What is the state debt of the Russian Federation. Public debt and ways to repay it
As a result of government loans, government debt is formed.
State debt Is the sum of accumulated budget deficits minus budget surpluses.
It can take the form of inner and external debt... Usually loans are placed primarily within the country, but some of them can be placed abroad.
The part that the state borrows abroad to cover the deficit state budget, will thus be included in both public and foreign debt.
External debt weighs heavily on the country (although many owe each other) - it is necessary to give away valuable goods, provide services in order to pay interest and pay off the debt. In addition, sometimes the lender will impose certain conditions.
Internal public debt leads to a redistribution of income among the population of the country. Payments of the state debt lead to the fact that, as a rule, money from the pockets of the less well-off strata goes to the more well-off, since they are the ones who buy government bonds.
The budget deficit and the public debt are closely related: an increase in the budget deficit leads to an increase in public debt. But the absolute value of the budget deficit, and hence the public debt, is not very indicative for economic analysis... You need to know what processes the budget deficit serves, what changes in the reproduction cycle it reflects. In addition, it is very important to measure changes in public debt in relation to changes in GDP.
How do public debt and its growth affect the functioning of the economy?
There are usually two dangers seen in public debt:
1) the possibility of the bankruptcy of the nation;
2) shifting the debt burden to other generations.
The first danger is unrealistic, since no one can prevent the government from fulfilling its official obligations to service the public debt. These obligations consist of:
a) refinancing(upon maturity of the GO, the government sells the new GO and uses the proceeds to pay the value of the bonds being redeemed);
b) levying taxes(to pay interest on the debt and its amount);
v) issuing new money into circulation.
Government debt accumulates and becomes public debt. It has to be paid with interest. They say that today's government loans Are tomorrow's taxes. Some taxpayers own state valuable papers... They receive interest on these securities and at the same time pay taxes, which are partially used to pay off government loans. As a rule, it is not possible to pay interest in full from the current budget revenues and to repay government loans on time. Constantly in need of funds, governments resort to more and more loans: covering old debts, they make even bigger new ones.
Thus, public debt represents the total amount owed by the government of the country to the holders of government securities, equal to the sum past budget deficits.
Public debt is subdivided into:
1) interior- debt of the state to citizens, firms and institutions of a given country who are holders of securities issued by its government;
2) external- debt of the state to foreign citizens, firms and institutions.
In countries with hard and freely convertible currencies, there is no division into external and internal debts. In these countries, there is a concept of national debt. Thus, the US national debt accumulated over several decades of budget deficit, and in 1999 it amounted to 5.76 trillion dollars. The United States spends 15 to 20% of the budget on its maintenance annually. The national debt of Great Britain is 337 billion pounds, 7% of the budget is spent on servicing it.
Public debt is also subdivided into short (up to one year), mid-term (from one to five years) and long term (over five years). The most severe are short-term debts. They will soon have to pay the principal amount from high interest rates... Such debt can prolong but it has to do with paying interest on interest. State bodies try consolidate short-term and medium-term debt, that is, to turn it into long-term debt, postponing the payment of the principal amount for a long time and limiting it to annual interest payments.
Foreign debt is the subject of special attention of the governments of the countries. If payments on it make up a significant part of the receipts from the foreign economic activity of the country, for example, 20-30%, then it becomes difficult to attract new loans from abroad. They are provided reluctantly and at higher interest rates, requiring pledges or special guarantees.
Usually, the governments of the debtor countries take all possible measures to avoid falling into the position of hopeless debtors, as this limits access to foreign financial resources. There are several ways to do this.
1. The traditional way is to pay off accounting debts gold and foreign exchange reserves... For inveterate debtors, this path is, as a rule, excluded, since they have exhausted these reserves or are very limited.
2. Consolidation external debt, which is possible only with the consent of creditors. Lenders create special organizations - clubs, where they develop a solidarity policy in relation to countries that are unable to fulfill their international financial liabilities.
The most famous are the London Club, which includes creditor banks, and the Paris Club, which unites creditor countries. Both of these clubs have repeatedly met the requests of the debtor countries (including Russia) to defer payments, and in a number of cases, they partially wrote off the debts.
3. Reducing external debt by conversions, i.e. turning it into long-term foreign investment... On account of the debt, foreign creditors are offered to purchase real estate, securities, participation in capital, rights in the country that is the debtor. One of the options for converting external debt into foreign investment is the participation of economic entities of the creditor country in privatization. state property in a country with debt. In this case, the interested firms of the creditor country redeem the debtor country's obligations from their state or bank and, with mutual consent, use them to acquire property.
Such an operation leads to an increase in the share of foreign capital in national economy without entering the country from abroad financial resources, material carriers of fixed capital, new technologies, but it eases the burden of external debt, makes it possible to obtain new loans from abroad and stimulates the subsequent inflow of private foreign investments and reinvestments in the economic objects acquired in this way.
4. Appeal of a debtor country in a difficult situation to international banks - regional, the World Bank. Such banks, as a rule, provide soft loans to overcome the crisis situation, but condition their loans with strict requirements for emission, credit policy, encouraging competition, minimizing the state budget deficit.
State debt — this is the amount of the country's debt to its own and (or) foreign legal entities, individuals, governments of other countries. It consists of the total accumulated amount of budget deficits (minus budget surpluses) and the amount of financial obligations to foreign creditors (minus the part that went to cover the budget deficit) as of a certain date. V developed countries ah public debt is also defined as the total outstanding government bonds.
Distinguish between internal debt and external.
Domestic debt — this is the debt of the state to the population, business entities of their country. It is generated by budget deficits and their debt financing. Most economists argue that the growth of domestic debt cannot lead to the bankruptcy of the nation, since it is a debt to ourselves. In addition, the state always has the opportunity to finance it by increasing tax rates, issue of money, refinancing.
At the same time, one must not underestimate Negative consequences internal debt, because under certain conditions, it can become a serious problem for the country's economy, since a rapid increase in the issue of government securities can lead to a reduction in the main capital; By selling securities, the state competes with the business sector on the loan capital market, as a result of which the lending rate rises, which leads to a reduction in private investment in the country's economy, net exports and, in part, consumer spending. A negative consequence of the growth of domestic debt is an increase in the amount of interest payments on it. Therefore, it is necessary to constantly monitor the dynamics of the ratio between domestic debt and the volume of national production. If debt grows slower than gross domestic product, then this means a decrease in its share in the national product, and vice versa.
To prevent the consequences of debt from becoming too severe for the economy, the government must take certain measures: reducing inflation, introducing special taxes and sequestering the budget, that is, proportional cost reductions (by 5 or 10, 15%, etc.) on a monthly basis, practically, for all budget items until the end of the current financial year. Protected articles, the composition of which is determined by the highest authorities, are not subject to sequestration. There are also articles, the sequestration of which is impossible (payment of interest on public debt, etc.).
External debt — this is debts to individuals, legal entities, governments of other countries.
It can appear on two main reasons:
a) as a result of direct borrowing of funds from foreign states, private companies;
b) by selling government securities to foreign legal entities and individuals, states.
The consequences of external debt harder for the country than the domestic one. With external debt, the nation is forced to give other countries valuable goods and services in order to pay interest and pay off debt, which lowers the living standards of the population. In addition, when granting a loan, the creditor country may require the fulfillment of a number of conditions that are "inconvenient" for the borrowing country. Due to the negative consequences of external debt, its limit is usually established by law.
Large external debt reduces the country's international standing and may complicate obtaining new foreign loans.
Therefore, the government is taking certain measures to reduce external debt:
Use to pay off part of the debt gold and foreign exchange reserves country;
Renewal short-term debt in a long-term or deferred payment of external debt (with the consent of the creditor).
The value of the total GD total and the primary GD of the first public debt can be calculated using the following formulas:
where G- government spending;
N- payments for debt service;
F- transfers;
T- tax revenues to the budget;
In this case, debt service payments are calculated as:
where D- the amount of debt;
R 1 - real interest rate.
Thus, public debt is a direct result of budget deficits and is the amount of budget deficits accumulated over a certain period of time, minus the positive budget balance... With debt financing of the primary deficit, both the principal amount of the debt and the ratio of its servicing increase.
The mechanism of self-reproduction of public debt, therefore, it looks like: growth in primary public debt → growth in government loans → growth in the total amount of public debt → growth in payments for servicing public debt → growth in the total amount of public debt → growth in new government loans → growth in the total amount of public debt → growth in payments for servicing public debt → etc.
To quantitatively describe the relationship between government debt and future taxes, it must be assumed that the economy has been functioning for only two periods. In this case, the first period represents the present, and the second - the future. It is necessary to analyze how tax revenues during both periods compare with government procurements in the same periods.
In the first period, the state collected taxes T 1, and the volume of purchases was G 1, in the second period - taxes T 2 and the volume of purchases - in the amount G 2. Since the government can tolerate either a budget deficit or an excess of revenues over expenditures, taxes and costs in each separate period do not have to be closely related.
In the first period, the budget deficit D equal to government spending G 1 net of taxes T 1:
The government finances this deficit by selling the corresponding amount government bonds. In the second period, the state must collect the necessary amount of taxes to pay the arrears, including accrued interest, and pay for public procurement for the second period, i.e.:
where r- the rate of interest on debt.
This equation shows the relationship between the volume of purchases and tax revenue in each period. Converting it to:
We obtain an identity called government budget constraint... It shows that the present value of government spending is equal to the current present value of tax revenue.
State budget constraint shows how the current changes in fiscal policy related to future policy changes. The budget constraint assumes that the current present value of consumption should not exceed the current present value of the entire income stream. When taxes are reduced by D T income also grows by D T, but the income of the second period decreases by.
Quantification public debt is objectively complicated by various factors:
1) usually, when assessing the amount of government spending, depreciation in the public sector of the economy is not taken into account. This leads to an overestimation of the size of the budget deficit and public debt;
2) government spending should include only the real interest on government debt rather than nominal. At high inflation rates, this error can be quite significant and is determined by the ratio:
where R r- real interest rate
R n- the nominal interest rate;
p = R n- R r- the amount of inflation.
Overestimating the budget deficit associated with an overstatement of government spending due to inflationary interest payments on debt. Therefore, when measuring the budget deficit, an inflation adjustment is required:
Real budget deficit = Nominal budget deficit - Amount of public debt · Inflation rate.
3) when assessing the state budget deficit at the macroeconomic level, the state of the budgets of the subjects of the state, which may have surpluses, is usually not taken into account;
4) along with the official state budget deficit, there is a hidden deficit due to the quasi-fiscal activities of the central bank, and state enterprises and commercial banks, which underestimates the actual budget deficit and public debt, which is often done purposefully, for example, as part of the government's policy towards an annually balanced budget.
Thus, the absolute size of the budget deficit and public debt cannot serve as reliable macroeconomic indicators, especially since the debt usually increases with the growth of GDP. Therefore, it is advisable to use relative debt indicators.
The following main relative indicators of public debt can be distinguished:
- stock indicators, characterizing the degree of dependence of the state's economy on past capital inflows (debt burden), i.e.
The dynamics of the debt-to-GDP ratio depends on the following factors: a) the value of the real interest rate, which determines the amount of interest payments on debt; b) the rate of growth of real GDP; c) the magnitude of the primary budget deficit.
To analyze the external debt, it is advisable to compare its value with foreign exchange earnings from the export of goods and services, i.e.
- flow indicators. The higher they are, the more active short-term adjustment is required for foreign trade and foreign exchange policy in order to balance the balance of payments, namely:
Debt service amount (present value of external debt payments) includes:
a) payments for the repayment of the principal debt;
b) payment of interest;
c) discount correction factor.
In macroeconomic analysis, the comparative dynamics of indicators is also used, which can be represented as:
For the analysis of countries and international comparison, in addition to the debt service rate, the rate of interest payments, the share of debt in GDP and the export of goods and services, the following indicators are also used:
There are no rigidly fixed critical levels of a country's creditworthiness indicators, but there are empirical criteria for classifying debt as excessive, moderate and low. The present value of payments on external debt to GDP in case of excessive debt exceeds 80%, in case of moderate debt it is in the range of 18-80%, and in case of low debt it is less than 18%.
The present value of payments on external debt to the export of goods and services with excessive debt is more than 220%, moderate - within 132-220%, low - less than 132%.
The actual burden of the state debt for a particular country is predetermined, first of all, by the state's ability to serve it, the government's ability to mobilize cash monetary resources. This largely depends on the value money supply(unit M
The mechanism for reducing external debt involves:
a) redemption of debt in the secondary securities market for cash at a discount from the nominal price;
b) the exchange of debt for equity capital (swap) of industrial corporations;
c) replacement of existing debt obligations with new obligations with a decrease in the interest rate and (or) extension of the loan repayment period.
The poorest debtor countries are given a choice of one of the options for assistance from official creditors:
Partial debt cancellation;
Further extension of the term of debt obligations;
Decrease in the interest rate on debt service.
Debt service expenses are the least elastic item of the state budget expenditure.
The reasons for the budget deficit can be very different. These are wars, economic downturns, tax cuts, and sometimes a lack of political will and determination to cut spending and save budget. Inflation, irrational taxation and investment-credit policies have a negative impact on the budget. By itself, the budget deficit is not always a negative phenomenon; moreover, its presence can stimulate economic development, but it largely depends on the way it is financed. It can be covered in several ways: through the emission of money, loans in central bank, loans to the private sector and external borrowing.
Issuing money is considered the most in a simple way cover the budget deficit. But excess emission can cause uncontrolled inflation, devalue savings and the national currency.
The state can also tighten tax policy, but this is an unpopular measure that they try to avoid.
Government loans, in comparison with the above two methods, are the preferred source of financing the budget deficit. This is not as detrimental to the economy as emission, because such, for example, domestic loans consist of temporarily free funds from the population and organizations, respectively, the aggregate demand and the amount of money in the economy does not increase. But there is still a negative impact on the economy. Government securities divert some of the free cash; an increase in demand from the state for money leads to an increase in interest rates, and as a result, there is a reduction in investment in the real sector of the economy.
Government loans can be classified according to the following criteria: by subjects of loan relations (loans placed by the central and territorial bodies authorities); on circulation in the market (market, which are freely bought and sold, and non-market, which cannot change their owners); by borrowing currency (internal and external); depending on the term for raising funds (short-term - up to 1 year), medium-term (from 1 year to 5 years), long-term (from 5 years and more); by the method of determining income (with fixed or floating income); by security (mortgages and non-mortgages); by the nature of the income paid (winning, interest, win-win) and other features1.
Internal and external loans.
In the most general terms, external debt is a debt to foreign states, organizations and individuals, internal debt is a debt of the state to its population. In accordance with the Budget Code of the Russian Federation, the volume of the state internal debt Russian Federation includes: the nominal amount of debt on government securities of the Russian Federation, obligations for which are denominated in the currency of the Russian Federation; the amount of the principal debt on loans received by the Russian Federation, and the liabilities for which are denominated in the currency of the Russian Federation; the amount of the main debt on budget loans received by the Russian Federation; the amount of liabilities under state guarantees denominated in the currency of the Russian Federation; the volume of other (except for the specified) debt obligations of the Russian Federation, the payment of which in the currency of the Russian Federation is provided federal laws prior to the entry into force of this Code 2.
The consequences of public debt for the economy.
Researchers of economic theory distinguish two points of view on the consequences of public debt for the economy. The first is that public debt has an extremely negative effect on the country's economy. It is associated, firstly, with the so-called burden of debt - the population is forced to pay the state taxes necessary to service the debt. Secondly, by borrowing money, the state squeezes out private borrowers from the credit market. Proponents of the opposite idea believe that there is no debt burden or crowding out of private borrowers.
The first direction developed in the work of classical economists. The classical model of the economy assumes that the main engine is not demand, but supply, and the economy self-adjusts. Consequently, there is no need for the state function of stabilization, which means there is no need for loans either. Adam Smith shared a negative attitude towards public debt. Putting individual entrepreneurial interests above the interests of the state, he emphasized that the state, in contrast to a private borrower, manages capital more wastefully and less efficiently. When the state borrows, the resource it withdraws from the economy is lost, both in the case of internal and external debt. Therefore, Adam Smith puts forward the requirement balanced budget, that is, a budget without a deficit.
One of the most thorough studies of this concept was done by Pierre Paul Leroy-Beaulieu. He built the following model of domestic debt: the consequence of loans is taxation of citizens, which is then distributed among the rentiers in the form of interest. At first glance, the welfare of the nation does not change - some citizens, called rentiers, receive interest from other citizens, called taxpayers.
Let's say the loan is canceled. Taxpayers will not pay tax, and rentiers invest their capital differently and will receive about the same interest. Then each party is left with an amount that, in the case of a loan, would belong to only one party. Consequently, the lack of loans makes the nation richer. However, according to Leroy-Beaulieu, there is a case where a loan can be beneficial. This is when it is used for well-planned and economically executed public works. Then capital is not destroyed, but is transformed into a public good: the construction of a bridge, transport network etc.
The second view of public debt is often associated with the so-called Ricardo equivalence. David Ricardo did not see public debt as a positive development, but he does believe that debt does not tax future generations. Ricardo assumed that future taxes associated with current borrowing are capitalized by rational citizens the moment debt arises. That is, as a result of the loan, taxes do not increase, they are distributed over time.
Further, the Keynesian school raised its objections to the classical view of public debt. Keynes' followers were at odds with the classics on three points.
First, they did not believe that the emergence of debt meant the emergence of a debt burden for future generations (at least in the case of domestic debt). They attributed this to the fact that, even taking into account the fact that the descendants will have to pay off the debt, they will also benefit from this debt, since the state will have to pay them interest and the repayment amount.
Second, public debt is not the same as private debt. When a private borrower is employed, he has to take great care in managing his finances so as not to bring himself to bankruptcy.
The likelihood of the bankruptcy of the state is close to zero, no matter how large its internal debt is, since creditors live in the same country with taxpayers.
Third, there is a big difference between domestic and foreign debt. In the case of external debt, the views of the Keynesians are close to those of the classics. But domestic debt is not so bad because of the above two objections. Based on this, the followers of Keynes propose to replace the balanced budget rule with a rule according to which budget expenditures are equal to the sum of taxes and domestic debt.
Modern economic theory takes the view that the consequences of debt need to be assessed against the time horizon.
In the short term, the economy is Keynesian. Scarcity drives growth aggregate demand, which entails an increase in national income.
In the long term, the economy is classical. The deficit slows down the growth of national income and discourages private investment.
Public debt management and servicing.
The public debt management system is a combination of budgetary, financial, accounting, organizational and other measures aimed at efficiently regulating public debt and reducing the impact of the debt burden on the country's economy, in particular, paying income to creditors and repaying loans, changing the terms of already issued loans, determining conditions and the issue of new government securities.
There are the following measures in the field of public debt management: conversion, consolidation, unification, exchange of bonds at a regressive ratio, deferral of repayment and cancellation of loans, refinancing and debt restructuring.
Conversion- this is a decrease or increase in the amount of interest paid on loans.
Consolidation- changes in the terms of loans associated with their terms. As a rule, the state is interested in extending the loan term. Consolidation is usually accompanied by the unification of securities.
Unification- this is the combination of several loans into one, when bonds of previously issued loans are exchanged for bonds of a new loan. This measure is taken to reduce the number of types of circulating securities to reduce the cost of their servicing. In some cases, bonds are exchanged on a regressive basis.
A regressive bond exchange is a situation where several previously issued bonds are equated to one new bond.
Cancellation of public debt- this is the refusal of the state from obligations on issued loans (internal, external, or for the entire public debt). Cancellation can occur in the event of the bankruptcy of the state, or the refusal of the new political power to recognize the debts of the previous government.
Under refinancing means the repayment of old government debt by issuing new loans. Therefore, the area of public debt management is of particular importance, associated with the definition of conditions and the issuance of new loans. Intergovernmental loans are usually non-bond loans. Their conditions are negotiated in special agreements. But intergovernmental loans are possible only if the country has a good reputation for financial market.
Restructuring- repayment of debt obligations with the establishment of other conditions for servicing debt obligations and maturity dates (revision of the timing of payments, writing off part of the debt). Debt restructuring is carried out with the consent of creditors.
The goals of public debt management include: maintaining the volume of public debt at an economically safe level; maintaining the cost of servicing public debt; ensuring the fulfillment of state obligations in full at a lower cost for the medium and long term.
The following table summarizes the goals of public debt management in different countries.
Australia | "The main goal ... is to raise debt, manage and service debt with the lowest long-term cost and acceptable vulnerability to risk." |
Denmark | “The overall goal of government debt policy is to reduce, as much as possible, the cost of borrowing in the long term. This goal is surrounded by other considerations: - to keep the risk at an acceptable level; - to create in Denmark and maintain a well-functioning, efficient financial market; - to make it easier for the government to enter the financial market in the long term ”. |
Ireland | “The goal of debt management ... is to refinance repayable debt and finance the government's annual need for borrowed funds so as to provide short- and long-term liquidity, contain the growth and volatility of fiscal debt service costs, limit the government's vulnerability to risk and exceed the benchmark (shadow) briefcase". |
New Zealand | “Maximize long-term economic income on the government's financial assets and debt in the context of fiscal strategy and the government's unwillingness to take risks. " |
Portugal | “To attract borrowed funds and carry out other financial transactions on behalf of the Republic of Portugal so as to: - Satisfy the republic's need for borrowed funds on a stable basis; - to minimize government spending on debt servicing in the long term, taking into account the risk strategies developed by the government ”. |
Sweden | “The goal of central government debt management is to minimize the cost of borrowing in the long term, with due regard for the risks associated with debt management. However, management must always comply with the requirements imposed by monetary policy, and the instructions of the cabinet of ministers. " |
United Kingdom | "Maintain the annual volume set by ministers of the Treasury for the sale and purchase of government bonds, with a focus on minimizing long-term costs and accounting for risk." |
Source: Currie, Elizabeth, Jean-Jacques Dethier, and Eriko Togo, “Institutional Arrangements for Public Debt Management”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3021, April 2003, p. 30. (Alekhin B.I. State debt. A handbook for students of the Academy of Budget and Treasury. M., 2007) |
In order to determine how effective credit management is, it is necessary to compare the amount of the excess of receipts over expenditures on the public credit system to the amount of expenditures. On the basis of the external public debt, it is possible to determine the ratio of its servicing. This is the ratio of all payments on debt to foreign exchange earnings countries from exports of goods and services, expressed as a percentage. A safe level of public debt service is considered to be up to 25%.
International experience of government debt policy.
In order to determine the current trends in debt policy, it is necessary to see the level of distribution of public debt across the countries of the world. On the map with the IMF data for October 2014, we see that the percentage of government debt in relation to GDP is distributed extremely unevenly. Debtor countries can be conditionally divided into two groups: debtor countries with a high standard of living and developed economies and debtor countries with undeveloped economies.
Let's start with the first group.
At the beginning of 2014, the United States had the largest national debt, then (developed) countries were distributed in the following order:
USA - 17.61 trillion. dollars
Japan - 9.87 trillion. dollars
China - 3.89 trillion. dollars
Germany - 2.60 trillion. dollars
Italy - 2.33 trillion. dollars
France - 2.11 trillion. dollars
UK - 2.06 trillion. dollars
Brazil - 1.32 trillion. dollars
Spain - $ 1.23 trillion dollars
Canada - $ 1.2 trillion dollars
At the same time, if we evaluate government debt to GDP, the list will be somewhat different:
Japan - 242.3%
Greece - 174%
Italy - 133.1%
Portugal - 125.3%
Ireland - 121.0%
USA - 107.3%
Singapore - 106.2%
Belgium - 101.2%
Spain - 99.1%
UK - 95.6%
The leading positions in both the first and second lists are occupied by Japan. It should be noted that Japan's public debt is mostly domestic. Its growth began after the 1973 oil crisis. In order to overcome the crisis, the Japanese government carried out the privatization of state corporations, but in the early 90s the economy entered a period of stagnation. Reforms aimed at overcoming the problems required budgetary infusions, and the deficit grew. After the Fukushima accident on March 11, 2011, nuclear power plants in Japan were closed, and it was necessary to reorient energy production to other resources, primarily imported ones. A large number of people of retirement age and traditional social policy imply developed social programs, which also requires cash. All this leads to growth budget expenditures... Main priority economic policy new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was the expansion of domestic demand, fiscal reforms (in particular, tax increases). However, public debt continued to rise, growing 1.4% in April-June 2014 and reaching a new record high of 1 quadrillion 39 trillion yen ($ 10.2 trillion). In June 2014, the Bank for International Settlements published a report that estimated that a 2 percentage point increase in the yield on 10-year government bonds would result in debt servicing costs exceeding tax revenue.
Half of the lines in both lists are occupied by the EU countries, in which a large-scale increase in debt and budget deficits led to a debt crisis.
There are three levels of causes of the European debt crisis: firstly, the impact of the global financial and economic crisis, secondly, internal European integration contradictions, and thirdly, the aggravation of the situation in the most vulnerable countries with a large number of internal economic problems.
The global financial and economic crisis was triggered by excess liquidity that arose as a result of the US Federal Reserve's “cheap money” policy, as well as the accumulation of savings in fast-growing Asian countries. Subsequently, the interest rate decreased, loans began to fall in price, which stimulated the growth of the debt market.
In the EU, the peculiarities of the union itself played a role. From more developed countries, primarily from Germany, the flow of capital was directed to the "peripheral" countries - Spain, Greece, Ireland, Portugal. The influx of money triggered a rapid rise in wages, an expansion of domestic demand and a rise in prices. At the same time, the growth of wages outpaced the growth of labor productivity, the share of exports remained small, while imports, on the contrary, increased. The result was an increase in external debt. The global crisis put an end to the inflow of external financing. The price of loans began to rise. By that time, peripheral countries had already accumulated deficits. The sovereign debt crisis began with the crisis of the Greek government bond market in 2010. The dynamics of its development can be traced in the following graph:
Why did the situation get out of hand? The answer lies in the peculiarities of the structure of the European Union. The documentary basis for the economic and monetary union until 2010 was the following documents: Maastricht Treaty, Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, Lisbon Treaty on Growth and Employment(in 2010 replaced by the strategic program "Europe 2020") and Stability and Growth Pact.
V Maastricht Treaty the criteria are indicated that made it possible to check the readiness of the country for membership in the union. It is about a certain level of inflation - no more than 1.5 percentage points exceeding the indicators of the three EU countries with the lowest rates, the size of the budget deficit - a maximum of 3% Country GDP, the level of public debt - no more than 60% of GDP.
The modification of documents that followed in 2005 significantly eased the budgetary policy, which was used by national governments, led to an increase in public debt and the level of budget deficits in a number of countries and ended in a crisis.
In order to overcome the crisis, it was necessary to globally revise the internal European policy. In particular, emphasis was placed on thorough macroeconomic monitoring of the countries of the European Union. Today, in the event of deviations from the approved criteria, the European Commission issues recommendations for corrective actions that are associated with certain savings measures. If after five months the results are unsatisfactory, sanctions are imposed on the country (which was not in the previous legal framework). In the event of an excessive deficit, the country makes an interest-bearing deposit of 0.2–0.5% of GDP. If measures are not taken, the country stops receiving interest. If further EU recommendations are ignored, the deposit turns into a fine. It can be assumed that if such rules had existed before 2010, Europe would either have avoided the crisis, or it would have been much milder.
However, skeptics point to significant shortcomings of such a policy, which include a partial loss of sovereignty of the participating countries, a slowdown in economic growth associated with austerity and fines, as well as popular protests that also do not contribute to stability and prosperity.
The second distinguished group is the debtor countries with undeveloped economies. Unlike highly developed countries, where the main part of the debt is domestic borrowing, in the second case it is mainly external debts: other states act as creditors, foreign banks etc. Among the largest debtors- the countries of Africa and Latin America. The debts of most African countries were among the least well-off. In particular, many of them owed the USSR for the supply of weapons. In July 2008, $ 16 billion of African countries' debts were written off by Russia.
As for Latin America, after a series of crises in the 1980s and 1990s, the external debt of the largest countries in the region has grown and continues to grow.
US government debt.
The United States has the largest public debt in the world. Today, the US national debt is already more than 18 trillion. dollars. Why has the United States accumulated such a gigantic debt, and why is it causing worldwide concern? To understand this, it is necessary to understand the history of its formation and its structure.
It can be immediately noted that debts are divided into two groups: Federal Government Accounts and Public. Federal Government Accounts are "non-market debt" held by various off-budget social funds and budgetary organizations... These debts are not traded in the market, they are caused by internal borrowing in the public sector. Public Debt - Market Debt. Their holders are buyers of US Treasury debt securities in the financial market, primarily treasury securities and treasury bills.
Market debts, in turn, are subdivided into Fed debts and other debts. The share of Treasury debt is growing rapidly. In 2008, in the total volume of government debt, debt issued in treasury securities accounted for 65.2%. And in mid-2013, the share of Treasuries in government debt rose to 75% 8.
Holders of US Treasury securities can be both residents and non-residents. Residents are holders of the financial and non-financial sectors. The Fed belongs to the financial sector. Other financial institutions includes investment funds, non-state pension and social funds, deposit and credit organizations (banks), Insurance companies... Over the past six years, the FRS share has grown the most: from 2008 (7.8%) to mid-2013 it increased to 16.6%. This growth was facilitated by the program of "quantitative easing" aimed at buying up "junk" bonds in the US financial market to replace the latter with Treasury bonds. These measures and a number of others were aimed at supporting the US banking system during the 2007-2009 crisis. The Obama administration has continued to pursue a policy of support for distressed financial institutions and troubled mortgage borrowers... The strongest manifestation of this policy was the adoption of a new law on state support – Recovery and Reinvestment Act February 17, 2009 (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009). Under this law, $ 787 billion was allocated over two years to support programs American economy, overcoming the crisis and restoring economic growth. In general, in order to overcome the crisis, the state invested about 5 trillion in the economy. USD 9.
As for the US debts from non-residents, these are mainly securities held on the balance sheets of central banks and finance ministries of other countries. These are the so-called official holders of the US government's market debt. Private investors are much less willing to invest in US Treasuries because of their low yield. The main holders of US Treasuries outside America are China and Japan. Many Western European countries also hold US Treasuries. Such a large scale of investment by European countries in US Treasury bonds at first glance seems strange in the context of the European debt crisis. Many experts see this as a manifestation of Europe's dependence on the United States. However, let's not forget that the main advantage of US Treasuries is reliability. In the entire history, there has been no delay or refusal to pay interest on them. For investors, it is an almost risk-free instrument of long-term reliable savings. In 2008, the United States had a need for a very large volume of issue - not for 200-400 billion dollars, but for 1400 billion dollars (this was exactly the amount that was issued in 2009). But at the same time, the global turmoil made them a particularly attractive asset because of their reliability. This may explain the purchases of US government securities by European countries during the crisis.
So, the US national debt is growing, which means that the cost of servicing it increases, and then the budget deficit. In order to avoid a technical default, the US government is forced to raise the "ceiling" of the national debt for new and new borrowings. This raises serious concerns and also serves as a map in the political game between the Republican and Democratic parties. The first act as supporters of economy and the establishment of a hard "ceiling" of the national debt, which will be revised next time on March 16, 2015.
State debt of the Russian Federation.
As of December 1, 2014, the internal debt of the Russian Federation was 4,427,138.353 million rubles, external debt was 5,397.2 million US dollars.
Russia's external debt consists of: loans from the Paris Club of creditors; USSR loans under bilateral agreements; loans issued to Russia since 1992 under bilateral agreements; loans from international financial organizations; market loans (Eurobonds).
The amount of debts inherited from the USSR was about $ 90 billion. These were the shares of all the Union republics, which Russia took upon itself in exchange for the republics' refusal from their share of the external assets of the USSR. The largest amount of debt was owed to the Paris and London Club of creditors. In the Paris Club, almost all of the USSR's debt was formed in the 1980s as a result of falling oil prices. The restructuring of this debt was facilitated by Russia's accession to the Paris Club in 1997: a grace period was determined until 2020, during which the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation had to pay only part of the interest and only after its end - the principal amount of the debt. But in August 2006, thanks to high oil prices, the debt was paid in full ahead of schedule.
Until 2010, Russia also paid off the debts of the USSR to the London Club, which includes private banks and exporting companies, which, after the collapse of the USSR, found themselves in the position of a creditor in relation to Russian importers. In 2010, this debt was paid in full.
Since June 1, 1992 Russia has been a member of the International Monetary Fund. Cooperation with the Fund was carried out on the basis of regular targeted programs. Lending continued until August 17, 1998, when Russian authorities were forced to take decisions on the actual declaration of a default on the domestic public debt (in the part concerning GKOs and OFZs with maturities up to December 31, 1999), the establishment of a 90-day moratorium on payments on foreign financial obligations of commercial banks and the implementation of measures in the foreign exchange area , which led to a fourfold devaluation of the ruble against the dollar and other foreign currencies. The loan package of aid to Russia was temporarily frozen. Another tranche from the IMF was received in July 1999, and since 2000 Russia has never applied for a loan from the IMF.
From 2004 to 2006, there was a steady decline in public debt, however, after the 2008 crisis, it began to grow again.
Today, we are again going through a massive decline in energy prices. But, firstly, now Russia has a relatively small public debt, and secondly, there are funds accumulated over the years of surplus - the funds of the Federal Reserve and the Fund National Welfare... In the document "Main Directions of the State Debt Policy of the Russian Federation for 2013–2015", possible negative consequences of the political situation, economic shocks and other possible negative factors were assumed. Therefore, the debt policy was aimed at:
- ensuring the balance of the federal budget while maintaining a high degree of debt stability;
- development of the government securities market;
- ensuring optimal access to sources of borrowed capital10.
It was planned to increase the number of types of debt instruments and gradually build up internal debt in order to avoid a serious burden on its servicing. However, the reality has adjusted the forecasts. Oil fell far below projected values, the state of the economy and the influence of political factors lead to a budget deficit. Accordingly, the domestic public debt will be increased.
Today the state issues the following types of securities.
1) Bonds federal loan, for which interest payments on coupons are provided. OFZs are issued by the RF Ministry of Finance and are divided into OFZ AD - with debt amortization, providing for periodic repayment of the principal amount of the debt, and OFZ PD - with constant income, when the coupon is paid once a year and is fixed for the entire circulation period.
2) Government savings bonds. The latter are fixed interest rate and with a constant interest rate. GSOs are not traded on the secondary market, and are not intended for foreign investors. They are issued for insurance companies, pension and investment funds, management companies, as well as off-budget funds.
3) OVOZ - bonds of domestic loans of the Russian Federation. The OVOs issued to date are due in 2018.
In the draft federal budget for 2015–2017, the Ministry of Finance predicts the level of the domestic public debt of the Russian Federation at the end of 2015 in the amount of 7.4 trillion rubles, the external public debt - 64 billion rubles. The domestic public debt of the Russian Federation at the end of 2016 is expected at 7.9 trillion rubles, at the end of 2017 - 8.7 trillion rubles. The upper limit of the external public debt of the Russian Federation as of January 1, 2017 was set at 71.5 billion US dollars (55 billion euros); as of January 1, 2018 - 77 billion US dollars (59.2 billion euros).
Regarding a possible default in Russia in 2015, there are two opposite points of view. Optimists, first of all official sources, declare that the default is not due to the accumulated foreign exchange reserves. Pessimists, including Saxo Bank, predict a default in 2015, which will be caused by economic instability... It is assumed that foreign exchange reserves will be quickly squandered to compensate for losses from the sanctions.
Conclusion.
1) Public debt is the most widespread instrument in recent times, although theorists assess it ambiguously. Classical school gives this tool negative assessments, Keynesianism fully admits its use if this debt is internal. The attitude to external debt is unambiguously negative, since it inhibits economic development.
2) Public debt management is a fairly costly item in the state budget. It consists in issuing government securities, servicing existing debts and restructuring them whenever possible. But even the most skillful debt management cannot eliminate the burden of debt repayment, which falls on the shoulders of either current or future generations. The inability to pay debts causes irreparable damage to the country's economy, as it undermines the confidence of investors and the population.
3) The growth of public debt can be justified in the case of implementation of large public projects, which will subsequently bring great public benefit. Or in critical conditions, for example, during a war.
4) States can be conditionally divided into those who are involved in critical situations, and those who attract additional resources to improve the living standards of the population or for some political purposes. The former include the poorest countries in Africa and Latin America, while the latter include developed and emerging economies.
5) Even countries with developed economies are experiencing serious economic and political problems in the case of excessively inflated public debt, and are taking the most aggressive measures aimed at reducing it. In the coursework, a similar situation is considered on the example of Japan and the European Union. In both cases, governments are ready to take unpopular measures - such as a policy of saving, reducing social payments, even a partial loss of sovereignty - to reduce the national debt. And this is not surprising. After all, this is not only a growing budget deficit, but, in the case of external debt, it is also an instrument of political pressure.
6) The main interest is the situation with the US government debt. Today it is the largest public debt in the world, which is constantly growing. Some authors, pointing out that the United States is attracting resources from all over the world to its economy, suspect some kind of evil will of a certain circle of people, developing a conspiracy theory. One of the main questions is what can happen if the US government refuses to raise the public debt ceiling and declares a technical default. Opinions differ here - optimists believe that with a high GDP and certain austerity measures, the United States will be able to cope with its borrowings. Pessimists speculate that the case may end in World War III, recalling that this situation with public debt looks like a repetition of the economic problems that the United States faced before World War II.
But no matter how the situation develops, in any case, its influence will spread far beyond the American economy, and no one doubts this.
7) Russian public debt and the dynamics of its growth are strictly interconnected with oil and energy prices. The relationship is the opposite - when energy prices rise, the government pays off its debts. When energy prices fall, government debt rises. During certain periods of its existence, both the USSR and the Russian Federation created a fairly large external debt. Today the situation in the economy is the most unfavorable, and the government is following the path of developing the state internal debt. This seems to be the only possible way out of the situation, since in the economy for the period sustainable development certain funds have been accumulated that the state can borrow and use to solve pressing problems. If these funds are used to modernize industry and Agriculture, the introduction of innovations, then our country has a chance to get an additional impetus for development. Some factors (the budget for the defense complex, which drags the entire economy with it; reorganization of the banking system, etc.) allow us to hope for this optimistic option.
Anastasia Blucher
Literature:
Nikolaeva T.P. The budgetary system of the Russian Federation: educational and practical guide... Ed. Center EAOI, 2010
Alekhin B.I. State debt. A handbook for students of the Academy of Budget and Treasury. M., 2007
Seregina S.F., Larionova M.L. European Debt Crisis and New Directions for Reforming EU Economic Policy Mechanisms... Russian economic journal. 2012, no. 6
Katasonov V.Yu. Who owes the US? http://www.fondsk.ru
The main directions of the state debt policy of the Russian Federation for 2013–2015. www.minfin.ru
Budget Code of the Russian Federation. Section 98
Public debt is a country's obligations to creditors. They can be legal entities and citizens, foreign powers, international organizations.
Public debt structure
Obligations of a country may arise from legal relations with organizations and persons carrying out activities within its territory. This public debt is considered domestic. It is presented in the form of ruble obligations to residents. External public debt - loans in foreign currency from non-residents.
Forms of obligations
Russian public debt is presented in the form:
- Credit agreements with financial (including international) organizations, foreign powers. They are concluded on behalf of the Russian Federation.
- Valuable papers. They are also issued on behalf of the Russian Federation.
- Re-registration of credit obligations assumed by third parties.
- Agreements on the provision of state guarantees.
Internal loans can be in the form:
The state debt of Russia can be:
- Long-term - for 5-30 years.
- Medium-term - 1-5 liters.
- Short-term - up to a year.
Repayment of obligations is carried out within the period established by the terms of the loan. However, this period should not be more than 30 years. The state debt of Russia is secured by federal property.
Commitment management
RF is not responsible for the debts of subjects and municipalities countries if they were not backed by guarantees from the federal government. The maximum loan amounts are set in accordance with the Budget Law for the coming year. According to Art. 106 BC, external public debt cannot exceed the limit of the volume of payments per year for its servicing and repayment. The Law on the Budget for the forthcoming period approves the borrowing program. It presents a list of external loans with an indication of the sources, purpose, maturity and their total volume. This program stipulates all state guarantees and loans, the size of which is greater than the amount equivalent to $ 10 million. The procedure, conditions for issuing (issuing) and placing obligations are established by the government.
Issue decision
This act is adopted by the government in accordance with the maximum amounts of the budget deficit and public debt, which are set in the Program on Internal Borrowing and the Law on the Budget. The decision on the issue of securities reflects data on the issuer, volumes and conditions of the procedure.
Guarantees
This public debt is a form of collateral with a written commitment. Within the framework of it, the guarantor is responsible for the execution by the person who received the loan, the terms of his agreement with third parties. The Law on the Budget for the Next Period establishes limit value the amount of guarantees. If it is denominated in rubles, it is included in the domestic government debt. The amount can also be in foreign currency. In this case, it refers to external debt.
An important point
According to Art. 118 BC, budgetary institutions are not entitled to take loans from credit institutions. However, they can receive loans. The sources of such loans are off-budget (state) funds and budgets. The Treasury is responsible for maintaining a register of unitary enterprise loans.
Documenting
The administrative apparatus provides for an institution that controls the state debt - this is the Ministry of Finance. Information on the volume of obligations is entered into the corresponding books. The regional, municipal and state debt of the Russian Federation for the issued securities is documented. The necessary information is entered into the Loan Book within a period that is not more than three days from the date of the obligation.
Basic tools
There are several ways to change the conditions under which the public debt is paid. It:
Prerequisites for the emergence
Public debt is a consequence of the objective need to attract additional sources financing of expenditures in the country and budget deficits. For this, first of all, are mobilized own funds... If these sources are exhausted, it becomes necessary to borrow from international organizations and other countries. External debt can be provided in the form of gratuitous financing or as repayable loans. Fundraising is carried out in two directions: private and public, depending on the sources.
Service system
It presupposes a certain scheme according to which the public debt is paid off. This is done in several stages:
- Interest payment.
- Repayment of the principal amount.
- Refinancing if needed.
For example, the conditional public debt of the Russian Federation is 100 thousand units. At a rate of 20% and a repayment period of 4 years with a one-year grace period(when only interest is repaid) to the specified amount should be added 80 thousand. Even with such a simple scheme, the direct management of the public debt presents a certain difficulty. In this regard, the service system includes:
Servicing of internal government loans of the Russian Federation is carried out by the Central Bank and its divisions, unless otherwise established by the Government Decree. It is carried out through operations aimed at placing obligations, their repayment and payment of income on them in the form of interest or in another form. Control over the state of the state debt is carried out by the executive and legislative authorities.
Conclusion
In 1985, the external debt of the Soviet Union was $ 22.5 billion.By 1991, it increased to $ 65 billion. Over the course of thirty years, it was required to pay at least $ 300 billion. To ensure its own foreign economic and foreign policy interests in Russia, it is envisaged to provide loans to foreign states. The program of such lending is approved in the Law on the federal budget for the future financial period... It contains a list of loans, indicates the purpose of their provision, amounts and recipients of funds. All agreements that relate to the restructuring of loans or writing off the debt of foreign countries to the Russian Federation must be ratified in the State Duma.
Consequence government borrowing public debt stands. According to The Budget Code the state debt of the Russian Federation includes debentures Of the Russian Federation to individuals and legal entities of the Russian Federation, constituent entities of the Russian Federation, municipalities, foreign states, international financial organizations, other subjects of international law, foreign individuals and legal entities that arose as a result of state borrowings of the Russian Federation, as well as debt obligations under state guarantees, provided by the RF.
Public debt is understood as the entire amount of issued, but not repaid, debt obligations, with accrued interest that must be paid on them by a certain date.
Public debt servicing refers to operations to pay income on public debt obligations in the form of interest on them and (or) a discount, carried out at the expense of the corresponding budget.
Depending on the level of management, the public debt is subdivided into the public debt of the Russian Federation and the public debt of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation.
The state debt of Russia is secured by all the property that makes up the state treasury.
The structure of the state debt of the Russian Federation is a grouping of debt obligations of the Russian Federation, which include the following types of obligations:
Loans attracted on behalf of the Russian Federation as a borrower from credit institutions, foreign states, including for targeted foreign loans of international financial organizations, other subjects of international law, foreign legal entities;
· Government securities issued on behalf of the Russian Federation;
Budget loans attracted in Federal budget from other budgets of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation;
State guarantees of the Russian Federation
· Other debt obligations.
By terms, debt obligations can be:
· Short-term - up to one year;
· Medium-term - from one to five years;
· Long-term from five to thirty years inclusive.
From the standpoint of management accounting, liabilities are divided into direct and contingent.
Direct obligations include:
· credit agreements and contracts;
· Government loans;
· Contracts and agreements on receipt budget loans
Overdue accounts payable budgetary institutions.
To contingent liabilities:
· State guarantees for obligations to third parties.
When adopting the budget for the next financial year and planning period, the following are determined:
· The upper limit of the state domestic debt;
· The upper limit of the external debt to the Russian Federation;
· The limit on the provision of guarantees to third parties.
The structure of the state debt of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation is a grouping of debt obligations of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation, which, in accordance with budgetary legislation, include:
· Government securities of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation;
· Budget loans attracted to the budget of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation from other budgets of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation;
· Loans received by a constituent entity of the Russian Federation from credit institutions, foreign banks and international financial organizations;
· State guarantees of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation.
Public debt is classified according to the following criteria:
1. By the term of formation and maturity:
· Capital debt - includes the entire amount of debt obligations at a certain date;
· Current debt - consists of payments on obligations that the borrower is obliged to repay in the reporting period.
2. By the currency of the loan (Article 6 of the Budget Code of the Russian Federation):
External debt - liabilities arising in foreign currency, with the exception of liabilities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and municipalities to the Russian Federation, arising in foreign currency as part of the use of targeted foreign loans);
· Domestic debt - liabilities arising in the currency of the Russian Federation, as well as liabilities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and municipalities to the Russian Federation arising in foreign currency as part of the use of targeted foreign loans (borrowings).
One of the important directions of the state budgetary policy is public debt management.
Public debt management is understood as a set of actions by the state represented by its authorized bodies to regulate the size, structure and cost of servicing public debt, or these are measures of the state aimed at repaying the debt.
Public debt management can be viewed broadly and narrowly.
In a broad sense, public debt management involves:
· The formation of a policy in relation to public debt;
· Determination of the main indicators and limit values of government debt;
· definition priority directions use of attracted resources.
In a narrow sense, public debt management involves determining the conditions for the issue, circulation and redemption of specific securities.
The system of organizing public debt management consists of the following elements:
· Concepts of public debt management and debt policy;
· Subjects of public debt management;
· Legal and regulatory support;
· Methods and principles of management;
· Accounting and registration of debt obligations;
· Risk management;
· Programs of state internal and external borrowing and other elements.
The goal of public debt management is to find an optimal balance between the state's needs for additional financial resources and the costs of attracting, servicing and repaying them. The main condition for successful debt management is to ensure economic growth, increase on this basis the total amount of revenues in the country, including budget revenues. With a significant scale of debt, it is necessary to solve the controversial task of limiting the consumed part of GDP for the payment of external debts and their servicing.
In the process of public debt management, the following tasks are solved:
· The maximum possible reduction of costs for its maintenance and repayment, taking into account the situation on the world market;
· Ensuring the timely fulfillment of debt obligations for the repayment and servicing of internal and external debts;
· Minimization of debt for the borrower;
· Effective use of borrowings and others.
The management of the state debt of the Russian Federation is carried out by the Government of the Russian Federation or the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation authorized by it. The management of the state debt of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation is carried out by the supreme executive authority of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation, or financial authority subject of the Russian Federation in accordance with the law of the subject of the Russian Federation. The Bank of Russia and Vnesheconombank take part in the management of public debt, within the limits of their competence determined by regulatory legal acts. Control over the state of the state internal debt is carried out by the Parliament of the country.
The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation is responsible for ensuring the unity of planning and accounting for all operations to attract, repay and service external and internal government borrowings.
Debt policy must comply with certain principles such as:
· Maintaining the volume of debt obligations at an economically safe level, taking into account all possible risks;
· The timeliness and completeness of the performance of debt obligations;
· Transparency of debt management;
· Minimization of the cost of debt obligations and other tasks.
Various methods can be used in the management of public debt based on the stated purpose.
Public Debt Management Techniques
Method name | Method content | Method application interest |
conversion | Modification of the initial conditions concerning the yield of the loan | By reducing the interest on bonds, the government sets a goal to reduce the cost of servicing debt |
consolidation | Changes in the terms of loans related to their terms | The state is interested in obtaining loans for long periods |
unification | Combining several loans into one, when bonds of previously issued loans are exchanged for bonds of a new loan | Reducing the number of securities at the same time, which simplifies the work and reduces government spending |
refinancing | Repayment of part of the public debt at the expense of newly attracted funds | Typically used to pay interest and in a financial crisis |
innovation | Agreement between the borrower by the government and the lenders to replace obligations under the same loan agreement | Reduced government spending |
postponement | Not only the maturity of loans is postponed, but, as a rule, the payment of income is stopped. | Further active development of operations to issue new loans is not effective for the state |
Cancellation of public debt | Refusal of the state from debt obligations | It is declared in case of financial insolvency of the state or is a consequence of the coming to power of political forces that do not recognize the financial obligations of the previous authorities. |
The Budget Code of the Russian Federation provides for debt restructuring, which is understood to mean the agreement-based termination of debt obligations constituting a state or municipal debt, with the replacement of these debt obligations by other debt obligations providing for different conditions of service and repayment of obligations. Debt restructuring can be carried out with partial write-off (reduction) of the principal amount.
Consolidation can be combined with loan unification.
Conversion, consolidation, unification of government loans and exchange of bonds are usually carried out in relation to only domestic loans.
External debt restructuring can be carried out on the basis of one or several measures:
· Postponement of payments - the postponement of the dates of payments, interest on the debt or all payments for servicing the debt to a later date in comparison with the originally agreed;
· Reduction in the amount of the principal debt - reduction in the amount of outstanding debt by either direct write-off of part of the debt, or sale at a discount in the secondary market, or conversion into any national assets of the debtor's country;
· Debt forgiveness - is applied very limitedly on a bilateral and multilateral basis, mainly in relation to those countries and those debts that cannot be paid in the medium term under any, even the most favorable conditions;
· Debt recapitalization - the exchange of debts for bonds of debtors or the provision of new loans with the intended purpose of payment of past debts;
· Debt in exchange for shares - creditors agree to waive their contractual rights against the defaulting debtor in exchange for a certain share of shares.
Accounting and registration of state debt obligations of the Russian Federation are carried out in the state debt books of the internal and external debt of the Russian Federation. The State Debt Book of the Russian Federation is maintained by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation. The book contains information about the volume of debt obligations, the date of occurrence of obligations, the fulfillment of these obligations in whole or in part, as well as other information.
To measure public debt and international comparison of the debt dependence of individual countries in world practice, a number of indicators and indicators of public debt are used:
1. External debt / gross domestic product;
2. External debt / export of goods and services;
3. Cost of servicing external debt / export of goods and services
4. Interest / GDP payments
5. Short-term external debt / external debt
The most common is the "indicator of the ratio of external debt to GDP". It determines the possibility of servicing external debt, paying off payments at the expense of the produced product of a given year. If GDP growth is observed, then the growth of external debt is not terrible either. The main thing is that the rate of GDP growth should not lag behind the rate of growth of external debt. Limit value this indicator not higher than 80% (some consider 50% as a critical mark).
An important role is also played by the indicator "value of the external log per capita", which more accurately reflects the degree of foreign economic dependence of the country than the absolute value of external debt.
Thus, all the indicators presented are of great importance for the analysis. economic situation developing in a particular country.
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