How long will the euro grow. Euro forecast
What are the prospects for the ruble against the dollar and the euro in the near future? Fresh currency forecasts for fall 2018: September, October, November. Expert opinions and the latest news.
Why is the dollar and euro growing in the fall?
Last week, the euro barely reached 70 rubles, stopping at 69.44, the euro easily jumped over the level of 80 rubles - 80.66. The next collapse of the ruble did not become any sensation. This is a natural market reaction to the approaching new wave of sanctions. Everything is clear with them. There is less clarity about how low the ruble will fall and what could slow it down.
Why did the ruble fall on September 6? On this day, a joint statement was issued by France, Germany, the United States and Canada, which divides the conclusions of the investigation carried out in the UK in the "Skripals case" and the charges brought against two citizens of the Russian Federation - Alexander Petrov and Ruslan Boshirov, who are considered in the West to be employees of the GRU ...
In fact, the events of September 6 mean that, firstly, the next package of American anti-Russian sanctions, which will be printed in less than three months, will be drawn up in the toughest edition.
Second, Washington is preparing a new sanctions law. Discussion of his project in the Senate Banking Committee showed: sanctions will be introduced against new issues of Russian government bonds, the list of persons subject to sanctions will be expanded, and measures are being prepared for the future aimed at limiting Russian oil production. Nothing unexpected, except for the discussion of restrictions on the use of dollar settlements for the largest Russian state banks. There was a proposal to first negotiate with the management of state banks. The reason is named in plain text: this way the bankers will get a chance to "influence Putin."
Third, the joint statement of September 6 shows that new sanctions against Russia can be adopted not only by the United States, but also by the EU.
Risks for the ruble are increasing
The market showed its reaction immediately. In parallel with the fall of the ruble, accelerating it, there is also an exit of non-residents from Russian government bonds. It got to the point that Deputy Finance Minister Vladimir Kolychev suggested that the Central Bank and the Finance Ministry, in the event of "extreme stress", could resort to buying out securities from the market.
"Extreme stress" is getting closer. So what will happen to the ruble next? It is clear that his destiny is to “roll further down,” as Sergei Yesenin wrote, however, about himself, and not about the ruble. Something could stop the ruble?
On September 6, they tried to do it with verbal interventions. Anton Siluanov, for example, acted as an "interventionist". He said: "We believe that such volatility should not last long, in the end, together with the Central Bank, we have the leverage to respond to this situation." It didn’t sound very convincing, especially since the only “leverage” named by the first deputy prime minister and minister of finance is already being used - it is “buying currency for reserves”.
The chairman of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina also made a statement. She reiterated that the Bank of Russia is committed to a “relatively tight” monetary policy in order to control internal and external inflationary risks. The news is that Nabiullina sees “less room for compromise” when making decisions in an environment of increased volatility and risks to financial stability. Neither the second person in the government, nor the first in the Central Bank on September 6, as expected, could not stop the fall of the ruble.
"Parachute" over the falling ruble may reveal oil prices. If US anti-Iranian sanctions lead to further increases this time
Another, this time a hand brake, is a sharp increase in the Central Bank rate, but this measure is fraught with a crisis in the economy, so if the rate turns up again, it will be very dosed.
Dollar, euro, ruble: expert forecasts
And what about exchange rate forecasts? In the market, the nearest targets are the dollar at 70 rubles, the euro at 82. And what about the prospects? In mid-August, Danske Bank predicted that the dollar could grow to 75.1 rubles in 12 months, at the end of August, BCS calculated that the average dollar exchange rate in 2019 would be 76.8 rubles, at the very beginning of September a tough forecast scenario from “ Renaissance Capital ”called the rate for 2019 - 81.5 rubles per dollar.
You can go into the technical details of each forecast, or you can pay attention to the fact that the further, the more pessimistic the forecasts.
It is entirely possible that in a couple of months, when the threats of new anti-Russian sanctions become even more obvious, if oil prices do not undertake a mountaineering excursion, the forecast for the dollar exchange rate may reach 100 rubles.
The long-term forecast for the euro exchange rate for 2019 is calculated based on a variety of fundamental and technical data. Fundamental data includes world news and events, the situation in Russian Federation and in the European Union, the foreign policy situation in the world and much more. Technical data include the presence of an upward or downtrend on currency pairs and other exchange information. All this makes it possible to predict the euro exchange rate.
Are there any prerequisites for the growth of the European currency?
This year, the following prerequisites for the growth of the euro currency against the ruble remain:
- sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union on Russia;
- rising prices for gasoline and diesel fuel;
- reduction in the supply of oil and gas for export;
- high inflation that has been observed in the Russian Federation over the past few years;
- unsatisfactory condition Russian economy;
- tense situation in Syria.
All of these factors make it possible to say with confidence that in the coming years there are all the prerequisites for the growth of the value of the euro. The greatest influence on the ruble exchange rate in the presented list is exerted by sanctions and the situation with oil exports.
The table shows the forecast of changes in Brent oil prices in 2019
Unlike the dollar, making accurate forecasts for the European currency is difficult. The dollar exchange rate for the coming day can be predicted with high accuracy just a few hours before the opening of the Moscow Currency Exchange. It is even more difficult to give a forecast for the euro in the long term, since in this case the value of the currency will depend not only on the situation in Russia, but also on the exchange rate of the European currency against the dollar. However, the forecasts of most specialists come true by 60-80%.
The forecast of the euro against the dollar depends on the state of affairs in the EU countries, especially on economic situation in the leading countries of the Eurozone. The political, social and cultural situation in this region is essential. The presence of any problems in just one of the European countries leads to a loss in the value of the euro against the dollar and the ruble.
Central Bank analysts' opinion on the euro exchange rate for 2019
According to analytical experts from the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank, the rate of the European currency in 2019 will be as unstable as in 2017-2018. At the beginning of 2019, the ruble's exchange rate against the euro may rise to 85-90 rubles per unit of the euro, provided that the foreign policy situation in the world does not change.
In the event that the situation in the country and in the world worsens, with the growth of tension in relations between Russia and other countries, the figure of 90 rubles per 1 euro is far from the limit.
At the end of 2017, the issue of Britain's withdrawal from the European Union arose in Europe. If Brexit does take place in 2019, the euro exchange rate against the dollar will fall dramatically. This will give a strong reason for the decline in the value of the euro and in rubles.
Also, a softening of the euro currency rate may occur in the event of an expected increase in oil prices to $ 80 per barrel by April 2019.
Forecasts of experts of the Ministry of Economic Development
Experts from the Ministry of Economic Development believe that sharp jumps in the euro exchange rate should not be expected until the end of 2019. The positive result of the elections in France has already had a strengthening effect on the euro, and the same should be expected from the elections in Germany. The situation in the Eurozone is calm, relations between the United States and Russia are beginning to improve. In these conditions, the ruble exchange rate against the European monetary units should stabilize and not present any negative surprises.
Traders and bankers are confidently talking about the stable growth of both the euro and the dollar in the coming months. Both currencies are still undervalued, European operations are in high surplus, Russian banks also expect an inflow of foreign capital - all these factors will continue to stimulate the appreciation of the euro.
Another scenario is also possible, in which in the second half of 2019 the rise in prices for the euro currency will stop and during the autumn there will be a correction in the form of a slight depreciation of the euro.
Forecasted euro rate according to Sberbank
According to the forecast of Sberbank analysts, presented in the table, in the 2nd quarter of 2019, the euro exchange rate in Russia will slightly decline. In the fourth quarter, the euro should strengthen its position and by the end of the year fall in price to 71 rubles per unit.
Month | Direction by the end of the month | Course at the beginning. months (from 1-15) | The course is on the line. months from 15 - 31 |
January | ▲ will rise | 81,29 | 84,15 +2,86 |
February | ▲ will rise | 84,15 | 87,75 +3,6 |
March | ▲ will rise | 87,75 | 89,9 +2,15 |
April | ▼ will decrease | 89,9 | 85,14 –4,76 |
May | ▼ will decrease | 85,14 | 81,72 –3,42 |
June | ▼ will decrease | 81,72 | 79,16 –2,57 |
July | ▼ will decrease | 79,16 | 78,24 –0,91 |
August | ▲ will rise | 78,24 | 78,95 +0,71 |
September | ▼ will decrease | 78,95 | 76,21 –2,74 |
October | ▼ will decrease | 76,21 | 75,14 –1,07 |
November | ▼ will decrease | 75,14 | 71,25 –3,89 |
December | ▼ will decrease | 71,25 | 68,86 –2,39 |
The first three months of 2019 is expected to further increase the value of the euro from 81 to 87 rubles, and over the next 9 months it will drop to 71-72 rubles per euro. This trend should continue until mid-2020. By May 2020, Sberbank predicts a decline in the value of the euro currency to 62 rubles per euro.
What do independent experts say about the value of the euro?
The opinion of independent experts differs from the opinion of economists in a direction unfavorable for the ruble. Many foreign experts predict a rise in prices for the euro currency up to the level of 100 rubles per euro. This is due to the following reasons:
- The Russian economy is in crisis due to the current sanctions and a decrease in the export of goods (primarily oil).
- In the near future, the sanctions will not be lifted, which means that it will not be possible to achieve the recovery of the Russian economy.
- One of the options for the development of events: by the end of 2018, the countries of the European Union and the United States will introduce new sanctions against Russia, which will negatively affect the economic state of the Russian Federation.
Not all independent experts hold similar views. Analysts at the Morgan & Stanley credit agency argue that the growth of the euro against the ruble will not exceed 80 rubles. for the euro.
Under one of the scenarios for the development of events, the euro against the ruble may fall to 70 rubles per euro by September.
Also, the ruble will be affected by the dynamics of the euro against the dollar. If the European currency does not rise in price against the American one, the ruble will have chances to grow in value.
In addition, on Russian currency may be influenced by the results of the speeches of the head of the European Central Bank and the EU finance ministers. If in their words there is confidence in the prospects for the European economy, the euro will rise in value again.
And the last factor that can affect the ruble is the macroeconomic indicators of Russia and the decision of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on the interest rate. Taking into account of today's course ruble and rising inflationary risks The Central Bank is likely to leave the interest rate unchanged, and it will not affect the dynamics of the euro exchange rate.
Macroeconomic indicators for the country will most likely come out in different directions. The Russian economy is unstable, and as soon as investors acknowledge the downturn in the Russian economy, the Russian currency could plummet in value.
The end of the summer turned out to be difficult for the Russian currency - in August, according to tradition, the ruble fell in price against the dollar and the euro. And what will happen to the national currency in the fall?
"US trade wars against the ruble"
Valery Bezuglov, analyst investment company Freedom Finance:“It is difficult to predict the ruble exchange rate because of the US sanctions. We can say with confidence that further escalation of relations will continue the outflow of funds from non-residents, which will put pressure on the ruble.
The degree of pressure will directly depend on the measures taken by the United States against the Russian Federation. In particular, the ban on the purchase of new debt can weaken the ruble by another 5-7% from the current values to 70-72 rubles per dollar.
In addition, the additional pressure on the ruble may come from increased trade duties between China and the United States. According to the latest information, as early as September 6, the United States may impose a 25% duty on Chinese imports worth $ 200 billion. This will put pressure on the yuan and, as a result, on all currencies. developing countries... Also, concerns are caused by the situation in Turkey, which is close to banking crisis, and the local Central Bank has shown an inability to pursue an independent monetary policy.
Taking into account the plans of the European Central Bank, which since October has reduced the monthly volume of purchases of assets by half - from 30 to 15 billion euros per month, the euro will be under pressure against the dollar, which means that the ruble will fall in price less against the euro than against the dollar.
It should be noted that any de-escalation of the conflict between the Russian Federation and the United States will contribute to the strengthening of the ruble to 65 rubles, since the current state of the Russian economy - with a positive trade balance, low external debt and a surplus budget against the background of high oil prices make the value of the national currency undervalued at current values.
It is also worth noting the actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, which suspended the purchase of currency by the Ministry of Finance during the days of panic selling, giving verbal signals to all market participants.
"On oil support"
Andrey Lyushin, financial analyst:“The risks of sanctions pressure will continue to have a strong impact on the Russian currency. But the primary concerns about sanctions have already been practically processed by the market, so the impact of the first package of restrictive measures, which will come into force in August, will not have such a strong impact, since it is already embedded in the market, the drawdown has already been made. The second wave, which may affect new OFZ issues and dollar transactions of state banks in the United States, is causing greater concern.
The ruble will fall in price against the dollar and the euro approximately the same, since the European Union joins the American sanctions. Autumn will be a difficult period for the domestic currency. So far, it is difficult to make any predictions, since there are many ambiguities and there is no certainty that sanctions will increase and affect OFZs.
The domestic currency is supported by the still high oil price. While "black gold" will hold above the level budget rule, that is, $ 40 per barrel, then the ruble will be at least a little, but protected from strong attacks. "
"The ruble depends on sanctions"
Sergey Zvenigorodsky, expert management company SOLID Management:“The same factors will continue to exert pressure on the ruble in the fall in an intensified manner, only with an intensified effect - the US sanctions have not yet played out their full potential, the American senators are about to come out of vacation, and it is possible that they will begin work on finalizing the sanctions measures. This may postpone the start of the new package, but further strengthen it against the Russian external debt and international ambitions of our country, which will add additional stress for the ruble.
In addition, the ruble will also affect the situation in other countries with which the Russian Federation has direct interaction, and if the situation with the Turkish lira does not stabilize, this will also lead to the retention of low positions of the domestic currency until mid-autumn.
General positions will decrease by November to 10% in relation to the existing indicators for today, so we will see the dollar at 72 and the euro at 83 rubles. Only after these peak values the ruble will again begin to rely on the real economy of Russia and oil prices, and the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation will provide the domestic currency with the opportunity to be assessed by the dynamics of supply / demand, and not by the balances from the buyout of export earnings. "
Turkey's Trouble Devaluates Emerging Currencies
Artem Deev, Lead Analyst at Amarkets:“The ruble remains under well-founded fundamental pressure from a number of factors.
A special place among them is occupied by the decline in oil prices, sanctions from the United States, as well as the Turkish issue. Considering that this time anti-Russian sanctions may lead to the freezing of foreign assets of systemically important national banks, as well as prohibit non-residents from investing in Russian bonds, the potential liquidity crisis in the country is reaching a completely new level.
The decline in oil prices also has a negative impact. Today, due to growing tensions between the US and China, market participants are increasingly focusing on the risk of a global economic downturn, which will inevitably affect the demand for raw materials. Against this background, and also taking into account the growth in oil production in Russia, the United States and the OPEC countries, the price of oil in the coming months may go below $ 60 per barrel.
As for Turkey, finding itself on the verge of a full-scale economic crisis, the region provokes even greater risk aversion for investors, which is reflected in the rapid pace of capital outflows from developing countries. Taking into account the above, by the end of this week the ruble exchange rate may sink to 70 against the dollar, and in the fall it is quite possible to wait around 75 ”.
"September can be a challenging month"
Dmitry Zharsky, director of the Veta expert group:“The end of August and the beginning of September are traditionally the most stressful period for the Russian economy and the ruble, and this year will certainly not be an exception. Despite the fact that the beginning of the last summer month was marked by a significant weakening of the national currency on the wave of speculation caused by the formation of new sanctions risks, we are still far from the final resolution of the tension on the market.
Let me remind you that a number of bills, including those concerning the introduction of restrictions on transactions with new OFZ issues, were introduced by American lawmakers at the end of the working session, after which the congressmen and senators went on vacation. However, in the third decade they will return to work, which means that in the coming days we will find out what the sanctions will be against Russia, whether they will affect the debt market and whether they will hit the largest oil and gas projects, primarily Nord Stream 2 ".
The reaction of the market will undoubtedly depend on what the sanctions will be. I would like to note that the current values in the euro-ruble and dollar-ruble pairs have already included sanctions risks and, if the new package of sanctions does not bring anything significantly new, such as restrictions on transactions with new OFZs, but will only expand the lists of physical and legal entities, then, most likely, the tension on the market will begin to subside by the third decade of September. And the ruble, only on a wave of speculative transactions and closing short positions, will be able to go beyond 68.5 to the dollar, after which a positive correction should occur and a return to the “new norm” in the range of 66.2-67.5, then, closer to October , a further decline to 64 rubles per dollar cannot be ruled out. It should be noted that now the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank have significantly reduced activity by foreign exchange market after the peak values of the volume of interventions in May-July, which generally gives the ruble strength, despite the gathering clouds of sanctions over it.
There is no support from oil yet. A moderately cheap barrel is in no hurry to rise in price even in connection with anti-Iranian sanctions, which may well hit European companies such as Total and Wintershall. Moreover, the United States will soon release 11 million barrels of strategic reserves onto the market, which is, of course, not much on a market scale, but the gesture itself may push the oil a little. "
Financial experts believe that by the end of 2018, the euro will fall against the dollar to $ 1.12. From January 2019, the euro rate will begin to grow slowly, many analysts share this opinion. On financial market up to this point, the ruble was considered, but now experts are more inclined towards the euro.
An increase in the rate of the euro or the dollar to the level of 100 rubles is unlikely. The predisposing factors for the instability of the foreign exchange market are economic relations between the EU, the US and Russia.
The Eurozone is currently experiencing low inflation and the economic growth... Now the question of the possible introduction of non-standard measures by the ECB is being resolved, which will help to combat the deflationary threat.
Based on data from Forbes, at the end of August 2018, the euro weakened its position against the dollar by 9-10%. US trade policy indicators make experts skeptical. Many countries are involved in negotiations on the use of national currencies and bypassing the dollar.
In practice, it is clear that such proposals cannot be implemented. The dollar occupies a strong position against the euro and the ruble, which will begin to strengthen its positions after the stabilization of the Russian economy.
The euro is not "suffering" as much from the hostilities in the Middle East as the dollar and the ruble. Any action in the economic market entails a number of consequences that are not beneficial for countries.
Donald Trump, after restricting the import of cars from Europe, received a boycott of American agricultural products in the European market in retaliation.
Due to sanctions and various restrictions, internal tension in the European market is increasing.
Expert opinion on the euro exchange rate in 2018
At the moment, it is difficult to say in which currency is the best way to store money, analysts say. Now the majority of Russians earn money in rubles. Experts advise spending them and not converting them into any foreign currency.
Due to economic weakness in many regions, the euro is expected to remain under pressure in early 2019. Dynamic growth of the European currency is unlikely. At the moment, the euro is considered a common replacement for the dollar, without the euro currency, the world equilibrium in the foreign exchange market will be difficult to maintain.
The fate of the euro will depend on the actions of the ECB. If he changes the softening program, then the stimulation of the European economy will be observed. By the end of 2018, the euro will cost RUB 79.69 or $ 1.148.
It is unlikely that the euro will strengthen its position against the dollar in 2018. From January 2019, the European currency may rise, but not significantly.
In times of crisis, counterfeit banknotes often appear on the market. A distinctive feature of the euro is the 11-digit serial number, to which one more letter is added.
When replacing a letter with its ordinal number in the Latin alphabet and adding the resulting numbers with the rest, the number 8 should come out. Only in this case the bill is genuine.
There is one more way to check. The numbers and letter will correspond to the country where the bill was printed. If the result is X2, then the bill comes from Germany.
Euro(English Euro) - official currency 19 countries of the "eurozone" (Austria, Belgium, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Finland, France, Estonia). The euro is also the national currency of another 9 countries, 7 of which are located in Europe. However, unlike the members of the eurozone, these countries cannot influence the monetary policy of the European central bank and send representatives to its governing bodies. Thus, the euro is the common currency for over 340 million Europeans. As of November 2013 in cash circulation was 951 billion euros, which made this currency the owner of the highest total value of cash circulating in the world, ahead of the US dollar.
1 euro is equal to 100 cents (or eurocents). Banknote denominations in circulation: 500, 200, 100, 50, 20, 10 and 5 euros. Coins: 2 and 1 euro, 50, 20, 10, 5, 2 and 1 cent. The name of the monetary unit comes from the word "Europe".
The Euro currency is printed by central banks that are part of the European System of Central Banks. All issued banknotes have one standard design. The front side depicts windows, gates, bridges - as symbols of openness and interconnection. They are made in the form of typical samples of the main styles of European architecture: classical, Romanesque, Gothic, Renaissance, Baroque and Rococo, "metal and glass", Art Nouveau. At the same time, euro banknotes differ in color palette: 500 - purple, 200 - yellow, 100 - green, 50 - orange, 20 - blue, 10 red, and 5 - gray.
Unlike banknotes, coins have only a common front side, on which the denomination is placed against the background of a symbolic map of Europe. The downside is considered "national" - each issuing central bank has its own for each denomination.
Despite the fact that non-cash euros were officially introduced on January 1, 1999, and cash was issued on January 1, 2002, the history of the single European currency is older. Before the euro appeared, from 1979 to 1998 the European currency system used the ECU (European Currency Unit), which was a conditional basket of national monetary units a number of countries. The ECU was subsequently exchanged for the euro at a one-to-one rate.
Officially, trading in the euro on the international currency market began on January 4, 1999. In order to save investors from currency risks, quotes national currencies were recorded. Thus, the exchange rate for the German mark was 1.95583 per euro, the French franc - 6.55957, and the Italian lira - 1 936.21. At the same time, the initial rate of the euro against the dollar was determined at about $ 1.17.
Throughout 1999, the euro quotes have steadily declined, eventually reaching the so-called parity - the equality of 1 euro and 1 dollar. At the end of September 2000, the European central bank, The US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and a number of European banks have jointly intervened in support of the single euro currency. Nevertheless, this did not prevent her from reaching absolute historical minimum, which amounted to 0.8230 dollars per euro in October 2000.
It was recognized that a further decrease in the quotations of the single currency could harm the European economy. At the same time, the US Federal Reserve by the end of 2000, in order to cope with the coming recession, embarked on a course of easing monetary policy, having cut, in particular, discount rate up to 2%. As interest rates in Europe were higher, the euro became more attractive for investments than the dollar. In addition, in 2001, the American economy experienced the shock of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. By the end of the year, the euro was trading at 0.96 per dollar, and by July 2002, it returned to parity value. Finally more expensive than a dollar he became after December 6 of the same year. And in 2003, prices began to grow steadily against the background of the US entry into the war in Iraq.
The rate reached its initial value of 1.1736, recorded on the first trading day, on May 23, 2003, and the absolute maximum - 1.5990 - in 2008. This became possible due to the world financial crisis which this time originated in financial system U.S.A. Economists believe that the strengthening of the euro was mainly due to the weakness American economy, not with European strength. This assumption is supported by the fact that the exacerbation of problems in the eurozone further led to a halt in the growth of currency quotes. For the summer of 2011, the euro exchange rate fluctuates between $ 1.41-1.45.
Nevertheless, during its existence, the euro has confidently taken the second place in the world in terms of government reserves. This is due to the fact that the total gross domestic product countries belonging to the eurozone surpasses even the GDP of the United States, which ranks first in the world.
The euro / dollar currency pair is the most traded on Forex market and financial derivatives - futures. Today Europe is a real alternative to the United States in terms of investment opportunities. At the same time, the choice of investors is influenced primarily by a comparison of the macroeconomic indicators of the two regions, such as the inflation rate, the prevailing interest rates, GDP, trade balance, etc.
At the same time, the biggest problem in the euro area is the difference in the level of the economies of the participating countries. The strongest are Germany, Italy, France. Those experiencing difficulties are Greece, Ireland and a number of others.
For Russian investors the euro is traditionally interesting as an alternative to the US dollar. The European currency is used to diversify the risks associated with exchange rates, and as an independent direction of investments - in times of growth in quotations.
In addition, it should be borne in mind that settlement in countries - members of the euro area by debit or credit cards it is more profitable to produce in this currency in order to avoid unnecessary conversion.