How many dividends are Gazprom in. On dividends on Gazprom shares
The dream "to buy Gazprom shares and live on dividends" can remain a dream if you do not have at least minimal knowledge of what and how to do.
This article contains the required minimum of information, a kind of "educational program" on the issue of "how to receive dividends on Gazprom shares."
Dividend cut-off
To be eligible to receive dividends, you need to be a shareholder on a certain date. This means that you only need to own a share one day a year to receive dividends!
“Dividend cut-off” is a slang term for an important process - drawing up (fixing) a list of shareholders entitled to receive dividends on a share. This list is compiled for a specific date:
And whoever is a shareholder on that date will qualify for dividends. It looks as if we skipped classes (or work) for a whole year, came only to the last lecture, and we would be credited with attendance for the whole year.
It sounds strange, and even absurd, but no other mechanism has yet been invented, and it looks the same all over the world: dividends are paid only to those owners of shares who are included in the "register of shareholders to pay dividends" (this list may be called differently, but the essence is the same - to determine those who are entitled to dividends).
For example:
- It is known that July 20, 2017 is the date of fixing the list of shareholders entitled to receive dividends based on the results of operations for 2016
- One person owned a Gazprom share throughout 2016 and the first half of 2017, but sold it, say, on July 14 - six days before the date of the list of shareholders.
- Another person bought the stock on July 17 - just three days before the dividend cut-off date
- The first person will not receive dividends, and the second will receive (!!!)
The procedure for drawing up the list of shareholders is as computerized as possible, and the process itself, for our own convenience, takes place without our participation: if we are the owner of Gazprom shares, we do not need to worry about anything and think about how we do not need to know the engine of our car in order to drive him to the store.
The organization in which we have an account for the purchase of Gazprom shares (broker) will do everything for us, no additional action is required.
For a person who buys Gazprom shares for years (this is how you need to buy shares and in no case use the money that will be needed in the next 3 years for this), information about the date of compiling the list of shareholders does not give anything special, but it will help to understand the behavior share prices at these special moments and the operation of the entire mechanism described below.
Where can I find the date of fixing the list of shareholders?
Previously, the legislation allowed companies not to announce in advance the date of fixing the list of shareholders entitled to receive dividends. This date was always announced after the fact.
For example, you could find out that the date of compilation of the register was some date two months ago. And only those who owned the share at that time were “lucky”.
But now all companies are required to report this date in advance. This allows all interested parties to prepare for this event and decide for themselves whether it is advisable to own a share and the date of its purchase and sale.
The date for compiling the list of Gazprom shareholders is announced annually at the annual general meeting of shareholders (abbreviated as “OSA” or “AGM”), information about which is also published in advance by the company.
So, to find out about the dividend cut-off date, the following procedure is required:
- You need to find the "Material facts" section on the Gazprom website
- In the list of essential facts, you need to find "Message about the date on which persons are determined ...":
Having opened this document, we will learn about the date when the list of persons entitled to receive dividends on Gazprom shares will be drawn up.
For example, in 2017, the date for compiling the list of persons to receive dividends on Gazprom shares was determined at the AGM held on July 4:
As you can see, the date is set to July 20, 2017. However ... the stock must be purchased no later than 2 business days before this date, because Delivery of a share is formally carried out in 2 days. This rule is called the "T + 2 trading mode".
Trading mode T + 2
The T + 2 trading mode established for the majority of shares on the Moscow Exchange assumes that the delivery of the share occurs two days after the transaction:
Obviously, the letter "T" in this case means the word "TODAY", i.e. "TODAY". Therefore, if translated into Russian, the rule sounds like "Today + 2". This order of transactions is also present in almost all global stock markets, this is completely normal.
This rule must be taken into account. So, for example, if the date of compilation of the list is July 20, then the stock must be bought on July 18 - two working days. This is confusing for all newbies at first, but it's easy to get used to:
July 18 in this example (these are the real dates of the summer of 2017) is the last day when, as they say, "the stock is trading with dividends."
Dividend gap
What immediately comes to mind when the mechanism for receiving dividends becomes clear? What can you do knowing that you can only own a share for one day to receive dividends?
You can buy a share before drawing up the register, go through the "cut-off" ... and immediately sell the share - now we will receive dividends in any case.
Unfortunately, there is no easy money here either - this method does not work, because the day after the last day when the share was traded with dividends ... its price usually falls in proportion to the amount of future dividends.
This is how it looked on the graph in July 2017:
It was known that the company would pay dividends in the amount of 8.04 rubles to all persons who, as of July 20, were the owners of Gazprom shares.
In accordance with the T + 2 trading regime, the last day on which the share is traded with dividends is July 18th. The chart shows that the price for the evening of July 18 was about 124 rubles.
And the very next day, the stock fell by -5.5 rubles to 118, this price gap is called the "Dividend Gap":
This is precisely because many people do this - they buy a share for a short time only to sell it as soon as the cut-off rule is observed.
It is not recommended for an ordinary person (especially a beginner) to play on these price fluctuations and try to make money in this way, since:
- The dividend gap can be much larger than the dividend size, so you can easily get a loss here. Indeed, if the amount of dividends is 8 rubles, and the share is sold after the dividend gap is -9 rubles cheaper, then the result of the whole operation will be a loss
- A novice investor is not recommended to make frequent transactions, but try to adhere to the "buy and hold" strategy (with certain reservations discussed in other articles) - this will save him from most of the dangers that await an inexperienced person in this area
A private investor who adheres to simple and safe strategies (which is described on the pages of this site) should be aware of the dividend gap, first of all, in order not to be afraid of such pictures when a stock loses -5% in one day (and sometimes -10%) of its price.
Now we understand that this is natural and absolutely normal.
Amount of dividends on Gazprom shares
What dividends does Gazprom pay to its shareholders? Below is a table showing the size, dividend payment dates and registries closing dates:
Naturally, the size of dividends in rubles does not tell us anything about the attractiveness of owning such a share until we compare it with the value of the share itself.
In fact, dividends in the amount of 8 rubles - is it a lot or a little? If a share costs 40 rubles, then its purchase will bring only one dividend (there is still a profit from the difference in purchase and sale prices) + 20% per annum, and if 800 rubles, then only + 1%.
Dividend yield- this is the yield obtained according to the formula "dividend / share price". When a company pays dividends of 10 rubles, and the share itself costs 200 rubles, we say that the dividend yield is + 5% per annum (10/200).
Since the price of a share changes every day, the size of the dividend yield also changes with it. To be clear, you can calculate what dividend yield you would get if you bought the stock before the cutoff:
What can be seen from this table? A lot of things:
- Gazprom is one of the few companies that regularly pays dividends. This is very important, as we will see further, considering various approaches to increasing the return on investment (in other articles)
- The dividend yield of Gazprom shares at current prices is quite attractive - about + 6.5% per annum! This is a very good dividend yield for such a liquid stock.
It can be argued that + 6.5% per annum is only the same amount as you can get on a bank deposit in a reliable bank. Yes, that's right, but the income of the owner of the shares is made up not only of dividends, but also of the difference in the purchase and sale prices of shares, tax breaks and much more (we will consider in other articles).
For now, let us dwell in more detail on the paradoxical conclusion that the lower the price, the higher the dividend yield.
Dividend paradox
At first it is difficult to understand, but the lower the share price - the higher the dividend yield and the more attractive the share is! Usually, we are used to adhering to the concept that if something falls, it is bad, and at first it is difficult to imagine that this could mean exactly the opposite.
Let's go back to the very recent past: in May 2017. two months before the payment of dividends on Gazprom shares, their size became known - 8.04 rubles per share (the Board of Directors on May 13, 2017 recommended this amount of dividends to the General Meeting of Shareholders (“GMS”)).
During these two months, when the share could be bought for dividends, the share price fluctuated in the range from 132 rubles to 112 rubles.
- If we bought a share at 132 rubles, then the dividend yield would be + 6%
- If we bought a share at 112 rubles, then the dividend yield would be + 7.1%!
That is, it turns out when the stock goes down ... you can rejoice at it! Indeed, in this case, our profitability will be higher!
A person who understands the action of the entire mechanism described in this article is not at all embarrassed by the fact that the stock is falling, he at this time calculates how the dividend yield of the stock has changed.
Tax
Today, dividends on shares are taxed at a rate of 13%. This means that with the declared dividend of 8.04 rubles per share, we will receive only 7 rubles in our hands!
This is very sad and it is not yet known whether it is possible to receive any tax benefits on dividends, therefore, for now, it is necessary to calculate the return on dividends minus these 13%.
An attentive reader, looking at the pictures about the dividend gap given above, probably managed to notice that with the dividend size of 8 rubles, the price reduction as a result of the dividend gap was only -5.5 rubles, which would give us an income of just over 1% in a couple of days :
- We buy a share on July 18 at 124 rubles
- On July 19, we immediately sell it at a dividend gap of -5.5 rubles cheaper at 118.5
- 01 August we receive dividends of 8 rubles
- The result of the operation: +2.5 rubles from the invested 124 rubles, i.e. actually + 2% in two days!
But, if we subtract taxes, we will see that the picture will change dramatically: + 1.2% (which, of course, is also not bad, but we must remember that such a result of the operation is not guaranteed and the opposite may be true).
How dividends are paid on Gazprom shares
Dividends on shares of Gazprom (and any other company) must be paid within 60 days - this period is established by law for all companies. However, in fact, Gazprom pays dividends within 15 days after drawing up the register of shareholders (see above).
Dividends come to our brokerage account, where Gazprom shares were purchased from us. However, some brokers allow dividends to be credited to a bank account or card. For some, this may be convenient.
The following brokerage companies allow receiving dividends directly on the card:
So, the required minimum of information on the topic “How to receive dividends on Gazprom shares” has been disclosed. With this information, you can move on to the following questions:
- Why does the size of dividends on Gazprom shares depend?
- How to predict the amount of dividends on Gazprom shares
- Dividend
- Corporate process accompanying the procedure for determining and paying dividends
Today, one of the largest organizations in the field of natural gas production in our country is Gazprom. For several years, this enterprise has been carrying out not only exploration and production, but also is engaged in the processing and transportation of resources throughout Russia and abroad. It should be said that Gazprom has at its disposal a huge number of shareholders, the number of which is more than half a million. If you decide to buy Gazprom shares and receive dividends, you should take this issue as seriously and very responsibly as possible.
Dividends on Gazprom shares in 2017
The number of shareholders in Gazprom is growing every year, although this is not surprising. People look at the stability of the enterprise, especially since the state owns a controlling stake, and therefore it is unlikely that such a giant will go bankrupt. Statistics show that Gazprom shares are the most attractive in the huge securities market. Inflation, as well as the significant volatility of the Russian ruble, does not bode well for citizens; therefore, everyone wants to profitably invest in securities and receive good dividends.
Investment forecast
Many financial experts will agree that investing their own savings in the securities of an industrial giant is a benefit in all directions. Forecasts of an increase in prices for energy resources, including oil, did not come true, but the possibility of obtaining a fixed income is always present. Very often, shareholders are interested in the amount of dividends they can count on.
The amount of dividends depends on the specific decision of the main shareholders of the company, where the total amount of profit received by the company, the growth or decrease in the development of society, the state of the internal and external economy and other important points are taken into account.
It is possible that the shareholders will decide not to pay dividends. This may be due to the desire to invest the obtained profit in contracts that are beneficial for the company, allowing to outline a trend for further comprehensive development. If such a fact is present in 2017, then in the next year a pleasant surprise will await the holders of securities, and dividends will be paid in an increased amount. In general, the decision to buy Gazprom shares can be considered economically justified.
How to become a shareholder of Gazprom
If you want to buy Gazprom shares and receive dividends, you need to study the initial information regarding this event. A citizen who owns a package of securities for a certain period of time can receive the right to dividends.
There is such a thing as dividend cut-off. It is this very important process that includes the compilation of the final list of shareholders who have the legal right to receive the approved amount of dividends per share. The list of surnames and names of legal entities is approved every year. If you are on the register, you will definitely be paid a profit. In 2017, this procedure was carried out in July.
If an individual or legal entity owns shares at the date of the register closing, according to the law, dividends will be paid to him. This practice is applied all over the world - owners of shares that are included in the final register of shareholders can count on receiving financial profit. It is among them that dividends are distributed.
Let's consider the situation with a specific example:
- It became known that on July 20, 2017, the register of shareholders with the legal right to receive the amount of dividends approved by the management, calculated based on the results of the financial and economic activities of the organization for 2016, was closed;
- An individual owned a block of shares in 2016, as well as the first half of 2017. At the beginning of the second half of 2017, the owner sold it due to his circumstances;
- Another individual purchased this package, for example, on July 17;
- The first owner may not count on receiving dividends, they will be paid to the final buyer.
When the registry is closed
The very event of drawing up and approving the list of shareholders is carried out using computer software. If you have securities at your disposal, there is no need to think or care about anything. A special program will do everything, and you just have to plan where to spend the received dividends.
If you want to know in advance about the date of registration of the list, you will need to organize the following procedure:
- Using a computer, visit the Gazprom portal and in the material facts section, find the information you need, namely, a message about a specific date for determining the list of shareholders;
- In 2017, the date for approval of the list was set on July 20;
IMPORTANT. Securities should be purchased two business days before the above date, the preparation of the register requires a certain time.
According to the current rule, Gazprom pays dividends once a year, so the question of when dividends for 2017 will be paid can be answered unequivocally - next year, after the procedure of the general meeting and approval of the register.
Amount of dividends
Undoubtedly, all potential buyers of Gazprom shares are interested in the amount of dividends that the company will pay to shareholders. This information can be obtained from your broker, or on the company's website. For example, in 2016, dividends were paid to shareholders in the amount of 8 rubles, but this is a lot or a little. From the price of the stock, which is valid today, it is about 4%.
Gazprom is one of the few organizations with positive growth dynamics, stability, and regular dividend payments to shareholders.
How and where to make a profit
The owners of Gazprom shares receive financial bonuses within two months. Recall that such a period was approved by the government of the country at the legislative level, and for all companies without exception. Usually, Gazprom carries out this measure much faster, without spending even two weeks on it from the date of drawing up and registering the main register of shareholders.
The money is transferred by the accounting department of the company to the brokerage account to which the purchased shares are attached. Brokers, according to agreements reached in advance with the owner of the securities, credit funds to the current accounts of the ultimate owners.
How can you buy securities
It is not difficult to acquire a package of securities. Any share is property that the owner has the right to dispose of without violating the established legal requirements at his own discretion.
If you do not have experience and knowledge of all the legal intricacies of such an operation, you should use the professional help of specialists working in the securities market. Services of a similar nature will be provided by investment organizations or private commercial banks. Shares can be bought or sold at Gazprombank branches and on the stock exchange.
IMPORTANT. You should be aware that Gazprom does not carry out sales, nor does it buy back its own shares. This procedure is implemented by the broker.
Securities can be purchased not only in full package, but also in parts. The seller should be aware that the financial income received from the sale of shares is necessarily taxed, so you will be paid dividends minus fiscal payments.
Data on securities quotes are presented on many Russian stock exchanges, as well as on international financial trading floors. The information is available on the official Internet resource of Gazprom, which can be accessed around the clock.
The dynamics of the company shows that a significant rise in share prices was observed in 2005. Then, in 2008, about 375 rubles were given per share, and by the end of the year, their price collapsed and amounted to 80 rubles. Yes, the crisis that many business people remember brought with it a crushing crash of over 75 percent. Further, already next year, the cost increased by 40 percent, and at the beginning of 2011, up to 200 rubles were given per share. The price is now balanced and represents an excellent chance to buy the stock at a fair price.
Conclusion
In 2017, the company is actively expanding, establishing new production facilities, opening transport corridors, and also intensively developing offshore fields. The company's economic outlook is stable. You can buy Gazprom shares and receive dividends through any broker. Analyze the current quotes, listen to professional brokers and you will certainly be able to significantly improve your financial situation by receiving dividends.
Consider the operating and financial indicators under IFRS for 2016.
Gas production increased slightly in 2016.
Gazprom's total revenue from the sale of gas and other sources (oil and power generation) is growing every year.
Gas sales to non-CIS countries grew strongly in 2016. The most important factors in the growth of Russian gas supplies were: the climatic factor and the decline in domestic production in Europe.
At the same time, gas prices abroad continue to fall.
Revenue from gas sales to non-CIS countries in 2016 remained at the 2015 level. The fall in gas prices was offset by an increase in sales volumes.
Gazprom's revenues from other sources grew mainly due to increased sales of oil and gas condensate.
In 2016, Ebitda and operating profit fell sharply due to an increase in operating expenses by 600 billion rubles (for gas and oil, wages, gas transit, etc.).
Net profit increased by 21% to RUB 952 billion. But about half of this profit is paper profit due to a decrease in the loss on exchange rate differences by 900 billion rubles in comparison with 2015.
Net debt declined slightly and remains low.
Free cash flow remains positive, despite the investment program, and in 2016 amounted to 202 billion rubles.
Cartoonists
EV / EBITDA = 3.9.
Net debt / EBITDA = 1.4.
Dividend
Last year, the company gave 24% of its IFRS profits to dividends; this year, the board recommended a dividend of RUB 186.8 billion to the board of directors. - 19.6% profit under IFRS (7.9 rubles per share).
If Gazprom follows the directive of the Government on the payment of dividends in the amount of 50% of profit under IFRS, this year dividends will amount to 20 rubles per share. In this case, the price of Gazprom shares may jump up to 180 rubles in the summer.
But based on the florid statements of Dvorkovich after the government decree and the fact that Miller always managed to find the right words and argue the impossibility of large payments, I think Gazprom will still pay 8 rubles. I’ll be wrong, I’ll only be glad.
Outcome
Gazprom's quotes fell to almost 120 rubles and it was a great time to buy shares.
Why do you need to buy and buy up to 135 rubles?
Dividends at the deposit level;
The risk of a large decline is minimal, as the paper has been steadily moving in the 130-160 corridor for many years, and the growth potential is huge;
The company makes money even at very low gas prices (as for any product, gas prices are cyclical and a reversal will inevitably come);
When the return on capital investment begins (this should not happen until 2019), the company will start generating large profits and a revaluation of shares will occur;
With huge capital investments, Gazprom has a positive cash flow every year;
The lifting of the sanctions will lead to an influx of foreign investors and an increase in shares in ETFs. But this, of course, is a very distant prospect.
What are the risks for a long-term shareholder of Gazprom:
Growth in gas production from unconventional sources, primarily from shale deposits in the United States and China;
In some countries, an increase in energy production from renewable sources can be expected in the future, which may lead to a decrease in gas consumption in these countries;
Political risks in the Nord Stream 2 and Turkish Stream projects;
The Power of Siberia project may not be as profitable as planned;
Gas prices may remain low for a long time to come.
I think that many risks are overestimated and Gazprom needs to be raised at prices up to 135! Fortunately, the market provides such opportunities and will certainly provide them more than once.
Register Closing Date | Payout date | Dividend (RUB) | % arrived |
---|---|---|---|
20.07.2019 (forecast) | 14.08.2019 | 10.43 | 19.93% |
19.07.2018 | 01.08.2018 | 8.04 | 0.00% |
20.07.2017 | 01.08.2017 | 8.04 | 24.90% |
20.07.2016 | 01.08.2016 | 7.89 | 18.35% |
16.07.2015 | 01.08.2015 | 7.20 | 21.02% |
17.07.2014 | 01.08.2014 | 7.20 | 104.04% |
13.05.2013 | 01.08.2013 | 5.99 | 12.08% |
10.05.2012 | 01.08.2012 | 8.97 | 16.83% |
12.05.2011 | 01.06.2011 | 3.85 | 6.50% |
07.05.2010 | 01.06.2010 | 2.39 | 5.74% |
08.05.2009 | 01.06.2009 | 0.36 | 1.82% |
08.05.2008 | 01.08.2008 | 2.66 | 8.56% |
11.05.2007 | 01.07.2007 | 2.54 | 9.11% |
12.05.2006 | 01.07.2006 | 1.50 | 5.61% |
06.05.2005 | 01.07.2005 | 1.19 | 8.74% |
07.05.2004 | 01.07.2004 | 0.69 | 6.63% |
21.02.2003 | 01.06.2003 | 0.40 | 4.99% |
13.05.2002 | 01.06.2002 | 0.44 | 30.18% |
04.05.2001 | 01.12.2001 | 0.23 | 36.64% |
Aggregate dividend payments by years, Gazprom shares
Year | Dividend (RUB) | Rev. to the previous year |
---|---|---|
Next 12 months (forecast) | 10.43 | 0.00% |
2019 | 10.43 | 29.73% |
2018 | 8.04 | 0.00% |
2017 | 8.04 | 1.90% |
2016 | 7.89 | 9.58% |
2015 | 7.20 | 0.00% |
2014 | 7.20 | 20.20% |
2013 | 5.99 | -33.22% |
2012 | 8.97 | 132.99% |
2011 | 3.85 | 61.09% |
2010 | 2.39 | 563.89% |
2009 | 0.36 | -86.47% |
2008 | 2.66 | 4.72% |
2007 | 2.54 | 69.33% |
2006 | 1.50 | 26.05% |
2005 | 1.19 | 72.46% |
2004 | 0.69 | 0.00% |
2003 | 0.40 | 0.00% |
2002 | 0.44 | 0.00% |
2001 | 0.23 | 0.00% |
Comments on Gazprom profitability
According to the dividend policy, deductions for dividend payments amount to 10% of profit under RAS. Upon reaching the target level of reserves - from 17.5% to 35% of profit. Previously, they paid 25% of net profit under RAS, which, as a rule, is less than profit under IFRS. In recent years, they have been paying dividends at the level of 8.04 rubles per share, without increasing it due to a large-scale investment program. At the end of 2018, the management announced its readiness to increase dividends to double digits.
The last payment of dividends on Gazprom PJSC shares amounted to 8.04 rubles. (0.00% of the profit of Gazprom PJSC). The last dividend payment date is 01.08.2018, followed by the date of the last register close on 19.07.2018. The next date for the payment of dividends on Gazprom PJSC shares is August 14, 2019, and will follow the register closing date (forecast) of July 20, 2019 According to the forecast, the total annual dividend payments on Gazprom PJSC shares in the next 12 months will amount to RUB 10.43. per share. (change to last year will be 0.00%). Country of incorporation of Gazprom PJSC: Russia. Sector and Industry - Integrated Oil and Gas Industry, Energy.
Gazprom dividends for 2017 - latest news
During the meeting of shareholders of PJSC Gazprom, it was decided to approve the amount of dividends for 2017. During this period, the gas monopoly allocated 190 billion rubles, which is 26.6% of the net profit.
Each owner of the gas monopoly shares receives a little more than 8 rubles per share. The income from this is 6%. This is not a large profit margin, since in other large companies you can earn up to 9%.
Payment of dividends on Gazprom shares in 2018
PJSC Gazprom is the last energy corporation to approve its 2017 revenues. The register of shareholders will be closed by the gas monopoly on July 19, which allows to buy its shares by July 17 in order to profit from this transaction. Most of Gazprom's revenues go to larger projects.
Based on the 2017 totals, Gazprom paid less dividends than was set by the Ministry of Finance. According to these recommendations, state-owned companies are required to give shareholders at least half of all profits. The gas monopoly is the only object for which an exception has been made for the second year already.
To compensate for Gazprom's lack of revenue, the government has proposed increasing taxes on the company. The way out of this situation was to increase the coefficient when calculating taxation on mining operations from September 1 to December 3, 2018. Thanks to this, the budget of the Russian Federation will receive another 72 billion rubles. Such measures have already been applied last year.
What will be Gazprom's dividends for 2018-2019? Forecast
According to Timur Nigmatulin, an analyst with the Russian financial group Otkritie Broker, one should not expect a significant increase in dividends due to the increase in the volume of the investment program in 2018-2019. This year, the company will repay only 15.2 billion rubles, and in 2019, 8.4 billion dollars of debt. Improvements can begin only in 2020, when the construction of the Power of Siberia and the Turkish Stream will be completed.
According to Alexander Pavlov, General Director of Petersburg-Invest JSC, with poor development in the market, buying Gazprom shares to make a profit is quite an interesting idea.
Earlier, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation announced that a number of companies that own a share from the state may switch to the payment of interim dividends based on the results of quarters and six months.
Gazprom is one of the largest joint stock companies in Russia, accounting for 11% of world and 66% of Russian gas production. Most of the shareholdings in the companies are owned by the state. One share costs 5 rubles, and on July 2 on the stock exchange one share cost 142.53 rubles.
Investors are just as important market participants as smaller traders. Conceptually, their approach to analyzing the value of a company differs in many respects from the canonical one used by hedge funds. For example, the decision to invest own funds can be made based on the forecast of Gazprom's dividends, and the prospects for interest payments in the coming years.
Consider what the owners promise to investors and how their words correspond to reality.
How Gazprom's dividend rate is formed in 2017
In recent years, the gas production tycoon refused to tie the cost of dividends to the cost of quotations, instead of this Gazprom uses the formula of net profit for the reporting period... However, in reality, the amount of dividends paid on each share is strictly set by the board of directors, and under certain circumstances may differ significantly from the calculated data.
In particular, for the previous reporting period (2016) the recommended amount for the payment of dividends on ordinary shares of Gazprom was 8 Russian rubles, which, given the current value of shares on the market of 120 rubles, is 6.5%.
For comparison, in the pre-crisis period, despite the lower cost of quotations, dividends were close to 9.5% in relation to share prices.
Such a percentage decrease in the size of payments for the company causes great concern among investors. After all, this means that the reserve funds from the net profit on Gazprom's assets have decreased. For a more descriptive value, consider the ratio of dividends to share value for the entire period of the existence of Gazprom.
Share value (weighted average) |
The amount paid dividends |
Ratio | Year |
125 | 8,039 | 6,4% | 2016 |
140 | 7,89 | 5,6% | 2015 |
120 | 7,2 | 6% | 2014 |
110 | 7,2 | 6,3% | 2013 |
120 | 5,99 | 5% | 2012 |
145 | 8,97 | 6,2% | 2011 |
132 | 3,85 | 2,9% | 2010 |
140 | 2,39 | 2,5% | 2009 |
Gazprom dividend schedule by years
Important changes in the collection of payments . Based on expert forecasts, Gazprom has about 236.6 million working capital. If we take the aggregate weighted average interest on payments - in recent years (since 2009), the gas production tycoon paid a total of 135 million rubles to the holders of ordinary shares, and about 45% of this amount to the holders of preferred shares.
Given the presence of a controlling stake in the hands of the corporation of directors, most of the amount remained within the company's capitalization, which made it possible to progress in the pre-crisis period.
Will Gazprom fulfill its dividend obligations?
Despite experts' forecasts regarding a further drop in the cost of Russian gas, we we can predict an increase in dividend payments due to several factors.
- High inflation rate due to the general weakening of the ruble. If we consider this factor soberly, then in dollars the amount of payments for Gazprom may even decrease, but when considering the interest in national currency, the amount will increase.
- General strengthening of the company, due to the recoupment of new gas channels, which are not conducted through politically unstable Ukraine.
In general, at the end of 2017, the board of directors at Gazprom promises its investors up to 7% in relation to share prices unless there are big shifts caused by political repression and gas rollback from the countries of Eastern Europe. Analysts' forecasts in this regard are more pessimistic - only 5%.
What risks may Gazprom's management face in 2017
Despite the generally positive outlook for the company on the part of investors, there are several important factors, each of which may affect the forecast and calculation of Gazprom's annual payments in 2017.
- Unprofitable projects. In particular, we are talking about new gas channels, which can start functioning only by the 3rd quarter of 2018, with the estimated data for the 4th quarter of 2017. In this case, the company expects a large outflow of investment funds, which will lead to a decrease in stock prices, and, accordingly, net profit, on the basis of which the company's annual interest rate is calculated.
- Strengthening oil. The second factor that can significantly reduce the amount of dividends paid in Gazprom during 2017 is a significant strengthening of oil. After the settlement of conflicts in the east, thanks to the efforts of Donald Trump and the US military, oil stabilized for the first time in the past 2 years, showing a minimum, and as a result, it again became a reliable asset for investors.
- The transition of European countries to alternative energy sources can reduce the level of consumption of Russian gas, thereby reducing profits at the general rate of production and, as a consequence, reducing the amount of payments by the company to its depositors.
conclusions
Unfortunately, the good dividends offered by the upcoming forecasts do not always really reflect the state of affairs. In order to retain their main investors, managers overestimate the profitability of payments, thereby confusing forecasts and experts' calculations.
The importance of dividends in investing is a whole section of the economy that is fundamentally different from the analysis of quotes. After all, both short-term and long-term prospects are taken into account when making a decision and forecasting. And most importantly, quite often, dividends can compensate for sharp surges in stocks and incorrect predictions. Regardless of whether you are using the Graham and Biggs criteria for evaluating and forecasting an enterprise, or making a forecast of Gazprom quotes, you must consider all the factors of pricing.
In any case, it is possible to carry out forecasts until the end of 2017 only after the new quarterly IFRS report on the company's profitability.