A sharp drop of the ruble exchange rate. Why did the ruble collapsed
I was asked to recently comment on some kind of performance of Hazin and someone else on a similar topic. I then did not do it, but today's news made me reconsider this decision. Honestly, I do not even remember what was said there, but I remember the conclusion - the States are always for everyone and everywhere. And I do not exclude that it is - the Americans are beginning to compete with Jews and 16 year old boys. But this does not mean that the Jews and 16 year old boys determine the course of world history, and the omgestion is not synonymous with the word "influence". And as a rule, it ends badly for what is worthwhile.
And Khazin as a thinker is sick with the syndrome of the 2nd school plus the overall crisis of the scientific method. That is, I do not know if he is a secret cursor, but I discussed with him somehow the interpretation "Monday begins on Saturday" and I got the impression that he was one of the second-coskcars, among whom my youth was held. And I noticed that it is characterized by one disease - they are somewhat exaggerating the significance of a completely correct phrase that the true theory must be beautiful, bringing it to the absurdity, according to which the most beautiful theory is the most true. They were taught so as a child.
The sample of the second school syndrome is the film "Music Box", if it is not used to ensure the eye and hearing, and to study the work hours. According to this cartoon, the main part of the hourly mechanism is ratchet, and in fact, the work of the clock mechanism is based on the independence of the time intervals measured by the pendulum oscillations on the degree of springs spin. Of course, this conclusion can also be brought to the absurd and declare that if the ratchet is not turned into the other direction, then the spring will unfold at all and there will be no oscillations, but this is just that exception that confirms the rule.
By the way, it is very typical that the stylistically this cartoon repeats the "yellow submarine"
Will start with the fact that the highest pace economic Development The USSR has reached in the early 70s, when trade in oil was successful. And the USSR decline began with the fact that the Ministry of Oil Industry of the USSR was expressed in the monster, which reached the point that began to take funding from the Ministry of Middle Machinery. Up to the fact that the negative effect of income from the sale of oil was called the "Oil Curse of Russia" and even more so the USSR. In the West, a significantly less severe form of this curse was called " dutch disease".
By the way, I advise you to get acquainted with Otto's statements Wolf von Amerongen, taking into account that the toxicity of influence on the gas sales economy is an order of magnitude less toxicity of oil trade, due to the fact that gas prices are significantly more stable. Everything would be different if the oil was not traded in Dollars, and the United States would notice the war of sanctions all the time. And it turns out that Russia receives dollars for its oil. And then it does not have the opportunity to buy on these dollars what she needs. And she needs technology, including oil production, which all the time fall under US sanctions. That is, the vicious circle is obtained: Russia should extract oil to get dollars that the United States is simply printed, and even immediately humiliate, forcing the exhaust technologies for the extraction of this oil. In addition, the United States is abused by its position of the main client of Saudi Arabia, the feature of whose deposits is not only lower cost, but also their maneuverability, as the saudis can easily cut or increase oil production, and Russia is not.
And this is a pretext for holding Putin's policies to expand economic sanctions imposed on Russia, against those who impose them. You will not believe, but oil prices have collapsed Putin yesterday, refusing OPEC in the request to coordinately reduce oil production under the pretext of the technical impossibility of doing this, which caused the collapse of oil prices and, respectively, the ruble rate.
In fact, if they take gold value as an equivalent of money, and oil, it turns out that it is not a ruble falls, and the dollar is growing, and the US state-duty nominated in dollars is growing proportionally. And accordingly the maintenance of this debt is growing, which is much higher additional income From the sale of shale oil. By the way about shale oil: what do you think, who would occupy the relevant niche in the market, if Russia reduced production?
In addition, what you consider the price of oil is actually an insurance of this price, and the contract price for oil is completely different. That is, someone concluded a contract with Russia for the supply of thousands of tons of oil at a price of $ 100 per barrel and he buys insurance, which compensates for him losses if the price will be $ 70 per barrel when it will sell this oil. Well, or Sechin himself buys insurance if the oil price in the contract is floating. In addition, he also insures the ruble exchange rate if the transaction he leads is nominated in rubles, and this allows you to greatly reduce the cost of insurance of the first transaction, since the price of oil in rubles is much less volatile.
But it is not all. During the fall of the ruble exchange rate, the consistent number of rubles from the oil sold, despite the fall in oil prices, Putin Russia took advantage of response sanctions in order to strongly reduce its maintenance expenses by introducing a ban on imports. And the released means uses for procurement of gold, the price of which falls synchronously with the fall in oil prices. That is, Russia due to the fall of the ruble exchange rate compensates for the fall in oil prices, which allows it to finance the budget without any problems, including the increasing costs of the army and the military-industrial complex, and at the same time transferring its foreign currency reserves to gold and eliminating disproportionality in the economy, such as the price of Moscow the property. Of course, it may be necessary to reach the fact that Russian bandyuki will disappear on the UAZ, instead of traveling on Mercedes and Ranj-Rover, but Brother, who is easy now?!
But screaming about a threatening catastrophe say that this policy is very painful for those who in Russia made a bet on the overthrow of Putin and for the construction of reservations for the auto-earthen population on 1/6 of the sushi part with the subsequent full translation of it (this part of the sushi) In the zone of dollar trading, in full accordance with Clinton's 1992 plan, which actually provoked the rabies of the printed machine or if you want worldwide financial crisis. Naturally such volume material values Easily compensates for the overproduction of dollars, contrary to theories of Khazin, if I understood them correctly. Moreover, Obama's policy suggests that in the United States, let and with varying success, but the economic suffocation of clintonites, but I can not say about Russia, since the suffocating effect of all of the above measures is successfully blocked (and sometimes sabotized) by the government Medvedev, most of which make up former friends-comrades of Khazin. But this is a completely different story.
Russian financial analyst Stepan Demur warned about the impending collapse of the Russian economy, falling and prices for oil, and the ruble. Now the expert says that a revolutionary situation was ripe in Russia, the country's safety margin is exhausted and bloody events.
- How do you explain your prognostic talent - is it intuition, is it an experience?
No talent, no intuition. Just need to understand how markets and economics work. There is a toolkit for analyzing the market, these are waves of Elliot, they work fine, as I demonstrate from the mid-2000s, and Robert Preter uses them from the late 1970s and does very much money on it. Roughly speaking, this is the theory of the behavior of the crowd, the so-called sociordynamics.
The crowd is characterized by delusion or mania. Markets from the point of view of the crowd are absolutely illogical. The modern economy is based on the fact that all investors are rational objects, that is, all their actions are rational: based on the information they possess, they take rational solutions.
So, the crowd or economic agents behave irrationally, and therefore the entire modern economy is a funny science. About the irrational behavior of the crowd spoke a lot of Austrians von Misa and the background Hayek. They used it in their business theories - cycle. But since it is in modern economy Absolutely urgent things, they do not do anything, and they are under the taboo.
You predicted the collapse of the ruble, and now the most pessimistic forecasts are sounded: for example, on the air "Rain" channel, sachearing the lead program, the director of the company "Finam" Nikolai Solabuto chokolokrovno noticed that by March the dollar . Suppose his forecast?
200 While the goal is not worth it. The only thing I can say is: the ruble does not have for technical and fundamental reasons. Now the ruble went to his last way. Of course, there will be a correction essential 10, 7 rubles per dollar, but the direction of the global trend is only down. As for two hundred, I'm kidding something else that we can calmly see the situation when oil 150, and the ruble 150.
The reason is very simple that the oil service market, and this is the service of mining wells, geological exploration, drilling, in Russia takes about 80%. There were 4 major companies, now Halliburton bought Hughes, remained almost 3, they occupy 80% of the market, and they are under sanctions. And already hot discussion in the Russian government, what they will do with their production facilities - to sell them, close and the like.
It will simply begin a sharp reduction in production volumes and, accordingly, oil exports. Therefore, oil can cost 150, and currency revenues to the country's budget will be significantly less. Of course, the increase in oil will begin, and the offer in the oil market will begin to decline from Russia due to these reasons: accordingly, we can see the increase in oil and further fall of the ruble.
Now ocked in social networks Links to the predictions of analysts made 11 months ago, who spoke to the Russians, which do not need to buy a dollar for 35 rubles, because the ruble will certainly grow. What to do inhabitants who believed these forecasts then did not buy anything and still hesitate, do not know, change or wait when the ruble will grow?
The average man actually has the fateless, since more than 90% of market participants lose money. Therefore, that would do the man in the street, he won't lose money sooner or later. Even if you have now to say the inhabit that the ruble does not have a bottom, buy dollars and do not pay attention to the temporary strengthening of the ruble, he may, will go and buy dollars, but then when the ruble will strengthen on 5 - 7 rubles to the dollar, he has given This Council will go to pass his dollars for 7 rubles cheaper and, of course, after that the course will unfold, and again the ruble will begin to fall. Therefore, the advice of people here is useless, they will still make the opposite.
Putin in his handling threatened the currency speculators and, apparently, he expected to stop the fall of the ruble. Naturally, got the opposite effect right during his performance - the ruble immediately crawled down.
I wrote even at the beginning of the week in the blog, laughed: "Where? They either fell asleep at the helm, or she did not beat his head for a long time - she shakes the boat." Of course, the Central Bank came out, began to make any interventions to stabilize the course. Just at the time of the beginning of Putin's speech, if technical analysis Go to go, the ruble fell, the ruble correction began, the correction was practically exhausted, stood divergence on five-minute charts, and the ruble should have started a small regular slalom, which happened. And Putin's speech ... The events coincided, it happens.
Now almost seriously in the Duma are offered to conduct a denomination of the ruble only for the sake of the psychological effect so that the euro is not 60 rubles, and 6. It seems that this is a sign of full panic?
I call the Duma to the StateDir, because their initiatives would be funny if they were not so scary. It is impossible to seriously consider their statements or speeches by the president, because, in my opinion, they work mainly on the domestic market, on the inner consumer, on the so-called great Russian world and are balabolis. Well, they make, they still will not do anything, or will make it all the opposite.
Examples of this is a tremendous mass, to take at least a promise of non-sensible taxes on the small and medium-sized businesses that were the year and two ago. It is like to go to madhouse and seriously analyze the statements of the inhabitants. They do not mean anything. Yes, it looks ridiculous from the side, you can laugh at it, but if you think that these are the so-called folk aligns, the legislative branch, it becomes very sad.
As for the application of the former prime minister, and now the head of the Fradkov's foreign intelligence service, who said that the collapse of the ruble is the actions of the dark forces in the West, the United States, investment fundswhich specifically deal with speculation is also a madhouse statements?
No, here not only from the madhouse. Fradkov would like to face a little bit because large players, major speculators have not yet begun to leave the ruble. The main blow to the ruble on the part of the desigted speculators in 2008 - 2009 came from the funds that were invested in russian stocks: There was a powerful outflow, in my opinion, one and a half a billion left.
And now the bulk, and he only begins to ripen, from the funds invested in ruble bonds who took cheap money in the West in the currency under low interest rates, converted them to rubles, bought both state and corporate bonds ruble and, accordingly, on these "two percent", as they say new steep, and lived.
Now, according to my estimates and according to the estimates of the Central Bank, such investment money About 60 - 66 billion dollars is the first. Second: It is necessary to understand differences in psychology between funds and managers who invest in bonds and in stocks. For 10 or 15% drawdown fund managers - this is already death like, they begin nervous tick.
So, if we take the dynamics of ruble corporate blue chips and government bonds and put the loss on this dynamics, ruble risks, because they have a currency balance or a dollar, or the euro, then we will find that even with the accumulated income for the last two years , they now crossed the line at 15 - 20% drawdown.
That is, there will now begin massive output from ruble bonds, it only - just begins. The Central Bank of Money to maintain the ruble exchange rate, according to my estimates, somewhere from 30 to 60 billion dollars total, in other estimates it turns out from 40 to 100, that is, there are no currencies for maintaining the ruble. And this will really be a powerful blow from the so-called despicable speculators, and this blow has not yet started.
Is it possible to expect a blow and on the other hand - shut off SWIFT? You know chapter statements VTB KostinaThat said it will mean the announcement of war, and the Ambassador of the United States will have to leave the country on the same day. Premonition of such a sanction is quite serious. Will the West decide on this?
Hard to say. I will not invent anything here - I will leave the artists of the conversational genre, all political scientists. And I have such a bad habit of reading the columns of Brzezinsky and his speeches, since I lived in the States for 12 years, I know English well, even with Brzezinsky, I met on university corporate parties.
At the very beginning of what was happening, he wrote that Western leaders need to be given to understand Mr. Putin and his nearest surrounding that the price for their actions for them will personally be very high. Indeed, first appeared a list of the nearest circle of Putin, who fell under sanctions.
Firtash flew, immediately took him quickly, twisted, now, apparently, he began to testify, hoping for a deal with a consequence, with the FBI. But it did not affect them, no change in foreign policy and politics in relation to Ukraine did not follow. Brzezinsky then was a little disappointed, wrote that the only thing that still supports Putin in his course is a nationwide love.
So we will beat the people. And then there were already the most powerful sanctions that beat not in the circle of Putin, but in the economy as a whole. It is also cutting off all Western capital markets, it is working with the Chinese, which was very successful that they cannot be acceded to the sanctions, then at least they did not violate them.
This is a work with the Europeans, because that the sin is to hone, the Europeans are neither fish nor meat, only now they have risen. Americans, apparently, they are very clear and intelligible explained with which they deal with. But for this you need time. And only now there is some confidence that sanctions really work. They have not yet led to a change in Putin's course, slightly slowed down the escalation of the situation, but so far they have not changed anything. What will happen next step?
Well, you turn off Russia from systems SWIFT "It will be a very quick painful blow, at one time such a blow was applied to Iran. But not deadly. Because Western strategists (there are not practically there, in my opinion, with the exception of Brzezinsky) underestimate what is happening in Russia, they underestimate the level of manipulation by public opinion and consciousness, which is happening here.
This will all be explained by the people of the shivels of the Cursed West, who hates the great Russian world for his high spirituality, something there will be there on the first channel. Therefore, this, too, will probably not lead to a change in Putin's foreign policy. But the gradual strengthening of existing sanctions in the field of mining, intelligence of fossil, banking sector, sooner or later will lead to the desired results. Because the connection between the duraskop and the refrigerator is impossible to install.
Russian businessmen in rabies. The restaurant "Pushkin" is now talking about such as in some meeting of the "Solidarity" movement four years ago. Can the perturbation of businessmen, whom the Crimea ruined or ruins, lead to Bunut rich against officials, against Putin, or is it a completely unreal scenario?
Everyone is corrupt, tied, almost all have folders, and they are terribly cowardly. Yes, they can say something, but when it comes to business, they are not capable of anything. This is not the contingent who is able to do something, change the situation.
There is a curious version, the American financial analyst Vitaly Kaneselson expressed her in our air that the Ukrainian Aventure of the Kremlin was negotiable because Putin felt the coming economic catastrophe and the fall in oil prices and decided to distract attention thus. Does it sound too beautiful or maybe true?
It sounds too beautiful. Most experts, analysts and general politicians are now refused to admit to themselves in one simple fact. What is the management system in Russia, countries, as a holistic organism, where there is a management system, which is called the vertical of power or politburo - 2? I call anything like this, I call the DGA fools, fools, absurdity.
Fools give orders, their fools perform that we get at the exit - absurdity, full absurdity. No strategy for Putin was not there. All his tactics are very simple, comes down to the following: something to do, look at the reaction. If I got very painful, go in another direction. If it seems like it hurts, but not so much hit, well, we will put on in this direction. That's all. And some kind of conclusion there, which lasts more than a hundreds of way, is not his horse and not the horse of his environment, in my opinion.
Crimea was planned, maybe before, because in the Kremlin, they do not perceive Ukraine as a certain independent or viable country. For example, the banners of the so-called adoption or Lugandony were spotted on all sorts of gatherings on the Seliger and in 2011, and in 2012, so some part of this was preparing. But annexation or the occupation of the Crimea, I think it was a spontaneous decision Putin, because just an absolutely similar mode, just one in one similar, flew for some two months. What do we have to do?
When such an ass in the country, it means, you need to talk about patriotism that we are great that we get out of your knees and, of course, have bread and spectacles, you need to throw another sight to the people. So threw it. What happened to Putin's rating? He took off to heaven.
Therefore, this tactical move has worked, it was calculated. Although the consequences, I think absolutely not calculated. Georgia gave them away, they thought that the Crimea would come down with her hands. If Americans did not intervene here, if Putin did not climb into the east of Ukraine, I think that Europeans were former to be forgiven. They have suffered, they have been jealous, but the Crimea would have forgiven. But everything went too far.
We talked about what to do inhabitants who were afraid to change rubles, and what to do people, let's say, "thinking"? I see on my acquaintances: people who have not even even thought about emigration, now they don't talk about anything at all. I know that you advised in your public speeches to leave Russia?
Yes, I don't see the other way at the moment. I said that if by the end of 2014, the pogroms will not begin in Russia, then I'm leaving the country. They did not start, the people again said this prepared by the Kremlin propagandists dish. And I create such an impression that the country is close to passing the point of non-return, after which it will cease to be a country that has some kind of future.
You mentioned Iran, there is a similar situation: and the sanctions are the broadest, and SWIFT turned off, and nevertheless, the Iranian revolution chokes, the authorities did not change, now the sanctions are slowly shooting, some kind of "stability" is set for many years. Can everything end in Russia with the Iranian version? Or you can not compare?
No, why, you can. Only, you understand, Iranians had another ideological margin of safety, they are still Muslims. There is no strength in Russia in Russia. In Russia, now there is a single margin of strength from an ideological point of view - this is what a significant part of the population suddenly united against the general enemy. We always have for some reason unite against the enemy. Just to unite so much, do something useful for the country does not work. Here with the enemy - yes.
Moreover, the enemy was chosen very well: as always, he is somewhere far, he is big and terrible, his actions can be seen on his refrigerator, but he is far away, such an incomprehensible abstract enemy. And all, there are no other ideological squabbles, there is no ideology in the country completely. Therefore, the whole question is how long and deep will sanctions be.
Because in Iran, at the expense of the ideological stock, there was no collapse of the institutions of power and social institutions. In Iran, corruption is not the most terrible and large in the world. There is no control system in Russia, it comes down to DGA - fools, fools, absurdity. Corruption is ubiquitous, it just struck like cancer, the state, the state car is no longer capable of.
Income bundle is creepy. Therefore, in Russia, a revolutionary situation has been created in Russia in the last 10 years, when the bottoms do not want, the tops cannot. Moreover, there are no practically political freedoms in Russia, therefore, as correctly noticed the same Putin, the Maidan in Russia is impossible. I agree with him, Maidan, that is, the bloodless revolution is impossible here.
If you look at all these "color revolutions", they were successful in countries where there were relative political freedoms where there was not a funny Kremlin opposition. Somewhere they brought their results, somewhere not. It is impossible here. That is, if Maidan is impossible here, then Tahrir will be here.
It will happen sooner or later, because there is a revolutionary situation in the country, and it is only aggravated. In my opinion, the sanctions are not the root cause and deterioration economic situationAnd everything that happens. The economy actually began to pour in 2012, the ruble, if he did not fall in 2014, would have fallen in 2015.
Just every system has a strength limit and is the wear limit when it starts to break and collapse. In my opinion, these limits in Russia are already completed, and the sanctions only highlighted all the urgency of the state machine, state Structurewhich is in Russia. Therefore, the peaceful path here will not be, unfortunately.
reference
Stepan Demur began his career in the early 90s in the USA. He gained fame for the advance prediction of the American mortgage crisis. On the RBC TV, the Transmission of "Markets", "Dialogue", on the radio station Finam - FM - the program "Paradox".
2018 will become a turning point for the Russian currency. In the coming months, foreign capital flows that ruble are very substantial support in economic sanctions and run out. And next year their flight will begin. It was to such an opinion that economists came to the world's leading investment banks surveyed by the Bloomberg agency.
Ruble may lose investment attractiveness
According to the results of surveys, foreign funds that have invested about $ 15 billion in Russian OFZ, in 2018 will lose interest in ruble assets and will begin to close their investments, selling Russian currency and turning the Carry-Trade operations.
The main reasons for the fleet of capital from Russia are called low oil prices, expansion of economic sanctions and an increase interest rate Fed.
Recall that thanks to the rigid policy of the Bank of Russia, the ruble has become a favorite currency of speculators. Receiving loans in dollars and euros for an interest rate of approximately 1% per annum, banks and funds are bought, the yield of which is from 7.5% and higher. At the same time, a stable or even strengthened ruble makes it possible to withdraw them after a while back, having received a very high monetary profit on world standards.
However, as the Central Bank of the Russian Federation reduces the interest rate, and the Fed-Fed is on the contrary - it increases it, decreases, making investments in ruble assets less attractive.
At the end of the September meeting, the Fed clearly indicated that it would increase the cost of borrowing in dollars in December and predicted a triple tightening credit-money policy In 2018. In addition, Fedreve began to reduce the balance, reducing excessive dollar liquidity, which "stole" markets after the crisis in 2008. Along with this, the Bank of Russia reduced the size key bet Up to 8.5% per annum, which is a minimum for three years, and also stated that in the coming quarters, another decrease in the rate is possible.
Arithmetic ruble Carrie trad for teapots
Meanwhile, the pressure on assets and paper of countries with a developing economy begins to grow. The largest stock exchange fund investing in debts and currencies EM records a stable outflow of funds since July. During this time, customers demanded 1.2 billion dollars, forcing the Foundation to close the position.
It is very likely that the demand will continue to fall due to the gradual release of global players from EM papers and geopolitical negative in relation to Russia. This means that the ruble will soon lose attractiveness for Carrie Trade.
The real interest rate in Russia is one of the largest in the world. It is 5.3% per annum - it is so the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation exceeds the level of inflation. The percentage rate of the Fed is slightly lower than the speed of price increases, so in the US a real interest rate has a negative value.
At the moment, the difference in real interest rates of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the US Federal Reserve is 5.85 percentage points. If this difference decreases to 3.5 percentage points, investments in Russian assets will lose attractiveness.
In other words, the Carrie Speculants leave the ruble, the Bank of Russia even does not necessarily reduce its bid. It is enough that the Fed increases its interest rate five times, and inflation in Russia accelerated to 4.4%.
Currency risks for the ruble are saved
At the same time, the risks of investment in the ruble have not disappeared anywhere. Dollar income in Russia depends on the dynamics of oil prices by about 60%. This is enough for the assets of some countries of Central and Southeast Europe look more attractive. A smaller percentage difference within 1-2% is compensated for much less currency risks.
For the ruble, one of the key risk factors remains the likelihood of introducing new economic sanctions by the United States, which completely prohibit investing in the Russian debt market.
The US Department of Finance has already received a reference to March 2018 to prepare the appropriate regulatory base. Do you need to say that in case of entry into such sanctions into force, the most powerful capital outflow will be terminated and will begin?
Risks for the ruble are not limited to one sanctions. In addition to them, the fall in oil prices are the situation with North Korea, Ukraine, as well as future presidential elections in Russia.
conclusions
Some of our calculations may seem unnecessarily gloomy. In this case, we advise you to pay attention to the long-term prediction of the parameters prepared by the Ministry of Finance of Russia federal budget. It is based on a chronic depreciation of the ruble.
According to the forecast of the financial department, the fall of the ruble course will begin in 2018. The basic forecast involves a decline in the ruble exchange rate by an average of 10% every 5 years, but to overcome the mark of 70 and even 80 rubles a dollar rate can be much faster if the United States strengthens the sanction against Russia and distribute them to investments in the Russian State Dolg.
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December 17, 2014, 10:29
At night, the CBR raised the key interest rate from 10.5 to 17%, "Embeding another chaotic attempt to stop the global reset of the Russian currency." The central bank actions are no less important for the ruble rate than oil prices, write media, leading to the example of Rosneft loans. What will the authoritarian leader in such a situation? "The wounded Putin is dangerous," WSJ writes.
"It could not happen with a more pleasant guy: meaning the collapse of the ruble," - writes in the editorial article the Wall Street. Journal. On the night of Monday, on Tuesday, the CBD raised the key interest rate from 10.5 to 17%, "Embeding another chaotic attempt to stop the global reset of the Russian currency." "The collapse of the ruble puts Vladimir Putin in a financially difficult position, which should try to exacerbate western countries," - The article says.
The growth of the key rate on 650 basis items can suspend the further devaluation of the ruble, however "such a sharp increase in the rate will raise a negative effect on russian economy, tied to the energy, which is already swinging due to the collapse of oil prices. "
Regarding the probable reaction of Putin WSJ writes: Putin "And his propaganda machine - specialists in blaming America in their problems, and, undoubtedly, he will arrive again."
"The collapse of the ruble may not make Putin more conspiracting in Ukraine,"especially if he needs to distract the population's attention from the economy, the article says. The edition calls the West. "To withstand further manifestations of adventurism" Russian leader, in particular "to put a flying weapon to Ukraine for its self-defense." In conclusion, the newspaper warns: "The wounded Putin is dangerous."
"Course russian ruble Masters faster than you have time to say "Vladimir Vladimirovich". For him, it is not called differently as a catastrophe, but there is nothing good for you. "- Approve Jeffrey Smithin the article in Fortune, published by Time magazine.
"First of all, this will not make the concessions of Russia in Ukraine more likely: the stronger the economic pressure, the more the Kremlin propaganda will join the idea that the wines lie on the evil West, who denies the sacred law of Russia for the birth of the Crimea," - He writes Smith. "Ukraine will remain a fastening wound, infectious and European, and world economy."
"The financial crisis in Russia will have much more significant negative consequencesThan in Ukraine: Western banks will have to write off more loans, and Western companies are more investments, "- Explains Smith.
"If the ruble rate does not increase dramatically, then inflation in Russia will far exceed 10%, which already predicts the CBR",- writes the author, stressing that for Russians the costs of products make up more than 30% of income. And since more than 80% of deposits individuals Now exist in rubles, devaluation also means that the accumulation of people will "disappear".
This is a recipe for social instability, and much more significant than the toothless metropolitan shares of the Middle class protest in 2012, Smith believes. But what will make an authoritarian leader in such a situation? Will return or turn to repression?
"In any case, the consequences will be too sad for Russia, and for the whole world. The only alternative way out sees Putin as a result of a palace coup. This is also a Russian tradition tested, but everyone who keeps in memory 1991 and 1993 will recall, How bad it can end, "-encloses Smith.
"AND russian government, and wide markets grabbed the idea that the decline in oil prices explains the sharp drop in the ruble. However, the actions of the CBD and other financial institutions may play a more important role than oil. "- Writes Columnist Bloomberview Leonid Bershidsky.
The author mentions the recent release of "Rosneft" bonds by 625 billion rubles. Central Bank quickly turned on these bonds on the list valuable paperswhich he will be taken as a loan to banks. Bershid considers three possible scenarios.
First, banks who bought Rosneft bonds can use these bonds as providing currency loans from the Central Bank, and then provide Rosneft dollars to refinance loans of foreign banks in the amount of $ 6.88 billion.
Rosneft said that the author invests rubles, the author continues, but, since each subsidiary, as declared, will receive a robust, most likely "money is not intended for investment", withreads Bershid.
"Third, Rosneft can use rubles to buy dollars to pay debt on the market. It will greatly undermine exchange rate Rubble, "explains the author.
The Central Bank cannot do anything with the fact that funds, data on credit corporations within special transactions, as with Rosneft, destabilize currency and sow panic on the market. "It guaranteed method Strengthen distrust and send ruble to a speculative corkscrew - regardless of the dynamics of oil prices, "-makes the conclusion of a journalist.
If the Central Bank suddenly holds an extraordinary meeting, this indicates serious problems in the economy of any state; If this happens at midnight and ends with a significant increase in the key bet, it is safe to talk about panic, writes Die Welt, commenting on the increase in the Russian central bank of a key interest rate to 17%. The current raising raising has become the largest since the 1998 default.
At first russian currency Reacted with an increase in the dollar by 4%, but economists do not believe in a long-term effect. So, according to the analysts of Citigroup, the raising rate was not quite aggressive measure: "It will only give a ruble the opportunity to drop a couple of days." Moreover, the Russians themselves are confidently to the depreciation of the ruble, actively changing rubles for dollars, the article says.
Strategist jpmorgan. George Cristalso believes that the CBR "It is necessary to go to radical measures, namely, to conduct an intervention in the amount of $ 100 billion."All previous interventions of the CBR, who have made $ 80 billion this year, did not bring the desired result, resembles the publication.
According to experts, the Kremlin is already in a short time can take advantage of an even more radical support method national currency - Enter control over the movement of capital. "However, this is the most extreme tool, since it will destroy the last confidence in Russia on financial markets", - Says economist Neil Shiringfrom Capital Economics agency.
At the beginning of 2003, we went to Venezuela in early 2003 - as a result, underground trade in currency bloomed, and the country is still in a step from economic abyss, journalists comment. Financiers assess the likelihood of bankruptcy of Venezuela in 94%. According to the latest data, the likelihood of bankruptcy of Russia increased to 32%.
All its existence of the Russian Federation has always been looking for tricks for the formation of his interests and with the help of propaganda, which is valid in the Russian Federation since the time of the USSR, tried to show his "I". Conflicts in Syria, war in Ukraine and the applied of the sets of "arrogant cyber" is a typical Putin's face and Russia as a whole.
In the Russian Federation, the leading industry of its industry is mining and refining of oil and gas. It is not known where Russia would be now, do not be on its territory of so many reserves of oil and natural gas. Another would know this and did not "have shown", but not Russian.
The situation is currently developing in such a way that the minions of Putin's methods seriously intend to throw a challenge to Europe. They are already starting to do it. Rates on victory in presidential races in a number of countries, such as, for example, Moldova, Bulgaria, France and Turkey talk about unshakable intention to take the world situation under their control. But it was not there.
After the victory of Donald Trump in the presidential election in the United States, many Russians published such joyful screams, which is where. Not the news that it was the victory of a representative from Democrats in the United States to properly change and influence the relationship between the Russian Federation and the United States, which were very spoiled at the time when Barack Obama remained at the helm of America. But, as time has shown, Trump does not justify the hopes of all Russians and, just the other day, will tighten the sanctions introduced against Russia, which will be significantly hit by Russian bonds. The price of oil falls every day, financial traders return to the dollar and the euro, not believing in the level of the ruble stability. In favor of the dollar, there is still the fact that the sale of rubles can begin during the period of poor seasonality current operationsSince in the summer the influx of currency from exports almost all will go to import goods and services (tourism).
The situation with the current position of the ruble in the global market resembles a chicken - wings seems to be, but will never take off. Thanks to Putin and his "peaceful plans for the guidance of order in neighboring powers." Under the guise of peacekeepers and fighters, Russian mercenaries and soldiers continue to kill civilians in Ukraine and in Syria, in the aforementioned conflicts from the budget of the Russian Federation, a huge amount of money is allocated for the maintenance of terrorists. The current Russia will never be able to pull "on the full coil" and, sooner or later, blown away. It is unrealistic to be an enemy for everyone, but it was this way that chose for myself. Many experts and financiers predict the fall of the ruble soon, which will entail huge losses as in economic sphereand in all advanced industries and important components of the country's existence.