Demographic situation in developed countries. Demographic problem and population explosion
Relatively recently, less than 100 years ago, the birth rate in most European countries, as well as in Russia, was quite high. The European continent differed in the level of economic development from other countries. All this was based on population growth of about 2-3% per year. But modern conditions life, changes in thinking and other circumstances have led to the fact that a demographic crisis has begun throughout the world.
This is a process that needs to be addressed state level. A demographic crisis is a low population growth or its complete absence. This is due to a decrease in the birth rate and an increase in the death rate. However, the demographic crisis can mean not only a decrease in the population, but also its overabundance. In the modern world, the problem of population decline is mainly encountered.
In the case when the birth rate falls for a certain time and does not exceed the death rate, a tendency arises, that is, its reproduction does not occur. The number of women who are of childbearing age is declining.
In this situation, measures should be taken to increase the average number of children per woman who is of childbearing age.
Since ancient times, there have been disputes about the need for population growth. Some scientists are of the opinion that this is unacceptable. As a result of this process, there is a strong migration of the population.
The consequences of the demographic crisis affected everyone and affected the poor and rich, developing and developed countries.
There are several reasons for this situation:
Many agree that the urbanization of the population is to blame. An agrarian society is turning into a more industrial one. People, having moved to the city, stopped giving birth to a large number of children. However, this theory also has opponents who cite Great Britain, Brazil, and Argentina as an example. There, despite earlier urbanization, population growth has remained stable.
The second reason is called some loss, a large increase in real estate prices, the desire for numerous purchases, feminism, etc. Individually, these reasons are not a driving factor in the demographic crisis. Basically, this is a combination of several circumstances that affect to varying degrees.
The former countries of the USSR found themselves in the worst situation. There, the demographic crisis has reached enormous proportions. Every year the population of these countries decreases by 0.5%.
Demographic is also a problem. In the 1990s, when the country's economy was being remade, it turned out to be at a very low level. This could not but affect the life of the population. Emigration to other countries began. Its dimensions have reached incredible and even catastrophic values. This further harmed the country's economy, the development of science, because there was a leak of intellectuals.
The deterioration of the demographic situation attracted the attention of the country's leadership. A policy concept has been developed and adopted for This is a long-term project up to 2015.
For the full functioning of the state is very important demographic situation. This is, first of all, strengthening the status of Russia in terms of geographical and political position. Population growth is important for maintaining the integrity of the country and its territories. Demographic stability is essential for national security.
To improve the situation, it is necessary to develop social programs designed to support large and young families. Problems in the field of healthcare, education, culture, etc., also require solutions.
The economically developed countries of the world have entered a phase characterized by a decrease in natural population growth rates. Also, this group of countries can be divided into three subgroups.
The first subgroup includes countries where a rather favorable demographic situation is still preserved, which is characterized by at least average birth rates and natural growth, ensuring an expanded reproduction of the population. (USA, where the average annual population growth was 0.6%; Canada, France, the Netherlands, Norway, Ireland, Switzerland, where the average annual population growth was at the level of 0.3-0.5%. With this rate of population doubling growth in these countries can be expected in 100-200 years).
The second subgroup should include countries in which, in fact, expanded reproduction of the population is no longer ensured. These include mainly European countries, where the total fertility rate has fallen to 1.5. Some of these countries (for example, Poland) still have a minimal excess of births over deaths. Others, of which there are many more, have become countries with zero population growth. These are Austria, Belgium, Spain, Portugal, Denmark, Croatia, Ireland.
The third subgroup includes countries with negative natural population growth, or with its natural decrease (depopulation). The total fertility rate in this group of countries is also extremely low. All of them are in Europe.
The countries of the third entered a period of demographic crisis, which was brought to life by a complex of interrelated reasons. These include a rapid decline in the birth rate, which leads to a decrease in the proportion of young people in the population. Demographers call this phenomenon aging from below. Further, the increase in the average life expectancy of people in conditions of increasing levels of material well-being also led to a faster increase in the proportion of older people in the population, that is, to aging from above.
Basic demographic processes
Natural population growth
Due to the sharp decline in the number of births compared to the number of deaths in all developed countries, which began in the 1970s, and decreased the overall rate of natural population growth. On average, in EU member states, this coefficient fell from 5.7 in 1970 to 1.7 in 2001, and in the rest - from 6.7 in 1970 to 1.6 in 2001, that is, the number of deaths exceeds today the number of births. Among EU member states, Ireland had the highest rate, with a rate of natural increase in 2001 of 7.3 per 1,000 people. This ratio was also high in France, Luxembourg and the Netherlands - 4 per 1000 people.
Net migration
Throughout the 1990s, all countries experienced an annual increase in population due to immigration, which significantly exceeded emigration. In 2001, Ireland, Luxembourg, Portugal and Spain set a record for net immigration of 5 per 1,000 people. On the other hand, the population of candidate countries declined in the 1900s due to outward migration; this is especially noticeable in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, as well as in the Baltics.
Total population growth
In general, in the 1990s, in the developed countries, the overall population growth was positive, and where there was a decrease in natural increase, this process was replenished by immigration. Ireland and Luxembourg had the highest overall growth rates in 2001, at 11 per 1,000 people. On the other hand, in the 1990s, most of the candidate countries experienced a decline in overall population growth, which, in the case of many countries in Central and Eastern Europe and the Baltics, was exacerbated by population outflows.
Sex and age structure of the population
At present, two main features can be distinguished in the age and sex structure of the population of economically developed countries. First, there are more men between the ages of 25 and 39 than women of the same age, which is a reflection of the pattern of immigration, since the immigrants are able-bodied men of reproductive age. Second, as of 1999, women of childbearing age between 25 and 44 had higher fertility rates than women from developing countries.
Tendencies towards an increase in the number of the elderly population appeared in the 1970s, in the early 1980s they gave way to a decline, and in the mid-1980s they resumed with renewed vigor. Therefore, the proportion of older people (over 65 years old) in the age structure of the population of countries is steadily increasing.
Decline in fertility rates
In all European countries, the birth rate has fallen and is now below replacement level, at 1.5 children per woman. This trend inevitably leads to a natural decline in the population, especially among younger groups. Since the early 1980s, the average age at first marriage for women has gradually increased in most countries. If in 1980 it was 23 years old, then in 1995 it was already 26 years old. The growth was especially noticeable in the Scandinavian countries: in 2001 in Sweden - 30 years, in Denmark - 29 years, in Finland - 28 years. Since the late 1970s, the average age at birth of the first child in European countries has gradually increased: if in the early 1980s it was 25 years old, then in 2000 it was 27 years old.
Population aging in developed countries
The population of developed countries is rapidly aging, as a result, demographic processes threaten to turn economic crisis. Over the next three decades, the aging of the population will lead to an annual drop in the growth rate of the world economy, and there will be a labor shortage in the labor market. In developed industrial countries, by 2050, there will be 7 pensioners for every 10 active workers. Recall that in 2000 this ratio was 10 to 4. In Europe, the ratio will fall to 1 to 1, which will unduly burden state budgets and social security systems.
Rising immigration to developed countries
In general, in most countries, net immigration is small, but in some countries there is a significant inflow or outflow of the population from time to time. Net migration to more developed countries increased steadily between 1960 and 2000. In 1990-2000, the developed countries of the world received 2.5 million migrants annually. In 2007-2010 net migration to developed countries will be about 2.3 million people per year. For 2007-2050 migration growth The population of developed countries will be 103 million people, which will cover the natural population decline as a result of the excess of the number of deaths over the number of births.
So, despite the significant cultural, social, political and economic differences between European countries, demographic trends are quite similar. At the same time, there are certain differences in the degree of change: there is either a tendency to reduce the natural increase in the population, or to its natural decline. The decline in natural population growth is due to a number of demographic factors. In general, despite differences in the degree and duration of changes, similar micro-level trends underlie such development:
raising the age of first marriage;
increasing the age at which the first child is born;
increase in divorce rates;
a drop in birth rates below the replacement level of the population;
increase in the number of older people.
Economically developed countries
The economically developed countries of the world have long passed the second phase of the demographic transition and entered its third phase, which is characterized by a decrease in natural population growth (see Table 1). Until recently, there were almost no very significant differences in this respect between them. However, in Lately in this group of countries, too, a rather strong differentiation began to take place, and now this group can also be divided into three subgroups.
Table 1. European countries with negative natural population growth
The first subgroup includes countries where a rather favorable demographic situation is still preserved, which is characterized by at least average birth rates and natural growth, ensuring an expanded reproduction of the population. The United States can serve as an example of a country of this kind, where the reproduction formula (birth rate - death rate = natural increase) at the end of the 90s remained at the level of 15‰ - 9‰ = 6‰. Accordingly, the average annual population growth was 0.6%. This subgroup includes Canada, France, the Netherlands, Norway, Ireland, Switzerland, where the average annual population growth was at least 0.3-0.5%. With such a growth rate, the doubling of the population in these countries can be expected in 100-200 years, or even more (in Switzerland, in 250 years).
The second subgroup should include countries in which, in fact, expanded reproduction of the population is no longer ensured. These include mainly European countries, where the total fertility rate fell to 1.5 in the mid-1990s. Some of these countries (for example, Poland) still have a minimal excess of births over deaths. Others, of which there are many more, have become countries with zero population growth. These are Austria, Belgium, Spain, Portugal, Denmark, Croatia, Ireland.
Finally, the third subgroup includes countries with negative natural population growth, or, more simply, with its natural decline (depopulation). The total fertility rate in this group of countries is also extremely low. The number of such countries with "minus" population growth only in 1990-2000. increased from 3 to 15. All of them are in Europe.
It will not be a mistake to assert that the countries of the third (and in fact the second) subgroup have already entered a period of demographic crisis, which was brought to life by a complex of interrelated reasons. First of all, they include a rapid, and sometimes downright landslide decline in the birth rate, which leads to a decrease in the proportion of young people in the population. Demographers call this phenomenon aging from below. Further, the increase in the average life expectancy of people in conditions of increasing levels of material well-being also led to a faster than expected increase in the proportion of older (“non-reproducing”) people in the population, that is, as they say, to aging from above.
However, it would be wrong to try to explain the onset of the crisis only by demographic reasons. Its occurrence was also influenced by many socio-economic, psychological, medical-social, moral factors that caused, in particular, such a phenomenon as a family crisis. The average family size in the countries of the second and third subgroups has recently decreased to 2.2-3 people. Yes, and it has become much less stable - with an increase in the number of divorces, the widespread practice of cohabitation without marriage, a sharp increase in the number of illegitimate children.
If at the beginning of the 60s the number of divorces per 1000 marriages in the countries of foreign Europe ranged from 100 to 200, then at the end of the 90s it increased to 200-300. Even more egregious data are on illegitimate children, the proportion of which increased by 5-10 times over the same time. In Great Britain and France, for example, the proportion of illegitimate children exceeds 30%. It is even higher in Denmark - 40%. But the "absolute champions" in this regard were and remain Sweden, Norway and Iceland with a figure of over 50%.
All these reasons and factors in the countries listed in table 2 are combined in different ways. So, in Germany and Italy, apparently, the influence of demographic factors really prevails. In the post-socialist countries of Central and Eastern Europe (Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, etc.), the fact that in the 90s they had to go through a rather painful stage of reforming the political system and the transition from command-planning to market economy. The same applies to Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. And in the CIS member countries (Russia, Ukraine, Belarus), the natural deterioration of the demographic situation coincided with the deep political and socio-economic crisis of the 1990s.
essence demographic problem is the accelerated growth of the world's population. It can be traced by analyzing the time periods through which the population of the Earth reached every billion inhabitants.
Obviously, in the second half of the XX century. the time to reach each next billion has been drastically reduced, which characterizes the extremely rapid growth of the world's population.
The question arises: “What is the main reason for such a rapid population growth?” It lies in the peculiarities of the demographic situation in the countries of the world, and above all in developing ones. Their low productivity in agriculture(it is the main branch of the economy), communal ownership of land (the more people in the community, the larger its land allotment), as well as religious beliefs and traditions, entail an increase in the birth rate, and consequently, a large family.
Rice. 1. Periods of time through which the population of the Earth reached every billion inhabitants
However, if in the past high birth rates, so to speak, were "balanced" by high mortality (due to famine, diseases and epidemics) and population growth was moderate in the end, then after the Second World War the achievements of modern civilization that came to developing countries, entailed exactly the opposite consequences and led to extremely rapid population growth due to high natural increase, which was called " population explosion».
Rice. 2. Causes of the global demographic problem
The essence of the changes that have taken place is reflected in the diagram (Fig. 1). The scheme in fig. 2 and table. 1 allow us to conclude that the main reason for the “population explosion” is the lack of effective birth control.
Table 1. Demographic indicators for different types countries
However, demographic problems are more complex and multifaceted and have significant geographical differences. In the developing countries of the world, a type of reproduction is common, characterized by a relatively high birth rate, mortality and natural increase (type I), and in developed countries - the opposite type, manifested in more low levels demographic processes(II type).
In other words, there are two problems: if developing countries experience a “population explosion”, then a “demographic crisis” is typical for a number of countries of the world, i.e., a decrease in the population due to the excess of deaths over births, which entails a natural population decline.
At the end of the XX century. the number of such countries has reached two dozen: Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia, the Baltic countries, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Slovenia, the Czech Republic, Germany, etc. The decline in the birth rate in these countries is mainly due to their socio-economic development.
We will compare the demographic situation in each of the groups of countries for individual elements and identify various geographical aspects demographic problems.
Table 2. Demographic situation in developed and developing countries
Conclusion: each country in the world has its own demographic problems of a different nature and degree of complexity, determined by differences in the levels of economic, social and cultural development, the religious composition of the population and the history of the state.
The consequences of demographic problems can be as follows:
- extremely rapid growth of the world's population;
- high natural population growth in developing countries, far exceeding their ability to solve the problems of socio-economic development, thereby increasing their backwardness;
- increasing inequality in the distribution of the world's population (9/10 of the world's population lives in developing countries).
Rice. 3. Consequences of demographic problems
Consequently, demographic problems entail the strengthening of other global problems, including food, geoecological and many others.
The Population Explosion: Statement of the Problem
The current stage of human development is characterized by accelerated population growth.
Ten thousand years ago there were about 10 million people on Earth, by the beginning of our era there were 200 million, by 1650 - 500 million, by the 19th century. - 1 billion. In 1900, the population was 1 billion 660 million. In 1950, despite losses in two world wars, the population increased to 2.5 billion, and then one hundred
la to increase annually by 70-100 million (Fig. 17). In 1993, 5.5 billion people live on Earth. On October 12, 1999, at 00:02, a boy was born in one of the Sarajevo maternity hospitals, who became the 6 billionth inhabitant of the planet. On February 26, 2006, the world's population reached another record high of 6.5 billion people, and their number is increasing by 2% per year.
Rice. 17. Global Population Growth
About 6.4 billion people now live on Earth, and the population is growing at 2% per year. It is expected that by 2050 there will be 8.9 billion earthlings.
The growth of the world's population in the middle of the XX century. acquired a rapid pace and was called the population explosion. Population explosion- a sharp increase in the rate of growth of the population of the Earth, associated with a change in the socio-economic or general environmental conditions of life.
At present, about 180 people are born on the planet every minute, 21 people are born every second and 19 people die. Thus, the population of the Earth is increasing by 2 people per second, by 250 thousand daily. For the year, the increase is approximately 80 million, and almost all of it is in developing countries. Nowadays doubling
The number of people on the planet occurs in 35 years, and the production of poverty is growing at 2.3% per year and doubling in 30 years.
It should be noted that the problem of population is not directly related to the number of inhabitants on our planet. The earth can feed more people. The problem lies in the uneven distribution of people on the surface of the planet.
There are human settlements in almost every corner of the Earth, although in some regions, such as Antarctica, there are no conditions for permanent residence. In other harsh areas live small groups of people leading a special way of life. Most of the world's population is concentrated in a relatively small area. In the early 1990s almost half of the 5.4 billion inhabitants of the planet occupied only 5% of its area. Conversely, only 5% of the population lived on half of the Earth's area. About 30% of the world's population is concentrated in South and Southeast Asia, including India, Indonesia and Pakistan, 25% - in East Asia, including China and Japan. Many people also live in the east of North America and in Europe.
Residents of predominantly agricultural countries are more evenly distributed. In India, where 73% of the population lives in countryside, its average density in 1990 was 270 people per 1 km 2. But even here there are significant fluctuations. For example, the population density in the middle part of the Gangetic Plain is three times higher than the national average.
Africa and South America have significantly lower average population densities across countries. The most densely populated country in Africa is Nigeria (130 people per 1 km 2). Among the South American countries, only in Ecuador this figure exceeds 30 people per 1 km2. Significant areas of the Earth are still almost uninhabited. In Australia, there are 2.2 people per 1 km 2, in Mongolia - only 1.4.
Despite the seemingly huge number of people on the planet - about 6 billion 400 million, hypothetically, all of them can be placed on an area of 6400 km 2, if 1 m 2 is allocated for each inhabitant. This area corresponds to the area of Lake Issyk-Kul (Republic of Kyrgyzstan) or three areas of Lake Geneva in Switzerland. The rest of the world would be free. For comparison, we note that the area of such a European dwarf state as Luxembourg is 2600 km 2, the area of the Spanish Canary Islands is 7200 km 2.
The ever-increasing world population requires more and more food and energy, mineral resources, which causes increasing pressure on the planet's biosphere.
An analysis of the current situation of the distribution of the population on the globe made it possible to identify some regularities.
- Population growth is extremely uneven. It is maximum in developing countries and minimum in developed countries of Europe and America.
- The rapid growth of the population violates its age ratio: the percentage of the disabled population - children, adolescents, the elderly - is increasing. The share of children under 15 years old in most developing countries reaches 50%, and people over 65 years old - ranges from 10 to 15%.
- The population density is increasing. The accelerated process of urbanization is accompanied by the concentration of the population in major cities. In 1925, a little more than 1/5 of the world's population lived in cities, now about half. It is predicted that by 2025 2/3 of the world's inhabitants will be city dwellers.
North America and Europe are distinguished by a very large cluster of cities. The high standard of living of the urban population of these regions contrasts strongly with the conditions of life in Asia (excluding Japan), where rural residents are predominantly engaged in arable farming and pastoralism. Smaller areas of population concentration are located in southeastern Australia, southeastern South America, the west coast of North America, and parts of the North American Midwest.
In these areas, the population density is also very uneven. In some small states it is extremely high. The area of Hong Kong, for example, is only 1045 km 2, and the population density is about 5600 people. per 1 km 2. Among the larger states, the highest density was registered in 1991 in Bangladesh (about 800 people per 1 km 2). As a rule, high population density is observed in industrialized countries. So, in the Netherlands in 1990 it was 440 people. per 1 km 2, in Japan - 330 people. per 1 km 2.
Global population growth
The population of the Earth is systematically increasing and the rate of its growth is increasing over the years. For example, the doubling of the population (in million people) from 20 to 40 occurred in 2000 years. From 80 to 180 in 1000 years, from 600 to 1200 in 150 years, and from 2500 to 5000 in just 40 years. Between 1965 and 1970, the growth rate of the world's population reached an unprecedented peak in history - 2.1% per year.
By 1990, the total population of the planet reached 5, 2005 - 6, in 2010 - more than 6.5 billion people. According to forecasts, by 2025 about 10 billion people will live on Earth. More than half of the world's population lives in Asia - about 58, in Europe - over 17, in Africa - over 10, in North America - about 9, South America - about 6, in Australia and Oceania - 0.5%.
Numerous attempts to reduce the birth rate have been unsuccessful. There is currently a population explosion in Africa, Asia and South America. Excessive population growth needs to be addressed global problem to reduce the growth rate of the world's population, since people need a place for resettlement, for the production of material goods and food.
In Russia, in the last decade, the population has decreased annually and only stabilized by 2011 (mortality is approximately equal to the birth rate), but in this decade it will decrease again due to demographic features.
Lack of food. Despite the explosive nature of the world's population, human food resources are declining. Thus, the world production of grain, meat and fish and a number of other products per capita has been continuously declining since 1985. The forecasts came true and in 2010 the prices for wheat and rice almost doubled. In the poorest countries, this leads to mass starvation. Currently (according to official figures), one out of every five people on the planet is starving or malnourished.
By 2030, the world's population could increase by 3.7 billion people, which would require food production to double and industrial output and energy production to triple.
Energy costs per unit of agricultural production (fertilizers, water, electricity, fuel for agricultural units, etc.) have increased by almost 15 times over the past two decades, while productivity has increased by an average of only 35-40%. The growth rate of grain crop yields has slowed down even since 1990. According to experts, the efficiency of fertilizer use in the world is close to the limit.
In addition, the total area occupied by grain crops has stabilized at the level of the mid-1980s. IN last years fish stocks have been drastically reduced. Thus, from 1950 to 1989, the world catch increased from 19 to 89 million tons, but later and until now (2010) no significant increase has been observed. An increase in the size of the fishing fleet does not lead to an increase in the catch.
Thus, at the beginning of the XXI century. Humanity is facing increasing degradation of ecosystems, exacerbating poverty and widening disparities between industrialized and developing nations.
population problem
The dynamics of the population of any country depends on such basic demographic indicators as fertility, mortality and migration.
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union (1990s), there has been a significant drop in population in the CIS countries compared to the previous decade (Turkmenistan is an exception). The total population of the CIS countries at the beginning of 2001 was 280.7 million people, which is 1.6 million or 0.6% less than at the beginning of 1991.
Belarus, Russia and Ukraine, where 73% of all residents of the CIS live, have been growing since the early 1990s. entered a period of depopulation, the pace of which is accelerating. Depopulation coefficient (the ratio of the number of deaths to the number of births) in 1992-1993. amounted to 1.1 in Belarus, 1.14 in Russia, 1.18 in Ukraine, and in 2000 it rose to 1.44, 1.77 and 1.96, respectively, or by 31-66%.
By the beginning of 2001, the population of Belarus had fallen to 9.99 million people. against 10.4 million at the beginning of 1994 (the year of maximum numbers), or by 4.1%; Russia - up to 144.8 million people. against 148.7 million at the beginning of 1992, i.e. by 3.9 million, or 2.6%; Ukraine - up to 49 million against 52.2 million at the beginning of 1993, i.e. the decrease was 3.2 million, or 6.1% (Table 3). The total loss of the population of these three states during the years of reforms reached 7.5 million people, which exceeds the number of inhabitants of such states as Denmark, Slovakia, Georgia, Israel, and Tajikistan.
Most significantly - 2 million people. (11.3%) the population of Kazakhstan decreased: from 16.8 million at the beginning of 1991 to 14.8 million at the beginning of 2001. The negative result is due, along with a decrease in the birth rate, to a large and stable scale of population migration from Kazakhstan to other CIS countries (mainly Russian-speaking citizens to Russia and Germans to Germany).
Table 3. Permanent population of the CIS countries
At the beginning of the year (thousand people) |
Including |
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1996 in % to 1991 |
2001 in % to 1996 |
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Belarus |
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Moldova |
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Azerbaijan |
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Kazakhstan |
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Kyrgyzstan |
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Tajikistan |
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Turkmenistan |
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Uzbekistan |
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In the rest of the states of Central Asia, in Azerbaijan and Armenia, the demographic potential in the 1990s. continued to grow. The population of Turkmenistan increased most significantly - by 30.4%, Uzbekistan - by 20.2%, Tajikistan - by 15.7%. However, in the last five years (1996-2000) in these countries, there has been a decrease in population growth rates, which is due to a reduction in their natural increase. Only in Kyrgyzstan population growth in the second half of the 90s. 20th century increased and amounted to 6.1% against 4.6% in 1991-1995, which is associated with a sharp decrease in recent years of population migration outside the republic.
According to the age structure, the CIS countries are divided into three groups (Table 4). The first is Belarus, Georgia, Russia and Ukraine, where the oldest population, i.e. the proportion of people aged 65 years and older is the largest - 12.5-13.8%, and the proportion of children does not exceed 20.4%. Reduced average life expectancy. If in the 70s. 20th century in the USSR it was 73 years, now men live about 59 years, women - 72 years, i.e. average life expectancy is 65 years. In the US, life expectancy increased by 5 years to 78 years; in Japan, this figure is 79 years.
The second group included the states of Central Asia and Azerbaijan, which have the youngest age structure: the proportion of children in them ranges from 32% in Azerbaijan to 42% in Tajikistan, and older people - from 3.9 to 5.5%. The third group of countries - Armenia, Kazakhstan and Moldova - occupy an intermediate position: children in them are 24-29%, the elderly - 7-9%.
Table 4. Age structure of the population of the CIS countries
Population at the beginning of 2001, million people |
Share of the age group, % |
Per 1000 population aged 15-64, pers. |
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65 years and older |
65 years and older |
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Belarus |
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Kazakhstan** |
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Moldova |
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Azerbaijan |
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Kyrgyzstan |
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Tajikistan*** |
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Turkmenistan |
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Uzbekistan |
* Population at the beginning of 2000
** Age adjusted based on preliminary results of the 1999 population census *** 1998
All CIS countries are characterized further growth the number of older people and the reduction in the proportion of children. At the beginning of 2000, the proportion of the population over 65 in Belarus was 13.3% against 11% in 1991, in Russia - 12.5% (10%), Ukraine - 13.8% (12%). As a result, the demographic burden of persons over 65 years able-bodied population(aged 15 to 65 years) has increased in these countries compared with the early 90s. 20th century by 20-30%, and the demographic burden of children decreased by 10-15%.
The demographic crisis in the modern world *
V.P. MAKSAKOVSKY
The economically developed countries of the world, as already noted, have long passed the second phase of the demographic transition and entered its third phase, which is characterized by a decrease in natural population growth. Until recently, there were almost no very significant differences in this respect between them. Recently, however, this group of countries has also become quite differentiated, and now this group can also be divided into three subgroups.
Table 1
European countries with negative natural population growth
IN first subgroup includes countries where a fairly favorable demographic situation is still preserved, which is characterized by at least average birth rates and natural growth, ensuring an expanded reproduction of the population. The United States can serve as an example of a country of this kind, where the reproduction formula (birth rate - death rate = natural increase) at the end of the 90s remained at the level of 15‰ - 9‰ = 6‰. Accordingly, the average annual population growth was 0.6%. This subgroup includes Canada, France, the Netherlands, Norway, Ireland, Switzerland, where the average annual population growth was at least 0.3-0.5%. At this rate of growth, doubling of the population in these countries can be expected in 100-200 years, or even more (in Switzerland - in 250 years).
Co. second subgroup it is necessary to include countries in which, in fact, expanded reproduction of the population is no longer ensured. These include mainly European countries, where the total fertility rate fell to 1.5 in the mid-1990s. Some of these countries (for example, Poland) still have a minimal excess of births over deaths. Others, of which there are many more, have become countries with zero population growth. These are Austria, Belgium, Spain, Portugal, Denmark, Croatia, Ireland.
Finally, third subgroup unites countries with negative natural growth population, or, more simply, with its natural decline (depopulation). The total fertility rate in this group of countries is also extremely low. The number of such countries with "minus" population growth only in 1990-2000. increased from 3 to 15. All of them are located in Europe (Table 1).
It will not be a mistake to assert that the countries of the third (and in fact the second) subgroup have already entered the demographic crisis, which was brought to life by a complex of interrelated causes. First of all, they include a rapid, and sometimes downright landslide decline in the birth rate, which leads to a decrease in the proportion of young people in the population. Demographers call this phenomenon aging from below. Further, the increase in the average life expectancy of people in conditions of an increasing level of material well-being also led to a faster than expected increase in the proportion of older (“non-reproducing”) people in the population, that is, as they say, to aging top.
table 2
Population dynamics and its natural movement in Russia
However, it would be wrong to try to explain the onset of the crisis only by demographic reasons. Its occurrence was also influenced by many socio-economic, psychological, medical-social, moral factors that caused, in particular, such a phenomenon as family crisis. The average family size in the countries of the second and third subgroups has recently decreased to 2.2-3 people. Yes, and it has become much less stable - with an increase in the number of divorces, the widespread practice of cohabitation without marriage, a sharp increase in the number of illegitimate children.
If at the beginning of the 60s the number of divorces per 1000 marriages in the countries of foreign Europe ranged from 100 to 200, then at the end of the 90s it increased to 200-300. Even more egregious data on illegitimate children, the proportion of which has increased by 5-10 times over the same time. In Great Britain and France, for example, the proportion of illegitimate children exceeds 30%. It is even higher in Denmark - 40%. But the "absolute champions" in this regard were and remain Sweden, Norway and Iceland with a figure of over 50%.
All these causes and factors in the countries listed in Table. 2 are combined in different ways. So, in Germany and Italy, apparently, the influence of demographic factors really prevails. In the post-socialist countries of Central and Eastern Europe (Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, etc.), the fact that in the 1990s they had to go through a rather painful stage of reforming the political system and transitioning from a command-planned to a market economy had an effect. The same applies to Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. And in the CIS member countries (Russia, Ukraine, Belarus), the natural deterioration of the demographic situation coincided with the deep political and socio-economic crisis of the 1990s.
As for Russia, in the twentieth century. with the demographic situation, it can be said that she was not lucky. The first phase of the demographic transition ended in it by the beginning of the 20th century, but a real population explosion did not follow. Moreover, over the course of half a century, Russia experienced three demographic crises: during the First World War and the Civil War, during the years of collectivization of the countryside and severe famine, and, finally, during the Great Patriotic War. In the 60-80s, the demographic situation in the country as a whole stabilized. However, in the 1990s, a new, and especially strong, demographic crisis erupted (Table 2).
From the data in Table. 2 it follows that in the 1970s and early 1980s the demographic situation in Russia was relatively favorable. Thus, in 1983, 2.5 million children were born in the RSFSR. Then on fertility and natural increase The beginning of perestroika and the fight against alcohol abuse had a beneficial effect on the population. However, with the onset of the socio-economic crisis of the 1990s, the demographic situation deteriorated sharply. Since 1992, Russia has experienced an absolute population decline. It can be added that in the RSFSR in 1988 there were 2 more children per woman (in the USSR as a whole - 2.2 children), and by the end of the 90s, the fertility of women in the country decreased to 1.24 children, while for sustained population growth needs more than two. According to available forecasts, the population of Russia will continue to decrease in the first decades of the 21st century, when the small generation born in the 1990s will enter adulthood, and the largest generation born in the 1950s will leave the working age. As a result, by 2015 the number of inhabitants in Russia may decrease to 138 million people.
Apparently, both demographic extremes - the explosion and the crisis - have both their advantages and disadvantages. Therefore, some scientists put forward the concept of a demographic optimum, which, with a single interpretation for different regions and countries, can be quantitatively different.
* Essay from the forthcoming book "The Geographical Picture of the World". - Note. ed.