A characteristic characteristic of medium-term cycles. The economic cycle: causes, phases and types
Stolypin agrarian reforms. They were terminated by the Provisional Government on June 28, 1917.
After the October Revolution, a major reform was a new economic policy(NEP). This wave of reforms was in fact a repetition of S. Yu. Witte's reforms. In particular, during this period, at the suggestion of G. Ya. Sokolnikov at the end of 1922, the so-called gold ducats were introduced. New monetary system successfully operated until the end of the 1920s.
The NEP was characterized by the use of economic methods guidance using value forms (trade, credit, prices, etc.). It should be noted that the first five-year plan was based on the principles of the NEP. In this regard, the period of economic development from the second half of the 1920s to the early 1940s. should be assessed as a continuation of the implementation of the reforms of S. Yu. Witte, the main idea of which was the industrialization of the country. The creation of our own industry, wrote S. Yu. Witte, is that fundamental, not only economic, but also a political task, which is the cornerstone of our protectionist system. It is known that the first five-year plans were aimed at creating their own industry. Thus, the implementation of the first five-year plan made it possible to double industrial potential, within which the most modern heavy industry for those years came out on top.
From the point of view of reforms, the GOELRO plan played a special role, which was fundamentally new form ensuring balanced development of the country's economy. In general, we can say that of the entire complex of industrialization tasks that faced Russia at the beginning of the 20th century, by the beginning of the 1940s. the most important problem of that time was solved: "by extraordinary measures associated with unprecedented human losses, heavy industry was created, designed and capable of providing the country's defense potential at the level of general achievements of science and technology" (History economic doctrines: Textbook / Ed. A.G. Khudokormova. - M .: Publishing house of Moscow State University, 1994. - Part 2. - P. 323).
Fourth wave of reforms... Since the 1940s. world economy entered the fourth big cycle. During the upward wave of the cycle, economic reforms conducted by NS Khrushchev, and then by AN Kosygin, accompanied by the expansion of market methods of management. In particular, wholesale trade in the means of production was introduced in the USSR; enterprises were allowed to establish direct economic ties with suppliers and consumers; conclude business transactions; to file claims and be responsible for their obligations.
Although the economic reforms themselves were not fully implemented, the economic development of the USSR intensified. Production growth rates have increased; there have been certain structural changes; completed the design of a complex of new, defining the pace of scientific and technological progress, progressive industries. The economy in these areas was not inferior to the world level and often occupied priority position... In assessing the potential of our economy, past achievements must be taken into account.
Fifth wave of reforms falls in the mid-1980s. By this time, a crisis situation had ripened in the economy of our country, which could not be overcome by the old administrative and economic methods. As a result, economic transformations began, coinciding in time with the emergence of the upward phase of the fifth big cycle of the global economic environment.
The peculiarity of the fifth wave of reforms was that it was not consistent, sporadic, but at times opportunistic. In most cases, reforms began without any serious business case... Some of them were interrupted and not completed, others were accelerated for political reasons under pressure international organizations, excluding economic conditions... All this led to a rapid protracted decline in production, which by the beginning of 1997 exceeded 50% (in contrast to all previous transformations, when the implementation of reforms became a signal for economic recovery).
Economic science, based on the analysis of economic practice, distinguishes several types economic cycles... Austrian economistSchumpeterproposed the classification of economic cycles depending on their duration. The economic cycles have been named after scientists who have devoted special research to this problem.
So, business cycles are usually classified according to the degree of their duration. Based on this criterion distinguish short-term, medium-term and long-term cycles.
TO short-term (small) cycles include cyclical phenomena lasting 3-3.5 years. These cycles are called Kitchin cycles ... Small cycles arise in connection with the formation of an imbalance between supply and demand for the market consumer goods. The elimination of such imbalances requires about 3 years, and thus the duration of this economic cycle is laid.
TO medium term cycles include the so-called industrial(or classic) loops ( Zhuglyar's cycles ) and construction cycles ( blacksmith cycles ).
Duration medium-term industrial cycles is 8-12 years old. The industrial cycle is associated with the renewal of fixed assets and, accordingly, with investments. Renewal of fixed assets and investments give impetus to the development of this cycle. It is believed that the industrial cycle is associated with an imbalance of supply and demand, but not in the market for consumer goods, but in the market for means of production. The elimination of this imbalance requires the creation and implementation of new technology, which usually occurs at intervals of 8-12 years.
Medium term construction cycles have nDuration 15–20 years, during which the renovation of residential buildings and industrial facilities takes place. Theyassociated with housing construction and the market situation for certain types of structures, in particular with fluctuations in supply and demand in the housing market and in the market for structures. Pessimistic and optimistic moods of people are of no small importance here.
TO long-term cycles include Kondratieff cycles , it comes about the so-called long waves of Kondratyev(45-50 years old). It is believed that approximately once every 45-50 years, all the cycles discussed above coincide in their crisis phase, overlapping each other. Scientists-economists associate the existence of long waves with many factors - with major scientific and technical discoveries, demographic processes and processes in agricultural production, with the accumulation of capital to create new infrastructure in the economy.
In addition to the criterion of duration, there are many principles that make it possible to classify economic cycles: by scope (industrial and agricultural); by the specifics of manifestation (oil, food, energy, raw materials, environmental, currency, etc.); by forms of deployment (structural, sectoral); on a spatial basis (national, international).
If the normal course of the process of social reproduction is interrupted by a crisis, this means a difficult transitional state of the economic system, indicating the beginning of the next business cycle. A similar pattern is inherent in the development market economy... It should be remembered that any crisis causes imbalance in economic systems.
In this regard, economic crises can be classified based onthe extent of the imbalance, by the regularity of imbalance and by the nature of the violation of the proportions of reproduction.
By the scale of imbalance the economy is characterized by crises general covering all national economy, and partial arising in any particular sphere or branch of the national economy.
By the regularity of imbalance crises happen periodic, i.e., repeating regularly after a certain period of time, intermediate(these crises usually do not become the beginning of the next economic cycle and are interrupted at some stage of their development) and irregular arising for specific reasons.
By the nature of the violation of the proportions of the structure of social reproduction allocate overproduction crises(imbalance between supply and demand in the market when the amount of supply exceeds the amount of demand) and underproduction crisis(this is also an imbalance between supply and demand, but of the opposite nature - here the amount of demand will exceed the amount of supply).
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1. Cyclicity economic development... The economic cycle, its phases and types.
The cyclical nature of the economy is changes in the economy that are periodically repeated over a number of years (ups and downs in the economy).
The time between two identical states in an economy constitutes an economic cycle.
The first the most important phase economic cycle - a crisis(recession, squeeze, recession). Its characteristic features:
The excess of supply over demand, leading to the accumulation of inventories and falling prices
Sales crisis and falling prices lead to a reduction in production ;
A large number of bankruptcies and crashes;
Mass unemployment;
The fall wages and living standards;
An increase in the need for money to pay off obligations (universal pursuit of money), which leads to an increase in loan interest.
Second phase cycle depression - the economy reaches its "bottom", the lowest point of decline in production. The decline in production and the fall in prices stop, stocks stabilize, the interest on loans decreases (business activity is very low – there is no demand for money), unemployment remains high. Stabilization of prices creates an opportunity to expand sales and there are prospects for overcoming the crisis.
Third phase - revitalization characterized by an increase in production leading to the restoration of the pre-crisis level. Prices are starting to rise, and there is an increase in business activity. The demand for industrial equipment is growing, new capital is being drawn into circulation. The demand for money increases, which leads to an increase in the interest on loans.
The fourth phase of the cycle - rise(expansion, boom) - the volume of production exceeds the pre-crisis level. Prices rise, with the general rise in wages, unemployment reaches a minimum. Outside the peak, the growth of business activity stops, there is a problem of sales, production is reduced, the economy enters a phase of crisis, etc.
The cycle itself creates the conditions and prerequisites necessary for the transition from one phase to another.
V modern conditions(mixed economy) the regularity of fluctuations, the sequence of the phases of the cycle has been disrupted, some characteristics of the phases of the cycle have also changed, a drop in production is often accompanied by inflation (stagflation).
There are many explanations reasons cyclicality:
External reasons: wars, revolutions and political upheavals, population growth rates. Sun spots (weather-harvest), waves of scientific and technological progress, giving the economic system an impetus for movement, etc. It is believed that these external factors affect the change in investment, which in turn affects the volume of production, employment and prices.
To the inner ones, located within the economic system include:
Fluctuations in consumer and investment demand;
Violations in the field of monetary circulation;
Failures in the functioning of the market mechanism as a result of government intervention in economic processes;
Changes in the country's position in the world market;
Aging of the production apparatus and a slowdown in the pace of scientific and technological progress, etc.
With all the variety of explanations for the reasons, the key reason for cyclicality is fluctuations in investment demand for capital, that is, innovative changes in production (new technologies, the emergence of new equipment), requiring renewal of fixed capital. Distinguish: long-term (40-60 years), medium-term (8-10 years) and short-term (2-3 years) cycles. Long-term cycles (“long waves” by N. Kondratyev) are caused by profound structural changes in the economy, which are taking place under the influence of new, revolutionary technical innovations. Medium-term cycles are based on the obsolescence of equipment, which causes wave-like fluctuations in demand for elements of fixed capital. They are called the cycles of Juglar, who in 1862 published a work on crises in France, where he first raised the question that crises should be considered as a natural phenomenon. Kuznets' cycles are associated with the frequency of renewal of fixed capital and, above all, in construction, and they are called construction cycles. Duration within 20. Medium-term cycles are strung on large waves and the nature of their flow depends on which phase of the long wave they fall on. Thus, long-term cycles are associated with the emergence and transition to new technological methods of production. This transition takes a long time and gives impetus to a new wave.
Anti-cyclical policy of the state - measures aimed at preventing sharp fluctuations in the development of production (Table 2.2.1).
Table 2.2.1 - Key Countercyclical Policy Actions
Policy Type Rise Crisis
Monetary Reduction in monetary
mass of mass
Fiscal Tax Increase and Tax Cuts and
cost reduction cost increase
budget budget
Policy Lower wages Increase wages
wages wages
Investment Reduction Increase
public policy
investment investment
(typical period is 6-13 years);
Phases
There are four relatively distinct phases in business cycles: peak, decline, bottom (or “trough”), and rally; but to the greatest extent these phases are characteristic of Juglar's cycles.
Business cycles in economics
Rise
Rise occurs after reaching the lowest point of the cycle (bottom). It is characterized by a gradual growth in employment and production. Many economists believe that this stage is characterized by low inflation rates. Innovation is being introduced in the economy with a short payback period. Demand pent-up during the previous downturn is being realized.
Peak
Peak, or the top of the business cycle, is the “high point” of economic recovery. In this phase, unemployment usually reaches low level or it disappears altogether, production capacities operate at maximum or close to it load, that is, practically all the material and labor resources available in the country are involved in production. Usually, though not always, inflation rises during peaks. The gradual saturation of markets increases competition, which lowers the rate of return and increases the average payback period. The need for long-term lending is increasing with a gradual decrease in the ability to repay loans.
Recession
The concentration (monopolization) of capital leads to "wrong" decisions on the scale of the country's economy or even the world. Any investor seeks to receive income from their capital. The investor's expectation of the size of this income comes from the boom-peak stage, when the income is maximum. At the stage of recession, an investor considers it unprofitable for himself to invest in projects with a yield lower than yesterday's.
Without such investments (investments), production activity is reduced, as a result of the solvency of workers in this area, who are consumers of goods and services in other areas. Thus, the crisis of one or several industries affects the entire economy as a whole.
Another problem of capital concentration is withdrawal money supply(money) from the sphere of consumption and production of consumer goods (also the sphere of production of the means of production of these goods). The money received in the form of dividends (or profits) is accumulated in the accounts of investors. There is a shortage of money to maintain the required level of production, and as a consequence, a decrease in the volume of this production. The unemployment rate is growing, the population is saving on consumption, and demand is falling.
Of the economic sectors, the service sector and non-durable goods industries are somewhat less affected by the devastating effects of the economic downturn. The recession even contributes to the revitalization of some activities, in particular, increases the demand for the services of pawnshops and lawyers specializing in bankruptcy. Firms that produce capital goods and consumer durables are most sensitive to cyclical fluctuations.
These firms are not only the hardest hitting the downturn, but they are the ones who benefit the most from the recovery. There are two main reasons: the possibility of postponing purchases and market monopolization. The purchase of capital equipment can often be postponed for the future; in difficult times for the economy, manufacturers tend to refrain from purchasing new machinery and equipment and constructing new buildings. During prolonged recessions, firms often choose to repair or modernize outdated equipment rather than spending large sums on new equipment. As a result, investment in manufacturing goods is sharply reduced during economic downturns. The same applies to consumer durables. Unlike food and clothing, buying a luxury car or expensive home appliances can be put off until better times. During economic downturns, people are more likely to fix rather than change durable goods. While sales of food and apparel tend to decline as well, the decline is usually less than the decline in demand for durable goods.
Monopoly power in most industries producing means of production and consumer durables is due to the fact that the markets for these goods, as a rule, are dominated by few large firms... Their monopoly position allows them to keep prices at the same level during economic downturns, reducing production in response to falling demand. Consequently, falling demand affects production and employment much more than prices. A different situation is typical for industries producing short-term consumer goods. These industries usually respond to falling demand with a general decline in prices, since none of the firms has significant monopoly power.
History and long cycles
Business cycles are not truly “cyclical” in the sense that the length of a period, say, from one peak to another has fluctuated significantly throughout history. Although economic cycles in the United States lasted about five years on average, cycles are known to last from one to twelve years. Most pronounced peaks (measured as a percentage increase above the trend economic growth) coincided with the great wars of the 20th century, and the deepest economic recession, excluding the Great Depression, was observed after the end of the First World War. It should be noted that along with the described economic cycle, the so-called. long cycles. Indeed, at the end of the 20th century. american economy appears to have entered a prolonged recession, as evidenced by some economic indicators, in particular the level of real wages and the volume net investment... However, even with a long-term downward trend in growth, the US economy continues to grow; Although in the early 1980s, the country recorded a negative GDP growth, in all subsequent years, except for 1991, it remained positive. Symptomatic of the long-term recession that began in the 1960s is the fact that, although growth rates have rarely been negative, the level of economic activity in the United States has hardly exceeded the growth trend since 1979.
Notes (edit)
see also
- Noorhythms
Literature
- Kondrat'ev N. Big cycles of conjuncture and the theory of foresight. Selected Works / M. : Economics, 2002
- ASKAR AKAYEV: The modern financial and economic crisis in the light of the theory of Kondratieff cycles
Links
- Economic cycles // Online Encyclopedia "Krugosvet"
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See what "Economic Cycles" is in other dictionaries:
A term referring to the regular fluctuations in the level of business activity from an economic boom to an economic recession. There are four distinct phases in the business cycle: peak, decline, bottom or trough, and rally. Peak, or summit ... ... Collier's Encyclopedia
Business Cycles and National Income (1951) American economist E. Hansen (1887 1975). Contents 1 Structure 2 Contents ... Wikipedia
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Economic cycles Cycle name Characteristic period Kitchin cycle 3 4 years Juglar cycle 7 11 years Blacksmith's cycle 15 25 years Kondratieff cycle 45 60 years Kondratieff cycles (K cycles or K waves) periodical cycles of the modern world economy ... ... Wikipedia
Economic cycles Cycle name Characteristic period Kitchin cycle 3 4 years Juglar cycle 7 11 years Blacksmith's cycle 15 25 years Kondratyev cycle 45 60 years Juglar cycles are medium-term economic cycles with a characteristic period of 7 11 years. Named by ... ... Wikipedia
The peak, or top of the business cycle, is the “high point” of an economic recovery. At this point, unemployment theoretically reaches its lowest level or disappears altogether, and the economy operates at its maximum or close to it load, i.e. almost all the capital and labor resources available in the country are involved in production. Usually, though not always, inflationary pressures increase during peaks.
A recession is a period of declining production and a decline in business activity. As a result of a falling business environment, a recession is usually characterized by an increase in unemployment. Most economists believe that officially an economic downturn, or recession, can only be considered a decline in business activity that has lasted for at least six months.
The bottom of the business cycle is the “lowest point” of production and employment. It is believed that reaching the bottom heralds the imminent end of the recession, since this phase of the cycle usually does not last long. However, history knows exceptions to this rule. The Great Depression of the 1930s, despite periodic fluctuations in business activity, lasted for almost a decade.
After reaching the lowest point of the cycle, the boom phase begins, which is characterized by an increase in employment and production. Many economists believe that this stage is characterized by low inflation rates, at least until the economy starts to operate at full capacity, i.e. until it peaks.
Although it is generally accepted that changes in business activity are directly or indirectly related to the economic cycle, there are other factors that affect the state of the economy. The most important of these are seasonal fluctuations and long-term trends. The influence of seasonal fluctuations can be traced at certain times of the year, for example, shortly before Christmas or Easter, when business activity increases sharply, especially in retail... In other sectors of the economy, for example in agriculture, automotive and construction industries are also subject to seasonal fluctuations. A secular trend is determined by a long-term increase or decrease in the rate of economic growth.
The business cycle is often associated with changes in output. Many economists believe that output, usually measured by gross domestic product (GDP), is the most reliable indicator of the health of an economy. It is important to note that the economic cycle in the recovery phase is manifested not in GDP growth as such, but in the rate of this growth. Negative values of the growth rate over a certain period of time, usually six or more months, are viewed as a sign of a downturn in the economy. In contrast, consistently high monthly growth rates indicate that the economy is booming.
Business cycle, stock market and investments.
Some types of activity tend to anticipate the change in the main phases of the economic cycle. This statement, at least before, was true for stock market... On average, until the late 1980s, the peak in the stock market outpaced peak business activity by about six months. Since the late 1980s, however, the well-established relationship between the behavior of the stock market and the economy as a whole has become much less obvious for the simple reason that the stock market began to experience only slight fluctuations against the background of an overall upward trend. Moreover, in the 1990s, the situation when activity on the stock market made it possible to predict the state of the economy as a whole changed to the opposite. At the same time, the discrepancy in the indicators of the stock market and the economy became more and more obvious: reports on the prosperous economic situation in the country often generated a negative reaction on Wall Street. This behavior of the stock market was mainly due to fears of investors that good economic news portends inflation.
Another factor correlating with the business cycle is the overall level of net investment in the economy. Indeed, prior to the 1960s, the rise in investment levels more or less corresponded to the boom, or boom phase. However, since the mid-1960s, despite the fact that the economic cycle has not broken, the volume of net investment, expressed as a percentage of GDP, has been steadily declining, albeit with some fluctuations. In the period 1964-1969, net investment amounted to 4.3% of GDP. Subsequently, this indicator continued to decline and in 1985-1989 fell to 2.6%, and during the economic recession of 1990-1991 - to 1.4%. Some economists argue that the gradual decline in net investment did not translate into a corresponding decline in business activity simply because the increased personal consumption, heavily reliant on credit, and the increased government spending(largely due to budget deficit financing in the period from the late 1960s to the late 1990s) more than offset the fall in private investment. Other economists argue that, despite small fluctuations in the overall decline in economic growth, which take the form of an economic cycle, a secular downward trend has been clearly visible since the 1960s. Indeed, since the 1960s, the duration of the ups and downs in the US economy has consistently decreased. Average annual rate economic growth in the 1960s was 3.8%, in the 1970s - 2.8%, in the 1980s - 2.5% and in the first half of the 1990s - 1.8%. This drop in rates can be explained by an increase in “speculative” investments (investments in ownership of existing assets or firms) due to a decrease in “real” capital investments (in the purchase of machinery and equipment and the construction of new plants and factories).
The impact of economic cycles.
Of the economic sectors, the services and non-durables sectors are less affected by the most damaging effects of the economic downturn. The recession even contributes to the revitalization of some activities, in particular, increases the demand for the services of pawnshops and lawyers specializing in bankruptcy. Firms that produce capital goods and consumer durables are most sensitive to cyclical fluctuations. These firms are not only the hardest hitting the downturn, but they are the ones who benefit the most from the recovery. The main reasons are two: the possibility of postponing purchases and monopolization of the market. The purchase of capital equipment can often be postponed for the future; in difficult times for the economy, manufacturers tend to refrain from purchasing new machinery and equipment and constructing new buildings. During prolonged recessions, firms often choose to repair or modernize outdated equipment rather than spending large sums on new equipment. As a result, investment in manufacturing goods is sharply reduced during economic downturns. The same applies to consumer durables. Unlike food and clothing, buying a luxury car or expensive home appliances can be put off until better times. During economic downturns, people are more likely to fix rather than change durable goods. While sales of food and apparel tend to decline as well, the decline is usually less than the decline in demand for durable goods.
Monopoly power in most capital goods and consumer durables stems from the fact that the markets for these goods are typically dominated by a few large firms. Their monopoly position allows them to keep prices at the same level during economic downturns, reducing production in response to falling demand. Consequently, falling demand affects production and employment much more than prices. A different situation is typical for industries producing non-durable goods. These industries usually respond to falling demand with a general decline in prices, since none of the firms has significant monopoly power.
Cycle reasons.
Since the business cycle is often at the center of the challenges faced by businesses, government and the public, the question of why booms and bust alternates are important. Numerous schools economic thought answer this question in different ways. For example, some economists associate periods of prosperity with important inventions (such as railways or synthetic materials); the irregularity of such inventions determines the cyclical nature of economic development. According to another point of view, the reasons for the existence of the economic cycle should be sought in external events, such as wars and subsequent periods of peaceful life. Another group of economists argues that the economic cycle is almost entirely determined by events in the monetary sphere. For example, an increase in the volume of the money supply, which includes both cash and credit instruments, stimulates the economy, while the reduction in the volume of the money supply depresses it. History in most cases confirms the close relationship between the business cycle and fluctuations in the volume of the money supply. However, facts relating to the end of the 20th century contradict this theory. Despite the steady contraction in real money supply in the first half of the 1990s, the economy continued a protracted, albeit weakly pronounced, recovery. However, few economists are willing to insist on a continuous increase in the money supply, since it is widely believed that over-stimulating the economy leads to excessive inflation.
Some other theories directly contradict each other. For example, some theorists argue that the capitalist economy naturally tends to achieve equilibrium, and therefore, if governments did not intervene in the economy, there would be no fluctuations in employment and prices. Other economists attribute fluctuations in the economy to non-monetary factors such as prices, interest rates and the level of unemployment, and "real" - like new technologies, resource scarcity and changes in labor productivity. The adherents of both theories believe that the economic policy of the state - regulation, redistribution, artificial stimulation - at best does not benefit the economy, and at worst it directly harms it. There is a third point of view: the modern economic system is characterized by instability and even a tendency to catastrophic collapse, therefore, in order for the economy to move in the right direction, even with some deviations, state intervention is required. This theory owes much of its appearance to the events of the Great Depression, such as the mass reset valuable papers and "raids" of depositors on banks. Finally, according to another theory, business cycles are inherent in the economic system. The line of reasoning here is as follows. When profits are high, firms have an incentive to expand production and hire more workers, a trend that gradually spreads throughout the economy. However, as a result of such actions of firms, unemployment is reduced, which may result in a decrease in their profits due to the strengthening of the position of workers in the labor market and higher wages. When profits fall, companies start laying off workers, raising the country's unemployment rate and lowering wages, and thereby restoring the previous level of profitability. However, mass layoffs, in turn, lead to a drop in demand for manufactured goods and, accordingly, to a recession in the economy. The process then begins again, thus opening a new cycle.
History and long cycles.
Business cycles are not truly “cyclical” in the sense that the length of a period, say, from one peak to another has fluctuated significantly throughout history. Although economic cycles in the United States lasted about five years on average, cycles are known to last from one to twelve years. The most pronounced peaks (measured as a percentage increase over the trend of economic growth) coincided with the great wars of the 20th century, and the deepest economic recession, excluding the Great Depression, was observed after the end of the First World War. It should be noted that along with the described economic cycle, the so-called. long cycles. Indeed, at the end of the 20th century. the US economy appears to be in a long recession, as evidenced by some economic indicators such as real wages and net investment. However, even with a long-term downward trend in growth, the US economy continues to grow; Although in the early 1980s, the country recorded a negative GDP growth, in all subsequent years, except for 1991, it remained positive. Symptomatic of the long-term recession that began in the 1960s is the fact that, although growth rates have rarely been negative, the level of economic activity in the United States has hardly exceeded the growth trend since 1979.
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