What does the devaluation of the ruble in a year mean. Will the government go to the collapse of the ruble
The problem of the fall of the ruble is the most discussed topic of the past year. Gradually decreasing in price, in the winter of 2018-2019. Russian currency reached a critical minimum. Experts attribute this situation to cheaper oil, the pressure of sanctions from Western countries, and the continuation of the conflict in Ukraine.
What happened to the ruble in 2019, and how can this change the lives of Russian citizens?
Read objective forecasts and expert opinions in this article.
Recent events in the foreign exchange market and the future of the ruble
The final months of 2015 were dark sharp drop exchange rate of the Russian currency. 70 rubles seemed to be the maximum possible price of a dollar. Citizens expected that from January a gradual normalization of the situation on foreign exchange market, but the devaluation continued against the backdrop of a decrease in oil prices.
When the price of a barrel of Brent oil fell below $30, very controversial opinions began to appear regarding the ruble exchange rate:
- Some analysts said that this means the collapse of the Russian currency and the fall of the economy based on the trade in hydrocarbons into a protracted crisis.
- Proponents of the opposite position we saw positive aspects in this: the national economy of Russia, absorbed by stagnation, will more quickly look for a way out of the situation, which lies in the development of production sectors.
One way or another, the devaluation of the ruble continues to be relevant, and its negative impact on the economy is quite obvious. The budget deficit, the closure of enterprises, inflation, the decline in the welfare of citizens.
It is rather difficult to predetermine the future of the Russian currency in such a situation - released into free float, it is dependent on, which is tied to oil.
In this regard, regarding the forecasts of changes in the exchange rate of the Russian currency, we can talk about the formation of two points of view:
- In 2016, the price of the dollar will fluctuate between 75-80 rubles , since this is an objectively justified rate with the official inflation rate of 6.5-7%. If this indicator is exceeded, the Bank of Russia will resort to interventions.
- This year, the dollar will drop to 67-68, and by the beginning of 2017 to 65 rubles . The reasons for this trend will be the growth of oil prices, the gradual lifting of sanctions and the slow activation of manufacturing industries.
Some Western experts point out that the devaluation of the ruble will lead to a huge budget deficit . To prevent it, the fair exchange rate of the dollar should be 210 rubles.
Initially, the Russian budget was based on an oil price of $50 per barrel. However, at the beginning of the year, it was revised to a $25 value. At the same time, neither the Ministry of Economic Development nor the Central Bank of the Russian Federation promise any global fall of the ruble.
Should the Russians start preparing for the worst?
Such a statement is somewhat biased. One should not prepare for the worst - the ruble has already reached its lowest possible level and the Bank of Russia simply will not allow it to fall further. Nevertheless, it is not desirable to expect a bright future from an economy that is in a state of stagnation.
It is worth highlighting several key trends that will affect Russians amid the depreciation of the ruble in 2016:
1. Prices for goods - the most painful issue . According to forecasts, a significant increase in the cost of goods is not expected. Inflation is set at 6.4% (with a pessimistic scenario of 7%). control speculation on commodity market will antimonopoly service. Only equipment, most of which is imported and traded in dollars, will significantly increase in price.
2. Utility tariffs - differentiated approach . The concerns of Russians about rising prices for water, electricity and gas are not justified. The rise in price will be associated only with indexation and will range from 3 to 6.5%, depending on the region (the maximum percentage is provided for in Moscow and St. Petersburg). Electricity tariffs are planned to be distributed on a progressive scale: the greater the consumption, the higher the cost.
3. Social payments– indexation in conditions of deficit . deficit Russian budget in 2016 is inevitable. However, even under these conditions, a decision was made to increase pensions, allowances, scholarships for students by 4%. Maternal capital will remain unchanged.
4. Mortgage Loans - Unfounded Concerns . In March .
Citizens' fears that banks will immediately raise interest rates to unattainable levels are groundless:
- First of all , excessive high interest inaccessible to banks due to significant competition in this segment.
- Secondly , a slight increase in the cost of mortgages (up to 14-15%) will lead to a drop in demand for housing, which in turn will significantly reduce the price square meter area.
The general conclusion on the state of the Russian economy is as follows - deepening of the crisis is not expected , although unemployment and prices are expected to rise. Stagnation will remain within the former boundaries. By the end of the year, some recovery is expected against the backdrop of the development of import-substituting industries. If the sanctions are lifted, stabilization will begin a little earlier.
What do the experts say?
Bogdan Zvarich, analyst at FINAM:
“The first half of the year promises to be extremely difficult. The dollar during this period may gain a foothold in the position of 80-85 rubles due to low oil prices. However, in the middle of 2016, the situation on the hydrocarbon market is expected to improve and the cost of oil will increase. By the end of the year, the dollar will return to the position of 60 rubles, inflation will be 7%, and GDP growth will be 0.2-0.5%.
Dmitry Kipa, Head of Analytics at QB Finance:
“The situation of low oil prices, which provokes the devaluation of the ruble, will not last forever. Selected countries OPEC will not be able to withstand the conditions of production at a price below cost, and they will begin to raise rates, saving their budgets. In this situation, the maximum value of the dollar will be 80 rubles, and inflation will be 15-17%.
Dmitry Zhuravlev, Director of the Institute regional problems:
“Macroeconomic indicators will increase in 2016, while the living standards of citizens will decrease. But, neither one nor the other will be distinguished by high rates. The price of oil will remain low, not helping to improve the situation. This requires real diversification of the economy.”
A significant fall of the ruble in 2016 is not expected, but the national economy will continue to remain in a state of deep stagnation, which will negatively affect the incomes of citizens and their well-being. However, experts predict the peak of the crisis in the first half of the year, and from the summer the situation will begin to change for the better. .
Many Russians are worried about what will happen to the ruble in 2019. Expert opinions differ and citizens can only guess how the changes will affect their lives. Two more burning and actively discussed issues are the possibility of devaluation and denomination of the ruble in 2019. And if doubts arise on the first point, then concerns about the second can be attributed to far-fetched and lacking practical justification. We will cover these topics in more detail in the article.
Article outline:
- general information
Russian experts on the ruble in 2019.
- Foreign experts about the ruble exchange rate 2019.
- Is it possible to denominate the ruble in 2019?
What determines the exchange rate of the ruble?
general information
At the end of 2014, unexpectedly for many Russians, the ruble depreciated. From September 2014 to January 2015, the exchange rate increased from 37.99 rubles. up to 66.10. Then it gradually fell and in May 2015, 1 dollar became equal to 50.08 rubles. In May 2014, this figure was 34.71 rubles. At the end of January 2016, Russians gave about 80 rubles for 1 dollar. Only the lazy do not make predictions about this. differ from each other exactly the opposite, and the Russians can only wait and hope that the prices of goods and services will not creep up too rapidly.
At present, the dynamics of the ruble is influenced by many external factors:
- The level of world oil prices.
- US and Western European sanctions.
- The situation in the eastern part of Ukraine.
- The situation in Syria.
Russian experts about the ruble in 2019
Many experts undertake to predict the growth or fall of the Russian currency, but their conclusions most often relate to short-term periods. It is impossible to say for certain what will happen to the ruble throughout 2019.
We encourage you to read opinions Russian experts against the value of the ruble in 2019.
Former Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin predicts a collapse national economy, an even greater decline in the value of the ruble, as a result of which the purchasing power of the country's population will significantly decrease. Economist Vladimir Tikhomirov agrees with Kudrin's opinion and believes that the short-term stability of the ruble exchange rate will not save the national currency from the collapse anyway.
Supervisor management company Finam Management Nikolai Solabuto, along with many Russian analysts, is of the opinion that the dollar will soon reach 200 rubles per unit and, consequently, the value of the ruble will fall sharply. will happen this situation as a result of a regular decline in oil prices over several months.
According to the preliminary forecast announced by the Head of the Ministry economic development Russian Federation Alexey Ulyukaev, the dollar exchange rate in the current year will be equal to 63.5 rubles.
Many experts suggest that in 2016 oil prices will rise and the exchange rate of the national currency will gradually reach the level of 2013, when the cost of 1 dollar was equal to 30-32 rubles.
Foreign experts about the ruble exchange rate 2019
The opinions of foreign experts regarding the Russian currency are less diverse than the options of domestic analysts.
International rating agency Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) believe that the economic situation in our country is gradually stabilizing as a result of rising oil prices (up to $57 per barrel). This will entail the strengthening of the ruble and the establishment of the cost of one unit American currency at the level of 50-53 rubles.
Bank of America experts believe that the price of $ 1 will be equal to 60-61 rubles. Specialists of the Apecon economic forecasting agency voiced the minimum value of the dollar at the level of 65-66 rubles. Citigroup experts said that the dollar will rise to at least 70 rubles this year.
According to the results of analytical studies European Bank reconstruction and development, infusion of foreign capital into Russian economy reduced by at least 10% compared to the previous year.
Reasons for this fact:
- Increase in the number of loans received by national banks.
- Volume reduction Money provided by foreign partners.
Is the ruble devaluation expected in 2019?
The initial forecasts of the World Bank were that in 2019 GDP would grow by 0.1%. Currently, the Russian economy is expected to deteriorate and GDP to fall by 0.3%.
Despite the abundance of reasons resulting in the depreciation of the Russian currency, one of the leading ones can be called the complication of the geopolitical situation at the international level and the imposition of economic sanctions on the Russian Federation. Western states have lowered the price of oil and this has led to the fall of the ruble.
Chairman Central Bank Russian Federation, Elvira Nabiullina, suggested that the inflation rate would reach 6%. The decline will occur as a result of the implementation of the import substitution policy.
The head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation notes that the fall of the ruble depends on external factors, which include:
- Changes in the rates of the Federal Reserve System (FRS).
- Chinese economic slowdown.
- Trends in the oil market.
According to the first deputy chairman of the Central Bank of Russia, Sergei Shvetsov, a decrease in the dollar exchange rate is possible after the FRS rate increases.
Analysts of the international rating agency Moody's believe that the slowdown in the growth of domestic gross product China will hold back the prices of metals and oil. And in these conditions, the ruble will continue to depreciate. One of the key factors for the Russian currency is .
There is a possibility of a market collapse and subsequent devaluation of the ruble. The Ministry of Finance assumes the reduction of quotations of "black gold" to $20 per barrel for a short period. This situation will affect financial condition oil companies and will entail a reduction in the supply of raw materials. The result will be an increase in oil prices.
The possibility of devaluation of the Russian currency will depend on the pace of economic recovery in the country.
The negative consequences of the devaluation include the fact that the incomes of citizens of our country will decrease by at least 30%. Inflation will rise in 2019, pushing up prices for consumer goods and services, as well as food.
There are also optimistic implications:
- The import substitution policy contributes to the development and support of domestic producers.
- Increase in export volumes.
- Decrease in expenses of reserve national funds.
In order for these advantages to show themselves in action, there is a constant need to control the process of devaluation of the Russian currency.
Is it possible to denominate the ruble in 2019
Denomination is a procedure for replacing banknotes of a larger denomination with those of a smaller denomination. For example, instead of 500 rubles, you will receive only 5. As a result of a change in the real value of money, you will have to recalculate wages, prices for goods and services, etc. All these actions are necessary to strengthen the monetary unit.
The last time the denomination was made in Russia in 1998. The currency exchange ratio at that time was 1000 to 1.
The denomination covers all spheres of economic life and requires considerable financial costs. At present, the Government is trying to minimize the expenditures of the state budget and allocates funds exclusively for priority areas. And the projected inflation rate for 2016 does not look overly threatening. Therefore, concerns about a possible denomination are slightly exaggerated.
The opinions of experts on this issue coincided. Almost all of them believe that the denomination of the ruble would entail extremely Negative consequences. “First of all, the credibility of national currency and citizens will begin to transfer savings into foreign money,” noted former deputy Minister of Economic Development Mikhail Dmitriev. At the moment, the implementation of the denomination in Russia in 2016 is recognized as inappropriate.
What determines the exchange rate of the ruble?
The exchange rate of the domestic currency depends on many different factors, which can be conditionally divided into positive and negative.
Factors contributing to the strengthening of the ruble exchange rate include:
- Stable political situation in the state.
- Increase in oil prices in the world market.
- The ratio of the population to the national currency.
- The ratio of foreign citizens to the Russian currency.
- Interest of investors in the Russian economy.
- Expansion of production and increase in its volumes.
Let's analyze each of the points in more detail:
Stable political situation in the country
This factor is the basis of Russia's economic development. Therefore, you should not discount it, even though it is not the key to the issue under consideration.
Increase in the cost of oil on the world market
There is a huge amount of oil in the bowels of the Russian land. Part of the wealth is spent on the needs of the country, but a considerable amount is also spent on exports. The more oil Russia exports, the more more money goes to the state budget. It is easy to guess that in the event of a fall in the value of "black wealth", the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar is rapidly falling and, conversely, the higher the price of oil rises, the more the position of the Russian currency will strengthen.
The ratio of the population to the national currency
This factor is considered one of the most important, since if the Russians trust their currency and make deposits in it, this will contribute to an increase in the exchange rate and an increase in lending to the state economy. This is explained by the fact that citizens will spend the earned money not on buying dollars, but on investing in the economy of their country.
The ratio of foreign citizens to the Russian currency
Similar to the previous paragraph, if citizens of other countries confirm their confidence in the Russian currency by investing their funds in the economy of our country, this will help to increase the ruble exchange rate. Unfortunately, this factor does not work 100%, since foreign citizens prefer to keep their savings in the money of their state or in a generally recognized world currency.
Interest of investors in the Russian economy
This factor can have a significant impact on the growth and strengthening of the Russian currency. But in order for investors to be really interested, their investments must result in a good return.
Expansion of production and increase in its volumes
This item works as follows: The production of a greater variety of high-quality goods will allow not only to distribute them within the state, but also to send them for export. As a result of the sale of products to other countries, more foreign currency will flow into the economy of the Russian Federation.
Factors contributing to the depreciation of the ruble include:
- The value of the foreign currency in the market.
- outflow Russian capital to other countries.
- actions of the people of the country.
- Slowdown in GDP growth.
- Decrease in production growth rates.
Let's consider all points:
The value of the foreign currency in the market
This is one of the most important factors, since it is not possible to influence its fall or rise. The strengthening of the dollar against the ruble in 2016 leads to a significant fall in the ruble. The Russian economy practically cannot influence this.
Outflow of national capital to other countries
This factor is essentially a continuation of the previous one. This is explained by the fact that as a result of the strengthening of the foreign currency and the fall of the national, Russian investors prefer to transfer their funds into dollars.
The actions of the population of the country
Many Russians are daily interested in the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate in relation to other currencies, which are the most stable. Citizens want to earn as much profit as possible from their savings. Therefore, they are trying to find the most favorable currency to keep money in it.
The following situation occurs: As a result of some events, the ruble exchange rate is falling, Russians are transferring their savings into another currency, fearing that it will fall even more soon. Such actions lead to a deplorable state of the national currency.
Slowdown in GDP growth
It is observed if domestic goods are produced in small quantities, and the profit from their sale covers only wages workers and inflation. This indicates an excessively small volume of production in Russia and a lack of confidence in domestic goods on the part of the population. Due to the use in the production of outdated equipment used in the last century.
Slowdown in production growth
The population purchases only goods produced in other countries, which use high-quality raw materials and Newest technologies. As a result, the balance of payments of the state decreases and the national currency falls.
Factors influencing the ruble are divided into three categories:
- Short term.
- Medium-term.
- Long-term.
Short term factors
Duration - several days. Short-term factors affect the national currency now. Short-term fluctuations in the rate cause news, the mood of investors and the panic of the population, buying up foreign currency in exchange offices. On such short-term factors, professional players on the stock exchange make money.
Medium term factors
Duration - several weeks or months. Low economic growth of the economy or a fall affects the increase in capital outflow and causes a depreciation of the ruble. The growth of the economy attracts capital to the country, as a result of which the demand for the Russian currency increases and the position of the ruble strengthens. Imports increase the demand for the currency and weaken the ruble. Export contributes to the depreciation of the currency and the strengthening of the ruble.
Long term factors
If the cost of a unit of goods in Russia is less than in other countries, then it is more profitable to buy it here. As a result, commodity prices in Russia will rise, while in another country they will fall. External debts have a negative impact on the ruble exchange rate, as the state and corporations have to buy foreign currency on the market in order to pay off obligations to foreign creditors.
ADDITIONAL RELATED LINKS |
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The official exchange rates of foreign currencies against the ruble are set daily (on business days) by order of the Bank of Russia and take effect on the next calendar day.
When respectable men in suits talk about devaluation and inflation on television, the Russian audience is divided into three main groups. The former begin to panic and chaotically think about where to put their savings, because there was already a savory experience in 1998 and 2008. The second, having no family and gold reserves, believe that they have nothing to lose. A third, very small group believes that the situation is under control of the authorities and is about to improve.
Which of them is closer to the truth?
What is devaluation in simple terms
All states take part in trade operations in the world market. To simplify the system when making transactions, the partners set the standard of a convertible currency, for Russia this standard is the US dollar and the euro.
Previously, before the “gold standard” was abolished, the devaluation of the ruble was considered to be a decrease in the value of the national currency in relation to gold. Now the situation has changed.
Another significant change occurred in the fall of 2014. Until that moment, the value of the ruble was regulated and fixed. Central Bank(Central Bank) of Russia, now the domestic currency is deprived of this support.
Many Russians who are not professionally connected with the economy confuse devaluation with default and denomination.
I must say, these concepts are completely different, so:
- Devaluation today is considered to be a decrease in the value of the ruble against the currencies of other states.
- Denomination is a change in the number of zeros by banknote, which the Russians faced in the nineties of the twentieth century.
- Default is a more critical situation in which the state is unable to fulfill financial obligations including foreign debts.
The reasons for the depreciation of the national currency may be different. These include the weakening of the economy, as a result of natural disasters, sanctions, warfare, that is, an increase in government spending that is no longer covered by income.
There is another situation: the state deliberately lowers the value of its currency, which allows you to get a significant profit from the export of goods. For example, the price of oil in dollars has dropped significantly, but since there are now more rubles in dollars, the change in this price in rubles is not so significant.
Thus, devaluation can be beneficial to the state.
Will there be a devaluation in 2019
Together with the Russians, citizens of other countries are also asking this question, out of sympathy or for a completely opposite reason. So far, no one can give an unequivocal answer with an absolute guarantee, however, the months that have passed since the beginning of the year show actual indicators.
As the graph shows, the exchange rate of the American currency is highly dependent on sanctions coming mainly from the United States. The strongest speculative factor is the buy limit public debt for American companies. In other words, the popular “carry trade” strategy of buying Russian for dollars and getting a decent return by world standards may cease to exist due to legal restrictions. All this encourages foreign investors to sell Russian bonds, buy dollars and withdraw them from our securities market.
Most analysts consider investments in the Russian economy as quite risky investments, which means that the outflow of capital from the country will continue to some extent.
To be or not to be devalued in the current year depends on many factors:
- outflow of capital from the country;
- oil prices;
- the imposition or lifting of sanctions;
- Fed (Federal Reserve) rate adjustments;
- the conduct or cessation of hostilities in Ukraine and the degree of participation in these events of our country.
It is unlikely that anyone will take responsibility for accurately predicting these turnarounds, but if they are not in a positive direction for Russia, it will be impossible to count on stability, and even more so on the appreciation of the ruble.
I must say that devaluation is not a one-day process, which means that it will not be possible to solve the problem in one day. According to experts' forecasts sharp fluctuations this year is not expected, although in the event of new drops in oil prices, the dollar may rise to 100 rubles.
How loans will be issued
According to professionals in the field of economics, this year one more reason for the devaluation will be added: the outdated banking system, which needs to be corrected. One of the main banking matters One of the concerns of the population is the possibility of obtaining loans.
In times of fluctuations in the value of the ruble, the population is afraid to trust their savings to banks, as a result of which money is withdrawn from circulation and the resources that banks can have become noticeably scarce. These events lead to certain changes in the lending system.
Last year was definitely difficult for the Russian economy, which inevitably affected banks and financial institutions. Many of these institutions have not been able to stay afloat during the crisis, and as a result, the number of organizations providing loans will noticeably decrease in 2019.
In this regard, the following changes are expected for borrowers:
- Raise base rates and percent.
- Inclusion of a number of commissions for issuance and service.
- Age category of borrowers (in some organizations, applications from clients will be considered only after they reach the age of twenty-five).
- Voluntary-compulsory insurance of loans.
It should be noted that the demand for loans will also decrease. Not everyone will risk burdening themselves with such obligations in such an unstable period.
With the lifting of Western sanctions, it will be quite possible to count on the loyalty of banks.
Learn about the denomination or devaluation of the ruble from the video.
How to save money during currency fluctuations
In order to preserve savings in the current difficult circumstances, analysts and economists recommend in the shares of companies - export producers, precious metals, real estate and foreign currency.
Many experts consider it promising to spend capital on opening a well-planned and thoughtful business, since the number of competitors in given time will be noticeably reduced.
A detailed study makes it clear that with devaluation, import prices rise, and the demand for domestically produced goods will increase accordingly.
Imported cars, electronics, household appliances will rise significantly in price, so it's time to spend the savings accumulated for these purposes. Only without fanaticism, because many people remember how in 2014 panicked people began to buy useless things in unnecessary quantities, and then did not know how to get rid of them.
Today, “multi-currency” accounts are very popular, the owners of which have the opportunity to transfer their savings from one currency to another, with a favorable exchange rate.
The consequences of the devaluation of the Russian ruble
Probably, everyone is familiar with the situation when you really want something, and a person, succumbing to temptation, makes an unplanned expensive purchase. Then, for a certain time, he has to deny himself something, restoring the family budget.
The same thing happens with state budget in which a gap has formed and it will take time to patch it up.
The devaluation effects could be compared to two sides of a coin if it had different sides.
So the negatives are:
- Increase in prices for goods and services at the same wages.
- Loss of confidence in the weakened ruble.
- Devaluation of bank deposits.
- The increase in inflation.
- Decreased purchasing power
- Unemployment. After all, many enterprises use imported raw materials, equipment, materials, but due to the rise in price they will be forced to reduce or completely stop their activities.
You should also not forget that when a person does not have enough money, he often begins to take bribes and steal. This means that the likelihood of an increase in the level of crime and corruption is high.
And now for the good:
- Stimulation of domestic production and import substitution.
- The development of tourism in Russia, as Holidays abroad will become an expensive pleasure.
- If you refuse to import, more money will remain in the state treasury.
Even a child, counting the points, will notice that the negative consequences prevail.
Possible scenarios and expert forecasts
As for Russian analysts and experts, the forecasts here are very diverse, and mostly short-term. Even the most experienced specialists find it difficult to predict events for the second half of this year and next year.
The head of the Ministry of Economic Development, Alexei Ulyukaev, believes that this year the dollar will be valued at around 63-64 rubles.
Former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin's forecasts are not so optimistic: he predicts a collapse of the Russian economy and a decline in the standard of living of the population. Economists Vladimir Tikhomirov and Nikolai Salabuto agree with him, expecting the dollar to rise in price to two hundred rubles per unit.
The well-known economist Mikhail Khazin predicts the collapse of not only the Russian, but the entire world economy and banking policy.
On one point, the opinions of domestic experts are similar: everything will depend on the price of "black gold", around which the Russian economy is currently revolving.
The depreciation of the ruble is reflected in economic situation our neighbors and partners. In Belarus, the ruble is also devaluing, despite President Lukashenko's assurances that there will be no devaluation in the country this year.
However, experts and analysts have a different opinion. The dependence of Belarus on Russia is obvious, because our country is the main buyer of Belarusian exports, and if their ruble is more stable than ours, trade will simply become unprofitable for Russians, and Belarus risks losing a partner.
In addition, the rise in the dollar exchange rate is dictated by world oil prices, which the government of Belarus is unlikely to be able to influence.
Another factor is the impending denomination Belarusian ruble, and in which direction prices and salaries will be rounded off, the population is not known, which means that people are worried and begin to withdraw money from bank turnover and hide it in stockings. As mentioned above, the withdrawal of money from circulation is one of the causes of devaluation.
All experts are sure that devaluation of Belarus this year cannot be avoided, but sharp fluctuations are not expected. Bankers and financiers fully agree with them.
So what determines the exchange rate of the ruble
The exchange rate of the national currency is influenced by a combination of the following factors:
- Stable political situation in the country, attracting partners and investors.
- Trust in the national currency, both the local population and foreign citizens.
- Development of production, industry and agriculture.
- Oil prices on the world market.
Based on this list, a lot still needs to be done in our country, which means that all Russians will have to work hard.
In contact with
The current stabilization of the foreign exchange market inspires hope for an early recovery of the positions of the Russian currency.
However, oil quotes again rushed down, which raises concerns about the future of the ruble. In addition, the Central Bank is planning a significant emission of money supply, which may affect the dollar. It depends on the influence of these factors whether there will be a devaluation of the ruble in Russia in 2016.
Internal factors
The Central Bank plans to print an additional 1 trillion rubles in December this year. According to the head of the regulator Elvira Nabiullina, this event is associated with the traditional increase in demand for cash at the end of the year. At the same time, the situation on the foreign exchange market will remain unchanged, the head of the Central Bank notes. In addition, it became known about the decision of the Central Bank of the issue of the denomination of the ruble in 2016.
Expert Evgeny Egorov agrees with the position of the Central Bank. In December, the activity of the population increases, which, among other things, is reflected in a greater number of purchases. In its turn banking institutions stock up on cash to fully meet the demand from their customers.
As a result of the issue money supply will remain unchanged, says Raiffeisenbank analyst Denis Poryvai. The Ministry of Finance will be able to withdraw deposits for a similar amount from banking system, as a result, non-cash money will be replaced by cash.
The government plans to finance the budget deficit from Reserve Fund rather than through issuance money. This factor will not lead to the devaluation of the ruble, in contrast to the possible collapse of the oil market.
Another internal factor that could lead to devaluation is the need to balance budget deficit. According to the Ministry of Finance, as a result of the implementation of the negative scenario, the budget may lose up to 1 trillion rubles next year. One of the sources of revenue growth is devaluation, which will lead to an increase in revenues from energy exports.
oil needle
The dynamics of the ruble will largely depend on changes in oil prices.
After a long period of fluctuations around the cost of 50 dollars per barrel, "black gold" rushed down again. In such conditions, it will be difficult for the ruble to hold its positions.
The Ministry of Economic Development expects the average dollar exchange rate next year at the level of 63.3 rubles / dollar. At the same time, the forecast oil price is $50 per barrel. In November of this year, prices on the oil market have already dropped to $45 per barrel, and in the current environment, this trend may continue.
The main reason is excess oil production. Major exporters continue to compete fiercely for global market share, including through price factors. The situation is also fueled by the imminent return of Iranian oil supplies, which will be another blow to the market.
If the cost of 1 barrel continues to decline to $40 and remains at this level throughout 2016, the Russian economy will face another stage of turmoil, the Ministry of Economic Development warns. The implementation of this scenario will lead to a sharp increase in the dollar exchange rate to 75 rubles / dollar. Moreover, under such conditions, the renewal economic growth will be delayed for the long term.
According to an analyst at Nordea Bank, the dependence of the ruble on oil prices has reached 88%. With a significant decline in prices for "black gold", the Russian currency loses its value. According to the calculations of the chief economist of "Alfa Bank" Natalia Orlova, the fall in the cost of 10 dollars per barrel. leads to an increase in the exchange rate by 5 rubles / dollar.
The dynamics of the oil market will determine whether there will be a devaluation of the ruble in 2016. Base Scenario assumes the preservation of quotations at the level of 50 dollars per barrel. In this case, the Russian currency will be able to strengthen to 63.3 rubles / dollar, the Ministry of Economic Development is sure. However, the current trends in the “black gold” market indicate a possible fall in prices.
If the cost of “black gold” falls to $40/bbl, the next stage of devaluation will not be avoided. Experts from the Ministry of Economic Development expect the exchange rate to be at the level of 75 rubles/dollar. when implementing this scenario.
Last year, before the new year, all Russians received a surprise. The ruble exchange rate collapsed in a matter of days compared to the dollar and the euro. And the ruble never returned to pre-crisis levels. It was a full-fledged and very significant and painful devaluation of the ruble.
Can we expect this scenario to repeat itself in the future? What are the prospects for the ruble in 2016? What do analysts and experts think about this?
WILL THE RUBLE DEVALUATION IN 2016 IN RUSSIA LATEST NEWS
Some analysts believe that the devaluation of the ruble is not yet over and that it is quite possible that it could come again in 2016. In particular, Goldman Sachs Bank says that if oil prices fall, the ruble may fall even lower than the current low values. They even name specific figures of 100-120 rubles per dollar and, accordingly, a slightly more expensive euro. Also, a few months ago, the press published information about stress tests for banks from the Central Bank, which calculated the possible development of events if the dollar costs that much. Then there were denials in the press. But there is no smoke without fire, right?
Another source, well-known economist Vladislav Zhukovsky, says that the ruble exchange rate may fall to the level of 75-85 rubles per dollar in the near future. The exact dates are not called. But it was about 2016. By the way, these forecasts almost came true when in the fall of 2015 the ruble again showed a negative trend against the dollar and the euro.
Economists from Alfabank say that the ruble is now close to its fundamental values, so they do not expect any second wave of devaluation in 2016. According to experts, the exchange rate of the ruble will most likely be at the level of 60-67 rubles compared to the dollar.
Currently, I personally keep all my savings in rubles and do not plan to convert them into foreign currencies. And the point is not that there can be no devaluation in the future. It's just a game of roulette. In theory, the ruble, of course, can still weaken to foreign currencies. But in practice, the ruble may strengthen. Plus, you always lose with currency speculation in the spread (unfavorable bank rates for buying and selling currencies). In addition, it is better to earn money, and not to wind your nerves with questions in what currency to store it. Plus, no one has canceled the good old rule. Don't keep all your eggs in one basket. If there is any doubt, it is better to separate the savings in rubles, currency deposits(I advise you to pay attention only to reliable banks), and also do not forget about investing in real estate, if there is a sufficient amount of free funds.
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