In Belarus, official unemployment has reached a historic low. Why official unemployment suddenly increased sharply in Belarus Unemployment rate in Belarus
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From 2017, Belarus will publish data on the real unemployment rate based on sample surveys of households. The current methodology does not reflect the processes in the labor market and underestimates the real unemployment rates. The publication of the data will contribute to a more accurate assessment of the required amount of funds to strengthen the protection of the labor resources released as a result of economic reform.
Starting January 1, 2017, Belarus will publish data on the unemployment rate on a regular basis based on sample household surveys conducted on a quarterly basis. These data will be published together with the official unemployment rate, the calculation of which will not change significantly. As a result, the country will have two indicators of unemployment: official, calculated on the basis of the number of unemployed registered in the country's employment services, and real, which will display all citizens who do not have official work, including those not registered at the labor exchange and not counted as unemployed at the moment .
The shortcoming of the current methodology for calculating the unemployment rate is recognized at the official level through the adoption of a decree on social dependency. By accepting this document, the authorities indicated a figure of at least 400 thousand people who are not officially employed in the Belarusian economy. The official number of unemployed at the end of July was 44.9 thousand people, or 1% of the economically active population of the country. In just 6 months of 2016, more than 81,000 people were laid off on a net basis in various sectors of the Belarusian economy, while the number of unemployed remained practically unchanged over this period.
Belstat has previously collected information on the real unemployment rate, however this information not published. The reason for the lack of publications is a significant gap between the official and real unemployment rates. The population census showed that about 6-7% of the economically active population of the country does not work anywhere. The publication of these data could spoil the overall picture of the achievements of the social economic model countries. The change in the approach to publishing the real unemployment rate is associated with possible cooperation with international financial institutions who propose reforming the economic model of the country, including by reducing the excess number of employees in enterprises and strengthening the social protection of the unemployed. In this regard, the state is losing motivation to further conceal information, more accurate accounting of the real level of unemployment is necessary to calculate the amount of funds that will need to be allocated to strengthen the social protection of the unemployed and retrain them, and the amount of funding will serve as the basis for a subsequent increase in the amount of credit resources from international creditors.
Thus, the level of official unemployment has ceased to reflect real trends in the labor market. With the introduction of the new indicator, the unemployment rate may reach 5-7% of the economically active population of the country, and the amount of funds allocated for social protection of the unemployed may be increased several times, including through foreign loans.
According to Belstat, By the end of last year, there were 35.3 thousand officially registered unemployed. This figure is 1.4% lower than in November of the same year, and 18.5% lower than a year earlier. At the end of 2016, registered unemployment in the country amounted to 0.8% of the number of economically active citizens. At the end of 2015, it was 1%.
Last year 239.2 thousand people were registered and applied for assistance in finding employment. Of these, 70.1% or 167.6 thousand people were recognized as unemployed. Assistance in finding employment was provided to 159.8 thousand people, of which 109 thousand were unemployed. They accounted for 68.2% of all employed.
In 2016 100 existing vacancies accounted for 98 officially registered unemployed, at the end of the previous year their number was 151 people. About two thirds of the unemployed are men, women accounted for 34% of the total number of such citizens. The average unemployed man turned out to be a 31.5-year-old man with a vocational or general secondary education, who was fired by agreement of the parties.
Unemployment in Belarus has reached a historic low. At the beginning of October, there were 15,000 officially unemployed in the country, according to the Ministry of Labor. This is 45.1% less unemployed than a year earlier. The level of registered unemployment at the beginning of this month in Belarus amounted to 0.3%. At the same time, the actual unemployment rate is noticeably higher than the official one: the number of unemployed, classified in accordance with the criteria international organization labor, in the first quarter of this year 260.6 thousand people.
The picture is illustrative. Photo: Evgeny Erchak, TUT.BY
The level of registered unemployment in the Brest and Vitebsk regions was 0.5%, in the Gomel, Grodno and Mogilev regions - 0.4%, in the Minsk region - 0.3%, and in Minsk - 0.1%.
Recall that in the country as a whole, the level of registered unemployment at the beginning of September this year was 0.4%, the same figure was at the beginning and - also 0.4%, and at the beginning of June, May, April, March - 0.5%.
Such a low number of officially unemployed, as at the beginning of October, has never been in Belarus. So, at the beginning of September this year, 16.3 thousand people were registered as unemployed, August - 16.6 thousand, July - almost 17.8 thousand, June - 19.8 thousand, May - 21.8 thousand, April - 22.9 thousand, March - 23.9 thousand.
At the end of 2017, there were 22.9 thousand officially unemployed in Belarus, 2016 - 35.3 thousand, 2015 - 43.3 thousand, 2014 - 24.2 thousand, 2013 - 20.9 thousand, 2012 - 24.9 thousand, 2013 - 28.2 thousand, 2012 - 33.1 thousand, 2009 - 40.3 thousand, 2008 - 37.3 thousand, 2007 - 44.1 thousand, 2006 - 52 thousand, 2005 - 67.9 thousand, 2004 - 83 thousand, 2003 - 136.1 thousand, 2002 - 130.5 thousand, 2001 - 102.9 thousand, 2000 - 95.8 thousand.
At the same time, the number of vacancies has increased to a record high in Belarus. So, as of October 1 this year, employers reported information about 79.2 thousand vacancies. This is 42.8% more than in the same period last year.
“The demand for workers in working professions amounted to 65.4 percent of total number vacancies against 60.3% as of October 1, 2017, - specify in the Ministry of Labor. “The coefficient of tension in the labor market of the republic as of October 1 this year amounted to 0.2 unemployed per vacancy (as of October 1, 2017 - 0.5).”
At the same time, in the Brest and Vitebsk regions this indicator amounted to 0.3 unemployed per vacancy, Gomel, Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev regions - 0.2, and in Minsk - 0.1 unemployed per vacancy.
Recall that in March last year Alexander Lukashenko to employ by May 1 all the unemployed in the country. It was not possible to fulfill this order, but the number of unemployed in the country, according to official statistics, has decreased. So, as of May 1 last year, there were 39.8 thousand official unemployed in Belarus. In April, their number decreased by 3.6 thousand people. Prior to this, the number of unemployed Belarusians for three months.
In 2017, in Belarus, the number of unemployed, classified in accordance with the ILO criteria, in 2017 was 293.4 thousand people. This is 2.8% less than in 2016.
Unemployment is a phenomenon in which the economically active population, who is willing and able to work, is unable to find a paid job.
Exist several types of unemployment:
- forced;
- on own will;
- structural;
- institutional;
- unstable;
- friction;
- marginal;
- youth;
- registered;
- hidden.
To identify a person as unemployed, the age from ten to seventy-two years is taken into account. international standards, and from fifteen to seventy-two according to the methodology of the statistical bureau of the Russian Federation, as well as non-employment, lack of work, being in search of employment, readiness to start working in the future.
In order to determine the unemployment rate, which is an indicator of the number of unemployed, the ratio of the unemployed to the total active population is calculated and reflected as a percentage.
In turn, employed persons are: employees of working age, entrepreneurs, family business workers, employers, members of cooperatives, collective farmers, working pensioners, as well as persons who work, but have not yet reached working age.
The employment ratio reflects the difference between the number of employed people and the total number of the economically active population.
The natural rate of unemployment refers to the term "full employment". However, in this case, natural unemployment is not identical to the absence of unemployment as such. The natural rate of unemployment can be defined as economic situation, in which there is no cyclical unemployment, but there is frictional unemployment and structural unemployment.
Prerequisites for natural unemployment can be factors such as lack of information, artificial barriers in legislation, bureaucracy, demographic changes, and much more. It is not possible to change the situation with natural unemployment in the short term; long-term economic transformations are needed.
Unemployment as an economic phenomenon also has negative social consequences. After all, a person whose income has significantly decreased, as well as a loss of qualification, is doomed to psychosomatic reactions. And this, in turn, will inevitably result in social frigidity and worthlessness. And the latter is already fraught with an increase in suicidal and criminal cases. So, according to the famous academician Russian Academy Science Viktor Ivanter, an unemployed person, in the case of even receiving unemployment benefits, becomes dangerous to society.
Unemployment rate in Belarus
If we talk about unemployment in Belarus, then apparently our country has something to be proud of. So, according to the latest data, at the beginning of the new year, the rate of unemployed, who are officially registered, has reached an incredible minimum. However, what is the real unemployment in the country?
2016 to 2015, % |
|||
---|---|---|---|
September |
|||
according to the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Republic of Belarus
2017 to 2016, % |
|||
---|---|---|---|
September |
|||
2018 to 2017, % |
|||
---|---|---|---|
11,7 | |||
15,2 | 10,5 | 69,1 | |
14,8 | 10,7 | 72,3 | |
13,2 | 9,4 | 71,2 | |
10,6 | 8,2 | 77,4 | |
12 | 9,2 | 76,7 | |
September |
11 | 8,9 | 80,9 |
12,3 | 10,5 | 85,4 | |
10,9 | 9,3 | 85,3 | |
8,7 | 6,9 | 79,3 |
according to the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Republic of Belarus
2019 to 2018, % |
|||
---|---|---|---|
11,7 | 9,8 | 83,8 | |
10,6 | 84,9 | ||
10,3 | 79,6 | ||
10,5 | 8,8 | 83,8 | |
10,7 | 7,7 | 71,9 | |
9,4 | 7 | 74,5 | |
8,2 | 7 | 85,4 | |
9,2 | 7,1 | 77,2 | |
September |
8,9 | 7,8 | 87,6 |
10,5 | 8,1 | 77 | |
9,3 | 6,4 | 68,8 | |
6,9 |
according to the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Republic of Belarus
The low unemployment rate in Belarus in 2014 can be partly explained by the fact that many unemployed citizens do not want to be registered with employment services, or stock exchanges. The reason is the mockingly low amount of the benefit, which has a temporary factor and is paid only during the first six months. In addition, in order to receive a meager benefit, the unemployed is obliged to take part in social work, for example, in picking potatoes on collective farm fields, or cleaning streets and yards.
With similar social and economic phenomenon I don't know Norway. In this Scandinavian country, unemployment benefits are paid throughout life if a person does not wish to work. At the same time, the amount of the allowance is equivalent to one and a half thousand. For that kind of money, Norwegians can live in the countries of Southeast Asia for six months, as respected and wealthy people.
According to the National Statistical Bureau of Belarus, as of January 1, 2015, the unemployment rate in Belarus fell to 0.5 percent. In quantitative terms, the number of official unemployed amounted to almost twenty-five thousand people. Official data is far from what the country's actual unemployment rate is.
Many experts agree with the fact that the reluctance of the unemployed to officially register at the labor exchange because of low benefits, including the former Minister of Labor of the Republic of Belarus Aleksandra Sosnova. Thus, unemployment benefits in Minsk in February 2014 amounted to 112 thousand 400 rubles, which at that time corresponded to 11 US dollars.
As mentioned above, another reason for the reluctance of the unemployed to officially register is forced labor. Although according to the convention of the International Labor Organization, such actions are prohibited in principle. In our country, this convention has already been ratified, which does not interfere government bodies continue to involve the unemployed in public works.
What else would have to be determined is the rate of unemployment at full employment, which would make it possible to paint a picture of natural unemployment. However, in the national statistical office, such figures are for internal use only, not to be made public.
However, as in any third country in the world, Belarus has found its own special way fight against unemployment. We are talking about the introduction of the unemployed in 2015 tax.
At the end of 2016, the number of officially registered unemployed in Belarus amounted to 35.3 thousand people. This figure is 18.5% less than at the end of 2015 and 1.4% less than at the end of November 2016. According to the National Statistical Committee, the level of registered unemployment at the end of 2015 was 1% of the economically active population of Belarus, and at the end of 2016 - 0.8%. However, the actual unemployment rate, published by Belstat according to a sample survey of households, amounted to 5.8% in 2016 (257.1 thousand people from the economically active population).
As of January 1, 2017, the labor market tension coefficient in Belarus decreased from 1.5 to 1 unemployed person per vacancy compared to January 1, 2016.
As of December 1, 2018, 14.2 thousand people were registered as unemployed, which is 41.1% less unemployed than on December 1, 2017 (24.1 thousand people). The registered unemployment rate amounted to 0.3% and decreased by 0.3% compared to the same period (0.6%).
Registered unemployment as of January 1, 2019 amounted to 0.3% and decreased by 0.2% compared to January 1, 2018 (0.5%).
The level of officially registered unemployment as of January 1, 2020 amounted to 0.2% of the labor force, which is 0.1% less than as of January 1, 2019 - 0.3%.
2019 is marked by demand for labor. As of January 1, 2020, the labor, employment and social protection authorities received information about the presence of 83.6 thousand vacancies, which amounted to 110.7% by January 1, 2019. The need for workers in working professions amounted to 61.6% of the total number of vacancies. The coefficient of tension in the labor market of Belarus decreased from 0.2 as of January 1, 2019 to 0.1 unemployed per vacancy as of January 1, 2020.
according to the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Republic of Belarus
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The National Statistical Committee of Belarus (Belstat) reports that the actual unemployment rate in the country in 2016 amounted to 5.8% of the economically active population, or about 200,000 people. This figure is significantly different from the one published by the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection, according to which, as of January this year, unemployment was only 0.9%. What caused the discrepancies and what lies behind them, DW found out.
Different methods counting the unemployed
According to the Ministry of Labor, the number of officially registered unemployed in Belarus at the end of January 2017 was 39.9 thousand people. At the same time, compared with December 2016, this figure increased immediately by 12.9%. But why does Belstat give more than 200 thousand unemployed, and the Ministry of Labor only about 40 thousand?
According to experts, not all Belarusians who do not work for various reasons are eager to register as unemployed. The reason is the meager unemployment benefit, which is now 24 Belarusian rubles (12 euros) per month. And this is a little more than 13% of living wage. In addition, to receive this amount, the unemployed must also participate in public works, such as sweeping the streets.
According to the former Minister of Labor of Belarus Alexander Sosnov, specialists have previously argued that real unemployment in the country is much higher than the authorities report. “If we count according to the methodology of the International Labor Organization (ILO), then we get one figure. And if, as in Belarus, purely ideologically and populist, then it turned out that we have almost no unemployment at all,” Sosnov explained.
It's all about possible loans?
Sosnov does not rule out that now Belstat has started counting the number of unemployed according to the ILO methodology, and the IMF, the World Bank and European bank reconstruction and development, from which the country's leadership wants to receive loans.
The data of the Ministry of Labor was based only on the number of those who were registered at the labor exchange. And not everyone who (in accordance with the ILO methodology) does not have a job, but would like to work, but for various reasons cannot find a job.
In turn, the leader of the trade union of workers of the radio-electronic industry (REP) Gennady Fedynich believes that even the current data of Belstat are underestimated: "They give 5.8%, in fact, there are three times more unemployed in Belarus."
Blame "parasites"?
Meanwhile, some people who have lost their jobs sometimes turn to the labor exchange in order to avoid the status of a parasite and not pay the tax for "social dependency" established by a presidential decree, which is 20 basic units (460 rubles or more than 230 euros). Gennady Fedynich emphasizes that applying to the labor exchange is not at all a guarantee that a person will get a job.
According to him, the registered unemployed are given a list of enterprises, people come there, and they are denied employment, since the “optimization” of personnel has begun in the country at the suggestion of President Lukashenko. That is, Fedynich continues, these enterprises do not know what to do with their employees, who actually need to be laid off.
Context
Today is the most difficult situation, says the trade union leader, has developed in small towns and regional centers - in Borisov, Slutsk, Kalinkovichi, Beshenkovichi and others. In addition, the labor exchange does not retrain the unemployed. Under such circumstances, it is simply necessary to cancel Decree No. 3, the head of the REP trade union is sure. Meanwhile, Alexander Sosnov believes that the authorities are unlikely to take such a step, at least in the near future.
Who has the hardest time finding a job?
According to Sosnov, among those who find it most difficult to find a job in Belarus today are university graduates: that have never been taught." Big problems with finding a job, the ex-minister added, are also experienced by people of pre-retirement age.
In general, he emphasizes, there are not enough new jobs in Belarus that would enable GDP growth, since "for more than 20 years the country was eating away the Soviet legacy, creating almost nothing new." So far, the situation cannot improve in any way, and no decree No. 3 will save it, Sosnov concluded.
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Who earns how much
The tallest average salary for Belarusians employed in the field of IT technologies: up to 1,750 dollars. Air transport workers, financiers and members of parliament - up to 1.3 thousand dollars. Health and education workers receive between $270 and $320. Rural workers (about $250) and librarians ($220) receive the least.
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Only 13% of the population of Belarus have an average per capita monthly income of $300 or more. 6% of residents have incomes below the subsistence minimum budget, that is, less than $87. More than 4% of households are classified as low-income.
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New jobs and unemployment
In 2016, 100,000 more people were fired in Belarus than were hired. The labor exchange registered 45 thousand unemployed - 1% of the economically active population. Unemployment benefits are $13 equivalent. The authorities promise to create 50,000 jobs, but independent economists believe this task is impossible without reforms and better conditions for business.
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The most socially unprotected category of the population is pensioners. The average retirement pension is about $150. However, most older people receive no more than $120 a month. Belarusian authorities In 2016, we decided to increase the retirement age by 6 months every year. By 2022, it will gradually increase from 55 to 58 for women and from 60 to 63 for men.
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Leader in price growth
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