Forecast of the dollar for the week. Dollar exchange rate forecast
Let's see what the dollar exchange rate and its forecast for the week of November 19-23 promise us. Analysts' opinions and forecasts on how the ruble will behave against the US currency.
The ruble finished last week by rapidly strengthening its positions against the leading world currencies. As a result of trading on Friday, the dollar rate on the Moscow Stock Exchange was fixed at the level of 65.85 rubles / $, which is more than 2 rubles. below the close of the previous week. The strengthening of the Russian currency was facilitated by reports that the United States did not have time to adopt sanctions against Russia this year, as well as a rebound in oil prices.
Viktor Veselov, Chief Analyst of GLOBEXBANK Viktor Veselov:
We expect the ruble to weaken against the dollar in the first half of the week due to the redemption of Eurobonds of a number of large banks. This will require about $ 1.4 billion, based on data from the Bloomberg terminal. In addition, auctions for the placement of the new US national debt will play in favor of the dollar: 3 and 6-month bills, notes, 10-year bonds. But closer to Friday, the strengthening of the ruble will follow, because preparations for tax payments November 26 and 28.
Anton Pokatovich, chief analyst at BCS Premier:
Over the next week, the ruble will receive support from the traditional preparation for the tax period. We also believe that market participants will closely monitor the actions of the country's economic bloc. The Central Bank, in our opinion, in its latest statements regarding the likelihood of an increase key rate at the December meeting, he was able to sufficiently demonstrate the transparency of his position to the markets. If the dynamics of oil prices remain stable and there is no news that would refute the extension of the sanction deferral against the Russian Federation until the beginning of 2019, the ruble exchange rate will spend the next week in the range of 65.3-67.7 rubles / $.
Anatoly Saltykov, Head of Strategy Development Department, SMP Bank:
The Bank of Russia announced its intentions to consider raising the key rate at a meeting in December, which acts as a support factor for the ruble. At the same time, good statistics on retail sales in the US is an additional argument in favor of the Fed's rate hike, which the market also expects. This, in turn, supports the dollar. The started tax period plays in favor of the ruble. Oil quotes are growing, despite an increase in production and an increase in reserves, that is, there are no factors for confident growth, and what is happening in the markets now is more likely a rebound, not a trend reversal. Therefore, there are no guarantees of stable support for the ruble from oil. The sanctions rhetoric does not intensify, but risks remain. The combination of factors creates high volatility in the market, which will persist throughout the week. We expect fluctuations in the rate of the pair in the range of 65.5-68.50 rubles / $.
Maxim Timoshenko, CFA, Director of the Department of Operations at financial markets Russian Standard Bank:
In the coming week, the ruble will be supported by the starting tax period. It is worth noting that in addition, on the side of the ruble, the news about the postponement of part of the US sanctions against Russia will be postponed until early next year. In addition, the ruble is favored by an attempt to restore the oil price, which is taking place against the backdrop of hopes for a reduction in OPEC + production, designed to prevent an imbalance in supply and demand. And another important factor is the stopped growth of the US dollar against currencies. developing countries due to increased risk appetite amid resumption of trade negotiations between the US and China. And also on Russian currency Uncertainty over a second package of "chemical" sanctions, slated for late November 2018, will continue to weigh on.
Dmitry Kharlampiev, Director of Analytics, KIB Bank Otkritie:
The positive factors that we saw last week remain relevant. In theory, on Friday night, the second block of the package of sanctions against the Russian Federation by the United States should be introduced because of the "Skripal case", however, according to media reports, the final decision on this issue has not yet been made, and in themselves additional restrictions in this case don't have to be tough. We also note the approaching tax period in the Russian Federation, within which about 1.15 trillion rubles will be absorbed into the budget. in ruble terms. Now, we can say that the dollar exchange rate has a chance to fall to the level of 65 rubles. However, in the absence of additional triggers, the continuation of consolidation near 66 rubles is more likely.
Mikhail Poddubsky, chief analyst at Promsvyazbank:
We do not see any reasons for further strong weakening of the ruble from current levels in baseline scenario we expect the dollar / ruble pair to move in the coming week in the range of 67-68 rubles / $. At the moment, the weakness of the entire group of EM currencies is due to the general strengthening of the dollar, and in addition, for the ruble on the horizon of the coming weeks, there is a possibility of an aggravation of sanctions risks. Without the realization of these factors, the Russian currency at the moment looks undervalued.
Denis Davydov, Lead Analyst at Nordea Bank:
Further appreciable strengthening of the ruble is unlikely to be expected due to the continuing sanctions risks. The benchmarks for the rate-dollar pair next week will be 65.5-66.5. Taking into account the fact that sanctions risks have reduced their severity, the ruble will be more focused on the dynamics of emerging market currencies and oil prices. The factor of tax payments will continue to act as a support.
Analysts' forecast for the dollar exchange rate for 11/23/2018
Banks Forecast of the dollar exchange rate (RUB / $)
- Nordea Bank 65 - 66.8
- KIB Bank Otkritie 66
- Globex Bank 65 - 66.8
- Promsvyazbank 67-68
- "Russian standard" 65.50-66.60
- SMP-Bank 65.5-68.50
- Consensus 66.40
The consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic mean of analysts' forecasts.
The Russian currency corrected down on Friday trading, leaving the levels for the weekend ₽65.9800 / USD and ₽75,3500 / euro... Loss of the ruble - 8.2 kopecks. and 66.7 kopecks. respectively. The reason for the “sinking” is the urgent need for a correction after the rapid (by more than 2 rubles) growth on Wednesday-Thursday.
The energy market ended the previous week with a barrel of $ 66.76 ($ 1.14). The reason for the rise in the price of "black gold" is the hopes of traders to cut production by the OPEC + participants. Brent spends Monday morning in positive territory ($ 67.34 at 08:25 Moscow time), ignoring another increase in drilling activity by American shale companies (+2 rigs over the past week, to 888 units, according to Baker Hughes).
During the coming week, according to experts, the chances of the dollar and the ruble to strengthen their positions will be approximately equal. At the same time, there are no significant prerequisites for the weakening of the aforementioned currencies, say experts from Russian banks interviewed over the weekend.
- We do not see any reasons for a strong weakening of the ruble. In our baseline scenario, we are guided by fluctuations in RUR / USD within the range of ₽67.00-68.00 until the end of the week, - shared their expectations at Promsvyazbank.
- We expect the ruble to weaken in the first days of the week, with a subsequent restoration of positions closer to Friday, - predict the bankers of Globex.
The reasons for such movements, according to the analyst of the financial organization Viktor Veselov, will be the increased demand for dollar liquidity for the upcoming repayment of large Russian banks on total amount$ 1.4 billion and preparations for the "peak" tax payments on November 26 and 28.
The interval of dollar fluctuations announced by Globex analysts on Monday-Friday is RUB65.00-66.80. Exactly the same values for RUR / USD were announced by representatives of Nordea Bank.
- The positive factors observed last week will remain relevant in the coming days. On Friday night, the United States was supposed to introduce a second block of sanctions "because of Skripal", but there is still no final decision on this issue, according to American media reports. Moreover, the additional restrictions should not be overly restrictive. This "slowness" of American politicians definitely plays on the side of the ruble, as well as the upcoming tax payment period in the Russian Federation, within which it is expected to absorb about RUB 1.15 trillion into the budget. In such conditions, the dollar may decline to the level of ₽65.00. At the same time, in the absence of additional triggers, the continuation of consolidation near the 66-ruble mark is more likely, - the currency strategists of Otkritie Bank believe.
The factors of influence on the exchange rate listed in the above comments are considered relevant by analysts of other "top" banks of the Russian Federation. According to the representative of "Russian Standard" Maxim Timoshenko, the dollar rate this week will not go beyond the range of ₽65.50-66.60. Anatoly Saltykov from SMP-Bank predicts retention of the green in the range of ₽65.50-68.50, and his colleague from BCS-Premier Anton Pokatovich is guided by the stabilization of the pair in the zone of ₽65.30-67.70.
Finance, 03 Sep, 14:36
The dollar rate for the first time in two weeks exceeded 67 rubles. ... the maximum price of the American currency reached 67.085 rubles. Official rate dollar as of September 3, set by the Bank of Russia, is 66.62 rubles, euros - 73.17. Last time course dollar exceeded the mark of 67 rubles. August 19, and before that - only ... February. At the end of August, the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade named the only option for a rise in price dollar up to 70 rubles. - according to the calculations of the department, the rate can rise to ... US Treasury abandoned dollar interventions The United States does not intend to weaken the dollar... Trump previously complained about attempts by competitors to take advantage of the situation for the sake of political ... responded to speculation about possible US attempts to weaken the course dollar... The reason for the rumors was, among other things, Trump's message ... as follows: “Very strong dollar, very weak FRS ". Earlier, Trump himself expressed concern about strengthening dollar against country currencies ... The head of the Central Bank of England proposed to replace the dollar with a new reserve currency ... addicted to American economy, the role of emerging markets is growing, and the use of dollar carries a risk, Mark Carney said. At a meeting with the heads of central banks of other countries, he proposed replacing the American currency. Dollar in the current situation has a destabilizing effect on world economy... From ... USA in the American city of Jackson Hole. Carney stated that dominance dollar in the world financial system increased the risk of ultra-low interest liquidity trap ... The Central Bank has set the official euro exchange rate below 73 rubles. ... will amount to 72.83 rubles. At the same time, the Central Bank also lowered the rate dollar on August 23 - from 66.26 rubles. up to 65.61 .... The cost of the currency was 72.97 rubles. In turn, the course dollar amounted to 65.8 rubles. On August 15, the ruble rate continued to decline ... the euro exceeded 74 rubles. Moreover, on August 19 dollar cost more than 67 rubles. Director of the Analytical Department of Loko-Invest Kirill ... For the first time in a week, the euro fell below 73 rubles. ..., 97 rubles. At the opening of the exchange, the rate was 73.605 rubles. Dollar by the close was at around 65.8 rubles, the minimum ... euro of the Central Bank on Thursday, August 22, is 73.4 rubles, dollar- 66.2 rubles. The ruble is one of the most volatile currencies in the world ... Central Bank again raised the dollar and euro ... is set at 73.94 rubles. At the same time, the rate continues to grow dollar, which has grown from 65.99 to 66.6 rubles, follows from .... On Monday, August 19, during trading on the stock exchange, the rate dollar for the first time since February exceeded 67 rubles. For the first time since February, the dollar exchange rate exceeded 67 rubles. ... the crisis in Argentina provoked the flight of investors from emerging markets. Well dollar exceeded 67 rubles: at 14:15 Moscow time it traded at ... on Friday it closed at 73.74 rubles). Last time dollar cost more than 67 rubles. February 14, 2019. At first... For the first time since the beginning of May, the dollar rate exceeded 66 rubles. ... the decline in world oil prices. After 18:00 Moscow time course dollar for the first time since the beginning of May 2019, it rose above 66 rubles. At the maximum cost dollar reached the level of 66.085 rubles., which is 1.155 rubles ..., 78% higher than the closing level of previous trading. The last time is more expensive dollar on the Moscow Exchange it was worth on May 3, when its price rose ... The ruble sank against the dollar and euro amid falling oil prices Dollar has risen in price against the ruble by 70 kopecks, the euro - more than ... tariffs for China. The ruble exchange rate is losing ground in relation to dollar and the euro following a decline in quotations for Brent crude ... The ruble fell in price at the beginning of trading on the Moscow Exchange ... rose against the ruble on the Moscow Stock Exchange. At the maximum dollar reached almost 65.32 rubles, and the euro - more than 73 rubles. The day before at the close of trading dollar cost 64.93 rubles, and the euro - 72.54 rubles. Investing notes that, as of 11:17 am Moscow time, dollar grew by 0.6%. At the same time, the euro added 0.64 ... exceeded $ 60.25 per barrel. In this regard, the course dollar decreased to 65.08 rubles. by 74 kopecks, and euros ... The ruble won back the fall following oil prices ... $ 60 per barrel. The ruble won back more than the ruble from the euro, from dollar- more than 70 kopecks. The price of Brent crude oil exceeded $ 60 ... August. Against this background, the ruble strengthened against major currencies. Well dollar to the ruble on the Moscow Exchange by 17:30 Moscow time ... in terms of reserves, in the coming days, quotes may add a few more dollars... Well dollar will drop below RUB 65, says Bogdan, chief analyst at Promsvyazbank ... Argentine peso collapses after president's defeat in primaries ... by 19% relative to the opening of trades). By 17:40 Moscow time course dollar against the Argentine peso rose from the start of trading at 29.29 ... on Friday it closed at 45.25 pesos per dollar... Fernandez, who was nominated in tandem with ex-President Cristina Fernandez ... the United States and China, and its implications for the oil market. Dollar as of 17:40 Moscow time, it was trading at 65.62 ... The Central Bank reported on the currency cushion created by the banks for $ 19 billion By the middle of the year, banks formed reserves of almost $ 19 billion, the Central Bank said. They will be able to use them when the volatility in the financial markets increases. The buffer of foreign exchange liquidity of the banking sector as of July 1, 2019 reached $ 18.7 billion - this is comparable to the highs observed in previous years, draws the attention of the Central Bank in the “Review of financial risks ... The ruble has risen in price against the dollar and the euro Well dollar at the opening of trading on the Moscow Exchange decreased compared to ..., 09 rubles. Monday, August 5 at 19:30 Moscow time dollar weakened to 65.2 rubles. (on Friday bidding on it ... The euro exchange rate exceeded 73 rubles. ... the Fed rate cut. Euro exchange rate on Monday, as opposed to dollar, continued to strengthen against the ruble, reaching a maximum since mid-June. For ... major currencies is due to the fact that the euro is significantly more expensive than dollar, notes the chief analyst of Promsvyazbank Bogdan Zvarych. Euro on global platforms ... Chief Economist of Nordea Bank Tatiana Evdokimova. Euro strengthens as it falls dollar, notes the senior analyst at BCS Premier Sergei Suverov: the President of the United States ... Ruble strengthens after US clarifications on the scope of new sanctions ... the introduction of new US sanctions. As of 10:20 Moscow time dollar traded at 65.06 rubles, while at the close of ... the rate was 65.27 rubles. Although trading opened with strengthening dollar, already by 10:14 Moscow time the American currency even briefly fell below 65 rubles. (On Friday dollar broke this mark for the first time since June). Then dollar won back the fall, returning to the level above 65 ... The dollar and the euro rose by half a ruble in an hour after Trump's tweet ... in September, oil prices fell and the exchange rate rose. Well dollar on the Moscow Stock Exchange increased by 43 kopecks per hour, euro ... kopecks, follows from the trading data. At 20:00 at the minimum dollar traded for 63.82 rubles, euros - for 70.62 rubles ... 60 kopecks. (RUB 71.19), dollar- by 63 kopecks. (64.25 rubles). At the end of the day dollar increased growth to 77 kopecks, euros ... Sberbank has improved the forecast for the ruble exchange rate for 2020 ... the ruble against the US currency will be 69 rubles. per dollar, but now the bank has adjusted it to 65 rubles. Sberbank has improved ... the ruble for the next year from 69 to 65 rubles. per dollar... This is evidenced by data from the materials (.pdf) of the credit institution. According to... . The previous forecast was at the level of 65 and 66 rubles. per dollar respectively. The key role for changing the forecast then was played by a change in the external ... The share of the dollar in payments for exports from Russia to China fell below 50% for the first time. Why countries are switching to settlements in euros, and not in national currencies ... and the Central Bank. Russia still pays for Chinese imports in the main dollars(66.5%). China is Russia's largest trading partner among states, its ... information on whether they transferred part of their contracts from dollars In Euro. Gazprom, NOVATEK, Gazprom Neft, Rosneft, Surgutneftegaz and LUKOIL ... the observed decrease, in settlements with the main trading partners of Russia the share dollar is still very high, states the head of the monetary analysis ... Sberbank has improved its forecast for the ruble exchange rate. The softening of the rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve plays into the hands of the Russian currency .... The previous forecast was at the level of 65 and 66 rubles. per dollar respectively. The key role was played by the change in the external background, explains Lisovolik: more .... Such soft rhetoric has strengthened expectations of a Fed rate cut in July: dollar began to fall in price, currencies of emerging markets - to rise in price. On Thursday, the ruble lasted ... years, says the chief economist of the investment bank Alexander Isakov. By the end of the year dollar will be above RUB 65, says Denis Poryvai, an analyst at Raiffeisenbank: the inflow is ... The dollar at the opening of trading fell below 63 rubles. Well dollar against the ruble at the opening of trading on the Moscow Exchange amounted to 62.995 ..., 5 kopecks. compared to the closing level of previous trading. Price dollar at the close of the previous day of trading amounted to 63.18 rubles. Course ... rub. Earlier, on July 10, it was reported that the ruble began to rise to dollar and the euro after a speech by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome ... The dollar fell to the lowest since the beginning of the year ... the key rate. At trading on the Moscow Exchange on Thursday, the rate dollar at the moment dropped to 63.26 rubles. The closing price of the previous ... Fed statements began to transfer money from dollars and US Treasury bonds in shares, the channel noted. Decrease dollar- largely the result of the Fed's decision ... the Fed rate cut and the risks of its cut at the next meeting. " Dollar is rapidly losing ground against major world currencies, this automatically strengthens ... Naryshkin called the dollar "an anachronism with a toxic character" ... currencies. Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) of Russia Sergei Naryshkin called dollar anachronism of the modern world economy. He stated this in his ... the holder of the main reserve currency. Monopoly position dollar in international economic relations turns into an anachronism. Gradually dollar becomes toxic, ”Naryshkin said. By... In pursuit of privilege: is it possible to reduce Russia's dependence on the dollar ... prices First of all, it is useful to understand what the global role is based on dollar. Dollar important insofar as it is used in their transactions by private agents ... it turns out to be beneficial for countries to partially tie their exchange rate To dollar... Since the fluctuations in the course dollar can have negative impacts on product output ... for its trading partners to use the euro instead of dollar... If enough firms switch from dollar for the euro, then the eurozone will be able to acquire such ... Putin spoke of the need to rethink the dollar in the global economy ... the adoption of the Jamaican monetary system in the 1970s, which reaffirmed the priority dollar balance problems remain unresolved currency relations... Moreover, the president noted ... has changed. In connection with these "profound changes", it is necessary to rethink the role of dollar, which the United States is using today as an instrument of pressure on the whole world, Putin said. "Trust in dollar it just falls, ”the president concluded. During his speech at SPIEF, Putin ... Dollar rate peaks since early May .... This is evidenced by the data of the Moscow Exchange. So, by 11:20 Moscow time dollar rose to 65.58 rubles, which is 16 kopecks. above ... and American currency also rose in price. By 12:45 Moscow time the cost dollar grew by 42 kopecks. - up to 65.2 rubles. Euro rose ... dollars dollars($ 1.6 billion), CNN calculated. Bank of Australia prints about 400 million bills with a typo ...) confirmed that he has printed about 400 million bills of 50 Australian dollars with a typo. The representative of the regulator told the portal News.com about this ... the banknotes issued in circulation are about 2.3 billion Australian dollars($ 1.6 billion), CNN calculated.For 2018, as well as other currencies, it is built up for a maximum of 2-3 years ahead, since for such a period the main parameters are laid budget plans... Forecasts about whether the dollar will grow in 2018 should be built only on the basis of a set of indicators: budget balance, oil and hydrocarbon prices, inflation rate, and the existence of economic sanctions against Russia. Experts are sure not to expect plummeting ruble neither in the second half of 2017, nor during 2018.
The main groups of factors that determine currency indicators
There are two groups of factors that seriously affect the forecast of the dollar value:
- predictable factors are events that can be planned in advance with a specific result;
- unexpected - imply the sudden occurrence of social catastrophes and cataclysms, including unpredictable natural phenomena and anomalies, earthquakes, tsunamis.
The short-term economic forecast for the next 2-3 months allows us to conclude that the ruble will remain at its previous positions, or will rise slightly, no prerequisites have been identified for the ruble to suddenly fall. Usually, such forecasted data are confirmed by stock indicators by 90-95%. The general trend of the stable position of the ruble at the end of 2017 can only be disrupted by unforeseen political, social or natural disasters.
Regarding the dollar exchange rate in 2018 and the price per barrel of oil, we can say that at the moment the situation is reflected in the following figures: if the price of a barrel of oil is $ 50, 1 USD = 60 RUB, if the price will fall up to $ 40 per barrel, then the ruble exchange rate may fall to $ 80 per dollar. No large-scale reduction in the price of combustible materials by the end of 2017 and in 2018 is expected.
Government measures to maintain the ruble exchange rate
For the next 3 years, the main economic indicators in the budget of Russia, and the Ministry economic development provided President V. Putin with data on the gradual depreciation of the ruble to 64.4 by the end of 2019. This option is called conservative, without drastic changes. economic growth... Such indicators can be expected if the price of oil does not fall below $ 40 per barrel. Nevertheless, these figures cannot be recognized as final, because there are several conditions that can refute these calculations and affect the exchange rate fluctuations of the currency against the ruble.
Representatives of this position put forward the following rationale: the phased reduction budget expenditures over the next 3 years, for which the expenditure side should not exceed the indicators of 2016, when it was kept at the level of 15 trillion 780 billion rubles. What is required is not a one-time cost reduction, but a long-term systematic implementation of the planned actions until 2020.
This will leave budget indicators deficit at 3.3%.
Possible cancellation of sanctions and return credit opportunities for the Russian Federation will increase the growth of investment flows into the Russian economy and contribute to the strengthening of the ruble outlook. If the oil price drops to less than $ 40 per barrel, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov proposes to use such a project option, in which the budget for 2017 is set at 1 USD = 67.5 RUB, for 2018 - 68.7 RUB, and for 2019 - 71.1 RUB.
Expert opinion on the dollar exchange rate
Specialists of the Agency for Forecasting the Economy "APECON" assess the financial situation a little differently. They argue that the introduction of new sanctions is possible, which will significantly affect the dollar and stop the growth of the ruble. Therefore, at the beginning of 2018, 1 USD will grow and will cost almost 70 RUB, and if the oil price falls, it may exceed 80 RUB.
Former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin predicts negative growth dynamics of domestic money for 2017-2018. Long-term sanctions will put pressure on the Russian economy, so the ruble will “float” and will not be able to stabilize or start growing in the next 5 years. This will intensify the unfolded socio-economic crisis and entail a landslide decline in living standards. The crisis phenomena will last until 2020 and can be minimized by effective reforms in the public administration structure.
Institute staff economic policy them. Gaidar conducted their own research on what awaits the financial system in the near future. As a result, a quite optimistic forecast for the dollar exchange rate was presented starting from 2018. According to economists average cost 1 USD will be no more than 67-68 RUB.
This is due to both GDP growth indicators and an increase in oil prices to at least 60 rubles per barrel.
Representatives of Russian Academy national economy and All-Russian Academy Foreign Trade Ministry of Economic Development of Russia. They regularly issue analytical reviews. economic situation entitled “Monitoring the economic situation in Russia. Trends and Challenges of Social and Economic Development ".
In accordance with the operational data, they proposed such development models Russian economy:
- basic - at the same time, the cost of oil of the elite Urals brand should remain at the level of at least $ 40 per barrel, then in 2017 1 USD will cost 67 RUB, and in 2018 - 62 RUB;
- optimistic - if this model is implemented, then by 2018 the elite brand of oil will show growth and reach the cost of $ 60 per barrel, in which case the ruble will strengthen significantly, and in 2017 its indicators will fluctuate around 60 RUB, in 2018 - 57.2 RUB;
- pessimistic - oil quotes will fall even lower to $ 33-34 per barrel, and the ruble will fall to $ 82-84 per dollar.
Global Trends in the Financial Sector
Many foreign analysts are inclined to believe that Russia will return to its former positions among equal partners in the global financial system and gain access to the main instruments for regulating financial flows.
Pierre Terzian, an expert with the French magazine Petrostrategies, is confident that oil prices will stabilize by mid-2017 and remain at the same level until the end of 2018. In his opinion, the dollar will not rise above 70 rubles and after reaching this mark will start to fall in price again.
The gradual development of the Russian economy will begin even in the context of sanctions from international credit institutions, which will increase the value of the ruble by 5-10%.
The Fitch rating agency proposes to take into account inflation indicators at the level of 5.55-6% and other macroeconomic indicators, which are steadily improving. In this regard, it is assumed that the price of the dollar will slightly deviate from the indicator of 60 rubles, and no one foresees an unexpected collapse of the dollar or a sharp collapse of the ruble. All experts in the economic field do not forget to point out the possibility of unexpected panic outbreaks caused by the distrust of citizens in the actions of the government. The difficult foreign policy situation provokes the spread of cumulative tendencies, but there are no prerequisites for earning money on the sale of dollars next year.
In the context of multinational capital mergers, even overseas events directly affect the sales ratings in individual countries. Parliamentary and presidential elections in America, Europe and Russia, terrorist attacks in various regions, man-made and natural disasters quickly affect the state of the currency exchange. No political system evokes unconditional trust, therefore, a fractional way of storing money in various currencies and liquid securities is spreading.
In the last days of June, the dollar rate in Russia has undergone a slight correction after reaching a monthly minimum. The official exchange rate of the Central Bank on June 26 was 62.52 rubles, and this is a record for the last 10 months - the last time the ruble strengthened to such a line in August 2018. By the end of the week, the dollar rose slightly again - up to 63.08 rubles. The forecast for the dollar for the new week suggests that most experts expect a slight weakening of the Russian currency on the days from July 1 to July 5, 2019.
What will happen to the dollar in the first days of July
The correction of the last days of the outgoing month was quite expected. After finishing tax period the demand for Russian currency on the part of exporters decreased. This happens every month, exceptions are very rare.
Considering completion tax payments there are almost no internal factors to support the ruble. The market managed to win back a possible decrease in the key rate at the end of July, which was hinted at by the head of the Central Bank Nabiullina. As for the oil market, while it is awaiting news from OPEC + and is not ready to make a qualitative breakthrough. Commodity prices have stabilized around the $ 65 mark.
Of course, the main international event that all market participants have followed in recent days is the G20 summit.
The dynamics of the ruble in the first week of July will largely depend on how the results of the meetings of the leaders of the world's largest economies are perceived. First of all, everyone was watching the leaders of the United States and China. The economic war between the two countries has a global impact on world markets. All the currencies of developing countries, including the Russian ruble, depend on the relationship between these two countries.
Experts agree that the ruble now has no particular reason to strengthen further. But there are also no reasons for its sharp weakening. The dollar exchange rate in the new week may be volatile due to at least two reasons. The first one is Russian companies begin to pay dividends, and many of their recipients will go to the exchange to convert the income received into currency, which will play against the ruble. The second reason is the publication by the Central Bank of the volumes foreign exchange intervention on next month Wednesday, July 3rd. So far, no surprises from the regulator are expected. However, if the volume of currency purchases within budget rule turn out to be different from expectations, this may affect the current course.
Dollar exchange rate in the week from July 1 to July 5, 2019 - expert forecasts
The publication traditionally asked analysts of large Russian banks about their views on the fate of the ruble and the dollar in the new week. The consensus forecast of the interviewed experts is that the dollar exchange rate at the end of the week is 63.42 rubles... At the same time, the possible course corridor that analysts expect is from 62.5 to 64 rubles and more.
The forecast of the dollar rate for the week from July 1 to July 5, 2019 by day is also given by the Moscow agency APEKON. The expectations of the agency's experts are extremely close to the above forecast. They are shown in the table below.
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