Metals are a long-term investment with a low level of income and a guarantee of safety. Mutual funds - profit and security at the expense of the management company
This article examines the main trends in the upcoming 2014 in relation to private investment. This will help determine the most suitable investment targets with moderate risk and good potential in terms of profitability.
Economic trends of 2014 in Russia: what to expect?
Before carrying money somewhere, you need to understand what is generally going on around in financial sphere... At the moment, the following factors are most significant:
- Stagnation Russian economy and high crisis expectations among the population. The rate of GDP growth slowed down significantly, as did the growth in welfare. The prime minister directly admitted that unemployment may soon rise and we are on the verge of a difficult time. Terrible forecasts of economists. Withdrawal of money from NPF.
- Oil and gas prices are still high, so far without a downward trend.
- Banking crisis in connection with the revocation of licenses from several large banks.
- Europe has recovered somewhat from the financial turmoil of six months ago. The situation in the debtor countries in the EU has stabilized.
- Continuing weakening of the ruble against the bi-currency basket, the dollar and the euro. According to experts, this trend will continue in 2014.
Where to invest in 2014?
Let's make a reservation that these recommendations are relevant for those who, as a result of passing our test "", received advice to focus on instruments with a small amount of risk. If you are planning on using aggressive strategies, then refer to other sources.
Foreign currency deposits
Taking into account the growth of the euro and the dollar, as well as the presence of guarantees on deposits from the state, foreign currency and multicurrency deposits can be considered quite reliable and promising option... Of course, their profitability is limited, but, apparently, sufficient to protect against inflation and "weld" one or two percent from above.
State bank shares
The population urgently transfers money to Sberbank, Rosselkhozbank and VTB. You don't have to panic - reliable financial institutions a lot (see here:), however, you can earn a little on general hysteria: it has become a driver of growth in stock quotes for the above-mentioned state-owned banks. Here, the profitability may already be much higher and this is also quite safe investment: « blue chips»(The most popular stocks) can easily be sold if something goes wrong.
Gold and unallocated metal accounts
It is difficult to consider it as a good decision in the perspective of one year. Although its value has fallen sharply and is far from highs, it must be remembered that in general world economy getting out of the crisis; it concerns primarily Russia. Therefore, there is no reason to expect an explosive rise in prices for the yellow metal. On the other hand, if it is important to protect yourself as much as possible from the big crisis and hyperinflation (which, fortunately, is not yet predicted), you can try. Verdict: precious metals can be considered as one of the options, but we do not recommend it, the situation is too ambiguous.
The following are bad (from our point of view, of course) tools:
- Real estate. The price for it in the Russian Federation is already very high; the crisis is likely to knock down prices.
- Equity mutual funds with an aggressive strategy. During times like these, managing a block of shares is more difficult than usual.
- Bonds. The banking crisis has led to the "freezing" of the money of many legal entities, which can give rise to local defaults.
The easiest and most reliable way to keep money is bank deposit... However, this type of investment is low-yield, because the interest on the deposit does not cover the rate of inflation. Despite this, keeping money in a bank is much safer than under a mattress.
The indisputable advantage of the deposit is the state guarantee, simplicity, affordability and low entry threshold. Therefore, many people prefer this particular investment method.
You can keep money in the bank in rubles, dollars or euros. Economic situation in the world is very unstable, so it is difficult to say which currency is more reliable. Interest on deposits in rubles is higher than in other currencies. However, there is no guarantee that the ruble will retain its position and will not fall in price.
It is better to keep money in the currency in which you will spend it. This will help avoid exchange losses. Money from one currency to another.
For the safety and protection of personal savings from inflation, money can be divided into three parts. For example, keep 50% of your own money in rubles and 25% in dollars and euros. When the exchange rate of one currency decreases and the other currency rises, losses will be compensated. Interest on deposits will bring a small profit. This method will avoid default or crisis.
It is very profitable and reliable to keep money in different currencies. In addition to regular ruble and deposits, banks offer multicurrency deposits. All your money will be kept in one deposit, but in different currencies and in certain proportions. The advantage of such a deposit is the ability to exchange one currency for another without restrictions at any time you wish. At the same time, the difference between the buying and selling rates is less than in the case of an exchange using the usual method at a bank.
You can invest money not only in banknotes, but also in precious metals - gold, platinum, palladium, silver. Banks offer to invest in CHI (depersonalized metal accounts). To make a contribution to the OMS, you need to go to the bank and buy the required amount of grams of metal. Your account will not be credited with rubles, but grams of metal. It is recommended to invest in precious metals for a period of at least one year.
Unit investment funds - mutual funds allow you to invest money in stocks and bonds. The income is higher than that of bank deposits. A low entry threshold makes mutual funds available to anyone. You don't need special knowledge to buy stocks and bonds. The management company is engaged in the investment of funds. You just need to choose which investment fund To invest money.
You can also invest in securities on your own. Price valuable papers on stock market changes every minute. The investor can independently choose where and when to buy certain stocks and bonds. Trading in the stock market can enrich an investor, or it can go bankrupt in one day. Therefore, in order not to lose all the money, it is necessary to have the appropriate education, skills and experience.
The most reliable and promising investment of accumulated funds is real estate. There is always a demand for housing. Having bought an apartment, you can rent it out and earn income. After a few years, you can resell at twice the price. Keep money in a bank deposit only if you are going to buy something. Therefore, all free money should be invested in real estate. Let it be an inexpensive garage or piece of land. As soon as you save up more money, buy a dorm room, then an apartment, and so on. Remember that real estate will be valuable under any circumstances.
When the financial crisis hits, don't try to get all your money back. You may lose part of your accumulated funds. Think and calculate possible risks... During a crisis, you can invest money very profitably. The most important thing is to diversify your investments, use different financial instruments. The right investment reduces the likelihood of losing all your money and generates high returns.
The most profitable investment now - an investment in Russian nationalists, said an economist friend of mine the other day. And what do you think? Share your tips in the comments. But what else did the economist advise me ...
2013 will be remembered for the depreciation of the ruble, stagnation in property prices, the fall in the value of gold and the soaring dollar. 2014 frightens with its uncertainty, someone is waiting financial crisis someone collapse banking system Russia.
1. Diversification. The unambiguously optimal option is risk diversification, i.e. distribution of investments among different financial instruments... Something in real estate, something in precious metals, something in bonds, something in mutual funds etc..
2. Dollar. Despite the dollar skyrocketing in 2013, strategically holding money in dollars is very risky. The USA ceases to be a world power, the internal problems of the USA indicate that the further printing of the dollar will not improve the situation, but will only aggravate it. This means that many countries will begin to abandon the dollar as a settlement currency; in the forex market, a collapse of the dollar can be expected. For example, if Saudi Arabia (for political reasons) abandons its payments for oil in dollars and switches to the euro, the US economy will immediately collapse. So have no reason to keep your money in US currency.
3. Gold. The most unprofitable way of investing in 2013 turned out to be unallocated metal accounts (OMS). Most experts emphasize that the greatest losses of clients were in this area. “Gold this year for the first time in 13 years has shown negative dynamics and fell by almost 29%, and by the end of the year it may fall as much as possible over the past 32 years. Perhaps growth will begin, but perhaps not ...
4. Contributions. Interest rates on deposits are likely to continue their gradual decline, but will remain an attractive and reliable way to save money. Since January 2013 average rate on deposits in the top 10 retail banks decreased on average by 1.8%.
5. Real estate. Investing free money in real estate has been the right option for centuries, since housing always becomes more expensive in price, and in cities it can still be rented out, decently earning additional profit on this. Unfortunately, at the moment, in order to invest in liquid real estate, you need to have a lot of capital. The purchase of an apartment or house can be recommended for preserving capital, rather than increasing it. Since at the moment mortgage rates are high, and the growth in the cost of apartments is questionable, then investing in borrowed funds is a very risky business.
6. Bitcoins. Bitcoins are often referred to as digital currency, virtual currency, or cryptocurrency. Most Americans who do not have a special economic or financial education find it very difficult to understand why this money is needed. However, the fact remains: in the first eleven months of 2013, the value of bitcoins increased from $ 13.50 to $ 1,200 (that is, by more than 5.000%). Thus, several thousand people in the shortest possible time became millionaires. The fact remains, although a very high-risk investment ...
I spoke about the process of dollarization of operations of Russian banks in the field of cashless money turnover... It was said that in 2014, in this area, the move away from the ruble into dollars and other foreign currencies sharply intensified compared to the period of 2009-2013.
Now about dollarization in cash money circulation... Strictly speaking, cash foreign currency in monetary circulation, Russia should not be at all. Let's read article 75 of the Constitution again Russian Federation: “The monetary unit in the Russian Federation is the ruble. Monetary emission is carried out exclusively The central bank Russian Federation. The introduction and issue of other money in the Russian Federation is not allowed. " As for the "emission of other money", it really does not exist on the territory of Russia. Sometimes, however, “financial Kulibins” appear on the ground, trying to issue so-called “local money” (in order to at least partially compensate for the monetary deficit artificially created by the Bank of Russia), but the Central Bank and the Prosecutor's Office quickly suppress such attempts. But the phrase "introduction of other money", from my point of view, means that such "other money" as the US dollar, euro, British pounds sterling, Swiss francs and other foreign "tugriks" are not allowed to circulate on the territory of Russia. But they have been circulating in our country since the adoption of the Constitution of the Russian Federation, even since the moment of the formation of the Russian Federation. For some reason, neither the Bank of Russia, nor the Prosecutor's Office, nor the Constitutional Court want to notice this. By the way, does not pay attention to this fact and federal Service security, and the Security Council. Although in any textbook (according to financial law, economy, banking) it is written in black and white: the national monetary unit is the most important element of the country's national sovereignty. Replacing it with others monetary units(foreign currencies) threatens the security of the state. About it small print in footnotes and notes it is even written in some publications of the International Monetary Fund.
The presence of a cash dollar (as well as other foreign currencies) on the territory of Russia is a "medical fact" that does not even need to be proved to homeless people, schoolchildren and residents of psychiatric hospitals. How much of this cash currency on the territory of Russia, no one knows for sure. Even the Chairman of the Bank of Russia, Mrs. Nabiullina, the Minister of Finance, Mr. Siluanov, and the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin. Our cash circulation resembles a pool into which foreign currency flows from several pipes at once. And it also flows out of several pipes. The first important channel of inflow and outflow is foreign currency exchange (purchase and sale) points. The second important channel is banks that accept cash currency into deposit and other accounts, and at the same time issue cash currency from accounts. The third important channel is smuggling, i.e. unaccounted for import and export of cash currency from the country. If there is an accounting for the first two channels (it is kept commercial banks and the Bank of Russia), then the third channel is terra incognita. You can only make expert "guesses".
It is believed that we have already survived the main dollarization nightmare. Its apogee fell on the 90s of the last century and the beginning of the "zero" years. Many experts agree that during the 1990s and 2000s, Russians became the world's largest holder of cash dollars (not counting the United States). According to the US Treasury, at the beginning of 2000 Russia had 60 billion dollars of "green paper" - more than 40% of the exported mass of US dollars in cash across the surveyed circle of countries (25 countries) and more than 10% of the total mass of dollars in circulation (including cash in circulation in the United States). Then Russia was followed by the volume of “green paper” (billion dollars): Argentina - 25; Korea - 15; Turkey - 10 (The Use and Counterfeiting of United States Currency Abroad. A Report to the Congress by the Secretary of the Treasury. Wash., 2000). The US Treasury has more than once published its estimates of the US currency circulating outside the country. So, for September 2006 the volume American currency in Russia it was already estimated at $ 80 billion. China and Argentina ranked second or third after Russia with $ 50 billion each (IMF COFER Database, U.S. Treasury, September 2006).
Note that the US Treasury only assessed the amount of cash dollars circulating outside the US. If we also take into account the euro and other foreign currencies, then we can safely say that the total volume of foreign currency in Russia at the end of the 2000s was clearly more than $ 100 billion.
The Bank of Russia estimates the amount of currency in cash in the country. But, from my point of view, they are incomplete, since they estimate the quantity without taking into account the smuggling channel. The real amount of foreign currency, according to experts, is higher than the figures quoted by the Central Bank.
Tab. 1. The amount of foreign currency in cash on the territory of Russia (at the end of the corresponding year)
Source: Bank of Russia
Bank of Russia estimates show that for the seven-year period 2007-2013. the amount of foreign currency in cash fluctuated greatly. A sharp (more than twofold) increase in the currency supply took place in 2008-2009, when we were going through the financial crisis. Then the amount of foreign currency gradually decreased again to the 2007 level.
But at the end of 2013 - beginning of 2014, a reversal began in the Russian currency and money market. In light of the expected economic sanctions, as well as the incipient growth exchange rate dollar (the Fed announced the curtailment of the quantitative easing program), the dollar became again desirable, and the ruble - an unloved stepdaughter.
Balance of operations of Russian banks with foreign currency in cash on the territory of the Russian Federation (billions of dollars) *
* "+" sign means a decrease in the amount of cash in the hands of citizens (equivalent to the inflow of capital into the country). The "-" sign means an increase in cash currency in the hands of citizens (equivalent to the export of capital from the country)
Source: balance of payments of the Russian Federation for the corresponding years.
There is no complete data for 2014 yet. As you can see, over three quarters, the increase in cash reserves in the hands of the population amounted to almost $ 20 billion. October 2014, citizens already had a currency supply equivalent to $ 40 billion. This is already approaching the peak values of 2008-2009. The authorized banks, in anticipation of a significant increase in the demand of the population for cash foreign currency, continued to increase its import into the country. All imported cash foreign currency was sold to the population "on wheels".
The latest available data on cash transactions is for October. The excitement has already begun this month. The population's demand for dollars in October 2014 compared to the previous month increased by 61%, for the European currency - by 32%, amounting to 9.2 billion and 4 billion in dollar terms, respectively. This is stated in the December materials of the Bank of Russia. Share of US dollars in the structure aggregate demand increased to 68% against 64% a month earlier, the share of the European currency decreased from 34% to 30%. The net increase in cash in the hands of the population as a result of various operations of Russian banks amounted to $ 6.6 billion. The peak value of March 2014 ($ 6.8 billion) was almost reached. In October, the literal dollarization of cash circulation began. Citizens began to go into "green paper", and not in euros or pounds, Swiss francs and other exotic currencies. The dollar in the context of the curtailment of the quantitative easing program began to grow by leaps and bounds.
If we proceed from the most conservative estimate that the scope of foreign exchange purchases in November and December was the same as in October, then we will find that net foreign exchange purchases in Q4 should amount to $ 20 billion. Let's add them to the official data of the Bank of Russia for the first three quarters of 2014 and we get a rounded $ 40 billion of net purchases of foreign exchange. This is a record. According to the sources I have, this is an absolute record for all the years of the existence of the Russian Federation. But I think that I am too conservative in my assessments. We have not forgotten what was happening in banks and exchange offices in November and especially December.
In the last decade of December 2014, a number of estimates of the growth of cash reserves of the population, made by very authoritative people, appeared. In an interview with Business FM, the minister economic development RF Aleksey Ulyukaev said that in 2014 the population of Russia bought foreign currency worth $ 30 billion. “There is statistics on how much the population has acquired in cash, by the end of the year it will be about thirty-odd billion dollars. This is about a quarter of the total capital outflow, ”said the head of the Ministry of Economic Development. It is noteworthy that on the eve of the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin said that by the end of 2014, capital outflow from Russia will amount to 120-130 billion dollars. The head of state admitted that this big figure, and also indicated that the withdrawal of capital from the Russian Federation is half explained by exchange transactions that are committed by the Russians. Thus, the president gets a figure of at least $ 60 billion.
A funny and at the same time sad picture. The President and the Minister have two-fold figures. It seems to be "one team"! In this situation (based on the assessments I gave above), I am more inclined to trust the assessment voiced by Putin.
If we add to the $ 20 billion in cash available at the beginning of 2014 the annual growth of $ 60 billion (the figure named by V. Putin), then we get $ 80 billion in cash in the hands of the population at the beginning 2015 year. According to the Bank of Russia, as of December 1, 2014, the cash ruble money supply in the country amounted to about 8 trillion rubles. I think that already in mid-January, when the holidays are over and if our authorities do not take any real measures to save the ruble, the exchange rate will be 60 rubles to 1 US dollar. This means that in foreign currency terms, the ruble money supply will be about $ 130 billion. It turns out that the share of foreign currency in the total amount of cash money supply in Russia at the beginning of this year is in the region of 40%. The only reassuring thing is that in our recent history, the share of foreign exchange has been even higher. At the beginning of the 2000s, it was at the level of 70%. But in 2006 it was already equal to 25.4%; 2007 - 12.6%; 2008 - 26.3 ("Dollarization / Euroization of the Russian economy").
It must be remembered that in addition to cash in foreign currency, our citizens have funds equivalent to 3.971 billion rubles on foreign currency deposits. (data of the Bank of Russia as of December 1, 2014). In dollar terms, we get another 76 billion dollars.Total, the population has currency in the amount of 156 billion dollars in their hands and bank accounts. This is a very powerful resource that can undermine monetary system Russia. Although citizens have Russian passports and many sincerely consider themselves patriots of Russia, however, at the most critical moment, without realizing it, they can deal a fatal blow first to the ruble, and then to their beloved Russia.
Given that many media outlets in Russia are under the tacit control of Russia's geopolitical adversaries, getting citizens to play against the ruble is not so difficult. In April 2014, the Governor of the Bank of Russia E. Nabiullina spoke out very sharply against the initiative of a number of deputies who proposed, back in 2013, to adopt a law banning the circulation and even storage of cash dollars in Russia. She stated: “It is nonsense for the exchangers to disappear. To introduce some kind of restrictions for people is from the realm of fantasy. That would be a huge step backward. " Mrs. Nabiullina is apparently very proud of the fact that Russia has overtaken all the countries of the civilized world in terms of availability of exchangers per 1000 people. This is a clear triumph for monetary liberalism.
However, I agree with her that we do not need a law banning the dollar, but for completely different reasons. Why do we need new law if we have a constitution? I call on our authorities to recall Article 75 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation. And take urgent measures to implement it.
While we are young, we are not very concerned with the question of how to save money. But from the moment of marriage, thoughtless spending comes to an end. Young spouses try to keep the money they earn in order to provide themselves and their future children with decent living conditions. This is where the question arises of where and how best to store them.
There are several ways to store money. One of the most common is to store finances in foreign currency, usually dollars or euros. The method is quite reliable, however, it also has its drawbacks. The slightest fluctuations in the market can lead to a fall in the exchange rate of a foreign currency, as a result, you can lose part of the money invested in it.
You can not buy dollars, but store bills in national currency, that is, in rubles. But in this case, inflation may “eat up” part of the savings. Another option is to invest your savings in precious metals such as gold. This is a completely reliable way of storing money, gold prices are consistently high (although sometimes drops occur), and you can be sure that your savings will be safe and sound for the foreseeable future.
If you want not only to save, but also to increase your savings, then there is only one option - bank deposits... Many are afraid of keeping money in banks, especially in light of recent events. But if you choose the right bank and make a wise deposit, then you can receive interest from your savings, which will outstrip inflation, even taking into account the decrease in interest rates.
Experts recommend giving preference to large banks with an established reputation. A good option- a bank with state participation. Deposit rates above market rates should alert a potential depositor. Adhering to the old folk wisdom, do not store all your eggs in one basket, it is more expedient to make deposits in different banks.
Deposits can be made in mixed currencies. This means that part of the deposit will be kept in euros, the other in dollars and rubles. Depending on the economic situation and taking into account the quotes on the stock exchange, you can regularly change the ratio of currencies. So if you are offered