What will be the euro in December. Course for the New Year
10.01.19 Taking into account December last year, we can safely say that the euro still has room to grow.
However, we see that the monetary policy of the ECB has not changed since the 2008 crisis and maintains a low interest rate, as it continues to issue the European currency, of course in a digital version, with the subsequent redemption of bonds of commercial banks. Which proved to be ineffective in the last year, when 2.6 billion euros were injected into the economy. However, at the same time, the economy of the euro zone grew by only 0.2% and this is the lowest result in the last 4 years.
The ruble is under pressure from both the sanctions policy and, traditionally, the price of oil. There is also the issue of Nord Stream 2. Continued construction will strengthen the ruble's position against the euro.
Automatic forecasting based on statistics on the dynamics of the euro:
The ruble dynamics mainly plays a role in the course, it is more volatile than the euro and is subject to serious jumps, so it is important to take into account here.
- - discussion.
- Additionally:,.
- Important:
2018
01.09.18 By the middle of autumn, the euro may cross the line of 81 rubles. Sanctions - both in Britain and in the US elections.
10.04.18 Before the alleged American aggression in Syria, the euro is growing (the ruble is weakening). 78-80 rubles is an achievable bar. However, the pressure on Russia will naturally affect the rest of Europe as well.
11.01.18 European "nobility" reached out to China. An injection for the United States, an attempt to find a patron or a way to flatter in order to delay the arrival of the Silk Road? There can be many goals.
However, the past year has shown great disunity within the EU and an already ripe protest against the center. The aspirations of Poland and Hungary to develop are contrary to the aspirations of Germany. There is an increasing need for closer cooperation with Russia and the search for an internal consensus.
Bullying with LNG from the United States disrupts the plans of Russophobes, and Nord Stream 2 is a necessity.
How will it affect the Euro. Obviously, in order to stabilize, the exchange rate will have to be sacrificed and parity with the dollar will not be achieved. However, this has already ceased to be a goal.
Europe has an opportunity to balance and if the conflict in Ukraine is pacified and return to the old relations with Russia, it will be difficult to shake the euro.
Basically, everything will depend on the ruble. And here, many fear that the weakening of the Russian currency will pull down the Euro as well. In the end, as some analysts believe, the question of becoming a servant of the United States or gaining greater independence with Russia is becoming more and more important for Europe.
The rate will range from 67 to 69 rubles per euro. Of course, there will be growth in the event of strengthening sanctions against Russia, but not as significant as in the ruble-dollar pair, since European countries and Ukraine also suffer from sanctions against Russia, where in this case the conflict may worsen.
2017
19.07.2017 The summit showed that Merkel and Macron are skeptical about Russia, despite the obvious demand in European society for friendship and the lifting of sanctions. The situation with migrants, sanctions, Brexit, internal contradictions put pressure on the Euro, but the ruble is also weakening from the same sanctions and external pressure. 72 rubles per Euro.
26.04.17 The elections in France, if won, will give the European currency a strong credit of confidence, this can raise the exchange rate to 71 rubles. However, the current trends (only in technical terms) show the possibility of a further decline in the euro to 68.5 rubles.
12.12.2016 After the US elections, the European currency accelerated its pace towards parity with the dollar. And the ECB's actions on this path help her: the asset purchase program has been extended until December 17, the total volume of purchases has been increased. Moreover, the ECB claims that, if necessary, there will be no problems with the increase in stimulation.
The euro is unlikely to reach parity, but further decline is expected. Taking into account the growing oil and the opposite tendencies in the Russian currency, we forecast a decrease in the ruble / euro exchange rate to 66 rubles / euro.
12.12.2016 In 2016, it began to gain momentum in Europe, and in 2017, the trends will only intensify. Negative political news from Europe will be enough to push the euro down.
The decisive factor will be the French elections, where the popularity of right-wing candidates is growing. And if Le Pen's victory is unlikely, then Fillon may well become president. Fillon's election will be a positive signal for Russia as well, which has enough growth markers for 2017. In light of the above, we should expect the ruble to euro exchange rate in the range of 65-67 rubles / euro.
2016
Analysts divided into several camps regarding the value of the European currency for Russians:
- Optimists - 60-65 rubles: government economists and some foreign analysts.
- Realists - 80-90 rubles: most of the Western experts.
- Pessimists - 100-150 rubles: independent experts, who are extremely worried about the high consumption of the Central Bank's cash reserves.
- First, to achieve the growth of internal gross product taking on the reform of the economy.
- Secondly, to resolve the conflict situation in Ukraine in a civilized and diplomatic manner, receiving in return the lifting of heavy and unprofitable sanctions.
Another extremely important factor that affects the ruble is the international currency - oil. The rise in oil prices would have calmed and would have significantly strengthened the country's economy.
If everything goes as the “optimists” predict, it will not be good right away: the first quarter of 2016 will be quite difficult, the price of the European currency may reach 95 rubles, but with time will fall to an acceptable mark.
24.12.2015 The Eurozone economy is gradually emerging from the crisis, but the Europeans have a number of "weak" countries that offset many of Germany's stabilization efforts. The breakdown in relations with Russia affects not only business, but also affects the exchange rate of the single currency. Moreover, the loss Russian market, as well as Russian raw materials, is disastrous for a number of industries in many countries of the Eurozone. The average euro exchange rate is predicted for 2015 - at 66 rubles.
Opinion polls have once again shown that Russians are afraid of the weakening of the ruble. According to VTsIOM, in the next three months they expect the dollar to strengthen up to 63 rubles, and on the horizon of the year - up to 64 rubles. This is 6.5% and 8% higher than current levels, respectively.
All the time, while the dollar was trading below 59 rubles (value at the beginning of November), the expectations of the population remained in the range of 63-65 rubles. But if earlier the fears of citizens about the weakening of the ruble were not justified, now we can talk about increased risks.
This is confirmed by the very dynamics of the ruble in recent times... Despite the fact that over the previous four weeks, Brent crude rose in price by more than 11%, the dollar appreciated by 3.5% against the ruble.
The main risks
There are several factors that put pressure on the domestic currency.
First, in last months of the year Russian companies large payments for external debt ... Payouts peak in December. This month, corporations are to repay loans for about $ 15 billion. Of this, according to the Central Bank, about 26% falls on intra-group payments, which are usually prolonged. As a result, the volume of payments may exceed $ 11 billion.
At the same time, a total of about $ 23.5 billion will be paid in the fourth quarter (excluding intra-group payments) - this is significantly more than in the second and third quarters, when the companies paid off debts of $ 15.3 billion and $ 8.5 billion, respectively.
It is clear that corporations need to find a currency somewhere to pay off their debts. For exporters, its source can be a decrease in the volume of sales of foreign exchange earnings, and for companies focused on the domestic market, it can be a massive purchase of foreign exchange.
Secondly, in November, the Ministry of Finance seriously increased purchases of foreign currency. in pursuance budget rule, which assumes the conversion of budget surplus from the oil and gas sector when oil prices are above $ 40. If in October the finance department spent 79 billion rubles for these purposes, then this month due to a significant increase in oil prices the volume of purchases will exceed 120 billion rubles.
Taking into account the current dynamics of the energy market and the possibility of its consolidation in November at the current values, the volume of purchases in December may grow to 130-135 billion rubles.
In addition, the profitability of carry trade operations is gradually falling.... Due to the decline key rate The Central Bank is reducing the yield of Russian OFZs and, as a result, profits foreign investors... At the same time, the risks of investing in Russian ruble assets are still quite high.
From the point of view of non-residents, the proposed rate of return is already close to that which corresponds to these risks. As a result, they either reduce the volume of investments in Russian securities, or fix profits on existing positions and withdraw funds.
This situation also plays against the ruble, especially given the possibility of a rate cut by the Russian regulator at its December meeting. An additional negative is associated with the expected increase in the FRS rate, as this step will increase the cost of funding for carry trade operations. To this we can add a general decline in investor interest in investing in assets in emerging markets.
We must not forget about geopolitical risks.... Debt market players fear tougher US sanctions against Russia. The new package of restrictive measures could affect investments in Russian bonds and lead to a significant outflow of foreign investors' funds from OFZs.
Considering that, according to the Central Bank, about 30% of OFZs are now owned by foreigners, the introduction of a ban on their purchase could have an extremely negative effect on both the ruble debt market and the Russian currency. The withdrawal of foreign investors' funds from OFZs will lead to a sharp increase in demand for dollars and euros, and hence to a powerful one-time ruble weakening.
Oil support
However, the dynamics of oil prices not only testifies to the stable dynamics of the ruble, but also speaks of the possibility of its strengthening in relation to the main world currencies. The energy market has been able to reach new highs in recent weeks. Brent futures at the moment rose in price to $ 64.5 per barrel - this is the maximum since June 2015.
Several factors contributed to the rise in prices for black gold. Among them, the strengthening of market expectations regarding the extension of the agreement concluded under OPEC + until the end of 2018, which will hold back supply for a long time and contribute to the reduction of world reserves. At the same time, the level of implementation of these agreements by all its participants, according to the OPEC monitoring committee, reached record levels in September.
Another positive factor for oil was the increase in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which carries risks for supplies from the region. The players also respond positively to the ongoing reduction in US hydrocarbon reserves.
However, these reserves will begin to grow in the near future under the influence of seasonal factors. In addition, high oil prices will boost US production. As a result, one can expect that if oil quotes do not grow, then they may at least turn into consolidation around $ 60 per barrel. It should also be borne in mind that due to the weakening of the correlation between the ruble exchange rate and the dynamics of prices for black gold, the ruble price of oil has significantly increased. Thus, the Brent blend has risen in price above 3,700 rubles per barrel - this is the maximum in several years.
The price range of 3000–3300 rubles looks more reasonable. per barrel, and this indicates the weakness of the Russian currency and the possibility of its strengthening even at the current levels of oil prices.
What will the course be by the end of the year
With all that has been said, the dollar exchange rate will most likely not be able to go above 62 rubles, even in the event of a noticeable drop in oil prices. The current price levels are unlikely to allow the bulls to accelerate growth American currency: an additional inflow of foreign exchange earnings from exporters will contribute to an increase in the supply of foreign exchange on the market. Thus, one should not expect the ruble to collapse. Moreover, there is still room for strengthening it.
If there are no applications for new sanctions or there are no restrictions on investments in Russian government securities in the new package, this may lead to an inflow of funds in carry trade operations, which will also increase the supply of foreign currency and, as a result, put pressure on the dollar quotes.
If we rely on the ruble price of oil in the region of 3000-3300, then while maintaining current situation on the energy market, the dollar exchange rate may retreat to the region of 55 rubles, which is unlikely, but quite achievable in the event of an improvement in external factors.
As a result, we get a fairly wide corridor of 55–62 rubles per unit of the American currency, in which the dollar exchange rate can be expected on the horizon from three to six months. Most likely, under the circumstances, there is little sense in accumulating currency. In addition, there may be an opportunity to buy the dollar cheaper than the current values.
Many people take an interest in current rate currencies. In fact, in order to properly manage finances, it is necessary to take into account the forecast for the course for 2017. So what could be the euro in December 2017?
The main factors influencing the euro exchange rate
When making a forecast for the euro exchange rate, you need to understand what factors will have a significant impact.
It is customary to use the euro in international settlements, and therefore many participants economic system strive to closely monitor the forecasts of experts. At the same time, it is important to understand that forecasts depend not only on economic, but also on political factors.
The main economic factor turns out to be the cost of energy carriers established at the international level. Currently, the volume of this production is decreasing. People are forced to consume less Natural resources as well as oil. Moreover, oil lost about 40% in its price equivalent.
Outflow of foreign capital from Russian economy also has a significant impact. This situation was caused by the sanctions imposed by the European Union. Many experts are confident that in 2017 Russia must definitely return its lost positions to international market coming out of the recession. In addition, specialized agencies are lowering their investment volume, taking into account the current situation and existing forecasts, based on the decrease in oil prices.
If Russia continues the same foreign policy, there is a risk of additional sanctions. In addition, Russia can continue to participate in the military conflict in Ukraine. These reasons can lead to the lack of stability of the euro.
Analyzing the above factors, one can predict the inflation rate, which will be 12.5% - 17%.
What the Central Bank of the Russian Federation notes
Based on preliminary forecasts, average cost euro can be around 100 rubles. At the same time, there is still the possibility of changing this figure. The fact is that Central bank which is the main monetary regulator Russian Federation, can influence the dynamics of the picture and the course Russian ruble.
The refinancing rate was initially increased to 17%, but now this indicator managed to reduce to 12.5%. Thus, the exact data will only be known over time, because certain aspects of the situation may still change.
Remember that the lack of stability in the economy and politics can lead to an increase in inflation, after which the savings of Russians are depreciated.
The situation may change under the influence of the introduction or absence of new sanctions, changes in oil prices.
The Russian ruble will still have to go through many trials and checks, to withstand difficult situations.
What are the prospects for the euro and the ruble in 2017
Oil prices are gradually approaching $ 30 per barrel, and this is reflected in Russian currency... So, what is the reason for the instability of the situation not only with the ruble, dollar, but also the euro? What prospects can be noted?
- Oil may continue to fall in price.
- The sanctions will continue to operate.
- The Ukrainian crisis may have an impact on Russia.
- To conduct a military operation in Syria, additional financial investments... This may be due to the fact that Russia plans to expand its presence in Syria.
Lower raw material prices could negatively affect the Russian budget, which largely depends on the export of energy resources. The smooth devaluation of the Russian ruble may turn out to be one of the most important factors.
It is important to note that the cost of the euro can range from 65 to 70 rubles (optimistic), 80 rubles (moderate), 150 rubles (negative). External factors will have a significant impact on the euro exchange rate in December 2017, and economic and geopolitical factors will be important. In case of a favorable development of the event, the value of the euro may gradually decrease, and in a negative scenario, devaluation may occur.
V mandatory you need to closely monitor the euro exchange rate in order to timely find out possible changes in the opinion of experts, because only in this case it is possible to operate correctly with finances.
Despite all the efforts of the government, the country's economy did not recover from economic crisis, no one canceled the sanctions and foreign exchange market disturbances occur. In view of this, more and more citizens are interested in the forecast of the euro exchange rate for November, because the European currency is more stable than its American counterpart. Let's analyze whether it is worth trusting the euro and what to expect in the coming months and what the latest forecast for the euro exchange rate for 2017 waiting for us.
Before predicting the course currency pair euro dollar let's look at the factors affecting its stability, because the euro has long become an alternative to the dollar. Therefore, it should be borne in mind that the instability of the dollar directly affects the euro exchange rate and vice versa, because these 2 currencies are closely interconnected, euro exchange rate forecast is closely related to others because this currency is still world and therefore its rate also directly depends on the events that occur in the territory where it is used to calculate monetary transactions.
The restrictions imposed by the West and the cost of oil cannot be discarded, although these indicators do not directly affect the value of the euro, but they are closely related to the budget of the Russian Federation and, consequently, the ruble. As you may have guessed, until the oil price stabilizes, starts to rise in price and at least some of the Western sanctions are lifted, the exchange rate will remain vulnerable and uncertain, there is no need to wait for stability.
The opinion of the authorities
Today, few people, except for the power of existence, can give a consoling forecast of the euro exchange rate in November 2017. So the promise that the euro will cost 40-45 rubles did not justify itself, although 7 years ago such a rate would have been very useful. By the end of the year, even the authorities are already saying that they will have to pay about 90-95 rubles for one euro and maybe even more.
As stated above, euro exchange rate forecast depends on the political situation in the world and the course will directly depend on how much and when the UK is ready to secede from the European Union. Recall that more than 51% of the British supported this event in the country. Few people undertake to predict the outcome of this decision, although so far everything will be done “peacefully”, without shocks, but at any moment due to unexpected and drastic decisions of Great Britain the euro can collapse and “pull down” the dollar.
Latest news on the foreign exchange market
The Ministry of Economic Development is optimistic, although in the current situation it is difficult to plan anything. Thus, some analysts state that pair EUR / RUB will return to around 70 rubles per unit. This is unlikely, because the euro has not given prerequisites for strengthening over the past few months. So, the approximate euro exchange rate for November, according to the estimates of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, may be:
- 68 rubles at the minimum mark;
- 68-69 rubles per unit with an average value;
- 69-71 rubles per 1 euro as the maximum value.
After a three-day break, we should expect the euro to strengthen against the ruble. It is also worth noting that ruble against euro should still stabilize. This will give a little peace of mind in the foreign exchange market, because the euro strictly follows the dollar. Nevertheless, experts from the Apekon Agency are planning a certain strengthening of the ruble and an approximate euro exchange rate forecast until November 10th may be:
- from November 15, the euro will strengthen significantly;
- from the middle, November 19, keep the same course;
- some shocks should be expected on November 20, when the ruble will fall in price by a few kopecks and the approximate rate will be 70.60 rubles per euro.
As you can see, the euro / ruble rate has somewhat stabilized even in comparison with the previous months.
What other factors could affect the volatility of the euro in November 2017?
Additional factors of unstable the forecast of the euro exchange rate in November 2017, influence on a complex economic situation in the country can perform:
- new concluded foreign economic contracts and the successful implementation of old ones, the settlements of which are carried out in euros. A successful foreign trade policy is successfully strengthening the ruble against other currencies.
- trust among citizens to the ruble. If suddenly the jumps in the dollar / euro currency pair begin, then citizens in a panic will run to surrender foreign currency, or vice versa, large business will begin to actively buy out foreign currency, incl. and euros. Then the central bank will have to resort to harsh and unpopular measures. Tough regulatory measures taken by the government to stabilize euro exchange rate forecast may not work, as the black currency market has become popular for a long time.
- currency speculation. There is a big gap in our economic defenses. The Central Bank does not monitor currency speculation by market participants. Although, in the international arena, there are few people who are punished for such actions, few can name who for last years sanctions were applied for currency speculation.
- all sorts of force majeure circumstances. No one is protected from shocks, be it a large-scale spontaneous action, military action or terrorist attacks. This all undoubtedly affects euro exchange rate forecast.
- the downward trend in demand for risky assets of the Russian Federation may significantly increase the dollar rate to 70 rubles, while the Central Bank plans to cut rates.
Usually December is not an easy month for the ruble. For example, in December 2015, one dollar was given 70.2 rubles (in November - 64.9), and for a euro - 75 rubles (a month earlier - 69 rubles). Basically, the ruble is depreciating, because at the end of the year, the demand for currency from companies with debts in dollars and euros increases. Should we prepare for another wave of devaluation in December? AiF.ru asked this question to financial analysts.
Don't get rid of oil
Roman Blinov, expert of the company "International Finance center» : “This December, one of the main factors influencing the ruble exchange rate will be the situation on the commodity market. The data on oil production in the OPEC + countries may seriously affect the price of a barrel. What will happen to the prices of “black gold”, will happen to the ruble: oil will fall in price, the ruble will fall, and vice versa - oil will rise in price, the ruble will strengthen.
Following this factor, I would highlight the risk of increased sanctions against Russia - they can become a catalyst for a change in the interest of Western investors in financial instruments denominated in rubles. It is about bonds federal loan(OFZ). However, so far there are no preconditions for a radical reversal on this front.
Until mid-December, or rather before the meeting of the US Federal Reserve and the meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, at which the heads of the American and Russian regulators will announce decisions on the further fate of the countries' monetary policies, global investors will refrain from sudden movements, and this will have a stabilizing effect on the Russian ruble in the short term. ...
But if market and political turbulence prevails in the United States, then we may be shaken in the second half of December.
So far, we see no global reason for a significant devaluation, or a strengthening of the national currency. But as we know, the world financial market- the substance is extremely changeable. Taking into account the fact that we are entering the period of the pre-election race in the country, then against the background of political debates in the country stability will be at the forefront in the foreign exchange market, most likely, too ”.
Relatively calm December
Ivan Kopeikin, expert of BCS financial group: “There is a high probability of consolidation of the dollar / ruble pair in December in the range of 57.6-59.7. Of the positive factors that can strengthen national currency, I would highlight the high interest rates(inflation continues to decline at a faster pace than rates). Plus, now the ruble is somewhat oversold relative to oil, the oil trend remains strong. The next meeting of the American Federal Reserve will most likely not exert strong pressure on the ruble, since the expectations of investors have already included an increase in rates.
As for the challenges to the stability of the ruble, of course, these are large payments on external borrowings. In December-January, our companies must pay off more than $ 30 billion on debts.
Local negative can come from the rate cut by the Bank of Russia at the next meeting on December 15 by more than 0.25%.
The most likely price at the end of the year is 58.8-59.5 rubles per dollar and 70.5-72 rubles per euro.
Focus on the Fed and the CBR
Sergey Zvenigorodsky, director of network development management company"SOLID Management": “The dynamics of the ruble in December, in addition to the traditional oil factor, will be influenced by the policy of the US FRS. The market expects the next round of rate hikes since September. The likelihood of another round of tightening monetary policy during the December meeting, market participants estimate above 93%. This confidence is confirmed in particular by the statements of Powell, who is preparing to replace Mrs. Yellen as head of the Federal Reserve, from which it follows that there is all the necessary favorable conditions... Nevertheless, this decision is already largely incorporated into the current exchange rate of the American, including against the ruble, a strong jump in the dollar is unlikely.
Finally, provided there is a positive energy market and a comfortable inflation rate close to 3%, decisions can also be expected from the Russian regulator. The likelihood that the Central Bank will once again cut the key rate by 25-50 basis points remains quite high. The rate cut is also expected, most likely in New Year we will enter with a rate of 8%. But again, this step is quite expected and incorporated into the current ruble exchange rate, so I do not expect serious fluctuations.
Considering the above, we can say that the ruble exchange rate in December will not undergo significant long-term changes: 58.5-60 against the dollar and 68.5-69 against the euro.
December is not for currency investments
Artem Deev, Lead Analyst financial company Amarkets:“The Russian currency in December will be, if not stable, then sharp fluctuations definitely not foreseen. Negative factors will shift the ruble and make it fluctuate around 60 rubles per dollar.
And the factors are as follows: the notorious sanctions, which are added every year, are likely to be introduced in 2018, and in anticipation of this, the ruble has little chance of strengthening. The increase in demand for foreign payments for external payments, as well as the decrease in the key rate on December 15, also do not give the ruble confidence.
Against this background, buying a currency for a successful resale is not worth it, you cannot earn much on this, on the contrary, there is every chance of losing it if you do not sell it in time ”.