Integral index of production. What is the industrial production index, why is it needed and what does it affect? How and by whom the index is calculated
The manufacture of products from raw materials using equipment, that is, production, is the basis modern economy any developed country.
And for effective development it is necessary that it grows and expands, that new factories and factories are built, and existing ones are modernized, that innovative technologies are introduced.
But how can we assess what level of development the industry is at? How to take into account the results of different industries, because “you can’t harness a horse and a trembling doe to one cart,” that is, you can’t add up shoes, for example, and carriages?
The index method comes to the rescue. The industrial production index is an indicator of the dynamics of production development, aggregated by type of activity.
The article contains the calculation of the IPP, its impact on economic development, the unemployment rate, stock indices and rates.
Production index
Production index - relative indicator, characterizing the change in the scale of production in the compared periods. The production index is used to analyze the dynamics of the physical volume of production.
There are individual and consolidated production indices. Individual production indices reflect changes in the output of one product and are calculated as the ratio of production volumes of a given type of product in physical terms in the periods being compared.
Summary production indices characterize cumulative changes all types of products and reflect changes in the value created in the production process as a result of changes only in the physical volume of products produced.
To calculate the consolidated production index, individual indices for specific types of products are gradually aggregated into indices by type of activity, subgroups, groups, subclasses, classes and sections of OKVED2 (OK 029–2014 (NACE Rev. 2).
Industrial production index – an aggregated production index by type of activity “Mining”, “Manufacturing”, “Providing electrical energy, gas and steam; Air conditioning", "Water supply; drainage, organization of waste collection and disposal, pollution elimination activities.”
Transition to the use of new versions of the All-Russian Species Classifier in statistical practice economic activity(OKVED2) and the All-Russian Classification of Products by Types of Economic Activities (OKPD2), harmonized respectively with the Statistical Classification of Types of Economic Activities in the European Economic Community (NACE Rev.2) and the Statistical Classification of Products by Types of Activities in the European Economic Community (CPA 2008), implemented from January 1, 2017.
The structure of gross value added by actual types of economic activity OKVED2 for 2010 is used as weights.
Data on Russian Federation according to the industrial production index and production indices by type of economic activity “Mining”, “Manufacturing”, “Providing electricity, gas and steam; Air conditioning", "Water supply; water disposal, organization of waste collection and disposal, pollution elimination activities” are given taking into account an adjustment for informal activities.
Source: "gks.ru"
The industrial production index is an indicator of the volume of “net production”
Industrial production index (IP) – an indicator of the volume of industrial production in the mining and manufacturing industries, in the field of energy saving and utilities. The index reflects the growth or decline of production and services in the country, excluding the construction sector. Otherwise it is called “clean production”. Expressed as a percentage.
Industrial production accounts for approximately 40% of the US economy, and is closely related to indicators such as GDP. The advantage of the index is that it takes into account only the volume of production, and not its monetary value.
This makes it one of the main indicators for reflecting the state national economy and, accordingly, an important fundamental unit influencing the movement of exchange rates. A growth in the indicator means a strengthening of the economy and contributes to the growth of the American currency.The index is recorded for 255 grouped sectors of the economy, each of which has a huge number of industrial enterprises. The data is based on work record records indicating the number of hours worked by workers in the industrial sector. The total volume for each month is expressed as a percentage of gross production compared to the previous year.
- In addition, the Federal Reserve Service (FRS) separately calculates the production diffusion index, which is equal to the percentage of industries where production increased over the past month.
- Also inextricably linked with the index of industrial production is another economic indicator - production capacity (Capacity Utilization). This is the ratio of total industrial output to the potential value of the total productivity of industries.
- Often, index values are analyzed together with the index of optimism of managers of the industrial sector (NAMP Index) and the unemployment rate (Unemployment Rates), since the growth of industrial production leads to a decrease in unemployment and, consequently, to an increase in the income of companies, their stock indices and, finally, GDP.
The IP Index is published monthly at 14-15 (GMT) or 17-15 (MSK) of every 15th day by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and shows the change relative to the previous month. Impact on the forex market: average.
The industrial production indicator is a reliable benchmark for tracking the business cycle. Indicators higher than expected are considered as positive for the dollar, lower than expected - as negative.
Source: "freshforex.org"
Impact of news on the Forex market
The principle of influence of this subgroup is based on the axiom that the value of any currency is derived from the state of development of the economy of a given country. The stability of economic development determines the interest of foreign investors in investing in it and, accordingly, the demand for a certain currency.
They include such key indicators as:
- trade and payments balances,
- inflation rate,
- unemployment,
- gross national product, etc.
On FOREX market a unified system of currency quotations through the American dollar has been developed. Thus, development American economy and the value of the US dollar is an important, if not decisive, factor in determining market direction, common to the major currencies.
Therefore, the main focus of currency brokers or dealers is on the US dollar and its “behavior” that causes certain reactions from other currencies. True, this does not at all reduce the influence of other factors - the policies of national banks or the influence of adjacent markets, which will be discussed briefly below.
Key indicators are published monthly or quarterly in the United States economic development:
Trade negotiations
Trade negotiations are an important part economic policy any country. In particular, the ratio of imports and exports provides such an important indicator of economic development as the trade deficit.
For the US, the trade deficit has been a major problem over the past few years, playing a significant role in the fall of the US dollar against major European currencies. The result of trade negotiations finds an immediate response in the market, sometimes more than significant.
Central bank meetings
The main task of central banks is to regulate the internal economic life of the country - as the main task.
In addition, adjusting the internal and external value of the currency is also his responsibility. Therefore, any meetings central bank- or more precisely, its working committee - attracts the close attention of participants in the foreign exchange market.One of the main means of stimulating or, conversely, slowing down economic growth, attracting foreign capital, attractiveness government bonds, and, as a result, the value of the currency, is the regulation of interest rates.
Source: "krok-forex.ru"
Industrial Production
Industrial Production – industrial production index. The indicator reflects changes observed in US industrial production in industries such as mining, manufacturing, electricity and gas (adjusted for inflation).
Who counts and how and why is it important?
The indicator is calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and US trade associations. Each index in the report is derived using the Fisher formula:
where M is the mass of money in circulation,
V – speed in revolution,
P – product price,
Q – volume of goods.
When calculating, the base year is 2000, and the initial level is always 100. Changes in each index are considered as volume or decline in a specific industry sector.
The index is published monthly, 16 days after the month following the reporting month, at 9:15 AM ET. As a rule, after its release there is no increase in trading, but the index is important because it reflects data on employment and worker income, and can indirectly speak about business activity.
How to interpret this indicator
An increase in the index in the short term should be considered as an increase in business activity and employment. An increase in the index will indicate an increase in employment, and, as a rule, marks an increase in inflation and an increase in interest rates, which is not promising for investors, since it does not promise an increase in profits.
In the same situation, the stock market may go up, because employment growth “promises” that the population will spend more, which is very good for business. A decrease or slight increase in Industrial Production will most likely form a negative scenario on the stock market.
Source: "ffin.ru"
IPP
One of the fundamental indices included in the macroeconomic indicator of any country is the Industrial Production Index (IPI).
The industrial production index is a macroeconomic indicator that characterizes changes in the production process for a set of services and goods grouped into the following types of the all-Russian classifier of economic activities: “Manufacturing”, “Mining”, “Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water”.
The industrial production index is calculated monthly and takes into account changes in the physical volumes of products produced, as well as working hours spent and energy consumed.
The output index covers the manufacturing sectors of the economy. The index is also an average of the manufacturing, mining, utilities and construction indices. It is based on physical volume measures and excludes private and public services.The index of industrial production is an excellent method in research in cases where it is impossible to summarize, but needs to be compared. That is why one of the proven methods used in statistical calculations, which allows us to characterize changes in certain phenomena, is the index method.
The index method is designed to solve the following main problems:
- determining the characteristics of changes in the general level of complex socio-economic phenomena;
- analysis of the impact of each factor on the change in the indexed value by excluding the impact of other factors;
- analysis of the influence of structural changes on changes in the indexed value.
Calculation
When constructing the industrial production index, the following methods are used:
- direct measurement;
- an estimate that is based on a combination of data on working hours and energy consumption.
The index begins to form when data is received on the dynamics of production and release of goods of a certain line. Next, the division and formation of indices takes place depending on the type of economic activity.
For large populations, the index is averaged based on the constituent elements that form these populations.
When forming elementary, large and other aggregates into indices, a classification is created into groups, subgroups, sections, subsections, industrial and production areas, in accordance with the classifier of types of economic activity.
The index is calculated in next order:
- Indices are calculated that characterize changes in production for a specific reporting period of time, for example, from the beginning of the year or month.
- Indices are calculated that characterize changes in production over a certain past period in relation to the average monthly volume of the year taken as the basis.
- Indices are calculated that characterize the change in production in the current reporting period compared to the previous period, which are obtained by dividing the indices.
- The calculation of the industrial production index is carried out in several stages, as well as in repeated recalculations for each individual stage.
Also at this stage, an index of gross output is formed, but not value added. Further, when calculating the index, the generated indices at the first stage are combined into subgroups, then into groups and subclasses, classes, in accordance with OKVED.
Influence
The index of industrial production has a tremendous impact on the economic growth of any country. The growth of the indicator contributes to the strengthening and appreciation of the exchange rate national currency, economy and directly affects the market itself. In the foreign exchange market, the index indicator is also of great importance due to its connection with the dynamics of the business cycle.
Using the dynamics of the index in moments of anticipation of changes in the policies of central banks, it is possible to track the direction of these upcoming changes.
According to analytical data provided by competent organizations, when the production index decreases, there will not necessarily be a process of decreasing the profits of enterprises, since inflation increases the revenue and profits of producers even if in reality production does not grow.
This is something to ponder for any trader who considers the index a very important tool in assessing future performance, as well as assets in the market itself.
The growth of production itself has a positive effect on the balance of power in financial market, suggesting higher stock prices and contributing to positive investor sentiment.
This also means strengthening the country’s economy as a whole, including strengthening its position in the macroeconomics, and this in turn entails increased competition for goods in the main world markets, resulting in an increase in the trade balance and the exchange rate of the national currency.
It is believed that the industrial production index is not one of the important ones, but there have been cases when the use of this indicator from the economy has been useful for fundamental market analysis.
In turn, this indicates the need to consider each indicator separately if the goal is to conduct a high-quality and detailed analysis of the market and not become one of the traders who find themselves “out of work.”
Another important observation that has been studied and fully analyzed by many analysts is the following: when the industrial production index begins to grow faster than GDP, this indicates fundamental industries that are gaining growth rates.
When the growth of the index lags behind the growth of gross domestic product, there is a decline in the growth of the same industries.
The State Statistics Committee of the Russian Federation publishes reports on the dynamics of industrial production, which contains data on all indicators of volume dynamics, and for each of the following industries in particular:
- fuel industry;
- ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy;
- electric power industry;
- chemical industry;
- forest industry;
- printing;
- mechanical engineering and metalworking;
- light industry;
- medical industry;
- food industry.
In the Eurozone, data on industrial indices are distributed by Eurostat, in the USA - by the Federal Reserve System (which takes into account index performance for adjustments). monetary policy), in Japan – by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.
Source: "equity.today"
Industrial production
One of the most important components of the economy of any country is industrial production. At its core, industrial production is the production of ready-to-use products from raw materials using special equipment.
The development of production began in the Middle Ages, when people just began to engage in pottery, processing animal skins, etc. Already at the turn of the 18th-19th centuries, an industrial revolution took place in England, which later spread to other large countries. After this, production began to use machines and equipment instead of manual labor.
Nowadays, without modern industrial production it is impossible to imagine any developed country. For economic growth, new plants and factories must always be opened. Old enterprises must constantly improve, because technology is developing more and more rapidly every year, and competition is only growing all the time.Modern industry consists of two branches:
- The mining industry is carried out by companies that extract various metals, oil, gas, timber, etc.
- The manufacturing industry includes enterprises engaged in the processing and processing of extracted materials (mechanical engineering, petroleum products, building materials, woodworking, food and light industry, etc.)
How is an PPI considered?
In order to assess the level at which industry is located in a particular state, industry parameters are constantly being studied. For this purpose, a special indicator was introduced, which evaluates industry in the country. It is called the industrial production index (IPP, industrial production). This indicator shows changes in production volumes in a particular country.
It is calculated by dividing the amount of products produced for the current period by the amount of products produced in billing period, and the result is multiplied by 100 percent.
First, the index for each product is calculated, the weighting coefficients of these goods are determined, and with their help, indices for industries are calculated, which are subsequently summarized into a general index of industrial production.
As a result, you can look at both the overall indicator and for various sections and areas. The index takes into account the following components:
- production volumes;
- working hours;
- wasted energy.
The US Industrial Production Index is published by the research department of the US Federal Reserve on the 15th of the previous month. To predict the index, indices such as the industrial orders index and the business activity index are usually used.
The index is calculated both for the entire industry in general and for individual groups of goods. Goods are distributed according to
- Mining.
- Manufacturing industry.
- Distribution of utilities.
The industrial production index does not include construction production, since this market is subject to strong fluctuations, which will have too strong an impact on the overall indicator.
To study the construction market, there is a similar index that takes into account the same as well as the construction section. It's called the Manufacturing Production Index.
Impact of the index on the economy
Since the index is one of the main indicators of the state of the economy, the state’s GDP greatly depends on it. This is due to the fact that most of the industries that participate in the formation of GDP are also involved in the index of industrial production, for example, mining, electricity production, etc. Therefore, as a rule, Gross domestic product and IPP change in parallel to each other.
If industrial production grows faster than GDP, this indicates that industrial sectors are growing faster than other areas participating in GDP. Conversely, if industry grows slower than GDP, this means that the level of industry lags behind overall growth.In addition, based on this index, the following phenomena can be predicted:
- unemployment rate;
- stock indices;
- exchange rates.
The industrial production index greatly influences the currency of the country where the index is published. An increase in the index always leads to an increase in the value of the currency, and a decrease in the index means that the exchange rate will fall.
It is also worth noting that in order to make a decision on buying or selling a currency, it is necessary to compare the readings of the industrial production index with other economic parameters, such as business cycles, inflation rates, GDP, etc. This is important because the growth of this index may not be related to only with an increase in production, as well as with an increase in inflation or due to seasonal growth.
Source: "binaryoptionsfull.com"
Industrial Production Index
Country: USA.
- Definition: An indicator of the dynamics of production volume at enterprises in the manufacturing and mining industries, and in the public services sector.
- Description: Shows general release products of national factories, mines, the total volume of utilities, etc.
- Mechanism of influence: Rapid growth in production implies an increase in the cost of money and a fall in the bond market. However, since this indicator is easier to predict than others, changes in it are reflected in the price in advance and gradually.
- Degree of influence: 2.
- Publication Frequency: Published monthly in the middle of each month at 09:15 ET.
- Source: Federal Reserve
The Federal Reserve's statistical report contains an indicator of changes in the volume of production of the country's industrial enterprises, stocks and bonds of public utilities, and an estimate of the production capacity used.
Industrial production is a key indicator of the state of a country's industry. It accounts for about 40% of the entire country's economy, which justifies its high degree of influence on the stock market.
Of particular interest is the percentage change in industrial production compared to the previous month. If production increases, then the cost of money also increases, which involuntarily stimulates the stock market to grow and the bond market to fall.
Source: "forex2.info"
IP and share price
Component GDP – Industrial Production Index. This index can be considered a component of GDP, since it reflects changes in production volume in the following leading sectors of the economy:
- Mining
- Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water
- Manufacturing industries
Essentially, this index shows the change in GDP due to the leading fundamental sectors of the economy.
All companies in these industries underlie the capitalization of everything stock market Russia. These include: Lukoil, Gazprom, RusHydro, as well as the largest engineering companies.
The growth of the IPP informs about the growth of production, which increases profits, and in turn this is reflected in the growing price of shares of companies that are associated with industrial production:
If there is a decrease in PPI, the reverse process will not occur in mandatory, since inflation can increase producer profits and revenues even when real production does not increase.
For example, if we analyze data from 2009-2010-2011. we can get three PPI indicators:
We can interpret the obtained indicators as follows:
- in the first 4 months of 2010, 25% more services and goods were produced than in the first 4 months of 2009
- in April 2010, while production was 15% more than in April 2009
- but in April 2010, production was 23% less compared to March of the same year.
Comparison of GDP dynamics with the dynamics of the IPI indicator
When comparing the data presented above with changes in GDP over the same periods, we can draw a conclusion about how the volume of production has changed in fundamental industries relative to other service and manufacturing sectors:
- That is, if the IPI indicator increases faster than GDP, then this indicates an accelerated pace of development of fundamental industries directly.
- If the IPI indicator lags behind the growth of the GDP indicator, there is a reverse development trend.
Impact on share price
Undoubtedly, data on the growth of IPP has a positive impact on the market. But often they are already included in the price of shares at the level of previously made forecasts and therefore do not cause a sharp increase in shares, and sometimes, if a more significant increase in IPP was predicted than in fact, then the share price may decrease.
A technique for calculating potential profitability is often used, the essence of which is to compare the current and forecast value of a stock. The change in the IPI indicator is predicted by analysts and is included in the forecast for the share price of companies that form the fundamental sector of the economy. The forecast stock price is then compared to its current value, which creates the ability to determine the potential return of the stock.
For example, when predicting an increase in PPI:
- if a stock has a high potential return, this means that the expected growth in industrial production is not yet reflected in the current stock price;
- if the potential return of a stock is close to zero, then the current price already includes expectations for changes in the IPI among investors
conclusions
- The PPI, being part of GDP, allows us to identify changes in real production volume in fundamental sectors of the economy.
- By comparing the index of industrial production and GDP, one can determine the performance of companies in fundamental sectors of the economy relative to other sectors.
- Often, news about changes in the IPI indicator are already included in the stock price due to forecasts. Therefore, when real indicators are released, they do not always have a significant impact on quotes.
Source: "tempofox.com"
Description of the main economic indicators
As you know, the exit economic indicators state has a significant impact on the exchange rate of a given country. Below are the main indicators broken down by national economies.
United States of America (USA)
- Consumer confidence/Indicator of consumer confidence.
- Current account/Account balance current operations.
- Existing home sales secondary market.
-
Production orders include orders for durable goods (more than 50% of all orders) and non-durable goods:
- Non-durable goods include food, clothing, light industrial goods and goods designed to be used with durable goods.
- Durable goods include goods with a service life of more than three years. These include: cars, furniture, etc.
This indicator has a limited impact on the market. Particular attention is paid to trends in its development. An increase in the index value is a positive factor for the development of the national economy and leads to an increase in the dollar exchange rate. - GDP - Gross domestic product/Gross domestic product (GDP).
- Initial jobless claims/Number of initial applications for unemployment benefits.
- ISM Manufacturing/ISM Manufacturing Index. ISM - Institute Supply Management.
- ISM Non-Manuf. Composite/ISM Index for the non-manufacturing sector.
- Leading indicators index/Index of leading indicators.
It is a weighted average index of such indicators as:- "production orders"
- “number of applications for unemployment benefits”,
- "indicators money supply M",
- "size of the average working week"
- "real estate construction permits"
- prices of major shares,
- "orders for durable goods"
- "Consumer Confidence Index".
- New home sales/Volume of housing sales on the primary market.
- Net long-term TIC flows/Net volume of purchases of American valuable papers foreign investors.
- Nonfarm payrolls/Changes in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector. Payroll is payment statement, according to which salaries are paid to employees. This is a very strong indicator showing changes in the level of employment in the country. An increase in this indicator characterizes an increase in employment and leads to an increase in the dollar exchange rate.
- U. of Michigan confidence/Consumer confidence indicator from the University of Michigan.
This survey is an attempt to measure consumer optimism. The index has been calculated since 1967. It was originally set at 100. Has limited impact on the market as it may not reflect the actual state of the economy.
However, it has traditionally been used to forecast employment trends and the overall health of the economy. An increase in the index value is a positive factor for the development of the national economy and leads to an increase in the dollar exchange rate.Its value is published after the 20th of each month at 10:00 AM EST (New York).
Determines changes in the level of retail prices for a “basket” of goods and services. Index consumer prices is considered more reliable if it does not take into account the food and energy industries.
When calculating the index, prices for imported goods and services are taken into account. The consumer price index is the main indicator of the level of inflation in the country. This index is analyzed together with the PPI (Producer Price Index) indicator.
If the economy develops under normal conditions, then an increase in CPI and PPI indicators may lead to an increase in the main interest rates in the country.
This, in turn, leads to an increase in the dollar exchange rate, as the attractiveness of investing in a currency with a higher interest rate increases.
Its value is published in the middle of each month (shortly after the PPI is released) at 08:30 EST (New York).
It is the ratio between the amount of payments coming from abroad and the amount of payments going abroad. If payments received by a country exceed payments to other countries and international organizations, the balance of payments is active (positive balance); if, on the contrary, it is passive (negative balance).
A positive balance (or a decrease in the negative balance) is a favorable factor for the growth of the national currency. Has limited impact on the market.
Its value is published every quarter, in the middle of the publication month at 10:00 EST (New York).
Shows the number of houses sold on the secondary real estate market per year. Can provide insight into consumer optimism (buying confidence) and their ability to buy expensive items. Due to the nature of the real estate market, these data are subject to seasonal fluctuations.
The construction process is directly related to the state of income of the population, therefore an increase in construction volumes characterizes the improvement of its well-being and the healthy development of the economy. Has limited impact on the market. An increase in its value has a positive impact on the exchange rate of the national currency.
Its value is published every month after the 20th at 10:00 EST (New York).
Its value is published on the first day of each month at 10:00 EST (New York).
It is the main indicator reflecting the state of the national economy.
According to Keynesian model economic development, GDP can be represented as follows:
GDP = C + I + S + E - M,
where C is consumption,
I - investments,
S - government spending,
E - export,
M - import.
GDP is expressed as an index relative to the previous period of consideration, and as an absolute value of the sum of prices of goods and services produced. Has a significant impact on the market. GDP growth leads to an increase in the exchange rate of the national currency.
It is one of the main indicators reflecting the state of the national economy. The index shows the level of change in the output of industrial production and public services in the country.
Its value is published in the middle of each month at 09:15 EST (New York). Has a significant impact on the market. An increase in this indicator leads to an increase in the exchange rate of the national currency.
It is the difference between the sum of prices of goods exported outside a given state and the sum of prices of goods imported into the territory of this state. That is, the difference between exports and imports. If the sum of prices of exported goods exceeds the sum of prices of imported goods, then the trade balance is active (positive balance); if imports exceed exports, it is passive (negative balance).
A positive balance (or a decrease in the negative balance) is a favorable factor for the growth of the national currency. Has a significant impact on the market.
Its value is published on the third week of each month (usually Thursday) at 08:30 EST (New York).
Shows the weekly change in the number of claims for unemployment benefits. Published every week on Thursdays at 08:30 EST (New York).
These numbers do not always reflect the true picture of events, as they are sometimes distorted by short-term factors such as federal or local holidays. This indicator can give an idea of what the Nonfarm payrolls will be next time.For example, if the value of the Jobless claims indicator consistently decreases over the course of a month, then there is a high probability that the value of the Nonfarm payrolls indicator will be high. Has limited impact on the market. A decrease in the number of applications for unemployment benefits is a favorable factor for the growth of the dollar.
The index, calculated by this organization, represents the results of a survey of purchasing managers in the industrial sector. The indicator is used to assess changes in new production orders, industrial output, employment, as well as inventories and supplier speed.
Figures below “45-50” are an indicator of a slowdown in economic development. Often the value of this index is influenced by psychological factors rather than the actual state of affairs.
The index does not include the state of California. Since industrial production is not a source of consumer demand, this indicator is approached with caution. Has limited impact on the market. An increase in the index value leads to an increase in the dollar exchange rate.
The value is published on the first business day of each month at 10:00 AM EST (New York).
Represents the results of a survey of managers in the service sector in order to assess the changes taking place in this industry. Figures below “45-50” are an indicator of a slowdown in economic development. Often the value of this index is influenced by psychological factors rather than the actual state of affairs.
The process of consumption of services tends to change at a relatively constant speed, therefore, sharp changes in the value of this indicator are influenced by psychological factors, and when analyzing the index, special attention is paid to this. Has limited impact on the market.An increase in the value of this index is a favorable factor for the growth of the dollar. Its value is published on the first day of each month at 10:00 EST (New York) one day after the publication of the ISM Manufacturing index.
It is believed that it characterizes the development of the economy over the next 6 months. There is also a rule of thumb that if the indicator value is in the negative area for three months in a row, it is an indicator of a slowdown in the country's economic development. Has limited impact on the market.
Its limited impact is explained by the fact that the index value is released a month after the reporting period, when almost all the main indicators have already been published.
An increase in the index value leads to an increase in the dollar exchange rate. Its value is published, as a rule, on the first day of each month at 10:00 EST (New York).
Shows the number of housing sold on the primary real estate market per year. Can provide insight into consumer optimism (buying confidence) and their ability to buy expensive items.
Represents the difference between the volume of securities purchases by foreign investors from US resident sellers and the volume of securities sales by foreign investors to US resident sellers. This refers to various categories of long-term securities.
It is called "the indicator that moves markets." There is a rule of thumb that increasing its value by 200,000 per month equates to increase in GDP by 3.0%.
Typically published on the first Friday of each month at 08:30 EST (New York).
Determines the change in the price level for the “basket” of goods produced in industry. Until 1978, it was called the Wholesale price index. This index consists of two parts: purchase prices (semi-finished products, components, etc.) and selling prices ( finished products). The selling price includes the cost of labor and gives an idea of the inflation associated with changes in labor costs.
The Producer Price Index is considered more reliable if it excludes the food and energy industries. When calculating the index, prices for imported goods and services are not taken into account.
Has a significant impact on the market. In anticipation of an increase in key interest rates, an increase in its value leads to an increase in the dollar exchange rate.
Published every month, usually the week following the release of Nonfarm payrolls, at 08:30 EST (New York).
The index shows changes in sales volume in the area retail. Characterizes the level of consumer spending and demand. This indicator is divided into: “car sales” and “sales of everything else.” Since the number of cars sold is a very variable value, the most accurate information is contained in the part of the indicator that does not take into account “car sales”.
The growth in retail trade is a positive factor for the development of the national economy and leads to an increase in the exchange rate of the national currency. Has a limited impact on the market (mainly in the mid- and long term).
Published in the middle of each month at 08:30 EST (New York).
Shows the percentage of the number of unemployed people to the total number working population. It comes out simultaneously with the “Nonfarm payrolls” indicator. Has a significant impact on the market. Typically, an analysis of the unemployment rate is carried out in the context of figures reflecting the value of the “Nonfarm payrolls” indicator.
For example, an increase in the value of the “Nonfarm payrolls” indicator with an increase in the unemployment rate indicates an increase in unemployment in the agricultural sectors of the economy, etc. Given the expectation of an increase in basic interest rates, a decrease in its value leads to an increase in the dollar exchange rate.Published, as a rule, on the first Friday of each month at 08:30 EST (New York) simultaneously with the Nonfarm payrolls indicator.
This index represents the results of a consumer survey on confidence in current economic situation. The survey is conducted by employees of the University of Michigan, USA. The report is published twice a month: in the second week (usually on Friday) around the 15th of the reporting month (preliminary), and two weeks later (final).
This indicator is nothing more than a reflection of consumers' desire to spend their money. Has limited impact on the market. An increase in the index value leads to an increase in the dollar exchange rate.
Published at 10:00 EST (New York).
Japan
- Current account total/Balance of payments.
- Consumer price index (CPI)/Consumer Price Index.
- Industrial production/Change in the volume of industrial production.
- Leading indices of business conditions (LEI)/Indices of leading and coinciding indicators.
- Retail sales/Change in retail trade volume.
- Tankan report/Quarterly economic review, published by the Research and Statistics Department of the Bank of Japan.
Quarterly Economic Review published by the Research and Statistics Department of the Bank of Japan.
The review is compiled based on assessments of more than 8,000 companies, firms and institutions on the following economic parameters:
- business conditions;
- production and sales;
- supply and demand, price level;
- income;
- direct investments;
- employment;
- tax conditions.
- Domestic CGPI (Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index)/Wholesale Price Index.
The indicator is the ratio between the amount of payments coming from abroad and the amount of payments going abroad. If payments received by a country exceed payments to other countries and international organizations, the balance of payments is active (positive balance); if, on the contrary, it is passive (negative balance).
A positive balance (or a decrease in the negative balance) is a favorable factor for the growth of the national currency. Published monthly. The indicator is taken into account by the market.
Shows the level of change in industrial production in the country. The initial index value is released at the end of each month. After two weeks, the updated index value is released. An increase in this indicator leads to an increase in the exchange rate of the national currency. Has a significant impact on the market.
The Leading Indicators Index is a weighted average of 13 different leading indicators. Used to determine the future state of the economy.
The index of coinciding indicators consists of 11 indicators and is designed to assess the current state of the economy (an indicator level of 50% is “zero”). Issued monthly. Weak influence on the market.The indicator reflects changes in the level of retail trade. The statistics cover department stores and supermarkets. Shows the level of consumer spending and demand. Published monthly. Has little influence on the market.
Tankan is the most important Japanese indicator.
High unemployment, although reflecting high labor efficiency, can jeopardize economic recovery because it encourages accumulation rather than consumption. Published monthly. The indicator is taken into account by the market.
Reflects changes in the price level of large quantities of goods. It is calculated as a weighted average of three components: domestic wholesale prices, wholesale export prices and wholesale import prices. This index is considered a better indicator of inflation than the CPI, as it directly reflects the state of the business sector. The indicator is taken into account by the market.
Great Britain
- Non-EU trade balance/Trade balance without taking into account trade turnover with EU countries.
- Gross domestic product (GDP)/Gross domestic product. The sum of goods and services produced in a country, expressed in prices. Despite the importance of the indicator, its influence on the market is reduced because its value is usually predicted by the market based on other data, and also due to repeated revisions of the GDP value after the first release. Published quarterly.
- Industrial production/Change in the volume of industrial production.
- M4 money supply/Change in the volume of the M4 money supply.
- Manufacturing production/Change in production volume of the processing industry.
- Producer input prices (PPI input)/Producer purchasing price index.
- Producer output prices (PPI output)/Producer selling price index.
- Purchasing managers index (PMI) / PMI Index PMI - Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (research institute for supply and demand).
- Retail price index (RPI)/Retail price index.
- Retail Sales/Change in retail trade volume.
- Claimant count rate/Unemployment rate.
The difference between exports and imports, expressed in prices. The index is gradually losing its influence on the market, as capital flows rather than goods become more important. At the same time, an increase in imports indicates an increase in the level of consumption in the country, and an increase in exports indicates an increase in the level of production. In the UK, it is customary to separately highlight the value of the trade balance with countries outside the European Union. Published monthly.
Includes the volume of production of the processing industry (manufacturing production), and also takes into account the volume of production in such industries as mining and processing of minerals, public utilities.
It is an indicator of economic growth. The indicator is not decisive for the direction of economic development, since more than 60% of the gross domestic product is currently provided by the service sector. Published monthly. The indicator is taken into account by the market.
The most commonly used indicator is changes in the money supply. Includes volume cash currency in circulation, the total amount of loans issued by banks, and the amount of government borrowing.
M4 is considered a good indicator for the inflation rate. Published monthly. The indicator is taken into account by the market.
It is an indicator of economic growth. The value of the indicator for the market is small, since the contribution of the manufacturing industry to the gross domestic product is Lately less than 20%. Published monthly.
It is defined as a change in the price level for components and semi-finished products in industry (an increase in purchase prices may not affect the inflation index, since it is possible to reduce costs in the production process).
A strong indicator of inflation. Of the total indicator value, a part is usually isolated that does not take into account prices for food, alcohol, tobacco products and fuel (prices for these goods are considered a very variable value). Published monthly. The indicator is taken into account by the market.Defined as a change in the level of selling prices for goods in industry. A strong indicator of inflation. Reflects inflationary pressures on the economy from producers (an increase in selling prices may not affect the inflation index, since trade costs may be reduced).
Of the total indicator value, a part is usually isolated that does not take into account prices for food, alcohol, tobacco products and fuel (prices for these goods are considered a very variable value). Published monthly. Has a significant impact on the market.
The index reflects changes in the rate of industrial production. Published monthly. An indicator value above 50% reflects an increase in the rate of industrial production, below 50% - a slowdown. The indicator is taken into account by the market.
Determines changes in the price level for a “basket” of consumer goods. The indicator of the inflation rate is the retail price index excluding payments for mortgage loans.
The retail price index, calculated using a single formula, for comparison with similar indices in other countries, is called harmonized (HICP). If the index growth rate exceeds the planned value, then the Bank of England usually increases interest rates. Published monthly. Has a significant impact on the market.
It is an indicator of the level of consumption. If the level of consumption is higher than the level of production, this usually leads to increased inflation. It should be noted that the monthly retail sales index is a very variable value. The average value of the index over the previous three months better describes what is happening. Published monthly. The indicator is taken into account by the market.
Claimant count - the number of applications of unemployed people for employment in employment centers. The lower the unemployment rate, the more people are paid, causing inflation to rise. Published monthly. The indicator is taken into account by the market.
Germany
- Gross domestic product (GDP)/Gross domestic product (GDP).
- IFO survey/Review of the German research institute IFO.
- Industrial production/Change in the volume of industrial production.
- Factory orders/Change in the volume of production orders.
- Producer price index (PPI)/Producer Price Index.
- Retail sales/Change in retail trade volume.
- Unemployment/Unemployment level. The indicator is very important for policymakers in Germany and Europe (since Europe traditionally has a high unemployment rate, which causes concern among the population). Has a strong influence on decisions made by politicians and the central bank. Published monthly. Has a significant impact on the market.
- ZEW Survey/Review of the German research institute ZEW.
The sum of goods and services produced in a country, expressed in prices. The value of the indicator, by the time it is released, is usually well predicted by the market based on other data, so it does not have a big impact on the market. Published quarterly. The index value is revised several times.
The survey assesses the level of business activity in the country. The indicator value can vary from 80 to 120; the level of business activity in 1991 is taken as 100.
Published monthly. Has a significant impact on the market.
Shows the change in the volume of products produced by the manufacturing industry. Published monthly. The indicator is taken into account by the market.
Determines the change in the selling price level for industrial goods. It is an indicator of inflation. Published monthly. The indicator is taken into account by the market.
It is an indicator of the level of consumption. If the level of consumption is higher than the level of production, this usually leads to increased inflation. Published monthly. The indicator is taken into account by the market
A key indicator of investor confidence. Calculated based on a survey of 322 analysts and institutional investors. Reflects the ratio of positive and negative economic expectations for the next six months.
If the majority of respondents are optimistic, the indicator is above zero. If you are pessimistic - lower. Has a significant impact on the market.
Eurozone
- CPI/Consumer Price Index.
- GDP/Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
- Industrial production/Change in the volume of industrial production.
- Purchasing managers index (PMI)/PMI Index.
- Trade balance/Foreign trade balance.
- Unemployment rate/Unemployment level.
Determines changes in the price level for a “basket” of consumer goods. The consumer price index is the main indicator of the level of inflation in the country. Published monthly. The indicator is taken into account by the market.
The sum of goods and services produced in a country, expressed in prices.
The value of the indicator, by the time it is released, is usually well predicted by the market based on other data, so it does not have a big impact on the market. Published quarterly.
The index value is revised several times.
Shows the level of change in industrial production in the country. The indicator takes into account manufacturing and extractive industries, forestry and electricity generation. Published monthly. The indicator is taken into account by the market.
PMI - Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (supply and demand research institute). Reflects changes in the pace of industrial production. Published monthly. An indicator value above 50% reflects an increase in the rate of industrial production, below 50% - a slowdown. The indicator is taken into account by the market.
The difference between exports and imports, expressed in prices. The index is gradually losing its influence on the market, as capital flows rather than goods become more important.
At the same time, an increase in imports indicates an increase in the level of consumption in the country, and an increase in exports indicates an increase in the level of production. In the UK, it is customary to separately highlight the value of the trade balance with countries outside the European Union. Published monthly.The indicator is very important for policymakers in Germany and Europe (since Europe traditionally has a high unemployment rate, which causes concern among the population). Has a strong influence on decisions made by politicians and the central bank. Published monthly. Has a significant impact on the market.
Federal Agency for Education
Russian State University of Oil and Gas named after I.M. Gubkin
Department of Financial Management
Coursework on the topic:
Methodology for calculating the main indices
industrial production.
Completed Checked
Student gr. EU-08-2 senior teacher Kvitko N.S. Tarasenko P.F.
Moscow 2010
Introduction. 3
1. Main industrial production indices 4
1.1. Concept and classification of indices 4
1.3. Forms of indexes. 10
1.4.Scope of application of the main indices. 12
2. Technical and economic characteristics of OJSC “Tomskneft” VNK for 2007-2009. 13
3.1. Calculation of individual indices. 17
3.2. Calculation of aggregate indices. 19
3.3. Calculation of the arithmetic mean and harmonic indices. 22
3.4. Calculation of chain and basic indices. 26
Conclusion. 29
References: 31
Introduction.
In statistics, general indicators in the form of averages, relative values and various coefficients are widely used to characterize processes and phenomena in various spheres of social activity. The most important general indicators include indices. Indices form the most important economic indicators of the national economy and its individual sectors.
Indices are an indispensable research tool in cases where it is necessary to compare two populations in time or space, the elements of which cannot be directly summarized. Therefore, one of the common methods used in statistical research and allowing to characterize changes in complex phenomena is the index method.
In general, the index method is aimed at solving the following problems:
1) characteristics of the general change in the level of a complex socio-economic phenomenon;
2) analysis of the influence of each factor on the change in the indexed value by eliminating the impact of other factors;
3) analysis of the influence of structural changes on changes in the indexed value
Each of these problems is solved using different indices.
This course work consists of two main parts: theoretical and practical.
The theoretical part provides a general concept of indices and their classification, as well as forms and types of indices and their scope of application.
The practical part provides a detailed description of OJSC Tomskneft VNK for 2007-2009, and also describes in detail the calculation and analysis of the main industrial production indices based on data for OJSC Tomskneft VNK.
1. Main industrial production indices
1.1. Concept and classification of indices
The word “index” has several meanings: indicator, index, inventory, register. It is used as a concept in mathematics, economics, meteorology and other sciences.
In international practice, indices are usually denoted by symbols i And I(the initial letter of the Latin word index). Letter " i" are indicated by individual (private) indices, the letter " I" - general indices. The sign at the bottom right means the period: 0 – basic, 1 - reporting. In addition, certain symbols are used to denote indexed indicators:
q- quantity (volume) of any product in physical terms;
p- unit price of goods;
z- unit cost of production;
t- time spent on producing a unit of product;
w- production output in value terms per worker or per unit of time;
v- production output in physical terms per worker or per unit of time;
T- total time expenditure (tq) or number of workers;
pq- cost of production or turnover;
zq- production costs.
All economic indices can be classified according to the following criteria:
extent of coverage of the phenomenon;
comparison base;
type of scales (co-meter);
form of construction;
the nature of the research object;
object of study;
composition of the phenomenon;
calculation period.
By coverage Phenomena indices can be individual or consolidated. Individual indices serve to characterize changes in individual elements of a complex phenomenon. An example of this would be changes in production volumes individual species products, as well as prices for shares of any enterprise. To measure the dynamics of a complex phenomenon, the components of which are directly incommensurable (changes in the physical volume of production, including goods of different names, the price index of shares of regional enterprises, etc.), summary, or general, indices are calculated.
If the indices do not cover all the elements of a complex phenomenon, but only part of them, then such indices are called group or subindices, for example, indices of the physical volume of production for individual industries, price indices for groups of food and non-food products. Group indices reflect patterns in the development of individual parts of the phenomena being studied. Such indices reveal their connection with the grouping method.
Based on comparison All indices can be divided into two groups: dynamic and territorial. The first group of indices reflects changes in the phenomenon over time.
When calculating dynamic indices, the value of the indicator in the reporting period is compared with the value of the same indicator for the previous period, which is called the base period. However, both forecast and planned indicators can be used as the latter.
Dynamic indexes can be basic or chain.
The second group of indices (territorial) is used for interregional comparisons. These indices are of great importance in international statistics when comparing indicators of socio-economic development of different countries.
By type of scale indices are divided into indices with constant and variable weights.
Depending from the form of construction , aggregate and average indices differ. The latter are divided into arithmetic and harmonic. The aggregate form of general indices is the basic form of economic indices. Average indices are derivatives; they are obtained by transforming aggregate indices.
Depending on the nature of the scope of the study There are indices of quantitative (volume) indicators and indices of qualitative indicators. Indices of volume indicators include indices of trade turnover, physical volume of production, national consumption income, etc. Indices of quality indicators include indices of prices, labor productivity, cost, etc.
By object of study There are indices: labor productivity indices, cost indices, product cost indices, indices of physical volume of production, etc.
According to the composition of the phenomenon Two groups of indices can be distinguished: indices of constant (fixed) composition and indices of variable composition. The division of indices into these two groups is used to analyze the dynamics of average indicators.
By calculation period indices are divided into annual, quarterly, monthly, and weekly.
1.2. Types of indexes
The simplest indicator used in index analysis is individual index , which characterizes the change over time of economic values related to one object. Depending on the economic purpose, individual indices are: physical volume of production, cost, prices, labor intensity, etc. An individual index is denoted by the letter i and is accompanied by a subscript of the indicator being indexed.
General view of an individual index:
Where: x – indexed value
1 – reporting period
0 – base period
Most often used in economic calculations general indices , which characterize the change as a whole. The construction of these indices is the content of the index methodology.
General indices are built for quantitative (volume) and qualitative indicators. Depending on the purpose of the study and the availability of source data, different forms of constructing general indices are used: aggregate and weighted average.
The general index is indicated by the letter I and is also accompanied by a subscript of the indicator being indexed.
The peculiarity of general indices is that they express the relative change in complex phenomena, the individual parts and elements of which are directly incommensurable, and therefore indices are synthetic indicators.
In some cases, it is necessary to compare data not for two, but for three or more periods. In such cases, it is necessary to select a comparison base. Depending on the basis of comparison, there are basic and chain indices .
Under basic indices understand such indices that have the same time period taken as the basis for calculations.
If, when calculating the index, the base for calculations changes and the period preceding the calculation of the index is taken as such a base, then the index will be called chain . Basic indices provide a more visual description of the general trend in the development of the phenomenon under study, while chain indices reflect the sequence of changes in levels over time.
Chain and basis index systems can be constructed for individual and general indices.
A system of indexes with constant weights is a system of summary indices of the same phenomenon, calculated with weights that do not change when moving from one index to another. Constant weights make it possible to eliminate the influence of structure changes on the index value:
. It is a system of base indices with constant weights.
And the system of chain indices with the same constant weights can be represented as follows:
.
Variable weight index system is a system of summary indices of the same phenomenon, calculated with weights that sequentially change from one index to another. Variable weights are the weights of the reporting period.
System of basic indexes with variable weights:
Chain index system with variable weights:
Indices are widely used to analyze the role of individual factors in the dynamics of some complex phenomenon, the change of which is due to the action of several factors.
To characterize changes in qualitative indicators of the average salary of one employee, labor productivity, etc., variable and fixed composition indices are used.
Index of variable composition is called an index that expresses the ratio of average levels of the phenomenon being studied, relating to different periods of time.
Index of permanent (fixed) composition is an index calculated with weights fixed at the level of one period and showing changes only in the indexed value.
Under index structural changes understand the index characterizing the influence of changes in the structure of the phenomenon being studied on the dynamics of the average level of this phenomenon.
The index is determined by the formula (when studying the average level of the indicator)
The system of interrelated indices when analyzing dynamics has the form:
There are relationships between the most important indices that make it possible to obtain others based on some indices. The existing relationships between the most important indices make it possible to identify the influence of various factors on changes in the phenomenon being studied.
1.3. Forms of indexes .
There are two main forms of indices: aggregate and average.
Aggregate form of index allows you to find for a heterogeneous population such a general indicator in which you can combine all its elements. This is a complex relative indicator that characterizes the average change in a socio-economic phenomenon consisting of incommensurable elements.
The numerator and denominator of the aggregate index are the sum of the products of two quantities, one of which changes (the indexed quantity), and the other remains unchanged (the weight of the index).
The general formula for the aggregate index is:
Where: x-indexed value,
The indexed value is the characteristic whose change is being studied (price of goods, stock price, number of goods sold, etc.). The weight of the index is a value that serves for the purpose of measuring the indexed values.
The economic content of the index predetermines the methodology for its calculation, which involves solving three issues:
what value will be indexed;
according to what composition of heterogeneous elements of the phenomenon it is necessary to calculate the index;
which will serve as weight when calculating the index.
When choosing an index weight, it is customary to be guided by the following rule: if an index of a quantitative indicator is constructed, then the weights are taken for the base period; when constructing an index of a qualitative indicator, the weights of the reporting period are used.
In practice, when calculating indices, some of the necessary information may be missing or be based on the results of sample surveys, which last years are becoming increasingly important in statistical work. In such cases, instead of indexes in aggregate form, it is more convenient to use arithmetic averages and average haharmonic indices. Any composite index can be represented as a weighted average of the individual indices. However, in this case, the form of the average value must be chosen in such a way that the resulting average index is identical to the original aggregate index.
Average index is an index calculated as the average of the individual indices. When calculating average indices, two forms of averages are used: arithmetic and harmonic.
The arithmetic average index is identical to the aggregate index if the weights of the individual index are the terms of the corresponding aggregate index. Only in this case, the value of the index calculated using the arithmetic mean formula will be equal to the aggregate index.
the value is known;
Then
The average harmonic index is identical to the aggregate index if the individual indices are weighted using the terms of the numerator of the aggregate index.
known ;
The harmonic mean index is the harmonic mean of the individual indices, the weights of which are the numerator of the aggregate index.
1.4.Scope of application of the main indices.
Indices make it possible to analyze the performance of enterprises and organizations that produce a wide variety of products or are engaged in various types of activities. Using indices, you can trace the role of individual factors in the formation of the most important economic indicators and identify the main production reserves. Indices are widely used in comparing international economic indicators when determining living standards, business activity, pricing policy, etc.
In economic work, using indices, it is possible to objectively and accurately show changes in the growth or decline of production, changes in productivity, the state of the cost and prices of products, the number of employees, labor productivity, wages, changes in the price of shares in stock markets. For example, average indices are widely used to analyze the stock market. The most famous are the Dow Jones, Standard and Poor indices.
2. Technical and economic characteristics of OJSC “Tomskneft” VNK for 2007-2009.
Open Joint Stock Company "Tomskneft" of the Eastern Oil Company is the main oil producing enterprise in the Tomsk region. It was created in July 1993, when the privatization of the Tomskneft production association, established in January 1966, took place. The company produces oil and gas, develops oil fields, conducts geological prospecting, prospecting, surveying, topographic-geodetic, cartographic work, and is engaged in the development of fields in the Tomsk region and the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug.
Until mid-2007, Tomskneft belonged to the Yukos oil company. Then, as part of the sale of Yukos property, it was sold to Neft-Aktiv, an affiliate of Rosneft. At the end of December 2007, 50% of Tomskneft shares were sold to Gazprom Neft.
OJSC Tomskneft VNK is developing a number of old fields with a water cut above 80% (Nizhnevartovskoye, Strezhevskoye, Chkalovskoye, Olenye, Sovetskoye), as well as a number of relatively young fields (Krapivinskoye, Dvurenchenskoye, Zapadno-Moiseevskoye, Igolsko-Talovoe). The largest field of Tomskneft is Sovetskoye. It was opened in 1962 and put into operation in 1966.
Tomskneft fields are well provided with transport infrastructure. Oil from Tomskneft fields is supplied via the Transneft main pipeline mainly to the Achinsky and Angarsky oil refineries of Rosneft, located in comparative proximity.
OJSC Tomskneft VNK is a leading oil company, the largest taxpayer in the region, providing a 30% share of tax payments to the budget of the Tomsk region. The main base city of Tomsk oil workers is Strezhevoy. The population of Strezhevoy is about 44.2 thousand people.
OJSC Tomskneft VNK is the owner of 26 licenses for oil and gas production in the fields of the Tomsk Region and the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug, 7 licenses for the right to use subsoil for the purpose of geological study and oil production in the fields of the Tomsk Region. The volume of oil production of JSC Tomskneft VNK in 2009 amounted to 10.869 million tons, gas - 2067 million cubic meters.
Over 44 years of work:
More than 445 million tons of oil were produced.
More than 20 million meters of rock have been drilled.
3,307 km of high-voltage power lines were built.
5575.5 km of pipelines for various purposes were built.
More than 1,223 km of paved roads have been built.
The main technical and economic indicators of the activities of OJSC Tomskneft VNK are presented in Table 3.
Table 1
Technical and economic performance indicators
OJSC "Tomskneft" VNK
Indicators |
|||
Revenue from sales of products, works, services, million rubles. |
|||
Oil production, tons |
|||
Net profit, million rubles. |
|||
Production costs (cost, administrative, commercial) million rubles. |
|||
Average number of employees, people. |
|||
Gas production, million cubic meters m |
|||
Cost of goods, products, works, services sold, million rubles. |
|||
Commissioning of new oil wells, wells. |
|||
Product profitability, % |
Let's build a diagram of revenue from sales of products, works and services for the period 2007-2009. (Fig.1.)
Fig.1. Revenue from sales of products, works and services of OJSC Tomskneft VNK for 2007-2009.
Having studied the graphs in Fig. 1, it can be noted that in 2009, revenue decreased significantly. In 2007 revenue amounted to 70,431.9 million rubles in 2008. it amounted to 73,800.3 million rubles, and in 2009. It decreased to 63,089.8 million rubles. This decline is primarily associated with a decrease in the cost of goods, products, works, and services sold. However, it should be noted that product profitability has increased, as well as net profit (for 2007 - 24,060.6, for 2008 - 6,231.3, for 2009 - 13,231.9), which can be seen in the graph shown in Fig. 2.
Fig. 2. Dynamics of changes in net profit of OJSC Tomskneft VNK for 2007-2009.
According to the graph, you can observe a significant change in net profit in this period: at the first stage they decreased by 17,829.3 million, and at the second they increased by 7,000.6 million rubles.
Indicators such as oil production, gas production and the average number of employees are almost stable, from which we can conclude that the production activities of the enterprise are stable.
3. Calculation of the main industrial production indices using an example OJSC "Tomskneft" VNK.
As an example of calculating the main indices of industrial production in the practical part of the work, data will be taken from the reports of OJSC Tomskneft VNK for 2007 - 2009.
3.1. Calculation of individual indices.
We will calculate individual indices of production volume, price and cost of certain types of products of OJSC Tomskneft VNK for 2007 and 2009.
table 2
Initial data for calculating individual indices.
Products |
Cost price, |
Volume of production, |
Product price, |
|||
As mentioned earlier, individual indices are indices that characterize changes in individual elements of a complex set. Individual cost indices are calculated using the formula: . So, if the cost price in 2008 is denoted z 1
, and in 2007, respectively, z 0, then the individual cost index will have the form: .
Thus, it is possible to find the cost price and volume indices of each element of each element.
Table 3
Individual indices
Products |
i z |
i p |
i q |
Thus, the cost of gasoline “AI-80” in 2008 increased compared to 2007 by 1.05 (by 5%), the cost of gasoline “AI-92” in 2008 compared to 2007 increased by 1,024 times (by 2.4%), and the cost of diesel fuel remained at the same level.
It is also clear from the calculation that product prices in 2008 compared to 2007 increased for all listed types of products, namely: for AI-80 gasoline - 1.006 times (0.6%); for AI-92 gasoline – 1.044 times (4%); for diesel fuel – 1.025 times (2.5%). The production volume of the AI-80 gasoline brand increased by 2%, the AI-92 brand decreased by 0.8%, and the production volume of diesel fuel increased by 2.4%.
3.2. Calculation of aggregate indices.
To determine the change in costs as a whole in 2008 compared to 2007, it is necessary to calculate the aggregate index of costs for manufactured products; for this it is necessary to divide the amount of products produced in 2008 by the amount of products produced in the base period. The production cost index characterizes the change in the total cost of production due to changes in the quantity of products produced and its cost. In this example, the products are of different names, so it is impossible to summarize them in physical terms. General indicator The volume of transported products can only be obtained if it is estimated, i.e. by summing up actual cash costs for individual types of products. But cash costs depend on the volume of production and the cost per unit. At the same time, not only the volume of production changes from year to year, but also the cost. Therefore, to characterize changes in costs, it is necessary to calculate products for both periods at the same cost in order to eliminate its influence.
For the convenience of calculations, I will create an auxiliary table.
Table 4
production cost index.
Types of products |
Cost, rub./t |
Production volume, thousand tons |
Costs, thousand rubles |
|||
z 0 q 0 |
z 1 q 1 |
|||||
or 101%.
Total costs at the same cost in 2008 compared to 2007 increased by 1%. The calculated index allows us to determine the absolute increase in costs at a comparable cost of 1 ton of products using the formula:
Δ q = Σ z 0 q 1 – Σ z 0 q 0 = 2511689.74 – 2463963.54 = 47726.2 thousand rubles.
To determine the relative change in cost for all types of products, it is necessary to calculate the cost index. The scales in this case will be production volumes in 2008. By multiplying the cost by the same quantity of products, you can get values that can be summed up and compared.
The cost index is calculated using the formula: or 101%.
The index shows that the cost increased by 1%, and thus, with the same number of products, costs increased due to an increase in the cost of 1 ton of products by 1% or in absolute terms by 28,361.38 thousand rubles. (2540051.12 – 2511689.74).
As can be seen from Table 5, in 2008, compared to 2009, there was a change in product prices, and in order to determine the relative change in price for all types of products, a price index can be calculated. In this index, the weights in the same way as in the cost index will be production volumes in 2008, only they will be multiplied by prices. Let's build an auxiliary table for the convenience of calculating the price index.
Table 5
Auxiliary table for calculation
price index
Types of products |
Price, rub./t |
Cost, thousand rubles. |
||||
p 0 q 0 |
p 1 q 1 |
|||||
Let's determine the price index: or 102%, this means that the price increased by 2%, and thus, with the same quantity of products, the cost increased due to an increase in the price of 1 ton of products by 2% or in absolute terms by 69,575.88 thousand rubles. (2967919.301–2898343.416)
The index of physical volume of production will be calculated as or 102%.
Cost index:
or 104%, this result indicates that the cost of production in 2008 increased by 4% compared to 2007.
The cost index can be obtained by multiplying the price index by the index of physical volume of production: I pq = I p * I q =1,02 *1,02 =1,04.
3.3. Calculation of the arithmetic mean and harmonic indices.
The average index is an index calculated as the average of the individual indices. But with this method of calculating indices, it is necessary to correctly select the form of the average and the system of weights for individual indices.
Calculations of the average harmonic price index, the average harmonic index of physical volume, the average harmonic price index and the average harmonic cost index can be carried out using the data in tables 6, 7. The basic rule for constructing these indices is that they must be identical to the aggregate one, and the weights of the individual indices they must contain the terms of the numerator of the aggregate index.
The harmonic average price index is then calculated using the formula:
. To calculate it, individual price indices by type of product are needed. These indices are presented in Table 2.
Table 6
Auxiliary table for calculating the average harmonic price index.
Types of products |
|
||||
Production volume, thousand tons |
Price, rub./t. |
Cost, thousand rubles. |
Individual price indices |
||
p 1 q 1 |
|
||||
Therefore, the average harmonic price index will be equal to:
or 102%. This means the price has increased by 2%.
Aggregate index , it follows that the calculated index is constructed correctly.
Let's build an auxiliary table for calculating the average harmonic and arithmetic indices.
Table 7
Auxiliary table for calculating average harmonic indices of physical volume and cost, arithmetic average price indices, cost and physical volume of products.
Types of products |
Cost, thousand rubles. |
conditional |
Costs, thousand rubles |
conditional |
Individual indices |
|
|
|
|
|||||
p 0 q 0 |
p 1 q 1 |
p 0 q 1 |
z 0 q 0 |
z 1 q 1 |
z 0 q 1 |
i z |
i p |
i q |
||||||
Let's calculate the average harmonic cost index according to Table 7:
or 101%. The index shows that the cost increased by 1%, the index coincides with the aggregate index, therefore the calculations were carried out correctly.
Let's calculate the average harmonic index of production volume according to Table 7:
or 102%, therefore the volume of production decreased by 2% compared to 2007.
Arithmetic average indices are the arithmetic average of the individual indices, weighted by the denominator of the original aggregate index.
Thus, we will calculate the arithmetic average indices of prices, costs and physical volume of products according to Table 7.
or 102%; which means the price has increased by 2%,
or 102%., therefore, the cost of production increased by 2%, due to a change in the cost of each product.
The average arithmetic indices fully correspond to the aggregate indices, therefore the calculations were carried out correctly.
3.4. Calculation of chain and basic indices.
If you need to compare data not for two, but for three or more periods, then you cannot do without calculating chain or basic indices (depending on the comparison base).
Let's consider the calculation of basic and chain indices with constant and variable weights using the example of OAO Tomskneft VNK.
Table 8
Dynamics of products sold and prices according to data
OJSC "Tomskneft" VNK
Types of products |
||||||
Table 9
Types of products |
q 0 p 0 |
q 1 p 1 |
q 2 p 2 |
q 1 p 0 |
q 2 p 0 |
q 2 p 1 |
Let us calculate the basic indices of the physical volume of products with constant weights (in 2007 prices):
;
;
The calculation shows that the physical volume of production in 2008–2009. lower than the physical volume of production of the base year (2007).
Let us define chain indices of the physical volume of production with constant weights:
;
.
For 2008-2009 there was an increase in the physical volume of production, while in 2008 it amounted to 2% compared to 2007, and in 2009 – 4% compared to 2008. Since the indices are calculated at 2007 prices, it is possible to compare the dynamics of changes in the indicator, and we can conclude that the largest physical volume of products was produced in 2009.
Let's calculate chain price indices with variable weights:
;
In 2008, product prices increased by 2% compared to 2007, in 2009 by 5% compared to 2008.
Basic and chain indices are interconnected, this is easy to see in our example, and at the same time check the correctness of the calculations:
The product of chain indices is equal to the base index of the last period. On in this example The relationship between the chain and basic indices of the physical volume of production is as follows:
This relationship is typical only for indices with constant weights.
The ratio of the subsequent base index to the previous one is equal to the chain index of the subsequent period.
Conclusion.
In my work, I provided theoretical data on the main indices of industrial production, and also examined a detailed technical and economic characteristics of the activities of the enterprise OJSC Tomskneft VNK for the period from 2007. for 2009, calculations of the main industrial production indices were made and a detailed analysis was provided.
The calculated industrial production indices characterize JSC Tomskneft VNK from an economic point of view and explain the dynamics of technical and economic indicators. Individual price indices for products reflect the increase in prices for motor gasoline of the AI-80, AI-92 and DT brands. Individual indices show the increase in all indicators, with the exception of the physical volume of AI-92. The aggregate index of the physical volume of production shows that the total costs at the same cost in 2008. compared to 2007 increased by 1%, therefore the physical volume of production increased by 1%. The calculated index allows us to determine the absolute increase in costs equal to 47,726.2 thousand rubles. The calculated aggregate cost index shows that the cost increased in 2008. by 21% or in absolute terms by 38,670.2 million rubles. Thanks to the calculated aggregate price index, it can be determined that prices in 2008. rose 1%. Having calculated the chain indices of the physical volume of production, one can notice that for the period since 2007. to 2008 There was an increase in the physical volume of production in 2008. it amounted to 2% compared to 2007, and in 2009. – 4% compared to 2008 Since the indices are calculated at 2007 prices, it is possible to compare the dynamics of changes in the indicator, and we can conclude that the largest physical volume of products was produced in 2007.
Indices best characterize the economic condition of an enterprise. Based on the calculated indices, we can say that the enterprise is on the path of extensive development, trying to cover the increase in costs by reducing production volume, increasing product prices and increasing the number of workers. The same can be noted if you look at the reporting of OJSC Tomskneft VNK for 2007-2009.
Using the example of calculating indices for OAO Tomskneft VNK, in my work I showed that indices are an important component of the economic analysis of the enterprise’s activities.
Bibliography:
Kalinina V.P., Didenko T.V. “Statistics of the oil and gas industry”, Moscow 1985;
T.V. Didenko, L.V. Kolyadov, P.F. Tarasenko “Statistics”, Moscow 2007.
Rudenko V.I., “Statistics, short course” Moscow 2006;
indices: - at the bottom of the decline...unemployment with changes in methodology determining the number of official unemployed, ... calculation per 1 thousand employed)
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