Demographic problems in the world are part of the so-called global problems. Global problems- these are problems that affect the whole world and for the solution of which the efforts of all mankind are needed. These problems arose in the second half of the 20th century, and in the 21st century they continue to worsen. Their feature is a stable relationship with each other.

The demographic problem itself is divided into two parts:

• The problem of a sharp increase in population in Asia, Africa and Latin America.
• The problem of population decline and aging in Western Europe, Japan and Russia.

The problem of population growth in Asia, Africa and Latin America

Demographic problems in the world became especially relevant in the second half of the 20th century. During this time there were significant changes in social sphere society life:

• First, medicine has advanced widely, thanks to the use of new drugs and new medical equipment. As a result, it was possible to cope with epidemics of diseases that previously destroyed hundreds of thousands of people, and reduce mortality from some other dangerous diseases.
• Secondly, since the middle of the 20th century, mankind has not waged global wars that could massively reduce the population.

As a result, mortality rates worldwide have dropped dramatically. The world population at the beginning of the 21st century reached 7 billion people. Of these, about 6 billion live in Third World countries - Asia, Africa and Latin America. It was in these countries that a process that is commonly called a population explosion took place.

The main causes of the population explosion in Third World countries:

• Still high birth rates, along with low mortality.
• The important role of traditional religious and national values ​​that prohibit abortions and the use of contraceptives.
• In some countries of Central Africa, the influence of the rudiments of pagan culture. And as a result - a low level of morality and promiscuity.

In the 1950s and 60s, the consequences of the population explosion inspired optimistic hopes among the population. However, later it became obvious that a sharp increase in the birth rate leads to a number of problems:

• The problem of quantity able-bodied population. In a number of countries, the number of children under 16 is equal to, and in some even exceeds, the number of adults.
• The problem of lack of territories that satisfy necessary conditions for the life and development of citizens.
• The problem of food shortage.
• The problem of shortage of raw materials.

Thus, the demographic problem is closely related to a number of other global problems.

At the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries, in a number of Third World countries, state level began to pursue a policy that stimulates the decline in the birth rate of the population. This concerns, first of all, China and India, where the mottos from the series: “One family - one child” have become widespread. Families with one or two children began to receive benefits from the government. This gave certain results, and the birth rate was somewhat reduced. But population growth in these countries is still very high.

Features of the demographic situation in developed countries

Demographic problems in the world have greatly affected the developed countries of the West. These countries have seen a clear trend towards aging and shrinking populations over the past fifty years.

That is, on the one hand, the number of older people and life expectancy are increasing. Reasons: improving the level of medical and social services for citizens.

On the other hand, the birth rate is sharply declining, which means that the percentage of the young population is declining.

The developed countries of the world in terms of the demographic situation can be divided into several groups:

• Countries where there is population growth due to their own birth rate. That is, the birth rate in the country exceeds the death rate. These are Slovakia, Ireland, France, England.
• Countries that still maintain population growth due to births, but growth due to migration is higher: Spain, Holland, Finland, Cyprus, USA, Canada, Italy, Greece, Germany.
• States where the population is declining due to the excess of deaths over births and due to the emigration of their population to other countries: Bulgaria, the Baltic countries, Poland.

What are the reasons for the decline in the birth rate in the West? This is, first of all:

• The consequences of the sexual revolution of the 1960s and 70s, when various methods of contraception were widely used.
• Interest in career growth in the service field, which usually significantly increases the time threshold for marriage and the appearance of children in Western countries.
• family crisis in modern society: Increasing divorce rates and unregistered cohabitation.
• Increasing the number of same-sex marriages.
• Modern Western culture of "comfort" itself. It does not encourage parents to spend additional efforts on the upbringing and material support of several children.

Further continuation of the process of reducing the birth rate in Western countries threatens them with the extinction of their own population and its replacement by people from Asia and Africa. The beginning of this process can be seen in Europe right now, analyzing the latest developments with immigrants from the Third World.

The current demographic situation in Russia

Demographic problems in the world have also affected Russia. Our country can be attributed to the European countries of the second group. That is, we have a small population growth, but it is carried out with the help of not only the birth rate, but also immigration from the CIS countries. In 2016, the death rate in Russia exceeds the birth rate by about 70 thousand per year. Migrates to the country, for the same time period about 200 thousand.

Causes demographic problem in Russia:

• Consequences of the economic and social decline of the 1990s. The low standard of living that many families use to justify not wanting to have children. However, it should be taken into account that the high standard of living in the countries of Western Europe, in practice, leads, on the contrary, to a decrease in the birth rate in this region.
• The absence in society, as a result of many years of communist rule, of firm religious foundations, as in a number of Catholic and Muslim countries abroad.
• Wrong policy of the state, as a result of which large families for many years received minimal benefits in the country.
• Lack of propaganda at the state level against abortion. Russia in terms of the number of abortions is one of the first places in the world, along with Vietnam, Cuba and Ukraine.

Government policy aimed in recent years at providing financial support to families who decide to have a second and third child has yielded results.

The improvement of medical care also played a certain role. The birth rate in the country has increased significantly, while the death rate has slightly decreased.

However, it is necessary to create in Russia long-term and large-scale programs aimed at stimulating the birth rate, supporting large families, single mothers, and reducing the number of abortions. Big role can also play state activity aimed at raising the moral level of the population.

Demographic the crisis- This is a term denoting emerging demographic problems both in a separate and in general on the planet. A crisis is usually considered to be a serious population problem, entailing economic and political problems. There are several main types of the crisis a. The first of these is a significant population. A similar situation occurs in modern Russia, as well as a number of other countries of the post-Soviet space and Europe. But if in a number of countries, for example, in Germany, the natural decline can be covered by migrants, then Russia is faced with a situation where even this resource is not enough to replenish the population. It is dangerous for the country, first of all, not to reduce the number of citizens in itself, but economic consequences this process is the lack of workers, as well as the aging of the population, which causes an increase in the tax burden on the able-bodied. There are several reasons for the population decline. If in European countries this is primarily a reduction in the birth rate, then in Russia high mortality from various factors is added to this - illnesses, accidents, crimes against. To the first type the crisis and the second is adjacent - the aging of the population while maintaining its size. A similar situation can be seen in Japan, where the number of citizens remains fairly stable for many years, but their average age is . Subsequently, this the crisis can also translate into population decline due to natural mortality among the elderly. The third type of demographic the crisis a is a sharp increase in the population. It is typical for developing countries - India, African countries, China, the Middle East. In this case, already an excess of the young population creates various problems. There is unemployment, lack of natural resources up to famine and, as a result, political instability, which further aggravates the situation. The way out of this kind the crisis ov can be considered a well-thought-out demographic policy of the state. The known when she bore fruit. For example, China has been able to reduce, with rather strict measures, although it is still above the reproduction level. The situation is reversed in France, where, thanks to the system of social assistance and a developed network of public preschool institutions, it was possible to keep the birth rate at the required level. Now it is one of the few European countries where there is an increase in the indigenous population.

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In science, for a long time there has been a discussion of such an important and serious problem as population explosion. Scientists are seriously concerned about its consequences. There is a debate in society about the possibilities of eliminating its causes and results.

A population explosion is a sudden surge in population growth. This process is mainly due to a decrease in mortality and an increase in the birth rate in the world.

At the end of the XVII century. The growth rate of the world's population has almost doubled, which was due to a number of factors. First, it is connected with the development of industry. Secondly, the demographic explosion of socio-economic changes that allowed women to work on an equal basis with men. Thirdly, the mortality rate has dropped sharply.

Now the population explosion is almost imperceptible, because the population growth rate is significantly reduced compared to the 1960s, which are the best indicators, but, nevertheless, the threat of overpopulation remains. This is especially true for Africa (such as Nigeria, Angola and others), where demographic growth is still extremely high. In addition, some countries, such as China, have had to resort to harsh measures. Families with one child enjoy various benefits, and spouses with two or more must pay, the amount of which depends on income and place of residence.

One problem was the reluctance of many residents to take family planning seriously. This is largely due to the world's religions, which adhere to a conservative position regarding children. The consequences of a population explosion can be terrifying: the decline of the global economy, poverty, hunger and the depletion of all the planet's resources available to mankind.

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Demography is a science that measures the population of the world and identifies trends in its change. To make it easier to comprehend the data, their visualization is used: a graph of changes in the population is built. This graph is called the demographic curve.

Instruction

The demographic curve is formed by adding two components: population growth and population decline. An increase is positive and a decrease is negative. The curve can change according to various laws. If the population is constantly decreasing, then it tends to go down, then it is called descending. And if the population increases, then it goes up - this is an upward curve.

Population growth rates vary quite significantly from era to era. They are associated, as a rule, with the general well-being of mankind, which depends on technology. For hundreds and thousands of years, science has slowly and gradually progressed, followed by the growth of the population of the planet. An explosive jump in the standard of living occurred at the beginning of the 20th century, it was then that the level of the population jumped up very strongly. Then followed two, which not only claimed a huge number of human lives, but also stopped population growth in developed countries.

At present, natural population growth in countries with a high standard of living, oddly enough, is not too high. Moreover, if we compare it with the mortality rate, it turns out that the curve is descending, that is, the population naturally decreases. It is possible to maintain it at the proper level with the help of immigrants from others, but this method of increasing the population has a number of disadvantages, so it is kept under control and not used too actively.

The demographic crisis in the modern world *

V.P. MAKSAKOVSKY

The economically developed countries of the world, as already noted, have long passed the second phase of the demographic transition and have entered its third phase, which is characterized by a decrease in natural increase population. Until recently, there were almost no very significant differences in this respect between them. Recently, however, this group of countries has also become quite differentiated, and now this group can also be divided into three subgroups.

Table 1
European countries with negative natural population growth

IN first subgroup includes countries where a fairly favorable demographic situation is still preserved, which is characterized by at least average birth rates and natural growth, ensuring an expanded reproduction of the population. The United States can serve as an example of a country of this kind, where the reproduction formula (birth rate - death rate = natural increase) at the end of the 90s remained at the level of 15‰ - 9‰ = 6‰. Accordingly, the average annual population growth was 0.6%. This subgroup includes Canada, France, the Netherlands, Norway, Ireland, Switzerland, where the average annual population growth was at least 0.3-0.5%. At this rate of growth, doubling of the population in these countries can be expected in 100-200 years, or even more (in Switzerland - in 250 years).

Co. second subgroup it is necessary to include countries in which, in fact, expanded reproduction of the population is no longer ensured. These include mainly European countries, where the total fertility rate fell to 1.5 in the mid-1990s. Some of these countries (for example, Poland) still have a minimal excess of births over deaths. Others, of which there are many more, have become countries with zero population growth. These are Austria, Belgium, Spain, Portugal, Denmark, Croatia, Ireland.

Finally, third subgroup unites countries with negative natural growth population, or, more simply, with its natural decline (depopulation). The total fertility rate in this group of countries is also extremely low. The number of such countries with "minus" population growth only in 1990-2000. increased from 3 to 15. All of them are located in Europe (Table 1).

It will not be a mistake to assert that the countries of the third (and in fact the second) subgroup have already entered the demographic crisis, which was brought to life by a complex of interrelated causes. First of all, they include a rapid, and sometimes downright landslide decline in the birth rate, which leads to a decrease in the proportion of young people in the population. Demographers call this phenomenon aging from below. Further, the increase in the average life expectancy of people in conditions of an increasing level of material well-being also led to a faster than expected increase in the proportion of older (“non-reproducing”) people in the population, that is, as they say, to aging top.

table 2
Population dynamics and its natural movement in Russia

However, it would be wrong to try to explain the onset of the crisis only by demographic reasons. Its occurrence was also influenced by many socio-economic, psychological, medical-social, moral factors that caused, in particular, such a phenomenon as family crisis. The average family size in the countries of the second and third subgroups in Lately decreased to 2.2-3 people. Yes, and it has become much less stable - with an increase in the number of divorces, the widespread practice of cohabitation without marriage, a sharp increase in the number of illegitimate children.

If at the beginning of the 60s the number of divorces per 1000 marriages in the countries of foreign Europe ranged from 100 to 200, then at the end of the 90s it increased to 200-300. Even more egregious data on illegitimate children, the proportion of which has increased by 5-10 times over the same time. In Great Britain and France, for example, the proportion of illegitimate children exceeds 30%. It is even higher in Denmark - 40%. But the "absolute champions" in this regard were and remain Sweden, Norway and Iceland with a figure of over 50%.

All these causes and factors in the countries listed in Table. 2 are combined in different ways. So, in Germany and Italy, apparently, the influence of demographic factors really prevails. In the post-socialist countries of Central and Eastern Europe (Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, etc.), the fact that in the 1990s they had to go through a rather painful stage of reforming their political system and transitioning from a command-planned to a market economy had an effect. The same applies to Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. And in the CIS member countries (Russia, Ukraine, Belarus), the natural deterioration of the demographic situation coincided with the deep political and socio-economic crisis of the 1990s.

As for Russia, in the twentieth century. with the demographic situation, it can be said that she was not lucky. The first phase of the demographic transition ended in it by the beginning of the 20th century, but a real population explosion did not follow. Moreover, over the course of half a century, Russia experienced three demographic crises: during the First World War and the Civil War, during the years of collectivization of the countryside and severe famine, and, finally, during the Great Patriotic War. In the 60-80s, the demographic situation in the country as a whole stabilized. However, in the 1990s, a new, and especially strong, demographic crisis erupted (Table 2).

From the data in Table. 2 it follows that in the 1970s and early 1980s the demographic situation in Russia was relatively favorable. Thus, in 1983, 2.5 million children were born in the RSFSR. Then the beginning of perestroika and the fight against alcohol abuse had a beneficial effect on the birth rate and natural population growth. However, with the onset of the socio-economic crisis of the 1990s, the demographic situation deteriorated sharply. Since 1992, Russia has experienced an absolute population decline. It can be added that in the RSFSR in 1988 there were 2 more children per woman (in the USSR as a whole - 2.2 children), and by the end of the 90s, the fertility of women in the country decreased to 1.24 children, while for sustained population growth needs more than two. According to available forecasts, the population of Russia will continue to decrease in the first decades of the 21st century, when the small generation born in the 1990s will enter adulthood, and the largest generation born in the 1950s will leave the working age. As a result, by 2015 the number of inhabitants in Russia may decrease to 138 million people.

Apparently, both demographic extremes - the explosion and the crisis - have both their advantages and disadvantages. Therefore, some scientists put forward the concept of a demographic optimum, which, with a single interpretation for different regions and countries, can be quantitatively different.

* Essay from the forthcoming book "The Geographical Picture of the World". - Note. ed.

1. TR Malthus as the founder of the science of population growth.

The years of the life of Thomas Malthus: 1766-1834 He was an English clergyman, then professor of modern history and political economy at East India Company College. His main book, An Essay on the Law of Population, or an Account of the Past and Present Operation of this Law on the Welfare of the Human Race, was written in 1789.

Malthus argued that the world's food production is growing in arithmetic progression (1,2,3,4,5...), while the population of the Earth - in geometric (1,2,4,8,16...). This will inevitably lead to a situation where most people will face the threat of starvation. Only the strongest and most cruel can survive in such conditions. These ideas inspired Darwin and Wallace to create a theory in biology about the struggle for survival. So that people can avoid poverty and starvation, epidemics and wars for a piece of bread, Malthus proposed the following measures to solve the problem of overpopulation:

· abstaining from early marriages,

· prevention of too large family growth,

· refusal to marry low-income people,

· observance of strict moral standards before marriage,

· rejection of programs of social assistance to the poor.

However, he opposed birth control, believing that if married couples could easily limit the number of children, the primary incentive for socio-economic progress would be lost: people would lead an idle lifestyle and society would stagnate. Subsequently, the idea of ​​birth control as a means of combating disproportionate population growth began to play a major role in the concept of so-called neo-Malthusianism.

In the social hierarchy, people are arranged according to the principle of the fittest, that is, the elite are the fittest people, the mob are the least fit people.

2. Demography.

Demography is the science of the size, composition and change of population. In recent years, Russia's population has been declining at a catastrophic pace. Because of this, schools, kindergartens and nurseries began to close. Most people blame it economic crisis, but the example of Western countries shows that economic prosperity does not always lead to higher birth rates. Population growth rates are among the most dramatic indicators:

· 1 million years ago, the population of the whole world was only about 125,000 people,

· 300,000 years ago - 1 million people,

· by Christmas - 285 million people,

· in 1930 - 2 billion people,

· in 1960 - 3 billion people,

· by early 2009, the world's population was 6.6 billion people.

The main causes of the population explosion: The population explosion began in Europe in the 19th century. In the Middle Ages, Europe had high birth and death rates, many children were born, but they could not be treated, and a large proportion of children died from epidemics and famine, so population growth was minimal. For example, Peter 1 had 14 children from two wives, of which only 3 survived. In modern times, the birth rate remained high, but medical care improved and welfare increased. This was the cause of the population explosion during the period of industrialization.

The reasons for the decline in the birth rate in modern developed countries: In the 20th century births and deaths in Russia, Europe and North America have declined, so population growth has again become minimal, the population of some countries even began to decline. This is especially dangerous against the backdrop of a population explosion in Asia, Africa and Latin America. This demographic situation inevitably leads to migration or even invasion of the population from Asia, Africa and Latin America to Europe, North America and Russia. The first harbinger of such an invasion was Islamic global terrorism, the war in Chechnya, American operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. There are predictions about the possibility of a Third World War by the West against the Islamic states. Russia is on the border of a population explosion, on the southern borders of Russia there are countries with high population growth rates - China and Islamic countries. In China, they are trying to combat excessive population growth with taxes on the second child, which has led to the emergence of "underground", unregistered children. In Russia, there was a population explosion in the 19th century. - early 20th century But the population growth resulting from this explosion was destroyed in the course of the terrible historical cataclysms that befell the Russian people in the 20th century. The Soviet Union had demographic problems in the late 1950s as a result of World War II, as very few children were born during the war and many men died during the war. Today, many Russian people migrate from neighboring countries to Russia. In ancient times, an example of migration was the great migration of peoples - the Huns, Avars, Goths, Suebi, Vandals, Burgundians, Franks, Angles, Saxons, Lombards, Slavs in the 4th-7th centuries AD. In the 7th-9th centuries AD. there was a migration of Arabs, Normans, Proto-Bulgarians, Magyars. Migration from Europe to the United States was especially intense in the 19th and 20th centuries.

3. Other reasons for the decline and increase in the birth rate in the global world.

More boys are born than girls, but men die at an earlier age than women. The small number of adolescents leads to a labor shortage. Urban dwellers have fewer children than rural dwellers, because for rural dwellers many children mean many labor subsidiary farm. Highly educated women have few children, as they are forced to spend time primarily on education and career during the childbearing period of their lives. Before deciding to have a child, parents make a calculation of the possible costs and their income. In a large family, parents oppose their children receiving a high level of education. Many children die before the age of one year, because they have not developed enough immunity to diseases. The mortality rate is affected by sanitary conditions (quality of drinking water and so on), the quality of medical care, the quality of nutrition.

4.Modern demographic crisis and depopulation in Russia.

At the end of 2009, the population of Russia amounted to 141 million 927 thousand people. Population growth in the country has stopped since 1991, the birth rate in the RSFSR fell below the level of simple replacement of generations back in the 1960s. Today, the death rate is 1.5 times higher than the birth rate, the population is declining by several hundred thousand people annually. A negative feature of Russia is the fact that the birth rate has fallen to the level of developed countries, while the death rate has remained at the level of developing countries. Alcohol mortality in modern Russia (600-700 thousand people per year) is associated with the world's highest level of consumption of legal and illegal (surrogate) alcoholic beverages. Population decline is somewhat stifled by immigration - primarily ethnic Russians and Russian-speakers from Kazakhstan, Central Asia and Transcaucasia - but to date, these reserves are declining due to inflexible immigration policies. By 2050, Russia's population is estimated to be between 83 and 115 million people According to the 2002 Population Census, the population of Russia fell by 1.8 million from 1989 to 2002. Every minute 3 people are born in Russia, and 4 die. The global trend is opposite: the ratio of births to deaths is 2.6. Mortality is especially high among Russian men, whose average life expectancy is 61.4 years. The life expectancy of women is 73.9 years. According to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Zhukov at a government meeting on February 17, 2010, the increase in the average life expectancy of the Russian population has been going on for several years. In 2009, this figure increased by more than one year (1.2 years) and averaged over 69 years for both men and women. In 2009, 1.764 million children were born in the Russian Federation, which is 50 thousand or almost 3% more than in 2008, while the number of deaths decreased by 62 thousand or 3%. According to Zhukov, the natural population decline has decreased by more than 30% compared to the level of 2008. "For the first time in 19 years, we are seeing a natural increase in the population in the Urals and Siberian federal districts," the Deputy Prime Minister said. He also said that, according to preliminary data, at the end of the year, the population of Russia, taking into account migration, increased for the first time in 15 years.

5.Mortality and life expectancy in Russia.

6.Fertility.

The birth rate in Russia does not reach the level necessary for simple reproduction of the population. The birth rate is 1.32 (number of children per woman), while simple reproduction of the population requires a birth rate of 2.11-2.15. At the beginning of the 20th century, Russia had the highest birth rate in Europe. The most rapid decline in the birth rate occurred in the 1930s and 1940s. By 1965, the birth rate in the RSFSR had fallen below the level of simple generational reproduction. In the 1980s, there was an increase in the birth rate, due to measures public policy. In the late 1980s, the birth rate began to decline again. Against the background of an increase in mortality, a demographic decline arose (mortality is greater than the birth rate). Regional differences in fertility are gradually smoothing out. If in the 1960s the total fertility rate was 1.4 in Moscow and 5 in Dagestan, by now this figure has hardly changed in Moscow, and in Dagestan it has fallen to 2.13.

7.Migration situation in Russia.

Russia is in second place in the world (after the United States) in terms of the number of legal and illegal immigrants. There are more than 13 million of them in Russia. - 9% of the population. In 2006, a law was passed that greatly simplifies labor migration. One of the factors worsening the demographic situation is the illegal trade in young women of childbearing age. According to some estimates, hundreds of thousands of women were taken abroad by deceit, but the state practically does not combat this phenomenon.

There are two opposing points of view on attracting immigrants:

· Attracting migrants will increase competitiveness Russian economy through cheaper labor. To maintain numbers

population at one level, it is necessary to attract at least 700 thousand immigrants per year, and to maintain the working-age population - at least 1 million per year.

· Attracting unskilled migrants does not increase the production of goods. The economic growth in the long run may

take place only by increasing labor productivity - that is, by increasing qualifications and wages, and not by reducing them.

Often, among the demographic threats to the security of Russia, a possible “quiet expansion” from the densely populated China in relation to the Far East is mentioned, followed by the rejection of this territory according to the “Kosovo scenario”, while for proof, population densities of the Far East and China differ by dozens of times. However, in China, due to the unfavorable climate, the population density decreases from the central provinces to the north and northeast, and the border regions of Russia are often even more densely populated than the neighboring counties of China. From this we can conclude that the Russian Far East is not an overly attractive target for immigration. On the Far East today there are between 30,000 and 200,000 Chinese, which is not enough for "demographic expansion." At the same time, the proportion of young people among the population is rapidly declining in China.

8. State demographic policy.

In 1944, awards to mothers of many children were established in Russia - "Mother - Heroine" and "Maternal Glory". In 1952, a two-week maternity leave. At the same time, it was during Stalin's time that the birth rate fell the most. From 1925 to 2000, the total fertility rate in Russia decreased by 5.59 children per woman (from 6.80 to 1.21). Of these, 3.97 children, or 71% of the total decline, occurred in 1925-1955 - the “Stalin era”.

In 2001, the "Concept of demographic development" was adopted Russian Federation for the period up to 2015". In 2007, a new "Concept of the demographic policy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025" was adopted. In Russia, small state payments are made at the birth of a child, as well as assistance for the maintenance of a child to low-income families. In a 2006 address to the Federal Assembly, President Vladimir Putin formulated a number of measures to stimulate the birth rate, including large payments for the birth of a second child. The corresponding law on "maternity capital", which allows you to receive 250 thousand rubles. through participation in mortgages, tuition fees and an increase in retirement savings has been in operation since 2007. Left political forces use the demographic problem to accuse the government of pursuing an "anti-popular policy" and consider it necessary to dramatically increase state assistance for the birth of a child. Opponents of this view cite data showing that the birth rate in a country does not depend on social benefits in that country. For example, in Sweden social payments much more than in the United States, while the birth rate there is lower (when compared with developing countries, where social benefits are almost non-existent and the birth rate is huge, the difference is even more noticeable). From this, it is concluded that an increase in payments in Russia will not lead to an increase in the birth rate. Attempts to financially stimulate the birth rate evoke a response either from marginal groups of the population, or from representatives of ethnic groups that already form large families; for the middle class, this is not a serious motivation.

Appendix to §37.

Results of the All-Russian Population Census of Russia in 2002

It found that between the last two censuses, from 1989 to 2002, the population of Russia decreased by 1.8 million people to 145.2 million. The national population structure: the number of Russians - 115.9 million, or 79, 8% of the total population, Tatars - 5.6 million, or 3.8%), Ukrainians - 2.9 million, 2%, Bashkirs - 1.7 million, 1.2%), Chuvash - 1, 6 million, 1.1%, Chechens - 1.4 million, 0.9%, Armenians - 1.1 million, 0.8%. The number of Muslim peoples amounted to 14.5 million (10% of the population), Christian - 129 million (89%). After the census, the share of Russians decreased from 81.5% to 79.8%.

73% of Russians are urban residents, 27% are rural. Moreover, a large proportion of the urban population is concentrated in large cities. One third of the population of Russia is concentrated in largest cities- "millionaires" (13 cities): in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg, Nizhny Novgorod, Samara, Omsk, Kazan, Chelyabinsk, Rostov-on-Don, Ufa, Volgograd, Perm. Moscow is one of the 20 largest cities in the world. Fertility parameters of urban and rural population are getting closer. The 2002 census recorded a significant excess of the number of women compared to the number of men, which amounted to 10 million people. The ratio of men and women according to the 2002 census in Russia was 53.4% ​​of women and 46.6% of men.

The census recorded an excess of the number of elderly people over the number of children:

18.1% of the population are children

61.3% - working age population

20.5% are older than working age.

Global demographic crises and trends of the 20th century: World War I (1914-1918), Civil War (1917-1922), famine in the USSR (1932-1933), period of collectivization and mass repressions (1930-1953), World War II, deportations peoples, post-war famine, economic crisis of the 1990s. According to demographer Anatoly Vishnevsky, Russia's total direct and indirect demographic losses in the 20th century as a result of wars, famines, repressions, economic and social upheavals are estimated at 140-150 million people. Without all these losses, the population of Russia by the end of the 20th century would have been twice as large as it actually turned out to be. The last demographic crisis has been going on for more than 10 years, and, despite the absence of wars and repressions, the birth rate remains at an extremely low level, although recently it has been growing quite steadily (but, however, at a rather slow pace). Similar 10-year periods of sharp decline in fertility were observed in almost all developed countries, except Israel. This crisis is explained by the overexploitation of the population, in a developed market society; at the same time, the emerging shortage of labor resources is covered by migration and the transfer of production to demographically prosperous countries. The period of the demographic crisis completely coincides with the periods of "shock therapy" in all European countries of the former socialist camp.

During the 20th century Russia's population is aging. When compared with other countries with low fertility, it turns out that Russia's population is not the oldest. In 1990, it ranked 25th among such countries (a more dramatic position in Japan, Italy, Germany). Currently, the proportion of people aged 65 years and older in the population of Russia is 13%. According to the UN scale, the population is considered old if the proportion of this age exceeds 7%. Compared with the 1989 census, the average age of the country's inhabitants increased by 4.3 years and amounted to 37.1 years. Population aging in the near future may adversely affect the development of the country's economy and creates a financing problem pension system. Some officials are now proposing to raise the retirement age for people. But such a decision of the government can cause an explosion of discontent among the population.

Questions for reflection.

1. Which of the two opposing points of view on attracting migrants do you think is more correct?

2. In your opinion, is Chinese migration dangerous for Russia?

3. In your opinion, is it necessary to increase state benefits for the birth of a child?

4. Do you think the retirement age should be increased?

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Plan

Introduction

1. Demographic situation in developed countries, government policy

2. Practical task

Conclusion

Bibliography

Introduction

This paper proposes for consideration the issue of the demographic situation prevailing in developed countries, as well as the policies pursued by states.

As a practical task, it is proposed Comparative characteristics two economic regions of Russia - Central Russia and Northwestern Russia according to the following criteria:

Territory size;

Natural resources;

Population;

economy;

Agro-industrial complex;

Transport.

1. Demographicsituationindevelopedcountries,ongoingstatepolitics

The most dangerous demographic threat to the demographic situation in the world is a sharp decline in the population in developed countries. This global negative trend will be of the most significant importance for the world community. An impending demographic crisis, caused by a fairly rapid aging of the population without compensation by newborns, is predicted for the following countries:

EU countries;

China (it is necessary to make a reservation that this threat will reach a significant indicator only at the turn of 2030-2035, and then only if the current actions of the Chinese leadership in the framework of the policy to stimulate the birth rate do not give any significant effect);

Figure 2.1 - Negative trends in the future world population (million people)

Figure 2.2 - World population (billion people)

It becomes obvious that the possession of the key and most valuable resource for the development of the world community - a large population of working age - will be the monopoly of developing countries. Even low quality, in terms of the criterion of "professional qualifications" (despite the fact that this negative can be quickly eliminated), of the specified resource in the group of countries with low level income does not devalue its significance and value.

The most important thing is that the owners of the resource will not be able to raise the income level of the specified population and provide normal functioning conditions within their national borders. Thus, social dissatisfaction will provoke the “exit” of this human wave. The scenario of the cessation of world population growth will not change the status of developing countries as "monopolists of human capital".

The downward trend in the number of children in the family has affected almost all industrialized countries.

Figure 2.3 - Number of children in a family (per woman)

Figure 2.4 - Projected annual change in population (until 2020), %

Over the last quarter of the 20th century, the United Nations Secretariat has repeatedly polled the governments of all the world's UN member states about their attitudes towards the demographic situation in their countries: how governments assess the conformity of various demographic processes with the interests of their countries and whether they consider it necessary to pursue policies aimed at preserving or changing the status quo.

Judgments about the main trends in changing positions of governments are made on the basis of an analysis of the responses to UN questionnaires, carried out by an employee of the UN Population Division, Anatoly ZUBANOV, and presented at an expert meeting organized by this Division on the topic "Policy response to population aging and decline" (New York, 16- October 18, 2000).

Particular attention in this analysis was given to countries with low fertility. Even in these countries, the same or, in any case, similar processes are often assessed differently by both public opinion and state institutions. And depending on these assessments, different attitudes of governments to the demographic realities in their countries are formed, their views on whether or not it is necessary to pursue a special policy aimed at changing or maintaining the situation in the demographic area, on possible and acceptable measures of such a policy.

As you know, there are countries in the world where the population is growing very quickly, and countries where, on the contrary, it is growing slowly, or even decreasing altogether. Dissatisfaction is felt by governments in both groups of countries. In all the years in which their relationship to population growth rates was ascertained, less than half of the responding governments considered their country's population growth situation to be satisfactory (see table 2.1).

Table 2.1 - Opinions of governments on population growth rates (1974-1999), as a percentage of the total number of responding countries

The proportion of governments dissatisfied with population growth is especially high in the less developed regions of the world. Here, governments are mainly concerned about high population growth. As for the more developed countries, on the contrary, they are concerned about too low growth rates, but this concern was expressed in 1999 by only 35% of the governments that responded to UN questions, and in 1993 there were only 12.5% ​​of them, while the proportion of those who are satisfied all the time remains quite high.

A sharp change in views on population dynamics between 1993 and 1999 in developed regions was provided primarily by the countries of Eastern Europe and former USSR. At present, all the countries of Eastern Europe (except the Czech Republic) and two-thirds of the countries that were recently republics of the USSR consider their population growth rates to be too low. The rates in these countries are indeed among the lowest, in most cases there is a population decline. Of the rest of Europe, only Greece, Portugal and Austria rate their population growth as too low. If we talk about the eight major industrial countries ah, in 1999, only the Russian government considered the growth rate of its population to be unsatisfactory (see table 2.2).

Table 2.2 - Estimate of the growth rate of their population by the governments of 8 developed countries (1974 - 1999)

High or low population growth rates are primarily due to the birth rate. It is not surprising that governments, dissatisfied with the rate of population growth, are also concerned about the birth rate in their countries. But often these concerns are expressed by those countries that are satisfied with the growth rate. In the world as a whole, the percentage of governments that consider their own birth rate too low rose from 11% in 1976 to 17% in 1999.

On the example of 8 large countries with low fertility, which also tends to further decline everywhere, it can be seen that government estimates tend to become more and more alarming. If in 1976 only France and Germany rated their birth rate as too low, Russia, the UK, Italy, the US and Japan were satisfied with its level, and South Korea even considered its birth rate too high, then in 1999 already five out of eight countries rated their birth rate as too low (see Table 2.3).

Table 2.3 - Estimation of the birth rate in their countries by the governments of 8 developed countries (1976-1999)

If a country expresses dissatisfaction with its level of fertility, but it is not disturbed by low rates of population growth, then it can be assumed that in this country there is a source of replenishment of the population, other than fertility. This source can only be immigration.

Immigration indeed became a noticeable phenomenon in the last decades of the twentieth century in many countries and helped to maintain population growth rates higher than their established birth rates allowed. But at the same time, concerns about the volume of immigration have been growing all the time in developed countries. In 1976, 17% of the governments of developed countries assessed the level of immigration as very high, in 1999 - already 27%. Within the group of countries with low fertility, 30% (17 countries, including Russia) thought in 1999 that the level of immigration was too high and only 2 countries (Moldova and Ukraine) rated it as too low, the rest recognized this level as satisfactory.

In the world as a whole, there has been an increase in the number of countries in which governments consider it necessary to influence the rate of population growth. But most of this increase has come at the expense of developing countries, where governments are increasingly speaking out in favor of slowing down demographic growth. At the same time, both the number of countries that responded to the UN questionnaire and the share of those countries in which governments considered it necessary to implement a policy of slowing population growth increased (see table 2.4).

Table 2.4 - Policies that governments consider necessary to pursue in their countries with regard to population growth rates (1974-1999), as a percentage of the total number of responding countries

In developed countries with low population growth rates, the situation is somewhat different. Here the number of supporters of non-interference was clearly growing. True, in the 1990s there was a slight increase in the number of countries from more developed regions (from 16% in 1993 to 23% in 1999) that spoke in favor of a policy aimed at increasing population growth rates. Russia and most other countries of Eastern Europe, Slovenia, Croatia, as well as Armenia and Kazakhstan, have proclaimed a policy aimed at changing the existing demographic situation, preventing population decline.

At the same time, the proportion of states declaring the need to increase population growth rates is smaller than the proportion of states that consider these rates to be too low. Some Western countries in the 1990s, in contrast to the former socialist countries of Europe, switched from a policy of stimulating population growth to a policy of hands-off. A characteristic example is France, which has long been known for the active position of the state in relation to demographic processes. Filling out UN questionnaires in 1976, 1983 and 1993, her government replied that it was pursuing a policy of increasing population growth and fertility, and in 1999 announced a position of non-intervention in the situation.

Among the 8 large industrial countries, only Russia now declares, as it did in the 1970s and 1980s (but not in the first half of the 1990s), a policy aimed at increasing population growth rates (see Table 2.5 ).

Table 2.5 - Policies regarding the rate of population growth, which are considered necessary by the governments of 8 developed countries (1974-1999)

The position of non-intervention extends to the policy of developed countries regarding fertility, and may be dictated precisely by the refusal of most governments to try to increase the birth rate. In this, the situation in developed countries is very different from the situation in the third world, where the main cause of concern is high birth rates.

Against the backdrop of growing concerns about low birth rates, it seems almost paradoxical that the number of governments supporting policies aimed at increasing the birth rate has not only not increased, but even decreased. This can be seen, in particular, in the example of large industrial countries. In 1976, the Russian government announced the need to pursue a policy aimed at maintaining the existing birth rate, the French government hoped to increase it with the help of policy measures, and the government South Korea- downgrades. By 1999, the number of governments that did not consider it necessary to pursue a policy aimed at changing the birth rate increased from 5 to 7, and only the Russian government declared support for a policy in favor of increasing the birth rate (see Table 2.6).

Table 2.6 - Fertility policy considered necessary by the governments of 8 developed countries (1974-1999)

The declared "non-intervention" of the majority of Western states in fertility issues, the rejection of the policy of influencing growth rates or the age structure of the population does not mean the state's complete self-elimination from the field of demographic policy. Only the refusal to pursue certain quantitative goals is emphasized (which, perhaps, is due to the ineffectiveness of all previous attempts to achieve such goals).

"Government UK not holds politics in areas population in sense active attempts influence on the number population, his age structure or Components her changes, behind exception immigration... It also not expresses opinions which number And structure population desirable for UK. Main his care - this welfare population, although government And keeps track trends demographic development- Solutions about birth children people accept themselves, but a task governments - provide them information And means, to solutions were efficient. IN in particular government provides services on planning families- Government takes into account questions population at development economic And social politicians".

Position governments UK , submitted on the Cairo conferences on population And development 1994 of the year

For countries with low fertility, immigration is an important source of population replenishment. However, they all remain wary of immigration. Countries that accepted foreigners for permanent residence are becoming increasingly selective in relation to immigrants, introducing certain restrictions.

The Commission of the European Union in its 1994 document noted the need to limit the admission of foreigners, justifying this with the economic situation and the situation on the labor market.

In 1999, out of 57 countries with below-replacement fertility rates, only 3 countries (Russia, Moldova, and Singapore) reported having policies to encourage immigration, 46% (26 countries, including most of Eastern and Northern Europe, the United States and Canada) policy of maintaining the existing level of immigration, 32% (18 countries, including Belarus, Slovenia, Greece, France, Germany, etc.) pursue a policy of reducing immigration and 18% (10 countries, in particular, Georgia, Croatia, the Netherlands) do not interfere in this process.

The example of 8 large industrial countries shows that, as a rule, they prefer not to expand legal immigration, which is now quite strictly controlled, and to counteract illegal immigration.

At the same time, in 1999, no country, with the exception of Germany, set the goal of reducing the number of migrants of all types (see table 2.7).

Table 2.7 - Immigration policies considered necessary by the governments of 8 developed countries in 1999

Government statements about migration policy should not be taken too literally. Migration is a subject of intense political debate, and governments formulating their position on immigration always have to look at public opinion. But at the same time, they cannot ignore economic and demographic realities.

The importance of immigration is increasingly recognized in connection with the aging of the population and the need to look for sources of compensation for the declining labor force. Since there is opposition to immigration in many countries, governments, responding to public sentiment, are trying to find solutions to emerging problems, focusing on domestic resources, in particular, increasing labor productivity, flexible working hours, raising the retirement age, encouraging women to become more involved in production.

However, they cannot refuse the migration resource either and are trying to find palliative solutions by expanding selective or temporary immigration.

2. Practicalthe task

population birth rate demographic

Conduct a comparison of the economic regions of Russia (Central Russia and North-Western Russia).

Table 2.1

Conclusion

In this paper, the issue of the demographic situation in developed countries is considered, the official opinion of governments is given. different countries on the subject, the change in that opinion over time, and the policies that governments deem appropriate to deal with the demographic issue.

As part of the practical task, a comparison was made of the economic regions of Russia - Central Russia and North-Western Russia according to the proposed criteria.

Listusedliterature

1. Simonenko,N.N. Economic Geography: Proc. Allowance / N.N. Simonenko, V.N. Simonenko, I.S. Merkusheva, N.N. Onuchin. - 3rd ed. revised and additional - Komsomolsk-on-Amur: GOUVPO "Komsomolsk-on-Amur state. tech. un-t”, 2010. - 105 p.

2. United Nations website URL: http://www.un.org (Accessed: 03/01/2011).

3. Resource of the analytical center of the Investment Programs Foundation URL: http://collaps2031.org (date of access: 24.02.2011).

4. The demographic situation in developed countries through the eyes of their governments. Article on the POLIT.RU portal dated 13.06.2001 URL: http://www.polit.ru/country/2001/06/13/464284.html (accessed 01.03.2011).

Posted on allbest.ru

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