Will the euro fall? Analysts discussed what will happen to the dollar, euro, ruble and the Russian economy
For 2019, the long-term forecast for the euro exchange rate is calculated based on a variety of fundamental and technical data. Fundamental data includes world news and events, the situation in Russian Federation and in the European Union, the foreign policy situation in the world and much more. Technical data include the presence of an upward or downtrend on currency pairs and other exchange information. All this makes it possible to predict the euro exchange rate.
The sanctions war unleashed by the US government against Russia leads to serious jumps in the national currency on the stock exchange. The imposed restrictions on cooperation with enterprises, legal and individuals complicate work with foreign partners and divert foreign capital from domestic projects. The export of goods has decreased. This is especially noticeable in the sale of oil, the main export resource.
With the introduction of new sanctions, the rise of the Russian economy should not be expected in the near future. This will drive other European partners away from Russian business. This situation will negatively affect the economic situation in the country and lead to a weakening of the ruble. That, respectively, will cause the growth of the euro and the dollar.
Oil price
Experts from Barclays Capital are talking about an increase in the price of Brent crude oil over $ 80 per barrel since mid-spring 2019. This state of affairs will improve the position of the domestic currency in the world market and will stabilize the price of the euro or even reduce it.
It may happen due to a decrease in its production and processing in Venezuela: production will be reduced by almost half - from 1200 million barrels per day to 500-600 million.
Also, the increase in the cost of "black gold" contributes to the sanctions against Iran. Now European companies have practically ceased to cooperate with Iranian enterprises. However, China, Japan and India continue to buy Iranian oil.
Production in the United States is also decreasing. Due to infrastructure restrictions in one of the central basins, by the end of 2019, production will be reduced to 500-600 million barrels per knock.
A decrease in the price of oil may occur during the development of new fields and an increase in demand for other energy resources.
Situation in Europe
The positions of the European currency largely depend on the situation in the countries of the European Union. Political or economic problems in one of the countries entail a fall in the euro on the world market.
Great Britain has long announced its serious intentions to leave the European Union. In 2016, a referendum was held, as a result of which 51.9% of citizens expressed their desire to leave the EU. Officially Brexit is scheduled for April 2019. If this happens, then the value of the euro may significantly decline against the dollar, and subsequently the ruble.
It will be possible to talk about the prospects of the euro after summing up the results after the publication of the results of the European Central Bank for reporting period... If the heads of financial institutions demonstrate the growth of the economies of the countries, then this will contribute to an increase in the price of the currency.
Situation in Russia
The state of the country's economy today is unstable. US and EU sanctions, high inflation, slow economic development, higher prices for gasoline and essential goods have a negative impact on the ruble's position. Now the situation is stabilized, but the state of affairs may change in a negative direction.
According to the Ministry of Finance, the euro exchange rate will be also unstable, as in the previous several years. However, in 2019 it should not exceed 90 rubles.
In the event of a deterioration in the domestic economic situation and an increase in tensions in relations with other countries and foreign business partners, the ruble will steadily fall, while the euro will grow. In this case, the price may exceed 90 or even 100 rubles.
Euro exchange rate forecast
Analysts' views for 2019 are exactly the opposite. Most experts expect only a worsening of the situation and a rapid rise in the price of the currency. This is due to several factors:
- Constant discoveries of new oil fields and an increase in exporters of "black gold" reduce the likelihood of an increase in the price of this resource. And this significantly affects the state of the Russian economy.
- Changes in the position of the US dollar. Despite being competitive currencies, the euro is heavily dependent on the dollar. When the price of the dollar rises, the same trend can be observed in the euro.
- The depreciation of the ruble is provoked by the citizens themselves, keeping their savings in foreign currency.
Experts who disagree with the actions of the Central Bank see the most pessimistic picture. She argues that the retention of the ruble's position is artificial and soon it may turn into a significant jump in the growth of currencies.
There are also optimistic opinions that predict the strengthening of the ruble and economic growth in the Russian Federation. This can be achieved through the actions of the Government and ordinary citizens:
- Reducing the use of foreign products, paying more attention to the domestic manufacturer.
- Preservation of savings in domestic currency.
- Increasing investment in domestic production.
Today the average bank rate is 75 rubles. A traditional price increase is expected at the beginning of the year until February. Further, it will be possible to observe a slight decline until mid-summer. On average, forecasts stop at around 80 rubles.
Important! The situation can change dramatically in one direction or the other. The reason for this may be unrest within countries, hostilities, natural disasters and cataclysms.
Forecasts of experts of the Ministry of Economic Development
Specialists from the Ministry economic development believe that sharp jumps in the euro exchange rate should not be expected until the end of 2019. The positive result of the elections in France has already had a strengthening effect on the euro, and the same should be expected from the elections in Germany. The situation in the Eurozone is calm, relations between the United States and Russia are beginning to improve. In these conditions, the ruble exchange rate against European monetary units should stabilize and not present any negative surprises.
Traders and bankers are confidently talking about the stable growth of both the euro and the dollar in the coming months. Both currencies are still undervalued, European operations are in high surplus, Russian banks also expect an inflow of foreign capital - all these factors will continue to stimulate the rise in prices for the euro.
Another scenario is also possible, in which in the second half of 2019 the rise in prices for the euro currency will stop and during the autumn there will be a correction in the form of a slight depreciation of the euro.
Forecasted euro rate according to Sberbank
According to the forecast of Sberbank analysts, presented in the table, in the 2nd quarter of 2019, the euro exchange rate in Russia will slightly decline. In the fourth quarter, the euro should strengthen its position and by the end of the year fall in price to 71 rubles per unit.
Month | Direction by the end of the month | Course at the beginning. months (from 1-15) | The course is on the line. months from 15 - 31 |
January | ▲ will rise | 81,29 | 84,15 +2,86 |
February | ▲ will rise | 84,15 | 87,75 +3,6 |
March | ▲ will rise | 87,75 | 89,9 +2,15 |
April | ▼ will decrease | 89,9 | 85,14 –4,76 |
May | ▼ will decrease | 85,14 | 81,72 –3,42 |
June | ▼ will decrease | 81,72 | 79,16 –2,57 |
July | ▼ will decrease | 79,16 | 78,24 –0,91 |
August | ▲ will rise | 78,24 | 78,95 +0,71 |
September | ▼ will decrease | 78,95 | 76,21 –2,74 |
October | ▼ will decrease | 76,21 | 75,14 –1,07 |
November | ▼ will decrease | 75,14 | 71,25 –3,89 |
December | ▼ will decrease | 71,25 | 68,86 –2,39 |
The first three months of 2019 is expected to further increase the value of the euro from 81 to 87 rubles, and over the next 9 months it will decrease to 71-72 rubles per euro. This trend should continue until mid-2020. By May 2020, Sberbank predicts a decline in the value of the euro currency to 62 rubles per euro.
AiF.ru interviewed financial experts and found out what factors will support the ruble in the second half of the year, and, conversely, what difficulties it may face Russian currency.
"American Threat"
Anastasia Sosnova, analyst investment company Freedom Finance:“The ruble, like other emerging market currencies, in the second half of 2018 will remain under pressure from the normalization of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy. This suggests that in the long term, capital outflow from emerging markets with the transfer of money from the sale in US dollars will continue.
Against this background, it makes no sense to expect a serious strengthening of the national currency by the end of the year. The Russian currency may still fall in price against the dollar up to 66 rubles.
The periods of increased volatility for the ruble are likely to be September and December, as two rate hikes are expected in the United States in those months. "
"Ruble got rid of oil"
Alexey Fedorenko, asset manager financial company ICBF:“Thanks to the operations of the Ministry of Finance in the market, the ruble is practically independent of the oil market. It is much more influenced by the actions of non-residents, so that the main risks for the exchange rate lie in the area of investor sentiment in the global market. There are no particular reasons for a serious fall in the value of the national currency: after weakening in early April, quotations are moving in a rather narrow range, with attempts once a month to overcome the mark of 64 rubles per dollar.
The introduction of duties by the world's largest economies is contributing to a slowdown in global GDP growth, which worries investors and forces them to withdraw money from developing countries... If the situation does not change, then the Russian currency may well eventually overcome the current "ceiling" and gain a foothold above 64.50 rubles per dollar and 74.50 per euro. At the same time, one should take into account the massive conversions of domestic exporters who exchange foreign currency earnings to pay taxes, so at the end of each month the ruble will get a break and try to grow, but the long-term picture is not in its favor. "
"The championship will end, the currency will strengthen"
Dmitry Zharsky, Director of the Veta Expert Group:“In the second half of the year, the ruble will first of all lose support from the cash flow brought into the economy by the guests of the 2018 World Cup. This is about $ 0.5-1 billion, which came to currency market and did not allow the dollar to rise above 64 rubles.
With the end of the championship, this support will come to naught, but the federal regional budgets will need to spend 300-500 million rubles a year on each of the stadiums built for the championship, in order to simply maintain them.
Among the main factors exerting pressure on the ruble is the increase in the reserve rate of the US Federal Reserve, and as a result, the growth of global interest in the dollar and the fall in demand for currencies of developing countries. The growing reserve rate is attracting capital to the US economy, diverting it from riskier assets, which certainly include the ruble and Russian OFZs.
I believe that in the second half of 2018, the dollar will trade in the range of 65 - 70 rubles, by the end of the year tending to the upper border. For the euro, the range will be 75 - 83 rubles, the upper limit in priority. "
"September and December are difficult months"
Olga Prokhorova, expert of the International Financial Center:“The Bank of Russia does not intend yet to tighten monetary policy and raise rates, which are already in comparison with developed countries quite high - this is on the one hand. On the other hand, in the United States, rates are increasing, and in Europe, the quantitative easing program is being phased out, and there is a prospect of raising rates in the eurozone next year.
That is, both the dollar and the euro are following the path of appreciation (at least while we see such a trend). What cannot be said about Russian ruble, the dynamics of which is no longer a derivative of oil prices, as it was before.
As for the most “difficult” periods for the ruble, these can be September and December, and it is during these months that the Fed, presumably, can raise rates again. Also on December 3, an OPEC meeting will take place, the outcome of which is not yet possible to predict, since the issues discussed at it will largely depend on the dynamics and conjuncture of the oil market in the coming months. "
Dangerous Trade Warriors and Key Bets
Ivan Kopeikin, expert of the financial company "BCS Broker": “The key risks for the ruble in the second half of the year are likely to be: further tightening monetary policy world central banks. In particular, in the near future, the Fed will increase the volume of operations to reduce the balance sheet to $ 40 billion, and also twice more before the end of the year may raise rates. At the same time, both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are gradually curtailing incentives. All this may lead to an acceleration of capital outflow from developing countries and pressure on the Russian currency.
Of the significant risks, in my opinion, it is also worth highlighting trade wars, which can continue to negatively affect world economy, and, accordingly, commodity assets and the ruble. At the same time, the VAT increase announced by the government may further slow down the growth rate. national economy and increase capital outflow from the country.
The most difficult is traditionally the 4th quarter and in particular November and December. Since during this period there are maximum payments on external borrowings in foreign currency. If we take the seasonality, then moderately light, as a rule, are October and September, as well as the past February, March and April.
The maximum values, in my opinion, can be 66.5-67 for the dollar / ruble pair and 79-80 for the euro / dollar pair ”.
Budget planning of government revenues and expenditures consists of many external and internal factors, one of which is the quotes of world currencies. Forecast of the euro, dollar or franc against the ruble is done by analysts for three years. Exchange rate fluctuations have an impact on the value of imported goods or recreation abroad. Therefore, the change in the price of foreign currency is important not only for the government, but also for ordinary Russians.
The general political situation in the world will also be important. In addition, one should take into account trends for a particular currency and other data from world exchanges.
Is Euro Growth Possible in Russia in 2019?
Currently, the tendencies of growth of the European currency against the ruble persist. The reasons for the appreciation of the euro are as follows:
- US and other EU sanctions;
- increase in prices for fuels and lubricants;
- reduction in gas and oil exports;
- high inflation;
- poor economic situation in Russia;
- the situation in Syria;
- conflict in the east of Ukraine.
If the above reasons continue to persist, then the growth of the euro in the country will steadily increase. However, there are still factors that most affect the European currency - sanctions and the export of gas and oil.
Despite all of the above, it is difficult to predict the euro rate for a fairly long period of time. For example, the dollar exchange rate can be predicted with high accuracy. It all depends on the trend in the European Union regarding currency pair dollar / euro. Still, some experts make fairly accurate predictions with a probability of 40-60%.
Central Bank experts made their forecast for the euro rate for 2019
According to preliminary calculations of experts from the Central Bank of Russia, the euro exchange rate next year will not show stability, as in the past 2 years. According to some reports, in January-March, the European currency may jump to 90 rubles. This will happen if the current situation in the world does not change, which is quite likely.
In addition, with the deterioration of the situation in Russia and the world, the price tag is 90 rubles. for 1 euro will not be the limit. It is worth recalling that in 2017 the UK announced its withdrawal from the European Union. However, if Brexit is still held in 2019, then the euro will decline in value against the Russian ruble. Also, oil prices in dollars can significantly reduce the rate of the euro.
Sberbank experts have created a graph of the euro exchange rate for 2019
Sberbank of Russia experts tried to predict the situation with the euro exchange rate for 2019. In their opinion, starting from April next year, the European currency will tend to decline. But most of all, the data that they showed at the end of 2019 are pleasing. According to experts, at this time the euro will cost no more than 71 rubles.
Sberbank data table
The opinion of independent experts on the euro exchange rate
Russian analysts predict the same trend in the ratio of € to ₽ as Sberbank (only with a step of +5 ₽): an increase to 92-95 ₽ in February-March and a decrease in the spring and until the end of the year - to 75-76 ₽, level in 2020. Which roughly corresponds to the current level.
The forecast for the euro for 2019 from foreign experts is not so optimistic, they predict a corridor of 100-120 rubles per €, based on the following factors:
- The effect of existing sanctions and the likelihood of new ones;
- Deficit state budget;
- Increase in the supply of oil on world markets, due to new deposits in America;
- Inflation in the EU;
- Changes in the level of interest rates in the EU;
- Decrease in Russian exports, especially oil;
- The crisis of the Russian economy.
The ratio of the RUR / EUR pair can also be affected by:
- The ratio of the EUR / USD pair, if it does not increase, then RUR can strengthen its positions;
- Contents of the report of the head of the Central Bank and the Minister of Finance of the EU, if next year the growth of targets is expected, the € will strengthen;
- The Central Bank of the Russian Federation may change interest rate, but so far it is not planned, since inflation is already quite high;
- Investor sentiment based on the final macroeconomic indicators of the Russian Federation.
Despite this, Morgan & Stanley does not predict the value of € more than 80 rubles.
What should the population do
There are no essential prerequisites for the immediate transfer of all savings into rubles or euros, since:
- At the moment, the price fluctuates in the range of 75-80 rubles / €, which is not a boundary value, in 2016 the maximum level of € to the ruble was recorded - 91, and in 2010 the value decreased to a minimum of 59.
- Expert opinion on the price level for € in 2019 dispersed, no one can definitely assert significant growth or decline by the end of the year.
The government controls the permissible limits of fluctuations in the national monetary unit and can take steps to stabilize the situation. Currently, the following exchange rate stabilization program is in force:
- Decrease in expenditure items of the state budget;
- Increase gold and foreign exchange reserves;
- Policy to stimulate the consumption of domestic goods and reduce the demand for foreign products;
- Increase in budget revenues due to increased taxation of enterprises from 01.01.2019.
- The savings portfolio should be multicurrency in order to compensate for the risks of a fall in the quotations of one currency, while the growth of another. For example, deposits can be placed in rubles, dollars and €;
- If a sufficient amount of money has accumulated, it can be invested in liquid real estate;
- Money should work - invest in a reliable business or place on a deposit.
Before deciding on how to save deposits, you need to carefully weigh all the pros and cons. You cannot trust the assumptions of economists 100%, you must always remember that there is a possibility of force majeure.
Euro exchange rate now 86.3401 rubles for 1 Euro. The range of changes is 86.1769 - 86.7587. Previous day rate: 86.4551. Change: -0.1150 rubles, -0.13%. Reverse course:
Euro exchange rate forecast for tomorrow, week and month.
Euro exchange rate forecast by day
date | Day | Min | Max | Well |
01.04 | Wednesday | 84.41 | 86.99 | 85.70 |
02.04 | Thursday | 84.34 | 86.90 | 85.62 |
03.04 | Friday | 86.74 | 89.38 | 88.06 |
06.04 | Monday | 86.91 | 89.55 | 88.23 |
07.04 | Tuesday | 87.60 | 90.26 | 88.93 |
08.04 | Wednesday | 86.71 | 89.35 | 88.03 |
09.04 | Thursday | 86.37 | 89.01 | 87.69 |
10.04 | Friday | 88.07 | 90.75 | 89.41 |
13.04 | Monday | 85.43 | 88.03 | 86.73 |
14.04 | Tuesday | 87.99 | 90.67 | 89.33 |
15.04 | Wednesday | 87.62 | 90.28 | 88.95 |
16.04 | Thursday | 90.25 | 92.99 | 91.62 |
17.04 | Friday | 87.54 | 90.20 | 88.87 |
20.04 | Monday | 88.90 | 91.60 | 90.25 |
21.04 | Tuesday | 91.15 | 93.93 | 92.54 |
22.04 | Wednesday | 93.41 | 96.25 | 94.83 |
23.04 | Thursday | 94.68 | 97.56 | 96.12 |
24.04 | Friday | 96.57 | 99.51 | 98.04 |
27.04 | Monday | 99.45 | 102.47 | 100.96 |
28.04 | Tuesday | 99.07 | 102.09 | 100.58 |
29.04 | Wednesday | 99.16 | 102.18 | 100.67 |
30.04 | Thursday | 99.58 | 102.62 | 101.10 |
04.05 | Monday | 100.34 | 103.40 | 101.87 |
05.05 | Tuesday | 102.84 | 105.98 | 104.41 |
Euro exchange rate forecast for Wednesday, April 1: 85.70 rubles, maximum 86.99, minimum 84.41. Euro exchange rate forecast for Thursday, April 2: 85.62 rubles, maximum 86.90, minimum 84.34. Euro exchange rate forecast for Friday, April 3rd: 88.06 rubles, maximum 89.38, minimum 86.74. Euro exchange rate forecast for Monday, April 6: 88.23 rubles, maximum 89.55, minimum 86.91.
A week later. Euro exchange rate forecast for Tuesday, April 7: 88.93 rubles, maximum 90.26, minimum 87.60. Euro exchange rate forecast for Wednesday, April 8: 88.03 rubles, maximum 89.35, minimum 86.71. Euro exchange rate forecast for Thursday, April 9: 87.69 rubles, maximum 89.01, minimum 86.37. Euro exchange rate forecast for Friday, April 10th: 89.41 rubles, maximum 90.75, minimum 88.07. Euro exchange rate forecast for Monday, April 13th: 86.73 rubles, maximum 88.03, minimum 85.43.
In 2 weeks. Euro exchange rate forecast for Tuesday, April 14: 89.33 rubles, maximum 90.67, minimum 87.99. Euro exchange rate forecast for Wednesday, April 15: 88.95 rubles, maximum 90.28, minimum 87.62. Euro exchange rate forecast for Thursday, April 16: 91.62 rubles, maximum 92.99, minimum 90.25. Euro exchange rate forecast for Friday, April 17th: 88.87 rubles, maximum 90.20, minimum 87.54. Euro exchange rate forecast for Monday, April 20th: 90.25 rubles, maximum 91.60, minimum 88.90.
In 3 weeks. Euro exchange rate forecast for Tuesday, April 21st: 92.54 rubles, maximum 93.93, minimum 91.15. Euro exchange rate forecast for Wednesday, April 22: 94.83 rubles, maximum 96.25, minimum 93.41. Euro exchange rate forecast for Thursday, April 23rd: 96.12 rubles, maximum 97.56, minimum 94.68. Euro exchange rate forecast for Friday, April 24: 98.04 rubles, maximum 99.51, minimum 96.57. Euro exchange rate forecast for Monday, April 27: 100.96 rubles, maximum 102.47, minimum 99.45.
After 4 weeks. Euro exchange rate forecast for Tuesday, April 28th: 100.58 rubles, maximum 102.09, minimum 99.07. Euro exchange rate forecast for Wednesday, April 29: 100.67 rubles, maximum 102.18, minimum 99.16. Euro exchange rate forecast for Thursday, April 30: 101.10 rubles, maximum 102.62, minimum 99.58.
Euro exchange rate forecast for 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024.
Month | Open | Min-Max | Close | Month,% | Total,% |
2020 | |||||
Mar | 86.67 | 85.37-87.97 | 86.67 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Apr | 86.67 | 85.37-87.97 | 86.67 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
May | 86.67 | 86.67-90.61 | 89.27 | 3.0% | 3.0% |
June | 89.27 | 89.27-93.33 | 91.95 | 3.0% | 6.1% |
Jul | 91.95 | 91.95-95.36 | 93.95 | 2.2% | 8.4% |
Aug | 93.95 | 90.62-93.95 | 92.00 | -2.1% | 6.1% |
Sep | 92.00 | 89.92-92.66 | 91.29 | -0.8% | 5.3% |
Oct | 91.29 | 90.54-93.30 | 91.92 | 0.7% | 6.1% |
But I | 91.92 | 87.82-91.92 | 89.16 | -3.0% | 2.9% |
Dec | 89.16 | 89.16-93.21 | 91.83 | 3.0% | 6.0% |
2021 | |||||
Jan | 91.83 | 88.82-91.83 | 90.17 | -1.8% | 4.0% |
Feb | 90.17 | 86.89-90.17 | 88.21 | -2.2% | 1.8% |
Mar | 88.21 | 87.91-90.59 | 89.25 | 1.2% | 3.0% |
Apr | 89.25 | 86.47-89.25 | 87.79 | -1.6% | 1.3% |
May | 87.79 | 85.03-87.79 | 86.32 | -1.7% | -0.4% |
June | 86.32 | 85.04-87.62 | 86.33 | 0.0% | -0.4% |
Jul | 86.33 | 83.92-86.48 | 85.20 | -1.3% | -1.7% |
Aug | 85.20 | 85.20-88.24 | 86.94 | 2.0% | 0.3% |
Sep | 86.94 | 83.69-86.94 | 84.96 | -2.3% | -2.0% |
Oct | 84.96 | 81.28-84.96 | 82.52 | -2.9% | -4.8% |
But I | 82.52 | 82.52-86.28 | 85.00 | 3.0% | -1.9% |
Dec | 85.00 | 83.21-85.75 | 84.48 | -0.6% | -2.5% |
2022 | |||||
Jan | 84.48 | 83.76-86.32 | 85.04 | 0.7% | -1.9% |
Feb | 85.04 | 81.25-85.04 | 82.49 | -3.0% | -4.8% |
Mar | 82.49 | 82.49-86.23 | 84.96 | 3.0% | -2.0% |
Month | Open | Min-Max | Close | Month,% | Total,% |
2022 Continued | |||||
Apr | 84.96 | 84.96-88.37 | 87.06 | 2.5% | 0.4% |
May | 87.06 | 84.42-87.06 | 85.71 | -1.6% | -1.1% |
June | 85.71 | 85.16-87.76 | 86.46 | 0.9% | -0.2% |
Jul | 86.46 | 84.68-87.26 | 85.97 | -0.6% | -0.8% |
Aug | 85.97 | 85.97-89.40 | 88.08 | 2.5% | 1.6% |
Sep | 88.08 | 86.74-89.38 | 88.06 | 0.0% | 1.6% |
Oct | 88.06 | 85.27-88.06 | 86.57 | -1.7% | -0.1% |
But I | 86.57 | 83.22-86.57 | 84.49 | -2.4% | -2.5% |
Dec | 84.49 | 84.49-88.33 | 87.02 | 3.0% | 0.4% |
2023 | |||||
Jan | 87.02 | 87.02-90.97 | 89.63 | 3.0% | 3.4% |
Feb | 89.63 | 89.63-93.18 | 91.80 | 2.4% | 5.9% |
Mar | 91.80 | 91.80-95.97 | 94.55 | 3.0% | 9.1% |
Apr | 94.55 | 90.58-94.55 | 91.96 | -2.7% | 6.1% |
May | 91.96 | 87.86-91.96 | 89.20 | -3.0% | 2.9% |
June | 89.20 | 88.50-91.20 | 89.85 | 0.7% | 3.7% |
Jul | 89.85 | 85.84-89.85 | 87.15 | -3.0% | 0.6% |
Aug | 87.15 | 83.75-87.15 | 85.03 | -2.4% | -1.9% |
Sep | 85.03 | 82.41-85.03 | 83.66 | -1.6% | -3.5% |
Oct | 83.66 | 79.93-83.66 | 81.15 | -3.0% | -6.4% |
But I | 81.15 | 79.09-81.49 | 80.29 | -1.1% | -7.4% |
Dec | 80.29 | 80.29-83.94 | 82.70 | 3.0% | -4.6% |
2024 | |||||
Jan | 82.70 | 79.02-82.70 | 80.22 | -3.0% | -7.4% |
Feb | 80.22 | 79.22-81.64 | 80.43 | 0.3% | -7.2% |
Mar | 80.43 | 77.04-80.43 | 78.21 | -2.8% | -9.8% |
Apr | 78.21 | 74.72-78.21 | 75.86 | -3.0% | -12.5% |
Euro exchange rate forecast for March 2020.
The course at the beginning of the month is 86.67 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 87.97, the minimum is 85.37. Average monthly rate 86.67. The forecast for the euro exchange rate at the end of the month is 86.67, change for March is 0.0%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for April 2020.
The course at the beginning of the month is 86.67 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 87.97, the minimum is 85.37. Average monthly rate 86.67. Euro exchange rate forecast at the end of the month is 86.67, change for April is 0.0%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for May 2020.
The course at the beginning of the month is 86.67 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 90.61, the minimum is 86.67. Average monthly rate 88.31. The forecast for the euro at the end of the month is 89.27, change for May 3.0%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for June 2020.
The course at the beginning of the month is 89.27 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 93.33, the minimum is 89.27. Average monthly rate 90.96. Euro exchange rate forecast at the end of the month is 91.95, change for June is 3.0%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for July 2020.
The course at the beginning of the month is 91.95 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 95.36, the minimum is 91.95. Average monthly rate 93.30. Euro exchange rate forecast at the end of the month is 93.95, change for July is 2.2%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for August 2020.
The course at the beginning of the month is 93.95 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 93.95, the minimum is 90.62. Average monthly rate 92.63. The forecast of the euro exchange rate at the end of the month is 92.00, change for August is -2.1%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for September 2020.
The course at the beginning of the month is 92.00 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 92.66, the minimum is 89.92. Average monthly rate 91.47. The forecast for the euro at the end of the month is 91.29, change for September is -0.8%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for October 2020.
The course at the beginning of the month is 91.29 rubles. The maximum rate is 93.30, the minimum is 90.54. Average monthly rate 91.76. Euro exchange rate forecast at the end of the month is 91.92, change for October is 0.7%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for November 2020.
The course at the beginning of the month is 91.92 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 91.92, the minimum is 87.82. Average monthly rate 90.21. The forecast for the euro at the end of the month is 89.16, change for November -3.0%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for December 2020.
The course at the beginning of the month is 89.16 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 93.21, the minimum is 89.16. Average monthly rate 90.84. Euro exchange rate forecast at the end of the month is 91.83, change for December is 3.0%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for January 2021.
The course at the beginning of the month is 91.83 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 91.83, the minimum is 88.82. Average monthly rate 90.66. The forecast for the euro at the end of the month is 90.17, change for January is -1.8%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for February 2021.
The course at the beginning of the month is 90.17 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 90.17, the minimum is 86.89. Average monthly rate 88.86. The forecast of the euro exchange rate at the end of the month is 88.21, change for February is -2.2%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for March 2021.
The course at the beginning of the month is 88.21 rubles. The maximum rate is 90.59, the minimum is 87.91. Average monthly rate 88.99. The forecast for the euro exchange rate at the end of the month is 89.25, change for March is 1.2%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for April 2021.
The course at the beginning of the month is 89.25 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 89.25, the minimum is 86.47. Average monthly rate 88.19. The forecast of the euro exchange rate at the end of the month is 87.79, the change for April is -1.6%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for May 2021.
The course at the beginning of the month is 87.79 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 87.79, the minimum is 85.03. Average monthly rate 86.73. The forecast for the euro at the end of the month is 86.32, change for May is -1.7%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for June 2021.
The course at the beginning of the month is 86.32 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 87.62, the minimum is 85.04. Average monthly rate 86.33. The forecast for the euro exchange rate at the end of the month is 86.33, change for June is 0.0%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for July 2021.
The course at the beginning of the month is 86.33 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 86.48, the minimum is 83.92. Average monthly rate 85.48. The forecast for the euro at the end of the month is 85.20, change for July is -1.3%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for August 2021.
The course at the beginning of the month is 85.20 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 88.24, the minimum is 85.20. Average monthly rate 86.40. The forecast for the euro exchange rate at the end of the month is 86.94, change for August is 2.0%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for September 2021.
The course at the beginning of the month is 86.94 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 86.94, the minimum is 83.69. Average monthly rate 85.63. The forecast for the euro at the end of the month is 84.96, change for September is -2.3%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for October 2021.
The course at the beginning of the month is 84.96 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 84.96, the minimum is 81.28. Average monthly rate 83.43. The forecast of the euro exchange rate at the end of the month is 82.52, the change for October is -2.9%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for November 2021.
The course at the beginning of the month is 82.52 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 86.28, the minimum is 82.52. Average monthly rate 84.08. The forecast of the euro exchange rate at the end of the month is 85.00, change for November is 3.0%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for December 2021.
The course at the beginning of the month is 85.00 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 85.75, the minimum is 83.21. Average monthly rate 84.61. The forecast for the euro at the end of the month is 84.48, change for December is -0.6%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for January 2022.
The course at the beginning of the month is 84.48 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 86.32, the minimum is 83.76. Average monthly rate 84.90. Euro exchange rate forecast at the end of the month is 85.04, change for January is 0.7%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for February 2022.
The course at the beginning of the month is 85.04 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 85.04, the minimum is 81.25. Average monthly rate 83.46. The forecast of the euro exchange rate at the end of the month is 82.49, the change for February is -3.0%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for March 2022.
The course at the beginning of the month is 82.49 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 86.23, the minimum is 82.49. Average monthly rate 84.04. The forecast of the euro exchange rate at the end of the month is 84.96, change for March is 3.0%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for April 2022.
The course at the beginning of the month is 84.96 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 88.37, the minimum is 84.96. Average monthly rate 86.34. Euro exchange rate forecast for the end of the month is 87.06, change for April is 2.5%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for May 2022.
The course at the beginning of the month is 87.06 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 87.06, the minimum is 84.42. Average monthly rate 86.06. The forecast for the euro exchange rate at the end of the month is 85.71, the change for May is -1.6%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for June 2022.
The course at the beginning of the month is 85.71 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 87.76, the minimum is 85.16. Average monthly rate 86.27. The forecast for the euro at the end of the month is 86.46, change for June is 0.9%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for July 2022.
The course at the beginning of the month is 86.46 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 87.26, the minimum is 84.68. Average monthly rate 86.09. The forecast for the euro exchange rate at the end of the month is 85.97, change for July is -0.6%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for August 2022.
The course at the beginning of the month is 85.97 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 89.40, the minimum is 85.97. Average monthly rate 87.36. Euro exchange rate forecast at the end of the month is 88.08, change for August is 2.5%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for September 2022.
The course at the beginning of the month is 88.08 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 89.38, the minimum is 86.74. Average monthly rate 88.07. Euro exchange rate forecast at the end of the month is 88.06, change for September is 0.0%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for October 2022.
The course at the beginning of the month is 88.06 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 88.06, the minimum is 85.27. Average monthly rate 86.99. The forecast for the euro at the end of the month is 86.57, change for October is -1.7%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for November 2022.
The course at the beginning of the month is 86.57 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 86.57, the minimum is 83.22. Average monthly rate 85.21. The forecast of the euro exchange rate at the end of the month is 84.49, the change for November is -2.4%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for December 2022.
The course at the beginning of the month is 84.49 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 88.33, the minimum is 84.49. Average monthly rate 86.08. Euro exchange rate forecast at the end of the month is 87.02, change for December is 3.0%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for January 2023.
The course at the beginning of the month is 87.02 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 90.97, the minimum is 87.02. Average monthly rate 88.66. The forecast for the euro at the end of the month is 89.63, change for January is 3.0%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for February 2023.
The course at the beginning of the month is 89.63 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 93.18, the minimum is 89.63. Average monthly rate 91.06. The forecast of the euro exchange rate at the end of the month is 91.80, the change for February is 2.4%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for March 2023.
The course at the beginning of the month is 91.80 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 95.97, the minimum is 91.80. Average monthly rate 93.53. The forecast for the euro exchange rate at the end of the month is 94.55, change for March is 3.0%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for April 2023.
The course at the beginning of the month is 94.55 rubles. The maximum rate is 94.55, the minimum is 90.58. Average monthly rate 92.91. The forecast for the euro at the end of the month is 91.96, change for April is -2.7%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for May 2023.
The course at the beginning of the month is 91.96 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 91.96, the minimum is 87.86. Average monthly rate 90.25. The forecast for the euro at the end of the month is 89.20, change for May -3.0%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for June 2023.
The course at the beginning of the month is 89.20 rubles. The maximum rate is 91.20, the minimum is 88.50. Average monthly rate 89.69. The forecast for the euro exchange rate at the end of the month is 89.85, change for June is 0.7%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for July 2023.
The course at the beginning of the month is 89.85 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 89.85, the minimum is 85.84. Average monthly rate 88.17. The forecast for the euro exchange rate at the end of the month is 87.15, change for July is -3.0%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for August 2023.
The course at the beginning of the month is 87.15 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 87.15, the minimum is 83.75. Average monthly rate 85.77. The forecast for the euro exchange rate at the end of the month is 85.03, change for August is -2.4%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for September 2023.
The course at the beginning of the month is 85.03 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 85.03, the minimum is 82.41. Average monthly rate 84.03. The forecast for the euro exchange rate at the end of the month is 83.66, change for September is -1.6%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for October 2023.
The course at the beginning of the month is 83.66 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 83.66, the minimum is 79.93. Average monthly rate 82.10. The forecast for the euro at the end of the month is 81.15, change for October is -3.0%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for November 2023.
The course at the beginning of the month is 81.15 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 81.49, the minimum is 79.09. Average monthly rate 80.51. The forecast of the euro exchange rate at the end of the month is 80.29, change for November is -1.1%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for December 2023.
The course at the beginning of the month is 80.29 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 83.94, the minimum is 80.29. Average monthly rate 81.81. Euro exchange rate forecast at the end of the month is 82.70, change for December is 3.0%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for January 2024.
The course at the beginning of the month is 82.70 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 82.70, the minimum is 79.02. Average monthly rate 81.16. The forecast for the euro exchange rate at the end of the month is 80.22, change for January is -3.0%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for February 2024.
The course at the beginning of the month is 80.22 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 81.64, the minimum is 79.22. Average monthly rate 80.38. The forecast for the euro at the end of the month is 80.43, change for February is 0.3%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for March 2024.
The course at the beginning of the month is 80.43 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 80.43, the minimum is 77.04. Average monthly rate 79.03. The forecast of the euro exchange rate at the end of the month is 78.21, the change for March is -2.8%.
Euro exchange rate forecast for April 2024.
The course at the beginning of the month is 78.21 rubles. The maximum exchange rate is 78.21, the minimum is 74.72. Average monthly rate 76.75. The forecast for the euro exchange rate at the end of the month is 75.86, change for April is -3.0%.
Here you will always find the latest forecast for the euro and the ruble... The forecast is updated and revised by APECON experts on a daily basis, taking into account the latest events and changes in market data.
Forecast of the euro exchange rate for 2020 in Russia: experts' forecasts are divided (optimists predict 70 rubles / €, and pessimists voice the price above 100 rubles per €), the value of the currency is still affected by sanctions from other states, the volume of foreign trade and domestic demand €. A supporting circumstance is the stabilization of the oil price, but the situation with its export partially neutralizes the positive impact on national currency.
Create a table of planned cost foreign currency for a year is not so easy, since the quotes are influenced by many factors, including unforeseen ones. All sounded indicators are only a guideline, you should not completely trust them. Even if you forecast only a week by day, you can make a mistake, because an event may occur (statement of one of the politicians, additional sanctions, force majeure) that will change the trend in the opposite direction.
The projected
Cost projections national money are based on the following factors:
- The number of gold and foreign exchange reserves;
- Expected inflation rate;
- The difference between export and import;
- The rate of economic development;
- Demand for foreign banknotes from the population;
- Domestic consumption;
- Dynamics of income and expenditures of the state budget;
- Central Bank interest rate;
- Government policy to stabilize the situation in the money market;
- The state of the economies of foreign countries (to which money belongs);
- Ratio foreign money paired with the dollar.
Unpredictable
Unpredictable factors are various force majeure that can insignificantly or drastically affect the price, a jump or fall can be so strong that no economist would dare to predict it. The influence of these factors can be both short-term and completely change the direction of the value of money.
Unpredictable events that may affect the price of the monetary unit:
- War or aggravation of the conflict;
- Natural disasters (earthquake, forest fires, tornadoes, floods, volcanic eruptions, etc.);
- Technogenic disasters (accident or explosion at an economically important enterprise, emission of harmful substances into the atmosphere);
- Unforeseen political decisions (conducting unexpected sanctions, emergency government measures to keep the national currency, unexpected statements by politicians).
Are there any prerequisites for the growth of the European currency?
If we talk about the cost of € in 2020, then the main impact will be:
- Sanctions of the United States and other countries in relation to the Russian Federation;
- Decrease in the volume of exports, including gas and oil;
- High inflation;
- Slowdown in the pace of development of the Russian economy;
- Increased energy costs;
- Unfinished conflicts in Syria and Ukraine;
- Relatively stable situation in Europe, successful elections in France and Germany, more positive statements from the main politicians;
- Additional sanctions are possible.
The national currency can be supported by:
- Country policy that stimulates the consumption of domestic products;
- Decrease in demand for currency from the population;
- Increase in the cost of oil;
- Withdrawal of Britain from the European Union, which will reduce the euro against the dollar;
- Building relations between the United States of America and the Russian Federation;
- The refugee problem in Europe could destabilize the EU economy.
The most recent forecast for the euro for 2020 does not imply significant changes, Russian economists predict fluctuations in the range of 70-90 rubles / €. But foreign analytical companies are more categorical and are of the opinion that € will grow to 100-120 rubles / €.
Central Bank analysts' forecast for 2020
The forecast for the euro for 2020 in Russia from the Central Bank is based on the condition that the economy of the Russian Federation and foreign economic relations stabilize, in which case insignificant growth is expected - up to 85-90 rubles / € at the beginning of the year.
What will affect the strengthening of the ruble:
- Increase in oil prices to $ 75-80 per barrel of Brent;
- If the UK leaves the EU in 2020, then this will provoke a reduction in the price of European money against the dollar, and ultimately against the ruble.
Analysts The Central Bank unstable dynamics are expected during the year, and if relations between the EU and Russia deteriorate, additional sanctions are applied, the price of € may be much higher than 90 rubles.
What experts say from the Ministry of Economic Development
Economists of the Ministry of Economic Development are of the opinion that the EUR / RUR pair will be relatively stable in 2020, this will be facilitated by:
- Stable situation in Europe, positive election results in the main countries;
- Improving relations between Russia and the United States.
But, other market participants are not so optimistic, and their forecast for the euro rate for 2020 provides for an increase in the RUR / EUR ratio for the following reasons:
- European currency remains undervalued in Russia;
- High trade surplus with the EU;
- Banks need an influx of foreign investment.
If the situation stabilizes, September may be the start of a decline in RUR / EUR quotes.
Forecasted euro rate according to Sberbank
Having presented the annual report, Sberbank employees surprised them with their optimism, they expect a slight increase in € only in the first quarter - up to 89 RUR / EUR, and from April the RF money will begin to strengthen its positions, and by December the level of quotations will be about 70 RUR / EUR. A detailed forecast of the euro exchange rate for 2020 from Sberbank is provided in the table.
Bankers expect the downtrend to continue in 2020, when the target is 62 RUR / EUR.
Euro exchange rate for 2020 table forecast by months
Sberbank data table
Euro forecast for 2020 in Russia, the table displays the opinion of domestic experts.
The opinion of independent experts on the euro exchange rate
Russian analysts predict the same trend in the ratio of € to ₽ as Sberbank (only with a step of +5 ₽): an increase to 92-95 ₽ in February-March and a decrease in the spring and until the end of the year - to 75-76 ₽, level in 2020. Which roughly corresponds to the current level.
Forecast of the euro for 2020 from foreign experts is not so optimistic, they predict a corridor of 100-120 rubles per €, based on the following factors:
- The effect of existing sanctions and the likelihood of new ones;
- State budget deficit;
- Increase in the supply of oil on world markets, due to new deposits in America;
- Inflation in the EU;
- Changes in the level of interest rates in the EU;
- Decrease in Russian exports, especially oil;
- The crisis of the Russian economy.
The ratio of the RUR / EUR pair can also be affected by:
- The ratio of the EUR / USD pair, if it does not increase, then RUR can strengthen its positions;
- Contents of the report of the head of the Central Bank and the Minister of Finance of the EU, if next year the growth of targets is expected, the € will strengthen;
- The Central Bank of the Russian Federation may change the interest rate, but this is not yet planned, since inflation is already quite high;
- Investor sentiment based on the final macroeconomic indicators of the Russian Federation.
Despite this, Morgan & Stanley does not predict the value of € more than 80 rubles.
Course schedule for 2020
The chart shows that EUR peaks are expected in February, March, April. At the end of 2020. forecasted cost is lower than current values.
What should the population do
There are no essential prerequisites for the immediate transfer of all savings into rubles or euros, since:
- At the moment, the price fluctuates in the range of 75-80 rubles / €, which is not a boundary value, in 2016 the maximum level of € to the ruble was recorded - 91, and in 2010 the value decreased to a minimum of 59.
- Expert opinion on the price level for € in 2020. dispersed, no one can definitely assert significant growth or decline by the end of the year.
The government controls the permissible limits of fluctuations in the national currency and can take measures to stabilize the situation. Currently, the following exchange rate stabilization program is in force:
- Decrease in expenditure items of the state budget;
- Increase in gold and foreign exchange reserves;
- Policy to stimulate the consumption of domestic goods and reduce the demand for foreign products;
- Increase in budget revenues due to increased taxation of enterprises from 01.01.2019.
- The savings portfolio should be multicurrency in order to compensate for the risks of a fall in the quotations of one currency, while the growth of another. For example, deposits can be placed in rubles, dollars and €;
- If a sufficient amount of money has accumulated, it can be invested in liquid real estate;
- Money should work - invest in a reliable business or place on a deposit.
Before deciding on how to save deposits, you need to carefully weigh all the pros and cons. You cannot trust the assumptions of economists 100%, you must always remember that there is a possibility of force majeure.