Currency fluctuations are not expected in May. Dollar and Euro Forecast for May

Especially for the subscribers of the blog, the site has compiled an accurate currency forecast for May 2016. All data was provided by experienced analysts from Amarkets and ForexClub. The forecast of the exchange rate for May 2016 includes currencies such as the euro and the dollar, which, in fact, interests our compatriots most of all.

Currency Forecast for May 2016

IN Lately the market saw the strengthening of the ruble against all world currencies. At least, such a conclusion can be made if we analyze the statistical data The Central Bank.

Irina Rogova, who currently holds the position of an analyst at ForexClub, recalled that the ruble is still under the influence of the price of black gold. Rogova added that the volume of oil production in the United States has continued to decline since the beginning of 2016, but speculative demand alone will not go far and oil is unlikely to rise above $ 50 per barrel. Rogova does not exclude that oil may reach this mark as early as next week. If oil prices continue to rise, it is not difficult to conclude that the dollar / ruble pair will go down. Rogova expects the price to drop to 63.4.

At the moment, the cost of oil is increasing after plummeting... The increase in value is associated with the fall of the dollar against the yen to lows since 2014.

Oil analyst Virendra Chauhuang said that oil prices are rising due to the depreciation of the dollar. The decline in the dollar makes black gold, which is traded in US currencies, lower in value for foreign exchange investors.

Other experts claim that the price of oil has gone up due to the fact that oil exporters have limited production. Despite some difficulties, in the near future, oil market participants may still come to a common denominator, which, in turn, will lead to price stabilization.

Recently, a representative of the Iranian oil company NIOC said that Tehran is ready to join the plan to freeze oil volumes due to the fact that Iran has already restored its previous volumes of oil production, which were before the imposition of sanctions. Let me remind you that it is for this reason that the countries that gathered in Doha on April 17 were unable to come to a common denominator.

A few days earlier, the director of the National Iranian Oil Company said that Iran had reached an oil production level of 3.7 million barrels per day. Tehran said yesterday that Iran has achieved its target and quoted a figure of 4.2 million.

Let me remind you that in Doha, the countries did not come to a common agreement, first of all, in connection with the refusal of Saudi Arabia to conclude an agreement, which insisted that all countries, including Iran, participate in the agreement.

It is also worth noting the fact that the previous estimate of an overabundance of black gold on the market was nevertheless overestimated. Alexander Novak said that prices could stabilize by the end of 2016. In this situation, oil prices will continue to rise.

Another reason for the strengthening of oil prices lies in the Fed's decision to keep the current interest rates in force. Previously, it was planned to raise rates on condition that the US economy will prosper. but current situation in America did not live up to the optimistic views, as a result of which it was decided to leave interest rates unchanged.

Selim Agarzayev, a spokesman for Metallinvestbank, said that maintaining current interest rates would have a positive effect on the ruble's position. This decision will lead to cheaper dollar and higher oil prices. Thanks to all these factors, the ruble managed to strengthen its position. However, soon the price of oil may suddenly reverse and head in the opposite direction.

The Russian government is still looking for ways to balance budget deficit... One of the possible instruments is the weakening of the ruble. As a result, the 2016 currency forecast can have several scenarios.

If the price of oil continues to rise, the ruble may rise to its 2016 high. In May, the dollar will cost 65 rubles, while the price of oil will be near the $ 50 per barrel mark. APECON assures that in May the dollar will fluctuate in the range of 65-68.

Some analysts admit that oil prices will drop to $ 36-34 per barrel. Such a cost can be established in the event that large oil companies fail to agree. Under such circumstances, the ruble will depreciate and may reach 80 rubles per dollar.

Euro exchange rate forecast for May 2016

Due to the economic downturn in Europe, the ECB is forced to expand the current easing program. The main task of the ECB is to improve the economy, including by reducing the refinancing rate, which is currently at zero. In addition, at the moment the European Union is closely engaged in solving the problems with refugees, which has already positively influenced the indicators of the economy. Euro forecast for 2016 may also have several scenarios. With a favorable set of circumstances for Russia in May, the value of the euro should be 73-75 rubles per euro. If the price of oil goes down, then our compatriots will have to pay 85-90 rubles for 1 euro.

The Russian government still needs to resolve the issue of the budget deficit, which, according to Aleksey Kudrin, will seriously surpass the previous forecasts of officials. The easiest way to solve the problem is emission, which will also lead to the devaluation of the Russian currency. Many analysts suggest that the government will resort to this method of solving the problem only as a last resort.

So, the currency forecast for May 2016 assumes 2 scenarios:

• the rise in oil prices to $ 50 per barrel and the strengthening of the ruble to 63 rubles per dollar and 75 rubles per euro;
• falling oil prices to $ 35 per barrel and devaluation of the ruble, dollar and euro will cost 80 and 90 rubles, respectively.

I bring to your attention an accurate forecast of the euro exchange rate for May 2016, provided by Amarkets.

In what currency - dollars, euros or still rubles it will be most profitable to store savings this year, AiF.ru found out from financial experts.

"We change the currency every quarter"

Gleb Zadoya, Head of Analytics Department, ANALITIKA Online:“The beginning of the year for investors all over the world was marked by the strengthening of the ruble and the decline in the value of the dollar and the euro. This trend is supported by many factors, including fundamental ones, such as the balance of the inflow and outflow of foreign exchange earnings in the course of international trade, the firmness of the positions of the budget, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Russia, as well as a general increase in GDP.

It is better to store funds this year in a basket of several currencies. At the beginning of the year - up to 80% in rubles and 20% in dollars and euros, by the middle of the year the portfolio can be increased with a decrease in the dollar and euro (the ruble may strengthen during the World Cup). And by the end of the year, you can shift in a different proportion - 60% ruble, 25% dollar and 15% euro.

Of course, this applies to strategic actions, i.e. intra-week jumps, for example, at Brexit or the Olympics, Mundiale, presidential elections, corrections due to the collapse of markets will require shifting currencies in the portfolio, but the total amount of assets in currencies for their optimal growth should be overweight in domestic currency ”.

"Or dollar, or ruble"

Evgeny Volkov, Head of Brokerage Operations Department, Rosevrobank: « Russian currency is actively growing and strengthening. This is due to the rise in the cost of Brent crude. It is most profitable to keep savings in rubles at the moment, since this growth is likely to continue for at least a month. But in general, the dollar behaves most stable and deposits in this currency are always considered more profitable. In addition, in the medium term, the dollar will begin to win back its lost positions in the world market ”.

"A strong ruble is the best investment"

Roman Blinov, expert of the International Financial Center:"While the course national currency is growing, and demand for Russian assets will dominate common sense, that is, the chances that a new devaluation of the ruble against the dollar and the euro will not occur.

Taking into account the fact that this year the presidential elections, we do not expect significant surprises in the foreign exchange market. We also do not expect a change in the economic paradigm and way of life in the country, and most likely after May - July 2018 we will really see everything that we have been waiting for so long. Namely, raising the retirement age, increasing the tax burden on the population.

Starting in the summer of 2018, we will be able to face not only the strengthening of the role and share of the state in most issues in the country, but also with real positive changes. And this can lead to a change in a number of vectors in economic development countries for the better and will lead to a new round of ruble growth.

In this regard, there is no need to buy up currency in bags and wait for the ruble to the US dollar exchange rate at the level of 150 rubles. "

"The most profitable investment is in the dollar"

Artem Deev, Lead Analyst at Amarkets:“In 2018, it is better to bet on the dollar, which promises to become the growth leader among currencies. developed countries... Market participants believe that the dollar will receive tangible support from strong macroeconomic data from the US, implemented tax reform, as well as the continued commitment of the Fed to policy of higher interest rates.

US household activity is projected to remain high, continuing to drive growth national economy, simultaneously influencing the growth of the yield of American bonds.

The “American” in the game against the ruble may also be supported by the decline in hydrocarbon prices. In the coming months, the countries participating in the OPEC + energy pact will return to the question of the expediency of further compliance with the agreement to reduce oil production. This alone may be enough for a reversal of oil quotes, which is already at risk of happening against the background of the outlined US plans to increase crude oil production. In other words, in the coming months, investors will again start talking about the problem of overproduction, which is fraught with the return of former sellers to the market. The downside potential for oil prices exceeds 10%. ”

28.04.16 09:38:00

Vadim Iosub, senior analyst at Alpari:

Large deviations of the ruble from current levels by the end of the month should not be expected. Most likely, we will meet May with the dollar exchange rate in the range of 64.5 - 66 rubles, euro 73 - 75 rubles.

A main attention financial markets chained this week to a decision on key rate, which the Central Bank of Russia will host on Friday. The regulator faces a daunting task.

On the one hand, the real sector of the economy suffers from a high level of interest rates on loans, on the other hand, a premature reduction in rates may undermine the trend towards slowing inflation and shift the population's preferences to saving in foreign currency. In this situation, the regulator may prefer to leave the rate unchanged, since in a situation of deviation from macroeconomic equilibrium and financial stability, there will be little benefit to the economy from cheaper loans.

The results of the FRS meeting will have little effect on the fate of the ruble. Economists and analysts expected a completely predictable decision: the US Federal Reserve left the base interest rate unchanged, at the level of 0.25-0.5 percent. And the decision to tighten monetary policy will be postponed until at least June.

Talking about external factors, the ruble is much more dependent on the dynamics of prices for black gold than on the decisions of foreign regulators.

The oil market as a whole continues to please, seemingly having completely forgotten all the negativity from the unsuccessful Doha summit. Brent crude oil began the month at $ 38.4 per barrel, and yesterday it managed to reach its maximum value since the first half of November last year at $ 47 per barrel. However, by the end of the day, prices for black gold fell to $ 45.8 per barrel against the background of statistics from the US Energy Information Agency (EIA), but it is unlikely to affect the long-term trend.

A greater risk for oil prices than weekly statistics is the continued excess of supply over demand in the world market. Against this background, it is difficult to expect a strong further growth oil prices from current levels. A scenario in which oil does not lose its positions by summer may be a good outcome. At least until global producers decide to freeze their production, there are no serious fundamental drivers for price growth.

The coming holiday season revives talk that the demand for currency from tourists can spur exchange rates foreign currencies... However, such expectations are usually groundless, and the factor of the "tourist season" is traditionally exaggerated. And in previous years, he did not exert serious pressure on the ruble, and now, given the decrease in demand for outbound tourism, there is no need to fear this even more so.

If, nevertheless, for someone resting abroad is relevant, then the question of when is it better to buy foreign currency should not worry too much. Given the significant decrease in volatility foreign exchange market when fluctuations in foreign currencies are reduced to 1-2 percent per month, it doesn't really matter whether to buy the currency in advance or just before the trip. It is unlikely that you can lose or earn much on this.

Some experts believe that the potential for ruble appreciation in May may be exhausted. These arguments are indirectly confirmed by statistics that the April-May periods have been the most favorable for the ruble over the past three years. This is mainly due to the rise in oil prices ahead of the auto season in the US and Europe. 2016 is also in line with the previous trends so far. From January values ​​of $ 30 per barrel, Brent rose to $ 48. Until the end of May, black gold may reach a psychologically important $ 50 per barrel. In this case, the ruble will cost 63-64 ruble per unit American currency.

What then?

However, May may be the last month of prosperity for the ruble in 2016.

• The consumer confidence index is at an all-time low. 70% of respondents do not believe in the improvement of the situation.
• The decline in industrial production with a break of one month has lasted for more than a year.
• Consumption fell by 9.6%, 76% are trying to save money, 61% refuse new clothes, 45% - from new electronics, and 52% of Russians have switched to cheaper products. At the same time, expenditures exceed incomes, and the poverty level will rise by almost 1% in 2016.
• Also, and oil revenues -. Imports decreased by 25%, investment in fixed assets by 7.6%,.
• But perhaps the most important and obvious indicator of growing problems is a significant decrease in interest rates on deposits in largest banks countries. 5-6% in rubles and 0% in foreign currency means that banks do not know what to do with money - the economy is at a standstill.

Summarizing all of the above, we can assume a downward trend in the ruble exchange rate, starting from the last days of May until the end of 2016, with a sufficiently high