Demura in contact 2 contacts. The collapse of the ruble will begin this August
Recently, there has been a rapid decline in indices on the world markets, oil prices are losing in price, currency quotes are falling. Disappointing news also comes from China - the volume of exports fell by 4.5 percent in December. Some large corporations are also getting cheaper, in particular, Apple has lost 7 percent in price over several weeks. Are these phenomena evidence of a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis? Famous financial and stock analyst Stepan Demura gave his opinion on this matter and his forecasts for the future of Russia and China, his assessment of the situation at Apple.
- Oil and world indices continue to fall. Can we say that the global economy is approaching a crisis of 2008 scale?
- The crisis in the real sector has been going on for a long time. Virtual markets are not up to the crisis now. The worse the economy scores, the higher the markets will climb. We already went through this in 2007-2008. Because investors will rely on central banks, and central banks will drain liquidity, and virtual markets will grow on liquidity.
The crisis has already arrived, the crisis phenomena continue. If we talk about when the markets will fall by 60 percent, then you have to wait a bit, and they will fall.
- What do you think will happen to Russia during the crisis?
- There is an obscene word, and there is a censorship - w @ full. Falling incomes of the population, unemployment, wild interest rates on loans, poverty is rare, impoverishment of everything and everything, of course, the fall of the ruble and terrible inflation because of this.
- What exchange rate of the ruble do you predict?
- His first goal is 97, then 125, then 250. The goals are old, nothing has changed over the past few years. It is necessary to wait until this strengthening of the ruble is over, and then it will already be possible to estimate at least something in time. I think that during the year we will probably see 100. Now it is difficult to say more precisely in terms of time, because there is too much uncertainty in cyclicality in world markets.
- Here is a question regarding China: the Ministry of Commerce of the PRC reported that the volume of exports in the country in December fell by almost 4.5 percent, and this is a record decline in the last two years. What do you think will happen to the economy of this country in such conditions?
- China's economy is a colossus with long legs. Legs are cracking, they just fold under the weight of their own mistakes. There, even lending to the economy does not lead to its growth, and the fact that their GDP is drawn has already become the talk of the town. Just recently, they put under house arrest a professor of economics, who made it possible to doubt the 6.7 percent “drawn” by the Communist Party, and named the figure as 1.6 or 1.5 percent. As a result, he was put under house arrest. So everything is there, as in a "scoop": one facade, and rot behind the facade. All of this is now starting to crumble. If you look at purchases, purchasing power, at the drop in car sales (for the first time in 20 years), you can come to the conclusion that everything, the "Chinese fairy tale" is over. And just here is the militaristic rhetoric that we (the Chinese) will now "bend" everyone, we will defeat America - like in a "scoop", everything is like ours. When the economy is full of f @ na, militaristic rhetoric begins. We had "Krymnash", they now have "Taiwannash". Let's see how Uncle C will be clicked on the head and nose, this is worth looking at.
- I would like to know your opinion about Apple - not everything is so smooth there, and not everything is so good lately. The share price fell 7%. In your opinion, what is the reason for this decline - the crisis or the fact that “at the helm” there are bad managers?
- Let's just say: even the founder of Apple, Stephen Jobs, once said that the company would die when sales managers, not engineers, took the helm. This is what happened about 3 or 4 years ago. Apple started having problems with innovations, with pricing policy, sales of the 10th iPhone, to put it mildly, did not go very well. They are constantly lowering their estimates of future sales plus the competition. You understand, show-offs are good when there is purchasing power, and when this ability decreases, show-offs are somehow fading into the background. If you need a normal, good phone full of Chinese counterparts, the same Samsung, which is much cheaper and has the same functions ... This is Apple's marketing policy. Once she "shot", now they shoot themselves in the leg. Nothing, the company has 150 or 200 billion cash, they have a lot of money. They will simply fill their niche. Their marketing policy is a relic of the past, because they positioned themselves as such a very expensive item, without which you cannot live. Once again, it works when the consumer has money. When the money runs out, people try to do without "show-off", at least normal, sane people. That's all. Why should they now lower the prices of their phones? Then they will not become "show-off", but the usual Huawei or some other nonsense, which is not much different from Apple in functionality. So yes, we can say that this is a marketing policy, marketing miscalculations, and they will not get out of them, because they will lose the status of expensive "show-off", that's all.
- And here's the last question: just today, an interview with Anton Siluanov was published on the Kommersant website (First Deputy Prime Minister - ed.). In this interview, Siluanov said the following: “We are less interested in changes in the oil price environment, we notice less stock indexes, and pay less attention to changes in the ruble exchange rate”. How would you comment on such a statement?
- Here the question is not for me, but for professional psychiatrists and narcologists, so I cannot answer. Remember Kin-dza-dza: "The government lives on another planet, son." Moreover, their world, apparently, is very illusory, and it was created under the influence of some psychotropic drugs, so it is difficult for me to judge their adequacy.
The well-known Russian trader, as well as financial analyst and commentator Stepan Demura, in an interview given to Business Gazeta, the situation with the new, unprecedentedly tough sanctions imposed by the United States on Russia, and also made a disappointing forecast regarding the future of the ruble, the exchange rate of which against the dollar may soon rise to 120 rubles.
Sanctions will deal a severe blow to the Russian economy
In his commentary, Demura paints the bleak prospects for the Russian economy in light of the new American stations: as you know, many in Russia harbor hopes that they, like the old ones, will have only a limited effect. Demura is in a hurry to dispel these hopes. According to him, the new package of sanctions seriously strengthens the American position in relation to Russia, which, already, to a large extent, was already cut off from world financial markets after 2104. The new sanctions bring this situation to its logical conclusion, therefore, after Trump signs these sanctions, "which no one doubts" - it will first kill the ruble: investors will no longer be able to play carry trade with Russian sovereign obligations and corporate securities, " thus, these sanctions will simply destroy the Russian financial market, ”Demura says. Secondly, the Russian treasury will begin to face serious problems due to the decrease in gas and oil revenues. The expert reiterates that the new sanctions are very serious, only very stupid and not far-sighted people can laugh at them. And, worst of all, the sanctions regime against Russia has been established seriously and for a long time - not one of the presidents, not Trump himself, nor any next president, according to the approved text of the new law, has the right, without the consent of the legislative branch, to cancel or change his decision anti-Russian sanctions. "They have now become part of American law, after which only Congress can lift the sanctions." In addition, in the end, things may come to the point that the West will refuse to lend to Russia at all, which will hit the ruble very hard, especially taking into account the upcoming payments on the debts of Gazprom to Rosneft and other state corporations. According to the expert, in a normal situation, debts are refinanced - that is, new loans are taken to pay off old debts. If the West decides to give up lending to borrowers from Russia altogether, in order to pay off debts, they will have to give up foreign exchange reserves, which, as you understand, will hit the ruble very hard.
As for the consequences for the Russian economy as a whole, they will be truly devastating. Due to the lack of funds in the Russian budget, problems have already arisen with the financing of state projects, access to advanced technologies will be even more difficult. Corporate defaults can be expected. Our "beloved" oligarchs already have liabilities that exceed their assets, and new sanctions only exacerbate this situation. Demura also commented on the official statistics and reports of the government and the Central Bank, according to which the macroeconomic situation in the country looks quite stable. According to him, all such forecasts are of little value. Usually, everything happens exactly the opposite, Demura says, and continues: "if the authorities assure you that everything is fine, then expect another financial and economic collapse." According to Demura, this collapse is really not far off, and the ruble will be the first victim of this collapse. Moreover, oddly enough, the upcoming collapse of the ruble is not directly related to anti-Russian sanctions: the ruble will collapse in the near future by itself. First of all, this is due to the current situation in the world financial markets, mainly in the debt markets of developing countries, from which there is a flight of investors, which may soon take on a panic character. “We should expect the imminent start of falling markets and the flight from risky assets, which include bonds of developing countries, including Russia and their companies. At one time, speculators entered these assets with a huge "leverage" (buying securities with borrowed funds from brokers - editor's note), says a well-known trader.
However, soon we should expect that the crowd principle will play, when several large players rush to throw off ruble assets, considering that the risks are already too great, the rest will rush to follow this example, and I will save myself in the dollar.
Demura predicts a collapse of the ruble in the coming weeks
The collapse of the ruble will begin this August, Demura is sure, who does not agree with the majority opinion. Stepan Demura is sure that figures in 97 and 125 rubles. per dollar... This can happen both before the end of the current year and at the beginning of the next. Moreover, the situation on the foreign exchange market will in no way be connected with the presidential elections, since the Russian authorities are simply not able to influence it. The government has no spare funds, and the financial market in Russia is completely at the mercy of Western money when it comes to the debt and foreign exchange markets. At the same time, the notorious "safety cushion", or Russian gold and foreign exchange reserves, which, as you know, exceed $ 412 billion, cannot save the ruble from collapse. Since, in fact, russia's reserve fund has already been spent almost completely, and the fund for future generations is almost half... Because the funds of this fund were "it is not clear where they were invested." That is, in fact, the country's gold and foreign exchange reserves are not that big. Especially in comparison with the total external debt of the state and corporate. According to Demura, everything that the Central Bank currently has will not be enough even to pay off most of the Russian debts - the Central Bank has liquid reserves that are significantly less than external debt. “There is simply no money for the stability of the ruble,” sums up Demura, continuing that this is the real reason for the introduction of the notorious floating rate. The ruble can collapse twice at any moment.
Europe won't help the Kremlin
Stepan Demura is confident that Russia's hopes for the EU's resistance to US sanctions are groundless. According to the analyst, the fact is that the European Union, specifically in order to reduce the share of Russian oil and gas in its market, has already made a political decision regarding the diversification of energy suppliers, "for this we must say a big thank you to Vladimir Putin and his policies." Ultimately, this will lead to the fact that the export earnings of Russian exporters of oil and gas will seriously decline, and this, naturally, will lead to the fact that the revenues of the Russian budget will be further reduced. You should not see in the desire of the Americans, some kind of special malicious intent. “As the business says, it’s nothing personal - they just want to take advantage of the situation for themselves,” the analyst is sure.
US shale gas supplies - could ruin Gazprom
Stepan Demura also ridiculed the assertion of a number of officials and experts that, they say, American liquefied gas, given the cost of transporting it to consumers in Europe, would be much more expensive than Russian gas, which, as you know, enters Europe via a pipeline. A well-known trader suggests leaving these statements "on the conscience" of those experts and officials who make such statements. Since, in fact, already now the cost of American gas delivered to Europe by tanker and liquefied (converted back into a gaseous state) does not exceed $ 100 per 1,000 cubic meters. At the same time, Gazprom cannot sell gas at a price lower than $ 150 per thousand cubic meters, not work at a loss. “So look, what could be disadvantageous for Europe, in the reorientation to liquefied gas supplied from the United States or Qatar,” Demura sneers. Europe will never object to the supply of liquefied gas from the United States, if only because this leads to lower prices for consumers and diversifies the market, continues the famous trader, and recalls that the so-called experts a few years ago "beat themselves in the chest" and argued that the shale revolution in the United States will never cause a decline in energy prices. Moreover, Demura stressed that the US shale revolution continues. There is an increase in the number of gas hubs, which are intended for the export of liquefied gas. In addition, the development of a very large new shale oil field begins in Texas, about which the Texas oilmen themselves say that they are ready to give this gas free of charge, if they are ready to sign oil supply contracts. This proves that natural gas, as an energy source in the context of the shale revolution, is becoming extremely cheap.
Talking to reporters about the American sanctions, Demura also touched upon the topic that is being discussed in the Russian media at the moment, regarding the fact that the United States intends to impede the construction of the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline, he doubted the need to build a new gas pipeline, since Nord Stream 1 "is underloaded. He suggested that the real reason that the Russian authorities want to build this pipeline is corrupt. “I think it's all about building contracts,” the expert says. In his opinion, contracts of this kind are the most tasty morsels of government orders, not counting kickbacks. This explains all the excitement around the Nord Streams, Turkish Stream, or the Power of Siberia gas pipeline. “The guys are digging the ground - the infrastructure is more expensive than gold,” Demura says.
In addition, the expert recalled that many European companies find themselves in a difficult situation after Trump signs the new sanctions law. This will call into question such Russian projects as the Turkish Stream, since the pipes of this gas pipeline under the Black Sea were supposed to be laid by an Italian company, which may now be subject to sanctions. But do not be upset, because - except for Gazprom, no one needs the Turkish stream, - Demura is sure. He explains this by the fact that work has already begun on laying a gas pipeline to Turkey from the Israeli giant Leviathan field, which is located in the Mediterranean Sea. It will be ready in 2018. Thus, Turkey is turning into the largest hub for the supply of Middle Eastern gas to the European Union. This situation will further aggravate Russia's position in the European market.
Material prepared by Alexandra Melnik
today at 09:55Flooding of settlements and communication lines is predicted in the Khabarovsk Territory from Wednesday
The Amur level near Komsomolsk-on-Amur reached almost 827 cm
Water flooded some streets, flooded houses, schools, kindergartens and hospitals. And also damaged one of the dams, reports the TASS agency. Experts warn that water will still arrive. The reason for this was the rains. The situation is complicated by Typhoon Linlin, which brought heavy rainfall and wind to the Khabarovsk Territory.
So, according to the regional department of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation, an intensive rise in the water level by 11-215 cm per day is observed on the rivers Bureya, Tyrma, Urmi, Berendzha, Kur, Amgun.
The scientific director of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia, Roman Vilfand, specified that the rise of water on the lower Amur is due to a flood wave and intense precipitation.
"Levels of the category of hazardous phenomena and higher persist on the Amur from the village of Elabuga to the village of Bogorodskoye. The water levels of the category of adverse phenomena persist on the Amur in the Ulchsky region, on the Ussuri river in Bikinsky, Vyazemsky, named after Lazo. On the Amur, from the city of Khabarovsk to the village of Troitskoye, it is weak decline, lower to the mouth - rise by 4-15 cm per day.On the Amur River near the city of Khabarovsk, a drop in water level by 5-10 cm is expected during the day. Near the city of Komsomolsk-on-Amur, water level rises will remain for another three days up to 15 cm. On the Amur in the Ulchsky district near the village of Takhta, in the next 24 hours, the water levels will reach the criterion for hazardous phenomena, "the press service of the Ministry of Emergency Situations in the Khabarovsk Territory said.
Stepan Demura today at 09:46
OIL and BUSINESS CYCLE.
Other things being equal, oil prices, as well as industrial metals, should fully and completely depend on the rate of economic growth. Metals remain at a more deterministic pace of the business cycle than the oil market because a significant contribution to pricing is made by the regulation of OPEC, and now also OPEC +.
The picture shows the comparative dynamics of oil prices and the business cycle. In general, even taking into account the influence of OPEC on the market, the determination is clearly traced. If we try to predict future economic growth, then an important point is the level of demand in the global economy, namely, its stimulation by central banks.
In the context of lower rates from the leading central banks, this will increase the level of demand in the world (money is cheaper, more money), which will stimulate consumption (investment + consumer spending). This state of affairs will determine the growth of the economy, and, as a consequence, the rise in prices for energy resources and industrial metals.
Stepan Demura today at 09:35
By 2030, the competencies of 45.5% of workers in Russia will be irrelevant and they will either have to leave the labor market or retrain. Such conclusions are presented in a study by RANEPA. According to the authors, 20.1 million people will be exposed to digitalization and automation risks.
A likely solution to the problem could be the introduction of a tax on robots (the funds raised can be directed to social assistance) or the transition to a four-day work week. The situation can stabilize even without government intervention, experts say, since the process will be extended over time.
Additional tax burden will slow down the development of advanced technologies and activities, which will reduce Russia's competitiveness in the world market
Robots can be tasked with most of the work in the hotel and restaurant business (73% of those employed here are at risk of automation), manufacturing (60%), agriculture and forestry (58%), retail trade (53%) and mining (51 %).
Stepan Demura, biography - who is he really?
Stepan Demura is an experienced financial market expert. However, his predictions do not always come true and in almost all cases go against the opinion of the majority of world experts.
Expert's school and student years
Stepan Demura was born in the city of the capital of Russia in August 1967. He graduated from school with success, constantly defending his position before anyone else. From an early age, he showed assertiveness and often brought any business to a world end. In those years, the boy began to show interest in the financial system, but after school, it was decided to enter the rocket engineer at the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology. But this circumstance did not in any way affect his craving for the analysis of the financial system. The young man studied English, and the exchange system finally won his heart. Demura recalls that even then a lot of remarkable opportunities were spinning in his head, but he could not bring them to life due to the financial problem.
A specialist with honors was immediately noted by foreign colleagues and invited to work at a research university in Chicago. Demura agreed and went to live in America.
Work in America
After a year of internship abroad, Stepan Demura was hired at Sheridan Investments LLC, where a year later he became the head of the department, exclusively engaged in research of world markets. The 90s became a real triumph in professional activity for the expert:
1992 - a lot of opportunities open up for the analyst to implement his ideas, since this year Russia is entering the world markets;
1994 - the career ladder raises Stepan higher and higher, and he becomes first a consultant and then a leading securities trader in a state American company. Soon he was offered the position of leading analyst in the field.
Twelve years after starting a career in Stepan Demura, he returns to Russia.
Work at home
After returning to Moscow, the expert continues to work with the stock market. After some time, Stepan Gennadievich began to manage the property of the Russian Investment Club, being also a member of the Arlan company.
For the first time, viewers were able to see him on television in 2006. Then he tried to tell the public about his calculations on the state of the world market. According to his calculations, in 2008 a global crisis was about to occur. But against the background of the general development of many industries, no one took his words seriously. But, continuing to defend his position, two years later, the expert announces a possible mortgage collapse in the United States, which will affect residents in all countries. Within a few months, his words became reality and he began to gain popularity.
The expert gives his bright forecasts based on the Elliott wave theory, which shows the dynamics of the exchange instruments on the chart patterns.
Such a promising analyst was noticed by the oligarch and the owner of the TV channel, who offered him a place as a TV presenter in two popular TV programs at once: Dialogue and Markets.
However, in 2012, the TV channel had to break the contract with the scandalous Stepan Gennadievich, since Demura began to allow various kinds of "blunders" on the air and often allowed himself to express himself inappropriately.
Until 2015, after his dismissal from television, the analyst worked for the radio Echo of Moscow. There he hosted his own program. However, the project is being closed, and today Stepan Gennadievich reads seminars on the topic of finance in Russia and European countries.
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The personality of Stepan Demura causes a lot of controversy among politicians and economists. His categorical statements excite the minds of ordinary people and draw them into endless disputes.
Biography
Stepan was born into a Moscow family in 1967. From an early age, the boy was distinguished by childish wisdom, reasoning and the ability to convey his point of view correctly and constructively. He also loved to protect his peers in conflict situations. At school he was respected and listened to his remarks.
The guy began to be interested in financial analytics in high school. But after school, Stepan did not go to study as an economist, but entered the Moscow Institute of Physics and Mathematics at the faculty of rocket science. She is also engaged in self-education, studying English and at the same time studying finance. Now, in his interviews, the man admits that there were enough ambitions, but there was not enough money to realize them.
After graduation, he received the specialty of a rocket engineer. His graduate work attracted the interest of colleagues from the University of Chicago, who invited him to continue his studies at a master's degree at their institution. Stepan doubted for a long time. Uncertainty was in the level of knowledge of the English language, but nevertheless he made up his mind and left Russia.
Career in the USA
After a year of study, Stepan Demura felt confident in terms of the language and got a job at Sheridan Investments LLC. This company was engaged in the analysis of world financial markets. In the early 90s, Demura asserts himself as an analyst. And two years later, he was invited to a government structure that studies and controls US bonds.
From a simple ordinary employee, he managed to grow to a leading trader in a few years, and then became a leading specialist in the field of securities analytics.
In parallel with his government work, Stepan Demura teaches at the University of Chicago. Among students and colleagues, he was held in high esteem as a knowledgeable specialist, always able to explain complex things in simple words.
Career at home
After 12 years of successful work, Stepan returned to Moscow, where he began researching the Russian stock market. The invaluable experience he gained abroad made him feel confident in the fields of numbers, finance and analysis. Another branch of his activity is the analysis of gold mining.
2006 was a landmark year for Stepan. He appeared on television and announced an imminent global crisis. But then it looked like a "horror story" that will never happen. Indeed, at that time all sectors of the economy were experiencing a peak of prosperity, new commercial buildings were built, supermarkets were opened, and banks offered a wide range of credit products.
In early 2008, he again tried to convey information about the future crisis, but even then his words did not resonate. The reason for making such statements emerged from deep knowledge of the global financial system.
But, as you know, his predictions came true, and very quickly.
The television
These forecasts made him famous in the world of finance and politics, his compatriots recognized him as an experienced expert. The business channel RBK-TV invited Stepan to host several financial programs.
But Stepan often used the channel's opportunity and shocked at his expense. His predictions came true less and less, and once he allowed not to speak very correctly about the financial analysts of the same channel. This led to the fact that the channel management did not keep such an employee and terminated the cooperation contract with him.
After that, Stepan Demura organized his own program, which he conducted on the radio Echo Moscow-Vologda. The program also found its audience, and Stepan gained a lot of listeners.
Personal life
This side of the analyst's life is hidden from the public. It is known from some sources that he is married and has two daughters.
There are no hobbies or interesting hobbies behind him. His work is his favorite hobby.
Social Pages
Stepan Demura in VKontakte has official group - https://vk.com/stepan_demura. This is an open group where each member can post a post or comment. Demura also opened more than 400 discussions on Vkontakte, in which anyone can participate.
Demura in VKontakte has 32 thousand followers from different countries of the post-Soviet space.
Twitter Analytics - https://twitter.com/demura_stepan. The live page, which is actively maintained by the owner, creates new tweets in the form of the most relevant news, analytical statements in the political and financial spheres. Demuru has 33,000 followers on Twitter.
Stepan Demura has a personal facebook page - https://www.facebook.com/StepanDemura. Videos on the wall are constantly commented on by users of the social network.
In addition, the analyst has his own demura TV website - http://demura.tv and a YouTube channel - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v\u003dXA4gWchKYAk, which contain a selection of videos from his performances.
Unfortunately, we could not find any official or personal pages on Odnoklassniki and Instagram.
Stepan Demura is an interesting person. They like to invite him to political and financial programs. Very often he can be seen live, where he works in the mode of questions and answers from the population.