Ruble exchange rate forecast for Stepan Demur. Stepan Demura said that the collapse of the ruble is already beginning
Stepan Demura is a renowned Russian economist and stock market analyst. He made a forecast for the current year for the Russian Federation and the country's foreign exchange market. According to Demura, the current year will be more stable, but at the same time the growth of the dollar and the fall of the euro cannot be avoided.
Russia should not expect anything good this year; most likely, the Russian Federation will be on the verge of default.
Demura's forecasts for the country's politics and economy
At the end of December, at one of the seminars, a financial analyst predicted the development of politics and economy in the Russian Federation. He also talked about what to expect from the exchange rate in the coming months.
According to the analyst, this year will tighten sanctions in more vulnerable places in Russia, for example, restrictions on Russian federal loan bonds and the fuel and energy complex.
But at the same time, the sanctions against the Russian fuel and energy complex will more affect the ban on American service companies that operate in the Russian market. At the same time, the financier recalled that about 80% of the service market for fuel and energy companies is in American hands, which could greatly reduce production.
Regarding the issue of investing bonds, the economist believes that positions will have to be reduced due to the likelihood of imposing restrictions.
In total, all these factors can be reflected in the state of the ruble, most likely, the dollar will then rise in value to 100-120 rubles.
The dollar is growing in the world
The analyst says that the dollar is likely to decline slightly after the holidays, but despite everything, the dollar is now growing around the world. In his opinion, based on American studies on the prohibition of investments in the Russian Federation, the market is so small that no one will notice its closure.
Stepan Demura also commented on the words of Elvira Nabiullina, who said that if the United States refused to buy Russian bonds, the Central Bank itself would buy them back.
The economist noted that the Central Bank does not have a machine for printing dollars, and the solution is to keep the rate at the current level, but this will not stop capital outflow.
Upcoming presidential elections and expert opinion
Demura did not refrain from commenting on the upcoming March elections. He believes that they will be completely falsified. His opinion coincides with the statements of other experts who emphasized the fact that politicians have relied on an increased turnout in the presidential elections in the Russian Federation.
In support of his words, Demura cited the 2011 election campaign as an example, when the real results of United Russia were 24-25%, but in the end it turned out to be 49%. The situation was the same in the 2016 parliamentary elections, when the real figures were 24-25%.
The central bank will not be able to cope with the fall of the ruble and the rise in the dollar rate, according to stock market analyst Stepan Demura, as he spoke about in an interview. First of all, this is the thoughtless policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, as well as the government as a whole. But absolutely stupid ideas are being implemented in the form of a "crypto-ruble", instead of actually saving the economy. In addition, the public sector in the banking sector of the Russian Federation exceeded 70 percent, in fact, turning capitalism in Russia into state capitalism.
The fall of the ruble will take place in stages, at the last of which there will be another denomination. It is already possible to deny that neither oil nor injections into banks can support the ruble, and the dollar rate in Russia has approached 60. The next goal, according to Demura, is 70, then 97. The denomination will take place at 500 rubles per dollar, which, however his opinion is not to wait so long.
“Irrecoverable losses in the amount of 4 trillion. rubles - this figure was announced by the famous financial analyst Stepan Demura on Echo of Moscow in his assessment of the effectiveness of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation over the past 3 years. Another expert's interview on Echo of Moscow was devoted to the discussion of topical financial issues, among which the critical state of the Russian banking system continues to be the most acute. "
The fall in global markets is just around the corner as most of the stock market is bubbled up. The dollar exchange rate will rise rapidly after that, drowning the Russian economy. The ruble will collapse colossally against the dollar. At the same time, the exchange analyst relies on data from global economic statistics and the analysis of economist Vladislav Zhukovsky.
“The capitalization of the global stock market has exceeded $ 88.5 trillion (116% of world GDP). Printing presses and negative interest rates blew bubbles. " - Zhukovsky writes in his article, hinting at a collapse in a year or two. Demura, commenting on the article, notes: “When the bubble begins to deflate, the underdeveloped markets, first of all, the Russian market will blow away. There are no liquid reserves. What then will the Central Bank do, raise or lower the rate? Or will it just be all liquid? "
At the same time, the banking system in Russia has already become practically state-owned. According to the analyst, everything goes to the fact that the state, which closes problem financial institutions, will soon gain full control over the banking system, despite the fact that today it already owns about 70-80% of all banking assets available in the country. At the same time, Stepan Demura emphasizes that the Central Bank crushes commercial banks solely out of despair: "Right now there is no other way out, since the banking system is collapsing, and it cannot be allowed to do this before the presidential elections in 2018 ..."
Also Demuru amused the crypto-ruble.
“According to the expert,“ the main difference between the domestic cryptocurrency will be that it will be under the full and total control of the authorities. It will be of the so-called maternity nature. Apparently, there will be attempts to transfer all transactions between the budget and counterparties to the cryptocurrency format in order to provide even greater control over these flows. Do not forget that the budget is almost empty, it needs to be filled, and they hope that this control will help in solving this problem. "
The "Kremlin report" will crush Russian officials, said well-known analyst Stepan Demura, especially since the introduction of sanctions will be, albeit gradual, but inevitable. They will be easy to enter, but difficult to reverse. Congress is unlikely to be ready to do this quickly enough, even after the Kremlin fulfills a number of conditions important to the United States. This means that the Russian economy will collapse for a long time.
Demura also once again confirmed the fall of the ruble and the growth of the dollar in the near future - there are clear signs and the nearest goal of the dollar in Russia - 97 rubles per unit. He announced this in a new series of lectures at the City-class in Moscow.
The Russian authorities, Demura believes, did not expect such a development of events. The analyst also voiced the story of Hillary Clinton, which, in his opinion, the Russian authorities bought for 270 million, and this is precisely why the resulting attitude of the Obama administration to the events in Ukraine and in Syria is connected.
Now everything has changed dramatically, says Demura, who sneers at the fact that the Russian authorities expected Trump to turn out to be pro-Russian, and only the American establishment does not allow him to show his true attitude towards Russia. The analyst also confirmed that, in his opinion, new sanctions will be introduced, and also suggested that sooner or later they will also affect the ban on the purchase of the state debt of the Russian Federation.
Demura: forecasts for the Russian economy
Commenting on the situation in the Russian economy, the expert was generous with sarcasm. In particular, Demura also recalled the government's promises that by 2018 20 million high-paying jobs will be created, and about doubling the GDP.
The analyst also recalled the promise of Oreshkin, who stated that the Russian economy has already gone through the bottom, and literally will begin to develop right now, because artificial intelligence, new logistics, and some other settlement systems will be introduced everywhere within 2 years. And Demura also added that the Russian authorities made a loud statement that a new credit cycle has begun in Russia with low inflation, imagine, the expert shares, it ends all over the world, and here it begins.
So what is happening with our economy? If you do not delve into the details of inflation provided by Rosstat, then according to the analyst, very unpleasant things are happening. We are talking here about the GDP growth that allegedly happened in 2017, but after all, oil prices rose, and this is evident from the fact that the income of enterprises in the manufacturing sector decreased by 11% year-on-year, in trade - by 20%, and in construction and altogether 3 times. On the other hand, the revenues of oil refineries increased by 80%, respectively, the profit of raw materials companies also increased by about 20%.
This reflects the entire growth of the economy - oil prices have grown, the economy has grown in terms of GDP, oil prices have fallen, everything that has grown will also fall accordingly. But this factor does not affect all other industries, because they have been shrinking and will continue to shrink, the analyst shares his opinion. Moreover, this process is acquiring an accelerating character, as is the actual decline in the real disposable income of the population, as can be seen in the graph on which two graphs are superimposed: the average quarterly oil prices and the quarterly GDP of Russia in dollars. So on this graph there is full compliance.
Demura said that the recession in the real sector has been going on since 2013, and this process is only accelerating, and this happened not at all because of the sanctions, but for completely different fundamental reasons that no one is fighting
Demura is also pessimistic about the world economy, which, in his opinion, is clearly stopping.
Savings are at the minimum level, not only in Russia, but also in the States and in Europe, debts are at the maximum level, that is, there is no real money at all, but everyone is waiting for a miracle to come tomorrow.
Demura also recalled the words of one academician economist, who says that technological revolutions help to get out of depression, but according to Demura, it is these technological revolutions that are the cause of the depression.
Demura's predictions for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies
Demura also notes that his forecast for the fall of cryptocurrencies has already been confirmed with an accuracy of the day
It should be noted that the well-known expert, economist Stepan Demura warned the audience about the imminent decline during the seminar in City-Class back in September last year. He called Bitcoin a bubble and made strong arguments in favor of the fact that after a rapid vertical growth in value, cryptocurrency will face an equally rapid fall, followed by a rollback to the normal price.
The reason for such sharp fluctuations, according to the analyst, is the low capitalization of major cryptocurrencies, amounting to only $ 150 billion. (For comparison: the capitalization of gold is about 8 trillion, and the global stock market is 80 trillion).
"A dollar at 120 rubles and $ 20 per barrel of oil" - such a shocking forecast for the Russian economy was made by the well-known economist and financial expert Stepan Demura.
The rapid fall in the ruble exchange rate against most world currencies has put many Russians before the question of the advisability of keeping their savings in the national currency. “The dollar and gold are the main ways of saving capital,” says the financial expert. It is physical gold bullion that will be a good investment and a way to save capital for many decades. The only problem with gold is low liquidity and conversion losses. Mostly banks work with gold, which charge a large commission for operations with gold bars.
The US dollar is more profitable in this regard, this currency is accepted in the absolute majority of countries in the world at a favorable rate. At the same time, rumors about the dollar's depreciation and the collapse of the United States are rather exaggerated. According to Demura, nothing threatens the US currency in the next one and a half to two years, so you can safely store your savings in it.
As for the ruble, the prospects for the Russian currency in 2017 are very dim. According to forecasts of experts interviewed by Bloomberg, the cost of a barrel of oil on world markets will drop to $ 15. This means that the ruble exchange rate will be at least 120-130 rubles per dollar.
Stepan Demura at the end of 2014, when there was a two-fold devaluation of the ruble, said the legendary phrase that “the ruble has no bottom”. Its exchange rate against the dollar can be absolutely anything.
How will the rate of 120 rubles per dollar affect the lives of ordinary citizens?
Russia is a country that imports approximately 70% of the consumer goods basket. With foreign suppliers it is necessary to pay in dollars, the value of which is rapidly growing against the ruble. Therefore, most Russians will be unpleasantly surprised when they see an increase in prices for many familiar and everyday goods.
Moreover, the cost of domestic products will also increase, which supposedly does not depend on the dollar exchange rate. But even the cost of producing domestic goods has a dollar component. Many related components for the production of products (vaccines, machines, technologies, etc.) are bought abroad, so you will need to pay for them in dollars.
The situation is aggravated by the fact that only 10-15 million Russians are employed in the real production sector. The rest of the citizens live on taxes and deductions from this 10-15%, and also enjoy the results of their labor. Many receive salaries, pensions and benefits from the federal budget, which, if oil prices fall, will not be able to index them in line with inflation. This will lead to a massive drop in the standard of living of Russians and the impoverishment of the population.
The falling purchasing power of the population will hit small and medium-sized businesses, retail chains and the service sector. They will begin to close en masse, employees will be laid off and laid off, which will create additional pressure on the labor market and a drop in wages for which people will agree to work.
What can be changed to prevent the fall in oil prices from causing such a shock to the economy?
According to Stepan Demura, it is necessary to develop a real production sector that would provide Russians with high-quality domestic goods by 70-80%. The course towards import substitution, taken by the Russian authorities in 2014, did not become successful. It is impossible to build up a production base and create technologies that will be competitive with other countries in such a short time. This should have been started 15-20 years ago.
Which economic model will save Russia?
Models of Western countries can be taken as an example of development. For them, everything is based on the inviolability of private property and on the replacement of the ruling elites. In Russia, the main economic power is in the hands of the oligarchs; there is no turnover of political elites. This model of government and economy has long outlived its usefulness, and the colossal dependence on oil and gas exports and the lack of sufficient production capacity within the country led to the economic collapse that we are witnessing today.
The well-known Russian trader, as well as financial analyst and commentator Stepan Demura, in an interview given to Business Gazeta, the situation with the new, unprecedentedly tough sanctions imposed by the United States on Russia, and also made a disappointing forecast regarding the future of the ruble, the exchange rate of which against the dollar may soon rise to 120 rubles.
Sanctions will deal a severe blow to the Russian economy
In his commentary, Demura paints the bleak prospects for the Russian economy in light of the new American stations: as you know, many in Russia harbor hopes that they, like the old ones, will have only a limited effect. Demura is in a hurry to dispel these hopes. According to him, the new package of sanctions seriously strengthens the American position in relation to Russia, which, already, to a large extent, was already cut off from world financial markets after 2104. The new sanctions bring this situation to its logical conclusion, therefore, after Trump signs these sanctions, "which no one doubts" - it will first kill the ruble: investors will no longer be able to play carry trade with Russian sovereign obligations and corporate securities, " thus, these sanctions will simply destroy the Russian financial market, ”Demura says. Secondly, the Russian treasury will begin to face serious problems due to the decrease in gas and oil revenues. The expert repeats that the new sanctions are very serious; only very stupid and not far-sighted people can laugh at them. And, worst of all, the sanctions regime against Russia has been established seriously and for a long time - not one of the presidents, not Trump himself, nor any next president, according to the approved text of the new law, has the right, without the consent of the legislative branch, to cancel or change his decision anti-Russian sanctions. "They have now become part of American law, after which only Congress can lift the sanctions." In addition, in the end, things may come to the point that the West will refuse to lend to Russia at all, which will hit the ruble very hard, especially taking into account the upcoming payments on the debts of Gazprom to Rosneft and other state corporations. According to the expert, in a normal situation, debts are refinanced - that is, new loans are taken to pay off old debts. If the West decides to give up lending to borrowers from Russia altogether, in order to pay off debts, they will have to give up foreign exchange reserves, which, as you understand, will hit the ruble very hard.
As for the consequences for the Russian economy as a whole, they will be truly devastating. Due to the lack of funds in the Russian budget, problems have already arisen with the financing of state projects, access to advanced technologies will be even more difficult. Corporate defaults can be expected. Our "beloved" oligarchs already have liabilities that exceed their assets, and new sanctions only exacerbate this situation. Demura also commented on the official statistics and reports of the government and the Central Bank, according to which the macroeconomic situation in the country looks quite stable. According to him, all such forecasts are worth little. Usually, everything happens exactly the opposite, Demura says, and continues: "if the authorities assure you that everything is fine, then expect the next financial and economic collapse." According to Demura, this collapse is really not far off, and the ruble will be the first victim of this collapse. Moreover, oddly enough, the upcoming collapse of the ruble is not directly related to anti-Russian sanctions: the ruble will collapse in the near future by itself. First of all, this is due to the current situation in the world financial markets, mainly in the debt markets of developing countries, from which there is a flight of investors, which may soon take on a panic character. “We should expect the imminent start of falling markets and the flight from risky assets, which include bonds of developing countries, including Russia and their companies. At one time, speculators entered these assets with a huge "leverage" (buying securities with borrowed funds from brokers - editor's note), says a well-known trader.
However, soon we should expect that the crowd principle will play, when several large players rush to throw off ruble assets, considering that the risks are already too great, the rest will rush to follow this example, and I will save myself in the dollar.
Demura predicts a collapse of the ruble in the coming weeks
The collapse of the ruble will begin this August, Demura is sure, who does not agree with the majority opinion. Stepan Demura is sure that we should expect a figure in 97 and 125 rubles. per dollar... This can happen both before the end of this year, and at the beginning of the next. Moreover, the situation on the foreign exchange market will in no way be connected with the presidential elections, since the Russian authorities are simply not able to influence it. The government has no spare funds, and the financial market in Russia is completely at the mercy of Western money when it comes to the debt and foreign exchange markets. At the same time, the notorious "safety cushion", or Russian gold and foreign exchange reserves, which, as you know, exceed $ 412 billion, cannot save the ruble from collapse. Since, in fact, the reserve fund of Russia has already been spent almost completely, and the fund for future generations is almost half... Because the funds of this fund were "it is not clear where they were invested." That is, in fact, the country's gold and foreign exchange reserves are not that big. Especially in comparison with the total external debt of the state and corporate. According to Demura, everything that the Central Bank currently has will not be enough even to pay off most of the Russian debts - the Central Bank has liquid reserves that are significantly less than external debt. “There is simply no money for the stability of the ruble,” sums up Demura, continuing that this is the real reason for the introduction of the notorious floating rate. The ruble can collapse twice at any moment.
Europe won't help the Kremlin
Stepan Demura is confident that Russia's hopes for the EU's resistance to US sanctions are groundless. According to the analyst, the fact is that the European Union, specifically in order to reduce the share of Russian oil and gas in its market, has already made a political decision regarding the diversification of energy suppliers, "for this we must say a big thank you to Vladimir Putin and his policies." Ultimately, this will lead to the fact that the export earnings of Russian exporters of oil and gas will seriously decline, and this, naturally, will lead to the fact that the revenues of the Russian budget will be further reduced. It is not necessary to see in the desire of the Americans, some special malicious intent. “As the business says, it’s nothing personal - they just want to take advantage of the situation for themselves,” the analyst is sure.
US shale gas supplies - could ruin Gazprom
Stepan Demura also ridiculed the assertion of a number of officials and experts that, they say, American liquefied gas, given the cost of transporting it to consumers in Europe, will be much more expensive than Russian gas, which is known to be delivered to Europe via a pipeline. A well-known trader suggests leaving these statements "on the conscience" of those experts and officials who make such statements. Since, in fact, already now the cost of American gas delivered to Europe by tanker and liquefied (converted back into a gaseous state) does not exceed $ 100 per 1,000 cubic meters. At the same time, Gazprom cannot sell gas at a price lower than $ 150 per thousand cubic meters, not working at a loss. “So look, what could be disadvantageous for Europe, in the reorientation to liquefied gas supplied from the United States or Qatar,” Demura sneers. Europe will never object to the supply of liquefied gas from the United States, if only because this leads to lower prices for consumers and diversifies the market, continues the famous trader, and recalls that the so-called experts a few years ago "beat themselves in the chest" and argued that the shale revolution in the United States will never cause a decline in energy prices. Moreover, Demura stressed that the US shale revolution continues. There is an increase in the number of gas hubs, which are intended for the export of liquefied gas. In addition, the development of a very large new shale oil field begins in Texas, about which the Texas oilmen themselves say that they are ready to give this gas free of charge, if they are ready to sign oil supply contracts. This proves that natural gas, as an energy source in the context of the shale revolution, is becoming extremely cheap.
Talking to reporters about the American sanctions, Demura also touched upon the topic that is being discussed in the Russian media at the moment, regarding the fact that the United States intends to obstruct the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. He doubted the need to build a new gas pipeline, 1 "is underloaded. He suggested that the real reason that the Russian authorities want to build this pipeline is corrupt. “I think it's all about building contracts,” the expert says. In his opinion, contracts of this kind are the most tasty morsels of government orders, not counting kickbacks. This explains all the excitement around the Nord Streams, Turkish Stream, or the Power of Siberia gas pipeline. “The guys are digging the ground - the infrastructure is more expensive than gold,” Demura says.
In addition, the expert recalled that many European companies find themselves in a difficult situation after Trump signs the new sanctions law. This will call into question such Russian projects as the Turkish Stream, since the pipes of this gas pipeline under the Black Sea were supposed to be laid by an Italian company, which may now be subject to sanctions. But do not be upset, because - except for Gazprom, no one needs the Turkish stream, - Demura is sure. He explains this by the fact that work has already begun on laying a gas pipeline to Turkey from the Israeli giant Leviathan field, which is located in the Mediterranean Sea. It will be ready in 2018. Thus, Turkey is turning into the largest hub for the supply of Middle Eastern gas to the European Union. This situation will further aggravate Russia's position in the European market.
Material prepared by Alexandra Melnik