What happens to the euro exchange rate. Forecast of the euro exchange rate for the near and distant future
For 2019, the long-term forecast for the euro exchange rate is calculated based on a variety of fundamental and technical data. Fundamental data includes world news and events, the situation in Russian Federation and in the European Union, the foreign policy situation in the world and much more. Technical data include the presence of an upward or downward trend on currency pairs and other exchange information. All this makes it possible to predict the euro exchange rate.
Are there any prerequisites for the growth of the European currency?
This year, the following prerequisites for the growth of the euro currency against the ruble remain:
- sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union on Russia;
- rising prices for gasoline and diesel fuel;
- reduction in the supply of oil and gas for export;
- high inflation that has been observed in the Russian Federation over the past few years;
- unsatisfactory condition Russian economy;
- tense situation in Syria.
All of the above factors make it possible to say with confidence that in the coming years there are all the prerequisites for the growth of the value of the euro. The greatest impact on the ruble exchange rate in the presented list is exerted by sanctions and the situation with oil exports.
The table shows the forecast of changes in Brent oil prices in 2019
Unlike the dollar, making accurate forecasts for the European currency is difficult. The dollar exchange rate for the coming day can be predicted with high accuracy just a few hours before the opening of the Moscow Currency Exchange. It is even more difficult to make a forecast for the euro currency in the long term, since in this case the value of the currency will depend not only on the situation in Russia, but also on the exchange rate of the European currency against the dollar. However, the forecasts of most specialists come true by 60-80%.
The forecast of the euro against the dollar depends on the state of affairs in the EU countries, especially on the economic situation in the leading countries of the Eurozone. The political, social and cultural situation in this region is essential. The presence of any problems in just one of the European countries leads to a loss in the value of the euro against the dollar and the ruble.
Central Bank analysts' opinion on the euro exchange rate for 2019
According to analytical experts from the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank, the rate of the European currency in 2019 will be as unstable as in 2017-2018. At the beginning of 2019, the ruble's exchange rate against the euro may rise to 85-90 rubles per unit of the euro, provided that the foreign policy situation in the world does not change.
In the event that the situation in the country and in the world worsens, with the growth of tension in relations between Russia and other countries, the figure of 90 rubles per 1 euro is far from the limit.
At the end of 2017, the issue of Britain's withdrawal from the European Union arose in Europe. If Brexit does take place in 2019, the euro exchange rate against the dollar will fall dramatically. This will give a strong reason for the decline in the value of the euro and in rubles.
Also, the easing of the euro currency rate may occur in the event of an expected increase in oil prices to $ 80 per barrel by April 2019.
Forecasts of experts of the Ministry of Economic Development
Specialists from the Ministry economic development believe that sharp jumps in the euro exchange rate should not be expected until the end of 2019. The positive result of the elections in France has already had a strengthening effect on the euro, and the same should be expected from the elections in Germany. The situation in the Eurozone is calm, relations between the United States and Russia are beginning to improve. In these conditions, the ruble exchange rate against European monetary units should stabilize and not present any negative surprises.
Traders and bankers are confidently talking about the stable growth of both the euro and the dollar in the coming months. Both currencies are still undervalued, European operations are in high surplus, Russian banks also expect an inflow of foreign capital - all these factors will continue to stimulate the rise in prices for the euro.
Another scenario is also possible, in which in the second half of 2019 the rise in prices for the euro currency will stop and during the autumn there will be a correction in the form of a slight depreciation of the euro.
Forecasted euro rate according to Sberbank
According to the forecast of Sberbank analysts, presented in the table, in the 2nd quarter of 2019, the euro exchange rate in Russia will slightly decline. In the fourth quarter, the euro should strengthen its position and by the end of the year fall in price to 71 rubles per unit.
Month | Direction by the end of the month | Course at the beginning. months (from 1-15) | The course is on the line. months from 15 - 31 |
January | ▲ will rise | 81,29 | 84,15 +2,86 |
February | ▲ will rise | 84,15 | 87,75 +3,6 |
March | ▲ will rise | 87,75 | 89,9 +2,15 |
April | ▼ will decrease | 89,9 | 85,14 –4,76 |
May | ▼ will decrease | 85,14 | 81,72 –3,42 |
June | ▼ will decrease | 81,72 | 79,16 –2,57 |
July | ▼ will decrease | 79,16 | 78,24 –0,91 |
August | ▲ will rise | 78,24 | 78,95 +0,71 |
September | ▼ will decrease | 78,95 | 76,21 –2,74 |
October | ▼ will decrease | 76,21 | 75,14 –1,07 |
November | ▼ will decrease | 75,14 | 71,25 –3,89 |
December | ▼ will decrease | 71,25 | 68,86 –2,39 |
The first three months of 2019 is expected to further increase the value of the euro from 81 to 87 rubles, and over the next 9 months it will decrease to 71-72 rubles per euro. This trend should continue until mid-2020. By May 2020, Sberbank predicts a decline in the value of the euro currency to 62 rubles per euro.
What do independent experts say about the value of the euro?
The opinion of independent experts differs from the opinion of economists in a direction unfavorable for the ruble. Many foreign experts predict a rise in prices for the euro currency up to the level of 100 rubles per euro. This is due to the following reasons:
- The Russian economy is in crisis due to the current sanctions and a decrease in the export of goods (primarily oil).
- In the near future, the sanctions will not be lifted, which means that it will not be possible to achieve the recovery of the Russian economy.
- One of the options for the development of events: by the end of 2018, the countries of the European Union and the United States will introduce new sanctions against Russia, which will negatively affect the economic state of the Russian Federation.
Not all independent experts hold these views. Analysts at the Morgan & Stanley credit agency argue that the growth of the euro against the ruble will not exceed 80 rubles. for the euro.
Under one of the scenarios of the development of events, the euro against the ruble may fall to 70 rubles per euro by September.
Also, the ruble will be affected by the dynamics of the euro against the dollar. If the European currency does not rise in price in relation to the American one, the ruble will still have a chance to grow in value.
In addition, the results of the speeches of the head of the European Central Bank and the EU finance ministers may affect the Russian currency. If in their words there is confidence in the prospects for the European economy, the euro will rise in value again.
And the last factor that can affect the ruble is the macroeconomic indicators of Russia and the decision of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on the interest rate. Taking into account today's course ruble and the growth of inflationary risks The Central Bank is likely to leave the interest rate unchanged, and it will not affect the dynamics of the euro in any way.
Macroeconomic indicators for the country will most likely come out in different directions. The Russian economy is unstable, and as soon as investors acknowledge the downturn in the Russian economy, the Russian currency may plummet in value.
10.01.20 The ratio of the euro to the ruble in 2020 will remain near the values of 2019, with possible fluctuations of up to 10%, in the event of an aggravation of the international situation.
Among the economic and political factors affecting the exchange rate, the most important balance of supply and demand for foreign exchange market... On the one hand, export-oriented sectors of the economy continue to steadily supply the state with proceeds from sales in foreign markets. Sanctions do not particularly interfere and will affect in the more distant future. On the other hand, the tough policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to contain money supply in circulation does not allow the appetites of the population and industry in the field of imports to roam.
The political environment, both external and internal, remains a risk factor. The external one is characterized by an increase in turbulence around the world, but the likelihood of catastrophic events in Europe or Russia is small, and the euro-ruble pair will most likely remain stable. And random fluctuations will smooth out both the most powerful EU economy, so significant gold reserves RF.
As for the internal political situation, although it tends to deteriorate, it does not threaten a critical collapse in the near future.
Automatic forecasting based on statistics on the dynamics of the euro:
- In what currency to keep money - discussion.
- Additionally: dollar rate, default.
- Important: what influences the Euro exchange rate?
2019
10.01.19 Taking into account December last year, we can safely say that the euro still has room to grow.
However, we see that the monetary policy of the ECB has not changed since the 2008 crisis and maintains a low interest rate, as it continues to issue the European currency, of course in a digital version, with the subsequent redemption of bonds of commercial banks. What has proven to be ineffective in Last year when 2.6 billion euros were injected into the economy. However, at the same time, the economy of the euro zone grew by only 0.2% and this is the lowest result in the last 4 years.
The ruble is under pressure from both the sanctions policy and, traditionally, the price of oil. There is also the issue of Nord Stream 2. Continued construction will strengthen the ruble's position against the euro.
2018
01.09.18 By the middle of autumn, the euro may cross the line of 81 rubles. Sanctions - both in Britain and in the US elections.
10.04.18 Before the alleged American aggression in Syria, the euro is growing (the ruble is weakening). 78-80 rubles is an achievable bar. However, the pressure on Russia will naturally affect the rest of Europe.
11.01.18 European "nobility" reached out to China. A prick for the US, an attempt to find a patron, or a way to flatter in order to delay the arrival of the Silk Road? There can be many goals.
However, the past year has shown great disunity within the EU and an already ripe protest against the center. The aspirations of Poland and Hungary to develop are contrary to the aspirations of Germany. There is an increasing need for closer cooperation with Russia and the search for an internal consensus.
Bullying with LNG from the United States disrupts the plans of Russophobes, and Nord Stream 2 is a necessity.
How will it affect the Euro. Obviously, in order to stabilize, the exchange rate will have to be sacrificed and parity with the dollar will not be achieved. However, this has already ceased to be a goal.
Europe has an opportunity to balance and if the conflict in Ukraine is pacified and return to the old relations with Russia, it will be difficult to shake the euro.
Basically, everything will depend on the ruble. And here, many fear that the weakening of the Russian currency will pull down the Euro as well. In the end, as some analysts believe, the question of becoming a servant of the United States or gaining greater independence with Russia is becoming more and more important for Europe.
The rate will range from 67 to 69 rubles per euro. Of course, there will be growth in the event of strengthening sanctions against Russia, but not as significant as in the ruble-dollar pair, since European countries and Ukraine also suffer from sanctions against Russia, where in this case the conflict may worsen.
2017
19.07.2017 The G20 summit showed that Merkel and Macron are skeptical about Russia, despite the obvious demand in European society for friendship and the lifting of sanctions. The situation with migrants, sanctions, Brexit, internal contradictions put pressure on the Euro, but the ruble is also weakening from the same sanctions and external pressure. 72 rubles per Euro.
26.04.17 The elections in France, if Macron wins, will give the European currency a strong credit of confidence, which could raise the exchange rate to 71 rubles. However, the current trends (only in technical terms) show the possibility of a further decline in the euro to 68.5 rubles.
12.12.2016 After the US elections, the European currency accelerated its pace towards parity with the dollar. And the ECB's actions on this path help her: the asset purchase program has been extended until December 17, the total volume of purchases has been increased. Moreover, the ECB claims that if necessary, there will be no problems with the increase in stimulation.
The euro is unlikely to reach parity, but further decline is expected. Taking into account the growing oil and the opposite tendencies in the Russian currency, we forecast a decrease in the ruble / euro exchange rate to 66 rubles / euro.
12.12.2016 In 2016, populism in Europe began to gain strength, and in 2017, the trends will only intensify. Negative political news from Europe will be enough to push the euro down.
The decisive factor will be the French elections, where the popularity of right-wing candidates is growing. And if Le Pen's victory is unlikely, then Fillon may well become president. Fillon's election will be a positive signal for Russia as well, which has enough growth markers for 2017. In light of the above, we should expect the ruble to euro exchange rate in the range of 65-67 rubles / euro.
2016
Analysts divided into several camps regarding the value of the European currency for Russians:
- Optimists - 60-65 rubles: government economists and some foreign analysts.
- Realists - 80-90 rubles: most of the Western experts.
- Pessimists - 100-150 rubles: independent experts who are extremely worried about the high consumption of the Central Bank's monetary reserves.
- First, to achieve the growth of internal gross product taking on the reform of the economy.
- Secondly, to resolve the conflict situation in Ukraine in a civilized and diplomatic manner, having received in return the lifting of heavy and unprofitable sanctions.
Another extremely important factor that affects the ruble is the international currency - oil. The rise in oil prices would have calmed and would have significantly strengthened the country's economy.
If everything goes as the “optimists” predict, it will not be good right away: the first quarter of 2016 will be quite difficult, the price of the European currency may reach 95 rubles, but with time will fall to an acceptable mark.
24.12.2015 The Eurozone economy is gradually recovering from the crisis, but the Europeans have a number of "weak" countries that offset many of Germany's stabilization efforts. The disruption of relations with Russia affects not only business, but also affects the exchange rate of the single currency. Moreover, the loss Russian market, as well as Russian raw materials, is disastrous for a number of industries in many countries of the Eurozone. The average euro exchange rate is predicted for 2015 - at 66 rubles.
AiF.ru interviewed financial experts and found out what factors will support the ruble in the second half of the year, and, conversely, what difficulties it may face Russian currency.
"American Threat"
Anastasia Sosnova, analyst investment company Freedom Finance:“The ruble, like other emerging market currencies, will remain under normalization pressure in the second half of 2018 monetary policy US Federal Reserve. This suggests that in the long term, capital outflow from emerging markets with the transfer of money from the sale in US dollars will continue.
Against this background, it makes no sense to expect a serious strengthening of the national currency by the end of the year. The Russian currency may still fall in price against the dollar up to 66 rubles.
The periods of increased volatility for the ruble are likely to be September and December, as two rate hikes are expected in the United States in those months. "
"Ruble got rid of oil"
Alexey Fedorenko, asset manager financial company ICBF:“Thanks to the operations of the Ministry of Finance in the market, the ruble is practically independent of the oil market. It is much more influenced by the actions of non-residents, so that the main risks for the exchange rate lie in the area of investor sentiment in the global market. There are no particular reasons for a serious fall in the value of the national currency: after weakening in early April, quotations are moving in a rather narrow range, with attempts once a month to overcome the mark of 64 rubles per dollar.
The introduction of duties by the world's largest economies is contributing to a slowdown in global GDP growth, which worries investors and forces them to withdraw money from developing countries... If the situation does not change, then the Russian currency may well eventually overcome the current "ceiling" and gain a foothold above 64.50 rubles per dollar and 74.50 per euro. At the same time, one should take into account the massive conversions of domestic exporters who exchange foreign currency earnings to pay taxes, so at the end of each month the ruble will get a break and try to grow, but the long-term picture is not in its favor. "
"The championship will end, the currency will strengthen"
Dmitry Zharsky, Director of the Veta Expert Group:“In the second half of the year, the ruble will first of all lose support from the cash flow brought into the economy by the guests of the 2018 World Cup. This is about $ 0.5-1 billion, which came to the foreign exchange market and did not allow the dollar to rise above 64 rubles.
With the end of the championship, this support will come to naught, but the federal regional budgets will need to spend 300-500 million rubles a year on each of the stadiums built for the championship, in order to simply maintain them.
Among the main factors exerting pressure on the ruble is the increase in the reserve rate of the US Federal Reserve, and as a result, the growth of global interest in the dollar and the fall in demand for currencies of developing countries. The growing reserve rate is attracting capital to the US economy, diverting it from riskier assets, which certainly include the ruble and Russian OFZs.
I believe that in the second half of 2018, the dollar will trade in the range of 65 - 70 rubles, by the end of the year tending to the upper border. For the euro, the range will be 75 - 83 rubles, the upper limit in priority. "
"September and December are difficult months"
Olga Prokhorova, expert of the International Financial Center:“The Bank of Russia does not intend yet to tighten monetary policy and raise rates, which are already in comparison with developed countries quite high - this is on the one hand. On the other hand, in the United States, rates are increasing, and in Europe, the quantitative easing program is being phased out, and there is a prospect of raising rates in the eurozone next year.
That is, both the dollar and the euro are following the path of appreciation (at least while we see such a trend). The same cannot be said about the Russian ruble, the dynamics of which is no longer a derivative of oil prices, as it was before.
As for the most “difficult” periods for the ruble, these can be September and December, and it is during these months that the Fed, presumably, can raise rates again. Also on December 3, an OPEC meeting will take place, the outcome of which is not yet possible to predict, since the issues discussed at it will largely depend on the dynamics and conjuncture of the oil market in the coming months. "
Dangerous Trade Warriors and Key Bets
Ivan Kopeikin, expert of the financial company "BCS Broker": “The key risks for the ruble in the second half of the year are likely to be: further tightening of monetary policy by world central banks. In particular, in the near future, the Fed will increase the volume of operations to reduce the balance sheet to $ 40 billion, and also twice more before the end of the year may raise rates. At the same time, both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are gradually curtailing incentives. All this may lead to an acceleration of capital outflow from developing countries and pressure on the Russian currency.
Of the significant risks, in my opinion, it is also worth highlighting trade wars, which can continue to negatively affect world economy, and, accordingly, commodity assets and the ruble. At the same time, the VAT increase announced by the government may further slow down the growth rate. national economy and increase capital outflow from the country.
The most difficult is traditionally the 4th quarter and in particular November and December. Since during this period there are maximum payments on external borrowing in foreign currency... If we take the seasonality, then moderately light, as a rule, are October and September, as well as the past February, March and April.
The maximum values, in my opinion, can be 66.5-67 for the dollar / ruble pair and 79-80 for the euro / dollar pair ”.
Today I decided to tell you the most recent euro forecast for 2017. Currently, the economy of the Russian Federation is not going through the most better times, financial position the state is very volatile.
The country's solvency largely depends on market conditions, or rather on the price of black gold. And as we all know, in recent times oil prices are at a low level. It is for this reason that the Russian economy is not in the most advantageous position. European sanctions have also had a negative impact on the economy of the state.
The economic state of the state can improve only if the internal / external situation normalizes, the price of oil rises, which, accordingly, will lead to higher prices. Russian ruble... And if the sanctions are lifted, then it will still significantly improve the economy of the state.
Over the past two years, the ruble has depreciated sharply, which, in turn, has caused excitement among domestic citizens. Today, almost all domestic citizens are interested in the exchange rate, including the forecast for the euro exchange rate for 2017.
Euro exchange rate forecast for 2017 from the Central Bank
The leadership of the Central Bank said that a slight depreciation of the national currency can be expected in the near future, and accordingly the euro will grow against the ruble. But after Brexit, a steadily downward trend emerged on the euro / dollar pair, that is, the euro has been depreciating against the dollar for six months.
1
Let me remind you that many experts predicted a depreciation of the euro, regardless of the decision of the referendum, which actually happened.
The forecast for the euro exchange rate for 2017 suggests that in the future, euro quotes will fall. So, next year the euro / dollar pair will be dominated by downtrend.
So, the euro will become cheaper in the future, but in order to determine the future ratio of the euro to the ruble, it is worth finding out what will happen to the ruble in 2017. Unfortunately, a sharp improvement in the situation is not expected in the Russian Federation in the near future. Many analysts assume that the national currency will continue its downward trend next year.
What is the best way to store currency in 2017
Due to the fact that next year the domestic currency becomes a little cheaper, many citizens of the Russian Federation are wondering how to store their savings in 2017. If you cannot choose what is better to buy: dollars or euros, then experienced financiers advise to buy dollars.
I would like to note that the euro / ruble quotes are influenced by the euro / dollar quotes. Credit Bank Suisse, which is based in Switzerland, assures that in 2017 the value of the dollar and the euro will equalize. Even if they are not quoted 1: 1, the dollar's price will approach the euro's value significantly.
The opinion of employees of the Morgan Stanley organization is somewhat different from the one presented above, they assume that in 2017 the value of the EU currency will be 90 rubles. You should not blindly trust their forecasts, as they often make mistakes and change their forecasts.
Employees of the Ministry of Economic Development assure that the rise in oil prices can lead to the stabilization of the Russian economy. And if oil remains at $ 40, then the government will have to cut budget spending.
Some experts speculate that the government will not be able to cut spending, which will soon lead to a sharp collapse of the ruble. China is actively trading with Russia. If the PRC does not improve its position in the future, this will further reduce the cost of black gold, which will accordingly lead to a reduction in the cost of the ruble.
In order to improve the situation in Reserve Fund, you can take the following measures:
- Reduce the level of expenses.
- Use funds from the Welfare Fund.
- Activate the financing of the issue.
Experienced specialists consider the application of the second point inappropriate, as it will increase the debt. The most optimal option is to reduce the level of costs. So the leadership of the Russian Federation plans to cut costs by 3 trillion rubles in 2017. What measures will be taken for this is not yet clear.
The most accurate forecast of the euro exchange rate for 2017
You can see the euro forecast for 2017 in Russia below.
January 2017
At the beginning of the new year, the euro will cost 73.4. The maximum value of the exchange rate in January 2017 was 73.4, and the minimum was 70.5. The monthly average is 72.2.
February 2017
In the first days of February, the value of the European currency will be 71.6. The maximum value of the exchange rate in February 2017 will be 74.4, and the minimum is 71.5. The average for the entire month is 72.74.
At the beginning of March 2017, the price of the European currency will be 73.3. The maximum value of the course will be equal to 73.3, and the minimum 70.4. The average value in the month of March is 72.1.
April 2017
At the beginning of April 2017, the euro will cost 71.5. The limiting value of the course will be 71.6, and the minimum is 69.5. The average will be around 70.6.
At the beginning of May 2017, the euro will cost 70.6. The maximum price will be 70.7 and the minimum price will be 68.6. The average price of the EU currency will be 69.9.
In June 2017, the euro will cost 69.6. The maximum price in June 2017 will be 69.6, and the minimum - 66.9. The average value of quotations in June is 68.5.
In July, the European currency will cost 67.9. The maximum rate in July 2017 will be 68.99 and the minimum 66.95. The average value of the quotes of the European currency will be located in the region of 67.97.
August 2017
In August, the European currency will cost 67.97. The maximum rate in August 2017 will be 70.7, and the minimum 67.9. The average price will be around 69.05.
September 2017
This month the European currency will be worth 69.7. The maximum rate in September 2017 will be 72.5, and the minimum 69.7. The average value of the cost in September will be 70.8.
October 2017
This month the price is 71.4 euros. Limit quotes will be equal to 72.08, and minimum 69.95. The average cost in October will be 71.5.
November 2017
At the beginning of November 2017, the euro will cost 71. The maximum rate in November 2017 will be 71, and the minimum rate will be 67.2. The average value of the cost in November will be 68.9.
December 2017
At the beginning of December 2017, the euro will cost 69.3. The maximum quotes will be around 71.7, and the minimum will be 69.3. The average value of the cost in the month of December will be 70.2.
Euro(English Euro) - official currency 19 countries of the "eurozone" (Austria, Belgium, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Finland, France, Estonia). The euro is also the national currency of another 9 countries, 7 of which are located in Europe. However, unlike the members of the eurozone, these countries cannot influence the monetary policy of the European central bank and send representatives to its governing bodies. Thus, the euro is the common currency for over 340 million Europeans. As of November 2013 in cash circulation was 951 billion euros, which made this currency the owner of the highest total value of cash circulating in the world, ahead of the US dollar.
1 euro is equal to 100 cents (or euro cents). Banknote denominations in circulation: 500, 200, 100, 50, 20, 10 and 5 euros. Coins: 2 and 1 euro, 50, 20, 10, 5, 2 and 1 cent. The name of the monetary unit comes from the word "Europe".
The Euro currency is printed by central banks that are part of the European System of Central Banks. All issued banknotes have one standard design. The front side depicts windows, gates, bridges - as symbols of openness and interconnection. They are made in the form of typical samples of the main styles of European architecture: classical, Romanesque, Gothic, Renaissance, Baroque and Rococo, "metal and glass", Art Nouveau. At the same time, euro banknotes differ in color palette: 500 - purple, 200 - yellow, 100 - green, 50 - orange, 20 - blue, 10 red, and 5 - gray.
Unlike banknotes, coins have only a common front side, on which the denomination is placed against the background of a symbolic map of Europe. The downside is considered "national" - each issuing central bank has its own for each denomination.
Despite the fact that non-cash euros were officially introduced on January 1, 1999, and cash was issued on January 1, 2002, the history of the single European currency is older. Before the euro appeared, from 1979 to 1998, the European currency system used the ECU (European Currency Unit), which was a conditional basket of national monetary units a number of countries. The ECU was subsequently exchanged for the euro at a one-to-one rate.
Officially, trading in the euro on the international currency market began on January 4, 1999. In order to save investors from currency risks, quotes national currencies were recorded. Thus, the exchange rate for the German mark was 1.95583 per euro, the French franc - 6.55957, and the Italian lira - 1 936.21. At the same time, the initial rate of the euro against the dollar was determined at about $ 1.17.
Throughout 1999, the euro quotes have steadily declined, eventually reaching the so-called parity - equality of 1 euro and 1 dollar. At the end of September 2000, the European central bank, The US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and a number of European banks have jointly intervened in support of the single euro currency. Nevertheless, this did not prevent her from reaching absolute historical minimum, which amounted to 0.8230 dollars per euro in October 2000.
It was recognized that a further decrease in the quotations of the single currency could harm the European economy. At the same time, the US Federal Reserve by the end of 2000, in order to cope with the coming recession, embarked on a course of easing monetary policy, cutting, in particular, discount rate up to 2%. As interest rates in Europe were higher, the euro became more attractive for investments than the dollar. In addition, in 2001, the American economy experienced the shock of the 9/11 terrorist attack. By the end of the year, the euro was trading at 0.96 per dollar, and by July 2002 it returned to parity value. Finally more expensive than a dollar he became after December 6 of the same year. And in 2003, prices began to grow steadily against the backdrop of the US entry into the war in Iraq.
The rate reached its initial value of 1.1736, recorded on the first trading day, on May 23, 2003, and the absolute maximum - 1.5990 - in 2008. This became possible due to the world financial crisis which this time originated in financial system U.S.A. Economists believe that the strengthening of the euro was mainly due to the weakness American economy, and not with European strength. This assumption is also supported by the fact that the aggravation of problems in the eurozone further led to a halt in the growth of currency quotes. For the summer of 2011, the euro exchange rate fluctuates between $ 1.41-1.45.
Nevertheless, during its existence, the euro has confidently ranked second in the world in terms of government reserves. This is due to the fact that, in total, the gross domestic product of the countries belonging to the eurozone exceeds even the GDP of the United States, which ranks first in the world.
The euro / dollar currency pair is the most traded on Forex market and financial derivatives - futures. Today Europe is a real alternative to the United States in terms of investment opportunities. At the same time, the choice of investors is influenced primarily by a comparison of the macroeconomic indicators of the two regions, such as the inflation rate, prevailing interest rates, GDP, trade balance, etc.
At the same time, the biggest problem in the euro area is the difference in the level of the economies of the member countries. The strongest are Germany, Italy, France. Those in difficulty are Greece, Ireland and a number of others.
For Russian investors the euro is traditionally interesting as an alternative to the US dollar. The European currency is used to diversify the risks associated with exchange rates, and as an independent direction of investments - during the growth of quotations.
In addition, it should be borne in mind that settlement in countries - members of the euro area by debit or credit cards it is more profitable to produce in this currency in order to avoid unnecessary conversion.