What shows the mechanical increase in population. Population migration rates
Statistics help researchers evaluate the processes that occur in the system. Various factors can be grouped, compared with other similar categories. Population and processes taking place in social sphere, are studied by statistics quite carefully. After all, this reflects the existing demographic situation at the global level.
The average annual population participates in many economic research at the macro level. Therefore, this important category of data is constantly monitored and recalculated. The importance of the indicator, as well as the methods of analysis are discussed in the article.
Population
To be able to determine the average annual population of a city, region or country, it is necessary to understand the essence of the subject of study. The demographic situation can be viewed from different angles.
The population is the total number of people who live within the boundaries of a certain area. For analysis demographic situation this indicator is considered in the context of natural reproduction (birth and death rates) and migration. They also examine the structure of the population (by age, gender, economic and social level, etc.). Also, demographic data show how the settlement of people across the territory has changed.
The population is studied by statistics using general and special methods. This allows us to draw full-fledged, deep conclusions about the development of demographic indicators.
Directions of analysis
The average annual population is estimated using different ones, depending on the purpose of the analysis. The demographic picture that has developed over a certain period of time in a particular area can be considered in terms of the dynamics of the total population.
To understand why certain changes have occurred, it is necessary to evaluate the natural movement, the migration of people. For this purpose, relevant data are included in the analysis. In order to have a complete picture of the grouping of the population, the formation of the total number of people, they are classified according to certain criteria.
For example, a study shows how many women and men live in a certain area, what age they are, how many people from able-bodied population has a qualification, the highest level of education.
Calculation formula
Various formulas are used to calculate the population. But sometimes the calculation is complicated by the collection of data for several time intervals. If there is information at the beginning and end of the period, the average annual population (formula) looks like this:
CHNmed. \u003d (ChNn.p. + ChNk.p.) / 2, where ChNav.p. - average population of the population, NNN.p. - the number of population at the beginning of the period, NPC.p. - number at the end of the period.
If statistics were collected for each month of the study period, the formula would be:
CHNmed. = (0.5CHN1 + CHN2 ... CHNp-1 + 0.5CHNp)(n-1), where CHN1, CHN2 ... CHNp-1 - the number of population at the beginning of the month, n - the number of months.
Data for analysis
The average annual population, the formula of which was presented above, takes a series of data for calculation. It is necessary to calculate the constant number of the population living in this territory (PN). It includes the actual number of people who actually live in the study area (HH).
In addition to this indicator, to study the demographic state of the country, the category of the temporarily residing population (TP) is taken into account. Also, temporarily absent people (VO) take part in the count. Only this indicator is subtracted from total amount. The resident population formula looks like this:
PN \u003d NN + VP - VO.
To distinguish between the indicator of VP and NN, a time interval of 6 months is taken into account. If a group of people lives in the study area for more than six months, they are referred to as cash, and less than six months - to the temporary population.
Population census
The average annual resident population is calculated from data. But this process requires a significant investment of time, effort and money. Therefore, it is not possible to conduct a census every month or even a year.
Therefore, in the intervals between recalculating the number of people in a certain territory, a system of logical calculations is used. Collect statistical data on births and deaths, migration movement. But over time, a certain error in the indicators accumulates.
Therefore, in order to correctly determine the average annual population, it is still necessary to conduct a periodic census.
Application of analysis data
The calculation of the average annual population is carried out in order to further study demographic processes. The result of the analysis is used in the calculation of mortality and fertility rates, natural reproduction. They are calculated for each age group.
Also, the average number is applicable in assessing the number of able-bodied and economically active population. At the same time, they can consider the totality of people who left or arrived in the territory of the country or region through migration. This makes it possible to assess the potential of the entire workforce concentrated here.
The correct distribution of labor resources is the key to economic development states. Therefore, the importance of counting the population cannot be overestimated.
Vital movement of the population
The average annual population, the calculation formula of which was discussed above, is involved in the assessment of various demographic indicators. One of them is the natural movement of the population. It is due to the natural processes of fertility and mortality.
During the year, the average population increases by the number of newborns and decreases by the number of deaths. This is the natural course of life. Relative to the average population, the coefficients of natural movement are found. If the birth rate exceeds the death rate, there is an increase (and vice versa).
Also, when conducting such an analysis, the population is broken down by age categories. This determines which group had the highest mortality. This allows us to draw a conclusion about the standard of living in the study area, the social security of citizens.
Migration
The indicator of the number of inhabitants can change not only due to natural processes. People leave to work or, conversely, come for the purpose of employment. If such migrants are or are absent at the object under study for more than 6 months, this must be taken into account in the analysis.
Significant migration flows affect the economy. changes both with a decrease and with an increase in the number of able-bodied inhabitants.
The average annual population will help to find both the coefficient of growth and decrease in the supply of labor in the region. If too many emigrants enter the country, the unemployment rate will rise. A decrease in the number of able-bodied population leads to a budget deficit, a decrease in pensions, salaries of doctors, teachers, etc. Therefore, this indicator is also extremely necessary to control the migration movement.
Economic activity
In addition to changes in the quantitative ratio of the entire population of a country or region, a structural analysis is necessarily carried out. Generally, there are three income classes.
The average annual population makes it possible to assess the purchasing power of residents and their standard of living. V developed countries Most of the society is made up of people with average incomes. They can purchase the necessary food, things, periodically make large purchases, travel.
In such states there is a small percentage of very rich and poor people. If the number of low-income residents increases significantly, a large financial burden falls on the budget. This reduces the overall standard of living.
All groups of the economically active population are presented as the average annual population.
Probability tables
To determine the average annual population without a census, the method of constructing probability tables is used. The fact is that most demographic processes can be predicted in advance. This applies to the natural movement of the population.
The table is built on the basis of several statements. The natural movement is irreversible, because you cannot die and be born twice. You can only give birth to your first child once. A certain sequence of events must be taken into account. For example, you cannot enter into a second marriage if the first has not been registered.
The population is divided into age groups. For each of them, the probability of the occurrence of a particular event is different. Next, the number of people included in each category is analyzed.
Over time, people with a certain degree of probability move into one or another group. This is how a prediction is made. For example, the category of the population that is of working age will become pensioners. Therefore, analysts are able to predict how many people will join the next group.
Planning
Planning at the macroeconomic level is impossible without statistical data. The average annual number of the active population is taken into account when studying the standard of living, purchasing power, as well as in the development of the main economic document of the country (budget).
The amount of his income and expenses cannot be predicted without taking into account the number and structure of the country's inhabitants. The more people work in the non-budgetary sphere, the higher their income level, the more significant the injections into budget funds will be.
If analysts determine a drop in input flows in the future, it is necessary to develop measures to improve the situation. Each state has its own apparatus of levers for managing demographic resources. By creating new jobs, pursuing a competent social policy, and raising the standard of living of the population, it is possible to make the country prosperous.
Analysis and planning of the demographic situation is carried out with the obligatory use of average annual population indicators, as well as other structural coefficients. Therefore, the adequacy of planning the country's budget depends on the correctness of data collection and their study.
Having considered such a concept as population, one can understand the importance of this indicator for macroeconomic analysis and planning. Many forecasts for the future of a country, region or city are made after the correct collection and processing of relevant information. This is necessary action when drawing up a budget plan and many other important financial documents.
The population of the region is characterized by the following data, thousand people:
1. At the beginning of the year:
actually lived 1504.6
including temporarily 7.3
temporarily absent 4.8
2. During the year:
born 7.8
including permanent population 7.6
died 10.2
including permanent population 10.1
arrived at a permanent place of residence 35.6
the permanent population left for permanent residence in other settlements 18.6
Define:
1) the number of the present population at the end of the year;
2) the number of resident population at the beginning and end of the year;
3) for the permanent population coefficients:
fertility, mortality, natural increase;
Vitality, turnover of the population, economy of reproduction;
Migration, intensity of migration turnover; efficiency of migration, general population growth.
Solution:
1) The number of the present population at the end of the year will be found according to the balance sheet:
HH K \u003d HH H + N - M + arrived at a permanent place of residence +
Returned from among the temporarily absent -
The permanent population left for permanent residence in other settlements
HH K and HH H - the number of the actual population at the end and beginning of the year,
N and M are the number of births and deaths in the actual population during the year.
HH K = 1504.6 + 7.8 - 10.2 + 35.6 - 18.6 = 1519.2 thousand people.
2) The number of permanent population at the beginning of the year will be found by the formula:
PN N \u003d NN N - VP N + VO N,
PN N, NN N, VP N, VO N - the number of permanent, present, temporarily resident and temporarily absent population at the beginning of the year.
PN N \u003d 1504.6 - 7.3 + 4.8 \u003d 1502.1 thousand people.
at the end of the year:
PN K \u003d PN N + N - M + P - B,
N and M - the number of births and deaths among the resident population during the year;
P and V - the number of permanent residents who arrived and left for permanent residence during the year.
PN K \u003d 1502.1 + 7.6 - 10.1 + 35.6 - 18.6 \u003d 1516.6 thousand people.
3) To calculate the coefficients of natural and mechanical growth, it is necessary to find the average number of permanent population.
Having data on the number of resident population at the beginning and end of the year, we determine the average number by the simple arithmetic formula:
The birth rate is calculated using the formula:
The mortality rate is calculated by the formula:
The coefficient of natural increase can be determined by the formula:
For every thousand people of the resident population, 5 children were born during the year, approximately 7 people died, and the natural decline was approximately 2 people.
Let's determine the vitality coefficient (Pokrovsky's indicator), which is the ratio of the number of births to the number of deaths (per year) according to the formula:
The population turnover rate is calculated using the formula:
The number of births and deaths per 1,000 people per year is 11.73 on average.
The reproduction efficiency ratio shows the share of natural increase in the total turnover of the population.
The coefficient of economy of population reproduction is equal to:
Consequently, in the region, the share of natural loss in the total turnover of the population is 14%.
Let us calculate the indicators of the mechanical movement (migration) of the population.
The mechanical movement (migration) of the population is the arrival in a given settlement and departure from it.
The arrival rate is determined by the formula:
For every 1,000 permanent residents, an average of 23 people arrived in a year.
The retirement rate is determined by the formula:
The number of dropouts for every 1,000 people in the population averaged about 12 people per year.
The coefficient of migration (mechanical growth) is calculated in two ways:
The influx of population into this territory amounted to 11 people for every 1000 people of the permanent population.
The migration turnover intensity coefficient is calculated by the formula:
The migration efficiency ratio is calculated by the formula:
Adding the coefficient of migration to the coefficient of natural increase, we obtain the coefficient of total population growth
which means an increase per 1,000 people.
ecson.ru
The essence of migration and migration growth
Simplified, the concept of "migration" is deciphered as a change of residence (moving).
The phenomenon of migration is one of the key concepts demographic process, since the functioning of the state is directly dependent on this action. Migration affects the population of the state, determining its economic situation.
concept migratory growth is indicated in demography as the difference between those who arrive in any country (region, territory) for permanent residence, and those who leave it forever.
The migration process is classified according to several criteria:
- the size;
- form;
- cause;
- character;
- time parameter;
- legal status.
Migration growth formula
To calculate the migration gain, several coefficients may be required:
- the number of people who arrived in any region (P);
- the number of people who left the region (B),
- net (balance) migration (MS).
The formula for migration growth is the difference between people who came and left the corresponding territory:
MS=P-V.
The migration growth formula can give both positive and negative results. If the resulting total is less than zero, then we can talk about "migration loss". A positive number is needed to get the opposite result.
Mechanical population growth
There is a second way to calculate the migration increase in the case when the total and natural increase is known. The mechanical gain is obtained by subtracting the natural gain from the total gain.
For certain population groups, relative values of the indicator can be calculated. For example, the number of visitors is divided by a certain number of local residents (often a thousand). The formula for migration growth in this case is as follows:
KP \u003d (P / N) * 1000.
KP - arrival factor,
P number of visitors,
H is the number of local residents.
To obtain more accurate statistics, averages over several years are calculated, which makes it possible to analyze current situation, determine immigration policy and manage the workforce.
Types of migration
In accordance with the type of migration, the peculiarity of the migration increase will also differ:
- Episodic migration (leisure, tourism, business) has no time frame or direction. Migration is not subject to control and is poorly studied.
- Circular migration is due to the need for the population to travel constantly (for example, daily trips to work or study). This type of movement does not have a significant impact on migration growth, unless a person decides to change his place of residence.
- Seasonal migration, due to which the shortage of labor is replenished, the needs of production are met.
- Irreversible migration, on which the magnitude of the migration increase most of all depends. It represents an irrevocable displacement or a complete change of residence.
en.solverbook.com
Basic concepts:
population statistics; number of resident population; average population; overall growth; natural increase; mechanical gain; overall growth rate; fertility rate; mortality rate; Pokrovsky coefficient; infant mortality rate; coefficient of mechanical population growth; the coefficient of working capacity of the entire population; number of resident population; labor resources; working population.
Population statistics(demographic statistics) studies the patterns of quantitative changes in the population. In accordance with this main task, it studies: the number, composition and movement of the population; causes and factors of population change, its migration, birth rate, mortality, life expectancy. It studies the composition of the population on various grounds - gender, age, social status, education.
Tasks of population statistics:
study of the number, location, demographic and socio-economic composition;
· analysis of reproduction and population dynamics;
· Determining the prospective size of the entire population and its individual contingents.
The population is determined as of a certain point in time, i.e. as a result of censuses. The census is currently the main method exact definition population. However, population censuses are relatively rare and population data are constantly required. Therefore, in the periods between censuses, the statistical authorities carry out the so-called current population estimate, i.e. carry out the calculation based on the data of the last census and the materials of current statistics on the movement of the population. Its calculations are specified on the basis of the results of the next census.
There are two categories of the population taken into account in the census: the permanent settlement and the actual population. TO permanent population refers to persons who usually live in a given locality, and to cash- all persons who were at the critical moment of the census in the given territory, regardless of whether they permanently reside here or temporarily. In order to determine the size of the resident population, the census process takes into account those who are temporarily absent and temporarily residing. Temporarily absent are permanent residents of the given locality temporarily out of it. Thus, those temporarily absent are part of the permanent population. Temporary residents form part of the present population.
Permanent population can be defined:
where is the actual population;
- temporarily absent;
- temporarily arrived.
Of great importance in population statistics is the indicator of the average population. Average population The population can be calculated in different ways. The most accurate method is the method of person-years lived by the population. In this case, the total number of person-years lived by a given population for the studied period of time is determined and divided by the length of this period. Often the average annual population is defined as half the sum of its population at the beginning and end of the year:
,
.
The population is the main material component of society, and the study of the patterns of its development is of great importance for the country's economy.
natural movement (birth and death rates);
migratory (mechanical) movement.
population censuses;
· current accounting of the natural movement of the population and its migration;
• sample and special demographic surveys;
registers and various population records.
The main source of population data is the census, which is conducted once every 10 years. The accounting of the population during its implementation is carried out by settlements as of a certain point in time, which is called the critical moment. In 1853, the principles of the census were formed, the main of which are still used today.
Total absolute population growth ():
or ,
where is the natural increase;
- mechanical growth.
Wherein: ; ,
where is the number of births;
- the number of deaths;
- the number of arrivals;
- the number of dropouts.
Both general and natural, and migration gains can be positive or negative. Absolute gains- these are interval indicators, they are calculated for certain periods of time (annual indicators are of the greatest importance).
Population data are presented in a territorial context (within administrative-territorial units). Structural indicators are used to characterize the distribution of the population. These are: 1) the proportion of the population living in certain regions; 2) an indicator of the physical density of the population, which is calculated as the ratio of the population to the area it occupies (the highest population density - 15539 people per 1 km 2 - in Monaco).
· small – with the number of inhabitants up to 50 thousand;
· medium - 50-100 thousand;
· large - 100-250 thousand;
· large - 250-1 million;
· the largest - more than 1 million
Studying the birth rate, death rate and natural population growth, statistics, first of all, determines their absolute size, i.e. establishes the number of births, the number of deaths and the difference between these numbers, called absolute indicator of natural population growth. These indicators are calculated for a certain period of time - a year, a month, etc.
Birth rate per 1000 people:
,
where is the number of births;
Death rate per 1000 people:
,
where M- the number of deaths.
Natural increase rate:
.
Population vitality factor(Pokrovsky):
,
Child mortality rate (rats formula):
,
where - dead before 1 year;
- born;
specific fertility rate is calculated as the ratio of the number of births () to the average number of women of reproductive age (15-49 years, ):
total fertility rate (n) is equal to the product of the special birth rate and the share of women aged 15-49 in the entire population ():
,
where .
Migration balance:
Total absolute growth: .
Mechanical population growth rate:
.
Population growth rate:
or .
Human Resources- this is the part of the population of the country that has the necessary physical development, health, education, qualifications and professional knowledge to work in the national economy. Labor force statistics studies the following categories:
population of working age;
working-age population of working age;
labor resources.
Labor force in general are potential labor resources. In addition to them, there are also existing (functioning or used) labor resources. This is part of the total labor resources employed in the national economy. The difference between potential and existing labor resources characterizes the absolute value of unused labor resources.
Working-age population This is a group of people who are able to work according to their age and state of health. Working age limits are established by labor legislation. In the Republic of Belarus, the working age population is considered to be: for men - 16-59 years; for women - 16-54. The rest of the population is considered disabled by age. It is divided into two specific groups: the pre-working age population (10-15) and the post-working age population (men aged 60 and over, women aged 55 and over). The first of them is a source of compensation for the loss and replenishment of labor resources in the future. The second is the “pension burden” on the working population.
The population of working age is not all able to work. Therefore, it is divided into the able-bodied population and the non-working population of working age. Pupils and students of working age who study off-duty at universities and vocational schools do not participate in social production, persons who are military service. In addition, they include the part of the population employed in their own household, childcare and other reasons.
The entire population
working-age population.
The working ability rate of the entire population:
,
- total population.
The working capacity coefficient of the population of working age:
,
Retirement load factor:
,
Labor force replacement rate:
,
Total load factor(coefficient of economy of the age composition) reflects the degree of load of the population of working age by the population of all non-working ages.
or .
The employed population, in addition to the able-bodied population, includes working pensioners (people of retirement age who have not retired; disabled people of I and II disability groups); working teenagers under 16.
To characterize the change in the number of labor resources in time and the speed of its change, the following are calculated: absolute increase; growth rate and growth rate of labor resources.
the exit of some people beyond the limits of working age;
transition to disability and retirement on preferential terms;
· of death.
The number of potential labor resources can be determined at the beginning and at the end of the year, with and without taking into account the balance of migration. The difference between the number of potential resources at the beginning and end of the year is the absolute natural increase (). To characterize the intensity of the reproduction of labor resources, calculate rate of natural increase ():
; ,
Natural recruitment rate:
,
Natural retirement rate:
,
where is the natural outflow.
Then the coefficient natural increase:
An indicator characterizing the demand and supply of labor - vacancy rate:
,
The level of intensity of the expected release of labor force:
.
The most important grouping of the economically active population is its division into employed and unemployed.
unemployment rate can be calculated in two ways:
Security questions for topic number 15
1. How to determine the average annual population?
2. How to find the absolute population growth per year?
3. How to determine the Pokrovsky coefficient?
4. How to determine the specific fertility rate?
5. Labor resources, main categories.
lectsia.com
Population statistics (demographic statistics) studies the patterns of quantitative changes in the population. In accordance with this main task, it studies: the number, composition and movement of the population; causes and factors of population change, its migration, birth rate, mortality, life expectancy. It studies the composition of the population on various grounds - gender, age, social status, education.
Tasks of population statistics:
study of the number, location, demographic and socio-economic composition; analysis of reproduction and population dynamics; determination of the prospective size of the entire population and its individual contingents.
The population is the starting point for calculating many indicators and is of great economic and social importance. Knowledge of it is necessary for management, economic planning and social development country. The size of a country is usually judged by its population.
The population is constantly changing due to birth and death rates, as well as due to the spatial movement of the population.
The population is determined as of a certain point in time, i.e. as a result of censuses. The census is now the main method for accurately determining the population. However, population censuses are relatively rare and population data are constantly required. Therefore, in the periods between censuses, the statistical authorities carry out the so-called current estimate of the population, i.e. carry out the calculation based on the data of the last census and the materials of current statistics on the movement of the population. Its calculations are specified on the basis of the results of the next census.
There are two categories of the population taken into account in the census: the permanent settlement and the actual population. The permanent population includes persons who usually live in this locality, and the cash population includes all persons who were at the critical moment of the census in this territory, regardless of whether they permanently or temporarily live here. In order to determine the size of the resident population, the census process takes into account those who are temporarily absent and temporarily residing. Temporarily absent are considered to be permanent residents of the given locality who have temporarily left it. Thus, those temporarily absent are part of the permanent population. Temporary residents form part of the present population.
The resident population can be determined by:
where is the actual population;
- temporarily absent;
- temporarily arrived.
Of great importance in population statistics is the indicator of the average population. The average population can be calculated in different ways. The most accurate method is the method of person-years lived by the population. In this case, the total number of person-years lived by a given population for the studied period of time is determined and divided by the length of this period. Often the average annual population is defined as half the sum of its population at the beginning and end of the year.
,
where is the population at the beginning of the year;
is the population at the end of the year.
If there are data for several dates equidistant from one another, the calculation can be made using the formula for the average chronological simple:
.
If the time distance between the dates is not the same, then the calculation is carried out according to the formula of the arithmetic average (chronological) weighted:
To calculate the change in population over time, indicators of dynamics are calculated.
The population is the main material component of society and the study of the patterns of its development is of great importance for the country's economy.
For each individual country, the total population can vary due to two factors:
natural movement (fertility and mortality); migratory (mechanical) movement.
However, not only the total population is changing, but also the composition.
Four complementary sources of population data are currently used in statistics:
population censuses; current registration of the natural movement of the population and its migration; sample and special demographic surveys; registers and various population records.
The data from these sources are used for different purposes and cannot replace each other. However, there is a close relationship between them: each source complements or continues the other.
The main source of population data is the census, which is conducted once every 10 years. The accounting of the population during its implementation is carried out by settlements as of a certain point in time, which is called the critical moment.
When characterizing the dynamics of the population, two circumstances must be taken into account:
1) it is possible to compare the population of only one category (either permanent or present);
2) if there were administrative-territorial changes, then the population data should be comparable in relation to the territory.
Total absolute population growth ():
or ,
where is the natural increase;
- mechanical growth.
Wherein ;
,
where is the number of births;
- the number of deaths;
- the number of arrivals;
- the number of dropouts.
Both general and natural, and migration gains can be positive or negative. Absolute growths are interval indicators, they are calculated for certain periods of time (annual indicators are of the greatest importance).
Population data are presented in a territorial context (within administrative-territorial units). Structural indicators are used to characterize the distribution of the population. These are: 1) the proportion of the population living in certain regions; 2) an indicator of the physical density of the population, which is calculated as the ratio of the population to the area it occupies (the highest population density - 15539 people per 1 km2 - in Monaco).
One of the main characteristics of the distribution of the population is its division into urban and rural. According to the accepted classification, cities are divided into:
small - with the number of inhabitants up to 50 thousand; medium - 50-100 thousand; large - 100-250 thousand; large - 250-1 million; largest - more than 1 million
Studying the birth rate, death rate and natural population growth, statistics, first of all, determines their absolute size, i.e. establishes the number of births, the number of deaths and the difference between these numbers, called the absolute indicator of natural population growth. These indicators are calculated for a certain period of time - a year, a month, etc.
Relative indicators are also calculated for these quantities, called coefficients.
Birth rate per 1000 people:
,
where is the number of births;
is the average population.
Mortality rate per 1000 people:
,
where M is the number of deaths.
Natural growth rate:
or equal to the difference between the birth rate and the death rate:
.
The coefficient of vitality of the population (Pokrovsky):
,
shows how many newborns are accounted for by one deceased.
Child mortality rate (Rats formula):
,
where - dead before 1 year;
- born;
- born in the year before this one.
The specific fertility rate is calculated as the ratio of the number of births () to the average number of women of reproductive age (15-49 years old):
The total fertility rate (n) is equal to the product of the special birth rate and the share of women aged 15-49 in the entire population ():
,
where .
Migration balance:
Total absolute growth: .
Mechanical population growth rate:
.
Population growth rate:
or .
Among the indicators of the natural movement of the population include indicators of marriages and divorces. The indicators of population migration are also calculated. Distinguish between immigration and emigration. Migration indicators are the number of arrivals in a given settlement, departures and the difference between them - the balance of migration. The balance can be positive (mechanical population growth) and negative. The intensity of migration and emigration, as well as the relative change in population, is defined as the ratio of these indicators to the average population, multiplied by 1000.
Labor resources are the part of the country's population that has the necessary physical development, health, education, qualifications and professional knowledge to work in the national economy. Labor force statistics studies the following categories:
population of working age; able-bodied population of working age; labor resources.
The number of labor resources of the country is primarily determined by the working-age population.
Labor resources as a whole are potential labor resources. In addition to them, there are also existing (functioning or used) labor resources. This is part of the total labor resources employed in the national economy. The difference between potential and existing labor resources characterizes the absolute value of unused labor resources.
To characterize the age structure of the population in terms of labor resources, a number of relative indicators of structure and coordination are calculated. This is the proportion of people younger than working age, working age and older than working age in the total population. The higher the proportion of people of working age, the more effective the age structure of the population is in terms of labor resources.
The able-bodied population is a set of people capable of work by age and state of health. Working age limits are established by labor legislation. In the Republic of Belarus, the working age population is considered to be: for men - 16-59 years; for women - 16 - 54. The rest of the population is considered disabled according to the age criterion. It is divided into two specific groups: the pre-working age population (10-15) and the post-working age population (men aged 60 and over, women aged 55 and over). The first of them is a source of compensation for the loss and replenishment of labor resources in the future. The second is the “pension burden” on the working population.
The population of working age is not all able to work. Therefore, it is divided into the able-bodied population and the non-working population of working age. Students of working age who study off-duty at universities and vocational schools, and persons in military service do not participate in social production. In addition, they include a part of the population employed in their household, taking care of children and other reasons).
The second group includes the population of working age, having I and II groups of disability and persons receiving a pension on preferential terms.
The number of labor resources is determined as of a certain point in time. When calculating a number of indicators, the average annual number of labor resources is used, which is determined in the same way as the average annual population.
On the basis of these contingents of the population, two coefficients of working capacity are determined:
the entire population; working age population.
The coefficient of working capacity of the entire population:
,
where is the working-age population of working age;
- the entire population.
The working capacity coefficient of the population of working age:
,
where is the working-age population.
Retirement load factor:
,
where is the population of retirement age.
Labor force replacement rate:
,
where is the pre-working age population.
The total load factor (factor of economy of the age composition) reflects the degree of load of the population of working age by the population of all non-working ages:
or .
The employed population, in addition to the able-bodied population, includes working pensioners (people of retirement age who have not retired; disabled people of I and II disability groups), working adolescents under 16 years of age.
To characterize the change in the number of labor resources over time and the rate of its change, the absolute growth, growth rate and growth rate of labor resources are calculated.
The change in the number of labor resources from one date to another within a year is called the movement of labor resources. There are natural and mechanical movement of labor resources.
The natural movement is made up of the replenishment of potential labor resources due to the transition of the younger generation to working age (15-16) and their loss due to:
exit of some people beyond working age; transition to disability and retirement on preferential terms; of death.
With mechanical movement, replenishment occurs due to immigration, and a decrease due to the emigration of the population.
The number of potential labor resources can be determined at the beginning and at the end of the year, with and without taking into account the balance of migration. the difference between the number of potential resources at the beginning and end of the year is the absolute natural increase (). To characterize the intensity of the reproduction of labor resources, the coefficient of natural increase () is calculated:
; ,
where is the coefficient of natural replenishment;
– coefficient of natural retirement;
- the average annual number of labor resources.
Natural recruitment rate:
,
where is the natural completion.
Natural retirement rate:
,
where is the natural outflow.
Then the coefficient of natural increase:
An indicator that characterizes the demand and supply of labor is the vacancy rate:
,
where is the declared number for the required labor force;
- the average number of employees of the enterprise.
The level of intensity of the expected release of labor force:
.
Unemployment rate:
Important for the Republic of Belarus and its regions are indicators that characterize the age structure of the population in terms of labor resources.
Control questions
How to determine the average annual population? How to find absolute population growth per year? How to determine the Pokrovsky coefficient? How to determine the specific fertility rate? Labor resources, main categories. How to calculate the pension burden ratio of the population?
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Migration- the movement of people between separate territories, associated with a permanent, temporary or seasonal change of residence.
Reasons for migrations:
- economic;
- political;
- national;
- religious.
Population migrations- the leading cause of the most important changes that have occurred in the resettlement of people on Earth over the past centuries.
The movement of people across a territory is called mechanical movement of the population or population migration. At the same time, internal and external (outside the country) migration are distinguished.
Internal migration
Internal migration is population movement from rural to urban, which in many countries is the source of urban growth (it is often called the "great migration of the peoples of the 20th century."). Territorial redistribution of the population also occurs between large and small cities. Both of these species are very widely represented, in particular, in Russia.
Although internal migration is typical for all states, in different countries they are at different stages of development. V developing countries flows of rural residents who do not have land and work, rush to the cities, and in the most developed countries, "reverse" migrations of the population (from cities to suburbs, and partly to rural areas) predominate.
External migration
Types of external migration:- emigration - the departure of citizens from their country to another for permanent residence or for a more or less long period
- immigration - the entry of citizens into another country for permanent residence or a more or less long term.
External migrations, which arose in ancient times, were most developed in the era of capitalism. In countries where external migrations of the population are becoming massive, they can have a significant impact on its numbers, for example, in the USA, Canada, Australia, and Israel. At present, the flows of intracontinental migrations have increased. At the same time, it has become especially widespread. This especially affected Western Europe, which turned from a center of emigration (existing for several centuries) into a center of attraction from 7 countries of the Mediterranean and Asia. Important centers of labor immigration are the United States and the oil-producing countries of the Middle East.
In the second half of the XX century. appeared new form external migrations, known as the "brain drain". It first appeared after the Second World War, when several thousand scientists were taken from Germany to the United States. Today, along with the "brain drain" from Europe, there is a departure from developing countries.
Study of population migration
The analysis of data on migration shows where, from where and in what quantity the population moves in the country.
Population migration is studied using absolute and relative indicators.
Absolute Migration Rates
1. Number of arrivals to this locality (P)
2. Number of dropouts from this locality (B)
3. Mechanical gain population (MP = P - V)
Relative migration rates
TO relative performance include the arrival rate, the departure rate, and the mechanical growth rate.
The coefficients given below are calculated per promissle, i.e. per 1000 population.
arrival rate
Shows how many people arrive in a given region on average for every 1000 people of the population during a calendar year:
Retirement rate
Shows how many people left the region on average per 1000 people per year:
Mechanical gain coefficient
It characterizes the amount of mechanical growth per 1000 people of the population of the region per year, and is calculated in two ways:
In 2000, 350,873 people arrived in Russia, and 160,763 people left the Russian Federation in the same year.
Vital movement of the population is the change in population due to births and deaths.
The study of natural movement is carried out using absolute and relative indicators.
Absolute indicators
1. Number of births for the period(R)
2. Number of deaths per period(U)
3. Natural increase (decrease) population, which is defined as the difference between the number of births and deaths for the period: SP \u003d P - Y
Relative indicators
Among the indicators of population movement, there are: the birth rate, the death rate, the natural increase rate and the vitality rate.
All coefficients, except for the vitality coefficient, are calculated in ppm, i.e., per 1000 people of the population, and the vitality coefficient is determined as a percentage (i.e., per 100 population).
total fertility rate
Shows how many people are born during the calendar year on average for every 1000 people in the current population
Crude death rate
Shows how many people die during a calendar year on average for every 1000 people in the present population and is determined by the formula:
Mortality rate in Russia (number of deaths per 1,000 population) from 11.2 ppm in 1990 increased to 15.2 in 2006, and the birth rate decreased respectively from 13.4 to 10.4 ppm in 2006.
High mortality is associated with a steady upward trend in morbidity. In comparison with our ailments, they become chronic for 15-20 years. Hence the massive disability and premature mortality.
Natural increase rate
It shows the amount of natural increase (decrease) of the population during the calendar year on average per 1000 people of the present population and is calculated in two ways:
Vitality factor
Shows the ratio between fertility and mortality, characterizes the reproduction of the population. If the Vitality Factor is less than 100%, then the population of the region is dying out, if it is above 100%, then the population is increasing. This ratio is determined in two ways:
Special indicators
V demographic statistics in addition to general coefficients, special indicators are also calculated:
marriage rate
Shows the number of marriages per 1,000 people during a calendar year.
Marriage rate = (number of people who got married / average annual population) * 1000
Divorce rate
Shows how many divorces occur for every thousand of the population during the calendar year. For example, in 2000 in Russia there were 6.2 marriages and 4.3 divorces for every 1,000 people.
To divorce rate = (number of persons divorced per year / average annual population) * 1000
infant death rate
It is calculated as the sum of two components (in ppm).
- The first is the ratio of the number of deaths under the age of one year from the generation born in that year, for which the coefficient is calculated, to total number born this year.
- The second is the ratio of the number of deaths under the age of one year from the generation born in the previous year to the total number of births in the previous year.
In 2000, this indicator in our country was 15.3‰.
To infant mortality = (number of deaths of children under the age of 1 year / number of live births per year) * 1000
Age-specific fertility rate
Shows the average number of births per 1,000 women in each age group
Special birth rate (fertility)
Shows the average number of births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 49.
Age-specific mortality rate
Shows the average number of deaths per 1,000 people in a given age group.
total fertility rate
It depends on the age composition of the population and shows how many children, on average, one woman would give birth to throughout her life if the existing birth rate was maintained at each age.
Life expectancy at birth
One of the most important indicators calculated in the international. It shows the number of years that, on average, a person from the generation born would have to live, provided that throughout the life of this generation, age-sex mortality remains at the level of the year for which this indicator was calculated. It is calculated by compiling and analyzing life tables, in which the number of survivors and deaths is calculated for each generation.
Life expectancy at birth in 2000 was 65.3 years in Russia, including 59.0 for men; for women - 72.2 years.
Population reproduction efficiency coefficient
Shows the share of natural increase in the total turnover of the population
Instruction
Population growth is the sum of the values of two indicators - natural and migration growth. This is the difference between the current level of the demographic situation and the level of an earlier period. The time period for which the calculation is made is called the settlement period and can be short-term (from a month to several years) and long-term (5, 10, 15, 25, 100 years).
Natural increase is positive between the number of births and deaths (the number of births is greater than the number of deaths). For example, in Russia, according to data for 2009, 151.7 thousand people were born, 150.7 thousand people died, which means that the natural increase in the population amounted to a thousand people. It is believed that if it exceeds mortality, then the reproduction of the population is expanded. If these numbers are approximately equal, then reproduction is simple. If the death rate exceeds the birth rate, then reproduction is narrowed, a strong demographic decline is observed.
Migration (or mechanical) growth is a positive difference between the number of people who arrived in the country from other countries and the number of citizens who left it.
Population growth rates are used to determine the overall picture of demographic change in a country. The rate of natural increase is the difference between the number of births and deaths in a given period divided by the total population. The coefficient of migration growth of the population is the difference between the number of citizens who arrived in the country and the number of those who left, divided by the total number. Accordingly, the overall population growth rate is the sum of these rates.
note
Population growth is usually measured as a percentage, so the resulting coefficient must be multiplied by 100. The total population is taken at the beginning of the billing period.
Based on the data obtained and the analysis of the population growth rate, it is possible to predict the development of the situation in the coming periods.
Sources:
- population calculate
- How to calculate natural population growth per 1000 people
Assessment of the demographic situation in the country is the basis for forecasting the needs and labor resources of society and, as a result, production volumes to meet the needs of the population. To complete the analysis, it is necessary to determine the natural and migration increase and sum these values.
Instruction
To analyze the demographic situation in the country, absolute and relative values of two types of growth are used: mechanical (migration) and natural. The second indicator characterizes the difference between the number of births and citizens for a certain period of time.
In order for the data to be as correct as possible, statistical methods are used to track the slightest changes. These methods include birth and death control by special authorities. The data for this comes from maternity hospitals and hospitals and is documented.
If the number of births for a certain period exceeds the number of deaths, then they speak of expanded reproduction of the population. If they are about the same, it's a simple reproduction. If the difference between them is negative, then it is narrowed, which indicates a demographic decline and requires the introduction of emergency measures to stimulate the birth rate.
The absolute assessment of natural increase consists in calculating the arithmetic difference between the volume of reproduction at the end and beginning of the period, which can be any calendar interval, from a month to 5 years (short-term analysis) to decades: from 5 to 100 years (long-term analysis).
For example, suppose that in a month the number of births was 155,000 people, and the number of deaths was 153,000. Then there is a natural increase of 2,000 inhabitants. This can be considered a simple reproduction, since the difference is small compared to both values.
Relative assessment of natural growth is carried out by calculating the coefficients. In this case, the absolute value is referred to the total number of inhabitants. Thus, a certain value is obtained, which can be expressed as a percentage. For example: at the beginning of the year, the population of the country is 50 million people. In a year, 1 million people were born, and 850,000 people died. The absolute rate of natural increase in this case is 150,000, and the relative one is (150,000/50,000,000) 100% = 0.3%.
Related videos
Tip 3: How to determine the rate of natural increase
The economic and social planning of any country is based on the projected change in the population. Citizens are both its labor and consumer resources, for the evaluation of which it is necessary to determine the rate of natural increase.
Instruction
The name of the indicator of natural increase speaks for itself. This is an increase or decrease caused by processes: childbirth and death. The value and sign of this value depends on the ratio of these two demographic factors.
If the number of births during the period under consideration exceeds the number of deaths, then expanded reproduction takes place, in the case of approximate equality - simple. Well, the situation in which the death rate is higher than the birth rate is characterized by narrowed reproduction.