The reserve fund is exhausted: what it means for residents of the Russian Federation. Russia Narla Last Trillion & NBSP Reserve Fund has been exhausted
The reserve fund of Russia, the funds in which were accumulated at the expense of oil and gas revenues, until the end of the year will be practically spent. Another 660 billion rubles will be seized from the funds of the National Welfare Fund (FNB). This was announced on Tuesday head of the Ministry of Finance Anton Siluanov. According to the minister, a total of about 1 trillion rubles will be seized from the Fund. As of December 1, 2017, it remained 992 billion rubles.
To spend the funds of the reserve fund, began in February 2015 to close the hole in the federal budget, then its size declined almost 6 times, or 4.9 trillion rubles. Funds of the FNB began to spend in September of this year to cover the budget deficit of the Pension Fund - approximately 160 billion rubles per month. By the beginning of December, 490 billion rubles left the foundation.
From next year, the National Welfare Fund will be merged with the reserve fund. The corresponding decree was signed President Vladimir PutinJuly 31 of this year. It will be replenished due to the currency that the Ministry of Finance buys on the stock exchange, using budget revenues from oil prices above $ 40 per barrel.
Based on the adopted budget for 2018, 1.113 trillion rubles are planned from the Joint Fund. According to the forecasts of the Ministry of Finance, the size of the FNB as of January 1, 2018 will amount to 3.7 trillion rubles.
AiF.Ru asked W. analytics of FG "Kalita Finance", expert on financial markets Dmitry GolubovskyWhat will turn out the exhaustion of the reserve fund.
"There are still enough currency, because there are still funds from the National Welfare Fund. Now the Ministry of Finance is engaged in shifting money from the account to the account. This is due to the features of budget accounting. As for the reserve fund, its funds go to the repayment of the budget deficit, which was formed as a result of the fact that the government spends more than earns in the conditions of falling oil revenues. The magnitude of this fund depends on the value of Brent oil in rubles. If it is cheaper than 3,600-3700 rubles, then the government needs to take from somewhere money and plugging the hole. And since most of this year, the oil was cheaper than this level, we had to adhere to the foreign exchange reserves.
So what does the exhaustion of reserve funds mean? In the government, they stated that by the end of this year funds exhausted in the reserve fund, next year, if the cost of oil falls, the funds of the FNB will also be completed. If prices remain stable, at the current level, nothing happens. This situation speaks only about one thing - that you need to start living by means, and the cost of oil should not fall below 3800. If it is at the time of the exhaustion of these funds, it will be lower, it will be a one-time devaluation of the ruble. As soon as the funds of the funds are completed, the ruble exchange rate will begin to be strictly correlated by the price of oil. Now we have a ruble exchange rate from the price of oil, one can observe a very low dependence. The course is now determined by the purely dynamics of interest rates, taking into account the demand for the bonds of the federal loan. But when the reserve money does not remain, then the oil will start to steer. In fact, everything will be determined by what is happening on the commodity market. "
In early May, the Ministry of Economic Development in his forecast made that by the end of 2019 the entire state cube is a reserve fund and national welfare fund - can be exhausted. In the Ministry of Finance that the reserve fund will end already in 2017. "Lenta.ru" found out how Russia will be able to survive without accumulating more than decades of stocks.
In the past few years, both funds are rapidly declining, even despite the colossal winnings in the course difference due to the devaluation of the ruble (funds - part of international reserves and are stored in currency). According to the Ministry of Finance as July 1, the volume of the reserve fund is 2.46 trillion rubles. In the FNB 4.68 trillion rubles.
At the current level of budget deficit (2.36 trillion rubles), funds are really enough for only three years. However, according to the Ministry of Finance, due to the measures to save the FNB and in three years will continue, declining only up to three trillion rubles.
And yet there is a risk of full exhaustion of reserves, especially with unsuccessful economic situation. However, according to the director of the Institute of Economy of the Russian Academy of Sciences Ruslan Greenberg, the exhaustion of the reserve fund is not yet the end of the world, since the state has several options, with which you can level the absence of reserves. At least six directions should be highlighted.
Increase taxes
This option immediately comes to mind. The "For" argument is obvious - the tax burden in Russia does not exceed 35 percent of GDP, which is significantly lower than in most developed countries of the world, and even somewhat lower than in developing countries in Eastern Europe. For example, in Poland, this indicator is 40 percent, in Estonia and Lithuania - 37 percent. That is, some potential for increasing the fiscal load is.
Now in the country, the president of the moratorium declared by the president to strengthen the tax burden, but in 2018 it will be completed. And some tax raising proposals are already discussed in the State Duma and the Government. In particular, the deputies allowed the introduction of a progressive tax scale on the income of individuals. This measure will primarily affect wealthy citizens. Vice Prime Minister Olga Golodets offered to increase NDFL for Russians earning more than seven-eight million rubles a year. In addition, options for increasing value added tax (indirect consumption tax) are considered, as the IMF in Ukraine requires this.
All these proposals are still refuted at the level of the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economic Development. The government seems to understand that increasing tax rates, in addition to the financial gain, is very large risks. First, collectability can fall. Employees will more often pay in envelopes, and firms will become more active to carry out funds to preferential jurisdictions, in offshore. A small business that will not be able to escape from the tax inspector in the offshores fall into the risk group.
Reduced costs
Actually, this process has already gone - a fundamental solution for freezing budget spending. In fact, this means their serious decline. Even if the plans of the Central Bank of Inflation are implemented, every year real expenses will decrease by four percent.
This simple solution has enough minuses. First, cutting expenses will reduce investment in the economy (even if not always effective). Secondly, the standard of living of a part of the population, which is one way or another of government spending, will decrease. As a result, consumer demand will suffer, which will damage the entire economy.
Again, with too strong compression of budget financing, we should expect a wave of discontent. On the other hand, other things being equal to the fall in government securities will provide some slowdown in inflation. This will have a positive effect on the state of financial markets in the country.
In general, it is not surprising that the government also prefers this option. But this is what will happen in three years if the current cautious frost measures will not give results, it is difficult to predict - the state may not go to more sharp steps.
External debt
Financing due to external debt is one of the traditional ways to exit the budget crisis. Examples in the world more than enough, starting with the world's largest economy - the United States, where the term of debt liabilities increases every few years.
Russia seems to be good opportunities for borrowing from outside. The last placement of bonds confirmed this - the demand for domestic Eurobonds twice the proposal. The volume of external public debt is held at the level of five percent of GDP for many years. In most even developing countries, this figure is three times more.
But everything is not so simple. First, no one has canceled sanctions against Russia. Although formally, they do not concern government obligations in foreign markets, on investors who want to buy Russian debts provide political pressure. The complex foreign policy situation increases the risks and by itself. Finally, investors have prejudice regarding Russia's solvency. This factor also forces to sell Russian bonds with some discount. So seriously talking about large-scale borrowings abroad can only be withdrawn by sanctions.
In addition, there are serious doubts about the government's readiness more borrowed abroad. The state goes to it extremely reluctant, fearing the strengthening of dependence on foreign investors. In addition, an increase in the external debt load is dangerous ruble, making it more vulnerable to speculative attacks.
Internal debt
This option looks more attractive in our situation. Russian investors buy federal loan bonds more than willingly. Some time ago, the government even reflected on a certain "mix" of internal and external debt - the sale of ruble obligations to foreign investors. Due to devaluation, these plans had to temporarily minimize.
Over the past three years, Russian domestic debt doubled in absolute indicators and seriously increased in relation to GDP. There is no doubt that the Government will continue to use this tool. The question is only on what scale. With all the convenience of the scheme with the expansion of the internal borrowing, it has one, but very serious minus.
In the conditions of the economic crisis, money sent to the public debt is washed away from the active turnover. They do not go on investments, nor for private consumption, and therefore, it is not necessary to excessively for the expansion of the OFZ market.
Devaluation
Conscious decline in the ruble exchange rate is a powerful tool for economic policy. With it, you can balance the budget. Let's say, analysts Bank of America believe that at a price of oil at $ 25 per barrel, the dollar can jump up to 210 rubles.
Photo: Victor Korotaev / Kommersant
At higher prices for oil, respectively, the Russian currency will need to weaken not so radically. Advisor to the macroeconomics of the general director of the Brokerage House "Opening" Sergey Hestov believes that this is the most likely version of the state of the state in case of devastation of the Cuba.
However, devaluation is a deep shock for the economy. Of course, part of the manufacturers from it wins, but the sharp reduction of imports will hit the level of living of the population and will inevitably turn away the inflation. In the long run, the stability of the ruble can also bring more benefits than a short-term gain from balancing the budget and growth of exporters.
The economic growth
Finally, the taxable base, which means and the revenue part of the budget can be increased by lifting GDP. Plus this approach: nothing will have to sacrifice. Minus: He is the most difficult.
This requires real structural reforms. And unlike other methods, there is nothing to solve the feather stroke on one document - a multi-level painstaking work is needed. Whether the state is ready for this - it is still unclear. So far, the forecasts for the coming years are quite pessimistic: Russia has entered the period of stagnation, and even at the achievement of the notorious bottom, growth will be anemic, within one or two percent.
Experts are very skeptical. According to the Warrefounds of Stock Markets and Financial Engineering, Ranjigs, the former deputy chairman of the Central Bank of Constantine Correspondent, growth due to the internal sources, and not export, remains for the unlikely scenario. First of all, due to the continuing stiffness of monetary and budget policy.
There is here, however, an option that suggests a significant increase in oil prices and other raw materials. Then the growth will resume itself, which will not resort to the printing of strategic cash reserves. However, looking at the current conjuncture of world markets, problems in China and the European Union, the slowdown in the US growth rate, it is not worth counting on it.
Summing up, we can say that the state is likely to choose a combination of several measures.
Konstantin Coroshenko leans to the fact that the State Dong will grow, and the costs are reduced. "Expenditures have already been proposed to freeze, taxes increase very dangerous and political, and for economic reasons. Therefore, we will increase the public debt, the benefit of it is very small for any standards, "the economist said. In addition, according to Corzynchenko, nonnephtegaz revenues are growing now, and if the prices for raw materials will restore at least part of the lost positions, then the raw materials income will be significantly added. In general, for the next five years there will be enough money.
Photo Pavel Sarycheva \\ Ng-Online
According to the results of the first month of the current year, the reserve fund thanks to the course revaluation increased by 1%, reaching 973.5 billion rubles, the Ministry of Finance said in early February. However, in comparison with January 2016, the Foundation fell three times - from 49.7 billion to 16.2 billion dollars.
The rapid expenditure of the reserve fund led to the fall in oil prices: if in 2014 the average annual price of Barrel Urals was $ 97.6, then in 2015 - 51.2, and in 2016 - $ 41.9 (calculations IndexBoxRussia ). The reason for this was the coagulation in October 2014 by the Federal Reserve System of the United States of the Quantitative Situations program, followed by the tightening of monetary policy: In December 2015, the Fed for the first time in nine years raised the key rate (from 0.25 to 0.5%), and in December 2016 brought it up to 0.75%. This, in turn, has become for investors a signal to exit raw materials.
Although from the end of November, oil quotes are held steadily higher than $ 50 / barrel, they are unlikely to reach an abnormally high level of three years ago. The reason for this is the ease of rehabilitation in shale fields in the United States, to restart which there are no additional investments. By virtue of this, the number of drilling rigs operating in the States in early February has reached the highest level for the past year - 583 units (Bakerhughes data). An increase in oil production in the United States will inevitably restrain the growth of quotations, regardless of OPEC efforts.
For Russia, this means the risk of exhaustion of the Reserve Fund already in the first half of this year. So, the government will need to look for new sources for the balancing of the federal budget. The first of these sources will, apparently, the National Welfare Fund (FNB). The fact that the Ministry of Finance resorts to the use of FNB to cover the budget deficit, the Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov stated in June last year at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (PMEF). By the beginning of February, 72.5 billion dollars were accumulated in the FNB - almost as much (72.9 billion) in the reserve fund was concentrated in August 2015. This means that FNB funds are enough to cover the deficit at least a year ahead without a serious reduction in budget expenditures.
Another source of deficit coating could be borrowing in financial markets. However, in the conditions of sanctions, the government has no great opportunity for this. Thus, before last year's placement by the Ministry of Finance of 10-year Eurobonds, the Fed US recommended that investment banks do not acquire Russian debt papers from concerning that the proceeds will be provided to those companies that are under sanctions. As a result, when planning $ 3 billion, the Ministry of Finance managed to place only $ 1.75 billion.
In this regard, the Government sooner or later will have to go to the radical revision of the budget policy. The key to preventing the acute phase of the crisis of public finance can be reduced costs of state-owned companies, armed forces and law enforcement structures, which made the main contribution to increasing budget spending in the last 10 years. For 2005-2015, the federal budget expenditures increased by 12.1 trillion rubles. - from 3.5 trillion to 15.6 trillion rubles. At the same time, the costs of the economy grew by 2 trillion rubles. (from 249 billion to 2.32 trillion rubles), on defense - by 2.6 trillion rubles. (from 581 billion to 3.18 trillion rubles), and security and law enforcement activities - by 1.5 trillion rubles. (from 450 billion to 1.97 trillion rubles).
In reducing these expenses and is a way out of the impending budget crisis, which threatens to become the most serious over the past 20 years. In terms of its scale, such a budget maneuver will be comparable with a 67 percent reduction in arms purchases in 1992 and forced refusal of borrowing in the GKO market, which occurred after the default on August 17, 1998. And in that and in another case, the radical revision of the fiscal policy took place after the budget disaster. I would like this time this revision prevented.
In December, the government spent all reserves of the reserve fund. More than 1 trillion rubles. It was aimed at covering the budget deficit. In 2018, the deficit will be funded at the expense of the FNB
Photo: Maxim Bogodvid / RIA Novosti
In December, the Ministry of Finance fully spent the funds of the reserve fund for the coating of the federal budget deficit, the report on the Office's website. The remains of the reserve fund - $ 7.62 billion, € 6.71 billion and £ 1.10 billion were implemented in the Central Bank for 1 trillion rubles. And enrolled on a unified federal budget account. As a result, zero residues formed on the accounts of the reserve fund "and February 1, 2018, as was conceived last year, he will cease to exist, the Ministry of Finance is noted.
The reserve fund was reset on December 22, when the last 54 billion rubles were spent on financing the budget deficit, shows the treasury statistics. In January-November 2017, the reserve fund remained untouched. The budget deficit in 2017, according to the estimates of the Ministry of Finance, amounted to about 1.6% of GDP (1.5 trillion rubles).
The Ministry of Finance has repeatedly warned about the exhaustion of the reserve fund by the end of 2017. Back in early 2016, that while maintaining the pace of use of the Fund's funds, it will be exhausted by 2017. After that, the budget deficit will have to be covered at the expense of the National Welfare Fund (FNB) ,.
In 2017, the Government managed to significantly reduce the spending of sovereign reserves - their spending was spent about 790 billion rubles. Instead of scheduled 1.7 trillion, silhouans to journalists on January 10. "This was done thanks to the work of the budget rule, which provides for the direction of oil and gas income above the price of $ 40 per barrel in government reserves," he said.
His maximum in ruble expression reserve fund reached in early 2015 - 5,86 TRLN RUB., And the maximum in relation to the size of the economy - in early 2009: 12,5% GDP. For 2016, the volume of the reserve fund decreased by 3.7 times - from 3.64 trillion rubles. Up to less than 1 trillion.
Now Russia has one sovereign foundation, but he will again begin to replenish this year. In 2017, the Ministry of Finance has already received additional oil and gas income in the amount, approximately, 829 billion rubles. - They purchased a foreign currency, which until October 1, 2018 will be listed in the FNB. Within the framework of the constant budget rule, the entire volume of oil and gas supplements will be sent to the FNB.
The reserve fund and the FNB were created in 2008 as a result of the separation of the Stabilization Fund. The first was the source of funding budget deficit in the event of a sharp drop in the income of the treasury. The second was created as part of the mechanism of pension provision of citizens to the long term, although essentially this function did not earn. For example, in 2008-2009, part of the FNB was spent on anti-crisis assistance to banks (as a result, the Foundation now owns privileged shares of VTB, Gazprombank and Rosselkhozbank by 279 billion rubles.). Another part of the funds was decided to invest in long-term self-sufficient infrastructure projects, such as the modernization of Transsib and Bama or the construction of NPPs in Finland.
Liquid residues
As of January 1, 2018, the volume of FNB in \u200b\u200bthe ruble equivalent is 3.75 trillion rubles. But, as follows from RBC calculations based on treasury data, only 59% of this volume (2.2 trillion rubles) - free resources that can be taken at any time from accounts in the Central Bank and are used to finance budget deficit or pension deficiency Foundation.
The rest is invested in financial assets - deposits in Vnesheconombank (222.5 billion rubles. Plus $ 6.25 billion), preferred shares of VTB, Rosselkhozbank and Gazprombank (279 billion rubles), securities associated with the implementation of infrastructure projects (113 billion rubles. and $ 4.1 billion, which are placed in preferred Railways and a nuclear power plant, Yamal LNG bonds, "Zapsibneftekhima", etc.), deposits in VTB and Gazprombank to finance infrastructure projects (164 billion rubles). Another $ 3 billion from the FNB was invested at the end of 2013 to buy Eurobonds of Ukraine, according to which she refused to pay after the change of power in the country.
Liquid funds of the FNB, stored in currency accounts in the Central Bank, can be placed in highly reliable bonds of foreign states, for example.
During 2018, the Ministry of Finance currency for the FNB is about 2 trillion rubles. Additional oil and gas revenues for oil prices $ 54-55 per barrel, the silhouans estimated (these amounts, respectively, will be translated into the FNB already in 2019). For $ 60, the volume of purchases of the currency will be 2.8 trillion rubles.
In the new year, the FNB funds will be the main way with borrowing the source of the coating of the federal budget deficit - from the FNB it is planned to use 586 billion rubles. But in the next two years, when the FNB is almost not spent, but only to be replenished, the main source of deficiency coverage will be borrowing. The budget deficit at the same time will be established within 1% of GDP.
The Ministry of Finance of Russia spoke about the results of the placement of funds for the Reserve Fund and the National Welfare Fund for the period from January 1 to December 31, 2017. According to the department, in December 2017, the remains of the reserve fund funds in foreign currency in ($ 7.62 billion, 6, 71 billion euros and 1.10 billion pounds) were sold by the Ministry of Finance for 1 trillion rubles and fully used to cover the deficit of the federal budget.
At the end of January-November last year, the deficit amounted to 532.4 billion rubles. But, according to tradition, for December there are the largest expenditure, so the final deficit rate will grow significantly. According to the forecast of the Minister of Finance, the budget deficit amounted to about 1.5 trillion rubles in 2017 or 1.6% of GDP.
After the December operations, zero remnants were formed on the reserve fund accounts, "and from February 1, 2018 he will cease to exist, the agency said. According to the decision adopted in June last year, the reserve fund joins the National Welfare Fund (FNB).
According to the Ministry of Finance, on January 1, 2018, the volume of the FNB amounted to 3,753 trillion rubles, which is equivalent to $ 65.15 billion. But from this amount, only $ 15.65 billion, 15.14 billion euros posted on certain accounts for accounting for funds of FNB funds in the Bank of Russia. and 3.36 billion pounds sterling. That is, living money in the FNB about 2 trillion rubles.
Earlier, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov predicted the exhaustion of the reserve fund funds. "This year we fully use the funds of the reserve fund, as stipulated by the law on the budget," he said.
The volume of the FNB as of January 1, 2018, according to the forecast of the Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov, was supposed to be 3.7 trillion rubles, and its liquid part is 2.3 trillion rubles.
"The exhaustion of the reserve fund is the formality associated with the fact that instead of two funds will now be one - the FNB. Although, to be honest, only one name will remain from the FNB.
Previously, he was truly a foundation where money was reserved on structural reforms, on certain projects of the future, which should have changed the social and economic condition of the country through transformations, and now it is just a fund that receives money due to exceeding the calculated price of oil and guiding them to finance the deficit budget. That is, it can be called a cash bag "for a black day", as well as for some targeted programs, to the reforms of the relationship not having, "said Alor Broker analyst
The former first deputy chairman of the Central Bank said Gazeta.Ru, which in the exhaustion of the Reserve Fund there is both the pros and cons. Plus, this "disciplines" the Ministry of Finance, since he will not have the ability to "burn out" money from a cube, and the budget will be made quite reliably. Minus - that in the case of the onset of negative consequences, there will be practically no "pillows".
With the present course Oil exhaustion of the reserve fund is not threatened, believes leading an analyst AMARKETS.
But as soon as the oil begins to fall until the critical mark of $ 40 per barrel, the reserves can be exhausted and the devaluation of the ruble will be necessary.
But this year, thanks to high prices for oil, reserves should be replenished. From January 1, 2018, a new budget rule begins to operate in Russia. According to him, the base price for oil is $ 40 per barrel of Russian URALS oil at 2017 prices (every year this value will be indexed by 2%). The amount of exceeding will replenish the reserves. The Ministry of Finance will buy a currency on the market for the amount of rublepads.
Anton Siluanov said that the volume of currency purchases by the Ministry of Finance in the domestic market will be 2 trillion rubles in 2018. Under the average annual price of oil $ 54- $ 55.
"At a price of $ 54- $ 55 per barrel it will be about 2 trillion rubles. Additional oil and gas revenues. Even the spending of reserves that we have foreseen next year, "the minister said.
He also stressed that if the average annual oil price will be $ 60, the Office will acquire a currency by 2.8 trillion rubles.
The head of operations of operations on the Russian stock market IR Freed Finance, notes that the Ministry of Finance should soon publish a plan and calculations to replenish reserves, a preliminary assessment is in the range of $ 38-50 billion in 2018, provided that oil will cost $ 55-60 Barrel of Russian oil Urals.
Last year, the Ministry of Finance bought currency by 830 billion rubles. These funds are not yet enrolled in the FNB.
Analysts of the foreign exchange market believe that the operations of the Ministry of Finance will put pressure on the ruble, and prevent it from a decrease in the American dollar and the euro.
"The regulator plans to fully redeem free currency and thereby eliminate the surplus of the balance of payments, which will actually put the cross to further strengthen the ruble," says the analyst of the social network for Etoro investors in Russia and the CIS.