What are the forecasts for the dollar. The dynamics of the us dollar
Please note that installed central bank exchange rates do not change on weekends! In the table below you can see the dollar and euro exchange rates for today, tomorrow and a week ahead. If you are interested in the future fate of currencies, follow the news and track quotes updates.
dollar exchange rate | Euro exchange rate | Ruble's exchange rate | |
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There will be an official course for 09/11/2019 (we will find out through 18 hours) |
? | ? | ? |
Current official exchange rate as of 09/10/2019 best bank rates |
65.5698 -43 kop. |
72.3300 -56 kop. |
has risen in price significantly + 0.7% |
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Since the last official exchange rate was determined on 09/10/2019 | decreased insignificantly -3 kop. |
grew up a little +9 kop. |
slightly cheaper -0.03% (oil during this time: |
For the last hour | slightly increased +4 kop. |
slightly increased +6 kop. |
slightly cheaper -0.07% |
Current exchange rate on the InstaForex exchange
Forecast of the dollar and euro for a month
Currency exchange rate forecast for August | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
date of | Day of the week | Well | Max. | Min. | Well | Max. | Min. |
07.08.2019 | Wednesday | 65.75 | 66.74 | 64.76 | 74.49 | 75.61 | 73.37 |
08.08.2019 | Thursday | 66.90 | 67.90 | 65.90 | 76.00 | 77.14 | 74.86 |
09.08.2019 | Friday | 67.48 | 68.49 | 66.47 | 76.72 | 77.87 | 75.57 |
12.08.2019 | Monday | 67.56 | 68.57 | 66.55 | 76.24 | 77.38 | 75.10 |
13.08.2019 | Tuesday | 67.69 | 68.71 | 66.67 | 76.45 | 77.60 | 75.30 |
14.08.2019 | Wednesday | 68.12 | 69.14 | 67.10 | 77.06 | 78.22 | 75.90 |
15.08.2019 | Thursday | 67.96 | 68.98 | 66.94 | 76.74 | 77.89 | 75.59 |
16.08.2019 | Friday | 67.86 | 68.88 | 66.84 | 76.66 | 77.81 | 75.51 |
19.08.2019 | Monday | 67.92 | 68.94 | 66.90 | 76.67 | 77.82 | 75.52 |
20.08.2019 | Tuesday | 68.09 | 69.11 | 67.07 | 76.47 | 77.62 | 75.32 |
21.08.2019 | Wednesday | 68.13 | 69.15 | 67.11 | 76.45 | 77.60 | 75.30 |
22.08.2019 | Thursday | 68.23 | 69.25 | 67.21 | 76.14 | 77.28 | 75.00 |
23.08.2019 | Friday | 68.20 | 69.22 | 67.18 | 76.45 | 77.60 | 75.30 |
26.08.2019 | Monday | 68.10 | 69.12 | 67.08 | 76.45 | 77.60 | 75.30 |
27.08.2019 | Tuesday | 68.55 | 69.58 | 67.52 | 76.62 | 77.77 | 75.47 |
28.08.2019 | Wednesday | 68.13 | 69.15 | 67.11 | 76.06 | 77.20 | 74.92 |
29.08.2019 | Thursday | 68.34 | 69.37 | 67.31 | 76.43 | 77.58 | 75.28 |
30.08.2019 | Friday | 68.04 | 69.06 | 67.02 | 76.10 | 77.24 | 74.96 |
Exchange Rate Forecast for September | Dollar exchange rate forecast for a week and a month | Euro exchange rate forecast for a week and a month | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
date of | Day of the week | Well | Max. | Min. | Well | Max. | Min. |
02.09.2019 | Monday | 67.31 | 68.32 | 66.30 | 75.60 | 76.73 | 74.47 |
03.09.2019 | Tuesday | 67.44 | 68.45 | 66.43 | 75.71 | 76.85 | 74.57 |
04.09.2019 | Wednesday | 67.29 | 68.30 | 66.28 | 75.45 | 76.58 | 74.32 |
05.09.2019 | Thursday | 67.58 | 68.59 | 66.57 | 75.40 | 76.53 | 74.27 |
06.09.2019 | Friday | 67.76 | 68.78 | 66.74 | 75.63 | 76.76 | 74.50 |
09.09.2019 | Monday | 67.81 | 68.83 | 66.79 | 75.64 | 76.77 | 74.51 |
What determines the dollar exchange rate, factors affecting exchange rates
If you are interested in buying or selling euros or dollars, the exchange rate is an important indicator for you every day. Today, both currencies are showing significant volatility. This is primarily due to political factors.
What affects the exchange rate of the US dollar and the euro:
- decisions made by diplomats in the framework of international cooperation. Yesterday, Angela Merkel announced her readiness to reach an agreement with Russia - the euro fell slightly against the ruble. Tomorrow Donald Trump will issue a new package of sanctions - the dollar will skyrocket. Therefore, if you want to play on the currency exchange or earn money by buying/selling currencies, you need to follow the political news;
- economic situation in the country and in the world. Yes, even economic shifts within Russia affect the position of the ruble, respectively, and the exchange rate of foreign currencies against it;
- decisions of the Central Bank. It is known that at the beginning of the aggravation of relations with Europe and the United States, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation tried to balance the jumps in exchange rates against the ruble using its own resources. Today, the volatility of the dollar and the euro has slightly decreased, and the containment system of the Russian banking network has played a significant role in this.
Previous Price Forecasts
We all remember the times when the dollar exchange rate did not exceed 35 rubles, and the euro was at the level of 39-45 rubles. Unfortunately or fortunately, these rates have not appeared on the scoreboards in banks and exchange offices for several years. Below is our forecast of exchange rates for a few days before the rapid fall of the ruble. This information is presented just like that, for memory ...
Dear visitors of the site "Currency Rate Forecast for Tomorrow", we draw your attention to the fact that the forecast of the dollar and euro exchange rates is given for informational purposes only and cannot be regarded as a guide to action! We are not responsible for the accuracy of these forecasts, as exchange rates depend on a huge number of factors and even the most experienced trader, broker, financier (yes, in general, anyone) will not be able to predict the exchange rate for tomorrow, a week or a month with 100% accuracy!
U.S. dollar – official currency United States of America. Bank code- USD. Denoted by the $ sign. 1 dollar equals 100 cents. Denominations of banknotes in circulation: 100, 50, 20, 10, 5, 2 (comparatively rare banknote), 1 dollar, as well as coins of 1 dollar, 50, 25, 10, 5 and 1 cent. In addition, there are banknotes in denominations of 500, 1,000, 5,000, 10,000 and 100,000, which were previously used for mutual settlements within the Federal Reserve System, but have not been issued since 1945, and since 1969 have been officially withdrawn from circulation, since they were replaced electronic system payments. Name monetary unit, according to the most common version, comes from a medieval thaler coin minted in Germany.
Traditionally, the obverse side of the US dollar depicts the presidents and politicians of the United States. On the modern banknotes these are Benjamin Franklin - $100, Ulysses Grant - 50, Andrew Jackson - 20, Alexander Hamilton - 10, Abraham Lincoln - 5, Thomas Jefferson - 2 and George Washington - $1. The reverse side depicts historical monuments: 100 dollars - Independence Hall, where the Declaration of Independence was signed, 50 - the Capitol, 20 - the White House, 10 - the US Treasury, 5 - the Lincoln Memorial in Washington. The $1 note has a special design on the back, consisting of a double-sided image of the so-called Great Seal of the United States, used to authenticate government-issued documents and held in Washington.
It is believed that in order to counteract the printing of counterfeit dollars, the design must be changed at least once every 7-10 years. At the same time, absolutely all US banknotes issued since 1861, when money was first issued in paper form, are legal tender within the United States.
For the first time, the decision to issue US dollars was made by Congress in 1786, and in 1792 they became the main settlement currency of the state. Since 1796, the principle of a bimetallic monetary unit has been introduced, that is, both silver and gold coins were minted. At the same time, each time as a result of a change in the ratio of prices by two precious metal either one or the other coins disappeared from circulation. Until 1857, foreign money (primarily Spanish pesos and later Mexican dollars) also served as legal tender in the United States.
In 1900, the gold standard was passed. At this point, 1 dollar corresponded to 1.50463 grams of pure gold. In 1933, it was devalued by 41% for the first time as a result of the Great Depression. A troy ounce of gold was worth $35.
At the end of World War II, as a result of the Bretton Woods agreement, the dollar became the only monetary unit that was exchanged for gold, while the rates of other world currencies were tied to the US. At the same time, in the post-war years, the United States became Europe's main creditor. Thus, the US dollar became the world's accounting currency and took its place in the reserves of central banks.
However, by 1960, the chronic deficit of the US budget led to the fact that the amount of dollars owned by creditors around the world exceeded the size of the gold reserve. The crisis of 1969-70 complicated the situation. As a result, in 1971, the exchange of dollars for gold was finally terminated after a corresponding statement by President Richard Nixon.
During the 1970s, the dollar depreciated. The situation was aggravated by the crisis of 1975-76. In 1976, as a result of an international agreement, a new one was created - the Jamaican monetary system, which finally legalized the rejection of the gold backing of currencies.
The strengthening of the dollar in the 1980s put US manufacturers at a disadvantage relative to other countries. As a result, it was decided to devalue the dollar by cutting interest rates. And by 1991, it was possible to actually halve exchange rate in relation to the Japanese yen, pound and German mark.
In 1992, as a result of the fall of the British pound and the crisis in Europe, the dollar rose by almost 30%, but from April 1993 its quotes began to decline again - until 1998, when there was a significant weakening of the dollar against the Japanese yen - from 136 up to 111 within three days. This was due to the massive repatriation of funds from Japanese investors as a result of the market crisis. developing countries, including default in Russia.
1999-2001 - a period of new strengthening of the US dollar, which was stopped by the Federal Reserve, which reduced interest rates up to 2% to stimulate the economy.
The most important event for the dollar was the creation in 1999 of a single European currency, in which central banks many countries - creditors to the United States transferred part of their reserves.
For the summer of 2011, the US dollar is quoted in the range of 1.40-1.46 dollars per euro, 76-78 Japanese yen per dollar and 1.62-64 dollars per pound.
Despite competition from the euro, today the United States currency occupies a leading position in the reserves of central banks. In addition, it remains the main settlement currency between countries in international trade, and is also the base for settlements through payment systems by plastic cards outside the euro-dominated area of the European Union.
US dollar is the main currency Forex market. Transactions are carried out through this currency and the main quotes are set.
Experts' opinions regarding the future dollar are diametrically opposed. On the one hand, many believe that in the near future the collapse of the dollar financial system inevitable due to the huge external debt United States, the largest in the world. For the summer of 2011, it exceeds $14.5 trillion.
On the other hand, the stability of the dollar is based on high economic indicators. The US economy ranks first in terms of gross domestic product, ahead of China, which is in second position, almost twice. In addition, the high rate of the dollar is supported by the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System, as well as the faith of investors who keep their assets in American currency and during crises they seek to convert them into dollars, finding in US debt instruments a refuge from the elements of a market economy.
The fact that the dollar exchange rate forecast for November 2018 will not become positive is evidenced by many factors: sanctions, low the economic growth, oil prices. Experts believe that by the end of the year the ruble will continue its decline, breaking through the mark of 71.
Expert forecasts, Ministry of Finance and latest news
The domestic ruble will strengthen to the level of 63-64, but only next year. Such a forecast was made by the Ministry of Economic Development in its review until 2024. How they transmit latest news, the document says that the return national currency to the levels of 63-64 rubles will take place not earlier than the second half of next year, and then it will continue its weakening. The agency also changed the forecast for the average annual exchange rate of the American currency - if in July it was equal to 60.8 rubles, now it is 61.7 rubles. As for next year, according to the ministerial forecast, the average annual exchange rate will strengthen from 63.9 to 63.2 rubles.
The forecast also reduced the expected GDP growth rate and now it is equal to 1.8%, and the expected capital outflow will be $41 billion, which also affects investment sentiment and does not add confidence to the Russian currency.
If we talk about the short term, then sharp currency fluctuations do not add optimism. The US dollar is showing steady growth and has already exceeded the mark of 68 rubles, which makes experts' forecasts disappointing in terms of Russian ruble. Among the factors, they name:
- a currency crisis in a number of developing countries and an outflow of investors;
- anti-Russian sanctions;
- trade war with China.
In this regard, the analysts' forecast boils down to the fact that in the near future the RUB/USD pair will trade at the level of 67.3-68.6 rubles and the dollar is unlikely to give up its positions. The only positive moment for the ruble, experts call the lack of intervention by the Ministry of Finance, or rather, the suspension of purchases foreign exchange. And although this does not affect the strengthening of the ruble, it at least softens its fall a little.
How much will the dollar cost in Russia from November 1st
70 rubles per North American dollar - such exchange rate in Russia is quite expected already in next month. Anti-Russian sanctions continue to exert their pressure, withdrawal foreign investors, a ban on transactions with Russian bonds - all this contributes to the weakening of the ruble.
“If everything goes according to a very negative scenario, then we can get 74-75 rubles per dollar. If the compromise option wins, then some stabilization of the ruble exchange rate is possible,” says Alexander Egorov, who holds the position of currency strategist at TeleTrade Group.
USD/RUB exchange rate dynamics, third quarter, CBR data
date of | Well |
July 2 | 63,1313 |
July 9 | 62,7874 |
July 16 | 62,2194 |
July 23 | 63,1205 |
July 30 | 62,6228 |
August 6 | 63,5596 |
August 13 | 68,0362 |
August 20 | 67,1446 |
August 27 | 67,3015 |
September 3 | — |
September 5 | 68,3932 |
But at the same time, analysts are betting on seasonal tax periods and on oil - the growing cost of black gold can support the domestic currency in the range from 65 to 69 rubles, if not next month, then from November 1 to the end of the year.
In the meantime, the ruble has reached its two-year low: at this price - 69 rubles / dollar, the exchanges traded in March 2016. The reasons for this fall are low economic growth and the global strengthening of the US currency.
The question of what will happen to the dollar in the near future worries not only economists, but also ordinary citizens. Such interest is due, first of all, to the fact that the economic stability of Russia largely depends on the exchange rate of the American currency against the domestic ruble.
This dependence is determined by many external and internal factors, the main of which are the price of oil and gas in the world market, as well as currency quotes on stock market. What forecasts do experts make regarding the US dollar for 2018, let's try to figure it out in this review.
What is the trend of the dollar in the near future?
In 2017, the US dollar appreciated significantly. This was influenced by several events at once:
- approval by the House of Representatives of the tax reform adopted in the Senate on December 19 last year;
- increase in the rate of the Federal Reserve System (FRS);
- implementation of the Fed's project aimed at reducing the cash dollar supply;
- US President Donald Trump signed a bill to ease the taxation of citizens.
In addition, in European countries in Lately there is an economic recession associated with a crisis within the conglomerate (the intentions of some states to withdraw from the European Union have been announced), an increase in unemployment, and an influx of a large number of Muslim refugees from the warring powers. All this contributes to the depreciation of the euro and at the same time the strengthening of the dollar in the global financial market.
Dollar exchange rate forecast for the first quarter of 2018
As the demand for dollar mass in the world continues to increase, the United States currency will only strengthen in the near future. This is exactly the forecast made by reputable international experts for the spring of 2018. As for the dollar-ruble ratio, the oil price is considered to be the main factor of influence here, since Russia is one of the largest suppliers of “black gold” in the world.
Predictions for the current spring based on the forecasts of leading stock analysts (the estimated cost of 1 dollar in rubles is indicated):
- March - 58.35
- April - 59.87
- May - 61.23
At the same time, some experts predict that with the victory of V.V. Putin in the presidential elections on March 18, 2018, the growth of the domestic currency or its stabilization is also possible. Which of the financiers was right, the near future will show.
Expert forecast for summer 2018
The opinions of economists regarding the exchange rate of the RUB / USD pair for the summer of 2018 were divided:
- Some experts predict the quotation of the domestic currency at a level not exceeding 56 rubles. per dollar.
- Other experts say that the US money exchange rate in the summer will fluctuate in the range from 57 to 62 rubles.
By months, it may look like this (the estimated cost of 1 dollar in rubles is indicated):
- June - 61.89
- July - 62.93
- August - 60.88
Dollar exchange rate forecast for autumn 2018
The forecast for the fall for the Russian currency against the US currency will largely depend not only on the price of oil and gas, but also on how fruitful this season will be. Economic analysts make the following predictions for this period (the estimated cost of 1 dollar in rubles is indicated):
- September - 62.98
- October - 61.25
- November
$ exchange rate at the end of 2018
The end of 2018 will be marked by the following important financial events.
The Russian currency was unable to keep the upward momentum against the American counterpart. Results of ruble pairs on the results of Wednesday — ₽61.3300/USD And ₽71.7000/EUR. The positions of the US currency became stronger by 12.0 kopecks, while the value of the Old World currency “dipped” by 36.7 kopecks.
The energy market, which received special attention yesterday, showed an upward trend ($79.80 at the close), but this morning the situation has changed ($79.52 at 07:15 Moscow time).
The key reason for the moderate weakening of the barrel is the data of the US Department of Energy on the accelerated growth of energy reserves in the US (+5.778 million barrels instead of -1.567 million included in quotations). The department's statistics turned out to be diametrically opposed to the report of the American Petroleum Institute released a day earlier (-1.3 million barrels).
The results of the two-day OPEC summit that ended yesterday help the “black gold” maintain an acceptable position. According to the final release, the cartel members in April fulfilled the agreement to cut the production of the strategic energy carrier by 172% and will return to the consideration of production quotas at a meeting in June.
Other significant events in the form of "minutes" of the Fed and statistics on business activity in the US could not have a critical impact on the course (the results of the reports mentioned were close to investors' expectations). The main driver of the behavior of the ruble in the remaining days of the week, according to bankers, will be the mood of the players in relation to "developing" currencies. Other sources of influence on the course are oil prices and the activity of corporate taxpayers on the eve of Friday's "peak" transfers to the budget.
— At the beginning of the week, most EM-currencies were able to demonstrate growth against the backdrop of declining Treasury yields. However, further strengthening of "emerging" currencies is far from obvious. For now, we focus on the interval ₽60.80–62.80/USD. We believe that the main source of influence on the rate is the general mood of traders regarding EM currencies. Other factors - taxable period and the dynamics of commodity quotations are currently secondary, - commented the analysts of Promsvyazbank.
Currency strategists at Zenit Bank, for their part, note the decisive influence tax payments to the course.
- At the end of the week, the ruble will "enjoy" support from exporters ("peak" of the May season tax payments falls on Friday). The external background for the ruble remains neutral. Oil prices, despite a slight correction, remain high. Yields on US Treasuries interrupted growth, which has a positive effect on the positions of high-yield currencies.<…>At the end of Friday's tax payments, internal support for the ruble will weaken, representatives of the credit institution warn.
The forecast of the currency strategist of the financial institution Vladimir Evstifeev for Friday evening is ₽63.00/USD.
Binbank, meanwhile, expects the growth of the ruble on expensive oil and the absorption of ruble liquidity initiated by the Central Bank. The forecast for the end of the week, voiced by the currency strategist of the credit institution Anton Pokatovich, is ₽61.90-62.80.
Analysts at Vostochny Bank link the immediate prospects of the ruble with geopolitics and the US unemployment statistics released today. Konstantin Kochergin, an expert from the financial institute, did not predict the prospects for RUR/USD before the publication of the relevant data.