Analysts' opinions and forecasts on how the ruble will behave. What will happen to the ruble, dollar and euro in November? Currency Forecast Ruble Exchange Rate Forecast for November
After the end of the elections, the situation foreign exchange market can change dramatically. The experts' forecast for November 2016 assumes a significant depreciation of the ruble, which is associated with the desire of the Central Bank to reduce the budget deficit.
At the same time, the scale of future devaluation will depend on fluctuations in the oil market.
180 degree turn
The period of stability for the Russian currency is approaching its end. Experts point to several factors at once that may cause a new wave of ruble devaluation.
The end of the elections allowed the Central Bank to change its policy. If earlier the regulator withdrew excess ruble liquidity from financial system, now the Central Bank intends to return to using repo transactions. As a result, a huge resource will enter the market - more than 1 trillion rubles, which will lead to a weakening of the position of the Russian currency. Wherein external factors and the state of the budget will have a negative impact on the dynamics of the ruble in the short term.
The Central Bank carried out an infusion of a similar scale at the end of 2014, when the value of the dollar soared to 80 rubles. At the same time, the regulator provided the market with about 900 billion rubles, which is significantly less than the expected injections of this year.
The representative of Grand Capital Sergey Kozlovsky notes that the actions of the regulator were predictable. Until the end of the elections, the main task of the Central Bank was to stabilize the foreign exchange market, for which ruble liquidity was limited. After the end of the electoral process, another task comes to the fore - balancing the budget.
Low oil prices and a relatively strong ruble have led to a reduction in budget revenues. As a result, the budget deficit has increased, financing of which has become a real problem for the government. According to the Ministry of Finance, the funds Reserve fund will be exhausted at the beginning of next year.
Promsvyazbank analyst Alexander Plyutov predicts a weakening of the Russian currency to 70 rubles / dollar. Saxo Bank experts do not exclude an increase in quotations to 75-80 rubles per dollar, if prices for “black gold” fall to 40 dollars per barrel.
The most pessimistic scenarios imply a more significant collapse of the domestic currency. In addition to budget crisis, the government cannot restore positive momentum economic growth... As a result, the dollar rate may renew its historical maximum in the near future.
To new heights
The government has already repeatedly stated about overcoming the consequences of the crisis. Representatives of the Ministry of Economic Development note the recovery in GDP growth and a gradual slowdown in inflation. However, experts are skeptical about such prospects, expecting a continuation of the recession. At the same time, the fall may reach record levels.
Despite the optimistic forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development, expert Vladislav Zhukovsky predicts new shocks for the domestic economy. Eight sectors of the economy are in crisis at once. In such conditions, low rates of economic growth will persist for 3-5 years. In addition, the stability of the domestic currency, which will remain tied to the trends in the oil market, will be under attack. At the same time, officials do not have real tools to radically change the situation, the previous anti-crisis programs of the government have shown their complete inefficiency. Also, there is no money in the budget for such initiatives.
Stepan Demura is also sure that the crisis Russian economy is only gaining momentum. Capital outflow and structural problems of the domestic development model will result in a devaluation of the ruble to 125 rubles / dollar. At the same time, the available reserves will clearly not be enough to support the Russian currency.
Apart from internal problems, experts admit a new collapse of prices in the oil market. The implementation of negative forecasts will create additional threats to the ruble exchange rate in November 2016.
Competition between key exporters of “black gold” is putting pressure on prices. According to analysts' forecasts, against the backdrop of a slowdown in global consumption, oil prices could fall to $ 30 / bbl. In such conditions, the government will be forced to weaken the position of the Russian currency, which will help smooth out the shock to the economy and budget.
In November 2016, the Russian currency will face another shock. The growing budget deficit and the lack of reserves for financing it will lead to a weakening of the ruble to 70-80 rubles / dollar. The end of the elections will allow the Central Bank to increase the volume of ruble liquidity in the market, which will affect currency quotes.
The most pessimistic scenarios, which imply a new economic collapse and a decline in oil prices, allow for the devaluation of the Russian currency to 125 rubles / dollar.
Attitude predictions Russian ruble and the dollar really interests people. Many Russians tend to follow the course closely, realizing what changes may occur in the near future. At the end of 2014, the entire public was agitated by changes in the exchange rate, but then the fuse passed.
In addition, people have run out of accumulation of finances. Currently, the exchange rate has more or less stabilized, resulting in a tolerant attitude towards changes. Moreover, the dollar is trying to go down. Can we expect such changes in 2017?
Is it possible to make optimistic forecasts
Government authorities are optimistic about the exchange rate. At the same time, in 2015, it was necessary to freeze the indexation of salaries and pensions, and reduce other important expenses. How will the situation develop in the future? In fact, in 2017, the ruble / dollar exchange rate should not be too high.
Experts are confident that by November 2017 Russia will slowly come to life, as the peak stage economic crisis overcome. Now we can only expect an improvement in the situation. For this reason, it is possible to predict the strengthening of the national currency, although it was previously pegged to the dollar.
The Russian ruble reacts to changes in oil prices, but these changes turn out to be insignificant. It is important to note that many are convinced that the budget was changed, as they managed to set the oil price at $ 60 per barrel. Thanks to such changes, the national currency should strengthen, and the situation with the budget will only get better. With a favorable development of the situation, the rate should be about 50 rubles.
What are the opinions of experienced experts?
Actually Russian experts are already afraid to report the forecast regarding the exchange rate. Various opinions were expressed before, but almost all of them turned out to be erroneous. Experts predicted a greater fall and stabilization of the Russian ruble. In addition, different figures were named, including 100 and 200 rubles. When such information was communicated, the impression was that in fact such changes could occur.
Despite this, the ruble temporarily slowed down, and then began to gradually descend. The rates are currently tolerable. Experts can predict the options for the development of the situation, but they try not to give exact numbers. Many analysts are confident that the ruble will remain at the same level by November 2017.
Why the exchange rate turns out to be unstable
The forecast even for 2017 remains unstable. In addition, it is impossible to predict when the situation with national currency will improve significantly. The dollar is influenced by several factors at once. If they persist for a long time, one cannot even count on improving the situation.
- International sanctions that the Russian Federation had to face.
- Rising inflation.
- Geopolitical problems faced by the world community.
- Military conflict in Ukraine.
All of the above factors actually have a significant impact on the Russian economy. The combination of factors led to the fact that the dollar soared up significantly. At the same time, there is still hope for an improvement in the situation.
At the same time, you need to be prepared for the fact that it is the dollar that will face problems. How can problems manifest themselves?
- Unstable US economy.
- Debt increase.
- Military operations in various countries of the world.
The position of the dollar on the world market undoubtedly influences the ruble-dollar exchange rate.
What forecasts do foreign experts have?
Foreign experts are trying to closely follow the ongoing events, because they cannot stand aside. Many experts are convinced that 1 dollar should cost 45 - 58 rubles, depending on what the factors are.
In fact, these forecasts fully correspond to the official promises of the RF Government and prove that the situation is capable of stabilizing. Accurate predictions can only be made in November 2017.
December is always a difficult month for the Russian currency. The end of the year is the time when Russian business pays off foreign debts, debts are given in foreign currencies, and for this you need to buy it on the stock exchange. The increased volume of exchange of rubles for dollars and euros affects the exchange rates, and at the end of the year, they traditionally grow. Let's get acquainted with the forecast of the euro exchange rate for December 2017 - what will happen to the single European currency, how much the euro will cost by the new year.
What will affect the euro exchange rate in Russia in December
The factors that will potentially positively or negatively affect the value of the Russian ruble against world currencies are discussed in the article on the dollar exchange rate in December. Let us recall the main ones.
For the growth of the dollar against the ruble, they say, in particular, the expected intra-American events that will lead to the strengthening of the dollar (tax reform, Fed policy, including growth key rate). The ruble, in turn, is supported by high oil prices, which reached their peak by the end of the year.
If we return to the forecast of the euro rate, then the European currency, by tradition, follows the dollar. The euro-ruble exchange rate is largely determined by the cross-rate of the euro and the dollar, and in Russia the ratio of the two major currencies roughly corresponds to the world one.
If you look at the forecast of the cross-rate of the euro and the dollar for December, then, in particular, the experts of the analytical agency APECON expect that on average throughout the month this figure will be around the 1.20 mark. The ratio of the euro and the dollar will be stable, analysts do not expect any swings.
Euro exchange rate forecast for December
Let's turn to the forecast for the euro exchange rate for December from the experts of the same APECON. As in the case of the dollar, in general they do not expect big problems for the Russian ruble at the end of the year, despite numerous fears and expectations:
- Course on December 1 will be approximately 68.85 rubles.
- 10 december euro will cost 68.79 rubles.
- TO December 20 European currency will rise to 69.73 rubles.
- Well on new year holidays - about 70.62 rubles.
Yes, in December we should expect growth in both the dollar and the euro, but this growth should not be catastrophic. Throughout 2017, the ruble has repeatedly surprised with its rather good health, and December should not be an exception. Against the backdrop of relatively expensive oil Russian currency will have to cope with the pressure of the end of the year.
On the eve of the last month of autumn in Russia, we can say that for most of the year, the Russian currency was able to surprise analysts. Contrary to the forecasts of the same government, which laid the dollar rate at the end of the year, significantly higher than 60 rubles, the ruble is currently holding close to 57.0 - 57.5 per dollar. What will happen to the dollar in November, will the ruble continue to strengthen or, on the contrary, will begin to weaken against the American currency? last month autumn in our country.
Dollar exchange rate forecast for the last week of October
On the eve of the last week of October, the US dollar is worth 57.51 rubles in Russia. According to analysts, at the end of the month due to another tax period, stable oil prices, as well as continued interest foreign investors against government bonds of Russia, the ruble may strengthen a little more.
Such a strengthening occurs even against the background of the fact that the US dollar, in principle, is itself on an upward trend due to the expectations of an imminent increase in the key rate by the US Federal Reserve System.
The Russian ruble is the only currency developing countries, which does not lose in the second half of October against the dollar.
Experts from the Moscow analytical agency APECON expect that by Friday, October 27, the dollar rate will drop below 57 rubles - to about 56.97 rubles per unit of American currency. We spoke in more detail about the forecast of the dollar rate for the last October week in.
Dollar Forecast for November 2017
Some analysts point out that November may not be as successful a month for the ruble as October. October 27, next Friday, is the date when the board of directors of the Russian Central Bank will meet again to consider the issue of the key rate and the equivalent refinancing rate in Russia. So far, it is equal to 8.5%, but low official inflation during this year and other economic factors speak for the fact that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will almost certainly lower the percentage of the key rate - at least half a percentage point, to 8.0%.
The probable decrease in the key rate in Russia at the end of October against the background of its equally probable increase in the United States may lead to an outflow of investments, primarily American ones, from the Russian economy to the American one. This will negatively affect the ruble.
Another probable negative factor- start of payments by Russian business external debt... These payments usually peak in December, but some of them are paid in November. Also in November, they will buy up foreign currency and companies that will settle accounts with foreign creditors before the new year. The demand for foreign currency could also weaken the Russian means of payment.
However, if we turn to the forecasts for the dollar exchange rate for November 2017, expressed in numbers, then the experts of the analytical agency APECON, who are famous for such predictions, are quite optimistic and believe that the ruble will be able to cope with the negative:
- November will begin, according to analysts, the course 56.50 per dollar.
- After the November holidays, on Tuesday, 7 november, the dollar will be quoted at 56.85 rubles.
- In the middle of the month, 15th of November, the dollar will be worth 56.66 rubles.
- Dollar exchange rate November 25- about 56.89 rubles.
Thus, in general for November, analysts are again expecting a stable ruble against the dollar. American currency will, in their opinion, balance between 56.5 and 57.0 rubles, and negative factors will not particularly affect it - the ruble has a margin of safety.
Despite all the efforts of the government, the country's economy has not recovered from the economic crisis, no one has lifted the sanctions, and unrest is taking place in the foreign exchange market. In view of this, more and more citizens are interested in the forecast of the euro exchange rate for November, because the European currency is more stable than its American counterpart. Let's analyze whether it is worth trusting the euro and what to expect in the coming months and what the latest forecast for the euro exchange rate for 2017 waiting for us.
Before predicting the course currency pair euro dollar let's look at the factors affecting its stability, because the euro has long become an alternative to the dollar. Therefore, it should be borne in mind that the instability of the dollar directly affects the euro exchange rate and vice versa, because these 2 currencies are closely interconnected, euro exchange rate forecast closely related to others because this currency is still world and therefore its rate also directly depends on the events that occur in the territory where it is used to calculate monetary transactions.
The restrictions imposed by the West and the cost of oil cannot be discarded, although these indicators do not directly affect the value of the euro, but they are closely related to the budget of the Russian Federation and, consequently, the ruble. As you may have guessed, until the oil price stabilizes, starts to rise in price and at least some of the Western sanctions are lifted, the exchange rate will remain vulnerable and uncertain, there is no need to wait for stability.
The opinion of the authorities
Today, few people, except for the power of existence, can give a consoling forecast of the euro exchange rate in November 2017. So the promise that the euro will cost 40-45 rubles did not justify itself, although 7 years ago such a rate would have been very useful. By the end of the year, even the authorities are already saying that they will have to pay about 90-95 rubles for one euro and maybe even more.
As stated above, euro exchange rate forecast depends on the political situation in the world and the course will directly depend on how much and when the UK is ready to secede from the European Union. Recall that more than 51% of the British supported this event in the country. Few people undertake to predict the outcome of this decision, although so far everything will be done “peacefully”, without shocks, but at any moment due to unexpected and drastic decisions of Great Britain the euro may collapse and “pull down” the dollar.
Latest news on the foreign exchange market
The Ministry of Economic Development is optimistic, although in the current situation it is difficult to plan anything. Thus, some analysts state that pair EUR / RUB will return to around 70 rubles per unit. This is unlikely, because the euro has not given prerequisites for strengthening over the past few months. So, the approximate euro exchange rate for November, according to the estimates of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, may be:
- 68 rubles at the minimum mark;
- 68-69 rubles per unit with an average value;
- 69-71 rubles per 1 euro as the maximum value.
After a three-day break, we should expect the euro to strengthen against the ruble. It is also worth noting that ruble against euro should still stabilize. This will give a little peace of mind in the foreign exchange market, because the euro strictly follows the dollar. Nevertheless, experts from the Apekon Agency are planning a certain strengthening of the ruble and an approximate euro exchange rate forecast until November 10th may be:
- from November 15, the euro will strengthen significantly;
- from the middle, November 19, keep the same course;
- some shocks should be expected on November 20, when the ruble will fall in price by a few kopecks and the approximate rate will be 70.60 rubles per euro.
As you can see, the euro / ruble rate has somewhat stabilized even in comparison with the previous months.
What other factors could affect the volatility of the euro in November 2017?
Additional factors of unstable the forecast of the euro exchange rate in November 2017, influence on a complex economic situation in the country can perform:
- new concluded foreign economic contracts and the successful implementation of old ones, the settlements of which are carried out in euros. A successful foreign trade policy is successfully strengthening the ruble against other currencies.
- trust among citizens to the ruble. If suddenly the jumps in the dollar / euro currency pair begin, then citizens in a panic will run to surrender foreign currency, or vice versa, large business will begin to actively buy out foreign currency, incl. and euros. Then the central bank will have to resort to harsh and unpopular measures. Tough regulatory measures taken by the government to stabilize euro exchange rate forecast may or may not work, as the black currency market has become popular for a long time.
- currency speculation. There is a big gap in our economic defenses. The Central Bank does not monitor currency speculation by market participants. Although, in the international arena, few are punished for such actions, few can name whom for last years sanctions were applied for currency speculation.
- all sorts of force majeure circumstances. No one is protected from shocks, be it a large-scale spontaneous action, military action or terrorist attacks. This all undoubtedly affects euro exchange rate forecast.
- the downward trend in demand for risky assets of the Russian Federation may significantly increase the dollar rate to 70 rubles, while the Central Bank plans to cut rates.