Demographic situation in developed and developing countries. Demographic problem and population explosion
The economically developed countries of the world, as already noted, have long passed the second phase of the demographic transition and entered its third phase, which is characterized by a decrease in the indicators of natural population growth. Until recently, there were hardly any very significant differences in this respect between them. However, in recent times in this group of countries, a fairly strong differentiation also began to occur, and now it can also be subdivided into three subgroups.
The first subgroup includes countries where a rather favorable demographic situation still persists, for which at least average fertility and natural growth rates are characteristic, providing expanded reproduction of the population. An example of a country of this kind is the United States, where the "formula" of reproduction (fertility - mortality = natural growth) in 2005 remained at the level of 14.1% - 8.2% = 5.2%. Accordingly, the average annual population growth was 1%. This subgroup includes Canada, France, the Netherlands, Norway, where the average annual population growth was at least 0.3–0.5%. At this rate of growth, a doubling of the population in these countries can be expected in 100-200 years.
The second subgroup should include countries in which, in fact, expanded reproduction of the population is no longer ensured. These include mainly European countries, for which the total fertility rate back in the mid-1990s. decreased to 1.5. Some of these countries still have a minimal excess of births over deaths. Others, of which there are many more, have become countries with "zero" population growth. This is, for example, Sweden.
Finally, the third subgroup unites countries with negative natural population growth, or, more simply, with natural population decline (depopulation).
Table 40
The total fertility rate in this group of countries is also extremely low. The number of such countries with "minus" population growth only in 1990–2000. increased from 3 to 15. In 2005, there were 15 of them, but the composition changed somewhat (Table 40).
It would not be a mistake to say that the countries of the third (and in fact, the second) subgroup have already entered a period of demographic crisis, which was caused by a complex of interrelated causes. First of all, they include a rapid, and sometimes downright landslide, decline in the birth rate, which leads to a decrease in the proportion of young people in the population. This phenomenon is sometimes referred to by demographers as aging from below. Further, an increase in the average life expectancy of people in conditions of an increasing level of material well-being also led to a faster than expected increase in the proportion of persons of older ("non-reproducing") ages in the population, that is, as they say, to aging from above.
However, it would be wrong to try to explain the current crisis only by demographic reasons. Its emergence was also influenced by many socio-economic, psychological, medico-social, moral factors, which caused, in particular, such a phenomenon as a family crisis. The average family size in countries of the second and third subgroups has recently decreased to 2.2–3 persons. And it has become much less durable - with the increase in the number of divorces, the widespread practice of cohabitation without registration of marriage, a sharp increase in the number of illegitimate children.
Back in the early 1960s. the number of divorces per 1000 marriages in foreign European countries ranged from 100 to 200, but already at the end of the 1990s. it increased to 200–300. Even more frightening is the data on children born out of wedlock, the proportion of which has increased 5-10 times during the same period. In the UK and France, for example, the proportion of children born out of wedlock exceeds 30%. It is even more in Denmark - 40%. But Sweden, Norway and Iceland have been and remain the "absolute champions" in this respect, with an indicator above 50%.
All of these causes and factors are combined in different ways in the countries listed in table 40. So, in Germany and Italy, apparently, the influence of demographic factors really prevails. In the post-socialist countries of Central-Eastern Europe (Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, etc.), the fact that in the 1990s. they had to go through a rather painful stage of reforming the political system and the transition from command-planned to market economy... The same applies to Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. And in Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, the natural deterioration of the demographic situation coincided with the deep political and socio-economic crisis of the 1990s.
As for Russia, in the XX century. with the demographic situation, one might say, she was unlucky. The first phase of the demographic transition ended there by the beginning of the twentieth century, but a real demographic explosion did not follow. Moreover, over the course of half a century, Russia experienced three demographic crises: during the First World War and the Civil War, during the years of collectivization of the village and severe famine, and, finally, during the Great Patriotic War. In the 60s-80s. XX century the demographic situation in the country as a whole has stabilized, and back in 1989 the "formula" of the natural movement of the population looked like this: 19.6% - 10.6% = 9%. However, in the 1990s. a new, and especially strong, demographic crisis broke out (Table 41).
From the data in table 41 it follows that in the 70s - early 80s. XX century the demographic situation in Russia was relatively favorable. So, in 1983, 2.5 million children were born in the RSFSR. Then, the beginning of perestroika and the fight against alcohol abuse had a beneficial effect on the birth rate and natural population growth. However, with the onset of the socio-economic crisis of the 1990s. the demographic situation has deteriorated sharply. Since 1992, there has been an absolute population decline in Russia. It can be added that in the RSFSR in 1988 there were 2 more children per woman (in the USSR as a whole - 2.2 children), and by the end of the 1990s. the fertility of women in the country dropped to 1.17 children, while more than two are needed for sustainable population growth. The number of marriages per 1000 inhabitants in 2000 decreased to 6.3 (in 1955 - 12.1), and the number of divorces increased to 4.3 (in 1955 - 0.8). According to available forecasts, the population of Russia will continue to decline in the first decades of the 21st century, when a small generation born in the 1990s will enter adulthood, and the largest generation born in the 50s will leave the working age. ... XX century As a result, by 2015 the number of inhabitants in Russia may decrease (according to the average version) to 134 million people.
Table 41
In conclusion, it should be noted that, apparently, both demographic extremes - the explosion and the crisis - have both their advantages and disadvantages. Therefore, some scientists put forward the concept of demographic optimum, which, if interpreted uniformly for different regions and countries, may not be the same quantitatively.
Demographic problems in the world are part of the so-called global problems. Global problems are problems that affect the whole world and for their solution, the efforts of all mankind are needed. These problems arose in the second half of the 20th century, and in the 21st century they continue to worsen. Their feature is a stable relationship with each other.
The demographic problem itself is divided into two parts:
- The problem of a sharp increase in population in Asia, Africa and Latin America.
- The problem of population decline and aging in Western Europe, Japan and Russia.
The problem of increasing population in Asia, Africa and Latin America
Demographic problems in the world became especially relevant in the second half of the 20th century. During this time, significant changes took place in social sphere life of society:
- First, medicine has made great strides forward thanks to the use of new drugs and new medical technology. As a result, it was possible to cope with epidemics of diseases that previously destroyed hundreds of thousands of people, and to reduce mortality from some other dangerous diseases.
- Secondly, since the middle of the 20th century, humanity has not waged global wars that could reduce the population on a large scale.
As a result, mortality rates have dropped sharply worldwide. The population of the planet at the beginning of the 21st century reached 7 billion people. Of these, about 6 billion live in the countries of the Third World - Asia, Africa and Latin America. It was in these countries that a process took place, which is usually called a population explosion.
The main reasons for the demographic explosion in the countries of the Third World:
- There are still high birth rates, along with low mortality.
- The important role of traditional religious and national values that prohibit abortion and the use of contraceptives.
- In some countries of Central Africa, the influence of the rudiments of pagan culture. And as a result - a low level of morality and promiscuous sex.
In the 1950s and 1960s, the aftermath of the population explosion inspired optimistic hopes in the population. However, it later became apparent that a sharp increase in the birth rate leads to a number of problems:
- The problem of the number of working-age population. In a number of countries, the number of children under 16 is equal, and in some even exceeds, the number of adults.
- The problem of the lack of territories that satisfy necessary conditions for the life and development of citizens.
- Food shortage problem.
- The problem of lack of raw materials.
Thus, the demographic problem is closely related to a number of other global problems.
At the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries in a number of Third World countries on state level a policy was introduced to stimulate a decrease in the birth rate of the population. This applies, first of all, to China and India, where the mottoes from the series “One family - one child” have become widespread. Families with one or two children began to receive benefits from the government. This gave certain results, and the birth rate was somewhat reduced. But population growth in these countries is still very high.
Features of the demographic situation in developed countries
Demographic problems in the world have greatly affected the developed countries of the West. In these countries, there has been a clear trend towards aging and declining populations over the past fifty years.
That is, on the one hand, the number of elderly people and life expectancy are increasing. Reasons: improving the level of medical and social services for citizens.
On the other hand, the birth rate is sharply decreasing, which means that the percentage of the young population is decreasing.
The developed countries of the world from the point of view of the demographic situation can be conditionally divided into several groups:
- Countries where there is population growth due to their own birth rate. That is, the birth rate in the country exceeds the death rate. These are Slovakia, Ireland, France, England.
- Countries that still retain population growth due to fertility, but growth due to migration is higher: Spain, Holland, Finland, Cyprus, USA, Canada, Italy, Greece, Germany.
- States where the population is decreasing due to the excess of mortality over birth rate and due to the emigration of their population to other countries: Bulgaria, the Baltic countries, Poland.
What are the reasons for the decline in fertility in the West? These are, first of all:
- The consequences of the sexual revolution of the 1960s and 70s, when various methods of contraception were widely used.
- Interest in career advancement in the service field, which usually significantly increases the time threshold for marriage and the appearance of children in Western countries.
- Family crisis in modern society: Increased divorce rate and unregistered cohabitation.
- Increase in the number of same-sex marriages.
- The very modern Western culture of "comfort". It does not stimulate parents to spend additional efforts on the upbringing and material support of several children.
Further continuation of the process of reducing the birth rate in Western countries threatens them with the extinction of their own population and its replacement by immigrants from Asian and African countries. The beginning of this process can be seen in Europe even now, analyzing the recent events with immigrants from the Third World countries.
The current demographic situation in Russia
Demographic problems in the world have also affected Russia. Our country can be attributed to the European countries of the second group. That is, we have a small increase in the population, but it is carried out with the help of not only the birth rate, but also immigration from the CIS countries. In 2016, the death rate in Russia exceeds the birth rate by about 70 thousand per year. Migrates to the country, for the same time period, about 200 thousand.
Reasons for the demographic problem in Russia:
- The aftermath of the economic and social decline of the 1990s. Low standard of living, which many families justify their unwillingness to have children. However, it should be taken into account that the high standard of living in the countries of Western Europe, in practice, leads, on the contrary, to a decrease in the birth rate in this region.
- The absence in society, as a result of many years of communist rule, of solid religious foundations, as in a number of Catholic and Muslim countries abroad.
- Wrong state policy, as a result of which large families received minimal benefits in the country for many years.
- Lack of anti-abortion propaganda at the state level. Russia takes one of the first places in the world in terms of the number of abortions, along with Vietnam, Cuba and Ukraine.
Government policy aimed at last years financial support for families who decided to have a second and third child, has given its results.
Improving medical care also played a role. The birth rate in the country has increased significantly, while the death rate has decreased slightly.
However, it is necessary to create in Russia long-term and large-scale programs aimed at stimulating the birth rate, supporting large families, single mothers, to reduce the number of abortions. Big role can also play government activities, aimed at increasing the moral level of the population.
Demographic crisis in the modern world *
V.P. MAKSAKOVSKY
The economically developed countries of the world, as already noted, have long passed the second phase of the demographic transition and entered its third phase, which is characterized by a decrease in the indicators of natural population growth. Until recently, there were hardly any very significant differences in this respect between them. Recently, however, this group of countries also began to experience a fairly strong differentiation, and now this group can also be subdivided into three subgroups.
Table 1
European countries with negative natural population growth
V first subgroup includes countries where a rather favorable demographic situation still persists, for which at least average fertility and natural growth rates are characteristic, providing expanded reproduction of the population. An example of a country of this kind is the United States, where the reproduction formula (fertility - mortality = natural increase) at the end of the 90s remained at the level of 15 ‰ - 9 ‰ = 6 ‰. Accordingly, the average annual population growth was 0.6%. This subgroup includes Canada, France, the Netherlands, Norway, Ireland, Switzerland, where the average annual population growth was at least 0.3-0.5%. With such a rate of growth, a doubling of the population in these countries can be expected in 100-200 years, or even more (in Switzerland - in 250 years).
NS second subgroup it is necessary to include countries in which, in fact, expanded reproduction of the population is no longer ensured. These include mainly European countries, where the total fertility rate dropped to 1.5 in the mid-90s. Some of these countries (for example, Poland) still have a minimal excess of fertility over mortality. Others, of which there are many more, have become countries with zero population growth. These are Austria, Belgium, Spain, Portugal, Denmark, Croatia, Ireland.
Finally, third subgroup brings together countries with negative natural growth population, or, more simply, with its natural loss (depopulation)... The total fertility rate in this group of countries is also extremely low. The number of such countries with "minus" population growth only in 1990-2000. increased from 3 to 15. All of them are located in Europe (Table 1).
It will not be a mistake to say that the countries of the third (and in fact, the second) subgroup have already entered the demographic crisis, which was brought to life by a complex of interrelated causes. First of all, they include a rapid, and sometimes downright landslide decline in the birth rate, which leads to a decrease in the proportion of young people in the population. Demographers call this phenomenon aging from below... Further, an increase in the average life expectancy of people in conditions of an increasing level of material well-being also led to a faster than expected increase in the proportion of persons of an older ("non-reproducing") age in the population, that is, as they say, to aging from above.
table 2
Population dynamics and natural movement in Russia
However, it would be wrong to try to explain the current crisis only by demographic reasons. Its occurrence was also influenced by many socio-economic, psychological, medico-social, moral factors, which caused, in particular, such a phenomenon as family crisis... The average family size in countries of the second and third subgroups has recently decreased to 2.2-3 people. And it has become much less durable - with the increase in the number of divorces, the widespread practice of cohabitation without registration of marriage, a sharp increase in the number of illegitimate children.
If at the beginning of the 60s the number of divorces per 1000 marriages in the countries of foreign Europe ranged from 100 to 200, then at the end of the 90s it increased to 200-300. Even more egregious data on children born out of wedlock, whose share has increased 5-10 times during the same time. In the UK and France, for example, the proportion of children born out of wedlock exceeds 30%. It is even higher in Denmark - 40%. But Sweden, Norway and Iceland have been and remain the "absolute champions" in this respect with over 50%.
All these reasons and factors in the countries listed in table. 2 are combined in different ways. So, in Germany and Italy, apparently, the influence of demographic factors really prevails. In the post-socialist countries of Central-Eastern Europe (Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, etc.), it was affected by the fact that in the 90s they had to go through a rather painful stage of reforming the political system and the transition from a command-planned to a market economy. The same applies to Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. And in the CIS countries (Russia, Ukraine, Belarus), the natural deterioration of the demographic situation coincided with the deep political and socio-economic crisis of the 90s.
As for Russia, in the twentieth century. with the demographic situation, one might say, she was unlucky. The first phase of the demographic transition ended there by the beginning of the twentieth century, but a real demographic explosion did not follow. Moreover, over the course of half a century, Russia experienced three demographic crises: during the First World War and the Civil War, during the years of collectivization of the countryside and severe famine, and, finally, during the Great Patriotic War. In the 60-80s, the demographic situation in the country as a whole stabilized. However, in the 90s, a new, and especially strong, demographic crisis broke out (Table 2).
From the data table. 2 it follows that in the 70s - early 80s the demographic situation in Russia was relatively favorable. So, in 1983, 2.5 million children were born in the RSFSR. Then the beginning of perestroika and the fight against alcohol abuse had a beneficial effect on the birth rate and natural population growth. However, with the onset of the socio-economic crisis of the 90s, the demographic situation deteriorated sharply. Since 1992, there has been an absolute population decline in Russia. It can be added that in the RSFSR in 1988 there were 2 more children per woman (in the USSR as a whole - 2.2 children), and by the end of the 90s, the fertility of women in the country decreased to 1.24 children, while for sustainable population growth needs more than two. According to available forecasts, the population of Russia will continue to decline in the first decades of the 21st century, when a small generation born in the 90s will enter adulthood, and the largest generation born in the 50s will leave the working age. As a result, by 2015 the number of residents in Russia may decrease to 138 million people.
Apparently, both demographic extremes - the explosion and the crisis - have both their advantages and disadvantages. Therefore, some scientists put forward the concept of the demographic optimum, which, if interpreted uniformly for different regions and countries, may be quantitatively different.
* An essay from the forthcoming book "The Geographical Picture of the World". - Approx. ed.
The essence demographic problem consists in the accelerated growth of the world's population. It can be traced by analyzing the periods of time through which the population of the Earth reached every billion inhabitants.
Obviously, in the second half of the XX century. the time to reach each next billion has sharply decreased, which characterizes the extremely rapid growth of the world's population.
The question arises: "What is the main reason for such a rapid population growth?" It lies in the peculiarities of the demographic situation in the countries of the world, and above all in the developing countries. The observed in them low labor productivity in agriculture(it is the main branch of the economy), communal ownership of land (the more people in the community, the larger its land allotment), as well as religious beliefs and traditions entail an increase in the birth rate, and therefore - large families.
Rice. 1. Periods of time through which the population of the Earth reached every billion inhabitants
However, if in the past the high birth rate, so to speak, was “balanced” by high mortality (due to hunger, disease and epidemics) and the population growth as a result occurred moderately, then after the Second World War, the achievements of modern civilization that came to developing countries, entailed the opposite consequences and led to extremely rapid population growth due to high natural increase, which is called the "population explosion".
Rice. 2. Causes of the global demographic problem
The essence of the changes that have occurred is reflected in the diagram (Fig. 1). The diagram in Fig. 2 and tab. 1 allow us to conclude that the main reason for the "population explosion" is the lack of effective birth control.
Table 1. Demographic indicators for different types countries
However, demographic problems are more complex and multifaceted, and there are significant geographic differences. In developing countries of the world, a type of reproduction is widespread, characterized by a relatively high birth rate, mortality and natural growth (type I), and in developed countries - the opposite type, manifested in more low levels demographic processes(Type II).
In other words, there are two problems: if developing countries are experiencing a "population explosion", then a number of countries in the world are characterized by a "demographic crisis", that is, a decrease in the population due to the excess of deaths over births, which entails natural population decline.
At the end of the XX century. the number of such countries has reached two dozen: Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia, the Baltic countries, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Germany, etc. The decline in fertility in these countries is mainly due to their socio-economic development.
Let us compare the demographic situation in each of the groups of countries for individual elements and identify different geographic aspects demographic problems.
Table 2. Demographic situation in developed and developing countries
Conclusion: every country in the world has its own demographic problems of a different nature and degree of complexity, determined by differences in the levels of economic, social and cultural development, the religious composition of the population and the history of the state.
The consequences of demographic problems can be as follows:
- extremely rapid growth of the world's population;
- high natural population growth in developing countries, far exceeding their capabilities in solving problems of socio-economic development, thereby increasing their backwardness;
- increasing unevenness in the distribution of the world's population (9/10 of the world's population lives in developing countries).
Rice. 3. Consequences of demographic problems
Consequently, demographic problems entail the intensification of other global problems, including food, geoecological and many others.
Population explosion: problem statement
The modern stage of human development is characterized by an accelerated population growth.
Ten thousand years ago there were about 10 million people on Earth, by the beginning of our era there were 200 million, by 1650 - 500 million, by the 19th century. - 1 billion. In 1900, the population was 1 billion 660 million. In 1950, despite losses in two world wars, the population increased to 2.5 billion, and then one hundred
la to increase annually by 70-100 million (Fig. 17). In 1993, 5.5 billion people live on Earth. On October 12, 1999, at 0:02 am, a boy was born in one of the maternity hospitals in Sarajevo, who became the 6 billionth inhabitant of the planet. On February 26, 2006, the world's population reached another record figure of 6.5 billion people, and their number is increasing by 2% per year.
Rice. 17. Growth in the world's population
Today, about 6.4 billion people live on Earth, and the population is growing by 2% per year. It is expected that by 2050 there will be 8.9 billion earthlings.
The growth of the world's population in the middle of the XX century. acquired a rapid pace and was called the demographic explosion. Population explosion- a sharp increase in the rate of growth of the population of the Earth, associated with changes in socio-economic or general environmental conditions of life.
Currently, about 180 people are born every minute on the planet, 21 people are born and 19 people die every second. Thus, the population of the Earth is increasing by 2 people per second, by 250 thousand daily. Over the year, the increase is approximately 80 million, and it is almost all accounted for by developing countries. In our time, doubling
the number of people on the planet occurs in 35 years, and the production of poverty is growing at 2.3% per year and doubling in 30 years.
It should be noted that the population problem is not directly related to the number of inhabitants on our planet. The earth can feed more people. The problem lies in the uneven distribution of people on the planet's surface.
There are human settlements in almost all corners of the Earth, although in some regions, such as Antarctica, there are no conditions for permanent residence... In other rugged areas, small groups of people live with special lifestyles. Most of the world's population is concentrated in a relatively small area. In the early 1990s. almost half of the 5.4 billion inhabitants of the planet occupied only 5% of its area. Conversely, only 5% of its population lived on half of the Earth's area. About 30% of the world's population is concentrated in South and Southeast Asia, including India, Indonesia and Pakistan, 25% - in East Asia, including China and Japan. Many people also live in eastern North America and Europe.
Residents of predominantly agricultural countries are more evenly distributed. In India, where 73% of the population lives in countryside, its average density in 1990 was 270 people per 1 km 2. But here, too, there are significant fluctuations. For example, the population density in the middle of the Gangetic Plain is three times higher than the national average.
In Africa and South America, the average population density by country is much lower. The most populous country in Africa is Nigeria (130 people per sq km). Among the South American countries, only in Ecuador, this figure exceeds 30 people per 1 km 2. Significant areas of the Earth still remain almost uninhabited. In Australia, there are 2.2 people per 1 km 2, in Mongolia - only 1.4.
Despite the seemingly huge number of people on the planet - about 6 billion 400 million, hypothetically, all of them can be located on an area of 6400 km 2, if 1 m 2 is allocated for each inhabitant. This area corresponds to the area of Lake Issyk-Kul (Republic of Kyrgyzstan) or three areas of Lake Geneva in Switzerland. The rest of the world would be free. For comparison, note that the area of such a European dwarf state as Luxembourg is 2,600 km 2, the area of the Spanish Canary Islands is 7,200 km 2.
The constantly increasing population of the world requires more and more food and energy, mineral resources, which causes increasing pressure on the biosphere of the planet.
Analysis of the current situation in the distribution of the population on the globe made it possible to identify some patterns.
- Population growth is extremely uneven. It is maximum in developing countries and minimum in developed countries Europe and America.
- The rapid population growth violates its age ratio: the percentage of the disabled population - children, adolescents, the elderly - is increasing. The share of children under 15 years old in most developing countries reaches 50%, and people over 65 years old - ranges from 10 to 15%.
- The population density is increasing. The accelerated process of urbanization is accompanied by the concentration of the population in large cities... In 1925, a little more than 1/5 of the world's population lived in cities, now about half. It is predicted that by 2025, 2/3 of the world's inhabitants will be urbanites.
North America and Europe are distinguished by a very large concentration of cities. The high standard of living of the urban population in these regions is in stark contrast to the living conditions in Asia (excluding Japan), which is dominated by rural people engaged in arable farming and livestock raising. Smaller habitats are located in Southeast Australia, the southeast of South America, the west coast of North America, and parts of the North American Midwest.
In these areas, the population density is also very uneven. In some small states, it is extremely high. The area of Hong Kong, for example, is only 1045 km 2, and the population density is about 5600 people. by 1 km 2. Among the larger states, the highest density was recorded in 1991 in Bangladesh (about 800 people per sq km). As a rule, the high population density is observed in industrialized countries. So, in the Netherlands in 1990 it was 440 people. per 1 km 2, in Japan - 330 people. by 1 km 2.
Population growth on the planet
The population of the Earth is systematically increasing and the rate of its growth is increasing over the years. For example, the doubling of the population (in million people) from 20 to 40 occurred in 2000 years. From 80 to 180 - in 1000 years, from 600 to 1200 - in 150 years, and from 2500 to 5000 - in just 40 years. In the period from 1965 to 1970, the growth rate of the world's population reached an unprecedented peak in history - 2.1% per year.
By 1990, the total population of the planet reached 5, 2005 - 6, in 2010 - more than 6.5 billion people. According to forecasts, by 2025 about 10 billion people will live on Earth. More than half of the world's population lives in Asia - about 58, in Europe - over 17, in Africa - over 10, in North America - about 9, South America - about 6, in Australia and Oceania - 0.5%.
Numerous attempts to reduce the birth rate have been unsuccessful. Currently, there is a population explosion in the countries of Africa, Asia and South America. Overly rapid population growth requires a solution global problem to reduce the growth rate of the world's population, since people need a place for resettlement, for the production of material goods and food.
In Russia, in the last decade, the population decreased annually and only by 2011 stabilized (mortality is approximately equal to the birth rate), but this decade will again decrease due to demographic characteristics.
Lack of food. Despite the explosive nature of the world's population, human food resources are shrinking. Thus, the world production of grain, meat and fish and a number of other products per capita has been continuously decreasing since 1985. The forecasts came true and in 2010 the prices for wheat and rice almost doubled. In the poorest countries, this leads to widespread hunger. Currently, according to official figures, one in every five people on the planet is hungry or malnourished.
By 2030, the world's population may increase by 3.7 billion people, which will require doubling food production, and increasing industrial output and energy production by 3 times.
Energy consumption per unit of agricultural production (fertilizers, water, electricity, fuel for agricultural units, etc.) has increased almost 15 times over the past two decades, while the yield has increased on average by only 35-40%. The growth rate of grain yield has slowed down since 1990. The efficiency of fertilizer use in the world, according to experts, is close to the limit.
In addition, the total area occupied by cereals has stabilized at the level of the mid-1980s. In recent years, fish stocks have declined sharply. So, from 1950 to 1989, the world catch increased from 19 to 89 million tons, but later and until the present time (2010), no significant increase was observed. An increase in the size of the fishing fleet does not lead to an increase in the catch.
Thus, at the beginning of the XXI century. humankind is faced with the challenges of increasing ecosystem degradation, exacerbating poverty and increasing inequality between industrialized and developing nations.
Population problem
The dynamics of the population of any country depends on such basic demographic indicators as fertility, mortality and migration.
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union (1990s), there has been a significant drop in the population in the CIS countries, but compared with the previous decade (with the exception of Turkmenistan). The total population of the CIS countries at the beginning of 2001 was 280.7 million people, which is 1.6 million, or 0.6%, less than at the beginning of 1991.
Belarus, Russia and Ukraine, where 73% of all CIS residents live, since the early 1990s. have entered a strip of depopulation, the rate of which is accelerating. Depopulation coefficient (the ratio of the number of deaths to the number of births) in 1992-1993 amounted to 1.1 in Belarus, 1.14 in Russia, 1.18 in Ukraine, and in 2000 it increased to 1.44, 1.77 and 1.96, respectively, or by 31-66%.
By the beginning of 2001, the population of Belarus had decreased to 9.99 million people. against 10.4 million at the beginning of 1994 (the year of the maximum number), or 4.1%; Russia - up to 144.8 million people. against 148.7 million at the beginning of 1992, i.e. by 3.9 million, or 2.6%; Ukraine - up to 49 million against 52.2 million at the beginning of 1993, i.e. the decrease was 3.2 million, or 6.1% (Table 3). The total loss of the population of these three states during the years of reforms reached 7.5 million people, which exceeds the number of residents of such states as Denmark, Slovakia, Georgia, Israel, and Tajikistan.
Most significantly - by 2 million people. (11.3%) the population of Kazakhstan decreased: from 16.8 million at the beginning of 1991 to 14.8 million at the beginning of 2001. The negative result was caused, along with a decrease in the birth rate, by a large and stable scale of migration of the population from Kazakhstan to others. CIS countries (mainly Russian-speaking citizens to Russia and Germans to Germany).
Table 3. The number of resident population of the CIS countries
At the beginning of the year (thousand people) |
Including |
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1996 in% to 1991 |
2001 in% to 1996 |
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Belarus |
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Moldavia |
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Azerbaijan |
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Kazakhstan |
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Kyrgyzstan |
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Tajikistan |
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Turkmenistan |
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Uzbekistan |
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In the rest of the Central Asian states, in Azerbaijan and Armenia, the demographic potential in the 1990s continued to grow. The most significant increase was observed in the population of Turkmenistan - by 30.4%, Uzbekistan - by 20.2%, Tajikistan - by 15.7%. However, in the last five years (1996-2000), these countries have seen a decline in population growth rates, which is due to a decrease in natural growth in them. Only in Kyrgyzstan, population growth in the second half of the 90s. XX century increased and amounted to 6.1% against 4.6% in 1991-1995, which is associated with a sharp decrease in recent years in migration of the population outside the republic.
According to the age structure, the CIS countries are divided into three groups (Table 4). The first is Belarus, Georgia, Russia and Ukraine, where the oldest population, i.e. the share of people aged 65 and over is the largest - 12.5-13.8%, and the share of children does not exceed 20.4%. The average life expectancy is shrinking. If in the 70s. XX century in the USSR it was 73 years, now men live about 59 years, women - 72 years, i.e. the average life expectancy is 65 years. In the United States, life expectancy increased by 5 years to 78 years; in Japan this figure is 79 years.
The second group includes the states of Central Asia and Azerbaijan, which have the youngest age structure: the share of children in them ranges from 32% in Azerbaijan to 42% in Tajikistan, and of older people - from 3.9 to 5.5%. The third group of countries - Armenia, Kazakhstan and Moldova - occupy an intermediate position: children in them are 24-29%, elderly people - 7-9%.
Table 4. Age structure of the population of the CIS countries
Population at the beginning of 2001, million people |
Share of the age group,% |
Per 1000 population aged 15-64, people |
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65 and older |
65 and older |
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Belarus |
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Kazakhstan** |
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Moldavia |
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Azerbaijan |
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Kyrgyzstan |
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Tajikistan*** |
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Turkmenistan |
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Uzbekistan |
* Population at the beginning of 2000
** Age data are adjusted based on the preliminary results of the 1999 census *** 1998
All CIS countries are characterized by further growth the number of older people and the reduction in the proportion of children. At the beginning of 2000, the proportion of the population over 65 years old in Belarus amounted to 13.3% against 11% in 1991, in Russia - 12.5% (10%), Ukraine - 13.8% (12%). As a result, the demographic burden of people over 65 years old is able-bodied population(aged 15 to 65) has increased in these countries compared to the beginning of the 90s. XX century by 20-30%, and the demographic burden of children decreased by 10-15%.
Demographic a crisis- is a term that denotes emerging demographic problems both individually and in the whole planet. Crisis is usually considered to be serious population problems, resulting in economic and political problems. There are several main types of such a crisis a. The first is the significant population. A similar situation takes place in modern Russia, as well as a number of other countries of the post-Soviet space and Europe. But if in a number of countries, for example, in Germany, the natural loss can be covered by migrants, then Russia is faced with a situation where this resource is not enough to replenish the population. For the country, the danger is, first of all, not a decrease in the number of citizens in itself, but economic consequences of this process - a shortage of workers, as well as an aging population, which causes an increase in the tax burden on the able-bodied. There may be several reasons for the decline in the population. If in European countries this is primarily a decrease in the birth rate, then in Russia this is added to this by a high mortality rate from various factors - diseases, accidents, crimes against. a crisis and the second is adjacent - the aging of the population while maintaining its size. A similar situation can be seen in Japan, where the number of citizens has remained fairly stable for many years, but their average age. Subsequently, this a crisis can also escalate into population decline due to natural mortality among the elderly. The third type of demographic a crisis a - this is a sharp increase in population. It is typical for developing countries - India, African countries, China, the Middle East. In this case, already the surplus of the young population creates various problems. Unemployment arises, shortage natural resources up to hunger and, as a result, political instability, further aggravating the situation. a crisis s can be considered a well-thought-out demographic policy of the state. They are known when it bore fruit. For example, China has managed to reduce it by rather tough measures, although it is still above the level of reproduction. The opposite situation is in France, where, thanks to the social assistance system and a developed network of state preschool institutions, it was possible to keep the birth rate at the required level. Now it is one of the few European countries where there is an increase in the indigenous population.
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For a long time, science has been discussing such an important and serious problem as the population explosion. Scientists are seriously concerned about its consequences. There is a debate in society about the possibilities of eliminating its causes and results.
A population explosion is a sudden surge in population growth. This process is mainly due to a decrease in mortality and an increase in the birth rate in the world.
At the end of the 17th century. the growth rate of the world's population has almost doubled, which was due to a number of factors. Firstly, this is due to the development of industry. Second, the demographic explosion of socio-economic changes that have allowed women to work on an equal basis with men. Third, the mortality rate has dropped sharply.
Now the population explosion is almost imperceptible, because the rate of population growth is significantly reduced compared to the 1960s, which are the most indicators, but, nevertheless, the threat of overpopulation remains. This is especially true in Africa (such as Nigeria, Angola and others), where demographic growth is still extremely high. In addition, in some countries, such as China, they had to resort to harsh measures. Families with one child enjoy various benefits, and spouses with two or more have to pay, the amount of which depends on income and place of residence.
One problem has been the reluctance of many residents to take family planning seriously. This is largely due to world religions, which adhere to a conservative position in relation to children. The consequences of the population explosion can be dire: the decline of the global economy, poverty, hunger and the depletion of all the resources of the planet available to mankind.
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Demography is the science that measures the world's population and reveals trends in its change. To make it easier to comprehend the data, their visualization is used: a graph of population changes is built. It is this graph that is called the demographic curve.
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The demographic curve is formed by adding two components: population growth and population decline. The increase is positive and the decrease is negative. The curve can change according to different laws. If the population is constantly decreasing, then it tends downward, then it is called downward. And if the population increases, then it goes up - this is an upward curve.
Population growth rates vary quite significantly from era to era. They are associated, as a rule, with the general welfare of mankind, which depends on technology. Over hundreds and thousands of years, science slowly and gradually progressed, followed by the growth of the planet's population. An explosive leap in living standards occurred at the beginning of the 20th century, it was then that the population level jumped up very strongly. Then followed two, which not only claimed a huge number of human lives, but also stopped population growth in developed countries.
At present, the natural population growth in countries with a high standard of living, oddly enough, is not too high. Moreover, if we compare it with the mortality rate, it turns out that the curve is descending, that is, the population naturally decreases. It is possible to maintain it at the proper level with the help of immigrants from others, but this method of increasing the population has a number of disadvantages, so it is kept under control and is not used too actively.
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