Market capitalization of Gazprom for the year. Stock
The market capitalization of the ten largest public Russian companies listed on the Moscow Exchange grew by 6 percent over the year, exceeding RUB 16 trillion. Despite the overall positive result, the past year was not successful for all of them. Megafon shares lost 11 percent over the year, while Gazprom, Russia's largest oil and gas company, lost 6 percent. Analysts predict an active recovery in the Russian securities market in the second half of 2016 following the rise in oil prices and the strengthening of the ruble. This will primarily serve as a driver for the shares of oil and gas companies, banks and retail.
Gazprom
The capitalization of the most expensive Russian company, Gazprom, fell by about 6 percent over the year. On January 11, trading in ordinary shares of the oil and gas giant on the Moscow Exchange closed at 131.4 rubles per share, while on January 12, 2015, investors bought them at 140 rubles (January 11 then fell on Sunday when trading was not held).
Gazprom is a Russian state-owned energy company engaged in the production, processing and sale of gas and oil. It has the richest natural gas reserves in the world: its share in the world reserves is 17 percent, in Russian - 72 percent. In 2015, the company produced 418.47 billion cubic meters of gas, Interfax reported, citing a source.
Rosneft
Rosneft shares rose significantly in price. If on January 11 they were traded on the Moscow Exchange at 241 rubles, then a year earlier the cost of one share was only 204 rubles. Thus, the capitalization of the company increased by 18 percent, to 2.55 trillion rubles.
Rosneft is one of the world's largest publicly traded oil and gas companies. The main activities are exploration and production of oil and gas. The main shareholder with 69.5 percent of the shares is state-owned Rosneftegaz, 19.75 percent of the shares are owned by British BP, the remaining 10.75 percent are in free float. In 2015, Rosneft produced 254 million tonnes of oil equivalent of hydrocarbons.
Sberbank
The largest bank in the country showed an almost 45% growth in capitalization, up to 1.97 trillion rubles. During the trading session on January 12, shares were bought at 91 rubles per share against 62.9 rubles a year ago.
Sberbank is the largest Russian bank controlled by the Central Bank. Its share in the total assets of the Russian banking sector is almost one third. In 2015, the bank issued consumer loans for 500 billion rubles, mortgage loans - for 580 billion.
Lukoil
The shares of the largest private oil company, Lukoil, fell by about 9 percent. Securities at the close of trading on the Moscow Exchange on January 11, 2016 cost about 2258 rubles apiece. Last year, on January 12, investors were ready to pay 2,477 rubles for them. The company's capitalization for the year fell to 1.92 trillion rubles.
Novatek
Novatek's shares rose 17 percent over the year: from 470.7 rubles as of January 12 last year to 550.5 rubles in January this year. The company's capitalization has grown over the year from 1.43 trillion to 1.67 trillion rubles.
Surgutneftegaz
The capitalization of Surgutneftegaz increased by almost a third over the year - by 30.5 percent, reaching 1.19 trillion rubles on January 11, 2016. Ordinary shares of the company at the beginning of this week were traded in Moscow at a price of more than 33 rubles per share.
Network "Magnet"
The shares of one of the largest Russian retailers, the Magnit chain, in January 2016 were holding approximately at the level of the beginning of last year. The trading session on the Moscow Exchange on January 11 closed at 10667 rubles per security, on January 12, 2015 - 10689 rubles. Capitalization remained at the level of one trillion rubles.
Norilsk Nickel
One of the world's largest producers of nickel and palladium, Norilsk Nickel, lost over 12 percent of its capitalization over the year: the company's market value fell from 1.56 trillion to 1.36 trillion rubles. The holding's shares on the Moscow Exchange fell from 9840 rubles per share to 8600 rubles (January 11 of this year to January 12, 2015).
Gazprom Neft
The capitalization of Gazprom Neft increased by 6 percent, amounting to 722 billion rubles as of January 11 this year. Ordinary shares of the company that day traded at 152 rubles per share against 143 rubles a year ago.
"Megaphone"
Almost 9 percent of the capitalization, or 50 billion rubles, was lost by one of the operators of the Big Three - Megafon. On January 11, the company's shares cost 825 rubles on the Moscow stock exchange against 906 rubles a year earlier. The market capitalization of the company at the beginning of this year was 511.5 billion rubles.
***
Finam investment holding analyst Bogdan Zvarych notes that the past year was more favorable for Russian companies in terms of the geopolitical situation than 2014. The Minsk agreements contributed to the cessation of hostilities and a relative normalization of the situation in eastern Ukraine, which helped to reduce tensions between Russia and the West. However, the sanctions regime continued to operate, and this is a negative factor for investors. And the main attention in the financial markets was focused on oil prices. "If in the first half of the year the energy market managed to demonstrate recovery and rise to the level of $ 67.5 per barrel, then the second half of the year was marked by a decline in prices to multi-year lows," Zvarich notes.
The expert believes that in 2016 the value of shares of the largest Russian companies may go up in the second half of the year following the recovery of the energy market. According to him, then the decrease in investments in the development of new fields will already affect, and oil production will decrease. “As a result, oil prices will begin to recover and by the end of the year may rise to $ 55-60 per barrel. Also, in the second half of the year, the easing of sanctions and a decrease in tension in relations with Western partners may become a positive for the Russian economy, ”he adds. First of all, this should have a positive effect on the securities of companies in the oil and gas and banking sectors. Following the restoration of the purchasing power of the population, the retail financial indicators will move up, which will allow this sector to end the year better than the market.
IK Veles Capital expects the recovery of oil quotations only by the end of 2016. The company's analysts predict a rise in Brent oil prices to $ 55 per barrel under the baseline scenario. Following this, the national currency, according to their calculations, should strengthen to 57-63 rubles per dollar, and the Central Bank will reduce the base rate to 8.5 percent. Vasily Tanurkov, Deputy Head of the Equity Market Analysis Department at Veles Capital, expects that by the end of 2016, demand for emerging markets securities will recover. A serious factor in the attractiveness of Russian securities, he said, will be the high dividend yield.
“Apart from the main factors, the budgetary policy of the government should be noted. The main issue is the further dynamics of export duties on oil and MET on gas for Gazprom after 2016. The possibility of privatizing state assets is also closely related to budgetary policy, ”he says. Easing European sanctions against Russia is unlikely. From the top 10 list, the largest growth in 2016, according to analysts at Veles Capital, can be demonstrated by Norilsk Nickel, Gazprom Neft and Lukoil.
The annual rating of the most expensive public companies in Russia as of the end of 2019, compiled by the RIA Rating agency, was topped by Gazprom with a capitalization of $ 98 billion. Sberbank is in second place behind the gas corporation, with a capitalization of $ 89 billion at the end of 2019. Rosneft closes the top three with a capitalization of $ 77 billion.
As the agency specifies, the rating was based on the data of the Moscow Exchange, foreign exchanges, issuers and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Capitalization was estimated based on the value of issued ordinary shares or depositary receipts for them, traded on exchanges at the end of December 2019. Conversion into US dollars was made at the rate set by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation at the end of 2019. The change in capitalization was calculated in US dollars.
Over the past year, there have been quite strong changes in the top ten of the rating. First, the leader has changed again. Now Gazprom has the largest capitalization, although a year earlier it was the fourth. This progress was made possible due to the growth of the share price by almost 90%. The rise in Gazprom shares is associated with the imminent completion of large investments in new pipelines and a promise to increase dividends in the medium term. Accordingly, in 2019, Rosneft lost the leading position, while its capitalization increased by 18%, but this is only the ninth increase among the top 10 ratings. The newcomer to the top ten was the gold mining company "Polyus" (capitalization growth for the year by 47%), which ousted NMLK (now occupies 13th place in the rating) from the top 10.
Product Widget
In general, the capitalization of the top ten in dollar terms increased by 44% over the year. Thus, the leaders showed higher overall growth in comparison with the result of the market as a whole. At the same time, the minimum market capitalization required to enter the top 10 rose to $ 15.3 billion as of December 31, 2019, against $ 13.6 billion a year earlier.
According to experts, over the past year, the dollar capitalization of the top 100 most expensive companies in Russia grew by 37% or by $ 216 billion and amounted to $ 808 billion as of December 31, 2019. For comparison, the result at the beginning of 2020 is almost twice as much as at the beginning of 2016, that is, the market has doubled in four years. At the same time, at the end of 2013, the total capitalization of the top 100 most expensive companies in Russia was $ 813 billion, so the losses of the 2014-2016 crisis have not yet been won back.
In 2020, according to experts, a correction of the Russian and world stock markets can be expected. “This will slow down the growth of the value of most public companies, but in general, by the end of the year, the capitalization of most issuers is likely to grow. First of all, this will be caused by the improvement of macroeconomic indicators in Russia due to lower rates, higher budget spending and increased consumer and business confidence. Better than the market will be traded securities of retail companies, the sector of real estate and metallurgy, "- the analysts conclude.
What made it the most valuable company in Russia. Against the backdrop of rising oil prices, Rosneft shares on Monday renewed their all-time highs. Monday morning on Moskovskaya exchange securities of the oil company added 3.19% and traded at 326.6 rubles. a piece. Rosneft's capitalization amounted to 3.457125 trillion rubles. Gazprom at the same time traded at 147.8 rubles. per share (+0.05), and its capitalization was only 3.448520 trillion rubles. In third place in terms of capitalization among Russian companies with 2.512289 trillion rubles.
On the London Stock Exchange, Rosneft shares showed even greater growth - 4.53%, to $ 4.89. The capitalization of the company, thus, amounted to $ 51.253 billion. Gazprom in London grew by 0.28% to $ 4.311. The capitalization of the gas monopoly was $ 50.809 billion.
Growth quotes Rosneft shares are supported by oil prices. They are growing on expectations of the results of negotiations of countries with other manufacturers (including with Russia), which are to be held on April 17 in Qatar's Doha. The issue of freezing the level of oil production will be discussed in order to reduce the excess supply on the market, which should push oil quotes up.
Now the price of North Sea oil Brent, to which the price of Russian Urals is tied, has approached $ 42 per barrel. The main growth in recent years was at the end of last week, when quotations on Friday jumped from $ 39.6 to $ 41.8. On Monday, growth slowed down, but did not stop, a barrel of Brent on the ICE intercontinental exchange in London traded at $ 42.08 (+ 0.35%).
Over the past five years, the capitalization of the two largest Russian companies has changed significantly, with Rosneft quotes growing, while Gazprom, on the contrary, went down. At the beginning of 2010, the securities of the oil company were traded at 262 rubles. per share, capitalization was at the level of 2.766722 trillion rubles. At the same time, Gazprom shares were worth 192.5 rubles, capitalization - 4.557151 trillion rubles.
Thus, in just over five years, Rosneft has risen in price by almost 700 billion rubles, while Gazprom has fallen in price by more than 1.1 trillion rubles.
Rosneft points out that the company “passed the test of the crisis”, having managed to become one of the best in the industry in terms of fundamental indicators - and this despite the level of tax burden that is incomparable with the global majors and the current sanctions. The company representative also noted the open communication strategy of Rosneft, which contributed to the improvement of the recommendations of investment banks' analysts (now there are no more “sell” recommendations left among them).
“At the same time, the company is fundamentally underestimated, which is exacerbated by the country factor and politically motivated sanctions,” says the source of Gazeta. Ru ". “In the long term, the company has tremendous potential for further capitalization growth”.
Alexander, senior analyst at Aton for the oil and gas sector, says that the recent growth in Rosneft shares is due to the company's reporting for the fourth quarter of 2015, where Rosneft showed not only good free cash flow, but also a reversal in the production dynamics of Yuganskneftegaz ".
“This is the main asset of the company, providing about a third of its production,” explains Kornilov. “If earlier Yuganskneftegaz production was falling, now not only the decline has stopped, but growth has also begun.”
In addition, Rosneft has a good margin of safety in terms of production in general. Mainly due to new projects in Eastern Siberia - primarily the fields of the Vankor cluster (for the development of which, by the way, Rosneft recently attracted Indian companies - Gazeta.Ru).
Also, the company's net debt played a role, which at the end of last year almost halved, from $ 43.8 billion at the end of 2014 to $ 23.2 billion. The EBITDA to net debt ratio was 1.12 in dollar terms versus 1, 51 in 2014. Rosneft plans to pay off another $ 14.3 billion this year.
According to Kornilov, the issue of debt has long raised concerns among investors, but now these risks have decreased. “The company's balance sheet has about $ 18 billion of liquid assets, and about $ 5 billion, according to our estimates, Rosneft will be able to receive from the sale of shares in the Vankor cluster projects to Indians,” the expert explains.
For Gazprom, the situation is reversed. According to Kornilov's forecasts, the company will reduce free cash flow. In addition, Gazprom will not be able to cut capital expenditures now, given such large projects as the Power of Siberia gas pipeline to China and the development of the Chayandinskoye field. In addition, Gazprom has plans for a large pipeline project to Europe - Nord Stream 2.
The situation and the situation on the European market is deteriorating - the price of Gazprom's European contracts is tied to oil quotations with a lag of six to nine months, and if oil has already gone through its "bottom", then gas is still waiting.
Gazprom shares declined to attractive levels. The potential for gas price reductions is limited. A progressive dividend policy will support the stock.
Trading plan:
Purchase from the level of 208 rubles. For the purpose of 255 rubles. Horizon up to 9 months Yield up to 22.6% excluding dividends.
Factors behind:
Dividend policy. In 2019, Gazprom adopted a new dividend policy, according to which the company will reach a payout level of 50% of adjusted profit by 2022. At the end of 2019, the company will pay 30% of profit, and this year it may not be adjusted for items that reduce the base for dividend payments. Based on the ruble exchange rate of 62 per dollar, the company in July 2020 may pay about 16.8 rubles. At current prices, this represents a 7.7% dividend yield. Such a dividend yield will help keep quotes from a significant drawdown.
The potential for gas price reductions is limited. Gas prices are approaching the cost boundary for US LNG suppliers in Europe. Gazprom on Investor Day estimated this level in the range of $ 120-125 per thousand cubic meters or about $ 3.2-3.5 per MMBTU. In February, prices on the Dutch hub TTF dropped below $ 3 per MMBTU and remain below that level.
LNG prices in Asia dropped to $ 2.1 per MMBTU in February, according to Platts. This situation in the export markets for American gas companies leads to an even faster drop in domestic prices for Henry Hub. Prices for NYMEX, pegged to this hub, have been at their lows since March 2016, close to $ 1.77 per MMBTU. For many gas producers, such prices were on the border of profitability (taking into account non-monetary costs).
Prospects for the growth of export deliveries. Gazprom expects that in the next 3-5 years, due to a decrease in its own production, the demand for gas in Europe will grow by 25-30 billion cubic meters per year. If Gazprom manages to maintain its market share at 36%, the company can expect at least $ 1.3 billion in additional revenue, even at current low prices.
In the coming years, the level of supplies to China by the strength of Siberia will grow by about 5 billion cubic meters per year, which will also significantly increase Gazprom's operating cash flows.
Protection against ruble devaluation. A significant part of Gazprom's revenue comes from export deliveries in foreign currency.
The technical picture. Gazprom shares broke through the area of 215-216 rubles. and approached the lower border of the short-term downtrend channel. On the daily and weekly charts, the oscillators indicate significant oversold.
A slowdown in the global economy and a correction in global stock markets amid the spread of the coronavirus.
Gas prices in Europe have remained close to their current minimum values for a long time (from six months or longer) against the backdrop of tougher competition with LNG.
Warm winter and cool summer 2020
BCS Broker
for 9
months before
208,00 ₽
181.41 ₽
255,00 ₽
Ferrari
Trading plan:
Buy from the level of $ 153.5 with a target of $ 156.6 for a period of 7 days. Potential profit of the transaction = 2%. Loss cap is set at the price level of $ 147.4
Factors behind:
Ferrari shares have fallen unfairly due to the general panic in the markets. The company operates in the luxury segment of the automotive industry and, even in the short term, will be very weakly affected by the crisis caused by the coronavirus;
The company's margins are very high, the debt is low, and the business is growing steadily;
Reporting in recent quarters is outperforming investors' expectations;
Ferrari has a strong and successful brand in its segment of the car market, one of the few automotive companies that has consistently increased its financial performance and capitalization.
Negative news background.
Ferrari (RACE) price chart:
VK: https://vk.com/bot_bcs
for 7
days before
153,50 $
152,57 $
156,60 $
Netflix
Trading plan:
Buy from the level of $ 374.00 with a target of $ 381.5 for a period of 7 days. Potential profit of the trade = 2.0%. The loss limit is set at the price level of $ 359.1.
Factors behind:
NETFLIX is one of the few beneficiaries of the current crisis associated with the coronavirus pandemic and general quarantine (in conditions of home isolation, the demand for streaming services is growing strongly);
The technical picture - the proximity of the psychological level of $ 400 will pull the price upward to test it;
General positive in the Internet business sector;
NETFLIX is a leader in the streaming business in the world, successfully competing with Disney and Microsoft. The company has a fairly effective business, investors clearly underestimate this asset;
Revenues and profits are steadily growing from year to year, the financial position is very stable.
The ongoing coronavirus pandemic makes markets extremely volatile;
Negative news background.
Netflix (NFLX) Price Chart:
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for 7
days before
374,00 $
373,52 $
381,50 $
Mastercard
Trading plan:
Buy from the level of $ 246.5 with a target of $ 251.5 for a period of 7 days. Potential profit of the transaction = 2%. The loss cap is set at the price level of $ 236.7.
Factors behind:
Following the American market, Mastercard shares fell by almost a third, but have already managed to work out part of the decline. In my opinion, the company will be among the least affected by the current crisis, because consumer demand is now entirely focused on online payments. The company's shares can quickly recover their positions;
Mastercard released positive Q4 earnings per share almost 10% above investor expectations. Against this background, the shares rose, but then all the growth was leveled, resulting in a favorable price for a short-term purchase;
The growth of the payment system sector;
Positive trends in the financial technology sector;
The growth of non-cash payments in the world;
Globally, stocks are in a strong uptrend;
Improving technology and increasing monetization.
The ongoing coronavirus pandemic makes markets extremely volatile;
Negative news background.
MASTERCARD (St. Petersburg) (MA), daily chart:
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for 7
days before
246,50 $
239,95 $
251,50 $
Alibaba
Trading plan:
Buy from the level of $ 194.0 with a target of $ 197.9 for a period of 7 days. Potential profit of the transaction = 2%. The loss limit is set at the price level of $ 186.3.
Factors behind:
China overcame the economic downturn caused by the coronavirus rather quickly. This is evidenced by the PMI data - the indicator both in the industry and in the service sector rose above 50 points;
In the context of the coronavirus, the demand for e-commerce versus traditional retail is growing;
The quarantine regime in many countries will additionally support the shares of Alibaba, the leader in the e-commerce sector;
Consumers are increasingly choosing to buy products online;
Alibaba Group is the only e-commerce company in the world to compete on an equal footing with the American giant Amazon.com.
The ongoing coronavirus pandemic makes markets extremely volatile;
Negative news background.
Alibaba (BABA) Price Chart:
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for 7
days before
194,00 $
192,00 $
197,90 $
3M Company
Trading plan:
Buy from the level of $ 138.91 with a target of $ 144.47 for a period of 30 days. Potential profit of the transaction = 4%. The loss cap is set at the price level of $ 127.81.
Factors behind:
The expectation of financial assistance from the state and a significant decline in the share price are the main reasons for the price rebound that we are currently seeing;
The stock breaks the $ 138 resistance.
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for 1
month before
138,91 $
135,50 $
144,47 $
Delta air lines
Trading plan:
Buy from the level of $ 138.10 with a target of $ 143.63 for a period of 30 days. Potential profit of the transaction = 4%. The loss cap is set at the price level of $ 127.06.
Factors behind:
Financial injections from the state and a significant decline in the share price are the main reasons for the price rebound that we are now seeing;
Buying a stock now provides an opportunity to capitalize on the greed of investors who started buying stocks from the bottom without waiting for an improvement in the situation with the spread of the virus;
A breakdown of the resistance of $ 138 is possible with a further rise in the price.
The growth we are seeing now is most likely temporary. The market can turn down at any moment.
3M Company (MMM) Price Chart:
for 1
month before
29,88 $
28,54 $
31,08 $
Magnet
Trading plan:
Purchase from the level of 3180.0 rubles. with a goal of 3308.0 rubles. for a period of 32 days. Potential return on the transaction = 4.03%. The loss limit is set at the price level of 2925.8 rubles.
Factors behind:
Magnit shares have been building a growing trading channel for more than a week, rebounding from a minimum of RUB 2,289;
Channel with a very clear lower boundary. The price, reaching it, immediately bounces up;
There is now an increased interest in the stocks of retailers on the market due to the high demand for a certain grocery basket due to the coronavirus. Magnet is a mass store where many will go for strategic products.
Deepening correction on the Russian stock market.
Magnet (MGNT) price chart:
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for 1
month before
RUB 3,180.0
3202.5 ₽
3308.0 ₽
Adobe
Trading plan:
Buy from $ 317.00 with a target of $ 331.50 for a period of 30 days. Potential trade profit = 4.57%. The loss cap is set at the price level of $ 291.66.
Factors behind:
The company increases sales and reduces debt burden;
The stock chart is in the oversold zone, strong growth to $ 340 is possible;
Q3 2019 revenue was above analyst expectations;
The company maintains a strong position in the core market.
Strengthening the correction of the American stock market.
Adobe (ADBE) Price Chart:
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for 1
month before
317,00 $
314,00 $
331,50 $
LUKOIL
Trading plan: Speculative purchase of Lukoil shares from the level of 4635 rubles. Target 5200 rubles. Horizon 3 months. Potential yield up to 12.1%.
High dividends. At the end of 2019, Lukoil may pay dividends in the amount of 542 rubles. per share, said the head of the company Vagit Alekperov during a conference call on the results of the financial results of 2019.
Taking into account the already paid 192 rubles. per share for the first half of the year, dividends payable in the summer of 2020 may amount to 350 rubles. on paper. In this case, the dividend yield for the six months will amount to 7.5% - a historical maximum.
Leveraged Buyback. As part of the conference call, it was also indicated that the buyback announced by Lukoil could be carried out at the expense of borrowed funds. This is positive news as the company's net debt is close to zero. This means that when the buyback is launched due to the increase in the debt burden, the financial condition of the company should not deteriorate.
Strong oversold. Lukoil shares are more than 30% off historic highs. Despite the deteriorating situation on the oil market, such a large-scale drop in a fundamentally strong chip looks excessive. As energy prices stabilize, market participants may reconsider the company's prospects, which should lead to an increase in shares.
The investment idea is short-term and carries increased risks, given the high volatility in the stock market.
You can get additional return on investment by opening an Individual Investment Account (IIA) and claiming a tax deduction.
BCS Broker
for 3
months before
4635.0 ₽
RUB 4715.0
5200.0 ₽
Children's World
Detsky Mir's dividend yield is still attractive. New formats and development of online sales can accelerate business growth.
Trading plan:
Purchase from the level of 105.2 rubles. for the purpose of 123 rubles. for up to 9 months. Potential profitability of the deal up to + 16.9% excluding dividends. At the same time, a dividend cut-off will take place with an estimated payment of 4.75 rubles. per share. If the dividend cut-off occurs before the target level is reached, the investment idea will be closed after the target profitability of the transaction is fulfilled.
Factors behind:
Business growth. The company reported revenue growth for 2019 by 16.1% YoY to RUB 128.7 billion. LFL sales rose 7.2% y / y. The increase in sales proceeds mainly against the background of traffic growth, which indicates the high competitiveness of the company. EBITDA margin grew at a similar rate to revenues, which indicates continued high margins. The company is increasing the share of its own brands in the sales structure.
Operating results slowed growth slightly in Q4, but results from international expansion continue to grow at a significant pace. Revenue in Kazakhstan for the year increased by 48.1%. The first results of the open stores in Belarus exceeded the expectations of the management, the company aimed at the Kyrgyz market.
New formats. Detsky Mir is testing a new ultra-small format for the Detmir.ru store. It is both a retail store and an online order pick-up point. It is assumed that the new format will increase the presence of Detsky Mir in small settlements and expand the geography of delivery. Internet sales of the company in 2019 increased by 64.5%, the share in total revenue already amounted to 11%. This is the fastest growing segment of the business. The company even made a full-fledged application for smartphones.
Dividend Yield. Despite the active expansion of the network, the company pays out generous dividends twice a year. Interim payments for 9 months of 2019 amounted to 5.06 rubles. According to the Reuters consensus forecast, the potential dividend for 2019 could be RUB 9.81. Then, taking into account the payment of interim dividends, you can count on another 4.75 rubles. in May-June 2020. This is approximately 4.5% of the dividend yield. The company will present its consolidated report for 2019 on March 2, 2020.Then the exact final dividends for 2019 will become known.
Expectation of stabilization of the macroeconomic base. The implementation of national projects involves total costs of more than 25 trillion rubles. until 2024. Part of these funds should ultimately contribute to an increase in disposable incomes of the population and an increase in retail trade turnover. In addition, the retailer should be supported by an increase in child support benefits and an extension of the payment period from three to seven years. The Ministry of Economic Development predicts growth in real incomes of the population in 2020-2021. by 1.7% and 2.2%, retail trade turnover - by 2% and 2.6%, respectively.
The technical picture. After the revaluation, Detsky Mir's shares stopped growing near 120 rubles. Panic sales have driven prices even below the attractive level of 110 rubles. These local highs were observed in 2017 after the IPO.
Product supply chain disruption and temporary decline in demand due to the outbreak of coronavirus in China
Slowdown in network growth and / or decrease in profitability due to increased competition.
Sistema's sale by Sistema of the entire block of shares in Detsky Mir may raise uncertainty regarding the preservation of the current dividend policy.
BCS Broker
for 9
months before
105.20 ₽
91.02 ₽
123,00 ₽
Applied Mtl.
In the technology sector, a new investment cycle has matured in promising technologies for 5G data transmission, artificial intelligence, flexible OLED displays, etc. The first to benefit from the new cycle are manufacturers of equipment for the manufacture of chips and displays. One of the leaders in this sector is the American Applied Materials. The company is listed on the NASDAQ and the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange under the ticker AMAT.
Trading plan:
Purchase from the level of $ 58 (on the SPB exchange) with the aim of $ 75 for up to 12 months. Potential profitability of the transaction = 29.3% excluding dividends. Dividends for the specified period can bring another $ 0.63- $ 0.84, or about 1-1.5%.
Factors behind:
New technological vectors. The company is one of the leaders in the design of technological solutions for the production of semiconductor chips and displays. Promising technologies, such as equipment for 5G networks, virtual reality, artificial intelligence, "Internet of things" require an upgrade of the base for the production of appropriate devices. The cloud computing boom is supporting the demand for Applied hardware and services. The company also expects a recovery in investment demand for equipment for the production of memory chips.
Diversified sales markets. The geography of AMAT supplies is extensive. In addition to the United States, the company supplies equipment and related services to the dynamically developing Chinese market, as well as to technology hubs in South Korea, Japan and Taiwan. Market leaders such as Intel and Samsung are among the company's largest clients.
Trade deal between the United States and China. The first phase of the trade deal with China removed a significant part of the risks from the company. Due to a decrease in investment activity and trade disputes, AMAT recorded a decline in revenue by 12.5% YoY in FY 2019 and profit by 25% YoY. But according to the results of the first quarter. In fiscal year 2020, the company reported a solid recovery in financial performance. Revenue rose 11% y / y to $ 4.16 billion. Net earnings per share (EPS) rose 20% to $ 0.96.
According to the agreements reached between Beijing and Washington, the PRC has committed itself to additionally purchase electrical equipment, production machines and other engineering products annually for $ 33 billion from 2020 and $ 44.8 billion from 2021. We believe that Applied Materials is one of the main beneficiaries of a trade transaction.
Strong outlook for Q2 and 2020. Despite the risks from the coronavirus outbreak in China and beyond, management maintains strong forecasts for the next quarter and 2020 overall. The company expects revenues in the II quarter at $ 4.14-4.54 billion. This is about 25% higher than last year's values. Adjusted earnings per share may rise 40-50% YoY to $ 1-1.1. Reuters consensus forecast that full fiscal 2020 earnings could increase by 32.5%.
Dividends and buyback. The company is an example of a growing business in the technology sector and does not pay high dividends. The quarterly payments are $ 0.21. For the year, the yield could be 1.5% at current share prices. But according to Reuters consensus, dividends from next quarter could rise to $ 0.22. In addition, the company is carrying out a buyback and remains committed to continuing this practice. In the 1st quarter. In fiscal year 2020, the company returned $ 200 million to investors in the form of a buyback, versus $ 192 million in dividends.
Low debt burden. The leverage ratio Net Debt / EBITDA is only 0.3x. Debt / Equity leverage is at a comfortable 0.6x level.
The technical picture. A sell-off in the markets due to fears of the spread of the coronavirus COVID-19 has returned the AMAT quotes to the lows of January 2020. Strong support is being held in the area of $ 56-57. It is also worth noting that the quotes turned out to be near the lower border of the ascending channel, in which the security is recovering after the risks of escalating trade wars have decreased.
Shifting the investment cycle in the tech sector due to the impact of the coronavirus outbreak
A significant slowdown in global economic growth due to the outbreak of a new disease (> 0.3% YoY) may cause a deeper correction in technology stocks and global stock markets in general.
Gazprom is the largest joint stock company in Russia. The total number of accounts on which 23,673,512,900 Gazprom shares are accounted for is over 470 thousand. The state controls over 50% of the Company's shares.
Share capital structure of PJSC Gazprom* Companies controlled by the Russian Federation
Gazprom shares are one of the most liquid instruments on the Russian stock market. The company's shares occupy the largest share in the RTS and MICEX indices. Gazprom's shares are included in the first (highest) listing level on the Russian stock exchanges of CJSC MICEX Stock Exchange and PJSC St. Petersburg Stock Exchange.
Basic information about the shares of PJSC GazpromThe principle of voting at the General Meeting of Shareholders is “one voting share of the company - one vote”, with the exception of cumulative voting in the case provided for by the Federal Law “On Joint Stock Companies”.
Equity history
On May 20, 1993, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation registered, under No. MF73-1p-0204, an issue of RAO Gazprom shares in the amount of 236,735,129, each with a par value of 1,000 rubles.
On October 21, 1994, the Russian Federal Property Fund, in accordance with Presidential Decree No. 1705 of December 31, 1992, based on the results of a specialized check auction for the sale of RAO Gazprom shares held from April 25, 1994 to June 30, 1994 in 61 regions of the Russian Federation, split of RAO Gazprom shares. The splitting was done as follows: 1 share with a par value of 1,000 rubles was split into 100 shares with a par value of 10 rubles.
On August 19, 1998 by the Federal Commission for the Securities Market in accordance with the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of 18.02.1998 No. 217 "On the peculiarities of the circulation of securities in connection with the change in the face value of Russian banknotes and the scale of prices", by the decree of the Federal Commission for the Securities Market of Russia dated 20.04. 1998 No. 6 "On the procedure for amending the decision on the issue of securities, prospectuses for the issue of securities, privatization plans and constituent documents related to the change in the face value of Russian banknotes and the scale of prices" and the decision of the Federal Commission for the Securities Market of Russia dated 17.08.1998 were introduced and registered changes in the prospectus for the issue of ordinary registered uncertified shares (No. МФ73-1p-0204 dated 20.05.1993), as a result of which the par value of ordinary registered shares amounted to 0.01 rubles.
After that, all ordinary registered uncertified shares of OAO Gazprom (from July 17, 2015 - PJSC Gazprom) of the first issue (state registration number MF73-1p-0204 dated May 20, 1993) with a par value of RUB 0.01. in the amount of 23,673,512,900 shares were canceled on the basis of the conversion into ordinary registered uncertified shares of OAO Gazprom of the second issue with a par value of 5 rubles. in the amount of 23 673 512 900 pieces.
Capitalization
The market capitalization of PJSC Gazprom at the end of 2019 amounted to RUB 6.1 trillion, which corresponds to USD 98.1 billion.
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