Will the dollar rise in April. Why the dollar has been declining lately
Dollar forecast for April 2019 table for every day - based on Sberbank data, expert opinions and main trends in the foreign exchange and oil markets.After the brief strengthening of the ruble in February and March, many Russians began to think about how to get rid of dollars and euros. So, the dollar exchange rate April 2019: forecast and main trends to change.
Predicting exchange rate changes American currency, it is worth remembering the reasons for the strengthening of the ruble at the beginning of the year. The first factor is that oil began to grow slightly again, after falling from $47 per barrel last year, it rose to $66. And even though the first quarter of 2019 showed us dances of 69-65, there were still no strong drops.
Accordingly, the dollar fell a little in the first months, but in April it should start to grow a little.
The rise in oil prices and the monetary measures taken by the government, although they strengthened the ruble, they are of little use - no significant growth Russian economy over this period has not demonstrated, moreover, the real sector still cannot recover due to the appreciation of the currency and the increase in the tax burden (and they also want to raise personal income tax to 15%).
Now, in 2019, the factor of the lack of import substitution is more and more visible - foreign machine tools and machines are beginning to become obsolete, they need spare parts, all this is reflected in the cost and price growth. The economy is still in crisis, and it is difficult for it to get out of this hole.
Shares of large enterprises are falling on the news about the expulsion of diplomats from the Russian Federation and the deterioration of the general political situation. Putin's election victory has also not improved the climate for long-term investment - no one knows what he will throw away, so foreigners are in no hurry to pour money into large projects in Russia.
What is now observed in the Russian economy - the consequences of " dutch disease”, caused by the influx of petrodollars and the simultaneous collapse of production, science and other sectors. Therefore, in the coming months, there are no serious trends towards the growth of the ruble and the depreciation of the dollar. The dollar exchange rate in April 2019 may rise slightly to 70-75 rubles, however, there may not be a strong growth. Well-known economists, for example, Stepan Demura, are no longer so pessimistic about the ruble, their forecasts have not come true, but there is nothing to rejoice about yet.
Table by day
If you look at the behavior of Sberbank, take into account the situation with oil and OPEC, take into account seasonal fluctuations and sectoral characteristics of the regional economy, then the fresh dollar forecast for April 2019 in the table by day will be approximately as follows:
As you can see, the dollar may even drop to 66 rubles, but there will be no global reduction in price. Dances will continue on the same positions of 2-3 rubles, but otherwise the situation will be stable.
Also, no one is immune from the next drop in oil. Now there is an overabundance of it on the market, but OPEC has come to a consensus with Iran. Consequently, everything will also remain at about the same level for 1-2 months.
Is it worth buying USD?
Should you buy or sell dollars in April 2019? Selling the US currency is clearly unprofitable now, but the purchase is fully justified as long as the rate has dropped a little. But it is very difficult to predict the moment of the jump, as well as how much the dollar will fall in price in the next 2-3 months. Most likely, in early and mid-April, the rate will drop by a few rubles, and then growth can be expected.
Similar trends await the euro exchange rate for April 2019. So foreign currency is still a good way to invest your own money.
Doubters may ask themselves - when did the dollar become cheaper in Russia? After all, these were very short periods at the peak of oil at 140. Now this will not be guaranteed.
After the collapse of the Russian stock exchange in early April, there was a threat of an instant currency jump. It cannot be excluded.
This was the latest dollar forecast for April 2019, the table shows approximate rates, which are not 100% accurate, but show approximate trends.
The beginning of 2016 was marked by a sharp rise in the value of the US currency against the Russian ruble. Subsequently, the situation stabilized somewhat, and the dollar "rolled back" to the already habitual mark of 75-78 rubles. It is rather difficult to predict the future behavior of the exchange rate: a huge number of external and internal factors affecting its value cannot be analyzed and do not allow drawing reliable conclusions.
Nevertheless, on the eve of spring, one can try to analyze the current situation in economic sphere, and form an approximate forecast of the dollar exchange rate for April 2016.
All forecasts offered by analysts of various agencies and departments are based on the dependence of the dollar exchange rate on the cost of oil on the world market. On March 1, 2016, negotiations between the leaders of oil exporting countries will be completed on the issues of setting the volume of production of raw materials at a fixed level.
According to Forex Club analyst I. Rogovoi, the likelihood that such an agreement will be reached is extremely small. Iran plans to increase the amount of oil produced, Saudi Arabia also does not seek to reduce the already existing volumes of supplies of raw materials to the world market.
That is why the probability of an increase in the cost of a barrel of "black gold" and, as a result, the growth of the Russian ruble in April 2016 is not necessary. The second factor that may influence the fluctuation of the dollar in early spring will be the meeting of the Bank of Russia on monetary policy. This activity will set the value key rate, which affects not only exchange rates, but also on the size of the interest rate on bank loans and contributions offered to the public. However, according to the expert, the current value of the key rate is unlikely to change following the meeting.
The key rate determined by the US Federal Reserve also has a significant impact on . On March 15-16, a regular meeting is expected to be held, at which the issue of a possible change in it will be considered, although the likelihood of an appropriate decision on this issue is extremely small.
Based on the above factors, I. Rogova concludes that the dollar exchange rate in April 2016 will be fixed at around 73 rubles.
Most Russian analysts and experts indicate in their forecasts the value of the dollar exchange rate close to this mark. A favorable factor influencing the stabilization of the ruble exchange rate is the achievement of a number of agreements to resolve the Syrian conflict between Russia and the United States. At the same time, some pressure on the ruble was exerted by the statement of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation that, provided that current oil prices remain unchanged, the country's budget will miss the planned financial receipts in the amount of 1.5 trillion rubles.
The head of the Central Bank E. Nabiullina believes that at present the ruble has reached its fundamental value, and will be fixed at this level for a long time. Analysts of APEKON expect the US currency to rise to the level of 80-82 rubles; Danske Bank experts share the same opinion. Barclays assumes that the dollar exchange rate will be fixed at around 76 rubles.
Nomura analyst D. Petrov gives perhaps the most optimistic forecast for the value of the dollar in April 2016. In his opinion, Russian ruble in early spring, it will begin to strengthen, which will lead to a decrease in the dollar rate to 67 rubles. B. Kheifets, Chief Researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, agrees with his colleague: according to his estimates, the value of the dollar in April-May of this year will fall below 70 rubles, but will not be able to gain a foothold at this mark and by the summer will rise again to those that have become familiar to Russian citizens values of 75-80 rubles.
So, according to the forecasts of Russian analysts, there will be no significant change in the dollar exchange rate in early spring 2016. Experts' opinions differ somewhat, but the total spread of figures given as forecasts is no more than 10 rubles. Thus, the exchange rate of the American currency in April will be about 73 rubles, while its further upward movement is not ruled out.
Recently, there has been some strengthening of the ruble against - the dollar and the euro. In this regard, many owners of such monetary savings are considering whether they should sell their own resources before the price of them has dropped too much.In order to understand the feasibility of such an action, it is important to find out how much the dollar will cost in April 2016, because this period is not far off, and whether the preservation of the currency resource before this period will turn into a much more significant profit than its current sale.
Why the dollar has been declining lately
Speaking about the current forecast for the dollar for April 2016, one cannot but consider the reasons why this currency has recently fallen somewhat in price and began to seem not so profitable for its own holders. This happened mainly because of the monetary measures taken by the government.
It was they who made it possible to strengthen the domestic currency to the current level and stop the rise in prices for euros and dollars. That is why the population began to actively sell these currencies, expecting that in the future they will fall in price even more.
However, considering this strengthening of the ruble, it should be noted that it turned out to be somewhat artificial and, in fact, did not have the necessary economic grounds for it to give a lasting result.
Moreover, for the economy as a whole, it turned out to be rather a debilitating phenomenon, which in the future can have the exact opposite effect of what was expected. Therefore, economists do not predict a further decline in the price of the dollar, expecting completely different dynamics from this currency. It is worth talking about it in more detail.
What will affect the dollar in April, and what will it be
According to the forecasts of the main domestic banks, in April 2016 the dollar exchange rate, as before, will show stable growth.
There are currently no economic reasons for its decline - there was no rise in industry, the conclusion of new international agreements and other positive phenomena for the Russian economy, respectively, and the strengthening of the ruble against this currency will not be able to take place.
The current situation at the moment is characterized by the complete exhaustion of resources to stabilize the exchange rate.
This means that even in critical situation the collapse of the ruble in relation to the dollar cannot be stopped, even using significant monetary instruments. And very soon this trend will make itself felt, raising the official dollar rate to 83 rubles.
True, it will also hold out as such for a short time, give another recession, and then a new breakthrough. Such a fluctuation in the value of foreign currencies will generally feature development of the economy in 2016, and entrepreneurs need to prepare for it now.
If we talk in numbers about how much the dollar will cost in April 2016, then it is advisable to call 81-82 rubles per unit of currency. This is according to the most moderate forecasts.
In addition to them, there is also a version that it is in the spring that another collapse of the ruble can be expected, as a result of which the price per dollar may well amount to 115 rubles, if not more.
Such forecasts, in particular, are provided by such economists as Stepan Demura, whose opinion it is advisable to listen to. So, in his opinion, such a collapse in the price of the ruble is possible. However, it is not possible to say with a high degree of probability which month of this spring it will fall on - in April, May or already in the summer period - June-July.
In the context of the currency topic, it is worth talking separately about what will happen to the euro in April 2016. This currency is predicted not to grow at the same pace as the dollar. An important aspect influence on it will remain the situation with refugees in the European Union, which certainly in the current year will not be the best way to influence the development of the situation with this currency. However, no significant declines are expected in the domestic market.
Is it worth buying currency in the current situation
Since there are no objective reasons for the strengthening of the ruble, investments in this currency, primarily through the sale of their savings in euros or dollars, will be extremely unprofitable. It is much more reasonable in this situation, on the contrary, to purchase the currency while the rates on it are the most profitable.
At the same time, it is much more profitable to place bets on the dollar, since it is its position that is currently the least shaky. Such investments in the current year can bring you up to 20% profit.
An exception in this case can only be made by those investors who are counting on a short-term deal with the sale of existing resources in order to purchase equipment for enterprises or add finance to the turnover. For them, this is the most profitable period in the current year for such activities.
If such measures are not foreseen in the personal business, currency operations it is recommended to postpone for a while, since by the end of spring the stocks of such funds will give you the opportunity to count on better deals.
In general, the prices for the euro, as well as the dollar exchange rate for April 2016, will not bring any special surprises to either banks or private investors involved in. Quite naturally, these funds will rise in price and, if properly managed, they will be able to bring good profits to stock players.
The dollar continues to fluctuate depending on fluctuations in oil prices. Hopes for a reduction in oil production led to a short-term increase in oil prices, however, one cannot count on a sustainable trend at this stage.
Analysts' forecast for April 2016 indicates further volatility in the dollar and euro.
Oil is the head
The dynamics of changes in the value of the ruble directly depends on the trends of the oil market. Attempts by exporters of "black gold" to agree on options for reducing the production of raw materials give hope for a speedy recovery in oil prices. However, the current agreements to maintain the January level of oil production will not have a significant impact on the market, experts warn.
The Central Bank does not intend to support the position of the ruble with the help of foreign exchange interventions, as stated by the head of the regulator Elvira Nabiullina. The main task of the authorities remains the diversification of the economy, which will minimize the negative impact of low prices on "black gold".
Another important factor is the problem budget deficit. Former head of the MED Alexey Ulyukaev said that the situation with the implementation of the revenue side of the budget is entering a critical phase. Experts admit that the authorities may go for the devaluation of the ruble to patch up budget holes. In turn, representatives of the Central Bank deny the possibility of this scenario.
Some experts allow the ruble to strengthen in the near future, which is associated with the adaptation of the Russian economy to current realities.
Future Scenarios
APEKON Analysts Expect Gradual Weakening Russian currency. By April, the dollar rate will reach 84 rubles / dollar, which is associated with a negative forecast for the dynamics of oil quotations.
These estimates almost coincide with the expectations of experts Morgan Stanley, which predict the value of the dollar at the level of 82 rubles. Despite the optimistic statements of officials, the bank's representatives assume that the Russian currency will continue to depreciate in the future, reaching the level of 87 rubles/dollar at the end of the year.
Representatives of the Russian banking sector allow the gradual strengthening of the ruble. Head of VTB24 Mikhail Zadornov believes that the continuation of the recession this year will not be a problem for the Russian currency. Such an opinion is shared Vladimir Kravchuk from Gazprombank.
The optimistic forecast of experts assumes the restoration of the Russian currency to 70 rubles / dollar, which will become possible after the increase in oil prices.
The economic difficulties of the eurozone will affect the positions of the European currency. Already by April, the value of the euro will come close to the positions of the dollar, and this trend will continue until the end of the year.
Experts predict an increase countries GDP Eurozone by 1.7% in 2016, which exceeds the previous year's figures (1.5%). However, expected inflation of 1% remains well below the ECB's target. Also, European manufacturers continue to lose their positions in world markets, which forces the regulator to seek additional sources to stimulate the economy.
As a result, the ECB's quantitative easing policy will continue in the short term. At the same time, the Fed has already begun a cycle of raising interest rates, which will lead to the strengthening of the US currency. As a result, the forecast for the euro against the ruble for April 2016 will be 74-88 rubles / euro, which will be determined by the dynamics of the economic situation.
An additional positive factor for the Russian currency may be the partial lifting of existing sanctions. This topic is being actively discussed in the West, and soon some restrictions may be lifted, which will allow the ruble to partially win back the lost positions.
May is still far away, but experts are on the alert, making predictive values related to behavior foreign exchange. And this is no coincidence: the vacation period is approaching, so people want to know when it is most profitable for them to buy vouchers, the prices for which directly depend on the dollar exchange rate.
The dollar exchange rate forecast for May 2019 will help you figure out whether it is worth rushing to pay for a future holiday or is it better to buy tickets just before the trip.
When making a forecast, experts are guided by a number of factors, the behavior of which directly determines the behavior of the dollar. The latter does not jump at random: there is a certain pattern of such a phenomenon, knowing which, you can independently, if not accurately, but within acceptable limits, predict the movement of the dollar in one direction or another.
So, the forecast of analysts is based on the following factors:
- oil prices;
- sanctions;
- inflation;
- economic forces;
- demand for domestic goods;
- policy of the Central Bank.
Not only this list can affect the behavior of foreign currency. No expert forecasts can predict such facts as natural phenomena and cataclysms.
Prices for "black gold"
The latest news no longer shows a direct dependence of the dollar exchange rate on the price of oil: this trend is gradually fading away. So, if we compare June and December 2017, we can see that the dollar exchange rate was equal to 57 and 67 rubles, respectively. Although a barrel of oil could be bought in the one in the other period at the same price - $ 44.
Thus, only a fall in oil prices can provoke a weakening of the ruble. On the other hand, the ruble will not respond to the strengthening of oil prices.
Sanctions
If there were no sanctions. Yes, many experts agree that the sanctions “spoil all the raspberries”: the ruble would significantly strengthen its position if the sanctions were lifted. But, alas, ah. The outflow of foreign currency from Russia will continue again.
Are there any prerequisites for growth?
The higher the euro, the closer the shift in the ECB monetary policy. The markets were betting that with the French elections, the growth of the eurozone economy would also begin. Analysts expect that central bank will hint at its meeting that the stimulus will be phased out over the coming months. Interest rate increases may be at the end of 2017-beginning of 2019.
The dollar, meanwhile, is depreciating against all currency groups, and after that the Fed will raise interest rates it will fade even more. Analysts point to several reasons why the dollar is falling, including a change in investor sentiment associated with fresh revelations of US relations between President Donald Trump and Russia.
A big shift in the market came on not so long ago and even more than expected inflation in the US. Economic data show that American economy may enter the stage of decline, and against this background, the prospects for an increase in the dollar is not worth it. Recently, many currencies have regained their positions against the US dollar.
The US government bond market is by far the largest investment asset in USA. Therefore, the demand for debentures The United States from global investors influence the value of the dollar.
One of the key factors in pricing these bonds is the ability to raise interest rates and yields on these bonds, and this in turn creates demand among foreign investors that will submit more bids to buy the dollar.
Stagnation in US bonds drives capital in popular currencies such as the AUD and NZD and non-interest bearing assets such as gold. The nominal yield indicates a continuation of the upward movement, which should support the euro, not the dollar, in the future.
The currency is still moving faster than the yield and needs more high yield to provide at least some confirmation. All movements are not so impressive, as a result, while the dollar continues to move two steps up, one step down.
Central Bank Policy
The main currency regulator cannot but influence the dollar exchange rate. What he successfully does through:
- the discount rate, the reduction of which would give groundwork for economic growth;
- foreign exchange interventions – suffice it to recall how the Ministry of Finance at the end of 2017 successfully bought up foreign currency on the Moscow Exchange, hoping to create demand for it.
Economic performance and inflation rate
The country's economy is still in a state of stagnation, and no positive progress can be expected yet. The decrease in the level of inflation is associated with a decrease in purchasing power.
Be aware of events, study, analyze, predict!
What will happen to the dollar from May 1, 2019
Many experts believe that in the second quarter there will be a gradual slight appreciation of the dollar. Presented below table proof of this.
In May, the dollar exchange rate will continue to decline from the mark of 62.55 rubles to 59.96 rubles. Today, the value of the dollar has increased significantly, which is not surprising for the current economic situation.
To make an interval forecast, analysts need to calculate the standard deviation from the trend. What takes time. The specialists have revised their earlier forecasts and predict that the dollar will show strength for a long period, as the US economy continues to show impressive growth, but only until April 2019.
The July inflation report was below analysts' expectations and confirmed among traders the opinion that the Fed will return to raising rates. But experts still see risks that should fill the gap left by the jump left by France's April 23 first round of elections.
The pair in question has formed an ascending channel since the beginning of 2017 and recent months she will shoot above the top lane before returning down. This inability to hold a break above the channel could be a sign of exhaustion and hence a downward reversal.
Today's retail sales report supports the outlook that consumption will continue to be an important driver of growth in the coming quarters. The latest analysis of speculative currency positioning shows that investors continue to add short positions to the dollar.
The first Eurozone GDP data is expected to continue to show growth of 1.7% compared to Q1 in 2016 and 0.5% compared to Q4 2017. Eurozone data as a whole has risen recently, so there is a skew in the market.
How the dollar exchange rate has changed over the past 5 years
The period from 2012 to mid-2014 was a favorable time for the growth of the country's economic well-being. It was at that time that major contracts were signed to expand the scope economic influence in the international arena. Russia began to actively supply raw materials and products manufactured in the country for export.
As a result, the cost of 1 dollar at that time left about 30 rubles. Bidding by currency pairs were stable, practically nothing since the previous crisis was reflected in the behavior of the speculative rise or fall in prices. This went on for about three years.
After that, the first serious foreign policy differences appeared, which gave rise to certain disputes on a number of international issues. Defending their position, Europe and the West decided to take a number of interim measures in the form of sanctions in order to influence the foreign policy country.
As a result, from November 2014 to January 2015, the dollar rose significantly, and its price was more than 68 rubles, that is, the real increase was more than 100% of original cost. This has generated a lot of demand and stock markets currencies picked up this trend, once approaching the mark of the ruble against the dollar at 83 rubles.
These movements continued throughout 2015. After a series of agreements and the easing of sanctions, the ruble began to significantly strengthen and raise its position. In 2017 exchange trading opened in positively growing numbers. Today, the rate is quite floating. It can range from 49 to 65 rubles, depending on the situation in the foreign policy arena.
Today it is extremely difficult to make forecasts as to which scenario the Russian economy will develop, therefore, experts’ forecasts on the dollar exchange rate forecast for August 2019 in Russia can be considered somewhat approximate (the situation on foreign exchange market changing...