What is the budget for the year. Conclusions and forecasts
The budget for 2017-2019 is finally adopted by the State Duma
The State Duma
The State Duma adopted in the third and final reading the law on the federal budget for 2017-2019. 315 deputies voted for its adoption, 99 were against, the correspondent of "Rosbalt" reports.
According to the document, treasury revenues in 2017 will amount to 13.488 trillion rubles, expenses - 16.241 trillion rubles, and the deficit - 2.753 trillion rubles. In 2018, these indicators are planned at the level of 14.029 trillion rubles, 16.04 trillion rubles, 2.011 trillion rubles, respectively. In 2019, revenues will amount to 14.845 trillion rubles, expenses - 15.987 trillion rubles, and the deficit - 1.142 trillion rubles.
The 2017 budget was drawn up on the basis of an oil price of $ 40 per barrel. According to the Ministry of Economic Development, such an estimate of the level of oil prices is conservative, since it is significantly lower than the current consensus forecast for oil prices.
The share of oil and gas revenues of the federal budget will continue to decline from 37.4% in 2017 to 36% in 2019. Non-oil and gas revenues in relation to GDP will remain practically at a stable level (9.7% of GDP in 2017-2018 and 9.6% of GDP in 2019).
In 2017, the average annual exchange rate of the dollar is expected to remain at the level of 67.5 rubles per dollar; in 2018, the weakening of the exchange rate is predicted to 68.7 rubles per dollar, in 2019 - to 71.1 rubles per dollar.
In 2017, expenditures on general government issues are planned at 1.135 trillion rubles, national defense - 1.121 trillion rubles, security and law enforcement - 1.270 trillion rubles, national economy- 2.292 trillion rubles, housing and communal services - 58.2 billion rubles, environmental protection - 76.4 billion rubles, education - 568 billion rubles, culture and cinema - 94 billion rubles, healthcare - 377 billion rubles, social policy - 5.08 trillion rubles, mass media - 73.4 billion rubles, physical education and sports - 89.7 billion rubles, servicing the state debt - 729 billion rubles, interbudgetary transfers - 783.5 billion rubles.
In the 2017 budget, the share of secret expenses is 17.1%, with 11% of them going under sections not related to national defense and security.
Net capital outflows will increase from $ 20 billion in 2017 to $ 25 billion in 2018 and 2019. According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, in 2017, the GDP growth rate will go into the positive area and amount to 0.6%, in 2018 the GDP will increase to 1.7%, in 2019 - to 2.1%. By the end of 2017, inflation is forecast to fall to 4%.
It is predicted that the Reserve Fund will be fully depleted in 2017. Fund volume national welfare will decrease from 4,702.3 billion rubles at the beginning of 2017 to 3,056.2 billion rubles at the beginning of 2020.
At the same time, due to significant government domestic borrowing, it is planned to increase the volume of government debt in the next three years. At the end of 2017, it will amount to 13,972.2 billion rubles, in 2018 - 15,177.1 billion rubles and in 2019 - 16,651.9 billion rubles.
When considering the document in the second reading, the deputies redistributed 540 billion rubles for 2017 and more than 1 trillion rubles for the period 2018-2019. In particular, it was decided to increase lending support to the constituent entities of the Russian Federation from the federal budget from 100 billion to 200 billion rubles. In 2017, the regions will also receive separate species subsidies - to ensure the balance of budgets. Thus, Crimea will receive an additional 18.65 billion rubles, Sevastopol - 5.16 billion rubles, and Chechnya - 16.4 billion rubles.
Banks and agro-industrial complex will receive additional funds. So, credit institutions will be able to count on additional subsidies in order to reimburse them for lost income from loans issued to agricultural enterprises. We are talking about the amount of 21.3 billion rubles in 2017, 17.6 billion in 2018 and 17.17 billion rubles in 2019. An additional 10.638 billion rubles will be allocated to support the agro-industrial complex.
Three Duma factions voted against the adoption of the budget - the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, the Liberal Democratic Party and "Fair Russia". "The budget is not numbers, it is the fate of people and this Trishkin caftan cannot be patched up, it will not fit on the shoulders of huge Russia," - said, in particular, the leader of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, Gennady Zyuganov. According to him, the government has given 2 trillion rubles to rescue banks, which "have spread to offshores." “According to official information, out of 800 billion that was allocated for investment, only 3.4% was allocated for investment,” Zyuganov added.
He is convinced that "the crisis will only grow." "The ticks will continue to squeeze the throat of the country and all of us," concluded the leader of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation.
State Duma deputy from "Fair Russia" Alexander Burkov said that the country "impose a budget for the fall Russian economy". “Parents of this budget should be deprived of parental rights,” he said. According to the deputy, when drawing up the budget, the government "saved 250 billion rubles on old people, while 150 billion wants to squeeze out for bonuses to officials."
State Duma deputy from the Liberal Democratic Party Alexei Didenko noted that the new budget did not become a "budget for national salvation" and was adopted by United Russia practically without taking into account the opinions of other factions. "1 trillion rubles was distributed by one faction, how can this budget be called the budget of national accord?" - the deputy was indignant.
It should be noted that 47 extra-parliamentary parties were invited to consider the draft budget in the third reading, but they were not given the floor, but offered to listen to the discussion on the Duma's balcony.
On December 20, Vladimir Putin signed the main financial document for the country next year. According to him, the well-being of Russians will not improve much in the near future, but it may worsen even more in 2018-20. Since, if we consider the budget of Russia for 2017 in figures, then it can be described exclusively as “consuming”. Unfortunately, it does not provide for any real anti-crisis program or import substitution plan. On the other hand, there are several curious moments that can tell what the future, according to the Government's forecasts, awaits the citizens of the Russian Federation.
What is the budget in figures adopted by the deputies for Russia in 2017
The main financial document of the country indicates that the state intends to spend about 16.241 trillion next year with revenues of 13.488 trillion rubles. What do these numbers mean for ordinary Russians?
Three hard years
Cost structure in dollars
If we consider the projected costs for 2017, then, compared to last year, their overall size in the federal budget has not changed much. By by and large that 16.241, that 16.098 trillion rubles the difference is not very big. At the current exchange rate (60.8528 rubles / dollar), about 250 billion in dollars. For comparison: expenditures in the US budget are 16 times higher, and in the budget of Belarus 30 times less.
However, if you look not at the total volumes, but at the cost structure, then there is a clear tendency towards an increase in the infusion of money into the “siloviki” and the army with a reduction in spending on the social, scientific, medical and educational spheres. In particular, compared to last year:
- medical expenses will decrease by 10%;
- utility costs will increase by 40%;
- the pension fund will receive less than 175 billion rubles;
- the educational sphere will be missing about 8%.
At the same time, the defense budget will be increased by 72 billion rubles, not counting the planned increase in the salaries of a significant part of the “siloviki”.
Expenditure part:
What does such a budget adjustment mean for the average citizen? It's simple:
- Rising military spending speaks of preparation for military conflicts.
- The increase in spending on the Interior Ministry and intelligence services indicates preparations for internal unrest.
- A decrease in spending on social, educational and medical spheres with a large amount of reserves shows that the inflow of money is decreasing and this is a long-term trend.
Sources of income
In relation to income included in federal budget, then their size also differs little from last year - 13.44 trillion in 2017 to 13.738 trillion rubles in 2016. That's about $ 225 billion.
Budget revenues:
Year | 2015 | 2016 |
Total income | 13659 | 13369 |
Oil and gas | 5863 | 4778 |
of them | ||
Severance tax | 3160 | 2819 |
export duties | 2703 | 1959 |
Not oil and gas | 7797 | 8591 |
of them | ||
corporate income tax | 491 | 465 |
VAT on goods sold on the territory of the Russian Federation | 2448 | 2637 |
VAT on goods imported into the territory of the Russian Federation | 1785 | 1910 |
excise taxes on goods produced on the territory of the Russian Federation | 528 | 623 |
excise taxes on goods imported into the territory of the Russian Federation | 54 | 57 |
import duties | 560 | 542 |
As can be seen from the table, the government's forecasted oil revenues next year will decrease, but this is planned to be covered by an increase in various taxes, duties, excise taxes and duties.
Real budget deficit
Even with regard to income and expenses, one nuance should be clarified - the correct understanding of the size of the deficit. The point is that representatives of the authorities in the news, commenting on the federal budget, say: "Next year, the budget deficit of the Russian Federation will be at the level of (number) percent of GDP." What is wrong here?
GDP is the gross domestic product of the entire economy of the state, while the federal budget of Russia is the costs and expenses of all government agencies, i.e. only a small part of the country's economy. In other words, what the authorities say, comparing the budget deficit with the GDP, is like comparing the finances of an individual teacher with income. kindergarten... The number will come out less, but it does not give a real understanding of the level of costs and expenses of the employee.
In reality, if you look at the Russian budget for 2017 in figures, it turns out that its deficit is 20%. Simply put, the state spends 20% more than it earns!
What's interesting about the 2017 federal budget?
As already noted, there are several interesting points in the federal budget of the Russian Federation for the next year that can tell about what awaits Russians in the future. The most important ones are as follows.
Hiding military spending
According to official information, the state plans to cut military spending in 2017 - from 3.89 to 2.84 trillion rubles. At the same time, 2.771 trillion rubles of them are secret articles, the intended use of which practically no one controls. However, if we consider the budget expenditures that relate to the military, but are not spelled out in the article on defense, then we can find the same amount of funds allocated for the army.
Experts calculated that the 2017 budget will spend up to 4.5 trillion rubles on military spending. At the same time, a significant part of them, like the official expenditures for the army, are classified.
What are these funds spent on? Ideally, for the army and the provision of military personnel with everything they need, including housing and transport. But in reality, everything is a little different. For example, in 2016, the government allocated an additional 800 billion "secret" rubles to pay off loans that the army took in 2010 for rearmament. How the money taken on credit was spent can be found in the case of Evgenia Vasilyeva.
Who will be responsible for the budget adjustment?
The next curious fact, which can be noted, looking at the budget of Russia for 2017 in figures - they plan to cover the 20% deficit by using money from reserve fund and the sovereign wealth fund. Almost everything will be taken from the first - 50 billion dollars, from the second the missing part. At the same time, the failure will also be reduced due to the privatization of state property and budget adjustments:
- liquidation of part of long-term investment projects;
- mineralization of the indexing of civil servants' salaries;
- reduction of subsidies by region.
The forecast for the next year on key indicators for the Russian economy laid down in the document
- The average price per barrel of oil is $ 40.
- The average annual dollar exchange rate is 67 rubles.
- The projected GDP is $ 1.4 trillion (86.8 trillion rubles).
- The reserve fund in 2018 will be equal to 0.
- The size of the maternity is 453 thousand rubles.
In addition, adjusting the budget for next year will reduce the allocation to programs:
- "Economic development and innovative economy"- a decrease by 22.8%;
- "Promotion of employment of the population" - a decrease by 29.4%;
- "Healthcare Development" - a 25% decrease.
Summary
Summing up, we can say that the budget of Russia for 2017 in figures indicates the continuation economic crisis... At the same time, the Government does not have a plan to withdraw from it. They just want to wait it out, covering the lack of money with privatization and spending the reserve funds.
Battle for Budget 2017 - Completed
Every year the government of the Russian Federation develops and adopts the federal budget. On November 24, 2017, the State Duma adopted the federal law of December 5, 2017 N 362-FZ "On the federal budget for 2018 and for the planning period of 2019 and 2020", the main document of the country governing the principles of distribution Money describing directions economic development the state.
The document contains the planned income, and spelled out obligatory articles expenses. The main characteristic of the new budget is further cuts in government spending, which still remains above revenues.
General parameters of the RF budget for 2018
Since 2006, the federal budget in Russia is planned for a three-year period. This rule was violated when creating the document for 2008 and 2016, due to the peak of the crises. The current law again suggests a three-year plan state budget... For 2017, 2018 and 2019, the same goals and trends apply: every year the share of the deficit is reduced and the inflation rate is reduced by spending cuts.
V current project the federal budget deficit in 2018 was reduced to 1.271 trillion rubles. (previously - 1.332 trillion rubles), in 2019 - up to 819.1 billion rubles. (from 867 billion rubles), in 2020 - up to 870 billion rubles. (from 960 billion rubles).
Budget revenues in 2018 will amount to 15.257 trillion rubles (previously - 15.182 trillion rubles), in 2019 - 15.554 trillion rubles. (15.548 trillion rubles), in 2020 - 16.285 trillion rubles. (16.28 trillion rubles).
Expenditures in 2018 are projected at RUB 16.529 trillion. (previously - RUB 16.515 trillion), in 2019 - RUB 16.373 trillion. (16.415 trillion rubles), in 2020 - 17.155 trillion rubles. (17.24 trillion rubles).
Earlier, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that the main areas of federal budget spending in 2018-2020 remain the social sphere (36.4%), defense (29%) and support for the national economy (14.7%).
The Ministry of Finance has raised the forecast for the federal budget deficit for 2017 from 2.2% of GDP to 2.5% of GDP, according to the accompanying materials to the draft budget for 2018-2020. The law on the budget for 2017 and the planning period 2018-2019 provided for a budget deficit at the end of 2017 at the level of 2.1% of GDP.
Oil price and exchange rate in budgeting
Since Russia continues to be a resource-based country, that is, oil and gas producing industries generate a significant share of revenues, one of the key calculated indicators is the cost of oil on the world market. The adopted budget is based on the price of $ 40 per barrel.
At the same time, forecasts for the price of a barrel of oil by various specialists are extremely diverse. Another drop in prices to $ 40 and below is the most pessimistic forecast. Since April 2016, the indicator has not dropped below this mark, but only moved up. Today the numbers 50-55 sound more, they even admit an increase up to $ 70 per barrel. Too many factors can affect the dynamics: will the OPEC countries agree to restrain the supply of raw materials, will the United States resume shale oil production, will there be a recession in the Chinese economy, etc.
If, in reality, oil prices turn out to be higher than budgeted, as happened in 2016, the government will have the opportunity to partially compensate for the deficit. First of all it comes about replenishment of reserve funds, and not about additional spending.
An equally important indicator in drawing up the country's main financial document is the rate of the US dollar, the currency in which settlements are made on international transactions, including for the sale of raw materials. A further gradual and insignificant weakening of the ruble is predicted; the average rate for 2017 is 67.5 rubles per dollar. On the one hand, a cheap ruble makes imports more expensive, which means that many consumer goods will rise in price. This leads to an increase in inflation. On the other hand, the federal budget is calculated in rubles, social payments, salaries of state employees, payment of state orders is also made in rubles. Therefore, the income from oil and gas supplies at the current exchange rate, converted into domestic currency, turns out to be at the required level.
Expenditure
In order to simultaneously reduce inflation and reduce the budget deficit, when calculating the new document, the government of the Russian Federation took the reduction budget expenditures: in 2017 by 6%, in the next 2 years by 9% and 11%. The President's message spoke about saving funds that were spent irrationally earlier; in practice, there will be a reduction in funding for most areas and priority state programs.
As a result, the following items of expenses were recorded:
- general government expenditures - 1.135 trillion rubles;
- national defense - 1.121 trillion;
- security and law enforcement - 1.270 trillion;
- maintaining the national economy - 2,292 trillion;
- housing and communal services - 58.2 billion rubles;
- environmental protection - 76.4 billion;
- education - 568 billion rubles;
- culture and cinematography - 94 billion;
- healthcare - 377 billion;
- social policy - 5.08 trillion rubles;
- Mass media - 73.4 billion rubles;
- physical education and sports - 89.7 billion;
- service public debt- 729 billion rubles;
- interbudgetary transfers - 783.5 billion rubles.
Financing of health care, education (except for higher educational institutions), housing and communal services will be largely carried out at the expense of regional budgets.
About 17% of federal budget expenditures are classified, and only 6% of them are associated with spending on the country's defense and security.
What is included in national issues
The article on national issues includes the costs of supporting the activities of government bodies: the President, Government, governors, etc. This includes the salaries of officials, but it is important to note that the largest funds are intended for the Ministry of International Affairs and the President. The first point is explained by the presence of international conflicts and disagreements: the war in Syria, the Ukrainian conflict, relations with the West.
The federal budget for 2018 does not provide for unscheduled reserve costs. Potential spending on the elimination of the consequences of emergency situations, including natural disasters, the costs of fulfilling urgent orders of the Head of State are planned precisely from the funds allocated to ensure the work of the President.
Defense and security spending
The Ministry of Finance considered the easiest option to cut budgetary investments in those areas in which in recent years there was the maximum increase in funding. In particular, defense spending was discussed as exaggerated and not having a positive effect on the state of the country's economy. However, the current costs are largely a systematic solution to the task of rearmament of Russian troops, set by the President a few years earlier.
Many government orders were made before the crisis, and now it is more expedient to pay off as quickly as possible, so as not to overpay interest and prevent an extra financial burden on the budget in the coming years. And yet, in comparison with 2016, defense spending has decreased by more than 1 trillion rubles. At the same time, part of the costs related to the military is included in other budget items: support for military educational institutions - in education, arrangement of housing for military personnel - in housing and communal services, etc.
Regarding law enforcement agencies, another reduction in the number of police officers, mainly of the administrative apparatus, by 10% is expected. But there are plans to increase wages by 5%.
State investment in the economy
The volume of investments in the national economy was reduced by another 7.5% due to the termination or reduction of financing of some state economic programs. On the one hand, the suspension of federal subsidies for certain corporations and regional projects closes the road to the originally conceived development of certain industries or territories. On the other side, public investment at the expense of the budget in these areas are ineffective, ideally, it is required to attract business investors, and the tendency to reduce costs under this item will continue.
So far, the following programs have suffered the greatest losses:
- Socio-economic development Of the Far East -50,3%,
- Development of shipbuilding and equipment for the development of shelf deposits in 2013-2030 -30.3%,
- Energy efficiency and energy development -27.2%,
- Economic development and innovative economy -22.8%
At the same time, financing of such companies as Rosatom (77 billion rubles), Russian Railways (68 billion rubles), the Federal Corporation for the Development of Small and Medium Enterprises (14 billion rubles) will continue. Banks will again receive subsidies: first of all, Vnesheconombank, which is on the verge of bankruptcy (150 billion rubles), Rosselkhozbank, which provides loans to agricultural enterprises, Sberbank and VTB as part of support mortgage lending... The regions that are provided with the largest subsidies in 2018, as in the previous year, include Crimea, Sevastopol, the North Caucasus and the Kaliningrad region.
The fate of priority national projects
In a few recent years the government and the President of the Russian Federation approved 45 priority government programs... There are no resources in the 2018 budget for the full implementation of each of them. If earlier in accordance with The Budget Code it was allowed to leave about 2.5 percent of all expenses conditionally scheduled, they were intended for distribution to the most important projects and programs by decision of the government or the President, then this rule does not apply in the current financial document.
But the cost of a few priority projects provided:
- Healthcare development - 3.84 billion rubles
- Development of education for 2013-2020 - 42 billion rubles
- Mortgages and rental housing - 20 billion rubles
- Housing and communal services and urban environment - 10 billion rubles
- International cooperation and export - 41 billion rubles
- Small business and support for entrepreneurial initiative - 14.6 billion rubles
- Safe and high-quality roads - 30 billion rubles
- Integrated development of single-industry towns - 6.5 billion rubles
- Ecology - 20.19 billion rubles
Social policy at the head of the budget
Even before the federal budget for 2018 was considered, the state promised to fulfill its social obligations under any circumstances. Even in the context of a reduction in all spending on social benefits, 620 billion more were allocated than last year. This is due, among other things, to the increase in the number of recipients of various benefits.
The main part will go to pension payments, taking into account two indexations corresponding to the actual inflation rate. At the same time, the law on the advanced growth of pensions for rural residents has been postponed for 3 years, which makes it difficult to increase the level of well-being of the poorest pensioners.
The remaining 1.4 trillion rubles will be spent on all other benefits, the indexation of which will be 8%. This item also includes the costs of implementing the extended program. maternity capital... The established amount of payment for the birth of a second child remained at the level of 453 thousand rubles.
Despite the reduction in health care costs, it is planned to continue the construction of perinatal centers, equipping children's hospitals, equipping social facilities for comfortable use by people with disabilities. But many projects have been postponed indefinitely.
Sources of income
The revenue side of the budget is traditionally tax levies and customs duties.
- Mineral extraction tax
- Import and export customs duties on oil and gas
- Value added tax
- Excise taxes on alcohol, tobacco, fuel
- Corporate income tax
About 37% of the projected budget revenues for 2018 will come from oil and gas corporations. Last year, grain sales and tourism showed significant growth; in 2018, an appropriate level of income from these areas is expected.
They continue to operate, in general, there is a decline in the turnover of most enterprises, so the total tax collections will be lower than the pre-crisis years. But since 2018, the principle of deductions from the regions of corporate income tax has changed, instead of 2%, now the federal budget will receive 3% of fees.
In order to finance the coverage of the state budget deficit, it is planned to use the reserve fund in full in the amount of 1.2 trillion rubles and the fund national security in the amount of 659.6 billion rubles. This will cover two-thirds of the total deficit. The remaining amount should be covered through internal borrowing and privatization. It is planned to place bonds of state corporations and the Bank of Russia in the amount of 1.05 trillion rubles. According to the forecasts of the Ministry of Finance, the national debt will not exceed the safe level of 20% of GDP.
Opinions differ as to whether the adopted federal budget will lead to a positive shift in the country's economic development. The main financial document of the country was created taking into account the current external political and economic circumstances. But there is still hope for the settlement of interstate differences, the lifting of sanctions, and the stabilization of oil prices at a level not lower than $ 50 per barrel.
The new federal budget was adopted by 355 deputies, 99 representatives of the State Duma do not agree with it, accusing it of irrational distribution of costs: excessive spending on the state apparatus and banking system insufficient funding agro-industrial complex, weak support regions and ineffective investment in economic development. The government, in turn, insists on the maximum cost reduction. More than 60% of measures are aimed at these tasks. To search for options additional income the present time is not considered appropriate. Objectively, today the Russian economy is in the process of stagnation, and without tough measures to create balanced budget impossible.