Forecasts on the dollar in Belarus. Forecast

Recently, the Russian ruble has been jumping either minus or plus with a rather large amplitude. Meanwhile, in the basket of currencies, which determines the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble, it occupies 50%. At the same time, the dollar is now mostly falling, and the euro - albeit slowly but steadily growing. What threatens us with such fluctuations? What factors can weaken the Belarusian ruble? Will the promised salary of 1,000 rubles affect the course by the end of the year? "AiF" figured out together with experts.

External factor

Belarus’s trade dependence on Russia has not decreased, so it’s still important for us what is happening on the Russian currency market, ” teletradeBel financial adviser Zhanna KULAKOVA. - In 2017, the Russian ruble is strengthening - since the beginning of the year, its rate has grown by about 4% to the basket of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, while oil is now even cheaper than at the beginning of the year.

The main reason for the growth of the Russian ruble was a speculative factor - many large investors invested in federal loan bonds, seduced by a high rate. In order for a foreigner to buy such bonds, he first needs to buy Russian rubles. It turns out that the demand for Russian rubles has grown significantly, because of this the ruble has strengthened, the expert believes.

Over the course of several months, Russian officials and financial experts have prophesied the ruble weakening, but this has not yet happened. There is an impression that in a neighboring country there is some confrontation between the Central Bank, which does not see anything bad in the strong ruble, and specialized ministries that would like to see a slightly weaker national currency. Given that speculative growth is not the most reliable factor, I think that in the medium term we can still see a weakening of the Russian ruble. If the oil market does not present unpleasant surprises, this weakening will be very moderate and, most likely, will not exceed 5-10%, ”Zhanna Kulakova analyzes.

The specialist believes that this will be reflected in the Belarusian market: we will see a depreciation of the Russian ruble and an increase in the dollar and euro rates. It should be remembered that the Belarusian ruble cannot endlessly strengthen against the Russian one - this will harm exports. According to the financial consultant, it is unlikely that the exchange rate of the Russian ruble in Belarus will fall below the level of 3.2 Belarusian rubles per 100 Russian rubles for a long time.

If this forecast comes true, then at the current rate of the dollar against the euro (about 1.12) and with the weakening of the Russian ruble in the foreign market by 5% in Belarus, the exchange rate of the Russian ruble will drop to 3.2, the dollar will rise to about 1.88, and Euro - rise in price to 2.10. If the Russian ruble weakened by 10%, then in Belarus the exchange rate of the Russian ruble will drop to 3.2, the dollar will rise to about 1.97, and the euro to 2.2.

Although in practice, I think, we will see the growth of the euro against the dollar on the world market, as a result of which the dollar will be slightly lower than the forecast, and the euro will be slightly higher.

No pressure

Zhanna Kulakova believes that there is no internal pressure on foreign exchange rates now - a significant currency surplus is forming on the market, which is bought by the state to refinance the foreign currency debt and replenish gold reserves. As a result, the supply and demand of the currency are balanced.

The experience of recent months has shown that maintaining currency stability is now very important for the authorities. Even at the moment when the Eurasian stabilization and development fund delayed the loan tranche, there was a need to pay a huge debt for gas supplies to Russia, as well as to service other currency debts on schedule, the currency market did not budge, the specialist noted.

As for other indicators of the Belarusian money market, by the end of 2017, inflation will not exceed 7%, and interest rates in the economy will drop by another 1-3 percentage points, the expert believes.

Until the end of 2017, Zhanna Kulakova believes, noticeable shifts in the Belarusian foreign exchange market can be caused only by external factors.

Real income

Financial Advisor, TeletradeBel Mikhail GRACHEVhe believes that even if by the end of the year in Belarus real incomes of the population increase significantly, this is unlikely to affect the foreign exchange market. The expert suggests that people will spend money on expensive purchases, rather than buying foreign currency.

The forecast for the dollar for 2017 in Belarus, as in other countries, depends on many indicators and factors, thereby affecting the country's economic development and the well-being of the population. At present, the situation in the country relative to this direction is more stable compared to the others, but, nevertheless, causes some excitement, since everyone agrees with the view that vital priorities and aspects directly depend on the dollar exchange rate. That is why, at present, in the media you can hear quite important, and sometimes completely contradictory opinions. But, nevertheless, first of all, attention should be paid to the most important forecasts, on the basis of which and from which politicians make their decisions.

Forecast course analysts coming soon.

One of the most important and leading opinions, perhaps, is that in the next few years, starting from 2016, and up to 2020, one should expect nothing more than a gradual increase in the value of the currency basket of Belarus. It is worth noting that this particular scenario of the development of the situation is laid down and is the main one in the program of socio-economic development.

What is this program, and what is it made up of? If you carefully study and consider this program, then the following figures and statistics and statistics related to the value of the currency basket should be highlighted.

• - 2016 - 3,432 rubles;
• - 2017 - 3 740 rubles;
• - 2018 - 4 001 rubles;
• - 2019 - 4,242 rubles;
• - 2020 - 4 452 rubles.

This is with regard to the Russian ruble. But, it should be noted that if the ruble remains stable, then weakening of the national currency against the dollar will be significantly observed. In other words, the following picture of prices relative to the dollar is assumed.

• - 2016 - 16 810 rubles;
• - 2017 - 17 735 rubles;
• - 2018 - 18,420 rubles;
• - 2019 - 19 255 rubles;
• - 2020 - 20 165 rubles.

But, slight fluctuations in the numerical parameters of the Belarusian ruble against the dollar are possible and probable, since everything depends on external factors that play an important and significant role. It is worth noting that, according to the statement of the National Bank of Belarus, throughout this entire period of time, the authorities will try to adhere to a tight monetary credit policy, which, if successful, will help restrain the pace of the devaluation of the Belarusian ruble to the currency basket. But do not forget about the dynamics of the ruble against the US dollar, which is also significant.

Today it is well known that the program of the National Bank of Belarus is also designed to address the next very significant and significant task. In other words, all actions will be aimed at moving away from the previous regime of targeting the dollar exchange rate and, as a result, gradually switch to using and applying the mechanism for linking the Belarusian ruble exchange rate to a basket of currencies.

But this is not the one that exists today, but to a completely new model, where the specific weight is the Russian ruble in the amount of 40%, but the share of the US dollar along with the euro is only 30%.

It is such a policy, if successful, that will make it possible in the future to become independent of the US foreign exchange rate.

What will happen to the ruble?

  This is another issue that deserves special attention. Although, it’s worth mentioning right away that there are practically no reasons for feelings, since in this direction there is relative balance and calm. But, according to the National Bank, the exchange rate of Belarusian rubles and the dynamics of their development are also directly dependent and determined in accordance with world oil prices, supply and demand on the domestic market, and the exchange rate of the Russian ruble. And, therefore, it is not worthwhile to give any accurate forecasts regarding the “bunnies”, because the situation is so far developing and moving along the optimal and most favorable path for the development of the country's economy.

The forecast of the dollar exchange rate for 2017 in Belarus, if you know it exactly and to the smallest detail, will help many decide and understand that the priority in choosing a currency is best given to a more stable currency, therefore it will help Belarusians make the right choice regarding deposits, thereby avoiding unnecessary excitement around this currency.

With the relative stability of external factors, the dollar in Belarus in 2017 should not cost more than 2 rubles 22 kopecks.

The population this year, which was not observed earlier, is massively selling foreign currency. A significant excess of the supply of foreign currency over the demand for it ensured the stability of the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble. And what will happen next? The authorities have prepared two scenarios for the development of events in the foreign exchange market, write Naviny.by.

Course for the end of 2017: the authorities made bets

The Belarusian parliament has already begun to consider forecast documents for 2017. From the announced budget parameters, it is clear that the authorities do not officially forecast a large devaluation of the Belarusian ruble next year. However, options are possible.

When assessing the dollar exchange rate for 2017, the authorities proceeded primarily from external conditions. Judging by the plans of the authorities, internal factors on the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble should have an exceptionally beneficial effect in the near future.

According to BelaPAN, the National Bank in 2017 plans to maintain the current monetary policy aimed at limiting the money supply. It is estimated that the average broad money supply will grow by 14%. Accordingly, there is no reason to expect that uncontrolled emissions will lead to a sharp weakening of the Belarusian ruble.

Also, if the plans of the monetary authorities are implemented, the behavior of the population should have a positive effect on the dynamics of the Belarusian ruble exchange rate.

According to BelaPAN,  In 2017, the authorities expect that the population will maintain a steady excess of the supply of foreign currency over demand, and this, among other things, will increase the gold and foreign exchange reserves by half a billion dollars.

At the same time, it is not planned to spend gold and currency reserves to maintain the Belarusian ruble exchange rate - the authorities intend to leave with currency interventions in exceptional cases, to smooth out short-term fluctuations in the exchange rate.

Thus, according to the intentions of the monetary authorities, the accumulation of devaluation potential as a result of artificially maintaining the Belarusian ruble exchange rate should not occur.

In general, internal factors for a sharp weakening of the Belarusian ruble have not yet been seen.

But external factors, experts from government agencies believe, will have an impact on the foreign exchange market.

According to information BelaPAN, authorities' estimates indicate that at an average annual world oil price of $ 35 per barrel, the dollar itself at the end of 2017 could cost 2.21 Belarusian rubles. At the same time, if a more favorable scenario is realized and a barrel of black gold on the world market will yield $ 45 next year, then the dollar exchange rate may reach 2.12 rubles by the end of 2017. Recall that today the dollar is worth 1.96 rubles in Belarus.

The population does not threaten the ruble

Deputy Finance Minister Yuri Seliverstov said this week in the House of Representatives that the budget for next year has been prepared taking into account the average annual oil price of $ 35 per barrel. The authorities decided to take this conservative scenario, which was close to pessimistic, so that in 2017, as in 2016, the budget would not be sequestered.

Meanwhile, this week the price of a barrel of oil in the world market exceeded $ 45 and even approached $ 50. The increase in world oil prices in August already led to the fact that Russia began to think about revising the forecast oil prices upward.

So, the Minister of Economic Development of Russia Alexei Ulyukaev this week said that the agency, along with the base scenario ($ 40 per barrel), sees another scenario ("base plus") for the development of events in 2017, which implies an increase in oil prices to 50 dollars per barrel.

« If oil in the world market rises in price next year, as some foreign experts expect today, up to $ 50-60 per barrel, then against this background the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble may increase", - said a senior analyst at Forex Club broker Forex Club Valery Polkhovsky.

It is known that the Belarusian ruble today is highly dependent on the exchange rate of the Russian currency. According to the estimates of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia, at a world oil price of $ 40 per barrel, the American currency will cost 65 Russian rubles in 2017, and at an average annual oil price of $ 50 per barrel, 61 rubles.

« If in Russia the exchange rate is about 60 Russian rubles per dollar, the US currency in Belarus may be even cheaper than now. In this case, the official dollar exchange rate may drop to the level of 1 ruble 85 kopecks", - suggested in an interview with a correspondent BelaPAN  Valery Polkhovsky.

Analysts of the Belarusian financial market are sure that the National Bank will not influence the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate, which will be formed under the influence of external factors.

« Until 2014, Belarus made attempts to fix the dollar exchange rate at a certain level, which led to the inevitable devaluation of the national currency. Since the beginning of 2015, no one has been targeting the dollar exchange rate in Belarus, therefore its dynamics are a reflection of those exchange rate values \u200b\u200bthat naturally develop on the market", - says a senior analyst at Alpari forex broker Vadim Iosub.

In his opinion, with the relative stability of external factors, the dollar in Belarus in 2017 should not cost more than the above 2 rubles 22 kopecks.

« We have ended both presidential and parliamentary elections, therefore, for the sake of solving populist tasks, no one will definitely increase incomes. Accordingly, there is no reason to expect that the population’s increased demand for foreign currency will form in the country, which will have a negative impact on the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble, ”vadim Iosub believes.

He recalled that this year the population is selling foreign exchange stocks in large quantities, and since the growth of real disposable incomes of the population in 2017 is planned at only 1.2%, it can be expected that Belarusians will continue to donate currency in 2017 to maintain their standard of living .

“If the National Bank’s plans to limit the money supply are implemented, if salaries grow at a slow pace, it is very likely that the devaluation, if any, will be moderate. Such a forecast by the authorities seems plausible. ”- summed up Vadim Yosub.

became an occasion to assess the accuracy of the forecast given by experts a year ago relative to the exchange rate. For the first time the assumptions of absolutely all analysts turned out to be higher  officially established rate (1.9585 rubles to 1 dollar). For the next year, pessimism among forecasters has become less. Most agree that the adjustment will be at the level of desired inflation of 9-10%. At the same time, optimism is based on the amendment that the authorities will not turn on the printing press to achieve a salary of "everyone in 500."

According to the New Year tradition, experts were asked to forecast the dollar against the Belarusian ruble on December 31, 2017.

Sergey Mukhanov, director of the investment company Volat Capital:

- In 2017, the National Bank will continue to pursue a monetary policy in the monetary targeting mode, providing for control over the money supply. The growth in broad money supply is projected at 14% plus / minus 2 percentage points. Accordingly, the effect of issuing money on the exchange rate will be limited. The course will be formed under the influence of market factors of supply and demand.

The main groups influencing the supply and demand ratio of foreign currency will be the population, subjects of foreign trade operations - exporters and importers - and the state itself.

For 11 months of 2016, the population on a net basis sold currencies of almost $ 1.8 billion. Over the same period, the volume of foreign currency deposits of individuals decreased by $ 764 million. The sale of currency by the population is primarily associated with the desire to maintain the usual standard of living amid falling real incomes. Most likely, in 2017 this trend will continue, but it can be assumed that it is no longer on such a scale. There comes a realization that the crisis can be protracted and that you do not have to count on a quick rebound. Nevertheless, a certain reserve is present: the balance of deposits of individuals in foreign currency as of December 1 was about 7.45 billion dollars. Thus, the operations of the population in the foreign exchange market in 2017 will support the ruble exchange rate.

In 2017, the country needs to allocate about $ 2.3 billion to pay off its foreign currency public debt, and $ 785 million for servicing. It is this position that can exert the most significant pressure on the exchange rate. At the same time, next year it is planned to raise funds in the amount of 1.86 billion dollars (including 800 million through a new issue of Eurobonds, 700 million from three tranches of the EFSD loan and 360 million through the issue of domestic foreign currency government bonds), moreover 75% of the funds raised are planned to be spent on debt repayment, and 25% - on the increase in international reserves. Even if plans to raise funds are implemented in full, it is obvious that the amount received will not be enough to repay and service the public debt in full and it will be necessary to use other sources. One of which will be the aforementioned purchase of currency from the population. But taking into account the fact that the volume of net sales of foreign currency by the population will not be as large as in 2016, maintaining a positive balance of foreign trade is critical.

To maintain the competitiveness of Belarusian exports, it is advisable not to allow the strengthening of the real exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble against a basket of currencies. Thus, we can assume that the ruble is devaluing against the basket, at least by the forecast inflation level of 9%. The ratio of the Belarusian ruble to the dollar will largely depend on the ratio of currencies in the basket (dollar, euro, Russian ruble) in relation to each other. The market has an expectation of further strengthening of the dollar against the euro (and this will put pressure on the Belarusian ruble to the dollar), the ratio of the Russian ruble to the dollar largely depends on world oil prices. A significant increase in oil prices (above $ 60 per barrel) is unlikely, as American shale oil producers will actively enter the market at these levels, which will increase supply and limit the “price ceiling”. On the other hand, if the agreement to reduce production reached by OPEC and the affiliated countries is respected, this will have a supporting effect on the price level, which can be fixed at current levels (about $ 55 per barrel). At the same time, with current oil prices and the exchange rate of the budget revenues of the Russian Federation, it is not enough to implement it, respectively, we can assume a slight increase in the USD / RUB rate - possibly up to 63–65 Russian rubles per dollar. As for the Belarusian ruble to Russian exchange rate, in 2017 we enter with a very comfortable level in terms of the competitiveness of Belarusian products in the Russian market - almost 3.22 rubles per 100 Russian rubles. You could even say that this is a course with a small margin. Even with an average exchange rate of 3.06 in October, the balance of trade in goods with the Russian Federation showed a significant improvement. Although there are no more recent data on foreign trade. It can be assumed that the current course will lead to even better results.

There is an assumption that, given the schedule for repaying external debt, the temptation to keep the real exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble against the Russian one at the achieved level will be quite high. Given the projected inflation in Belarus at 9%, and in Russia at 4%, the nominal BYN / RUB rate by the end of 2017 could be approximately 3.35-3.38 Belarusian rubles per 100 Russian rubles. Accordingly, the forecast rate of the Belarusian ruble against the dollar, with some strengthening of the dollar against the Russian ruble, as mentioned above, can be 2.11−2.20. I consider the most likely level of 2.18.

Thus, the external environment in 2017 is expected to be moderately favorable for Belarus, however, it should be used exclusively for macroeconomic stabilization and in no case should it fall into populist measures, including in part of an unreasonable increase in the average salary.

Vadim Iosub, Senior Analyst at Alpari Forex Company in Minsk:

- In my forecast, I proceed from several premises. The currency basket will rise in price approximately proportionally to inflation forecasted by the authorities - by 9%. The behavior of individual currencies included in its composition will depend on how their cross rates fluctuate in world markets. The euro has every chance of catching up with the dollar. Oil is likely to remain in the range of 50–55 dollars per barrel of Brent brand. In Russia, they will give about 67 rubles per dollar. Under such conditions, by the end of next year, the dollar (like the euro) will cost 2.25 rubles. This forecast can be fulfilled if the current monetary policy of the National Bank continues, but there is also a risk factor. These are calls to raise the average salary next year to $ 500, "no matter what." If you really do not look at anything and, in particular, at the growth of labor productivity, you will have to turn on the printing press. And if you turn on the printing press, then with inflation and with foreign exchange rates everything will be much worse.

Katerina Bornukova, expert of the Belarusian Economic Research and Education Center BEROC:

- With the transition to a floating rate, forecasts become more boring and monotonous. Most likely, no significant shocks, either for the better or for the worse, are waiting for us, which means that the exchange rate will be largely determined by 10% inflation. A small influence is also based on the fact that next year Belarusians will stop surrendering at such rates, which means that the rate will drop by a little more than 10 percent of inflation. This is a basic scenario. It is possible that when debt problems in the economy and the banking system, as well as significant external debt lead to a currency crisis, then the rate will be difficult to predict. But I think that even in this unlikely scenario, the dollar is unlikely to cost more than three rubles.

Alexander Mukha, analyst at the BusinessForecast.by research group:

- The main factor in the stability of the domestic currency market of Belarus in 2016 is the large-scale net sale of foreign currency by the population.

So, in January-November 2016, individuals sold on a net basis $ 1.795 billion (including non-cash transactions), non-residents - $ 414.8 million, business entities - $ 46.4 million. At the same time, the structure of net demand for currency by the population in January-November 2016 was as follows: net sale of cash currency - $ 2.273 billion and conversion of ruble deposits into foreign currency deposits on a net basis - minus $ 478.1 million.

As a result, the net supply of foreign currency from individuals and non-residents ($ 2.210 billion for January-November 2016), together with other factors, allowed Belarus to increase its foreign exchange reserves to $ 4.838 billion as of December 1, 2016, even despite significant payments on external and domestic debt obligations of the state in foreign currency.

At the same time, against this background, there was a local strengthening of the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble against major foreign currencies.

Thus, the population has made a significant contribution to ensuring the stability of the domestic foreign exchange market in the past year.

By the way, foreign currency deposits of individuals in January-November 2016 decreased by $ 764 million (or 9.3%), to $ 7.449 billion as of December 1. In general, foreign currency savings of the population in banks (foreign currency deposits, deposits in precious metals and foreign currency bonds of banks) in January-November 2016 decreased by $ 520.9 million (by 5.9%), to $ 8.263 billion as of December 1.

With this in mind, the amount of cash foreign currency that the population, figuratively speaking, additionally removed from under the "mattress" in January-November 2016, can be estimated at least at $ 1.753 billion on a net basis. Obviously, with such a large-scale net sale of cash on the part of individuals, the government and the National Bank of Belarus had the opportunity to wait a bit with the same IMF loan. However, the question arises as to whether the population will be able to provide the same inflow of cash currency into official economic turnover next year.

One of the most important reasons for the increase in net currency supply from individuals was the desire to maintain an acceptable level of consumption in the face of a noticeable drop in real cash income. According to our estimates, the average accrued salary of Belarusian workers (without micro-organizations and small organizations without departmental subordination) in January-November 2016 decreased by 14.2% compared to the same period of the previous year - from $ 415.9 to $ 357 (when calculating the weighted average rate of the Belarusian ruble against the dollar was used: in January-November 2015 - 1.603424 rubles per 1 dollar (taking into account the denomination), and in January-November 2016 - 2.0029 rubles).

At the same time, the accrued payroll for 11 months decreased even more - by $ 2.302 billion (or 16.9%) to $ 11.349 billion. The decrease in the salary fund is associated not only with a decrease in the average salary, but also with a decrease in the average number of employees in the analyzed period by 94,254 thousand people. According to our estimates, next year the population will be more careful in spending its foreign exchange savings and more actively reduce consumer spending compared to the current year. As a result, the net cash supply of foreign currency from individuals in 2017 may decrease significantly, which will lead to an acceleration of the devaluation of the Belarusian ruble against major foreign currencies.

According to our forecast, by the end of 2017, the official exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble against the dollar may drop to 2.25−2.35 rubles per 1 dollar (a point estimate is 2.3 rubles per 1 dollar), which will increase the price competitiveness of Belarusian exporters to foreign markets (primarily in the Russian market).

Vladimir Artyugin, independent analyst:- The determining factor in 2017 for the whole world will be long overdue changes in the global financial and commodity markets. The planned Fed rate hike will provoke a crisis in the financial markets, followed by a fall in commodity prices. As a result of the fall in oil prices to about $ 30 per barrel, the Russian ruble will devalue to 90-100 rubles per dollar. In turn, this will provoke the devaluation of the Belarusian ruble. Given the current ratio of currencies and measures that the Belarusian authorities will take, this means a corridor of 2.5−3 Belarusian rubles per dollar. Since Belarus does not plan to launch a printing press, and taking into account the luck of recent years, the course will be closer to the lower border of the corridor. My forecast is 2.7 rubles per dollar.

Yaroslav Romanchuk, Executive Director of the Analytical Center "Strategy":

- My forecast is based on the fact that the Belarusian authorities are unlikely to be able to repeat the relatively successful monetary policy in 2016. Not because the National Bank will relax and rest on its laurels, but because the forces that require an increase in the volume of soft loans will be significantly strengthened. It is highly likely that Alexander Lukashenko will identify with them, especially if he is tired of waiting for a loan from the IMF. Spoiled relations with Russia, loss of price competitiveness of producers, gross external debt in the region of 90% of GDP ( October 1 was 78%. — Note TUT.BY) and the need to spend $ 5 billion on its maintenance, a sharp increase in bad assets in the banking system and the exhaustion of the population’s currency resources to support the exchange rate are very favorable conditions for revitalizing the inflationary and devaluation tax.