Mechanical population growth. Mechanical population growth rate
The population of the region is characterized by the following data, thousand people:
1. At the beginning of the year:
actually lived 1504.6
including temporarily 7.3
temporarily absent 4.8
2. During the year:
born 7.8
including resident population 7.6
died 10.2
including resident population 10.1
arrived for permanent residence 35.6
the resident population left for permanent residence in other settlements 18.6
Define:
1) the number of the available population at the end of the year;
2) the number of resident population at the beginning and end of the year;
3) for the permanent population the coefficients:
Fertility, mortality, natural growth;
Vitality, population turnover, economy of reproduction;
Migration, intensity of migration turnover; efficiency of migration, general population growth.
Decision:
1) The number of the available population at the end of the year is found according to the balance sheet:
NN K \u003d NN N + N - M + arrived for permanent residence +
Returned from among those temporarily absent -
The permanent population left for permanent residence in other settlements
NN K and NN N - the number of the available population at the end and beginning of the year,
N and M - the number of births and deaths in the current population during the year.
NN K \u003d 1504.6 + 7.8 - 10.2 + 35.6 - 18.6 \u003d 1519.2 thousand people.
2) The number of resident population at the beginning of the year is found by the formula:
PN N \u003d NN N - VP N + VO N,
PN N, NN N, VP N, VO N - the number of permanent, available, temporarily residing and temporarily absent population at the beginning of the year.
PN N \u003d 1504.6 - 7.3 + 4.8 \u003d 1502.1 thousand people.
at the end of the year:
PN K \u003d PN N + N - M + P - V,
N and M - the number of births and deaths in the resident population during the year;
P and V - the number of resident population who arrived and left for permanent residence during the year.
PN K \u003d 1502.1 + 7.6 - 10.1 + 35.6 - 18.6 \u003d 1516.6 thousand people.
3) To calculate the coefficients of natural and mechanical growth, it is necessary to find the average resident population.
Having data on the number of resident population at the beginning and end of the year, the average number is determined by the simple arithmetic mean formula:
The fertility rate is calculated using the formula:
The mortality rate is calculated using the formula:
The rate of natural growth can be determined by the formula:
For every thousand of the resident population, 5 children were born during the year, about 7 people died, the natural loss was about 2 people.
Let us determine the vitality coefficient (Pokrovsky indicator), which is the ratio of the number of births to the number of deaths (per year) according to the formula:
The population turnover ratio is calculated using the formula:
The number of births and deaths per 1000 people is on average 11.73 per year.
The coefficient of efficiency of reproduction shows the proportion of natural growth in the total turnover of the population.
The coefficient of efficiency of population reproduction is:
Consequently, in the region, the share of natural decline in the total turnover of the population is 14%.
Let's calculate the indicators of mechanical movement (migration) of the population.
The mechanical movement (migration) of the population is the arrival and departure from a given settlement.
The arrival rate is determined by the formula:
For every 1000 resident population, an average of 23 people arrived annually.
The retirement rate is determined by the formula:
The number of people leaving for every 1000 people of the population averaged about 12 people per year.
The migration coefficient (mechanical growth) is calculated in two ways:
The population influx into this territory was 11 people for every 1000 resident population.
The intensity factor of migration turnover is calculated by the formula:
Migration efficiency factor is calculated by the formula:
Adding the migration rate to the rate of natural increase, we obtain the rate of total population growth
which means an increase for every 1000 people.
ecson.ru
The essence of migration and migration gain
Simplified, the concept of "migration" stands for change of residence (relocation).
The phenomenon of migration is one of the key concepts of the demographic process, since the functioning of the state is directly dependent on this action. Migration affects the population of a state, determining its economic position.
The concept of migration growth is denoted in demography as the difference between those who arrive in any country (region, territory) for permanent residence, and those who irrevocably leave it.
The migration process is classified according to several criteria:
- the size;
- the form;
- cause;
- character;
- time parameter;
- legal status.
Migration growth formula
To calculate the migration gain, several factors may be required:
- the number of people who arrived in any region (P);
- the number of people who left the region (B),
- net (balance) migration (MS).
The formula for migration gain is the difference between people who arrived and who left the corresponding territory:
MS \u003d P-B.
The formula for migration gain can give both positive and negative results. If the resulting total is less than zero, then we can talk about “migration loss”. A positive number is required to get the opposite result.
Mechanical population growth
There is a second method for calculating the migration gain in the case when the total and natural increase is known. Mechanical increment is obtained by subtracting natural increment from the total increment.
Relative values \u200b\u200bof the indicator can be calculated for certain population groups. For example, the number of newcomers is divided by a certain number of local residents (often by a thousand). The formula for migration growth in this case is as follows:
KP \u003d (P / N) * 1000.
CP - arrival coefficient,
N the number of visitors,
H is the number of local residents.
To obtain more accurate statistical indicators, average values \u200b\u200bare calculated over several years, which makes it possible to analyze the current situation, determine immigration policy and manage labor resources.
Types of migration
In accordance with the type of migration, the features of the migration increase will also differ:
- Episodic migration (vacation, tourism, business) has no time frame or direction. Migration is uncontrolled and poorly studied.
- Pendulum migration is caused by the need of the population for constant travel (for example, daily trips to work or study). This type of movement does not have a significant impact on migration gain, unless the person decides to change his place of residence.
- Seasonal migration, due to which the deficit of labor is replenished, the needs of production are being met.
- Irretrievable migration, on which the size of the migration increase depends most of all. It represents an irrevocable displacement or complete change of residence.
ru.solverbook.com
Basic concepts:
population statistics; the number of resident population; average population; overall growth; natural growth; mechanical gain; total growth rate; fertility rate; mortality rate; Pokrovsky coefficient; infant mortality rate; mechanical population growth rate; working capacity ratio of the entire population; the number of resident population; labor resources; able-bodied population.
Population statistics (demographic statistics) studies the patterns of quantitative changes in the population. In accordance with this main task, she studies: the number, composition and movement of the population; causes and factors of population change, its migration, fertility, mortality, life expectancy. She studies the composition of the population according to various criteria - sex, age, social status, education.
Objectives of population statistics:
· Study of the number, location, demographic and socio-economic composition;
· Analysis of reproduction and population dynamics;
· Determination of the prospective size of the entire population and its individual contingents.
The population size is determined by the state at a certain point in time, i.e. as a result of censuses. The census is currently the main method for accurately determining the population size. However, population censuses are relatively rare and population data are required continuously. Therefore, in the periods between censuses, statistical bodies carry out the so-called current estimate of the population size, i.e. carry out the calculation based on the data of the last census and materials of current statistics on population movements. Its calculations are updated based on the results of the next census.
There are two categories of the population taken into account in the course of population censuses: permanent settlement and actual population. TO permanent population are persons who usually live in a given locality, and to cash- all persons who were at the critical moment of the census in a given territory, regardless of whether they permanently reside here or temporarily. In order to determine the size of the resident population, during the census, a record of temporarily absent and temporary residents is made. Permanent residents of a given settlement who have temporarily left it are considered to be temporarily absent. Thus, those temporarily absent are part of the permanent population. Temporary residents make up part of the existing population.
Resident population you can define:
where is the available population;
- temporarily absent;
- temporarily arrived.
The indicator of the average population is of great importance in population statistics. Average number population can be calculated using different methods. The most accurate method is the person-years lived by the population. In this case, the total number of person-years lived by a given population for the studied period of time is determined and divided by the length of this period. Often the average annual population is defined as the half-sum of its size at the beginning and end of the year:
,
.
The population is the main material component of society, and the study of the laws of its development is of great importance for the country's economy.
· Natural movement (fertility and mortality);
· Migration (mechanical) movement.
· Population censuses;
· Current registration of the natural movement of the population and its migration;
· Selective and special demographic surveys;
· Registers and various population records.
The main source of population data is the census, which is conducted once every 10 years. The population census during its implementation is carried out in settlements as of a certain point in time, which is called a critical moment. In 1853, the principles for conducting the census were formed, the main ones of which are still used today.
Total absolute population growth ():
or
,
where is the natural growth;
- mechanical gain.
Wherein: ; ,
where is the number of births;
- the number of deaths;
- the number of arrivals;
- the number of dropped out.
Both general and natural, and migration gains can be positive or negative. Absolute gains - these are interval indicators, they are calculated for certain periods of time (annual indicators are of the greatest importance).
Population data are presented in a territorial context (within administrative-territorial units). Structural indicators are used to characterize the distribution of the population. These are: 1) the proportion of the population living in certain regions; 2) the indicator of physical density of the population, which is calculated as the ratio of the population to the area occupied by it (the highest population density - 15539 people per 1 km 2 - in Monaco).
· small - with the number of inhabitants up to 50 thousand;
· average - 50-100 thousand;
· big - 100-250 thousand;
· large - 250-1 million;
· the largest - more than 1 million
Studying the birth rate, mortality and natural population growth, statistics, first of all, determines their absolute size, i.e. sets the number of births, the number of deaths and the difference between these numbers, called absolute indicator of natural population growth... These indicators are calculated for a certain period of time - a year, a month, etc.
Fertility rate for 1000 people:
,
where is the number of births;
Mortality rate for 1000 people:
,
where M - the number of deaths.
Natural growth rate:
.
Population vitality rate (Pokrovsky):
,
Infant mortality rate (rat's formula):
,
where - those who died before 1 year;
- born;
Specific fertility rate calculated as the ratio of the number of births () to the average number of women of reproductive age (15-49 years,):
Total fertility rate (n) is equal to the product of the special fertility rate by the proportion of women aged 15-49 in the entire population ():
,
where .
Migration balance:
Overall absolute growth: .
Mechanical population growth rate:
.
General population growth rate:
or
.
Labor resources- this is a part of the country's population that has the necessary physical development, health, education, qualifications and professional knowledge to work in the national economy. Labor force statistics study the following categories:
· Population of working age;
· Working-age population of working age;
· Labor resources.
Labor resources in general Are potential labor resources. In addition to them, there are also existing (functioning or used) labor resources. This is a part of the general labor resources employed in the national economy. The difference between potential and current labor resources characterizes the absolute value of unused labor resources.
Able-bodied population- this is a set of people capable of work by age and state of health. Working age limits are established by labor legislation. In Belarus the working age population is considered: for men - 16-59 years; for women - 16-54. The rest of the population is considered disabled by age. It is divided into two specific groups: the population in the pre-working age (10-15) and the population in the post-working age (men 60 and older, women 55 and older). The first of them is a source of compensation for losses and replenishment of labor resources in the future. The second is the “retirement burden” on the working population.
The working-age population is not all capable of work. Therefore, it is divided into the working-age population and the disabled working-age population. Pupils and students of working age, taking part-time studies at universities and vocational schools, and persons in military service do not participate in social production. In addition, they include the part of the population employed in their household, caring for children, and other reasons.
· The entire population;
· The population of working age.
Working capacity ratio of the whole population:
,
- total population.
Working capacity ratio of the working age population:
,
Aged dependency ratio:
,
Labor force replacement rate:
,
Total load factor (coefficient of economy of the age composition) reflects the degree of workload of the working-age population by the population of all non-working ages.
or
.
The employed population, in addition to the able-bodied population, includes working pensioners (people of retirement age, but not retired; invalids of I and II disability groups); working teenagers under 16.
To characterize the change in the number of labor resources over time and the rate of its change are calculated: absolute growth; growth rate and growth rate of labor resources.
· The exit of some people beyond the working age;
· Transition to disability and retirement on preferential terms;
· of death.
The number of potential labor resources can be determined at the beginning and at the end of the year, taking into account and excluding the migration balance. The difference between the number of potential resources at the beginning and end of the year is the absolute natural increase (). To characterize the intensity of reproduction of labor resources, calculate rate of natural growth ():
;
,
Natural replenishment rate:
,
Retirement rate:
,
where is natural retirement.
Then the coefficient natural growth:
An indicator characterizing the demand and supply of labor - vacancy rate:
,
The level of intensity of the expected release of labor force:
.
The most important grouping of the economically active population is its division into employed and unemployed.
Unemployment ratecan be calculated in two versions:
Test questions for topic number 15
1. How to determine the average annual population?
2. How to find the absolute population growth for the year?
3. How to determine the Pokrovsky coefficient?
4. How to determine the specific fertility rate?
5. Labor resources, main categories.
lektsia.com
Population statistics (demographic statistics) studies the patterns of quantitative changes in the population. In accordance with this main task, she studies: the number, composition and movement of the population; causes and factors of population change, its migration, fertility, mortality, life expectancy. She studies the composition of the population according to various criteria - sex, age, social status, education.
Objectives of population statistics:
study of the number, location, demographic and socio-economic composition; analysis of reproduction and population dynamics; determination of the prospective size of the entire population and its individual contingents.
Population size is the baseline for calculating many indicators and is of great economic and social importance. Knowledge of it is necessary for the management, planning of the economic and social development of the country. A country's size is usually judged by its population.
Population size is constantly changing due to birth and death rates, as well as due to spatial movement of the population.
The population size is determined by the state at a certain point in time, i.e. as a result of censuses. The census is currently the main method for accurately determining the population size. However, population censuses are relatively rare and population data are required continuously. Therefore, in the periods between censuses, statistical bodies carry out the so-called current estimate of the population size, i.e. carry out the calculation based on the data of the last census and materials of current statistics on population movements. Its calculations are updated based on the results of the next census.
There are two categories of the population taken into account in the course of population censuses: permanent settlement and actual population. The permanent population includes persons who usually reside in a given locality, and the cash includes all persons who were at the critical moment of the census in a given territory, regardless of whether they permanently reside here or temporarily. In order to determine the size of the resident population, during the census, a record of temporarily absent and temporary residents is made. Permanent residents of a given settlement who have temporarily left it are considered to be temporarily absent. Thus, those temporarily absent are part of the permanent population. Temporary residents make up part of the existing population.
The resident population can be determined:
where is the available population;
- temporarily absent;
- temporarily arrived.
The indicator of the average population is of great importance in population statistics. The average population can be calculated using different methods. The most accurate method is the person-years lived by the population. In this case, the total number of person-years lived by a given population for the studied period of time is determined and divided by the length of this period. Often the average annual population is defined as the half-sum of its size at the beginning and end of the year.
,
where is the population at the beginning of the year;
- population size at the end of the year.
If there is data for several dates equidistant from one another, the calculation can be made according to the formula for the average chronological simple:
.
If the time distance between the dates is not the same, then the calculation is carried out according to the formula of the arithmetic (chronological) weighted average:
To calculate the change in population over time, indicators of dynamics are calculated.
The population is the main material component of society and the study of the laws of its development is of great importance for the country's economy.
For each individual country, the total population can vary due to two factors:
natural movement (fertility and mortality); migratory (mechanical) movement.
However, not only the total population is changing, but also the composition.
Currently, statistics use four complementary sources of population data:
population census; current registration of the natural movement of the population and its migration; sample and special demographic surveys; registers and various population records.
The data from these sources is used for different purposes and cannot be substituted for each other. However, there is a close connection between them: each source complements or continues the other.
The main source of data on the population is the census, which is carried out once every 10 years. The population census during its implementation is carried out in settlements as of a certain point in time, which is called a critical moment.
When characterizing the dynamics of population size, two circumstances must be taken into account:
1) you can compare the population of only one category (either permanent or available);
2) if there were administrative-territorial changes, then the data on the population size should be comparable in relation to the territory.
Total absolute population growth ():
or
,
where is the natural growth;
- mechanical gain.
Wherein ;
,
where is the number of births;
- the number of deaths;
- the number of arrivals;
- the number of dropped out.
Both general and natural, and migration gains can be positive or negative. Absolute gains are interval indicators, they are calculated for certain periods of time (annual indicators are of the greatest importance).
Population data are presented in a territorial context (within administrative-territorial units). Structural indicators are used to characterize the distribution of the population. These are: 1) the proportion of the population living in certain regions; 2) the indicator of physical density of the population, which is calculated as the ratio of the population to the area occupied by it (the highest population density - 15539 people per 1 km2 - in Monaco).
One of the main characteristics of the distribution of the population is its division into urban and rural. According to the accepted classification, cities are divided into:
small - with a population of up to 50 thousand; medium - 50-100 thousand; large - 100-250 thousand; large - 250-1 million; the largest - more than 1 million
Studying the birth rate, mortality rate and natural population growth, statistics, first of all, determines their absolute size, i.e. establishes the number of births, the number of deaths and the difference between these numbers, called the absolute indicator of natural population growth. These indicators are calculated for a certain period of time - a year, a month, etc.
Relative indicators are also calculated for these values, called coefficients.
Fertility rate per 1000 people:
,
where is the number of births;
- the average population.
Death rate per 1000 people:
,
where M is the number of deaths.
Natural growth rate:
or is equal to the difference between the fertility rate and the death rate:
.
Population vitality coefficient (Pokrovsky):
,
shows how many newborns are there for one deceased.
Child mortality rate (Rats formula):
,
where - those who died before 1 year;
- born;
- born in the year preceding this one.
The specific fertility rate is calculated as the ratio of the number of births () to the average number of women of reproductive age (15-49 years,):
The total fertility rate (n) is equal to the product of the special fertility rate by the proportion of women aged 15-49 years in the entire population ():
,
where .
Migration balance:
Overall absolute growth: .
Mechanical population growth rate:
.
General population growth rate:
or
.
The indicators of the natural movement of the population include the indicators of marriages and divorces. Population migration rates are also calculated. Distinguish between immigration and emigration. The indicators of migration are the number of arrivals to a given settlement, those who left, and the difference between them is the balance of migration. The balance can be positive (mechanical population growth) and negative. The intensity of migration and emigration, as well as the relative change in the number, is defined as the ratio of these indicators to the average population, multiplied by 1000.
Labor resources are a part of the country's population that has the necessary physical development, health, education, qualifications and professional knowledge to work in the national economy. Labor force statistics study the following categories:
working-age population; able-bodied population of working age; labor resources.
The number of the country's labor resources is primarily determined by the size of the working-age population.
Labor resources in general are potential labor resources. In addition to them, there are also existing (functioning or used) labor resources. This is part of the general labor resources employed in the national economy. The difference between potential and current labor resources characterizes the absolute value of unused labor resources.
To characterize the age structure of the population in terms of labor resources, a number of relative indicators of structure and coordination are calculated. This is the proportion of persons under working age, working age and older than working age in the total population. The higher the proportion of people of working age, the more efficient the age structure of the population in terms of labor resources.
The able-bodied population is a set of people capable of work due to age and health status. Working age limits are established by labor legislation. In Belarus, the working age population is considered: for men - 16-59 years; for women - 16 - 54. The rest of the population is considered to be disabled by age. It is divided into two specific groups: the population in the pre-working age (10-15) and the population in the post-working age (men 60 and older, women 55 and older). The first of them is a source of compensation for losses and replenishment of labor resources in the future. The second is the "pension burden" on the working population.
The population of working age is not all capable of work. Therefore, it is divided into the working-age population and the disabled working-age population. Students of working age, taking part-time studies at universities and vocational schools, and persons in military service do not participate in social production. In addition, they include the part of the population engaged in caring for children in their household and for other reasons).
The second group includes the population of working age with I and II disability groups and persons receiving a pension on preferential terms.
The number of labor resources is determined as of a certain point in time. When calculating a number of indicators, the average annual number of labor resources is used, which is determined in the same way as the average annual population.
On the basis of these contingents of the population, two coefficients of working capacity are determined:
the entire population; population of working age.
Working capacity ratio of the entire population:
,
where is the working-age population of working age;
- the entire population.
Working capacity ratio of the working age population:
,
where is the working age population.
Aged dependency ratio:
,
where is the population of retirement age.
Labor force replacement rate:
,
where is the population of pre-working age.
The coefficient of the total load (coefficient of economy of the age composition) reflects the degree of load of the working-age population by the population of all non-working ages:
or
.
In addition to the able-bodied population, the employed population includes working pensioners (people of retirement age, but not retired; invalids of I and II disability groups), working adolescents under 16 years of age.
To characterize the change in the number of labor resources in time and the rate of its change, the absolute growth, the growth rate and the growth rate of labor resources are calculated.
The change in the number of labor resources from one date to another within a year is called the movement of labor resources. Distinguish between natural and mechanical movement of labor resources.
Natural movement consists of the replenishment of potential labor resources due to the transition of the younger generation to the working age (15-16) and their loss due to:
the exit of some people beyond the working age; transition to disability and retirement on preferential terms; of death.
In mechanical movement, replenishment occurs as a result of immigration, and decline - as a result of emigration of the population.
The number of potential labor resources can be determined at the beginning and at the end of the year, taking into account and excluding the migration balance. the difference between the number of potential resources at the beginning and end of the year is the absolute natural increase (). To characterize the intensity of reproduction of labor resources, the coefficient of natural growth is calculated ():
;
,
where is the coefficient of natural replenishment;
- the rate of natural retirement;
- the average annual number of labor resources.
Natural replenishment rate:
,
where is the natural replenishment.
Retirement rate:
,
where is natural retirement.
Then the rate of natural growth:
The indicator characterizing the demand and supply of labor is the level of vacancy:
,
where is the declared number for the required labor force;
- the average number of employees of the enterprise.
The level of intensity of the expected release of labor force:
.
Unemployment rate:
Indicators characterizing the age structure of the population in terms of labor resources are important for the Republic of Belarus and its regions.
test questions
How to determine the average annual population? How to find the absolute population growth for the year? How to determine the Pokrovsky coefficient? How to determine a specific fertility rate? Labor resources, main categories. How to calculate the retirement burden ratio of the population?
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The migration balance is often used in statistics. The indicators are often called mechanical population growth. This is the so-called absolute value, which depends on the total number of people living in a particular region.
What are the types of indicators
These are the absolute rates of migration:
- number of people who came to the region (city. region) - P;
- the number of persons who left - B;
- net migration or balance - MS;
- migration turnover (gross or volume) - MO.
Mechanical population growth
The migration balance is calculated as the difference between the persons who arrived and those who left for a certain time and a specific territory. This is what the formula for migration gain looks like:
This indicator can be negative (population decline), positive (growth), or equal to 0.
There is a balance of internal and external migration, movement of groups on a certain basis - urban and rural residents, women and men.
If data are available, what is the general and natural population growth, you can calculate the mechanical increase as the difference between the 1st and 2nd.
Migration volume
The formula for the volume of migration is calculated as the sum of citizens who arrived and left from a certain territory and characterizes the total flow of people:
Relative values
Partial and general coefficients and indices of relative movement intensity for certain groups are differentiated:
- the arrival rate refers to the number of arrivals for every 1000 people per year in the region:
Kpr \u003d (P / N) * 1000
H - the number of people living in the designated area per year
- Departure rate, indicating how many residents have departed for every thousand:
Cube \u003d (W / H) * 1000;
- migration balance ratio:
KMS \u003d ((P-V) / N * 1000;
- migration coefficient turnover
KMO \u003d ((P + V) / N) * 1000
- Coef. migration efficiency is the ratio in% balance to turnover:
KEM \u003d ((P-V) / (P + V)) * 100
- relative migration. balance.
MSO \u003d (P / V) * 100. This is the ratio of the number of arrivals to the number of those who left, in%.
You can also calculate averages over a couple of years. This is necessary to avoid unintentional deviations in values. In this case, for the calculation, you need to take the absolute average values \u200b\u200band information about the number of residents for the required period.
In order to understand what part falls on separate groups in the total value of departures and arrivals, the relative intensity indices are calculated.
Indicators of statistics on external migration of the population assume the use of the words “immigration” and “emigration”. Separate calculations fall on labor. migrants.
Analysis of the balance of labor and general migration makes it possible to understand to which countries and where the flow of labor is coming from.
Such information is necessary for the correct formation of immigration policy and labor management.
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Characterizes the value mechanical growth, on average per 1000 people of the region's population per year (rate of arrivals - rate of departures)
Arrival rate
Shows how many people arrive in a given region on average for every 1000 people of the population during a calendar year
Retirement rate
Shows how many people left the region on average per 1000 people per year
- Indicators of the natural movement of the population and their social and hygienic significance.
Natural movement of the population is the change in population as a result of births and deaths.
Natural movement - This is the current change in population as a result of the interaction of demographic processes. The main accounting documents are:
1. Medical certificate of birth (F-103 / U-98)
2. Medical certificate of death (F-106 / U-98)
3. Medical certificate of perinatal death (F-106-2 / U-98)
Natural movement is characterized by indicators:
Total fertility rate
Overall mortality rate
Natural growth
Absolute indicators
1. The number of births during the period (P)
2. The number of deaths for the period (U)
3. Natural increase (decrease) of the population, which is defined as the difference between the number of births and deaths for the period: EP \u003d P - Y
Relative indicators
Among the indicators of population movement are: fertility rate, mortality rate, natural increase rate and vitality rate.
All coefficients, except for the vitality coefficient, are calculated in per thousand, that is, per 1000 people of the population, and the vitality coefficient is determined as a percentage (that is, per 100 people of the population).
Shows how many people are born during a calendar year, on average for every 1000 people of the current population
Crude mortality rate
Shows how many people die during a calendar year on average for every 1000 people of the current population and is determined by the formula:
Natural growth rate
Shows the value of natural increase (decrease) of the population during the calendar year on average per 1000 people of the current population and calculated in two ways:
By birth - by death.
Or
Vitality coefficient
Shows the relationship between fertility and mortality, characterizes the reproduction of the population. If the coefficient of vitality is less than 100%, then the population of the region dies out, if it is above 100%, then the population increases. This coefficient is determined in two ways:
By birth / By death. * one hundred
Or
- Population census, methodology. Basic data on the size and composition of the population in the Russian Federation and the Tyumen region.
The population census is collection of information about persons located on the territory of the Russian Federation on a certain date, and is carried out throughout the territory of the Russian Federation according to the unified state statistical methodology in order to obtain generalized demographic, economic and social information (Article 1 of the Federal Law of January 25, 2002 No. 8-FZ "On the All-Russian Population Census").
All-Russian population census is the main source for the formation of federal information resources concerning the size and structure of the population, its distribution over the territory of the Russian Federation in combination with socio-economic characteristics, national and linguistic composition of the population, and its educational level.
Resident population The Russian Federation amounted to 145.2 million people, of which 106.4 million people (or 73%) are urban residents, and 38.8 million people (or 27%) live in rural areas.
Russia ranks seventh in the world in terms of population after China (1285 million people), India (1025 million people), the United States (286 million people), Indonesia (215 million people), Brazil (173 million people) and Pakistan (146 million people) ).
First the proportion of women with higher education exceeded that of men. For 58.5 million people, the sources of livelihood were scholarships, old-age pensions, seniority pensions, disability, survivor benefits, benefits (excluding unemployment benefits), as well as government support. 1.2 million people received unemployment benefits.
In 2005, the birth rate in Tyumen exceeded the indicators of the previous year by 3.8 percent and amounted to 7691 people, which supposedly corresponds to the level of the 80s of the last century.
for 2009 the Tyumen region is home to 1335 thousand.
city \u200b\u200bpopulation 854
rural 470
- Fertility rate, age indicators, periods of fertility, calculation methods, social and hygienic value.
Fertility rate 1 or fertility rate 1, often also referred to as special fertility rate 1, represents the ratio of the number of births to the number of women (or men) of fertile age.
Usually the coefficient of fertility of the giving birth contingent is calculated 2, i.e. female fertility rate 2; demography pays less attention to the male fertility rate 3. In demographic analysis, fertility rates are often decomposed into two metrics: the coefficient of marital fertility is 4 and the coefficient of extramarital fertility is 5.
Age-specific fertility rates:
number of live births to women of the corresponding age x 1000 / average number of women of the corresponding age.
periods of fertility 15-19,20-24..45-49
- Birth rate of the population, accounting documentation, calculation and analysis methods.
Fertility rate is the frequency (intensity) of births of children during a given period of time (for example, a year) in a certain population group.
Fertility rates are measured using general and special rates. The crude birth rate (see Section 1 of this topic) is calculated in relation to the entire population and therefore provides a generalized assessment of this phenomenon.
More accurate results are provided by “special” coefficients calculated in relation to population groups directly involved in the birth of children.
Among them - special fertility rate, reflecting the number of children born (alive) per 1000 women of fertile age - from 15 to 49 years. It is expressed by the formula:
F / 15-49 / \u003d (N: W / 15-49 /) 1000,
where F is the special fertility rate,
W - the number of women 15-49 years old, N - the number of children born by them.
Total fertility rate- an indicator of population health, which characterizes the frequency of live births among the population.
Calculated by the formula:
Fertility\u003d (total number of live births per year) / (average annual population) X 1000
More accurate indicators of fertility are: the total fertility rate (CFR), the marital fertility rate (CFR), the age-specific fertility rate (PFR), and the total fertility rate (CFR). They are calculated using the formula:
CPC \u003d (total number of live births per year) / (average annual number of women aged 15-49 years) X 1000
PBP \u003d(total number of live births per year from married women) / (average annual number of married women aged 15-49) X 1000
PKP \u003d(total number of live births per year among women of the corresponding age) / (average annual number of women of this age) X 1000
UPC \u003dthe number of children (on average) given to one woman in her fertile age. (The number of children in the family). \u003d (number of children born to women during their fertile period) / (number of these women).
- Natural population growth, calculation methods, social and hygienic value, regional features.
Natural population growth - excess birth rate over mortality, that is, the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths over a certain period of time.
The indicators of the natural movement of the population include the indicators of marriages and divorces. Population migration rates are also calculated. Distinguish between immigration and emigration. The indicators of migration are the number of arrivals to a given settlement, those who left, and the difference between them is the balance of migration. The balance can be positive (mechanical population growth) and negative. The intensity of migration and emigration, as well as the relative change in the number, is defined as the ratio of these indicators to the average population, multiplied by 1000.
Labor resources- this is a part of the country's population that has the necessary physical development, health, education, qualifications and professional knowledge to work in the national economy. Labor force statistics study the following categories:
working-age population;
able-bodied population of working age;
labor resources.
The number of the country's labor resources is primarily determined by the size of the working-age population.
Labor resources in general are potential labor resources. In addition to them, there are also existing (functioning or used) labor resources. This is part of the general labor resources employed in the national economy. The difference between potential and current labor resources characterizes the absolute value of unused labor resources.
To characterize the age structure of the population in terms of labor resources, a number of relative indicators of structure and coordination are calculated. This is the proportion of persons under working age, working age and older than working age in the total population. The higher the proportion of people of working age, the more efficient the age structure of the population in terms of labor resources.
Able-bodied population- this is a set of people capable of work by age and state of health. Working age limits are established by labor legislation. In Belarus, the working age population is considered: for men - 16-59 years; for women - 16 - 54. The rest of the population is considered incapacitated by age. It is divided into two specific groups: the population in the pre-working age (10-15) and the population in the post-working age (men 60 and older, women 55 and older). The first of them is a source of compensation for losses and replenishment of labor resources in the future. The second is the “retirement burden” on the working population.
The working-age population is not all capable of work. Therefore, it is divided into the working-age population and the disabled working-age population. Students of working age, taking part-time studies at universities and vocational schools, persons in military service do not participate in social production. In addition, they include the part of the population employed in their household, caring for children, and other reasons).
The second group includes the population of working age with I and II disability groups and persons receiving a pension on preferential terms.
The number of labor resources is determined as of a certain point in time. When calculating a number of indicators, the average annual number of labor resources is used, which is determined in the same way as the average annual population.
On the basis of these contingents of the population, two coefficients of working capacity are determined:
the entire population;
population of working age.
Working capacity ratio of the whole population:
,
where is the working-age population of working age;
Topic 3. Calculation of the total, natural and mechanical population growth.
The total population growth is the difference between the population at the end of the billing period and at the beginning of the billing period.
H pr. \u003d H 1 - H 0
Population growth can be positive if H 1 H 0 and negative if H 1 0 .
The total population growth is subdivided into two components:
Natural population growth;
Mechanical population growth
Natural population growth is the difference between the number of births and the number of people who died during the same period or at a specific point in time, i.e. it is the difference between fertility and mortality rates.
He eats. \u003d H genus. - H mind.
Mechanical population growth is the difference between the number of people who arrived in the city and the number of people who left the city at a particular point in time.
Mechanical population growth reflects the process of population migration and can also be both positive and negative.
N fur. \u003d H approx. - N ub.
Issues related to the definition of natural and mechanical population growth, the characteristics of migration processes in a city, a constituent entity of the Russian Federation or the country as a whole are of great socio-economic importance for the integrated development of sectors of the national economy and the creation of favorable and comfortable living conditions for the population.
Table 17.
City population growth distribution
natural and mechanical.
Below are examples of solving typical tasks to determine population growth and its structure.
In the structure of employment of the city's population, the non-active population is 130 thousand people, and the amateur population of the city makes up 60% of the total urban population. To calculate for a five-year perspective, natural population growth of 4 people per 1000 inhabitants and mechanical growth were taken: the first two years - 2 thousand people, the next three years - 3 thousand people. Determine the population of the city for a five-year perspective, divide the population growth into natural and mechanical by the years of the forecast period.
Determine the total population at the end of the five-year period.
N non-samod. \u003d 130 thousand people
H samod. \u003d 60%
Based on these conditions, it is possible to draw up a consolidated structure of employment of the population.
Divide population growth into natural and mechanical by the years of the forecast period.
Calculation of natural population growth.
He eats. \u003d thousand people
The calculation is carried out for each next year.
He eats. \u003d 6.6 thousand people N fur. \u003d 13 thousand people
Determine the overall population growth of the city.
N pr. \u003d 344.6 - 325 \u003d 19.6 thousand people.
The absolute number of the population employed in the urban services sector of the city is 180 thousand people or 20% of the total population of the city. For the calculation for a five-year perspective, the following population growth is adopted:
Natural increase - 10 people per 1000 inhabitants;
Mechanical growth - 5 thousand people annually.
Determine the population size for a five-year perspective with the division of population growth into natural and mechanical by the years of the five-year plan.
Determine the population at the end of the forecast period.
H 1 \u003d thousand people
2) Divide the population growth into natural and mechanical by the years of the forecast period.
3) Determine the natural population growth.
He eats. \u003d thousand people
The calculation is carried out for each year of the forecast period.
The population of the city at the beginning of the forecast period is 300 thousand people. The average annual population growth rate is 2% and remains stable for the next ten years. For the calculation for the future, natural population growth was adopted at the rate of 5 people per 1000 inhabitants. Mechanical population growth is distributed over the years of the forecast period as follows: in the first six years - 4 thousand people, the next four years - 5 thousand people.
Calculation of the population of the city at the end of the forecast period.
H 1 \u003d 300 thousand people
Distribution of population growth into natural and mechanical over the years of the forecast period.
Tasks for self-study of the issues of this topic.
Task 3.1.
The population of the city in the base period is 360 thousand people. According to the plans for the development of the city-forming sphere, the number of employees in it at the end of the prospective period is 125 thousand people or 30% of the total population of the city. According to statistical data, the natural population growth per 1000 inhabitants is 4 people. Mechanical population growth is taken in the second and third years for 2 thousand people, the fourth and fifth - for 3 thousand people, from the sixth to the ninth year inclusive of 5 thousand people, the tenth - six thousand people.
Determine the predicted population of the city and divide the population growth into natural and mechanical by the years of the forecast period.
Task 3.2.
The employable population of the city is 260 thousand people, the non-active population is 40% of the total urban population. For the calculation for the future (10 years), natural population growth was taken at the level of the previously formed 5 people per 1000 inhabitants. The mechanical population growth is accepted: from the first to the fifth year inclusive - 3 thousand people, from the sixth to the tenth year - 5 thousand people.
Determine the population of the city at the end of the forecast period, dividing by years of population growth into natural and mechanical.
Task 3.3.
The absolute number of people employed in the urban services sector of the city is 180 thousand people, or 20% of the total population of the city. For the calculation for a five-year perspective, the following population growth is adopted:
Natural increase - 5 people per 1000 inhabitants;
Mechanical growth in the first three years - 1.5 thousand people, the next two years - 3 thousand people.
Determine the population growth of the city at the end of the fifth year, dividing it into natural and mechanical by years of the forecast period.
Task 3.4.
In the city-forming sphere of the city, 150 thousand people are employed, and in the city-serving sphere - 80 thousand people. The non-self-employed part of the population makes up 45% of the total population of the city. For the calculation for a five-year perspective, the following population growth is adopted: natural - 5 people per 1000 inhabitants and mechanical - 2 thousand people annually. Determine the planned population of the city at the end of the five-year plan, dividing it into natural and mechanical growth.
Task 3.5.
The absolute number of city-forming personnel is 150 thousand people. In the total number of the urban population, the share of urban service personnel and the non-active part of the population is 65%. For the calculation for a five-year perspective, the following population growth was adopted: natural - 3 people per 1000 inhabitants and mechanical growth - 6 thousand people annually.
Determine the population growth at the end of the five-year plan and distribute it to natural and mechanical weather of the forecast period.
Task 3.6.
The absolute number of people employed in the urban services sector of the city is 210 thousand people or 25% of the total population of the city. To calculate for a five-year perspective, the following population growth was adopted: natural - 8 people per 1000 inhabitants, mechanical - 3.6 thousand people annually.
Determine the population size for a five-year perspective and divide the population growth into natural and mechanical by the years of the forecast period.
Task 3.7.
The non-self-employed population of the city includes 230 thousand people, and the self-employed population of the city makes up 60% of the total population. For a ten-year perspective, natural population growth was adopted - 5 people per 1000 inhabitants and mechanical population growth (for the first five years - 4 thousand people and for the next 5 years - 8 thousand people).
Determine the population size of the city for a ten-year perspective with the division of population growth by years into natural and mechanical.
Task 3.8.
The amateur population of the city is 380 thousand people. The unemployed population is 40% of the total population of the city. To calculate for the future, natural population growth of 6 people per 1000 inhabitants and mechanical growth were adopted (the first five years - 4.5 thousand people each and the next five years - 7 thousand people each).
Determine the population growth of the city at the end of the tenth year, broken down into natural and mechanical.
Task 3.9.
270 thousand people are employed in the city-forming sphere of the city, and 120 thousand people are employed in the city-serving sphere. the non-active part of the city's population makes up 40% of the total population of the city.
To calculate for a ten-year perspective, the following population growth was adopted: natural - 4 people per 1000 inhabitants and mechanical - in the first five years, 2 thousand people, in the second five years - 4 thousand people.
Determine the population growth of the city at the end of the tenth year, dividing it into natural and mechanical.
Task 3.10.
The population of the city in the base period is 420 thousand people. According to the data on the development of the branches of the city-forming sphere, the number of workers in them at the end of the forecast period will be 150 thousand, or 30% of the total population of the city. According to statistical data, the natural population growth per 1000 inhabitants is 4 people. The mechanical population growth over the years is distributed as follows: the second and third years - 1.5 thousand, the fourth and fifth - 3 thousand people each, from the sixth to the ninth inclusive - 4.7 thousand people and the tenth year - 2.3 thousand people.
Determine the growth of the city's population by years of the forecast period.