Will the price of pork rise in a year. Meat Price Review: Reasons for Growth and Future Forecasts
What will inflation be by the end of this year?
— More than 9%. We must understand that this is an election year. Year social benefits. Moreover, the order of monetization of subsidies is almost ready at the moment, which will throw out an additional financial resource To the market. All this will put pressure on the consumer market and on products - their prices will rise. Accordingly, inflation will be at the level of last year - about 13%. This is due to the fact that the growth of the currency is set at the level of 12% in the budget. If last year we had a fall national currency by 4-5%, then this year they laid up to 29.3%. We are import-dependent, we have a huge number of commodity items coming from abroad. Therefore, automatically for the bulk of goods, for imports, we will have a 12% increase.
— How will inflation be affected by rising gas prices?
— It will be more than 12%. 62% will not be exactly, I think it will rise in price at the level of 18-20%. As soon as the price of gas increases, the price of housing and communal services will immediately go up. The price of electricity will immediately rise. We have already budgeted for two stages of growth for it.
— Why then such an optimistic inflation forecast from the NBU?
— The NBU did not make this forecast. Inflation of 9.1% was budgeted. The National Bank only confirmed this figure. If we add everything together, namely, gas prices, growth in food, then we will get the above inflation figure at the end of the year.
What products have risen in price the most?
— Sour cream in February rose by 9%. For the year by 41%. Sour-milk cottage cheese by 8% in February and by 24% for the year. Cabbage by 16%, and beets by 15%.
What products will rise in price the most in spring?
- Vegetables until May will beat records at prices. Then the price will roll back. Last year vegetables rose in price by 300-400%. This year there will be no such growth, but we will see at least a doubling. That is, they will rise in price by 100%. Also milk and dairy products. On average, this product will rise in price by 30% per year. African swine fever has not gone away, the livestock will fall. In January, the price of pork did not move, but wholesale prices have already risen. Accordingly, in February we will see an increase in prices for this product by 3%. The trends are disappointing, the negative trends of last year have not gone away. What stimulated food prices last year will stimulate this year as well.
Will the price of bread go up?
“It all depends on the harvest. But the fact that in the first month of the year we have a 3.5% increase in the price of bread is a very bad bell. When the grain of the new harvest appears and goes to the elevators, then it will be more clear what the situation will be with the grain.
Product inflation in 2016 will drop to 9 percent, Rossiyskaya Gazeta experts predict. Let's see how it affects different products.
Pork is getting cheaper, beef is not
In 2016, the entire meat market will expect an increase in the production of domestic products, points out the director of the Institute of Agricultural Marketing (IAM) Elena Tyurina. The expert claims that retail prices for pork and poultry meat may go down by 2-4 percent.
Bye Russian companies are heavily dependent on imported animal feed and nutritional supplements. Although their production is now beginning to master in Russia.
Beef in 2015 has risen in price by an average of 20 percent. This type of meat is confidently moving into the category of products for the population with an income level above the average. Manufacturers are increasingly focusing on "expensive" feed. For example, steaks.
Beef consumption remains significantly lower compared to pork and poultry. Such a rise in prices, as in 2015, suggests that the manufacturer understands that the volume of production does not meet the needs, says Tyurina. "In 2016, beef will grow in price much faster than pork and poultry. Hardly by 20 percent, but 12-15 percent can be expected," she predicts.
At the same time, Andrey Sizov of the SovEcon analytical agency, in his study "Russian Agriculture- an oasis of growth in a depressed economy. Results of 2015" emphasizes that the dynamics of poultry and pork production at the end of 2015 began to deteriorate.
First of all, by reducing consumption by the population. If this trend continues to develop, prices may rise.
Potatoes rise in price from frost
Prices for their products in 2015 were reduced by potato producers. Their products cost an average of 16 percent less than a year earlier.
This is due, firstly, to a good harvest in 2015, and secondly, to an increase in the number of vegetable stores. Many households have acquired them. But, alas, not all. Therefore, in the remaining winter months, potatoes will rise in price.
Severe lack of storage capacity has long been a big problem Russian market. In conditions when it is impossible to preserve the harvest, farms have to sell most of their products during the harvesting period, which greatly "drops" prices in the market. With the onset of cold weather, as improperly stored potatoes begin to deteriorate, prices begin to rise.
For other vegetables, the process is not yet so clear. Even here, however, there have been successes. The production of greenhouse vegetables has increased by 8-10 percent, according to the Institute of Agricultural Marketing. This is the result of the construction of the first stages of greenhouse complexes almost throughout the country. Approximately 40 projects for the production of greenhouse vegetables are announced for 2016, which makes it possible to predict an increase in production by about 20 percent in 2016. And this allows us to expect a reduction in price increases.
Milk is in short supply
According to IAM forecasts, in 2016 the same dynamics of prices for the dairy group will continue as in the previous year.
These products cause experts the greatest concern. Despite growing investment in the industry, the number of dairy cattle in Russia is declining, and the level of provision of producers with natural raw materials remains low.
The increase in prices on average in the dairy industry is projected at 3-5 percent. True, producers will be more severely limited by the decline in consumer demand. So butter is unlikely to rise in price by more than 7 percent. Otherwise, buyers will start to refuse it, predicts Tyurina.
Dairy market expert Marina Petrova (Petrova Five Consulting) notes a decrease in consumption for all groups of dairy products in 2015. From 1.2 percent for fermented milk products to 13-15 percent for cheese. In 2016, the trend will continue, she expects.
And further. Experts unanimously predict that after the appearance of special labeling on dairy products with the addition of palm oil, prices for products without vegetable fats will go up. There is a high probability of a tangible expansion of the range of such products.
According to Elena Tyurina, main problem The dairy industry still lacks an established mechanism for purchasing raw milk from small farms, which occupy a significant share in total production. The number of plants that have a raw material base at their disposal remains very small.
01/11/2016 Rossiyskaya Gazeta journalists published a forecast for the Russian food market. Interviewed experts argue that beef and dairy products will rise in price, but prices for pork and poultry meat may decrease slightly.
Pork is getting cheaper, beef is not
In 2016, the entire meat market will expect an increase in the production of domestic products, points out the director of the Institute of Agricultural Marketing (IAM) Elena Tyurina. The expert claims that retail prices for pork and poultry meat may go down by 2-4%.
So far, Russian companies are heavily dependent on imports of animal feed and nutritional supplements. Although their production is now beginning to master in Russia.
Beef in 2015 has risen in price by an average of 20%. This type of meat is confidently moving into the category of products for the population with an income level above the average. Manufacturers are increasingly focusing on "expensive" feed. For example, steaks.
Beef consumption remains significantly lower compared to pork and poultry. Such a rise in prices, as in 2015, suggests that the manufacturer understands that the volume of production does not meet the needs, says Tyurina. “In 2016, beef will rise in price much faster than pork and poultry. Hardly by 20%, but 12-15% can be expected,” she predicts.
At the same time, Andrey Sizov, executive director of the SovEcon analytical agency, in his study “Russian agriculture is an oasis of growth in a depressed economy. Results of 2015” emphasizes that the dynamics of poultry and pork production at the end of 2015 began to deteriorate.
First of all, by reducing consumption by the population. If this trend continues to develop, prices may rise.
Potatoes rise in price from frost
Prices for their products in 2015 were reduced by potato producers. Their products cost an average of 16% less than a year earlier. This is due, firstly, to a good harvest in 2015, and secondly, to an increase in the number of vegetable stores. Many households have acquired them. But, alas, not all. Therefore, in the remaining winter months, potatoes will rise in price.
An acute shortage of storage capacity has long been a big problem in the Russian market. In conditions when it is impossible to preserve the harvest, farms have to sell most of their products during the harvesting period, which greatly “drops” prices on the market. With the onset of cold weather, as improperly stored potatoes begin to deteriorate, prices begin to rise.
For other vegetables, the process is not yet so clear. Even here, however, there have been successes. The production of greenhouse vegetables has increased by 8-10%, according to the Institute of Agricultural Marketing. This is the result of the construction of the first stages of greenhouse complexes almost throughout the country. Approximately 40 projects for the production of greenhouse vegetables are announced for 2016, which makes it possible to predict an increase in production by about 20% in 2016. And this allows us to expect a reduction in price increases.
Milk is in short supply
According to IAM forecasts, in 2016 the same dynamics of prices for the dairy group will continue as in the previous year.
These products cause experts the greatest concern. Despite growing investments in the industry, the number of dairy cattle in Russia is declining, and the level of provision of producers with natural raw materials remains low.
The increase in prices on average in the dairy industry is projected at 3-5%. True, producers will be more severely limited by the decline in consumer demand. So butter is unlikely to rise in price by more than 7%. Otherwise, buyers will start to refuse it, predicts Tyurina.
Dairy market expert Marina Petrova (Petrova Five Consulting) notes a decrease in consumption for all groups of dairy products in 2015. From 1.2% for fermented milk products to 13-15% for cheese. In 2016, the trend will continue, she expects.
And further. Experts unanimously predict that after the appearance of special labeling on dairy products with the addition of palm oil, prices for products without vegetable fats will go up. There is a high probability of a tangible expansion of the range of such products.
According to Elena Tyurina, the main problem of the dairy industry is the lack of an established mechanism for purchasing raw milk from small farms, which occupy a significant share in total production. The number of plants that have a raw material base at their disposal remains very small.
On March 1, the Ministry of Agriculture begins massive grain interventions designed to keep prices for beef and pork. However, the measures are clearly too late, experts say. In the spring, especially in private farmsteads, the growing of cattle and the farrowing of pigs begin, which will lead to an increase in the price of grain and, accordingly, meat. If Russian agrarians do not create a powerful lobby, then after Russia's accession to the WTO, many farmers will soon go bankrupt under the onslaught of foreign competitors.
The other day Dmitry Medvedev held a large meeting on the agricultural sector. In addition to officials from the Ministry of Agriculture, other departments and manufacturers, a number of governors were invited to it. According to one of the participants in the meeting, "on the 5th floor of the White House, a quiet, fierce rage settled that day." The Prime Minister was clearly not ready for it.
According to national project development of agriculture, which at one time was supervised by the current prime minister, about 250 billion budget rubles were spent on the development of industrial pig breeding. In accordance with the requirements of the WTO, and we de facto became its participants on August 23, import duties on pork meat were reduced from 15% to 0, and on live pig - from 40% to 5%. Against the backdrop of an unprecedented rise in prices for feed grain, the situation for domestic pig breeders has become simply fatal.
It couldn't be otherwise. In the structure of the cost of 1 kg of pork, about 70% is the grain group. Approximately the same ratio is in poultry meat. It is in these livestock sectors, which have demonstrated the most impressive import substitution over the past 10 years, that we will face a serious decline. At the same time, the measures taken by the government in a fire order will help our agriculture, like vitamins to a dead mongrel.
And that's why. Firstly, the fire zeroing of the import duty on grain, which is 5%, will not be effective, since it mainly concerns supplies from the European Union and Kazakhstan. So, it is not necessary to count on its large volumes. This should also include the widely announced decision by the Ministry of Agriculture to start massive commodity interventions in the amount of 3 million tons from March 1. I have doubts about the presence of such a quantity of grain in the fund, and also raises the question of its safety.
Secondly, the logistics are questionable. It is unlikely that it will be possible to quickly ship and transfer such volumes of grain, which is 50 thousand wagons, with an average speed of movement of goods along the Russian Railways of 9 km / h.
The situation will be aggravated by the fact that there are biological cycles in animal husbandry. You can't fool nature. It is in the spring months that mass growth of cattle and farrowing of pigs begin, especially in private farmsteads, which means that the demand for grain will grow. I give a disappointing forecast: having slowed down a bit in the second half of May, domestic prices for feed grains will exceed world prices by 10-15%.
To the treatment of a poor dog with vitamins, I would also include bashful attempts to limit imports, referring to the use of ractopamine by overseas producers in fattening pigs. There is such a feed additive that allows you to quickly form lard in pigs, which is by no means beloved by Ukrainian brothers, but muscle mass. As a fan of organic products, I generally welcome sanctions. However, we will not be able to protect domestic producers in this way. I have experience. In March 1996, he was the chief negotiator during the first "chicken war" with the "Bush legs", so I am well acquainted with the arsenal of our American and Canadian partners and their counterarguments.
Please note that at that time we were not members of the WTO and could afford to freely “walk” for some time in the “foreign policy buffet”. Now there are no such opportunities. I foresee that within six months our partners will withdraw from the diets of farm animals and poultry all feed additives that do not suit the Russian supervisory authorities. After that, our inspectors will be invited, and we will have nothing to cover. And then what - a trade war? Russia needs it that "boil the bride."
But there are also purely internal economic reasons why this ban on imported meat won't last long. The structure of consumer inflation is such that 4.5% or even 5% out of 7% of Rosstat's correct ones is caused by an increase in prices for the food basket. And in household expenditures, 35-50% is spent on food. Agree, these data are very different from 10% American and 12-15% European.
Since July 1, tariffs have been increased by an average of 15%. Against this background, inflationary expectations are growing, which means that many manufacturers and traders, in turn, will raise food prices.
So such methods of protecting domestic producers are fraught with serious social consequences. And do not nod to our membership in the WTO. It's just a tool, and a double-edged one. The point is the catastrophic inconsistency of the state of Russian state institutions with the modern requirements of a global trade organization, the archaism and slowness of the entire system of state power. This is the main root of our troubles and problems. In the course of long and painful negotiations, Russia agreed on the amount of aggregate support for the sector in the amount of $9 billion. About $5 billion was spent under the budget section "Agriculture" in 2012. It would seem that there is nothing to worry about, we have room to grow.
In my opinion, budgetary support should concern programs related to the increase in domestic demand. But it is precisely here that there is a shortage of ideas and proposals from the Government of the Russian Federation. The number of so-called. Decree contingents and organized groups (schools, kindergartens, welfare institutions, medical hospitals) number about 32 million people, who require 11 million tons of food per year for 640 billion rubles. Frankly speaking, indexation and raising pensions in the amount of 600 rubles are much less effective than targeted food aid. Since in this way, in addition to social problems, the main problem of agricultural producers is solved - marketing. And if we add federal special consumers to them, for example, the Ministry of Defense, the Penitentiary System, the State Reserve, etc., then, according to my estimates, 30-35% of domestic production can be guaranteed to be provided with solvent demand from the state. In any case, such programs have been operating successfully for a long time in a number of developed countries and especially in the USA.
Separately, I would like to say about the high volatility of prices for agricultural raw materials with a wide spread over the years. With a large harvest, the plant growing industry becomes bad, and with a low harvest, as in the past year, animal husbandry is experiencing serious problems. Ultimately, the consumer suffers.
The price pendulum passes the equilibrium point with the greatest speed - obviously, it can be fixed by a system of commodity and purchasing interventions. In a number of countries, special structures have been created for the effective regulation of agri-food markets. Obviously, there is a need to create such a department in our country. It could effectively implement an intervention policy in the agri-food markets not only for grain, but also for a number of commodities that significantly affect the value of the entire food basket. In my opinion, such an agency should be subordinated not to a sectoral ministry, but to the Government of the Russian Federation.
In Russia, the level of food inflation in 2016 will decrease to 9%. This prediction was made by the respondents Russian newspaper"experts, suggesting how inflation will affect the prices of various food products.
In the coming year, the entire meat market will expect an increase in the production of domestic products, says Elena Tyurina, director of the Institute for Agricultural Marketing (IAM). The expert claims that retail prices for pork and poultry meat may go down by 2-4 percent.
Beef in 2015 has risen in price by an average of 20 percent. This type of meat is confidently moving into the category of products for the population with an income level above the average.
Manufacturers are increasingly focusing on "expensive" feed. For example, steaks. Most people buy pork and poultry. Such an increase in prices, as in 2015, according to the expert, indicates that the manufacturer understands that the volume of production does not meet the needs, says Tyurina. "In 2016, beef will grow in price much faster than pork and poultry. Hardly by 20 percent, but 12-15 percent can be expected," she predicts.
At the same time, Andrey Sizov, Executive Director of the SovEcon analytical agency, in his study "Russian agriculture - an oasis of growth in a depressed economy. Results of 2015" emphasizes that the dynamics of poultry and pork production at the end of 2015 began to deteriorate. First of all, by reducing consumption by the population. If this trend continues to develop, prices may rise.
Prices for their products in 2015 were reduced by potato producers. Their products cost an average of 16 percent less than a year earlier. This is due, firstly, to a good harvest in 2015, and secondly, to an increase in the number of vegetable stores. Many households have acquired them. But, alas, not all. Therefore, in the remaining winter months, potatoes will rise in price. An acute shortage of storage capacity has long been a big problem for the Russian market.
In conditions when it is impossible to preserve the harvest, farms have to sell most of their products during the harvesting period, which greatly "drops" prices in the market. With the onset of cold weather, as improperly stored potatoes begin to deteriorate, prices begin to rise.
For other vegetables, the process is not yet so clear. The production of greenhouse vegetables has increased by 8-10 percent, according to the Institute of Agricultural Marketing. This is the result of the construction of the first stages of greenhouse complexes almost throughout the country. Approximately 40 projects for the production of greenhouse vegetables are announced for 2016, which makes it possible to predict an increase in production by about 20 percent in 2016. And this allows us to expect a reduction in price increases.
According to IAM forecasts, in 2016 the same dynamics of prices for the dairy group will continue as in the previous year. These products cause experts the greatest concern. Despite growing investment in the industry, the number of dairy cattle in Russia is declining, and the level of provision of producers with natural raw materials remains low. The increase in prices on average in the dairy industry is projected at 3-5 percent. True, manufacturers will be more severely limited by reduced consumer demand. So butter is unlikely to rise in price by more than 7 percent. Otherwise, buyers will start to refuse it, predicts Tyurina.
Dairy market expert Marina Petrova notes a decrease in consumption for all groups of dairy products in 2015. From 1.2 percent for fermented milk products to 13-15 percent for cheese. In 2016, the trend will continue, she expects. In addition, experts predict that after the introduction of special labeling on dairy products with the addition of palm oil, prices for products without vegetable fats will go up.
There is a high probability of a tangible expansion of the range of such products. According to Elena Tyurina, the main problem of the dairy industry is the lack of an established mechanism for purchasing raw milk from small farms, which occupy a significant share in total production. The number of plants that have a raw material base at their disposal remains insignificant.
Text: Anastasia MOSKVINA
Photo: Ilya DAVYDOV / E1.RU