New law on the birth of children. How much will the new birth control program cost?
The social bloc of the Russian government has proposed a package of measures to stimulate the birth rate. Experts in demographics told the site about what measures are actually worth taking to increase the birth rate in the country.
What measures have been proposed by the government?
To stimulate the birth rate in the country. The agency proposes to continue the payment maternity capital until 2023. This was stated by Minister Maxim Topilin.
It is noted that the program has been launched since 2007 and will be valid until the end of 2018. About 400 billion rubles a year are allocated for this state program, which is half of the state's expenses to support motherhood.
Another idea of the social bloc of the government is to increase the child care allowance for women who become mothers before the age of 25. The Ministry of Labor reported that such an idea would encourage women not to postpone the birth of their first child.
However, the department noted that "there is a risk that a woman under 25 years old will not have time to get an education, acquire a profession - and this will lead to women leaving the labor market."
The Ministry of Finance proposed other measures to stimulate the birth rate: to extend the payment of matcap until 2019, and then reformat the program. The department also put forward two conditions: to pay maternity capital only in regions where the birth rate is below the average for Russia, as well as to pay matkap in regions with a natural migration decline in the population, and only to those families whose income after the birth of a second child falls below 2.5 living wage.
It is noted that the Ministry is ready to use the saved money for other measures to stimulate the birth rate, including new targeted payments and benefits.
"Over the period of existence of maternity capital, Russia has almost taken the first place in terms of fertility in the world"
According to Chairman of the Board of the Regional Public Organization "Council for Public Health and Demography" Daria Khalturina, the measures proposed by the Ministry of Labor and the Ministry of Finance are not effective, since the small generation of the 90s become mothers.
“Older women are a much larger resource, and they need to be motivated no less than young mothers. Most likely, after 2023, they may limit the receipt of maternity capital, despite the fact that maternity capital has proven to be an effective measure that can be borrowed other the developed countries. During the period of existence of maternity capital, Russia has come out almost in first place in terms of fertility in the world," Khalturina said in an interview with the site.
She noted that the most effective measures to stimulate the birth rate are "live payments" (cash that a young mother can immediately receive).
"It would also be advisable to increase the opportunities for the implementation of matkapa. Tax deductions for parents should be reduced, since we have the largest contingent of the poor in the country. Another effective measure could be the availability of childcare services for children up to the age of three. For example, a nursery, o which no one talks about, some kind of home kindergartens.It is also possible to establish subsidies for nannies, make kindergartens more client-oriented - they should not close for the summer, but should work until seven in the evening, not until six. There is also a practice of flexible hours for parents in the world in less responsible jobs. If this is the profession of an air traffic controller, then we are not talking about a flexible schedule. But if this is a designer, then mom or dad could agree with the management on what time to come or about the opportunity to work for some time. For example, in Australia such the practice was introduced by law," the expert on demography explained.
"If new measures are not taken to support the birth rate and prevent mortality, the Russian population will be reduced to 140 million people by 2020"
She also added that there are dozens of studies on Russian demographics. One of these reports was published in 2014, co-authored by Daria Khalturina. In the report of the Institute for Scientific and Public Expertise of the International Laboratory of Political Demography and Macrosociological Dynamics of the RANEPA it says that in last years improved in Russia demographic situation. According to preliminary data, the number of births in Russia in 2013 for the first time in the last 20 years exceeded the number of deaths, in connection with which the number of deaths was reached. natural increase population. Such results were brought about by a successful state policy to support the birth rate, reduce the harmful consumption of alcohol and develop a system medical care.
Experts calculated several scenarios for the demographic development of Russia until 2050.
"Unless new measures are taken to support the birth rate and prevent mortality, the Russian population will decrease to 140 million people by 2020 and to 113 million by 2050," RANEPA experts concluded.
Experts also noted that the potential for demographic growth in Russia is higher than in European countries, and measures to support families with children can give better results at lower costs than in OECD countries (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development - website).
“In terms of adherence to traditional family values, Russia scores higher than most European countries, including states with higher birth rates. Evidence shows that those countries that apply truly effective family policy measures manage to achieve precisely systematic (and not limited to two to three years) of a rise in the birth rate," the document says.
According to Rosstat, in the first quarter of 2017, the birth rate in Russia fell by 10.1 percent. In the capital, in 2016, the birth rate increased by two percent compared to the previous year.
"There is no family approach and interaction with the family. More than 30 percent of children in Russia are brought up without fathers"
Scientific Director of the Independent Institute of Family and Demography Igor Beloborodov told in an interview with the site that it is necessary to stimulate not only young mothers, but also fathers to have children, and in general, to influence the family in a complex way.
“The problem is that in the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Labor there is not a single person with a demographic education, there are functionaries who look at everything through an outdated Soviet prism. I haven’t heard new measures. This is just strengthening the old measure - increasing benefits. when they stimulate young mothers. But I don’t see the stimulation of young dads. There is no family approach and interaction with the family. More than 30 percent of children in Russia are brought up without fathers. It is impossible to build a demographic policy on matriarchal grounds, "the expert explained.
He also named a number of measures that, in his opinion, will be able to raise the birth rate in Russia.
"It is necessary to add a family-oriented approach, work not only for the mother, but also for the whole family, as well as work with the target group - families with many children. It is much easier to induce families that have given birth to a third child to give birth to a fourth than those who have given birth to the first to induce to give birth to a second. To improve the demographic situation in Russia, 20 percent of large families with five or six children will be enough. This is a completely feasible task that does not require special funds," Beloborodov said.
He stressed that Russia is already on the edge demographic hole. The scientific director made such conclusions based on the statistics of marriages for 2016.
"In 2016, there were 200 thousand fewer marriages than in previous years. This (demographic crisis - website) is already taking place, which only confirms my conclusions that we need to work with those who are ready to give birth. The state owes them ( large families- website) to show that their social status will grow in proportion to the number of children in the family," Beloborodov concluded.
Previously, the Minister of Labor and Social Protection of Russia on the system of monthly payments.
In his opinion, monthly payments will cost the state much more. In addition, matkap is a system for stimulating the birth of children, and not support for families.
UDC 314.335.044
FERTILITY SUPPORT
© F.N. Semevsky
Key words: demographic policy; demography; cultural heritage; economy; GDP. The preservation of the people should be a priority task of the state. Birth support should be built taking into account the main provisions of the theory of human population dynamics, the provisions of macroeconomics and psychology. The encouragement of fertility must be combined with the condemnation of celibacy and childlessness. People should be given a choice of forms of support. Demographic policy should be specific in each region. Now the ruling groups prefer measures that have the form of encouragement, rather than coercion or prohibition. In countries with high GDP per capita, there is a dependence of the total fertility rate (TFR) on the intensity of fertility support, expressed as % of GDP. The causality of efforts to support fertility and the total fertility rate (TFR) may be reversed, i.e. in places where the TFR is lower, efforts to support fertility may be higher. As a result, the birth-support effect should be underestimated. Support for fertility comes in the form of many small payments and benefits, the receipt of which requires significant efforts from parents who already have many worries. The funds allocated to support the birth rate are insufficient to restore simple reproduction. A tax on childlessness, combined with payments to parents, is the best way to support the birth rate, which does not require additional budgetary expenditures.
From the moment of isolation from the biota of the Earth of a person with a fundamentally new mechanism of heredity - culture, the problem of reducing the birth rate has arisen.
From the theory of human population dynamics follows the need to support the birth rate in civilized states by the government.
Effectiveness public policy birth support in Newest time is beyond doubt.
Consideration of the experiments of the ban on abortions in Russia and Romania leads to the conclusion that they significantly increased the birth rate, although their effect weakened over time. The latter is not surprising, since a person adapts to change external environment. It does not follow from this that its behavior does not depend on the environment.
Now the ruling groups prefer measures that have the form of encouragement, rather than coercion or prohibition.
From the study of the effect of measures to support the birth rate, it follows that they increase the birth rate, although, as a rule, not enough. All serious researchers have come to this conclusion.
Fertility increase lump sums(medium) monthly allowances(medium-weak), tax deductions affect but only the rich, subsidies (possibly weak), speed bonuses (debatable), housing subsidies families with children (possibly), length of parental leave (affects non-linearly), pay for parental leave (affects positively), paternity leave (affects egalitarian families), flexible and part-time employment regimes (affects positive), the development of home care and childcare services (possibly), compensation for part of the maintenance
enrollment of a child in a preschool institution (possibly), subsidizing the receipt higher education(does not affect), subsidizing medical services(does not affect).
P. McDonald reviewed the evaluations of the effectiveness of economic measures to support childbearing. The researchers conclude that such a policy produces positive results. The following figures are given: for every 10% increase in child benefit as a share of family income accounts for 25% of women's increased fertility; if the number of children attending preschool institutions increases by 20%, then the total fertility rate (TFR) of the cohort increases by 0.05 children.
IN South Korea with the introduction of the family planning program, the TFR from 1983 to 2012 fell from 2.1 to 1.23. V. Kim, based on a model that includes survey data on the desired number of children, calculated the amount of benefits needed to restore the birth rate. To restore the simple reproduction of the population, according to his calculations, 6.6% of GDP will be required.
In the early 1980s local authority The city of Naberezhnye Chelny caused an explosion in the birth rate, providing a one-room apartment for the first child, a two-room apartment for the second, and a three-room apartment for the third.
The effect of demographic policy is observed when comparing the TFR with the intensity of birth support in the cantons of Switzerland. This policy is adopted by each account independently. J. Bonoli calculated multiple regression coefficients of the TFR with standardized measures of factors unrelated to cantonal population policy, benefits, and the number of kindergartens per thousand employed women. Both demographic policy indicators showed a statistically significant relationship with the TFR.
J. Bonoli concludes that the best policy is one that makes it easier for a woman to combine work with family life.
In countries with high GDP per capita, there is a dependence of the TFR (7) on the intensity of birth support (X), expressed as % of GDP
7 \u003d 0.105X + 1.378.
To raise the birth rate to the level of simple reproduction, it is necessary to spend 6.9% of GDP1 on supporting the birth rate.
Note that the causal relationship between efforts to support fertility and TFR may be reversed, i.e., in places where TFR is lower2, efforts to support fertility may be higher. As a result, the birth-support effect should be underestimated.
PSYCHOLOGY
Public policy, in order to be effective, must be based on the principles of psychology. In textbooks and summaries on individual issues, one can extract the following provisions that are relevant to our topic.
1. Different people, unlike all types of the Earth's biota, strive for different goals, optimize different criteria in different sets of values.
2. People are not very smart (limitedly rational). Smarter experts.
3. A person is extremely easy to persuade.
4. It is possible to achieve a given behavior from animals and people with the help of encouragement, punishment and sometimes an example.
5. People tend to give more importance to events happening now and not to take into account events in the distant future.
ECONOMY
It is known that taxes on labor and capital suppress production, but taxes on natural rent do not. In our country, and in almost all capitalist countries, rent taxes (payments) occupy a modest share in state revenues. This is due to the fact that the appropriation of natural rent is the foundation of the income of the ruling group and its power.
Government revenue are made up of tax revenues (83%). Among them, rent payments (payment for subsoil, land, water, standing timber) are less than 12%. Among non-tax revenues, perhaps only fines (1%) do not suppress production, since pollution charges have recently been abolished.
vices tax system lead to the fact that benefits aimed at supporting the birth rate (as well as other budget spending), seize from the people sums twice their size.
In economics, to compare economic events distributed over time, discount is used.
1 Based on the actual effectiveness of fertility support in Western Europe. With a reasonable demographic policy - less (See below).
2 For example, in connection with the confessional composition. In Switzerland, Protestant women have an average number of children per life of 1.35, Catholic women - 1.41, Muslim women - 2.44.
tying. Income A, received today, corresponds to income Aeb", received at the moment D, where b is the discount factor. This is relevant to the assessment of "maternity capital"3 and other deferred payments for children.
There are market and non-market utilities. Market utilities are measured in monetary units based on the theory of marginal utility. Non-market utilities, such as security, children, life, etc., are difficult to measure. Economists equate them with budget expenditures. Market economic theory proceeds from the premise of the rational behavior of people and institutions. Individuals strive for the maximum satisfaction of their needs, the state - for the highest growth of social welfare. All this is good, but the behavior of people is limitedly rational, and the behavior of the state is even more so. Market theory leads to absurdity in the case of goods like drugs. In fact, monetary valuations of non-market utilities are set by the state under pressure from representatives of the ruling group and sometimes voters. Both do not know enough to make a rational decision. Estimates of non-market utilities are unreliable4.
It seems that science can cope with such tasks better, but it has no power. Nevertheless, science can advise, and sometimes its advice is heeded.
OPTIMAL FERTILITY MANAGEMENT POLICY
A state that recognizes that having children is good and not having children is bad needs to control information flows.
A modern person is bombarded with information that can be ordered along many axes. According to sources (family, school, Internet); by type (music, literature, synthetic); in terms of quality, baseness is elitism (an anecdote, a ditty, a philosophical treatise), etc.
Information is often a commodity that generates income for producers and sellers (for example, a detective), or something that is recognized as useful, but not convenient for sale and requires budgetary expenses for production and distribution.
Information in one form or another has always been filtered and is now being filtered by individuals and groups in power. The state, big business, owners of television channels, publishers, and finally, consumers select information. At the same time, state censorship is extremely unpopular.
The state filters information, although it is hindered by the provisions of the dominant ideology - secular humanism, the declaration of human rights, international
3 Perhaps the legislators miscalculated and only as a result had some success. Since 2009, maternity capital has been used with the help of lawyers to purchase a mortgage loan immediately after receiving a certificate.
4 Russian family culture has recently been very different from the culture of the Germanic peoples (Nosevich, 2001). Even now, young families, according to our observations, receive powerful support from the older generation. Perhaps the conclusion about the advantage of late childbearing, especially given the increased risk of genetic defects in children, is not applicable to Russia.
native obligations, the constitution. Pornography is filtered using Art. 242 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation, inciting intergroup hatred - art. 282 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation, propaganda of drugs - art. 6.13 of the Code of Administrative Offenses of the Russian Federation.
The current government activity in this direction seems reasonable, but we would like to increase its effectiveness.
Much has been written about the benefits of art. There is no doubt that the creators of culture benefit from art. It seems that if there is a benefit for society, then it is generated by the best works. Fiction has been interested in falling in love. Marital love, family and children occupied her very little. From a demographic point of view, in modern times and now, it has brought and is bringing more harm than good. Of course, there are exceptions.
Many people are now convinced that children will not bring them happiness. Most likely they are wrong. Perhaps informing them in this area would be helpful.
Obviously, pregnancy, childbirth and childcare cause inconvenience, suffering, anxiety. Raising a child, especially when it is combined with work, is associated with lack of sleep and overwork. The economic situation of a family with children worsens compared to those with no children. This is not to say that the belief in a negative relationship between having children and happiness is not based on anything. Early research on this issue found a drop in happiness, life satisfaction after childbirth, and many others.
More recent studies that distinguish between groups of respondents and rely on time series of changes in these estimates lead to different conclusions. Children bring happiness to married persons. Roommates, divorced, never married get less satisfaction from life. Happiness, life satisfaction begins to increase long before the moment of conception (4 years), reaches a maximum at the time of childbirth, then decreases, but still exceeds the level of these feelings in childless men and women. Well-off women who give birth late are slightly more satisfied than those who give birth early. The first child gives the greatest happiness. A third child often does not contribute to increased life satisfaction. In old age, the difference between women with children and childless is erased (in the US, in Russia, perhaps this is not the case). The husband is more happy about the birth of a boy than a girl. Subsequent children do not reduce his life satisfaction. These results were obtained using data from Denmark, Germany, the UK and the USA.
A survey of women over 45 and men over 50 in Hungary gave following results. Childless in 90% of cases regret that they do not have children; having one child would like to have more in 70% of cases; parents of two children - in 20% of cases.
People should be offered several ways to support fertility so that they can choose the option that is consistent with their life goals.
Pictures of the world and their core value systems determine the life goals of people and, indirectly, the birth rate. The picture of the world is determined by the genotype, material environment, family upbringing, information
information coming from the small group in which they are included, mass information coming from professional informants, the state in the form of propaganda and coercion. It includes metaphysical elements.
A rare family is capable of resisting external pressure.
The life goals of people are diverse, and change in history. Until modern times, men (of the dominant group) aspired to exploits, glory, virtue, holiness5. Gradually, the glory of the artist and scientist is added to the glory of the warrior. Labor is not highly valued. In the XVIII century. knightly morality gives way to bourgeois morality. At present, people strive for wealth, power, success.
In Russia, change has been slower, but in Lately we have caught up with the English-speaking countries and overtaken Western Europe.
Our high school students at the beginning of the 20th century. chose future profession based on interest in the cause and altruistic considerations, only 1% aspired to wealth. In the 1960s-1970s. people believed that personal happiness brings useful work (96%), good health (85%), family and children (73%). In 1982 and again in 1997, using a single methodology (the method of unfinished sentences) under the guidance of V.B. Olshansky, a study was made of the values and attitudes of secondary school students (grades 6-10). During this period, the share of references to moral aspirations as the main life problem has decreased by 6 times; the share of those oriented toward entering universities and acquiring professions fell from 18.8% in 1982 to 10.45% in 1997. The desire for money has quadrupled. Sociological surveys lead to the conclusion that today's youth rarely chooses the creation of a family as a goal, preferring the pursuit of well-being even in the interval of 19-30 years, the most suitable for childbearing. M.G. Leontiev for young people aged 17-19 years old in a provincial town gives the following distribution according to life goals: live in abundance - 26%, get a job Good work- 13%, get a good education - 9%, earn a lot of money - 8%, buy expensive things - 7%, have your own apartment - 3%, start your own business - 2%, ensure the future of children - 8%. All of these goals ultimately come down to increasing wealth (76%). They strive to create a good family - 24%.
At the same time, birth support in a form that allows you to combine work and childcare will be more attractive than career-oriented benefits for parents that are extended over time. Parents with three children are unlikely to be interested in nurseries and kindergartens.
In addition to the two groups discussed above, there are many others. For example, there are rich and poor, English-speaking and non-English-speaking, criminals and law-abiding citizens.
Now support for fertility is expressed in the form of many small payments and benefits, the receipt of which requires significant efforts from parents who already have many worries. It should have been
5 What life goals were pursued by other groups,
harder to say.
give people a few simple but different options.
It was shown above that the funds allocated to support the birth rate are insufficient to restore simple reproduction. Childlessness tax combined with payments to parents -best way support of the birth rate, which does not require additional budget expenditures.
From the weakness of the human mind noted above, it follows, in particular, that the optimization of demographic policy should not go beyond the boundaries of purely demographic issues. The issues of increasing or decreasing the absolute value of state support are not considered below. The demographer cannot argue that, for example, defense spending should be reduced and support for the birth rate should be increased. In the case of the childlessness tax, this requirement is met.
The Internet community and the Duma are extremely negative about the tax on childlessness6, but do not object so strongly to tax deductions and benefits for families with children.
Opponents of the tax on childlessness put forward a number of arguments: the tax will be discriminatory, infringe on the rights of citizens and violate articles of international law, the constitution, and laws of the Russian Federation. People suffering from physiological infertility will suffer. They will have to bring relevant certificates.
“The unethical and even immoral nature of the tax on childlessness is obvious. Childlessness (I'm not talking about physiological childlessness) is a person's choice. By his choice, he does not make anyone worse, he does not take anything away from anyone, he does not make anyone unhappy. All this seems to us frivolous7.
The childlessness tax, combined with payments to parents, is presented best remedy economic support for fertility. This is because he, in essence, also withdraws the rent that arises from the refusal to procreate (investment in the future).
This idea was put forward and substantiated by P. Demeny. It boils down to granting the right to vote to children, and the implementation of the right is entrusted to
6 State Duma deputy A.V. Chuev, Chairman of the All-Russian Organization of Entrepreneurs "Business Russia" B.Yu. Titov, Archpriest Dmitry Smirnov.
7 It suffices to call the tax mandatory contributions to the birth support fund, and most of these arguments will disappear.
People suffering from physiological infertility present some problem. However, not all of them suffer from this now. Judging by the widespread use of voluntary sterilization, there are few of them. They should be granted the right to exemption from tax, but this right should not be exercised. They have the opportunity to raise a child or pay a tax, taking comfort in the fact that it actually goes to the children. In any case, mandatory health insurance, mandatory contributions in Pension Fund infringe on freedom more than the tax on childlessness. The author of the above quotation forgets about unborn children who have been deprived of the right to life, and about those who are born, who will be forced to support and protect in old age, except for their parents and their peers who have abstained from childbearing.
parents or guardians. This idea was put forward much earlier and later.
Secular humanists consider children to be subhuman. They can be killed in the fetal phase. Within a month after birth, the murder of an infant is highlighted in special kind and is punished more mildly than the murder of an adult person8. A child under the age of 10 cannot appear in court. The life of a teenager is valued lower than the life of an adult. Until the age of majority, he is deprived of the right to vote in elections at all levels. Legislators are not embarrassed by either these facts or the contradictions with Art. 2 of the Convention on the Rights of the Child and Art. 20, 38, 45 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation.
Such a measure seems reasonable and useful. The author is not a supporter of radical reforms and believes that it should be implemented at the regional level and see what happens.
Other ways to support fertility
The options considered are not exhaustive. possible ways birth support.
In history, we observe a continuous expansion of the area of intervention of state power in public life. At each step in this direction, some specific tasks are solved, but the side effects of changing the environment in which a person acts on his behavior are usually ignored.
1. People now have ample opportunities to prevent conception and avoid caring for a child: sterilization, vaginal and oral contraceptives, abortion (killing the fetus), refusing to raise a child immediately after birth. The possibility of avoiding childbearing has a negative effect on fertility. In dying peoples governmental support these actions are unnatural. This activity and medicine have nothing in common. Hippocrates was right.
2. A.N. Koshelev proposes reform measures pension system and giving adolescents the right to work. These are reasonable suggestions.
3. Measures against drug addiction, alcoholism and other types of abnormal behavior are needed. Drug addicts and alcoholics have a diverse negative impact on society, including lowering the birth rate by 28%9. However, this is the subject of study of criminology rather than demography. In addition, the policy of the state in relation to groups with deviant (deviant) behavior has a strong influence on the quality of offspring, but this issue is beyond the scope of this study.
4. We gave rough estimates of the negative impact of twenty-one factors on fertility: 14 material and 7 informational.
Such assessments can and should be taken into account by experts in other fields when they make recommendations to the authorities. For example, we are witnessing the reform of education. The author does not take the liberty of speaking about the quality of the reforms, but
8 The number of such murders has increased tenfold since the passage of the law.
9 The birth rate of alcoholics is quite high.
considers it his duty to declare that the transition to an eleven-year school education from a ten-year one reduces the birth rate by 2-3%.
Human life in the United States is now estimated by the state at 1-3 million dollars. Half a million children are born in Russia every year. Hence, the transition to 11-year secondary education brings losses of 22 billion dollars a year due to a decrease in the birth rate.
In Russia, there is no decently justified assessment of human life by the authorities. This estimate is related to gross domestic income per capita and should be reduced for Russia. At the same time, the effect of the transition should be reduced to $10 billion. It is possible that the reformers did not conduct a comprehensive assessment of the ongoing reforms, but simply imitated the dying Europe, and in vain.
5. To develop an optimal policy to support the birth rate, experience is needed, and science does not have the opportunity to experiment in this area. It seems promising joint work of government and science in the form of an order from the authorities for detailed plans for regional birth support systems by authoritative demographers. Experiments on groups of people are better than experiments on peoples.
LITERATURE
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24. Koshelev A.N. Necessary state policy measures to overcome the demographic crisis and the extinction of the indigenous population of Russia in the 21st century. // Report at the All-Russian Forum "The Sanctity of Motherhood". 2012. URL: http://www.demographia.ru/articles_N/index.html?idR=5&idArt=2169 (Accessed 15.05.2015).
Semevski F.N. SUPPORT OF FERTILITY
Saving of the people should be considered as the main task of the government policy. Support of the fertility must be based on the fundamentals of the human population dynamics theory, macroeconomics and psychology. Birth rate boosting should be combined with the condemnation of celibacy and childlessness. People must have a choice of the boosting rate form, and the population policy must be specific for each region. Now the ruling groups prefer measures having kind of encouragement rather than coercion or prohibition. In countries with high GDP per capita observed dependence of the total fertility rate (TFR) of the intensity of support for the birth rate, expressed as % of GDP. Causation efforts to support the birth rate and the rate of total fertility (RTF) can have the opposite direction, in places where the rate of total fertility (RTF) below, efforts to support the birth rate may be higher. As a result, the effect of supporting the birth rate must be low. Support fertility is expressed in the form of many small payments and benefits, the preparation of which requires the parents already have a lot of concerns, a significant effort. The funds allocated to support the birth rate, insufficient for the recovery of simple reproduction. Family tax payments in conjunction with the parents -is the best way to support the birth rate, which does not require budget expenditures.
Key words: demographic policy; demography; cultural heredity; economics; GDP.
Semevsky Fedor Nikolaevich, Institute of Geography Russian Academy Sciences, Moscow, the Russian Federation, Doctor of Biological Sciences, Leading Researcher, e-mail: [email protected]
Semevski Fedor Nikolaevich, Institute of Geography of Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation, Doctor of Biology, Leading Scientific Worker, e-mail: [email protected]
Vladimir Putin called the aggravation of the demographic situation in Russia a predictable trend. “I mean the decline during the Great Patriotic War, and about the same decline in the mid-90s due to the huge problems that arose in the economy, and, in fact, the collapse in social sphere", the President explained.
During the Coordinating Council for the Implementation of the National Action Strategy for Children, the Russian leader called for "taking a set of measures that will stabilize and prevent a decrease in the population of Russia in the coming decade" - in fact, reset demographic policy.
According to the president, support for large families, as well as families with modest income, creating additional incentives for the birth of a second and third child. Putin urged to pay special attention to young families.
Thus, the president proposes to introduce monthly payments to young families at the birth of their first child from 2018 until they reach one and a half years. The amount will be calculated from the subsistence level of the child, established in the region.
Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation: “On average, it will amount to 10,523 rubles in 2018, 10,836 rubles in 2018, and 11,143 rubles in 2020. In this case, the payment will be targeted. I think it’s fair to support those who really need it first.”
In addition, in Russia they can extend the maternity capital program until December 31, 2021, as well as expand the scope of its application. Matkapital can also be used to pay for preschool education services - for the care and supervision of a child from the age of two months. Families in particular need can start receiving monthly payments from the mother's capital account, Putin stressed.
Putin announced the preparation of a special mortgage program for families with a second or third child - they will be able to count on state subsidies interest rate over 6% per annum. Families in which a second or third child is born from January 1, 2018 will be able to use the opportunities of such a program.
Also, the Russian leader demanded to eliminate the queues in the nursery for children from 2 months to 3 years, by analogy with the measures taken in relation to kindergartens. “Now applications have been received from parents of more than 326,000 children. The same number of nursery places is planned to be created in the next two years,” the President of the Russian Federation said.
Separately, the president noted the problem with the quality of children's medical care. He noted that in recent years there has been a "good breakthrough" in the creation of perinatal centers in the regions, but the state of most children's clinics leaves much to be desired. And he demanded to work on this issue. The federal budget in the next three years will annually allocate 10 billion rubles to the regions of the Russian Federation for the reconstruction and equipping of children's clinics, the Russian leader said.
According to the head of state, the implementation of the measures he proposed to improve the birth rate in the country will yield results.
Vladimir Putin: "We are talking about the future of the country, about the fact that as many children as possible are born in Russia, and that their living conditions improve, medical care improves."
The head of state announced a large-scale reform of demographic policy. The new measures will help those who do not have enough money to decide to raise a family. And they will start working in 2018. Payments for the birth of the first child are being introduced, the mother capital program is being extended, the possibility of using its funds is expanding, and a special mortgage loan program will appear. And also there will be no queues in the nursery and clinics.
"We need active work both to reduce mortality and to stimulate the birth rate," Vladimir Putin said at a meeting of the President's Coordinating Council for the implementation of the national strategy of action in the interests of children for 2012-2017. "Children are the future of Russia," he stressed.
"We need to reset our demographic development policy," the president continued. - In the foreground to support the stimulation of the birth rate - large families with modest incomes, as well as the creation of additional incentives for the birth of second and third children. "Particular attention is given to young families," he said. Most often, their incomes are very small and this often holds back the birth of children.
"Measures were discussed for a long time and the time has come to make a decision and announce it," the head of state said. New measures to support Russian families will start working from January 1, 2018.
First: there will be a monthly cash payment at the birth of the first child and until they reach 1.5 years. The amount will be calculated from the subsistence level of the child in the region for the 2nd quarter of the previous year of applying for specified payment. On average, in 2018 the amount will be 10,532 rubles, in 2019 - 10,836 rubles, in 2020 - 11,143 rubles. The payment will be targeted, taking into account the income of families - it will be received by those whose earnings are not more than one and a half times the cost of living able-bodied population in the region. Expenses for this program over three years will amount to 144.5 billion rubles.
The second is maternity capital. 11 years have passed since the introduction of this measure, and the project was supposed to end at the end of next year. But people are asking what will happen next, Putin noted and announced: it was decided to extend the program until December 31, 2021.
In fact, we need to reset our demographic development policy
And that's not all: there will be additional features use of capital. Those in particular need will be able to receive funds in the form of monthly payments. That is, the approach here is the same, targeted. And parents will receive funds in the same way until the child is one and a half years old. It will also be possible to direct maternity capital to pay for the services of kindergartens and nurseries - already from 2 months. "Mom will be able to continue her work or education," Putin said.
It has already been announced that the number of regions that receive co-financing from the federal budget for the payment of benefits for the third child will be expanded. This allowance is provided until the child is three years old. The criteria for need are set by the regions. Co-financing goes where there is an unfavorable demographic situation and the total birth rate is below the average for Russia. This year, 50 regions benefited from co-financing. And from 2018, 60 regions will be able to receive it, those where two or fewer children are born, that is, the regional birth rate is increasing.
Another measure that is extremely important for young families is housing. Putin announced the launch of a special mortgage loan program. From January 1, 2018, subsidized interest rates in excess of 6 percent will be provided for three years from the date of issuance of the loan for the second child and five years for the third. This applies both to purchases in the primary market and to the refinancing of previously obtained loans. The measure will be able to cover over 500,000 families in five years, the president said. Moreover, if the program is coming to an end, and the child has just been born, then the period for granting subsidies will be extended.
Another problem is the queues in the nursery. In kindergartens, they are practically eliminated. Now you need to do the same for the little ones. Over 326,000 jobs must be created in two years.
It is necessary to increase the availability and improve the quality of medical care, the head of state said. There was a good breakthrough in the creation of perinatal centers, but there are big problems in children's polyclinics both with equipment and with queues. This is a deterrent when deciding on the birth of a child, the president believes.
We are talking about the future of the country, about the fact that as many children as possible are born in Russia and that their living conditions improve.
More than 50 billion rubles will be required for the reconstruction of children's polyclinics and their re-equipment. The regions will not be able to do this only at their own expense, Putin noted. Therefore, over the course of three years, the bulk of the amount - 10 billion rubles a year - will be provided by federal budget. The head of state instructed the government and regions to quickly work out a detailed schedule for reconstruction and overhaul, approve the terms of co-financing and select polyclinics.
"We are talking about the future of the country, so that as many children as possible are born in Russia and that living conditions improve," the president concluded. His speech in the hall was met with applause.
Federation Council speaker Valentina Matviyenko thanked the head of state for his personal attention to this problem. "I'm in a good way shocked by what I heard: these are not some cosmetic proposals!" - she said.
The national strategy for the benefit of children made it possible to consolidate efforts around this topic, the speaker of the Federation Council said. For the first time, the state has addressed the issue of childhood on such a "large-scale, systematic and firm basis" and much has already been decided.
"I'm sure next year will be a record year in terms of having children," Matvienko expects. "Children's" budget spending is growing from year to year, she said. It was possible to halve the number of orphans in orphanages and on special registration, there is no such thing in the world, the chairman of the Federation Council added.
The child population of our country has grown by 3 million in five years, Deputy Prime Minister Olga Golodets calculated. But not all regions are ready to implement the measures indicated by the president, she noted. For example, regarding the allowance for a third child, the Perm Territory did not put such an allowance into its budget, the deputy chairman of the government was indignant. There are seven regions where the problem of queues in kindergartens has not been closed, Golodets also said. And in the first place here is Crimea. However, in the next three years the situation should be resolved.
At the meeting, the results of the implementation of the National Action Strategy for Children were summed up. It was designed for five years. "The strategy has indeed acquired an all-Russian and national character, and, of course, it could not have been otherwise, since we are talking about children, about the future of Russia,” Putin said. “On the whole, the results are very worthy, positive,” he assessed. This year, the president announced the start of the Decade of Childhood, and yesterday he supported the idea of creating a body to control the implementation of the project: this work Putin also agreed with the proposal to mitigate the criminal law against juvenile offenders for a number of crimes. And speaking of juvenile justice issues, he stressed that it is unacceptable to infringe on the interests of parents. "We have our own traditions of a strong family, and this shameless interference in family life is unacceptable," he concluded.
love talent
After announcing new steps to improve the demographic situation in the country, Vladimir Putin met in the Kremlin over a cup of tea with the winners of the All-Russian Family of the Year contest. This year, 322 families from 85 regions took part in it.
The competition is being held for the second year, but the number of participants has increased dramatically, the President noted. “The family is the foundation of our entire society, the entire state, but it’s not even so much about that. It’s primarily about the human component. We all love children, we understand that this is our future, but not everyone can properly build work, properly organize this work in families, - he said. - In a family, of course, everything happens, as elsewhere, but talent - namely talent - of people who manage to overcome all difficulties, and manage to overcome them, if not easily, then on the basis of kindness and love to a friend, this talent is worth a lot, just like the talent to create an atmosphere of warmth, kindness, mutual support." "Here you are succeeding, with which I first of all congratulate you," Putin added.
The head of state said that a whole package of programs had been prepared to support families with children. And it turned out that he anticipated the questions that were asked at the meeting, and many of the requests made there.
A treat was prepared for the table: wild berries, crumbly cookies, macaroons and even a candy, for some reason, on a fork. But after the president's opening speech, the participants were a little confused - many did not dare to touch the dishes. Then the President encouraged them. "The candy sticks out appetizingly on the fork," he smiled, "people think whether you can start or not, you can!"
Infographics "RG": Leonid Kuleshov/Anton Perepletchikov/Alexander Smirnov/Alexandra Beluza
The families were from various regions, including new ones. The President promised to create a modern museum complex with branches of leading museums in Sevastopol. “I recently spoke about Vladivostok, where the Hermitage and the Russian Museum are planning to open their branches. To do this, we have created a separate modern museum complex. I think the same can be done for Sevastopol. And we will definitely do it,” he promised. In general, one should think about the construction of modern cultural facilities in Sevastopol, Putin believes. We need a good musical theatre, training bases for theatrical workers.
“We would build even more, we are ready to allocate as much funds as necessary in order to achieve at least the average Russian level and above. The question is in the capacity building complex who works in Crimea,” the president responded to the gratitude of the laureates for the development of the peninsula. “Frankly speaking, I don’t really want to involve massively from outside ... I want local residents, local companies to work, but their capacities are still limited,” he added.
One of the guests, an international master of sports in archery, spoke about the organization of children's competitions in this sport. “There is still a lot to be done to support archery in general,” the head of state said. “We will do it gradually, especially since we have good results in this sport, it needs to be supported.”
Putin also appreciated the poem about his hard work: it was read right at the meeting by a poet, a father with many children from Sakhalin. The work is called: "I do not envy you, Mr. President." "Keep writing poetry!" - appreciated the head of state. "There is nothing more interesting than doing art with love," he praised the family's many talents.
The New Year's wish of a family from Ingushetia came true yesterday. The little twins wrote to Santa Claus - they would like to shake hands with the president. It came true. "Now let's do it," he responded to the request of the boys. But another child was not so lucky: he dreamed so much that his family would win the competition, he wanted to see the head of state so much that, having learned that everyone was going to the Kremlin, he fell ill from excitement and stayed at home with a high fever. The President wished him well.
The demographic situation in Russia is getting worse again
"Today, mainly due to objective reasons, the demographic situation in Russia is again aggravated," Putin said at a meeting of the Coordinating Council for the implementation of a national strategy in the interests of children.
"This trend was predictable, associated with the consequences of previous, overlapping deep demographic declines. I mean the decline during the Great Patriotic War (1943-1944) and about the same decline in the mid-1990s due to huge problems that have arisen in the economy, and, in fact, the collapse in the social sphere," the president stressed.
The authorities will take measures to prevent a decline in the population
"We need to take a set of measures that will stabilize and prevent a decrease in the population of Russia in the coming decade. This requires active and consistent work in all areas: both to reduce mortality and to stimulate the birth rate. In fact, we need to restart our demographic development policy" - said the head of state.
With regard to the birth rate, support for large families, families with modest incomes, and the creation of additional incentives for the birth of a second and third child come to the fore.
“It is also necessary to pay special attention to young families. These are, as a rule, families with low incomes. These are young people who are either still studying or have just entered the labor force, and incomes are very modest, as a rule. And this often holds back the birth of the first child, the appearance of the first child," Putin said.
The maternity capital program will be extended until 2022.
“I propose to extend the maternity capital program until December 31, 2021. In addition, introduce additional opportunities for its use,” the president stressed.
Maternity capital funds should be allowed to be received in the form of monthly payments to those families that are in particular need. "The same targeted approach will apply here as with payments for the first child. That is, payments will be determined in the amount of the subsistence minimum for a child in the region. And for families with incomes that do not exceed one and a half times the subsistence level of the able-bodied population," Putin said. .
Maternity capital will also be allowed to be used to pay for preschool education services, to care for and look after a child from the age of two months. "I know that the demand for this measure is very high, in particular, after the birth of a child, a mother will be able to continue work or education," the president said.
Russia will introduce monthly payment at the birth of the first child
“To support the birth rate, I propose starting from January of the upcoming 2018 to begin implementing a number of new measures to support Russian families. To establish a monthly cash payment which will be provided at the birth of the first child and paid until they reach one and a half years," Putin said.
The amount of payments will be determined based on the subsistence level of the child, established in the subject of the Federation. "On average, it will amount to 10,523 rubles in 2018, 10,836 rubles in 2019, and 11,143 rubles in 2020. At the same time, the payment will be targeted," the head of state stressed.
Family income must be taken into account. “And I think it’s fair: first of all, to support those who really need it,” Putin explained and added that the amount of payments “will be determined in the amount of the subsistence minimum for children established in the subject of the Federation for the II quarter of the previous year of applying for this payment ".
Payments under the program aimed at supporting families with the birth of their first child will amount to 144.5 billion rubles. for three years.
Families with a second and third child will receive mortgage benefits
"I propose to launch a special program mortgage lending. Families in which a second or third child is born from January 1, 2018 will be able to take advantage of its opportunities. Buying housing in the primary market or refinancing previously received mortgage loans families will be able to count on government subsidies of interest rates in excess of 6% per annum," Putin said.
According to the Central Bank, average rate mortgage is 10.5%. If a family with a second or third child takes at this rate, then the state will help with the payment of 4.5%, and the family will be left with 6%. "That is, in this case, the state assumes more than 4% of the cost of the loan. According to the Ministry of Construction, in the next five years, this program can cover over 500,000 families," Putin explained.
The authorities will repair the old and build new children's clinics
"The government, together with the regions, needs to quickly work out a detailed schedule for the reconstruction and overhaul children's polyclinics, including polyclinic departments of hospitals," the president said. The government should approve the conditions for co-financing hospitals and the rules for selecting polyclinics. "Do this taking into account the readiness of design estimates and, above all, the severity of the problem," the head of state noted and added, that such a measure would improve medical care for children.
The authorities will eliminate queues in nurseries and kindergartens
Putin set the task of eliminating queues in the nursery. "We have practically solved the problem with places in kindergartens. Now we need to eliminate the queues in nurseries for children from two months to three years old. And this must be done as quickly as possible. Now applications have been received from parents of more than 326 thousand children. The same number of nursery places planned to be created in the next two years," the president said.