Federal budget. Analysis of revenues and expenditures of the budget of the Russian Federation
On December 20, Vladimir Putin signed the main financial document for the country for the next year. According to him, the well-being of Russians will not improve much in the near future, but it may worsen even more in 2018-20. Since, if we consider the budget of Russia for 2017 in figures, then it can be described exclusively as “consuming”. Unfortunately, it does not provide for any real anti-crisis program or import substitution plan. On the other hand, there are several interesting points that can tell what the future, according to the government's forecasts, awaits the citizens of the Russian Federation.
What is the budget in figures adopted by the deputies for Russia in 2017
The main financial document of the country indicates that the state intends to spend about 16.241 trillion next year with revenues of 13.488 trillion rubles. What do these numbers mean for ordinary Russians?
Three hard years
Cost structure in dollars
If we consider the expenses projected for 2017, then, compared to last year, their total size in the federal budget has not changed much. By and large, that 16.241, that 16.098 trillion rubles the difference is not very big. At the current exchange rate (60.8528 rubles / dollar), about 250 billion in dollars. For comparison: expenditures in the US budget are 16 times more, and in the budget of Belarus 30 times less.
However, if we look not at the total volumes, but at the structure of costs, we can clearly see a tendency towards an increase in the infusion of money into the “siloviki” and the army with a reduction in spending on the social, scientific, medical and educational spheres. In particular, compared to last year:
- medical expenses will decrease by 10%;
- utility costs will increase by 40%;
- the pension fund will receive less than 175 billion rubles;
- the educational sphere will be missing about 8%.
At the same time, the defense budget will be increased by 72 billion rubles, not counting the planned increase in the salaries of a significant part of the "siloviki".
Expenditure part:
What does such a budget adjustment mean for the average citizen? It's simple:
- Rising military spending speaks of preparation for military conflicts.
- The increase in spending on the Interior Ministry and special services indicates preparations for internal unrest.
- A decrease in spending on social, educational and medical spheres with a large amount of reserves shows that the inflow of money is decreasing and this is a long-term trend.
Sources of income
Regarding the revenues included in the federal budget, their size also differs little from last year - 13.44 trillion in 2017 to 13.738 trillion rubles in 2016. That's about $ 225 billion.
Budget revenues:
Year | 2015 | 2016 |
Total income | 13659 | 13369 |
Oil and gas | 5863 | 4778 |
of them | ||
Severance tax | 3160 | 2819 |
export duties | 2703 | 1959 |
Not oil and gas | 7797 | 8591 |
of them | ||
corporate income tax | 491 | 465 |
VAT on goods sold in the territory of the Russian Federation | 2448 | 2637 |
VAT on goods imported into the territory of the Russian Federation | 1785 | 1910 |
excise taxes on goods produced on the territory of the Russian Federation | 528 | 623 |
excise taxes on goods imported into the territory of the Russian Federation | 54 | 57 |
import duties | 560 | 542 |
As can be seen from the table, the government's forecasted revenues from oil next year will decrease, but this is planned to be covered by an increase in various taxes, duties, excise taxes and duties.
Real budget deficit
Even with regard to income and expenses, one nuance should be clarified - the correct understanding of the size of the deficit. The point is that representatives of the authorities in the news, commenting on the federal budget, say: "Next year, the budget deficit of the Russian Federation will be at the level of (number) percent of GDP." What's wrong here?
GDP is the gross domestic product of the entire economy of the state, while the federal budget of Russia is the costs and expenses of all government agencies, i.e. only a small part of the country's economy. In other words, what the authorities say when comparing the budget deficit with the GDP is like comparing the finances of an individual teacher to the income of a kindergarten. The number will come out less, but it does not give a real understanding of the level of costs and expenses of the employee.
In reality, if you look at the Russian budget for 2017 in figures, it turns out that its deficit is 20%. Simply put, the state spends 20% more than it earns!
What's interesting about the 2017 federal budget?
As already noted, there are several interesting points in the federal budget of the Russian Federation for the next year that can tell about what awaits Russians in the future. The most important ones are as follows.
Hiding military spending
According to official information, the state plans to cut military spending in 2017 - from 3.89 to 2.84 trillion rubles. At the same time, 2.771 trillion rubles of them are secret articles, the intended use of which practically no one controls. However, if we consider the budget expenditures that relate to the military, but are not spelled out in the article on defense, then we can find the same amount of funds allocated for the army.
Experts calculated that the 2017 budget will spend up to 4.5 trillion rubles on military spending. At the same time, a significant part of them, like the official expenditures for the army, are classified.
What are these funds spent on? Ideally, for the army and the provision of military personnel with everything they need, including housing and transport. But in reality, everything is a little different. For example, in 2016, the government allocated an additional 800 billion "secret" rubles to pay off loans that the army took in 2010 for rearmament. How the money taken on credit was spent can be found in the case of Evgenia Vasilyeva.
Who will be responsible for the budget adjustment?
The next curious fact that can be noted looking at the Russian budget for 2017 in figures is that the 20% deficit is planned to be covered by using money from the reserve fund and the national welfare fund. Almost everything will be taken from the first - 50 billion dollars, from the second the missing part. At the same time, the failure will also be reduced due to the privatization of state property and budget adjustments:
- liquidation of part of long-term investment projects;
- mineralization of the indexing of civil servants' salaries;
- reduction of subsidies by region.
Forecast for the next year on key indicators for the Russian economy laid down in the document
- The average price per barrel of oil is $ 40.
- The average annual dollar exchange rate is 67 rubles.
- The projected GDP is $ 1.4 trillion (86.8 trillion rubles).
- The reserve fund in 2018 will be equal to 0.
- The size of the maternity is 453 thousand rubles.
In addition, adjusting the budget for next year will reduce the allocation to programs:
- "Economic development and innovative economy" - a decrease by 22.8%;
- "Promotion of employment of the population" - a decrease by 29.4%;
- "Healthcare Development" - a decrease of 25%.
Summary
Summing up, we can say that the Russian budget for 2017 in figures indicates the continuation of the economic crisis. At the same time, the Government does not have a plan to withdraw from it. They just want to wait it out, covering the lack of money with privatization and spending the reserve funds.
Battle for Budget 2017 - Completed
The government's point of view is that this fact should not discourage Russians. On the contrary, sanctions should be viewed as a positive phenomenon, because long-term economic isolation will help develop its own production and improve technological advances, which, ultimately, will provide the country with an unprecedented economic recovery. By the way, it is already forecasted in the new federal budget.
The draft state budget for 2017-2019 was published in October
The draft document was published by the employees of the Ministry of Finance of Russia on 10/12/2016, and it is he who will determine the structure of state revenues and expenditures for the next three years. The new budget is positioned as adapted to the new realities, which include low, shrinking monetary reserves and "Western constraints" on economic growth. Let's take a closer look at what was included in the new budget of Russia in order to find out government priorities.
Innovations in the State Budget of Russia
To date, the Russian budget has not yet passed the stage of final approval. But the main innovations and figures that characterize this bill can already be analyzed. Among the main innovations, the following points can be noted:
- the government intends to return to the old practice of adopting a single budget for a three-year period (in 2016, the Russian economy was based on a one-year financial document). According to the opinion voiced by representatives of the Ministry of Finance, this step will ensure consistency and predictability in leveling the accumulated budget imbalances;
- a distinctive feature of the new document was the change in the structure of sources of financing the budget deficit. If in the current year 2/3 of the deficit was covered by the funds taken from the Reserve Fund, then in the next three years the representatives of the Ministry of Finance propose to use less sovereign funds and more - borrowed funds attracted in the domestic market.
The revenue side of the budget of the Russian Federation in 2017
It should be noted that the revenue side in the 2017 budget is fixed at 13.44 trillion rubles and differs slightly from last year's figure. Many economists say that if we also take into account, then in real terms, this part of the budget will continue the downward trend. In 2019, representatives of the Ministry of Finance predict an increase in revenues to 14.8 trillion rubles, which is a nominal historical maximum for the Russian economy.
Experts note that the planned growth is explained by the weakened positions of the ruble - the 2019 budget includes a quotation of 71.1 rubles per 1 US dollar. Oil quotes included in the RF budget are forecasted at $ 40 / bbl. In addition, it should be noted that in relation to the level of GDP, the revenue side will tend to decline - in 2019 this share will be 15%.
![](https://i0.wp.com/yaa2017.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/dohody-v-byudzhete-rossii-2017.jpg)
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov called the main goal of the government to ensure income without additional tax reform and. It is quite possible that the tax sector will undergo reforms in favor of easing the fiscal burden on business - first of all, this may affect taxes levied on entrepreneurs. Other experts explain the government's optimism for very different reasons.
For example, Lyudmila Pronina, who holds the post of professor at the Department of Economics and Finance of the Public Sector, RANEPA, says that the Ministry of Finance's forecast growth of the revenue side is quite realistic. But she explains the likelihood of its execution by income from taxation, which the Ministry of Finance has pledged in the amount of 300 billion rubles for 2017, and 200 billion each in 2018 and 2019. The second reason she cites is a possible increase.
The expenditure side of the budget of Russia
Funding for expense items was proposed in the amount of RUB 16.181 trillion in 2017. It is worth saying that for the next two years this indicator was announced in a slightly smaller amount. So, in 2018, expenses will amount to 15.978 trillion, and in 2019 - 15.964 trillion rubles. According to Anton Siluanov, cutting the expenditure side of the budget is the only way to ensure fiscal consolidation.
Let us recall that the expenses in the RF budget are divided into two parts: open and closed. The first of them in 2017 is planned in the amount of 13.31 trillion rubles, i.e. 18% of all expenses will be classified. This is less than in 2016, when the level of hidden costs exceeded 22%. Moreover, the 2016 budget was being adjusted in this aspect just before our eyes. Representatives of the Ministry of Finance explained this with certain plans that provide for early settlement of credit obligations of defense enterprises.
![](https://i2.wp.com/yaa2017.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/rashody-v-byudzhete-rossii-2017.jpg)
If we consider the functional directions of expenses item by item, then the following conclusions can be drawn:
- it is planned to spend 5.08 trillion rubles for the needs of social policy in 2017, 4.962 in 2018 and 5.054 in 2019. In this case, the government demonstrates a tendency to reduce, explaining its actions by the need to save money;
- the national economy will receive allocations in the amount of 2.3 trillion rubles in 2017. In 2018, 2.246 trillion rubles will be allocated to it, and in 2019 - 2.054 trillion rubles, that is, over the next three years, financing of the national economy will decrease from 14.2% of all expenses to 12.9%. It is rather strange that with the policy of cutting costs for this item, government financiers predict the country will soon. It is not entirely clear what reasons this growth can provoke - under the conditions of sanctions and an investment blockade, foreign investment cannot be counted on, and local entrepreneurs cannot afford to take bank loans due to exorbitant interest rates;
- the needs of national defense will be financed in the amount of 950 billion rubles. The indicated figure is an open part of the budgetary expenditures for this item. Taking into account the closed items that make up the gross part of defense spending, the industry will receive 2.84 trillion rubles in appropriations. In 2018, the allocation will be 2.72 trillion, and in 2019 - 2.856 trillion. Over three years, funding will increase from 17.6% to 17.9% of the entire expenditure side of the budget, which indicates a high degree of "militarization" of this document. Experts emphasize that the only salvation for the country's budget is structural reforms related to production and cuts in military spending. Nevertheless, this recommendation of experts has been ignored by the government for many years;
- spending on national security is growing and. The law enforcement agencies will receive 1.968 trillion rubles in 2017, 1.995 in 2018 and 2.007 in 2019. The share of these expenses in the budget, thus, will increase from 12.2 to 12.6%;
- costs, against this background, do not look so significant. The Ministry of Education can only count on 568 billion for 2017. In the next two years, this figure will increase slightly and leave 589 and 586 billion, respectively;
- The health sector also does not cause much concern for the government: in 2017, it is planned to allocate 377 billion rubles for it, and in 2018 and 2019 - 394 and 369 billion rubles, respectively.
![](https://i1.wp.com/yaa2017.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/byudzhet-rossiyskoy-federatsii-2017.jpg)
Analysis of hidden costs led to the following conclusions:
- government spending on the so-called "other issues" will increase next year to 10% of the entire expenditure side of the budget and will amount to 1.62 trillion rubles, which exceeds the corresponding figure in 2016;
- a subsection entitled “other issues” appears with enviable regularity in a dozen areas, of which it is worth noting 500 billion rubles planned for “separate subsidies” for companies and organizations and “separate interbudgetary transfers” allocated for regional budgets;
- 150 "secret" billion rubles will be allocated under the article "National Security and Law Enforcement Agencies";
- items including “other issues” and “hidden costs” together account for about 24% of the entire expenditure side of the Russian budget.
About the budget deficit
The budget for the next three years is planned to be in deficit. In 2017, this figure will amount to 2.74 trillion rubles (3.2% of GDP). Moreover, the government has not yet adopted the document, but is already considering possible amendments to this figure - recently, the Ministry of Finance proposed to increase the budget deficit to 3.03 trillion rubles. According to some economists' forecasts, this figure may reach 3.26 trillion, coming close to the mark of 3.9% of GDP.
This value will be the largest gap in the past six years. Government experts unanimously declare that the budget deficit is quite expected and the Western sanctions are to blame, but they are confident that all problems can be overcome by finding additional sources of income. First of all, financiers are hoping for some new military contracts that can settle the budget deficit. At the same time, it is worth citing the words expressed on this occasion by Vladimir Putin.
The president mentioned that it may be too early to adopt a three-year budget in the current economic environment, but he maintains the healthy optimism of public financiers. At the same time, if we compare income and expenses, it becomes clear that in comparison with the 2016 budget, the income planned for 2019 should increase by almost 1.4 trillion rubles, and expenditure should decrease by 670 billion in national currency.
![](https://i2.wp.com/yaa2017.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/defitsit-byudzheta-rossii-2017.jpeg)
It is also worth considering the high expenditure base of the current year. At the finish line, which has already reached the budget for 2016, the Ministry of Finance decided to increase expenditure items from 16.1 trillion rubles to 16.4 trillion. If we also take into account the fact that changes are expected in the consolidated budget list, which will not be carried out through legislative amendments, then the total may reach an amount of 16.63 trillion rubles.
Financiers are more optimistic about the future, assuming that already in 2018 the country may reach a deficit indicator equal to 2.2% of GDP, and by the end of 2019 it will reduce it to 1.2%. At the same time, experts from the Fitch analytical agency say that Russia has not yet overcome its dependence on raw materials, and unstable oil quotes, which so far have a characteristic downward trend, may hurt budget replenishment.
State debt of the Russian Federation
As already mentioned, public financiers are planning to increase the level of borrowing in order to cover the budget deficit. Presumably, these will mainly be domestic loans, which will amount to:
- 1.88 trillion rubles in 2017, which is two times higher than borrowings in 2016;
- in 2018, domestic government bonds will have to give another 1.6 trillion rubles;
- in 2019 - 1.7 trillion in national currency.
In addition, it is worth considering that in 2017 the maturity of bonds, the total value of which is 829 billion rubles, will be suitable. Perhaps the amount of federal loan bonds placed will amount to 1.9 trillion rubles. At the same time, Anton Siluanov noted that it is necessary to receive loans from domestic investors with a degree of caution so that they do not demand short-term bonds at high rates from the government.
It should be noted that the change in the sources of financing the deficit is not accidental. In 2017, they plan to take 1.15 trillion from the Reserve Fund, which means that this source will be completely exhausted. Rumor has it that, if necessary, the government will turn to money from the National Welfare Fund. According to the plans of the Ministry of Finance, this source will have to provide 660 billion rubles. in 2017 and 1.14 trillion. - in 2018. As for the possible replenishment of these funds, it is not planned until 02/01/2020.
![](https://i1.wp.com/yaa2017.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/gosudarstvenniy-dolg-rossii-2018.jpg)
The bar for borrowing in foreign markets is dropping sharply. It is planned to attract no more than $ 7 billion from external sources in 2017, and in the next two - another $ 3 billion, which corresponds to the level of the pre-crisis years. Commenting on this fact, Anton Siluanov noted that the country could have spent a year without external borrowing, but the government should support the level of liquidity of its Eurobonds.
In 2017, the country's main financial institution will simply refinance the expiring debts. According to the plan, in 2017 Russia will have to repurchase securities for 7.3 billion USD. Let's note right away: many experts believe that Russia's chief financier is disingenuous. The country will refuse external loans, not because it does not need them, but because of the ongoing sanctions, which concern, among other things, the sphere of lending.
The volume of the total debt of the Russian Federation by the beginning of 2020 will increase, reaching 16.6 trillion. R. (16.8% of GDP), which exceeds the level of 2016 by 1.8%. Over the next three years, the total public debt will remain at a safe level. Although some economists are intimidated by the comparison of the external public debt, which is estimated at 55 billion US dollars, the amount of domestic debt (almost 9 billion rubles) and the amount of cash reserves, estimated at 5.5 billion rubles.
The budget issue and Chechnya
The planned budget, aimed at saving money, has already caused discontent in some regions. Recall that after the project was published, Ramzan Kadyrov, who holds the post of the head of this republic, expressed his dissatisfaction with the reduction in funding for Chechnya through the social network Instagram. The Kremlin reacted to this statement with the help of Dmitry Peskov, who is the press secretary of the Russian president.
In his statement, Peskov noted that the country's economy is characterized by difficulties that are related not only to the federation as a whole, but also to its individual regions. The presidential speaker emphasized that the head of the country foresaw the emergence of controversial issues, but the debate should be moved to the lower house of the Duma. The government cannot be guided by the dissatisfaction of individual federal subjects - it takes into account the interests of the whole country, despite criticism from the regions.
![](https://i2.wp.com/yaa2017.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/byudzhet-chechni-2017.jpg)
Not so long ago, Kadyrov said that if in previous periods the authorities of the republic of Chechnya took into account the policy of total budget savings, today he is forced to criticize the budget project. Kadyrov recalled that the republic has not received funds for a long time within the framework of the federal targeted program concerning the restoration of the economic and social sphere of Chechnya. Cuts in the Chechen budget will prevent the republican economy from developing and will negatively affect social obligations.
Nevertheless, one cannot ignore the fact that during the years of Ramzan Kadyrov's leadership, Chechnya received subsidies and subsidies from the federal budget in the amount of 540 billion rubles, closing the top three of Russian subsidized leaders (the first two places are occupied by Dagestan and Yakutia). The budget of Chechnya is already 80-87% formed at the expense of deductions from the all-Russian budget. Moreover, according to Natalya Zubarevich, director of the regional program of the Independent Institute for Social Policy, Grozny distributes a significant part of the funds received in a completely non-transparent way.
However, with a very substantial amount of subsidies, the republic still manages to occupy the 4th place among the subjects of the Russian Federation in terms of the unemployment rate. Moreover, 53% of the total unemployed population are men of working age. At the same time, the level of monetary incomes of the population of the republic is steadily increasing, but most of them are modestly recorded under the item not “salary”, but “other income”.
Conclusions and forecasts
In general, the budget can be safely called conservative. At least, it does not provide for any drastic measures to resolve the issue, so, in fact, Russia will continue to eat up the remaining reserves. State financiers say that the budget for 2017-2019 will still be adjusted, and this will have to be done annually. Experts do not predict exacerbation of external risks for the country's economy, but they speak of the possibility of exacerbation of internal risks.
![](https://i0.wp.com/yaa2017.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/vozmozhnye-rashody-v-byudzhete-rossii-2017.jpg)
The already mentioned oil prices are to blame. In addition, Russia is facing presidential elections, and this, according to the Ministry of Finance, makes it impossible to plan expenses in advance. Although it is a little unclear why the expenses for the elections cannot be calculated and included in the future budget in advance. Nevertheless, Russians are assured that everything will be fine: inflation expectations will drop by almost 3 times with GDP growth of 2.4% by the end of 2018. However, even these statements cause a certain amount of skepticism among economists.
The difficult economic situation in Russia makes us think in advance about what kind of life awaits us, ordinary citizens, in the future. The future of ordinary people directly depends on what policies the powers that be are going to adhere to in the coming period. Today we will find out what the budget of Russia will be in 2017.
Features of the federal budget of the Russian Federation for 2017
As you know, the budget of the Russian Federation is being developed immediately for 3 years in advance, therefore we can already talk about what the budget indicators of Russia will be in 2017-2019. However, the figures in this budget, over time, under the influence of various factors and circumstances, can be changed, including the change in various budget indicators can be very significantly influenced by world politics and the economy.
It should be noted that federal budget for 2017-2019., adopted by the State Duma - December 9, 2016. and signed by the President of the Russian Federation - December 20. A country's budget is calculated from many factors. It is far from the last influence on it is exerted by the dollar exchange rate, the general political situation in the external arena, etc. In addition, the imposed sanctions and the response measures to them have a great influence on the country's economy. The adopted Federal Budget Law will enter into force on January 1, 2017.
2017 Russian budget in figures
Income- amount to 13488 billion rubles.
Expenses- 16241 billion rubles.
Budget deficit- 2753 billion rubles. It is planned to reduce the budget deficit for the next 3 years to 1.1 billion rubles. Analysts expect that in 2017 the level of the budget deficit will decrease by 15%. However, everyone unanimously asserts that this reduction can occur only by reducing government spending, including for the needs of the population.
Table of revenues and expenditures of the budget of the Russian Federation for 2017
- BALANCED BUDGET
- FEDERAL BUDGET
- FEDERAL BUDGET INCOME
- FEDERAL BUDGET EXPENSES
The task of ensuring a balanced budget is the most important for the state in the implementation of economic policy. In this article, revenues and expenditures of the federal budget for the period 2013-2017 are subject to consideration and analysis.
- The role of federal taxes in the tax system of the Russian Federation
- Using public-private partnership mechanisms to develop public infrastructure
- Ways to Strengthen the Revenue Part of the Federal Budget of the Russian Federation
The balance of revenues and expenditures of the federal budget has a significant impact on the stability of the country as a whole. At the same time, the question of the ratio of the revenue and expenditure side of the budget is especially relevant today. Considering the dynamics of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation for 2016, one can notice a gradual decrease in the share of federal budget revenues in relation to GDP - from 20.9% in 2013 to 17.5% in 2016, as well as a reduction in the total volume of federal budget expenditures to 20 , 5% relative to GDP.
Table 1. Key indicators of the federal budget for 2013-2017, billion rubles.
According to the draft law on the federal budget for 2017, budget revenues amounted to 14,720.3 billion rubles, and in 2016 - 13,738.5 billion rubles, i.e. the excess of revenues is clearly expressed. Is it good or bad?
According to the Ministry of Finance, this jump in budget revenues throughout history is considered a maximum point, but this growth can be justified by the level of inflation and the weak ruble included in the budget. It should also be noted that oil is a profitable source of the budget, because according to the projection for the next 2 years, the rate per barrel will be about $ 40.
An increase in revenues leads, first of all, to an imbalance in the budget, so the only way to strengthen the budget is to reduce federal spending. To improve this situation, the Ministry of Finance proposes to change the composition of the use of sovereign funds and use more borrowed funds (about 1005 billion rubles), which is almost twice as much as borrowed in 2016.
It is planned to use 1150 billion rubles to finance the budget deficit. from the Reserve Fund, as a result of which these funds will be spent. In this situation, it is necessary to use the National Welfare Fund, from which the Ministry of Finance wants to spend 660 billion rubles. during 2017 to cover the deficit. There are no plans to replenish sovereign wealth funds until 2020.
Consider the structure of federal budget revenues for 2013-2017.
Table 2. Federal budget revenues for 2013-2017, billion rubles.
Indicators / Years |
2017 in% to 2013 |
|||||
Oil and gas revenues |
||||||
Income tax |
||||||
Customs duties |
||||||
Dividends on shares owned by the Russian Federation |
||||||
Other income |
According to the data in the table, one can see that income growth has been observed over the period under review. Consider federal budget revenues in terms of tax and non-tax revenues. For a fairly long period of time, tax revenues make up the majority of all federal budget revenues. So, for the period 2013-2017. their volume is more than 50%, while this share has significantly increased over the period under review by 10.6 percentage points. This fact indicates that the state, solving its socio-economic problems, has decided to replenish the financial base through tax revenues, including mineral extraction tax, income tax, excise taxes, VAT, etc. Tax revenues also play a significant role in the formation of the federal budget, despite the fact that for 2013–2017. their share decreased by almost 11.5%. This decrease can be explained by the reduction in revenues from foreign economic activity. This trend is not accidental, given the relatively restrained policy of Russia in the world market, since at the moment the state seeks to develop the domestic market.
Let us consider the structure of federal budget expenditures for the period under study.
Table 3. Federal budget expenditures for 2013-2017, billion rubles.
Analyzing the table, you can see that in 2017, incomes were higher than in previous ones, i.e. the tendency of growth of the expenditure side of the budget is visible. This fact can be substantiated by the fact that in the context of the functional areas of budget expenditures, it is planned to spend most of all on social policy - 5080 billion rubles. For the section "National Economy", the allocations amount to almost 2,300 billion rubles. "National Defense" will require about 2840 billion rubles in the open part of the budget. This is 27% less than was allocated for national defense in 2016. Despite a slight increase in the total share of spending on the social block, the 2017 budget cannot be called “social” in terms of concern for the development of the social sphere. The main changes in the part of pensions came down to a reduction in the scale of the planned indexation and the next freeze of the funded part.
Thus, it can be concluded that the budget imbalance still exists, and according to the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, by 2020 the deficit should decrease to 1.2%. In part of the population, the state needs to improve policy in the field of health care and education and pay more attention to the social aspects of the state's development.
Bibliography
- State and Municipal Administration: Textbook / Ed. N.I. Zakharova [Text]. - M .: INFRA - M, 2015 .-- 278 p.
- Romanovsky M.V., Vrublevskaya O.V. The budgetary system of the Russian Federation: A textbook for university students enrolled in economic specialties. 4th ed., - SPb .: Peter, 2015 .-- 576 p.
- Siraeva R.R. Control over budget execution as an integral part of the budgetary process / R.R. Siraeva, G.F. Garifullina // Socio-economic development of modern society in the context of modernization: materials of the International Scientific and Practical Conference. - Saratov, 2016 .-- S. 158-159.
- Official website of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation / Monthly information on the execution of the federal budget (data from January 1, 2011) [Electronic resource]: http://minfin.ru/ru/
On Friday, December 9, the State Duma adopted in the third final reading the draft federal budget for 2017 and for the planning period 2018-2019. State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin called it "optimal, but tough." 99 out of 414 MPs voted against the adoption of the state budget. What is the controversial nature of the document and what are its main parameters, DW found out.
The deficit will persist. The reserve fund will be depleted
According to the adopted law, budget revenues in 2017 will amount to 13.5 trillion rubles, expenses - 16.2 trillion rubles. The deficit is thus projected at $ 2.8 trillion. It is supposed to be financed from the Reserve Fund, which is expected to be exhausted next year, as well as from the National Welfare Fund - 4.2 trillion rubles will remain in it by the end of 2017.
GDP is expected to grow: from 0.6% in 2017 to 1.7% in 2018 and 2.1% in 2019. Inflation is projected at 4% over the next three years. The exchange rate of the dollar against the ruble, on which it is proposed to rely, will be 67.5 rubles per dollar in 2017 and then will rise to 68.7 in 2018 and 71.1 rubles in 2019. The deputies have budgeted the oil price at $ 40 per barrel. At the same time, the IMF gives a forecast of $ 50.6 per barrel for 2017 with subsequent growth, and the World Bank - $ 55.2.
Nevertheless, experts assessed positively the conservative approach of the legislators. As noted in the conclusion of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy and RANEPA on the draft budget, "given the existing risks and uncertainties, a conservative approach to the formation of the federal budget revenues seems justified."
More than a third of all expenses- on defense and secretarticles
The budget assumes that defense and secret spending (mainly for the section "National Defense", as well as the sections "National Economy", "Healthcare", subsections "Preschool Education", "Periodicals" and others) will be reduced next year more than 20%. Military spending - up to 2.836 trillion, secret - up to 2.771 trillion rubles. Together, the costs of these items are more than 15 times higher than those for health care and almost 10 times higher than those for education.
As stated in the conclusion of the Gaidar Institute and RANEPA, "among countries not at war, Russia is one of the record holders in terms of defense spending." So, according to experts, if the share of defense spending in the Russian budget is almost a quarter of all spending, then in the United States, which has a colossal military budget, this share is only 15%, and in Germany - 11%.
The experts also criticize the excessive number of classified articles that create budget opacity. "The share of closed expenditures is more than an order of magnitude higher than similar indicators of public finances in developed countries," the authors of the conclusion note. According to them, this contradicts the law "On State Secrets", which allows secrecy only for budget expenditures in the field of intelligence, operational-search activities, as well as in the field of countering terrorism.
For education andhealth carespend all5,8% all expenses
Expenditures on education next year will grow by 2% - up to 568.5 billion rubles. At the same time, spending on the item "youth policy" will increase the most - by 29.5% - and will amount to 2.3 billion. cut by 38.3% - to 17.7 billion. The most expensive item is higher education. On it, expenses will increase by 3.2% - up to 497.3 billion.
Health care will receive from the federal treasury in 2017 almost a quarter less funds than this year - only 364 billion rubles. According to experts from the Gaidar Institute and RANEPA, "the relative amount of government spending on health care in Russia is significantly lower than in developed countries and does not correspond to the real level of economic development of the country."
Social spending is on the rise, poverty is not declining
More than 5 trillion rubles will be allocated for social policy in 2017 (28.2% more than in 2016). At the same time, experts point out that a sharp increase in allocations in Russia does not lead to a decrease in the level of poverty in the country. From 2008 to 2015, the number of the poor was 13.4% of the total population, despite the fact that over the years, spending on social services increased by more than 200%.
Context
Arseniy Mammadov, the head of the budget policy laboratory at the Gaidar Institute, explained to DW that the problem is that the payments are not sufficiently individualized: “There are still quite a few categorical benefits, and the targeted means test is not being carried out enough. however, not all of them really need it. "
Production costs are reduced, no development
One of the key complaints expressed by experts regarding the adopted budget is that, in the words of the deputy Alexei Zhuravlev, it is a "budget for patience", not development. One of the reasons is the reduction of the so-called productive costs at a faster pace than unproductive ones.
The first, according to Arseniy Mammadov, include expenses that lead to an acceleration of economic growth. This is mainly the cost of human resources (health care, education, etc.), as well as infrastructure. The rest are unproductive: for public administration, defense, etc.
By the way, spending on infrastructure in the coming years will be reduced, and especially significantly - on transport. In nominal terms, the year-on-year decline in 2017, 2018 and 2019 will be 14%, 12% and 30%, respectively. According to analysts, this puts many infrastructure projects at risk.
Vasily Koltashov, head of the Center for Economic Research at the Institute of Globalization and Social Movements (IGSO), told DW that, in his opinion, the Russian authorities would in principle not be able to solve economic problems and move to growth with the help of widespread cost cuts. According to him, it is necessary to radically change the economic vector towards increasing costs and stimulating consumer demand and industrial production due to this.
See also "How Russia has accumulated and spent its Reserve Fund":