The size and natural growth of the population of Russia. Summary of the lesson "number and natural population growth" Geography number and natural population growth
ORG. MOMENT.
"The number and natural growth of the population, the ethnic composition of the population of Russia"
There has long been an interest in population in the world. It was necessary to know the size of the labor force, the possibilities for forming an army, collecting taxes, etc. For the first time, the population was counted 4 thousand years ago in the states of the East - Egypt, China, India. Later, the accounting was carried out in Ancient Greece and Ancient rome... Since the beginning of the 19th century, more than 2 thousand censuses have been carried out in the world. Currently, there are no countries in the world (with the exception of Oman and Qatar) that do not have a census. Censuses are conducted in most countries of the world every 10 years, as opposed to population census. Which have the function only to find out the population size.
According to the estimates of statisticians-demographers, over 80 billion people were born on Earth in the entire history of mankind. 140 million people are born in the world every year. Every second there are 3 people, every minute - 175, every hour - 10.4 thousand, every day - 250 thousand new earthlings. Every week on Earth a new Kharkiv or Hamburg is added, every month - the population of a country like Australia or Tunisia.
How do you find out where the data on the population of the countries come from?
The last census in the Russian Federation took place in 2010 Further changes are identified using current accounting, i.e. take into account how many people were born and died in the village (natural movement ), how many arrived or left (mechanical movement ).
It was approximately calculated that in the Russian Federation, on average, 1 person is born every 21 seconds, 1 person dies every 15 seconds, that is, we see that today the mortality rate in the Russian Federation is higher than the birth rate. From here, you can approximately calculate what the population size in the Russian Federation is at any time.
Fertility is the number of births per 1000 inhabitants in a certain period of time, for example, in a year.
Mortality is the number of deaths per 1000 inhabitants over a certain period of time, for example, in a year.
The difference between the number of births and the number of deaths over a certain time is called natural growth (EP = P-S)
The totality of the processes of fertility and mortality, which determines the amount of natural increase (or decrease) of the population, the change of generations, the life expectancy of each generation, is called natural movement, or reproduction of the population's life.
Vital traffic rates are usually calculated per 1000 people.
If the birth rate is lower than the death rate, then the natural increase will be negative, that is, there will be a natural decline in the population, which is typical for today's Russia. This process is called the demographic crisis (Demography is the science of population; crisis is a sharp turn) - this is a sharp decline in the population.
Since the general mortality rate depends not only on the intensity of mortality, but also on the composition of the population, primarily age, in regions with a higher proportion of the population of older ages, this rate is usually higher than in regions where it is lower. Therefore, in the geographical space of Russia, the level of the general mortality rate decreases from the central and northwestern regions, in the population of which there is a large proportion of the elderly, to the southern and eastern regions, where it is still relatively small.
Analysis of the table. Ten regions of Russia with the highest and lowest indicators of the general mortality rate (ACR) in the first half of 2007, deaths per 1000 people
Regions with the lowest GCS | Regions with the highest ACS |
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Russian Federation - 15.0 |
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The Republic of Ingushetia | Pskov region | ||
Chechen Republic | Tver region | ||
Yamalo-Nenets Auth. district | Tula region | ||
The Republic of Dagestan | Novgorod region | ||
Khanty-Mansi Auth. district - Ugra | Smolensk region | ||
Ryazan Oblast | |||
The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) | Ivanovo region | ||
Kabardino-Balkar Republic | Vladimir region | ||
Aginsky Buryat Auth. district | Nizhny Novgorod Region | ||
Kamchatka region | Kursk region |
Highest overall mortality rate in the Central Federal District- in the first half of 2007 it amounted to 16.6 ‰(in 2006 - 17.5 ‰), - and only slightly less in the North-Western Federal District - 16.0 ‰ (17.7 ‰ last year). The Southern Federal District has the lowest overall mortality rate - 12.7 ‰(13.5 ‰). It is slightly higher in the Urals (13.7 ‰ in January-June 2007) and Far Eastern (13.8 ‰) Federal Districts. The Volga and Siberian federal districts occupy an intermediate position - 15.5 and 14.8 ‰, respectively.
What are the main reasons for population decline?
Wars(from 1914 to 1922 during the years of war and revolution, 15 million people died, 1933-34 - 5 million people died of famine, the Second World War 18 million people, the Afghan, Chechen wars). Demographers calculated that with "normal" development, i.e. without losses from wars, repressions, the population of the Russian Federation would have amounted to 270 million (the whole state is practically lost)
Terrorist attacks
Diseases(1st place in mortality is taken by cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, STDs, the first among which is HIV)
Addiction
Car crashes
An increase in the number of elderly people
Declining fertility
What are the reasons for the decline in fertility? (economic crisis in the 90s, uncertainty about the future, family planning, in the early 90s "echo of war")
What do you know about the ethnic composition of the population of Russia?
List the peoples living within our country? (Russians, Tatars, Bashkirs, Germans, Poles, Jews, Koreans, Greeks)
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Slide 1
The size and natural growth of the population of Russia. Isaeva E. A., teacher of geography of the highest category, secondary school №24, the city of Yoshkar-Ola, Republic of Mari El.Slide 2
Purpose: to study the population of Russia and its changes. Demography is a science dealing with population problems and its reproductionSlide 3
Lesson objectives: to study the features of the natural increase in the population of Russia to identify the factors influencing its changes; identify the main socio-economic the consequences of the natural decline in the population of Russia. inSlide 4
Problem statement: Why is the demographic situation for Russia so urgent at the present time? Identify demographic prospects for both the nation as a whole and for Russian statehood... Find countermeasures to the demographic crisis in Russia.Slide 5
The population of Russia and its changes According to the All-Russian population census, conducted on October 9, 2002, the resident population Russian Federation amounted to 145.2 million people. Estimate the dynamics of population change.Slide 6
The number of citizens of the Russian Federation amounted to 142.4 million people (98% of all residents of the country). 1.0 million people have citizenship of other states. 0.4 million people are stateless. Of the total number of citizens of the Russian Federation, 44 thousand people have dual citizenship. Approximately 1.3 million people did not indicate their citizenship. Work according to Table 5, p. 26 2008. CitizenshipSlide 7
Working with the graph: Fig. 8, c26 what trends have been observed in the ratio of the birth and death rate curves since 1927. In what year did a radical change take place in the dynamics of the UHM in Russia? What changes in the ratio of the curves of fertility and mortality have been observed since 1991? Have there been such times in the history of Russia? What are the historical events associated with these changes in the UNED in 1927? and in 1991?Slide 8
The demographic development of our country in the last fifteen years has been on a downward curve: from 1992 to 2007, the population decreased by 3.5 million people. The population decline was recorded in 65 out of 89 constituent entities of the Russian Federation.Slide 9
The trends of demographic reproduction that have formed in Russia largely determine the framework of forecast estimates of the population size, which are carried out by Russian, foreign and international organizations. As an example, there are three estimates of the expected population in a country. Forecasts of the population of Russia until 2050 Census 2010 Forecast options Low Medium High Goskomstat 2015 128.883 134.298 138.364 Institute of International Forecasting 2020 121.983 130.990 137.323 2050 77.165 101.921 122.634 UN forecast (2001) 2020 127.790 129.687 131.532. 2050 96.084 104.258 113.137Slide 10
The forecast of the Institute for Economic Forecasting - the population by the end of 2050 will decrease by 30% and amount to 101.9 million people. The forecast of the Population Division of the UN Secretariat, made for Russia, the population in 2050 will amount to 104.3 million people.Slide 11
If nothing is done, then taking into account the fact that today in Russia 2 times more people die annually than are born, then by 2010 there will be 3 times more deaths, by 2015 - 4 times, by 2019 - 5 times, by 2022 - 7 times, by 2036 - 10 times, and by 2048 - 15 times more. Make a conclusion: Demographic in Russia today is the most serious and urgent problem, which requires an immediate solution.Slide 12
The decline in the population is mainly due to the natural decline in the population. Depopulation is a long-term excess of the number of deaths over the number of births. During the 90s, natural loss in Russia increased from 219.8 thousand in 1992 to 943.3 thousand in 2002. What is happening in a country with a population?Slide 13
Natural population growth E | pr = P - C p.26, item 6-definition The most important factors influencing the change in natural population growth are fertility and mortality. The increase can be: table 6, page 27 1. Positive, if P> C 2. Negative, if PSlide 14
Tasks on the map: 1) In which regions the maximum indicators are marked: Mortality and fertility; 2) In which regions the minimum mortality and fertility rates were observed; 3) What reasons do you explain this?Slide 15
Maximum death rates in most subjects of the European part of Russia Maximum birth rates: B autonomous regions and the Caucasian republics 3) What reasons do you explain this?Slide 16
minimum mortality rates In the autonomous okrugs and the Caucasian republics How can you explain this? Minimum fertility rates in most subjects of the European part of RussiaSlide 17
Topic POPULATION
Number and natural growth
Prepared by: L.M. Zadylyak,
G. Kaliningrad
POPULATION
2. The size and natural growth of the population
Population geography studies the composition, placement, movement, lifestyle
Demography – gr. - people , the science of the laws of reproduction; studies the distribution by sex and age, marriages.
Population size depends on natural and mechanical movement
Natural movement – change in numbers through births and deaths
Mechanical movement (?)
Demographic information serve for the development of demographic policy, planning of labor resources
Population census in Crimean Federal District 2014 was held from 14 to 25 October in connection with the entry of the Republic of Crimea and the federal city of Sevastopol into the Russian Federation.
C - expanded reproduction P = C - simple P - narrowed reproduction? ? ? Natural movement of the population U p. 26 "width =" 640 "
Reproduction - change of generations through births and deaths (in ppm), t. Per 1000 inhabitants
2 types of reproduction
1 - medium and low birth rates, a sharp decrease in mortality, a slowdown in population growth
2 - very high birth rate with decreased mortality, high population growth rates
Natural growth
E etc. = P - C
P S - extended
reproduction
P = C - simple
R - narrowed reproduction
Natural movement of the population
Do page 26
Place in the world... USSR ranked 3rd in the world
As of January 1, 2015, according to Rosstat, there were 146 267 288 permanent residents
10 most big countries world by population(2015)
A place
Country
China
Population
India
date
1,367 ,510,000
1,264, 990,000
% Of World Population
320 ,132,000
Indonesia
252 ,164,800
Brazil
Pakistan
203, 692,000
Nigeria
188 ,611,000
Bangladesh
178 ,517,000
157, 609,000
Russia
146 ,270,033
Japan
127 ,130,000
Checking the item
According to the 2011 UN Population Fund Annual Report, Russia has demographic crisis... The total fertility rate was 1.539.
Almost 60% of all deaths are due to diseases of the cardiovascular system, another 15% - from cancer, about 4% - from respiratory and digestive diseases. In 45% of deaths from respiratory diseases are caused by tobacco smoking. According to experts, the annual mortality from diseases associated with smoking is up to 400 thousand people a year.
Anamorphosis map *
countries of the world by population in 2050
* Anamorphosis- a graphic representation derived from a geographic cards, the scale of objects on which is proportional to the value of their characteristics.
Age-sex pyramids- a graphical representation of the distribution of the population by sex and age, used to characterize age and sex composition of the population.
for 2014
Largest regions by population
Region
The number of all
Moscow
Urban population
Moscow region
Krasnodar region
Rural population
Saint Petersburg
Sverdlovsk region
Rostov region
Rep. Bashkortostan
Republic of Tatarstan
Tyumen region
Chelyabinsk region
Nizhny Novgorod Region
Kaliningrad region
Regions with the smallest populations
Region
The number of all
Tyva Republic
Urban population
Republic of Kalmykia
Altai Republic
Rural population
Jewish Autonomous Region
Magadan Region
Chukotka Autonomous Okrug
Nenets Autonomous District
Sources:
- Textbook. Geography. Population and economy V.P. Dronov.M. Drofa. 2010 Internet maps
- Textbook. Geography. Population and economy V.P. Dronov.M. Drofa. 2010 Internet maps
- Textbook. Geography. Population and economy V.P. Dronov.M. Drofa. 2010 Internet maps
- Textbook. Geography. Population and economy V.P. Dronov.M. Drofa. 2010
- Internet Maps
Number and natural growth of population (2005-2014)
The current estimates of the population size as of January 1 are calculated taking into account the results of the 2005 census, to which the number of births and arrivals to this territory has been added and the number of deaths and those who left this territory for each year has been subtracted. The calculations take into account the increase or decrease in the population of certain territories as a result of changes in their borders, which occurred during the year, as well as changes in the number of urban and rural populations as a result of administrative-territorial transformations, i.e. as a result of a change in the category of settlements (transformation of rural settlements into urban or urban into rural on the basis of legislative acts). Population figures are based on resident population. The permanent population includes persons permanently residing in a given territory, as well as foreign citizens and stateless persons temporarily residing in this territory for more than one year. The distribution of the population into urban and rural is carried out according to the place of residence, while urban settlements are settlements classified in the manner prescribed by law to the category of urban (cities, urban-type settlements, workers and resort villages). The current estimates of the total population at the beginning of 2014 and the average annual number for 2013, after calculating the age and sex structure of the population, can be slightly revised.
Natural population growth - the difference between the number of live births and the number of deaths over a certain period. Natural increase can be positive if the number of births exceeds the number of deaths, or negative (natural decrease) if the number of deaths exceeds the number of births.
Table 5. The number and natural growth of the population (thousand people)
Population (at the beginning of the year), thous. human |
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including: |
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Share in the total population, percent |
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urban |
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rural |
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Natural increase, decrease (-) of the population, thousand people |
Analyzing the main indicator demographic situation of any country, which is the population size and the corresponding natural increase or decrease, we clearly see that the country's population is decreasing, almost every year. At the same time, both the number of women and the number of men are decreasing. Just rural population rushes to the city, due to which the indicators of the latter increase, and the rural population decreases. But the numbers of decline, too, are decreasing, and, hopefully, they will soon take a positive result. Moreover, I would like this result to be improved primarily by increasing the birth rate, reducing mortality, and not by migration.