clear in the EUR/USD pair, the ruble will retain its stability against its American counterpart. Until the end of the month, stability and low chances of possible global changes that can bring down the ruble are predicted. The analysts' forecast says that the dollar will be traded in the ruble range of 56.8-56.2. Thus, if the Russians are planning to replenish their foreign exchange reserves, then now is the time to do this, and not wait for the situation to change from April 1, on the eve of the May holidays.