The number and natural population growth of Russia. Lesson summary "population size and natural population growth" Geography population size and natural population growth
ORG. MOMENT.
“The number and natural population growth, the national composition of the population of Russia”
There has long been an interest in population in the world. It was necessary to know the size of the workforce, the possibilities for forming an army, collecting taxes, etc. For the first time, the population was cited 4 thousand years ago in the states of the East — Egypt, China, and India. Later accounting was carried out in Ancient Greece and Ancient Rome. Since the beginning of the 19th century, more than 2 thousand censuses have been conducted in the world. Currently in the world (with the exception of Oman and Qatar) there are no countries left without a census. Censuses are conducted in most countries of the world every 10 years, as opposed to population counts. Which have the function only to find out the population.
According to the statistics of demographers, over 80 billion people were born on Earth in the entire history of mankind. Annually, 140 million people are born in the world. Every second 3 people appear, every minute - 175, every hour - 10.4 thousand, every day - 250 thousand new earthlings. Each week on Earth, a new Kharkov or Hamburg is added, each month - the population of a country such as Australia or Tunisia.
How is it revealed where the data on the population of countries is taken?
The last census in the Russian Federation took place in 2010. Further changes are identified using current accounting, i.e. take into account how many people were born and died in the village (natural movement ), how much has arrived or left (mechanical movement ).
It was roughly estimated that in Russia on average 1 person is born every 21 seconds, 1 person dies every 15 seconds, i.e. we see that today in the Russian Federation mortality is higher than the birth rate. From here, you can approximately calculate the population in the Russian Federation at any time.
Fertility is the number of births per 1000 inhabitants for a certain period of time, for example, for a year.
Mortality is the number of deaths per 1000 inhabitants for a certain period of time, for example, for a year.
The difference between the number of births and the number of deaths over a given time is called the natural increase (EP \u003d RC)
The set of processes of birth and mortality, which determines the magnitude of the natural increase (or decrease) in the population, generation change, life expectancy of each generation, is called the natural movement, or reproduction of the life of the population.
Vital indicators are usually calculated per 1000 population.
If the birth rate is lower than mortality, then the natural increase will be negative, that is, a natural population decline will be observed, which is typical for today's Russia. This process is called the demographic crisis (Demography is the science of the population; crisis is a sharp turn) - this is a sharp decline in the population.
Since the general mortality rate depends not only on the intensity of mortality, but also on the composition of the population, primarily the age, in regions with a higher proportion of older people, this ratio is usually higher than in regions where it is lower. Therefore, in the geographical space of Russia, the level of the overall mortality rate decreases from the central and northwestern regions, in the population of which there is a large proportion of the elderly, to the southern and eastern regions, where it is still relatively small.
Table analysis. Ten regions of Russia with the highest and lowest indicators of the total mortality rate (ACS) in the first half of 2007, who died per 1000 people
| Regions with the lowest ACS | Regions with the highest ACS |
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| Russian Federation - 15.0 |
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| The Republic of Ingushetia | Pskov region | ||
| Chechen Republic | Tver region | ||
| Yamal-Nenets Aut. district | Tula region | ||
| The Republic of Dagestan | Novgorod region | ||
| Khanty-Mansiysk Aut. district - Ugra | Smolensk region | ||
| Tyumen region | Ryazan Oblast | ||
| The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) | Ivanovo region | ||
| Kabardino-Balkarian Republic | Vladimir region | ||
| Aginsky Buryat Aut. district | Nizhny Novgorod Region | ||
| Kamchatka region | Kursk region | ||
Highest overall mortality rate in the Central Federal District- in the first half of 2007, he amounted to 16.6 ‰(in 2006 - 17.5 ‰), and only slightly less in the Northwestern Federal District - 16.0 ‰ (17.7 ‰ last year). The lowest overall mortality rate is observed in the Southern Federal District - 12.7 ‰ (13.5 ‰). It is slightly higher in the Urals (13.7 ‰ in January-June 2007) and the Far Eastern (13.8 ‰) federal districts. The Volga and Siberian federal districts occupy an intermediate position - 15.5 and 14.8 соответственно, respectively.
What are the main reasons for the decline in population?
Wars(from 1914 to 1922 during the years of the war and revolution 15 million people died, 1933-34 hunger -5 million people, the Great Patriotic War 18 million people, the Afghan, Chechen wars). Demographers calculated that with “normal” development, i.e. without losses from wars, repressions, the population of the Russian Federation would be 270 million (the whole state was practically lost)
The attacks
Disease(1st place in mortality is occupied by cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, STDs, first among which is HIV)
Addiction
Car crashes
Increase in the number of elderly
Fertility decline
What are the reasons for the decline in the birth rate? (economic crisis in the 90s, uncertainty about tomorrow, family planning, in the beginning of the 90s “echo of war”)
What do you know about the national composition of the Russian population?
List the people living within our country? (Russians, Tatars, Bashkirs, Germans, Poles Jews, Koreans, Greeks)
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Slide 1
The number and natural population growth of Russia. Isaeva E. A., a teacher of geography of the highest category, Municipal Public School No. 24, Yoshkar-Ola, the Republic of Mari El.Slide 2
Purpose: to study the population of Russia and its changes. Demography is a science dealing with population problems and its reproduction.
Slide 3
Tasks of the lesson: to study the features of natural population growth in Russia to identify factors affecting its changes; to determine the main socio-economic consequences of the natural decline in the population of Russia. at
Slide 4
Problem-setting: Why is the demographic situation so urgent for Russia at present? To identify demographic prospects both for the nation as a whole and for Russian statehood. Find countermeasures to the demographic crisis in Russia.
Slide 5
The population of Russia and its changes According to the data of the All-Russian population census conducted on October 9, 2002, the number of permanent population of the Russian Federation amounted to 145.2 million people. Estimate the dynamics of changes in numbers.
Slide 6
The number of citizens of the Russian Federation amounted to 142.4 million people (98% of all residents of the country) 1.0 million people have citizenship of other states 0.4 million people - stateless persons. Of the total number of citizens of the Russian Federation, 44 thousand people have dual citizenship. Approximately 1.3 million people have not indicated their citizenship. Work on Table 5, p. 26 2008. Citizenship
Slide 7
Work with the chart: Fig. 8, p26, which trends are observed in the ratio of the birth rate and mortality curves since 1927. In what year did the fundamental change in the dynamics of the United Russia take place in Russia? What changes in the ratio of fertility and mortality curves are observed after 1991? Were there such times in the history of Russia? What historical events are associated with these changes in the United in 1927 and in 1991?
Slide 8
The demographic development of our country over the past fifteen years has been on a downward curve: from 1992 to 2007, the population declined by 3.5 million. The population decline was recorded in 65 of the 89 constituent entities of the Russian Federation.
Slide 9
The tendencies of demographic reproduction that have taken shape in Russia to a large extent determine the scope of forecast estimates of the population that are conducted by Russian, foreign, and international organizations. For example, three estimates of the expected population in a country are given. Forecasts of the Russian population until 2050. 2010 census Forecast options Low Medium High Goskomstat 2015 128.883 134.298 138.364 Institute for National Forecasting 2020 121.983 130.990 137.323 2050 77.165 101.921 122.634 UN Forecast (2001) 2020 127.790 129.687 131.532. 2050 96.084 104.258 113.137
Slide 10
The forecast of the Institute of Economic Forecasting - the population by the end of 2050 will decrease by 30% and amount to 101.9 million people. The forecast of the Population Division of the UN Secretariat, made for Russia, the population in 2050 will be 104.3 million people.
Slide 11
If nothing is done, then taking into account the fact that today in Russia 2 times more people die every year than they are born, then by 2010 it will die 3 times more, by 2015 - 4 times, by 2019 - 5 times, by 2022 - 7 times, by 2036 - 10 times, and by 2048 - 15 times more. Make a conclusion: Today, demographic in Russia is the most serious and urgent problem that requires immediate solution.
Slide 12
The decrease in the population is mainly due to the natural decline in the population. Depopulation is a long excess of the number of deaths over the number of births. During the 90s, the natural decline in Russia grew from 219.8 thousand in 1992 to 943.3 thousand in 2002. What happens in a country with a population?
Slide 13
Natural population growth E | pr \u003d P - C p.26, item 6-definition The most important factors influencing the change in natural population growth are fertility and mortality. EC growth can be: table 6, p. 27 1. Positive if P\u003e C 2. Negative if P
Slide 14
Tasks on the map: 1) In which regions were the maximum indicators noted: Mortality and fertility; 2) In which regions are the minimum mortality and birth rates recorded? 3) What reasons do you explain this?
Slide 15
Maximum mortality rates in most regions of the European part of Russia Maximum birth rates: In the autonomous okrugs and the Caucasian republics 3) What are the reasons for this?
Slide 16
minimum mortality rates In the autonomous regions and the Caucasian republics How can you explain this? Minimum birth rates in most regions of the European part of Russia
Slide 17
POPULATION THEME
Abundance and natural growth
Prepared by: Zadylyak L.M.,
G. Kaliningrad
POPULATION
2. The number and natural population growth
Population geography studies composition, placement, movement, lifestyle
Demography – column - people , the science of the laws of reproduction; studying the distribution by gender and age, marriage.
Population depends on natural and mechanical movement
Natural movement – change in numbers through births and deaths
Mechanical movement (?)
Demographic information serve to develop population policies, workforce planning
Population census at Crimean Federal District 2014 was held from October 14 to 25 in connection with the entry of the Republic of Crimea and the city of federal significance of Sevastopol into the Russian Federation.
C - expanded reproduction P \u003d C - simple P - narrowed reproduction? ? ? Natural population movement At p.26 "width \u003d" 640 " Reproduction - generational change through births and deaths (per mil), i.e. per 1000 inhabitants
2 types of reproduction
1 - medium and low birth rates, a sharp decrease in mortality, a slowdown in population growth
2 - very high fertility with reduced mortality, high population growth rates
Natural growth
E etc. \u003d P - C
R s - extended
reproduction
P \u003d C - simple
R - narrowed reproduction
Natural population movement
U p. 26
Place in the world . USSR took 3rd place in the world
As of January 1, 2015, according to Rosstat in Russia, 146 267 288 permanent residents
10 largest countries in the world by population (2015)
A place
Country
China
Population
India
the date
1,367 ,510,000
1,264, 990,000
% Of world population
320 ,132,000
Indonesia
252 ,164,800
Brazil
Pakistan
203, 692,000
Nigeria
188 ,611,000
Bangladesh
178 ,517,000
157, 609,000
Russia
146 ,270,033
Japan
127 ,130,000
Check item
According to the annual report of the UN Population Fund for 2011, in Russia demographic crisis . The total fertility rate was 1.539.
Almost 60% of all deaths are due to diseases of the cardiovascular system, about 15% - from oncological diseases, about 4% - from respiratory and digestive diseases. In 45%, death from respiratory diseases is caused by tobacco smoking. According to experts, the annual mortality from diseases related to smoking is up to 400 thousand people per year.
Anamorphosis Map *
countries in terms of population in 2050
* Anamorphosis - a graphic image derived from a geographical cards , the scale of objects on which is proportional to the value of their characteristics.
Age and gender pyramids - a graphical representation of the distribution of the population by gender and age, used to characterize age and gender composition of the population.
for 2014
Largest regions by population
Region
Total
moscow
Urban population
Moscow region
Krasnodar region
Rural population
st. Petersburg
Sverdlovsk region
Rostov region
Rep. Bashkortostan
Republic of Tatarstan
Tyumen region
Chelyabinsk region
Nizhny Novgorod Region
Kaliningrad region
Regions with the smallest population
Region
Total
Tyva Republic
Urban population
Republic of Kalmykia
Altai Republic
Rural population
Jewish Autonomous Region
Magadan Region
Chukotka Autonomous Okrug
Nenets Autonomous Okrug
Sources:
- Textbook. Geography. Population and economy V.P. Dronov. M. Drofa. 2010 Internet maps
- Textbook. Geography. Population and economy V.P. Dronov. M. Drofa. 2010 Internet maps
- Textbook. Geography. Population and economy V.P. Dronov. M. Drofa. 2010 Internet maps
- Textbook. Geography. Population and economy of V.P. Dronov. M. Drofa. 2010
- Internet cards
The number and natural population growth (2005-2014)
Current estimates of the population as of January 1 are calculated taking into account the results of the 2005 census, to which the number of births and arrivals in this territory is added and the number of deaths and departures from this territory for each year is subtracted. The calculations take into account the increase or decrease in the population of certain territories as a result of changes in their borders that occurred during the year, as well as changes in the urban and rural population as a result of administrative-territorial transformations, i.e. as a result of a change in the category of settlements (the transformation of rural settlements into urban or urban to rural based on legislative acts). Population figures are for the permanent population. The permanent population includes persons permanently residing in a given territory, as well as foreign citizens and stateless persons temporarily residing in this territory for more than one year. The distribution of the population into urban and rural is carried out according to the place of residence, while urban settlements are considered to be urban settlements classified as urban (cities, urban-type settlements, workers and resort villages) in the manner established by law. Current estimates of the total population at the beginning of 2014 and the average annual population for 2013 after calculating the age and sex structure of the population may be slightly refined.
Natural population growth is the difference between the number of born alive and the number of deaths over a certain period. Natural growth can be a positive value if the number of births exceeds the number of deaths, or negative (natural decline) if the number of deaths exceeds the number of births.
Table 5. The number and natural population growth (thousand people)
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Population (at the beginning of the year), thousand person |
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including: |
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Percentage of the total population, percent |
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urban |
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rural |
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Natural increase, decrease (-) of the population, thousand people |
Analyzing the main indicator of the demographic situation of any country, which is the population and the corresponding natural increase, or decrease, we clearly see that the country's population is decreasing, almost annually. At the same time, both the number of women and the number of men are reduced. As soon as the rural population breaks into the city, due to which the indicators of the latter increase, and the rural population decreases. But the numbers are also declining, decreasing, and we hope that soon they will at all accept a positive result. Moreover, I would like this result to be primarily improved by increasing the birth rate, lowering mortality, and not due to migration.
