The key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on 31.12. The key rate of the Central Bank will replace the refinancing rate in the documents
Various measures are being taken to improve the economy of our country. Including correcting the main financial indicators. What will it be, what does it affect and what forecasts do experts give - in our review.
Regulator of the situation in macroeconomics
The refinancing rate is the percentage at which banks and other financial institutions borrow money from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to provide loans and credits to the population and businesses. Refinancing rate in 2017 continues to act as an instrument capable of influencing inflation rates and influencing economic situation in the country as a whole. How does this happen?
When the interest rate decreases, loans become more affordable, as the cost of providing them is lower. As a result, producers expand their capabilities and increase profits from economic activities.
But there is also a negative side to the decrease in the indicator of the Bank of Russia under consideration: the population has a lot of so-called "cheap" money, which can be used to purchase more goods. The result is a rise in prices (in order to increase incomes) and a gradual increase in inflation.
And when the refinancing rate increases, the opposite effect occurs:
- loans are getting more expensive;
- the number of borrowers is decreasing;
- the level of consumption is decreasing;
- as a result, a slowdown in inflation.
That's why Has the rate changed since January 1, 2017?, an important point that can influence the economic situation in the country.
What now: refinancing rate in 2017 at
Over the past two years, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has kept a high percentage of refinancing compared to 2010-2013 in order to stabilize the situation on foreign exchange market. Also succeeded:
- to slow down the pace of inflation growth from 11.0% to 6.5%;
- reduce inflation expectations;
- keep oil prices above $45/bbl.
However, after such measures, 2 negative consequences came:
- there was a risk of finally exhausting the budget reserves;
- the business activity of economic entities that need the support of the Central Bank has decreased.
Read also Transfer and placement pension savings pension fund Russia
Therefore, based on the order of the Bank of Russia No. 3894-U, at the beginning of 2016, the refinancing rate was equated to the key one. In addition, it was decided to gradually reduce this figure in the future:
date of | The value of the refinancing rate |
January 1, 2016 | 11,0% |
June 14, 2016 | 10,5% |
September 19, 2016 | 10% |
In this way, refinancing rate from January 1, 2017 remained at 10%. Since, according to the leadership of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the potential for its further reduction is temporarily absent.
Forecasts for 2017
The change in the refinancing rate is taking place in order to improve the economic situation in Russia. Meanwhile, it is already known that at the beginning of 2017 pensioners will receive a lump sum payment of 5,000 rubles. And this may affect the acceleration of inflation and force the Bank of Russia to postpone the issue of revising the rate.
Experts suggest that favorable conditions external conjuncture central bank could reduce the rate to 9 - 8.5%. Optimistic forecasts are based on the following conditions:
- slow rate of inflation;
- stable foreign exchange market;
- moderate rise in oil prices.
If the desired result is achieved, the reduction will have a positive impact on the recovery of the economy of our country. And when high risk the occurrence of negative factors, its indicator will remain at the same level.
On March 24, 2017, the Bank of Russia lowered the key rate from 10 percent to 9.75 percent. Then again there was a decrease of 0.50%. Since May 2, 2017, the rate has already reached 9.25 percent
How will the reduction in the rate affect the work of an accountant?
If there is a decrease refinancing rates in 2017, this change will, for example, affect:
Indicator | Explanation |
Calculation of compensation for late payment of salaries | The Labor Code requires businesses to pay employees on time. In case of delay, monetary compensation is due. It is equal to 1/150 of the key rate. The calculation formula looks like this: When the rate is reduced to 9.5%, the coefficient 0.1 (10%) will change to 0.095. |
Calculation of interest on taxes and contributions | According to paragraph 4 of Art. 75 of the Tax Code of the Russian Federation, for each day of late payment, you will have to additionally transfer 1/300 of the refinancing rate (from the 31st day - 1/150 of the rate). If the Central Bank of the Russian Federation lowers the indicator, the amount of interest paid will decrease. |
Non-compliance with the IFTS deadline for the return of overpayments on taxes, contributions | The Federal Tax Service is obliged to return the excess paid Money within a month after receiving an application for overpayment from the organization or individual entrepreneur. If this requirement is violated, interest is charged, the calculation of which is based on the key rate. |
Key rate of the Bank of Russia and all its changes
The key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for today, i.е. from 28.10.2019 is - 6.50%., and from December 16, 2019 it will be - 6.25%. The next Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, held on December 13, 2019, decided to cut the key rate by 25 bp to 6.25% per annum. This key rate will be valid until February 07, 2020.
The Board of Directors noted that inflation is decelerating faster than expected. Inflationary expectations of the population continue to decline. Price expectations of enterprises as a whole have not changed. Rates of growth Russian economy increased in the third quarter, but it is still difficult to assess their sustainability. The risks of a significant slowdown in the global economy remain. In the short term, disinflationary risks still prevail over proinflationary ones. Taking into account the ongoing monetary credit policy annual inflation will be 3.5–4.0% in 2020 and will remain close to 4% in the future.
If the situation develops in line with the baseline forecast, the Bank of Russia will assess the feasibility of a further reduction in the key rate in the first half of 2020. The Bank of Russia will make decisions on the key rate taking into account the actual and expected inflation dynamics relative to the target, economic development over the forecast horizon, as well as assessing the risks from internal and external conditions and the reaction of financial markets to them.
Key rate of the Bank of Russia for December 2019 - February 2020
At a regular meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, held on December 13, 2019 a decision was made to cut the key rate by 25 bp to 6.25%. This key rate will be valid from 12/16/2019 to 02/07/2020, i.e. before the date of the next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia.
The previous key rate of the Bank of Russia was 6.50% and its validity period lasted about two months (from October 28, 2019 to December 15, 2019).
In deciding to lower the key rate to 6.25%, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia proceeded from the following:
Dynamics of inflation. Inflation is slowing down faster than expected. Annual growth rate consumer prices decreased to 3.5% in November (from 3.8% in October 2019) and, according to estimates on December 9, amounted to about 3.4%. Annual core inflation in November also fell to 3.5% after 3.7% in October. Inflation indicators reflecting the most stable processes of price dynamics, according to the Bank of Russia, are close to or below 4%. At the end of 2019, the Bank of Russia forecasts inflation in the range of 2.9–3.2%.In November, disinflationary factors continued to have a significant impact on inflation. Annual rates of growth in prices for food and non-food products continued to decline. In terms of one-time factors, a high harvest and an expansion of supply in certain food markets contribute to maintaining low rates of growth in food prices, taking into account seasonality. The strengthening of the ruble since the beginning of the year, along with the slowdown in inflation in the countries - trading partners, limits the growth in prices for imported goods. Restrained demand, including external demand, continues to influence inflation. At the same time, the acceleration of inflation in the market segment of the service sector, which occurred in November, may be one of the signs of a recovery in consumer demand.
In November, inflation expectations of the population continued to decline, while remaining at an elevated level. Price expectations of enterprises as a whole have not changed. The slowdown in annual inflation creates conditions for reducing inflationary expectations of the population and business in the future.
According to the forecast of the Bank of Russia, taking into account ongoing monetary policy annual inflation will be 3.5–4.0% in 2020 and will remain close to 4% in the future. At the same time, annual inflation will be below 3% in the first quarter of 2020, when the effect of the VAT increase will be taken out of its calculation.
Monetary conditions. Since the previous meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, monetary conditions have continued to soften. OFZ yields and deposit and lending rates were declining. The decisions taken by the Bank of Russia to reduce the key rate and the decline in OFZ yields create conditions for a further reduction in deposit and lending rates, which will support the growth of corporate and mortgage lending. The Bank of Russia will assess the impact of decisions already made on the key rate on monetary conditions and inflation dynamics.
economic activity. The GDP growth rate in 2019 may be closer to the upper limit of the Bank of Russia forecast range - 0.8–1.3%. This is primarily due to higher-than-expected annual GDP growth in the third quarter. However, the sustainability of such economic growth rates is still difficult to assess.
In the III-IV quarters there was some improvement in the dynamics of domestic demand. Thus, investment activity slightly increased, including due to an increase in capital expenditure budget. Annual turnover growth rate increased in October retail. The annual growth of industrial production continued. However, leading indicators point to continued weak business sentiment in the industry, especially in terms of export orders. Economic activity continues to be constrained by a decline in external demand for Russian exports amid a slowdown in global economic growth.
The labor market does not create excessive inflationary pressure. Unemployment near historically low levels due not to an expansion in demand for labor, but to a simultaneous reduction in the number of employed and able-bodied population.
In the second half of 2019, economic growth began to be supported by the budget policy, which, among other things, is associated with the implementation of the Government’s planned national projects. Going forward, increased government spending, including investment spending, will contribute to the economic growth.
The forecast for GDP growth in 2020–2022 has been kept by the Bank of Russia unchanged. The GDP growth rate will gradually increase from 0.8–1.3% in 2019 to 2–3% in 2022. This is possible as the Government implements a set of measures to overcome structural constraints, including the implementation of national projects. At the same time, the lower growth rates of the global economy expected over the forecast horizon will continue to have a restraining effect on the growth of the Russian economy.
inflation risks. In the short term, disinflationary risks still prevail over proinflationary ones. This is primarily due to the state of domestic and foreign demand. Disinflationary risks from the dynamics of prices for certain food products remain, including due to an increase in the supply of agricultural products.
At the same time, it is necessary to take into account the effect of pro-inflationary factors. The risks of a reversal of trends in the food market are not ruled out, given that the ratio of temporary and permanent factors in this market is difficult to assess. Along with this, the implemented easing of monetary policy may have a more significant upward impact on inflation than the Bank of Russia estimates. In the event of a more significant slowdown in global economic growth, including under the influence of tightening international trade restrictions, other geopolitical factors, there may be an increase in volatility in world commodity and financial markets, influencing exchange rate and inflation expectations. At the same time, pro-inflationary risks from growth budget spending remain modest in 2020 as spending increases are likely to be spread over time.
Over a longer horizon, pro-inflationary risks from a number of domestic conditions remain. Raised and unanchored inflation expectations remain a significant risk. The medium-term dynamics of inflation may also be influenced by the parameters budget policy, including decisions on investing the liquid part of the Fund national welfare above the threshold of 7% of GDP.
The assessment by the Bank of Russia of the risks associated with the dynamics of wages and possible changes in consumer behavior has not changed significantly. These risks remain moderate.
If the situation develops in line with the baseline forecast, the Bank of Russia will assess the feasibility of a further reduction in the key rate at one of the next meetings of the Board of Directors. The Bank of Russia will make decisions on the key rate taking into account the actual and expected inflation dynamics relative to the target, economic development over the forecast horizon, as well as assessing the risks from internal and external conditions and the reaction of financial markets to them.
The next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, which will consider the issue of the key rate level, is scheduled for February 7, 2020. Time of publication of the press release on the decision of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia - 13:30 Moscow time.
Dynamics of the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for 2013 - 2019 and beyond...
The key rate was announced as the main instrument of monetary policy from September 13, 2013. Starting from this date and until the end of 2013, it was 5.50% per annum, inflation at the end of 2013 was 6.45%.
In 2014, the key rate changed 6 times, and all in the direction of growth. Russia ended 2014 with the Central Bank's key rate of 17.00%. A sharp increase in the key rate to 17.00% per annum occurred on December 16, 2014. The Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia noted that this decision was due to the need to limit the significantly increased Lately devaluation and inflation risks. Inflation at the end of 2014 amounted to 11.36%.
2015, which began with the rate of 17% per annum, continued with its gradual decrease. During 2015, there were 5 changes in the key rate, and the rates themselves during the year were 6. The year ended with a key rate of 11.00%. Inflation at the end of 2015 amounted to 12.90%.
During January - June 2016, the Bank of Russia periodically decided to keep the key rate in force since 2015 at the level of 11.0% per annum, from June 14 it reduced it to 10.50%, and from September 19, 2016 it reduced it to -10, 00%. At the end of 2016, the key rate was kept at 10.00%. Inflation at the end of 2016 was 5.4%.
Since the beginning of 2017, the key rate by the Bank of Russia has remained at the level of 10.00%, and its methodical reduction began in the second quarter. During 2017, the key rate changed 6 times and decreased from 10.00% to 7.75% by the end of the year. Inflation in Russia in 2017 was 2.5%.
At the beginning of 2018, the key rate of the Bank of Russia was 7.75% per annum, from February 12, 2018 it was reduced to 7.50%, from March 26, 2018 it was reduced to 7.25% per annum, and from September 17, 2018 it was increased to 7 ,fifty%. From December 17, 2018, the rate was again raised to 7.75% and returned to the rate in effect at the beginning of the year. The key rate of 7.75% will be valid until March 22, 2019.
From the beginning of 2019, the rate of the Bank of Russia was 7.75% per annum, from June 17, 2019 - 7.50%, from July 29, 2019 - 7.25%, from 09.09.2019 - 7.00%, from 10.28.2019 city - 6.50%, and from December 16, 2019 - 6.25% and which will be valid until February 07, 2020. The dynamics of the key rate of the Bank of Russia in 2019 is impressive, as it has changed for the sixth time during the year. The total decrease for the year amounted to 1.50 percentage points.
Table of dynamics (changes) in the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for 2013 - 2020
The table shows the dynamics (changes) of the key rate of the Bank of Russia since its introduction (since September 13, 2013):
Rate period | Key rate of the Bank of Russia (%) |
---|---|
from December 16, 2019 - to February 07, 2020 (date may be specified) | 6,25 |
from October 28, 2019 - to December 15, 2019 | 6,50 |
from September 09, 2019 - to October 27, 2019 | 7,00 |
from July 29, 2019 - to September 08, 2019 | 7,25 |
from June 17, 2019 - to July 28, 2019 | 7,50 |
from December 17, 2018 - to June 16, 2019 | 7,75 |
from September 17, 2018 - to December 16, 2018 | 7,50 |
from March 26, 2018 - to September 16, 2018 | 7,25 |
February 12, 2018 - March 25, 2018 | 7,50 |
from December 18, 2017 - to February 11, 2018 | 7,75 |
from October 30, 2017 - to December 17, 2017 | 8,25 |
from September 18, 2017 - to October 29, 2017 | 8,50 |
from June 19, 2017 - to September 17, 2017 | 9,00 |
from May 02, 2017 - to June 18, 2017 | 9,25 |
from March 27, 2017 - to May 01, 2017 | 9,75 |
from September 19, 2016 - to March 26, 2017 | 10,00 |
from June 14, 2016 - to September 18, 2016 | 10,50 |
from August 03, 2015 - to June 13, 2016 | 11,00 |
from June 16, 2015 - to August 02, 2015 | 11,50 |
from May 05, 2015 - June 15, 2015 | 12,50 |
from March 16, 2015 to May 04, 2015 | 14,00 |
February 02, 2015 to March 15, 2015 | 15,00 |
from December 16, 2014 to February 01, 2015 | 17,00 |
from December 12, 2014 to December 15, 2014 | 10,50 |
from November 05, 2014 to December 11, 2014 | 9,50 |
from July 28, 2014 to November 04, 2014 | 8,00 |
April 28, 2014 to July 27, 2014 | 7,50 |
from March 03, 2014 to April 27, 2014 | 7,00 |
from September 14, 2013 to March 02, 2014 | 5,50 |
Definition and introduction history
The key rate of the Bank of Russia was officially announced for the first time as the main instrument of monetary policy on September 13, 2013. Then, at the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, a new macroeconomic concept - "Key Bet", as well as the approach to monetary policy instruments was changed.
It was on September 13, 2013 that the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation made a historic decision to implement a set of measures to improve the tools of the monetary policy system as part of the transition to the inflation targeting regime * .
Measures under the new monetary policy of the Bank of Russia include the following:
- introduction key rate by unifying interest rates on transactions for providing and absorbing liquidity on an auction basis for a period of 1 week;
- formation of an interest rate corridor Bank of Russia and optimization of the system of instruments for regulating the liquidity of the banking sector;
- changing the role of the refinancing rate in the system of instruments of the Bank of Russia.
The key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is the rate set by the Bank of Russia in order to have a direct or indirect impact on the level of interest rates in the country's economy, which occurs through lending by the Bank of Russia to commercial banks. That is, with its help there is an impact on the economy in order to achieve the planned level of inflation.
Regulation of the key rate, as a rule, is the main instrument of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia.
From January 1, 2016, the Bank of Russia adjusted the refinancing rate to the level of the key rate, and before that date, the refinancing rate was of secondary importance and was indicated on the website of the Bank of Russia for reference.
That is, starting from September 13, 2013, and until January 1, 2016, an entry was made on the website of the Bank of Russia (in the section of the main indicators of the financial market), which already reflected new approaches to the system of monetary policy instruments. The entry looked like this:
- Key rate, % - 0.00
- For reference: refinancing rate, % - 0.00.
Important: The Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia (dated December 11, 2015) established that starting from January 1, 2016:
- the value of the refinancing rate is equated to the value of the key rate of the Bank of Russia, determined on the relevant date, and its independent value is not set in the future. A change in the refinancing rate will occur simultaneously with a change in the key rate of the Bank of Russia by the same amount.
- from January 1, 2016 Government Russian Federation will use the key rate of the Bank of Russia in all regulations instead of the refinancing rate (about which the Prime Minister of Russia D. Medvedev signed an order).
So, the current key rate of the Bank of Russia is 6.25% per annum, and its validity period is from December 16, 2019 to February 07, 2020.
* Inflation targeting is a set of measures that is expressed in the choice of economic goals that need to be influenced in order to achieve the planned level of inflation.
The dynamics of the refinancing rate from January 1, 1992 to September 13, 2013 can be viewed
Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia)
Press Service
107016, Moscow, st. Neglinnaya, 12
The Bank of Russia decided to cut the key rate by 25 bp to 6.25% per annum
On December 13, 2019, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia decided to reduce by 25 bp to 6.25% per annum. Inflation is slowing down faster than expected. Inflationary expectations of the population continue to decline. Price expectations of enterprises as a whole have not changed. The growth rates of the Russian economy picked up in the third quarter, but it is still difficult to assess their sustainability. The risks of a significant slowdown in the global economy remain. In the short term, disinflationary risks still prevail over proinflationary ones. Taking into account the ongoing monetary policy, annual inflation will be 3.5-4.0% in 2020 and will remain close to 4% in the future.
If the situation develops in line with the baseline forecast, the Bank of Russia will assess the feasibility of a further reduction in the key rate in the first half of 2020. The Bank of Russia will make decisions on the key rate taking into account the actual and expected inflation dynamics relative to the target, economic development over the forecast horizon, as well as assessing the risks from internal and external conditions and the reaction of financial markets to them.
Dynamics of inflation. Inflation is slowing down faster than expected. The annual growth rate of consumer prices in November decreased to 3.5% (from 3.8% in October 2019) and, as of December 9, was estimated at about 3.4%. Annual core inflation in November also fell to 3.5% after 3.7% in October. Inflation indicators reflecting the most stable processes of price dynamics, according to the Bank of Russia, are close to or below 4%. At the end of 2019, the Bank of Russia forecasts inflation in the range of 2.9–3.2%.
In November, disinflationary factors continued to have a significant impact on inflation. Annual rates of growth in prices for food and non-food products continued to decline. In terms of one-time factors, a high harvest and an expansion of supply in certain food markets contribute to maintaining low rates of growth in food prices, taking into account seasonality. The strengthening of the ruble since the beginning of the year, along with the slowdown in inflation in the countries - trading partners, limits the growth in prices for imported goods. Restrained demand, including external demand, continues to influence inflation. At the same time, the acceleration of inflation in the market segment of the service sector, which occurred in November, may be one of the signs of a recovery in consumer demand.
In November, inflation expectations of the population continued to decline, while remaining at an elevated level. Price expectations of enterprises as a whole have not changed. The slowdown in annual inflation creates conditions for reducing inflationary expectations of the population and business in the future.
According to the forecast of the Bank of Russia, taking into account the ongoing monetary policy, annual inflation will be 3.5–4.0% in 2020 and will remain close to 4% in the future. At the same time, annual inflation will be below 3% in the first quarter of 2020, when the effect of the VAT increase will be taken out of its calculation.
Monetary conditions. Since the previous meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, monetary conditions have continued to soften. OFZ yields and deposit and lending rates were declining. The decisions taken by the Bank of Russia to reduce the key rate and the decline in OFZ yields create conditions for a further reduction in deposit and lending rates, which will support the growth of corporate and mortgage lending. The Bank of Russia will assess the impact of decisions already made on the key rate on monetary conditions and inflation dynamics.
economic activity. The GDP growth rate in 2019 may be closer to the upper limit of the Bank of Russia forecast range - 0.8–1.3%. This is primarily due to higher-than-expected annual GDP growth in the third quarter. However, the sustainability of such economic growth rates is still difficult to assess.
In the III-IV quarters there was some improvement in the dynamics of domestic demand. Thus, investment activity increased somewhat, including due to an increase in budget capital expenditures. In October, the annual growth rate of retail trade turnover increased. The annual growth of industrial production continued. However, leading indicators point to continued weak business sentiment in the industry, especially in terms of export orders. Economic activity continues to be constrained by a decline in external demand for Russian exports amid a slowdown in global economic growth.
The labor market does not create excessive inflationary pressure. Unemployment near historically low levels is due not to an expansion in the demand for labor, but to a simultaneous decline in the number of employed and able-bodied population.
In the second half of 2019, the budget policy began to support economic growth, which, among other things, is associated with the implementation of the national projects planned by the Government. Going forward, an increase in government spending, including investment, will contribute to economic growth.
The forecast for GDP growth in 2020–2022 has been kept by the Bank of Russia unchanged. The GDP growth rate will gradually increase from 0.8–1.3% in 2019 to 2–3% in 2022. This is possible as the Government implements a set of measures to overcome structural constraints, including the implementation of national projects. At the same time, the lower growth rates of the global economy expected over the forecast horizon will continue to have a restraining effect on the growth of the Russian economy.
inflation risks. In the short term, disinflationary risks still prevail over proinflationary ones. This is primarily due to the state of domestic and foreign demand. Disinflationary risks from the dynamics of prices for certain food products remain, including due to an increase in the supply of agricultural products.
At the same time, it is necessary to take into account the effect of pro-inflationary factors. The risks of a reversal of trends in the food market are not ruled out, given that the ratio of temporary and permanent factors in this market is difficult to assess. Along with this, the implemented easing of monetary policy may have a more significant upward impact on inflation than the Bank of Russia estimates. In the event of a more significant slowdown in global economic growth, including under the influence of tightening international trade restrictions and other geopolitical factors, volatility in global commodity and financial markets may increase, affecting exchange rate and inflation expectations. At the same time, pro-inflationary risks from the growth of budget spending in 2020 remain low due to the fact that the increase in spending is likely to be distributed over time.
Over a longer horizon, pro-inflationary risks from a number of domestic conditions remain. Raised and unanchored inflation expectations remain a significant risk. Fiscal policy parameters, including decisions to invest the liquid part of the National Wealth Fund above the threshold level of 7% of GDP, may also affect the medium-term dynamics of inflation.
The assessment by the Bank of Russia of the risks associated with the dynamics of wages and possible changes in consumer behavior has not changed significantly. These risks remain moderate.
If the situation develops in line with the baseline forecast, the Bank of Russia will assess the feasibility of a further reduction in the key rate in the first half of 2020. The Bank of Russia will make decisions on the key rate taking into account the actual and expected inflation dynamics relative to the target, economic development over the forecast horizon, as well as assessing the risks from internal and external conditions and the reaction of financial markets to them.
Based on the results of the meeting of the Board of Directors on the key rate on December 13, 2019, the Bank of Russia published a medium-term forecast.
The next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, which will consider the issue of the key rate level, is scheduled for February 7, 2020. The publication time of the press release on the decision of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia and the medium-term forecast is 13:30 Moscow time.
Many paragraphs of legislative norms are based on what key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is in force today. In particular, this applies to penalties for tax matters, compensations to citizens of the Russian Federation, etc. The influence of the considered parameter on the banking sector is also important. And here there is not only a causal relationship between it and products, for example, interest on deposits and loans, but also a direct definition of certain service conditions. In particular, penalties for violation of the payment schedule for mortgage loans. Considering that the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation changes and its earlier levels are also used in the calculations, below will be given not only its size for today - 2019, but also for earlier periods in the form of a table. This will allow you to define the parameter on necessary period, as well as evaluate the dynamics.
Table - the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for today (2019) and all its changes since then
The key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for today(2019) installed at 6.25%. At the last meeting on December 13, 2019, it was lowered by 0.25%.
The directly considered parameter in the Russian Federation was introduced only five years ago - on September 13, 2013. From January 1, 2016, it was equalized to the refinancing rate. Thus, the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation became, in fact, the only regulatory parameter used to calculate monetary relationships in the legislation.
Date of the meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation |
Decision |
Set value (% per annum) | Effective date of the new key rate level |
---|---|---|---|
12/13/2019 | Downgrade |
6.25 (current level) | December 16, 2019 |
10/25/2019 | Downgrade |
6,50 | October 28, 2019 |
09/06/2019 | Downgrade |
7,00 | 09/09/2019 |
July 26, 2019 | Downgrade |
7,25 | 07/29/2019 |
06/14/2019 | Downgrade |
7,50 | 06/17/2019 |
December 14, 2018 | Increase |
7,75 | 12/17/2018 |
09/14/2018 | Increase |
7,50 | 09/17/2018 |
03/23/2018 |
Downgrade |
7,25 | 03/26/2018 |
02/09/2018 |
Downgrade |
7,50 |
02/12/2018 |
12/15/2017 |
Downgrade |
7,75 |
December 18, 2017 |
10/27/2017 |
Downgrade |
8,25 |
October 30, 2017 |
09/15/2017 |
Downgrade |
8,50 |
09/18/2017 |
06/16/2017 |
Downgrade |
9,00 |
06/19/2017 |
04/28/2017 |
Downgrade |
9,25 |
05/02/2017 |
03/24/2017 |
Downgrade |
9,75 |
03/27/2017 |
09/16/2016 |
Downgrade |
10,00 |
09/19/2016 |
06/10/2016 |
Downgrade |
10,50 |
06/14/2016 |
July 31, 2015 | Downgrade | 11,00 | 08/03/2015 |
06/15/2015 | Downgrade | 11,50 | 06/16/2015 |
04/30/2015 | Downgrade | 12,50 | 05/05/2015 |
03/13/2015 | Downgrade | 14,00 | 03/16/2015 |
01/30/2015 | Downgrade | 15,00 | 02.02.2015 |
12/16/2014 | Increase | 17,00 | 12/16/2014 |
12/11/2014 | Increase | 10,50 | 12/12/2014 |
11/05/2014 | Increase | 9,50 | 11/05/2014 |
07/25/2014 | Increase | 8,00 | July 28, 2014 |
04/25/2014 | Increase | 7,50 | 04/28/2014 |
03/03/2014 | Increase | 7,00 | 03/03/2014 |
09/13/2013 | Install | 5,50 | 09/13/2013 |
A sharp increase in the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation was observed at the end of 2014. It was a natural reaction to the micro- and macroeconomic situation in the Russian Federation. In particular, the introduction of sanctions, both against Russia and as a response. By means of the indicator under consideration, the regulator balances the monetary state of the state. It can be noted that such actions of the Central Bank brought a positive effect, which is reflected in the systematic reduction of the key rate since the beginning of 2015.
The downward trend of the considered parameter lasted for a long time. Up until September 2018. From that moment on, within just four months, there was an increase again. Twice. Both times by 0.25%. Accordingly, 2018 closed not only with a key rate of 7.75%, but also with its negative dynamics. Separately, we note that based on these parameters, it is impossible to predict the change in the rate for the entire 2019. As mentioned, this is a tool of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to respond to various parameters of the country's micro- and macroeconomics.
Meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on the key rate - schedule for 2019
The schedule of the meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is approved in advance. That is, for 2019 it was compiled in the last quarter of 2018. Includes, of course, exclusively scheduled meetings. There are eight in total:
- 02/08/2019 (the rate is left at the same level);
- 03/22/2019 (the rate is left at the same level);
- April 26, 2019 (the rate is left at the same level);
- 06/14/2019 (rate reduced by 0.25%);
- July 26, 2019 (rate reduced by 0.25%);
- 09/06/2019 (rate reduced by 0.25%);
- October 25, 2019 (rate reduced by 0.50%);
- December 13, 2019 (rate reduced by 0.25%).
A couple of nuances can be noted here. First, the list includes only scheduled meetings of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. At the same time, extraordinary events may occur. They are collected only in emergency cases, when there are global changes in the country's economy. If such situations occur, they will be included in the list immediately - at the time of publication of information about such a decision.
Secondly, meetings of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation are held exclusively on working days. That is, scheduled collections do not occur on Saturday, Sunday, or a public holiday. According to the specified schedule, everyone will be on Friday. Thirdly, given that the decision to change the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation can be made on Friday, the entry into force of the new level takes place on the next business day. Often Monday. Only after emergency meetings can a decision be made on its urgent entry into force.
Forecast on the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation
As mentioned earlier, the parameter under consideration is a tool for responding to micro- and macroeconomic indicators. That is, it is impossible to predict its final level for the whole year. The maximum period for which it is possible to predict at least approximately, in fact, with a share of 50 to 50, a possible change in the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is the next meeting of the Board of Directors.
The next meeting will take place next year (02/07/2020). Until then, a lot of changes are possible. At the same time, at the moment there are no significant factors that make it possible to predict a possible increase in the rate. As well as the prerequisites for its reduction. Moreover, at each of the last three meetings, the key rate was reduced by 0.25 and 0.50% (in general, for the last 3 meetings it was reduced by 1.0%). Therefore, most likely, it will be left at the same level. Although a shift up or down is possible, but most likely, with such a decision, which, again, is unlikely, the change will be no more than 0.25%.
What affects the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation
When determining the required level of the key rate, the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation relies on a huge amount of information provided in various reports. All data can be divided into four main groups:
- Current dynamics of inflation;
- Monetary conditions of banks on debt obligations, deposit products, etc.;
- Activity in the economic direction of all persons of the country - individuals and enterprises;
- Forecast on inflationary risks.
Relying even on these four points, without giving a detailed description of them, it becomes clear that the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation reflects the overall economic situation of the country today, and also allows you to contain the negative factors that affect it.
THE BANK OF RUSSIA MADE A DECISION
REDUCE THE KEY RATE TO 9.00% ANNUALLY
On June 16, 2017, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia decided to reduce the key rate to 9.00% per annum. The Board of Directors notes the persistence of inflation near the target level, the continued decline in inflation expectations, as well as the recovery of economic activity. Short-term inflationary risks have decreased, while at the same time they persist in the medium term. To keep inflation close to the target value of 4%, the Bank of Russia will continue to pursue a moderately tight monetary policy.
The Bank of Russia sees room for a key rate cut in the second half of 2017. In the future, when making a decision, the Bank of Russia will proceed from an assessment of inflationary risks, the dynamics of inflation and the economy relative to the forecast.
The Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, when making a decision on the key rate, proceeded from the following.
Dynamics of inflation. Annual inflation in May amounted to 4.1%, remaining close to the target level. Low inflation is gradually becoming sustainable. Price growth rates are becoming more and more homogeneous across regions and major groups of goods and services. The growth in prices for non-food goods and services continued to slow down. Food inflation remains at a relatively low level, although at present, due to the depletion of stocks of the last harvest, there is an increase in the annual growth rate of prices for fruits and vegetables. Against this backdrop, there was an expected short-term increase in annual inflation, which, according to estimates as of June 13, amounted to 4.2%.
In the context of a noticeable slowdown in inflation, inflationary expectations of the population and businesses have significantly decreased. However, this trend may temporarily stop due to the seasonal increase in prices for certain types fruits and vegetables, the dynamics of which are most sensitive to inflation expectations. To consolidate inflation near 4%, further reduction of inflation expectations is necessary.
The disinflationary impact of domestic demand remains. Households generally continue to adhere to the savings model of behavior. At the same time, there is a gradual revival of consumer activity. Dynamics consumer lending does not yet create significant inflationary risks.
Monetary conditions. Moderately tight monetary conditions played an important role in slowing down inflation. Against the backdrop of lowering the key rate interest rates loans have declined. At the same time, their level maintains a balanced demand for credit. Consumption recovery not yet outpacing growth wages. Banks continue to adhere to a conservative policy, softening the price and non-price terms of lending, primarily for reliable borrowers. The decline in deposit rates partly led to a slowdown in the growth of household deposits. The Bank of Russia will create such monetary conditions that will support incentives for savings, which will limit inflationary risks.
economic activity. The recovery of economic activity continues. Along with the growth of investment and industrial production, household consumption is increasing. At present, moderate growth in consumer spending does not create inflationary pressure in the face of an increase in the supply of goods and services.
Taking into account the current recovery trends, the Bank of Russia raised its GDP growth forecast to 1.3-1.8% in 2017. At the same time, economic growth is approaching potential levels. One of the limitations is the situation on the labor market, where there are already signs of a shortage of personnel in certain segments. In the future, the GDP growth rate above 1.5 - 2% per year will be achievable, subject to structural reforms.
inflation risks. Short-term inflationary risks associated with the dynamics of oil prices have decreased due to the extension of the agreement to limit oil production by exporting countries. At the same time, short-term risks associated with the expected harvest, its impact on food prices and inflation expectations traditionally appear at this time of the year.
Medium-term risks remain elevated. First, they are related to the further dynamics of oil prices, which, under the conditions of the agreements reached, began to form at a lower level than expected. Legislative consolidation and implementation budget rule will help mitigate these risks. Secondly, an increase in the structural shortage of labor resources can lead to a significant lag in the growth rate of labor productivity from the growth of wages. Thirdly, a change in the behavior of households associated with a significant decrease in the propensity to save can become a source of inflationary pressure. Fourth, inflation expectations remain sensitive to changes in prices for certain groups of goods and services and exchange rate dynamics. Fifth, a possible tax maneuver could lead to a temporary acceleration of inflation.