Forecasts for the dollar in Belarus. Currency Forecast
V recent times the Russian ruble is jumping either negative or positive with a fairly large amplitude. Meanwhile, in the basket of currencies by which the rate is determined Belarusian ruble, it takes 50%. At the same time, the dollar exchange rate is now mostly falling, while the euro is growing, albeit slowly, but steadily. What threatens us with such fluctuations? What factors can weaken the Belarusian ruble? Will the promised salary of 1,000 rubles by the end of the year affect the rate? "AiF" sorted it out together with the experts.
External factor
The trade dependence of Belarus on Russia has not decreased, so it is still important for us what is happening in the Russian foreign exchange market, - believes financial consultant "TeletradeBel" Zhanna KULAKOVA... - In 2017, the Russian ruble is strengthening - since the beginning of the year, its rate has grown against the basket of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation by about 4%, while oil is now even cheaper than at the beginning of the year.
The main reason for the growth of the rate Russian ruble has become a speculative factor - many large investors have invested in bonds federal loan seduced by high rate... In order for a foreigner to buy such bonds, he first needs to buy Russian rubles. It turns out that the demand for Russian rubles has grown significantly, because of this, the ruble has strengthened, the expert believes.
Russian officials and financial specialists many times over the course of several months they predicted weakening of the ruble, but this has not happened yet. There is an impression that in neighboring country there is some confrontation between the Central Bank, which sees nothing wrong with a strong ruble, and the relevant ministries, which would like to see a slightly weaker national currency. Taking into account that speculative growth is not the most reliable factor, I think that in the medium term we can still see the weakening of the Russian ruble. If the oil market does not present unpleasant surprises, this weakening will be very moderate and, most likely, will not exceed 5-10%, - analyzes Zhanna Kulakova.
The specialist believes that this will be reflected in the Belarusian market as well: we will see a depreciation of the Russian ruble and an increase in the exchange rates of the dollar and euro. It should be remembered that the Belarusian ruble cannot endlessly strengthen against the Russian one - this will harm exports. According to the financial consultant, the rate of the Russian ruble in Belarus is unlikely to fall below 3.2 Belarusian rubles for 100 Russian rubles for a long time.
If this forecast comes true, then with the current dollar / euro exchange rate (about 1.12) and with the Russian ruble depreciating in the foreign market by 5% in Belarus, the Russian ruble rate will fall to 3.2, the dollar will rise to about 1.88, and euro - will rise in price to 2.10. If the Russian ruble weakens by 10%, then in Belarus the rate of the Russian ruble will fall to 3.2, the dollar will rise to about 1.97, and the euro - to 2.2.
Although in practice, I think we will see the euro grow against the dollar on the world market, as a result of which the dollar rate will be slightly lower than that given in the forecast, and the euro rate - slightly higher.
No pressure
Zhanna Kulakova believes that there is no internal pressure on foreign exchange rates now - a significant surplus of currency is formed on the market, which is bought out by the state to refinance the national currency debt and replenish the gold reserves. As a result, the demand and supply of the currency are balanced.
An experience last months showed that maintaining currency stability is now very important for the authorities. Even at the moment when the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development was delaying the loan tranche, there was a need to pay off a huge debt for gas supplies to Russia, as well as to service other foreign currency debts on schedule, the foreign exchange market did not budge, the specialist noted.
As for other indicators money market Belarus, by the end of 2017 inflation will not exceed 7%, and interest rates in the economy will decrease by another 1-3 percentage points, the expert said.
Until the end of 2017, according to Zhanna Kulakova, noticeable shifts in the foreign exchange market of Belarus can be caused only by external factors.
Real income
Financial consultant "TeletradeBel" Mikhail GRACHEV believes that even if by the end of the year the real incomes of the population in Belarus grow significantly, this is unlikely to affect the foreign exchange market. The expert suggests that people will spend money on high-value purchases, and not purchase currency.
The forecast of the dollar exchange rate for 2017 in Belarus, as well as in other countries, depends on many indicators and factors, thereby affecting the economic development of the country and the well-being of the population. At present, the situation in the country relative to this direction is more stable compared to the others, but, nevertheless, it causes some excitement, since everyone will agree with the opinion that vital priorities and aspects directly depend on the dollar exchange rate. That is why, at present, in the media one can hear quite important and sometimes completely contradictory opinions. But, nevertheless, first of all, one should pay attention to the most important forecasts, on the basis of which and from which politicians are based in their decisions.
Forecast course analysts in the near future.
One of the most important and leading opinions, perhaps, is that in the next few years, starting from 2016 and up to 2020, we should expect nothing more than a gradual increase in the value of the Belarusian currency basket. It should be noted that it is this scenario of the development of the situation that is laid down and is the main one in the program of social economic development.
What is this program, and what does it consist of? If you carefully study and consider this program, you should highlight the following figures and statistics contained in it and presented in it regarding the value of the currency basket.
- - 2016 - 3,432 rubles;
- - 2017 - 3,740 rubles;
- - 2018 - 4,001 rubles;
- - 2019 - 4,242 rubles;
- - 2020 - 4,452 rubles.
This is what concerns the Russian ruble. But it should be noted that if the stability of the ruble exchange rate remains stable, then a weakening will be observed significantly national currency to the dollar. In other words, the following picture of prices against the dollar exchange rate is assumed.
- - 2016 - 16 810 rubles;
- - 2017 - 17,735 rubles;
- - 2018 - 18 420 rubles;
- - 2019 - 19,255 rubles;
- - 2020 - 20 165 rubles.
But, minor fluctuations in the numerical parameters of the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble to the dollar are possible and probable, since everything depends on external factors that play an important and essential role. It is worth noting that, according to the National Bank of Belarus, throughout this period of time, the authorities will try to adhere to a tight monetary credit policy, which, if successful, will help curb the rate of devaluation of the Belarusian ruble against the currency basket. But one should also not forget about the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate against the US dollar, which is also of significant importance.
Today it is well known that the program of the National Bank of Belarus is designed and directed towards the solution of the next very significant and significant task. In other words, all actions will be aimed at moving away from the previous targeting regime for the dollar exchange rate and, as a result, gradually move to the use and application of the mechanism for pegging the Belarusian ruble exchange rate to a basket of currencies.
But, this is not the one that exists today, but, to a completely new model, where the share of the Russian ruble is 40%, but the share of the US dollar together with the euro is only 30%.
It is this policy, if successful, will allow in the future to become independent of the course foreign currency USA.
What will happen to the ruble?
This is another issue that deserves special attention. Although, it should be said right away that there are practically no reasons for worries, since in this direction there is a relative balance and calmness. But, according to the statements of the National Bank, the exchange rate of the Belarusian rubles and the dynamics of their development are also directly dependent and determined in accordance with world oil prices, supply and demand in the domestic market, and the exchange rate of the Russian ruble. And, consequently, it is not worth giving any accurate forecasts regarding the "bunnies", because the situation is still developing and moving along the optimal and most favorable path of development of the country's economy.
Dollar exchange rate forecast for 2017 in belarus, if you know it exactly and before the smallest details will help many to decide and understand that it is best to give priority in choosing a currency to a more stable currency, therefore, it will help Belarusians make the right choice regarding deposits, thereby avoiding unnecessary excitement around this monetary unit.
Given the relative stability of external factors, the dollar in Belarus in 2017 should not cost more than 2 rubles 22 kopecks.
The population this year, which was not observed before, is massively selling foreign currency. A significant excess of the supply of foreign currency over the demand for it ensured the stability of the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble. What will happen next? The authorities have prepared two scenarios for the development of events in the foreign exchange market, Naviny.by writes.
Heading towards the end of 2017: the authorities have made bets
The Belarusian parliament has already started considering the forecast documents for 2017. It is clear from the announced budget parameters that the authorities do not officially forecast a large devaluation of the Belarusian ruble next year. However, there are options.
When assessing the dollar exchange rate for 2017, the authorities proceeded primarily from external conditions. Internal factors on the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble in the near future should have, judging by the plans of the authorities, an extremely beneficial effect.
According to BelaPAN, in 2017 the National Bank plans to maintain the current monetary policy aimed at limiting the money supply. The average broad money supply is projected to grow by 14%. Accordingly, there is no reason to expect that uncontrolled emission will lead to a sharp weakening of the Belarusian ruble.
Also, if the plans of the monetary authorities are implemented, the behavior of the population should have a positive impact on the dynamics of the Belarusian ruble exchange rate.
According to BelaPAN, In 2017, the authorities expect that on the part of the population there will be a steady excess of the supply of foreign currency over demand, and this, among other things, will contribute to an increase in gold and foreign exchange reserves by half a billion dollars.
At the same time, spend gold reserves it is not planned to maintain the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble - foreign exchange intervention the authorities intend, in exceptional cases, to smooth out short-term fluctuations in the exchange rate.
Thus, if the intentions of the monetary authorities are to be believed, the accumulation of devaluation potential as a result of artificially maintaining the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble should not occur.
In general, there are no internal factors for a sharp weakening of the Belarusian ruble exchange rate.
But external factors, according to experts from government agencies, will have an impact on the foreign exchange market.
According to information BelaPAN, the estimates of the authorities indicate that with an average annual world oil price of $ 35 per barrel, the dollar itself at the end of 2017 may cost 2.21 Belarusian rubles. At the same time, if a more favorable scenario is realized and $ 45 per barrel of black gold in the world market will be given next year, then the dollar exchange rate may reach 2.12 rubles by the end of 2017. Let us remind you that today the dollar is worth 1.96 rubles in Belarus.
The population does not threaten the ruble
Deputy Finance Minister Yuri Seliverstov told the House of Representatives this week that the budget for next year has been prepared taking into account the average annual oil price of $ 35 per barrel. To take this conservative scenario, which is close to the pessimistic, as a basis, the authorities decided to avoid having to sequester the budget in 2017, as in 2016.
Meanwhile, this week the price of a barrel of oil on the world market exceeded $ 45 and even approached $ 50. The rise in world oil prices that occurred in August has already led to the fact that Russia, the main trading partner of Belarus, began to think about revising the forecast oil prices upward.
So, the Minister of Economic Development of Russia Alexei Ulyukaev said this week that the department, along with the baseline scenario ($ 40 per barrel), sees a realistic scenario ("base plus") for the development of events in 2017, which assumes an increase in oil prices to 50 dollars per barrel.
« If oil on the world market next year rises in price, as some foreign experts expect today, to $ 50-60 per barrel, then against this background the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble may strengthen.", - says Valery Polkhovsky, senior analyst of the Forex Club forex broker.
It is known that the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble today strongly depends on the exchange rate Russian currency... According to the estimates of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia, with the world oil price of $ 40 per barrel American currency in 2017 it will cost 65 Russian rubles, and with an average annual oil price of $ 50 per barrel - 61 rubles.
« If the exchange rate in Russia is about 60 Russian rubles per dollar, the American currency in Belarus may be even cheaper than it is now. In this case, the official dollar rate may drop to the mark of 1 ruble 85 kopecks", - suggested in an interview with a reporter BelaPAN Valery Polkhovsky.
Analysts of the Belarusian financial market are confident that the National Bank will not influence the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate, which will be formed under the influence of external factors.
« Until 2014, attempts were made in Belarus to fix the dollar exchange rate at a certain level, which led to the inevitable devaluation of the national currency. Since the beginning of 2015, no one has been targeting the dollar exchange rate in Belarus, so its dynamics is a reflection of the exchange rate values that naturally develop in the market.", - says Vadim Iosub, senior analyst of the Alpari forex broker.
In his opinion, given the relative stability of external factors, the dollar in Belarus in 2017 should not cost more than the above-mentioned 2 rubles 22 kopecks.
« We have ended both the presidential and parliamentary elections, therefore, for the sake of solving populist tasks, no one will definitely increase the income of the population. Accordingly, there is no reason to expect that the population will have an increased demand for foreign currency, which will have a negative impact on the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble, ”- Vadim Iosub believes.
He recalled that this year the population is massively selling foreign exchange reserves, and since the growth of real disposable income of the population for 2017 is planned only by 1.2%, it can be expected that Belarusians will continue to surrender foreign currency in 2017 to maintain their standard of living. ...
“If the plans of the National Bank to limit the money supply are implemented, if salaries grow at a slow pace, it is very likely that the devaluation, if any, will be moderate. Such a forecast by the authorities looks plausible ", - summed up Vadim Iosub.
became a reason to assess the accuracy of the forecast given by experts a year ago regarding the exchange rate. For the first time, the assumptions of absolutely all analysts turned out to be higher the officially established rate (1.9585 rubles per dollar). For the next year, forecasters have less pessimism. Most agree that the adjustment will be at the desired inflation rate of 9-10%. At the same time, optimism is based on the amendment that the authorities will not turn on the printing press to reach the salary of "all 500".According to the established New Year tradition, experts were asked to predict the dollar exchange rate against the Belarusian ruble as of December 31, 2017.
Sergey Mukhanov, director of the investment company "Volat Capital":
- In 2017, the National Bank will continue to pursue monetary policy in the monetary targeting regime, which provides for control over the money supply. Increase in wide money supply forecasted at 14% plus / minus 2 percentage points. Accordingly, the effect of the issue of money on the exchange rate will be limited. The course will be formed under the influence of market factors of supply and demand.
The main groups influencing the ratio of supply and demand for foreign currency will be the population, subjects of foreign trade operations - exporters and importers - and the state itself.
For 11 months of 2016, the population sold almost $ 1.8 billion worth of currencies on a net basis. Over the same period, the volume of foreign currency deposits of individuals decreased by $ 764 million. The sale of foreign currency by the population is associated primarily with the desire to maintain the usual standard of living against the backdrop of a decrease in real incomes. Most likely, this trend will continue in 2017, but it can be assumed that not on such a scale. Realization comes that the crisis can be protracted and there is no need to count on a quick rebound. Nevertheless, there is a certain reserve: the balance of deposits of individuals in foreign currency as of December 1 was about $ 7.45 billion. Thus, the operations of the population in the foreign exchange market in 2017 will support the ruble exchange rate.
In 2017, the repayment of foreign exchange public debt the country needs to allocate about $ 2.3 billion, for services - $ 785 million. It is this position that can exert the most significant pressure on the exchange rate. At the same time, next year it is planned to attract funds in the amount of $ 1.86 billion (including $ 800 million through a new issue of Eurobonds, $ 700 million - attracting three tranches of the EFSD loan and 360 million - through the issuance of domestic foreign currency government bonds), and 75% of the funds raised are planned to be used to pay off the debt, and 25% - to increase international reserves. Even if the plans to raise funds are implemented in full, it is obvious that the amount received will not be enough to pay off and service the public debt in full, and it will be necessary to use other sources. One of which will be the aforementioned purchase of currency from the population. But given the fact that the volume of net sales of foreign currency by the population will not be as large as in 2016, it is critically important to maintain a positive foreign trade balance.
To maintain the competitiveness of Belarusian exports, it is advisable to prevent the strengthening of real rate Belarusian ruble against a basket of currencies. Thus, it can be assumed that the ruble is depreciating against the basket, at least by the level of forecasted inflation - 9%. The ratio of the Belarusian ruble to the dollar will largely depend on the ratio of the currencies in the basket (dollar, euro, Russian ruble) in relation to each other. The market is expecting further strengthening of the dollar against the euro (and this will put pressure on the Belarusian ruble against the dollar), the ratio of the Russian ruble to the dollar largely depends on world oil prices. A significant rise in oil prices (above $ 60 per barrel) is unlikely, since American shale oil producers will actively enter the market at these levels, which will increase supply and limit the "price ceiling". On the other hand, if the agreement reached by OPEC and the acceding countries on production cuts is respected, this will have a supportive effect on the price level, which can gain a foothold at current levels (about $ 55 per barrel). At the same time, given the current oil prices and the rate of the RF budget revenues, it is not enough for its implementation; accordingly, a slight increase in the USD / RUB rate can be assumed - possibly up to 63-65 Russian rubles per dollar. As for the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble to the Russian one, we are entering 2017 with a very comfortable level in terms of the competitiveness of Belarusian products at Russian market- almost 3.22 rubles per 100 Russian rubles. You can even say that this is a course with a small margin. Even with an average exchange rate of 3.06 in October, the balance of trade in goods with the Russian Federation showed a significant improvement. Although there are no more recent data on foreign trade. It can be assumed that the current course will lead to even better results.
There is an assumption that, taking into account the external debt repayment schedule, the temptation to keep the real exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble in relation to the Russian one at the achieved level will be quite high. Taking into account the forecast inflation in Belarus at 9%, and in Russia - 4%, the nominal BYN / RUB rate by the end of 2017 may be approximately 3.35-3.38 Belarusian rubles per 100 Russian rubles. Accordingly, the forecasted exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble against the dollar, with some strengthening of the dollar against the Russian ruble, as mentioned above, may amount to 2.11-2.20. I think the most probable level is 2.18.
Thus, the external situation in 2017 is expected to be moderately favorable for Belarus, but it should be used exclusively for macroeconomic stabilization and in no case fall into populist measures, including in terms of unreasonable growth. average salary.
Vadim Iosub, senior analyst at Alpari forex company in Minsk:
- In my forecast, I proceed from several premises. The currency basket will rise in price approximately in proportion to the inflation forecast by the authorities - by 9%. The behavior of the individual currencies that make up it will depend on how their cross rates fluctuate in world markets. The euro has every chance of catching up with the dollar. Crude oil is likely to remain in the range of $ 50-55 per barrel of Brent. In Russia, about 67 rubles will be given per dollar. Under these assumptions, by the end of next year, the dollar (like the euro) will cost 2.25 rubles. This forecast may come true if the current monetary policy of the National Bank continues, but there is also a risk factor. These are calls to raise the average salary to $ 500 next year, "no matter what." If you really do not look at anything and, in particular, at the growth of labor productivity, you will have to turn on the printing press. And if you turn on the printing press, then both inflation and foreign exchange rates will be much worse.
Katerina Bornukova, expert of the Belarusian Economic Research and Education Center BEROC:
- With the transition to a floating exchange rate, forecasts become duller and more monotonous. Most likely, no significant shocks, either for the better or for the worse, await us, which means that the exchange rate will largely be determined by 10% inflation. I will also lay a small influence on the fact that next year the Belarusians will cease to surrender currency at such a rate, which means that the rate will drop by a little more than 10 percent of inflation. it baseline scenario... The option is not excluded when debt problems in the economy and banking system as well as significant external debt will lead to a currency crisis, then the rate will be difficult to predict. But I think that even in this unlikely scenario, the dollar is unlikely to be worth more than three rubles.
Alexander Mukha, analyst of the research group BusinessForecast.by:
- The main factor for the stability of the internal foreign exchange market Belarus in 2016 is a large-scale net sale of foreign exchange by the population.
So, in January-November 2016, individuals sold on a net basis $ 1.795 billion (including cashless transactions), non-residents - $ 414.8 million, business entities - $ 46.4 million. At the same time, the structure of net demand for foreign exchange on the part of the population in January-November 2016 was as follows: net sale cash currency- $ 2.273 billion and conversion of ruble deposits into foreign currency deposits on a net basis - minus $ 478.1 million.
As a result, the net supply of foreign exchange from outside individuals and non-residents ($ 2.210 billion in January-November 2016) allowed, together with other factors, to increase Belarus' gold and foreign exchange reserves to $ 4.838 billion as of December 1, 2016, even despite significant payments on external and domestic debt obligations of the state in foreign currency.
At the same time, against this background, there was a local strengthening of the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble against major foreign currencies.
Thus, the population made a significant contribution to ensuring the stability of the domestic foreign exchange market in the outgoing year.
By the way, foreign currency deposits of individuals in January-November 2016 decreased by $ 764 million (or 9.3%), to $ 7.449 billion as of December 1. In general, foreign exchange savings of the population in banks (foreign exchange deposits, deposits in precious metals and foreign currency bonds of banks) in January-November 2016 decreased by $ 520.9 million (5.9%), to $ 8.263 billion as of December 1.
Taking this into account, the volume of foreign currency in cash that the population, figuratively speaking, additionally extracted from under the "mattress" in January-November 2016 can be estimated at at least $ 1.753 billion on a net basis. Obviously, with such a large-scale net sale of cash currency by individuals, the government and the National Bank of Belarus had the opportunity to wait a little with the same loan from the IMF. However, the question arises as to whether the population will be able to provide the same inflow of cash in the official economic turnover next year.
One of the most important reasons for the increase in the net supply of foreign exchange on the part of individuals was the desire to maintain an acceptable level of consumption in the face of a noticeable drop in real money income. According to our calculations, the average accrued wages of Belarusian workers (excluding micro-organizations and small organizations without departmental subordination) in January-November 2016 decreased compared to the same period of the previous year by 14.2% - from $ 415.9 to $ 357 (when calculating the weighted average rate of the Belarusian ruble against the dollar was used: in January-November 2015 - 1.603424 rubles per dollar (taking into account denomination), and in January-November 2016 - 2.0029 rubles).
In this case, the accrued fund wages over 11 months, it decreased even more - by $ 2.302 billion (or 16.9%) to $ 11.349 billion. The decrease in the wage fund is associated not only with the fall in the average wage, but also with the reduction in the analyzed period of the average number of employees by 94,254 thousand people. According to our estimates, next year the population will spend more cautiously on their foreign exchange savings and more actively reduce consumer spending as compared to the current year. As a result, the net supply of foreign currency in cash from individuals in 2017 may significantly decrease, which will lead to an acceleration in the devaluation of the Belarusian ruble against major foreign currencies.
According to our forecast, by the end of 2017, the official exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble against the dollar may fall to 2.25-2.35 rubles per dollar (the point estimate is 2.3 rubles per dollar), which will increase the price competitiveness of Belarusian exporters on foreign markets (primarily in the Russian market).
Vladimir Artyugin, independent analyst:- The defining factor in 2017 for the whole world will be long-overdue changes in the global financial and commodity markets. Planned growth discount rate Fed will provoke a crisis on financial markets followed by a fall in commodity prices. As a result of the fall in oil prices to about $ 30 per barrel, the Russian ruble will devalue to 90-100 rubles per dollar. In turn, this will provoke a devaluation of the Belarusian ruble. Taking into account the current ratio of currencies and measures to be taken by the Belarusian authorities, this means a corridor of 2.5-3 Belarusian rubles per dollar. Since Belarus does not plan to launch the printing press, and taking into account luck recent years the course will be closer to the lower border of the corridor. My forecast is 2.7 rubles per dollar.
Yaroslav Romanchuk, executive director of the analytical center "Strategy":
- My prediction is based on the fact that Belarusian authorities the relatively good monetary policy of 2016 is unlikely to be replicated. Not because the National Bank will relax and rest on its laurels, but because the forces that require an increase in the volume of concessional loans will become much stronger. It is highly likely that Alexander Lukashenko will solidarize with them, especially if he gets tired of waiting for a loan from the IMF. Spoiled relations with Russia, loss of price competitiveness of producers, gross external debt in the region of 90% of GDP ( October 1 was 78%. — Approx. TUT.BY) and the need to spend $ 5 billion on its maintenance, a sharp increase in bad assets in the banking system and the depletion of the population's foreign exchange resources to support the exchange rate - this is very favorable conditions to revive inflation and devaluation taxes.
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