partial crisis. Economic crises and their types
Classification of crises
The whole variety of economic crises can be classified according to three different bases.
By the scale of imbalance in economic systems.
General crises cover the entire national economy.
Global crises are determined by the coverage of both individual industries and areas
economic activity on a global scale, and the entire world economy.
Partial apply to any one area or industry
economy. Partial crises are associated with a drop in economic activity within large areas of activity.
In particular, we are talking about money circulation and loans, banking system, stock and currency markets. So, the financial crisis is a deep disorder public finance. It manifests itself in
permanent budget deficits(when government spending exceeds its revenues). An extreme manifestation of financial collapse is the insolvency of the state on foreign loans (during the world economic crisis of 1929-1933, Great Britain, France, Germany, and Italy stopped making payments on foreign loans. In 1931, the United States deferred all payments on foreign debts for a year). In August 1998, a huge financial crisis broke out in Russia.
Monetary crisis-a shock to the monetary system.
There is a sharp decline in commercial and bank loan, a massive withdrawal of deposits and the collapse of banks, the pursuit of cash by the population and entrepreneurs, the fall in stock and bond prices, as well as a decrease in the rate of bank interest.
The currency crisis was expressed in the elimination of the gold standard in circulation on the world market and the depreciation of the currencies of individual countries (lack of foreign "hard" currencies, depletion of foreign exchange reserves in banks, falling exchange rates).
Exchange crisis - a sharp decline in rates valuable papers, significant
reduction of their emissions, deep downturns in activities stock exchange.
Crisis phenomena in the economy can cover separate, but interconnected areas, these are convergent crises. In this case, the parameters characterizing the development of a particular sphere, sector of the economy are subject to change. As a result, these crises are able to reinforce each other and eventually turn into the so-called systemic crisis, covering the economy as a whole, which is expressed in a corresponding change in macroeconomic aggregates.
Convergent crises can exist in isolation, without attracting attention, that is, in this case, their presence in the economy is expressed in a decrease in the quality of individual subsystems without a significant impact on macroeconomic indicators.
By the regularity of imbalance in the economy.
Periodic crises are repeated regularly at some intervals.
Cyclical crises are recurring recessions
social production, causing paralysis of business and labor
activity (activities) in all spheres of the national economy and giving rise to a new cycle of economic activity.
Intermediate crises are sporadically occurring recessions
social production, which temporarily interrupt the stages of revival and rise of the national economy.
Unlike cyclical crises, they do not give rise to a new cycle, they are interrupted at some stage, they are local in nature, they are less deep and less prolonged.
Irregular crises have their own specific causes.
A sectoral shock covers one of the branches of the national economy and is caused by a change in the structure of production, the disruption of normal economic ties, etc. An example is the suspension of production in the textile industry in 1977.
The agrarian crisis is a sharp deterioration in the sale of agricultural products (falling prices for agricultural products). Agrarian crises, as a rule, are caused by a combination of natural factors, omissions in the organization of labor, technical backwardness, imperfect systems of land use and land tenure, etc. Agrarian crises are distinguished by their duration and anticyclicity.
Structural crises are associated with a gradual and prolonged increase in intersectoral disproportions in social production (one-sided and ugly development of some sectors to the detriment of others, deterioration in the certain types production) and are characterized by a discrepancy between the existing structure of social production and the changed conditions for the efficient use of resources. They cause long-term shocks and require for their resolution a relatively long period of adaptation to the changed conditions of the process of social reproduction. A striking example of the global structural
crisis can serve as an energy crisis that developed in the mid-70s, which required more than 5 years for the adaptation of national economies to industrial developed countries to a new energy price structure.
Sectoral crises are characterized by declines in production and curtailment of economic activity in one of the branches of industry, the national economy. The history of such crises is most fully traced in the coal, steel, textile, and shipbuilding industries.
Seasonal crises are caused by the influence of suitable climatic factors that disrupt the accepted rhythm of economic activity. In particular, a delay in the onset of spring could cause a crisis in public utilities due to lack of fuel.
By the nature of the violation of the proportions of reproduction.
There are two types here.
The crisis of overproduction of goods is the release of an excessive amount of useful things that do not find a market. The crisis of underproduction of goods is their acute shortage to meet the solvent demand of the population.
Economic crises- this is an inevitable phenomenon in any economy, which is characterized by an extreme aggravation of existing economic and social contradictions and disproportions. Crises, depending on their scale, can be divided into local (capturing only part of the economic system) and general, which occur in all industries and areas. Also, economic crises are classified by problem. Microcrises are crises that affect a small group of problems or one problem. While macrocrises are mainly caused by issues of significant scale.
Essence and types of economic crises
- A cyclical crisis is a crisis in all areas of the economy caused by overproduction. It occurs before the start of a new cycle in the economy;
- The interim crisis is local in nature and is a response to temporary imbalances in the economy;
- A partial crisis affects only one area of the economy and can occur in both boom and bust;
- The sectoral crisis captures related industries and is caused by the aging of industries, lack of personnel, rising prices for raw materials;
- Structural crisis is caused by the need for major changes in the economic structure and lasts for several cycles;
- The monetary crisis is characterized by massive withdrawals, reduced lending, falling prices, bank failures, soaring interest rates.
FEDERAL STATE BUDGET EDUCATION
INSTITUTION OF HIGHER PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION
Orenburg State Agrarian University
Institute of Continuing Professional Education
Department of professional
education and applied economics
Course work
discipline: "Macroeconomics"
on the topic: "The essence, types and features of economic crises"
Completed by a student of the 11th group of the 1st year
specialty: Economics
Saktaganova Dina
Checked by: Arinushkina I.S.
Orenburg 2013
Content
- Introduction
- 2.2 Main types of crises
- 3. Global financial crisis
- 3.1 The essence of the global financial crisis
- 3.2 Crisis in selected countries
- 3.3 Financial and economic crisis of 2008-2010 in Russia
- Conclusion
- Literature
Introduction
As you know, modern society strives for constant improvement in the level and conditions of life, which can only be ensured by sustainable economic growth. However, observations show that long-term economic growth is not uniform, but is constantly interrupted by periods economic instability and even crises.
Crises have a negative impact on almost everything and therefore they are trying to fight. But even in such developed countries as the USA, Great Britain, France, Germany and other countries of Western Europe, we do not see much success in the fight against economic crises.
The problem of economic crises is relevant at the present time in our country. Studies of economic crises at the global level, in particular in Russia, should help economists learn how to get out of them painlessly and quickly. In addition, it is important to investigate the causes of economic cycles and figure out how their fluctuations smooth out so that you can use this knowledge to regulate these cycles so that they do not have a devastating effect on the economy. By learning how to smooth out economic cycles, people will immediately feel the result in the form of the country's economic prosperity and personal well-being. And the main goal of economists is to achieve just such results. But not everything is so simple. Scientists for several centuries have not been able to figure out the exact causes of cycles. At present, there are only theories of the emergence of economic cycles, with which other economists agree or provide their point of view. However, this question remains open to this day.
Known American economist Alvin Hansen, who devoted much of his work to the study of economic cycles, put it this way: “Throughout the history of literature on business cycles various economists again and again expressed the opinion that the origin of cyclical fluctuations remains an unsolvable mystery"
Macroeconomic equilibrium in practice is rather an amazing accident, an exception that proves the rule: the market economy is unstable. Economic history The last two centuries provide us with a great many examples of this instability. After periods of successful industrial development and general economic prosperity, there have always been periods of downturns, accompanied by a fall in output and unemployment.
All of the above suggests that the problem of economic crises is one of the central ones in economic theory. As you know, since 2008 the whole world has been gripped by the global financial and economic crisis. It struck unexpectedly and still excites the minds of many, since it is not yet known how long it will last and how strong an imprint it will leave on the economies of countries. Performing this term paper, I set myself the following goals: to deeply understand the essence of economic crises, the causes of various types of these crises in the United States, Western Europe and Russia, their classification according to various criteria, as well as the consequences that they entail yourself.
The set goals involve the solution of some problems. It is necessary to analyze what measures were taken by the leaders of various states in the fight against this phenomenon, which were correct, and which were doomed to failure. Of course, we will talk about the "Great Depression" of the United States - a crisis whose consequences affected the whole world. This paper will analyze the causes of the global energy crisis of the 70s, which had no less negative significance for the economy of many states than the Great Depression.
Also, of course, a separate chapter will be allocated to the global financial crisis. I would like to analyze in more detail the cause of its occurrence, the measures taken by states to preserve the economies of countries, the consequences, which, unfortunately, are inevitable in any case.
In the process of writing the work, materials from periodicals and economic literature were used. Almost all literature was found by me in in electronic format. The work consists of introduction, three chapters, conclusion, bibliography.
economic crisis global financial
1. History of economic crises
1.1 The history of the concept of "economic crisis"
The concept of crisis has many levels and interpretations. The expression "crisis" comes from the Greek word "crisis", which means "a sentence, a decision on any issue, or in a doubtful situation." It can also mean "exit, resolution of the conflict (to pr. military)". But the modern meaning of the word is most often used by Hippocrates and doctors: and the crisis means the decisive phase in the development of the disease. In this sense, we are talking about "crisis" when the disease intensifies or passes into another disease or even ends in death. For example, a laconic formulation is given by Koselleck: a crisis is "a barely measurable turning point at which the solution is either death or life." In the 17th-18th centuries, the concept of crisis began to be applied in relation to the processes taking place in society, such as military, political crises, while using the almost unchanged meaning of the crisis taken from medicine. And finally, in the 19th century, the meaning shifted to economics. "Classic" economic concept crisis, formed at that time, means an undesirable and dramatic phase in the capitalist economic system, characterized by fluctuations and negative phenomena, interference. In this sense, the concept of crisis has long occupied a strong place in the scheme of conjuncture theories in the development of the economy. So Spiethoff's cyclic scheme contains the stages: recession - first rise - second rise - peak - lack of capital - crisis. But this definition does not take into account many different patterns and stages of development and functioning of the economy. Therefore, the "classic" definition of the crisis was replaced by the more ambiguous concept of "economic crisis". According to Mechlap's definition, we are talking about an economic crisis if "an undesirable state of economic relations arises, an unbearably critical situation for large segments of the population and the producing sectors of the economy."
Sombart defines the economic crisis as "an economic negative phenomenon in which a massive danger to economic life and reality arises." In microeconomics, the concept of "enterprise crisis" is used. In a broad sense, this means a process that threatens the existence of an enterprise. The concept of "crisis of an enterprise / crisis in an enterprise" describes in modern economic literature various phenomena in the life of an enterprise, from simple interference in the functioning of an enterprise through various conflicts up to the destruction of an enterprise, which at least for this enterprise can be characterized as catastrophic.
The crisis of the enterprise represents a turning point in the sequence of processes of events and actions. Typical for a crisis situation are two options for getting out of it, or it is the liquidation of the enterprise as an extreme form or the successful overcoming of the crisis. The most complete presentation of the signs of a crisis is given by Wiener and Kaan.
With the help of 12 features, Wiener and Kaan managed to most fully describe the concept of a crisis: “Crises: they are often a turning point in an evolving change of events and actions; they often form a situation in which urgency plays a huge role; they threaten goals and values; their the consequences are heavy on the future of the participants involved; they consist of events that create new conditions for success; they introduce uncertainty into assessing the situation and developing the necessary alternatives to overcome the crisis; they reduce control over events and their impact; they reduce reaction time to a minimum, cause stress and fear in the participants; the information available to the participants is usually insufficient; they cause a shortage of time available to the participants; they change the relationship between the participants; they increase tension, especially in political crises, that affect nations." These listed features are quite enough to fully characterize the crisis. Economic crises during which there is a forcible restoration of the main proportions of reproduction violated during the development of the capitalist economy. Economic crises are manifested in the absolute fall in production, reduction capital investments, rising unemployment, an increase in the number of bankruptcies of firms, falling stock prices and other economic shocks.
The cause of economic crises is the main contradiction of capitalism - between the social nature of production and the private capitalist form of appropriation of its results. The division of labor, the specialization of production, and co-operation in industry link capitalist enterprises into a single economic mechanism, for the normal functioning of which it is necessary that certain proportions be observed on the scale of the entire economy between sectors, the production of means of production and the production of consumer goods, between the accumulation of capital and consumption. But the dominance of private property, the anarchy of production that it generates, fierce competition, and the exploitation of labor by capital lead to a constant violation of the proportions of reproduction. Some of these violations are eliminated spontaneously, others - intensify and accumulate.
In the system of disproportions of reproduction arising in the course of economic development, there is always a violation of the proportions between capital accumulation and consumption. The striving of capital for self-expansion, the pursuit of profits, is ensured by the slow growth (and sometimes even reduction) of the incomes and consumption of the working people. The contradiction between production and consumption that arises from this accumulates, reaches an explosive point and, as a rule, becomes the direct cause of economic crises.
1.2 Theory of the development of crises in the global economy
By itself, the economic crisis does not arise from anywhere and does not go anywhere. It is an integral part of what in economic theory is called the cycle. The cyclical nature of economic development has been proven by time. Economic crises of overproduction are organically inherent in capitalism and inevitably accompany it in its historical development. The theory, popular in the middle of our century, about state regulation of the economy in order to prevent crises, which made it possible to carry out short-term smoothing of unfavorable trends, did not live up to expectations in the long term, failing to resist the general trend of cyclical development market economy.
The objective causes of each crisis always lie in the previous development of the economy at other stages of the cycle. The beginning of periodic economic crises was laid by the crisis of 1825 in Great Britain, where capitalist industries developed first of all. relations. The next crisis - the crisis of 1836, engulfed Great Britain and the USA - 2 countries closely connected economically. In 1847 there was another crisis that affected almost all the countries of Europe. By its nature, it approached the global crisis.
The first world economic crisis took place in 1857 and in almost all countries it was the deepest crisis since they entered the capitalist path of development. In the US, iron production fell by 20% during the crisis, and cotton consumption by 27%. In the UK, shipbuilding was hit the hardest, with output falling 26%. In Germany, the consumption of pig iron was reduced by 25%; in France - by 13% iron smelting and cotton consumption by the same amount; in Russia iron smelting fell by 17%, the output of cotton fabrics - by 14%.
The new economic crisis of 1866 was especially acute in Great Britain, but the rest of the countries were not affected much. The next world crisis began in 1873 with Austria and Germany. It was the longest crisis in the history of capitalism: it ended in 1878, when Great Britain also fell into the orbit of its action. The economic crisis of 1882 affected mainly the USA and France; During the crisis of 1890, the greatest economic upheavals were observed in Germany, the USA and France. The crisis of 1900-1903 became a kind of boundary between the era of free competition capitalism and the era of imperialism. During this crisis, the United States and Germany were particularly affected, and to a lesser extent the United Kingdom and France. The economic situation in Russia was also difficult, where the economic crisis coincided with a crop failure.
Bourgeois ideologists hoped that with the emergence of capitalist monopolies, systematically organizing production at their enterprises, economic crises would disappear, or at least soften. But that did not happen. The first economic crisis of the era of imperialism - the crisis of 1907 was no less destructive than the previous ones. It particularly affected the US economy. In Art. "Marxism and revisionism" V.I. Lenin wrote that the crisis of 1907 was clear evidence that crises remained inevitable. integral part capitalist system. At the same time, Lenin pointed out that in the era of imperialism "the forms, the sequence, the pattern of individual crises have changed."
The economic crisis of 1920-1921 affected mainly the USA and Great Britain. In 1929, a most severe world economic crisis broke out, which lasted until the middle of 1933 and shook the entire system of capitalism to its foundations. Industrial production during this crisis decreased in the US by 46%, in the UK by 24%, in Germany by 41%, in France by 32%. Stock prices of industrial companies fell in the US by 87%, in the UK by 48%, in Germany by 64%, in France by 60%. Unemployment reached colossal proportions. According to official data, in 1933 there were 30 million unemployed in 32 capitalist countries, including 14 million in the USA. The world crisis of 1929-1933 showed that the contradiction between the social nature of production and private form appropriation of the results of production has reached such a sharpness that the capitalist economy can no longer function more or less normally.
This circumstance required state intervention in the economy, the use of methods of state influence on spontaneous processes in the capitalist economy in order to avoid shocks, which accelerated the development of monopoly capitalism into state-monopoly capitalism. State long-term programming economic growth, carried out in many capitalist countries after the 2nd World War of 1939-1945, as well as operational counter-cyclical regulation, had a certain stabilizing effect on the development of the capitalist countries. However, despite this, the features of the economic crisis were quite clearly manifested during this period in the USA, Great Britain, Canada, Germany, and Italy. In most other capitalist countries, the resolution of the accumulated contradictions of expanded capitalist reproduction occurred in the form of recessions in economic activity with a sharp drop in economic growth rates, with a predominant curtailment of the production of means of production and a slowdown in capital accumulation. Most often in these three decades, economic crises recurred in the United States - in 1948-1949, 1953-1954, 1957-1958, 1960-1961, 1969-1971 and 1973-1975 - with a drop in industrial production by 17%, 9%, 13, respectively. %, 7%, 8% and 13%.
The first post-war world crisis began at the end of 1957 and lasted until the middle of 1958. It engulfed the USA, Great Britain, Canada, Belgium, the Netherlands and some other capitalist countries. Industrial production in the developed capitalist countries fell by 4%.
The army of the unemployed has reached almost 10 million people. Relatively stable economic development of a number of capitalist countries in the 50s - 60s. contributed to the emergence of bourgeois and revisionist theories, claiming that there is supposedly the possibility of a crisis-free development of capitalism on the path to improving the methods of state regulation of economic processes. However, capitalist reality soon disproved these theories. In the early 70s. in the capitalist system, a whole series of violations of the reproduction process arose, which led to the deployment of the next world economic crisis, which began in the United States at the end of 1973, and then in 1974 and 1975 engulfed almost the entire capitalist world. This crisis, in terms of breadth of coverage of countries, duration, depth and destructive force, significantly surpassed the world crisis of 1957-1958 and, in a number of characteristics, approached the crisis of 1929-1933. During the crisis, industrial production declined in the United States, for example, by 13%, in Japan by 20%, in Germany by 22%, in Great Britain by 10%, in France by 13%, in Italy by 14%. Share prices in just one year - from December 1973 to December 1974 - fell in the USA by 33%, in Japan by 17%, in the FRG by 10%, in Great Britain by 56%, in France by 33%, in Italy by 28%. The number of bankruptcies in 1974 compared with 1973 increased in the USA by 6%, in Japan by 42%, in the FRG by 40%, in Great Britain by 47%, and in France by 27%. By mid-1975, the number of completely unemployed in the developed capitalist countries had reached 15 million. In addition, more than 10 million were placed on part-time work or temporarily laid off from enterprises. The real incomes of working people have fallen everywhere. For example, in the USA total amount real incomes of working people, which in 1950-70 grew by an average of about 3% per year, fell by 6% in the period 1973-75.
The special depth and duration of the world economic crisis of 1973-1975 is explained by the fact that it was intertwined with the strongest inflationary processes in all capitalist countries, with currency and energy crises, and aggravation of food and environmental problems. The crisis of 1973-1975 demonstrated the limited ability of the bourgeois state to regulate spontaneous economic processes, the movement of the economy in cycles. The inability of the governments of the capitalist countries to prevent the crisis and find a way out of it speaks of the onset in the 70s. the crisis of the state counter-cyclical regulation itself. With a significantly increased level of socialization of production, a wide and deep internationalization of economic life, the forms and methods of counter-cyclical regulation developed in the first years after World War II ceased to be effective in the 70s. The basic contradiction of capitalism again manifested itself in an acute form.
In the mid-70s, the entire capitalist world was engulfed in a protracted and deep cyclical crisis of overproduction, accompanied by specific processes and phenomena. The crisis began to develop in the autumn of 1973 in the USA, Great Britain and Germany. In other countries, it began slightly later. Such a synchronicity of the crisis in the post-war period was observed for the first time. It is due to some new phenomena that appeared in the economy of the capitalist countries in the 70s, primarily the similarity of the technical and economic level of the leading capitalist countries. The crisis of 1973-1975 was the first major post-war crisis for Japan, Germany and a number of other countries. An important feature of the crisis of 1973-1975 is that it was intertwined with many non-cyclical structural crises. These are crises of shortage, not overproduction. They are manifested by a shortage of fuel, raw materials and food on the world market, which entails a significant increase in prices. Prices for raw materials and fuel rose especially rapidly in 1974. This growth went down in history under the name of the new "price revolution".
The crisis of 1973-1975 proceeded in the conditions of the world currency crisis, which manifested itself in a sharp depreciation of the dollar, an increase in gold prices and a general instability in international trade and financial relations. It was this crisis that was first characterized by such a process as slumpflation: a simultaneous decline in industrial production and rising prices (inflation). Economic crises demonstrate the discrepancy between the production relations of bourgeois society and its productive forces, reveal the transient nature of the capitalist mode of production, which can develop only at the cost of periodic waste of material and human resources. They convince the working people of the need to fight for a new social system free from crises, unemployment and exploitation - for socialism.
1.3 Division of the crisis process into stages
The necessary division of the crisis process into various stages is primarily related to determining the point and time for applying measures to influence the crisis, prevent and overcome the crisis. Kristek characterizes the stages of the crisis process in terms of opportunities, potential for overcoming the crisis and early warning about it. The individual stages of the crisis process according to Kristek can be described as follows:
1. Stage: potential crisis. The crisis of an enterprise as a process finds its beginning in the potential phase, i.e. only a possible but not yet real crisis of the enterprise. And due to the lack of reliable symptoms of the crisis, this state of the enterprise is characterized as quasi-normal, i.e. almost like the state in which the enterprise is constantly located, and it gives time the starting point for the emergence of a crisis in the enterprise.
2. Stage: latent / hidden crisis. This phase of the crisis process is characterized by a latent crisis that already exists or is likely to begin soon, the impact of which is not determined by the standard tools available to the enterprise. But the use of special methods of early recognition at this stage makes it possible to actively influence the latent crisis with the help of preventive measures. In general, at this stage, the potential of the enterprise to overcome the crisis, as a rule, is not used in full. The main emphasis here lies in the use of early warning/recognition systems.
3. Stage: acute surmountable crisis. At this stage, the enterprise begins to directly feel the negative impact emanating from the crisis. At the same time, the intensity of real destructive influences directed against the enterprise increases, which causes a sharp shortage, time pressure, urgency / urgency of decision-making. With a further decrease alternatives actions due to the exhaustion of available time, the requirements for finding effective ways to solve problems (factors for overcoming the crisis) increase. At this stage, in order to overcome the crisis, the mobilization of more and more forces of the enterprise is required and the reserves available to overcome the crisis are completely exhausted. At this stage, there is still the possibility of overcoming (curbing) an acute crisis, because the existing capacity to overcome the crisis is sufficient to cope with the crisis. Crisis management requirements are pushed to the limit, and crisis management measures should show their effect in improving the situation in the very short time available.
4. Stage: acute unsurmountable crisis. If it is not possible to curb an acute crisis, then the enterprise enters the last stage of the development of the crisis process, which ends with the liquidation of the enterprise. At this stage, the requirements for overcoming the crisis far exceed the available potential. Overcoming the crisis process is not possible, especially due to the absence or unsuccessful measures, actions, due to the extremely strong pressure of time and due to the increasing intensity of destructive influences directed against the enterprise.
2. Economic crises and their types
2.1 The essence of economic crises. The reasons for their occurrence
A crisis is a sharp violation of the existing balance, due to growing disproportions economic indicators. At this interval, there is a decrease in aggregate demand and, as a result, an excess supply. As demand shrinks, supply issues arise finished products and unemployment is on the rise. There is a reduction in all economic indicators. All types of income, including wages, investments, profits, and prices are beginning to decline at a rapid pace. Due to the paralyzed capital, stored in the form of unrealized goods, there is an acute shortage Money to pay fixed costs, so the payment for a loan is growing rapidly - the loan interest rate. The prices of stocks and bonds, as well as other securities, begin to decline, so there is a wave of bankruptcy and mass closing of enterprises. The crisis ends with the onset of depression.
Since the production of goods crosses the border set by the narrow limits of the effective demand of the population, the economic crisis takes on the character of a general overproduction of goods and an overaccumulation of capital. It completes one capitalist cycle and clears the way for the next by correcting the disturbed proportions between capital accumulation and consumption, the production of means, production and production of consumer goods. The economic crisis sharply aggravates class contradictions, since the entire burden of the disasters they bring falls mainly on the shoulders of the working people. This causes an intensification of the class struggle, in the course of which the self-consciousness of the working class, its organization and solidarity are growing.
Also, economic crises lead to huge economic losses for society, since during them a significant part of the production apparatus is idle, and hundreds of thousands and even millions of workers lose their jobs. The timing of the onset, depth and duration of the economic crisis depend primarily on the degree of violation of the basic proportions of reproduction during economic upswings. But, in addition, crises are capable of self-generating, since in the course of them there is usually a fall in the purchasing power of workers (due to rising unemployment and reduced working hours), which further complicates the conditions for the sale of goods and prevents the restoration of a temporary balance between capital accumulation and consumption.
Although the cause of economic crises is the same, each crisis has its own specific features, due to the specific historical conditions in which it develops. Their course is affected by the characteristics of the era, and the level of development of capitalism, and the whole complex of economic and political factors operating in a particular country at the time of the development of the crisis.
2.2 Main types of crises
The starting category for understanding economic crises is the concept of the business cycle. The economic cycle can be defined as the time interval between two qualitatively identical states of the economic situation. Economic fluctuations are deviations from a stable state of the most important parameters of the economy - production volume, price levels, employment, etc.
Business cycles consist of four phases:
III phase of the crisis;
III phase of decision (depression);
III phase of recovery;
Ш lifting phase;
Crisis phase:
1. The sale of industrial goods begins to be difficult, and a significant part of the goods are not sold at all.
2. Market prices for goods fall.
3. The mass and rate of profit of firms is decreasing.
4. The investment activity of firms stops for two reasons:
1) It makes no sense to increase the production of goods, since the goods produced earlier have not yet been sold.
2) The mass of profits of firms decreases, and, consequently, financial opportunities firms to expand production.
5. Firms stop repaying loans, and in general, a payment crisis begins. As a result, mass bankruptcies of firms and banks begin, and the interest rate for loans becomes very high, rising from 10-15% to 30-50% per annum. And even under this high stakes percent, banks only lend to people they trust.
6. Significantly increases unemployment.
7. The standard of living of the majority of the country's citizens is noticeably declining.
8. The volume of production of the gross national product is falling sharply.
9. Chronic downtime of production capacities begins (up to 60-70%).
Finally, the economic crisis reaches its nadir, at which gross national output and market prices do not decrease and unemployment does not increase. Stagnation (recession) begins when production stops.
Decision phase (depression):
The market economy independently emerges from the crisis. Firms are trying to get at least some profit for their products by any means. Firms then begin a fundamental micro-restructuring to reduce production costs and earn average profits at these low prices. To do this, firms mobilize all available financial resources, take loans at any interest from commercial banks and begin to produce products that are in demand on the market, while firms refuse to produce unprofitable types of products. That is, the structure of production of these firms is changing radically, but for all this they need to update their fixed capital. Therefore begin investment activities firms, the demand for investment goods begins to increase, and production in other firms begins to expand along the technological chain, which means that demand increases and the market economy gradually emerges from the depression phase and the third phase begins - the recovery phase. In addition, the crisis clears the market economy of all weak firms, which in normal times were not very profitable.
Recovery phase:
Its characteristic feature is the massive renewal of fixed capital.
This phase continues until the pre-crisis level of gross national product production is reached. And when a massive renewal of fixed capital begins and a significant expansion of production, the revival phase passes into a phase of recovery.
Rise phase:
1. The rate of economic growth is increasing and the volume of production of the gross national product is increasing.
2. Trade is brisk and the market prices of many goods are rising.
3. The mass and rate of profit of firms increases.
4. The market economy gradually comes to full employment of all available production capacities.
5. Wages start to rise.
6. Due to the renewal of fixed capital, labor productivity also increases at this common basis wages also rise.
7. The number of unemployed is decreasing.
According to the criterion of duration in the economic literature, three types of economic cycles are distinguished: large (long waves) - 45-60 years; medium - 7-13 years; small (short) - 3-4 years.
The material basis of small cycles is the mass renewal of durable goods. In small cycles, the crisis is an impetus for the modernization and technical improvement of production, and, consequently, for the expansion of the market. Medium (industrial) cycles are associated with a change in demand for equipment and facilities, and the demand itself, its magnitude and direction depend, in turn, on the introduction of new technical and technological achievements, which is usually carried out in 7-13 years. The material basis of medium cycles is the massive renewal of fixed capital, as a result of which production is improved. However, at some stage, further improvement of production becomes impossible, the old technical system is replaced by another system, the improvement of which takes place over several medium cycles. This technical system also exhausts itself, and a new technological mode of production sets in, the length of which corresponds to a large economic cycle (long wave). In large cycles, crisis processes require the introduction of basic innovations. This stimulates not only the growth of production, but also the restructuring of the entire economy and the mechanism of its functioning. Consequently, large cycles are characterized not only by the expansion of the market, but also by the creation of new markets.
It is generally accepted that there is a relationship between all types of economic cycles. Long waves absorb shorter cycles. Each long cycle is formed, first of all, as a result of the interaction of scientific and technological progress, on the one hand, and the entire economic system, on the other hand.
Both small and large cycles in the economies of developed countries move relatively synchronously, forming world cycles. Small cycles are an organic part of large cycles. If they arose in the downward phase of large cycles, then they are characterized by the depth of the crisis, the duration of the depression, and the weakness of the recovery. The upward phase of large cycles is characterized by small cycles with strong ups and weak depressions.
The economic crisis is one of the phases of the cycle, and it can also be classified according to several criteria:
1) According to the nature of the violation of the proportions of reproduction, two types are distinguished:
Ш Crisis of overproduction of goods - the release of an excessive amount of useful things that do not find a market.
Ш Crisis of underproduction of goods - their acute shortage to meet the solvent demand of the population.
In the future, they will be considered in more detail.
2) According to the scale of imbalance in economic systems, crises are usually divided into general (crises covering the entire national economy) and partial (crises covering any one sphere or sector of the economy).
So, financial crisis- deep disorder of public finances. It manifests itself in constant budget deficits (when government spending significantly exceeds its revenues). The extreme manifestation of the financial crisis is the insolvency of the state on foreign loans. For example, during the world economic crisis of 1929-1933. Great Britain, France, Germany, Italy stopped payments on external loans. And the USA in 1931. all payments on external debts were deferred for a year.
Monetary Crisis- the shock of the monetary system. There is a sharp reduction bank loans, a run on deposits and the collapse of banks, the pursuit of cash by the population and entrepreneurs, the fall in stock and bond prices, as well as bank interest rates.
Currency crisis expressed in the depreciation of the currencies of individual countries (lack of foreign "hard" currencies, the depletion of foreign exchange reserves in banks, the fall in exchange rates).
stock market crisis- a sharp decline in securities prices, a significant reduction in their emissions, deep recessions in the activities of the stock exchange.
Agrarian crisis- this is a sharp deterioration in the sale of agricultural products (falling prices for agricultural products).
Structural crisis due to the violation of normal relations between branches of production (one-sided development of one branch to the detriment of others, deterioration of the situation in certain types of production). For example, in the mid-1970s, great difficulties arose in supplying Western countries with raw materials and energy carriers.
3) According to the regularity of imbalance in the economy, crises are divided into:
Ш Periodic crises are repeated regularly at some intervals.
Ш Intermediate ones do not give rise to a full business cycle and are interrupted at some stage; are shallower and shorter duration.
Irregular crises have their own specific causes.
Economic crises have two sides. One of them is destructive. It is connected with the decisive elimination of the existing abnormal proportions in the economy. Often large surpluses of goods were savagely destroyed.
The other side is health. It is inevitable, because during a depression, falling prices make production unprofitable: it does not give the usual, average profit. The renewal of fixed capital (machinery, equipment) helps to get out of this impasse. This allows you to reduce the cost of manufacturing products, make it sufficiently profitable. As a result, the crisis clears the market economy of all weak firms.
The first type of economic crises are crises of overproduction. The essence of economic crises of overproduction lies in the fact that the basic market equilibrium between supply and demand is disturbed. The supply goes beyond the scope of demand, and if this happens on a tangible scale, then an economic crisis of overproduction of goods begins.
There are several theories according to which economic crises of overproduction appear:
1. According to Marx - the law of surplus value. Its action is explained as follows: firms strive to obtain a large mass and profit margin, for this they try to expand and improve production and produce more and more products. Firms then make a large mass of profit not only by raising market prices for their products, but also by increasing the number of units produced and sold, and each unit of production brings firms some small amount of profit. And then the greater the number of units of output produced, the greater the mass of profits received by firms. This is the way to earn a large amount of profit through turnover, even when market prices and production costs are unchanged. But, by increasing production in order to obtain a greater mass of profit, firms do not look very much at the demand for their products. There is demand, so firms want to skim off this good economic situation and increase production, and the sale of these products has a rather complex structure: large-scale, medium-scale, small-scale wholesale and retail trade. And here in retail hitches are already beginning in the sale of products, but the wholesale network does not yet know about this and continues to purchase products from firms. And now, finally, demand restrictions on manufactured products become clear to all forms of business, but it's too late, since the supply of goods has gone beyond demand, and an economic crisis of overproduction has begun.
2. Monetary theory of crises. The essence of this theory is that when the economy is good and trade is going well, cash flow, directed to the market economy, is growing. In other words, the supply of money for a market economy from central bank, commercial banks and the stock exchange increases, that is, the money supply increases, functioning in a market economy. As a result, credit becomes cheaper, firms take such credit willingly to expand production, and cash flow increases. Commercial banks need to raise the interest rate for loans, as the economic pace is beyond the optimal, and thereby reduce the money supply for a market economy. But to everyone commercial bank in isolation it is difficult to know when he needs to pause, and the cash flow continues to increase, and then the supply goes beyond the limits of demand and the crisis of overproduction begins.
3. The theory of underconsumption or the theory of excessive savings. The essence of this theory is that, for some reason, households begin to save more of their income compared to how much they saved before. Those. under the influence of some rumors, for example, that the ruble exchange rate will soon rise to unprecedented heights, the country's population begins to rapidly "hide money under the pillow." And then some part of what was produced in this year gross national product will not be realized. Excessive saving can also occur due to economic instability in society. As a result, supply goes beyond demand and a crisis of overproduction begins.
4. The theory of overaccumulation of fixed capital. When the economic situation is good in a market economy, firms begin to capitalize more and more of their profits to increase and renew the fixed capital. In other words, entrepreneurs strive to scale up production as quickly as possible, buy new equipment and hire more qualified and, consequently, more expensive specialists. They sometimes even create spare production capacity, assuming that such an economic environment will last for a long time. As a result, surplus fixed capital accumulates, and when the economic situation worsens, the demand for goods falls sharply and the investment activity of firms slows down. It is necessary to reduce the staff, and to exploit the rest at the workplace "in full". As a result, unemployment rises, demand for consumer goods falls, and an overproduction crisis begins in the economy.
The crisis of overproduction and the mechanisms for getting out of it can be seen on the example of the Great Depression. Until the early 1930s, Western economists were dominated by the idea that economic downturns (crises) are due to random causes, that the mechanism of market self-regulation, in principle, ensures a correspondence between aggregate demand and supply. This means that this mechanism ensures both the automatic exit of the economy from the crisis and its subsequent rise based on the renewal of fixed capital and the liquidation of unprofitable enterprises. It happens in the following way. Morally obsolete equipment in a crisis is not able to ensure a sustainable growth in production and cannot bring profit to an entrepreneur. Therefore, the entrepreneur suffers losses. In order for his business not to fail completely, he seeks by any means to get at least some profit for his products. And then he begins a radical restructuring of his enterprise in order to reduce production costs and make a profit. The entrepreneur mobilizes all the resources available to him, takes loans from commercial banks at any interest rate and begins to produce products that are in great demand on the market, while refusing to produce unprofitable types of products. That is, the structure of production of his company is radically changing. But for all this, he needs to renew his fixed capital. Along the technological chain, production in other firms begins to expand, which means that demand increases and the market economy is gradually coming out of the depression phase. Hence the conclusion was made about the undesirability, and even the harm of state intervention in economic life. However, the deep crisis and protracted depression of the 1930s fundamentally contradicted this theory. It became obvious that the mechanism of market self-regulation does not cope with its functions, does not provide an automatic way out of the crisis, which required a transition to active state regulation of the economy.
The theory of state regulation of the market economy was, as is known, built by John Maynard Keynes and his followers. Keynes concluded that a way out of a deep crisis, an increase in production volumes and employment levels is impossible without the active participation of the state, which should not only stimulate a decrease in the discount rate of commercial banks (interest), but also carry out large-scale government purchases in order to increase effective aggregate demand . In addition, the state must pay social benefits to the unemployed, the elderly and other disabled members of society in order to prevent a social explosion. The state must ensure full employment of the population and high growth in production. The most far-sighted statesmen of Western countries come to the fundamental conclusion that the market mechanism should be supplemented by the mechanism of direct state regulation of the economy.
In the first quarter of the 20th century, the United States was among the leading states in the world and the most prosperous in economic terms country. With the transition of industrial capitalism to monopolistic capitalism, the center of world economic development moved from Europe to North America. The United States developed the fastest and produced the most. Their share in world production has been constantly increasing. The position of the United States was strengthened even more strongly after the First World War, in particular due to significant profits from the supply of weapons and ammunition to the Entente countries. Industrial production grew rapidly, fixed capital expanded intensively, and exports increased. Economic success served as the reasons for the birth of the theory of the eternal prosperity of this state. As it turned out later, it was a "great illusion." In 1929 The world economic crisis broke out, which lasted until 1933. inclusive and most of all struck the United States.
The next type of economic crisis is the crisis of underproduction. The crisis of underproduction of goods is an acute shortage of goods to meet the solvent demand of the population. Crises of underproduction are caused by the following reasons:
1. Economic. The commodity and food crises of the 1970s disrupted the proportions of reproduction in Western countries.
2. Natural. These are droughts, floods, crop failures.
3. Social. These are wars and lack of planning in a command economy. For example, the USSR during its existence completely monopolized the economy and based it on a constant shortage of means of production for civilian sectors of the economy and consumer goods. The slow growth in the number of consumer goods over six decades has led to the fact that they began to account for only 25% of all industrial output, and the rest accounted for military products (in highly developed countries consumer goods account for 35-45% of production). The economic policy was aimed at strengthening material incentives for workers and social benefits population. In 1990 the growth of the money supply in society was six times faster than the increase in the domestic national product.
In more detail, the crisis of underproduction and the mechanisms for overcoming it can be considered on the example of the global energy crisis.
The stability of the oil market, virtually unshakable for decades, faltered noticeably in February 1971, when the Gulf states for the first time achieved a significant increase in oil prices as part of an agreement between OPEC and oil producers.
Note - OPEC is an international intergovernmental organization (also called a cartel) created by oil-producing powers to stabilize oil prices.
The leading countries recovered faster than others from the painful blow. Another thing is more important here: the oil shock caused, first of all, in the mature market economy of these countries, the formation and development of new macroeconomic trends, which in turn led to large and progressive structural changes in the entire world economy. The so-called post-industrial development was a direct result of these changes. explosive expansion information technologies would be unthinkable without the strategic redeployment of global investment resources in favor of the least energy-intensive areas and investment objects.
Note - Economic expansion refers to the violent or non-violent expansion of spheres of influence in the field of the economy.
In other words, modern post-industrial economy In many ways, it turns out to be a product of the energy crisis of the 1970s, which hit, first of all, traditional energy-intensive industries and made investments in the development of new, less costly industries more efficient. As for the “old” industries, here the crisis stimulated the development and implementation of energy-saving technologies on an unprecedented scale. Another consequence of the oil crisis of the 1970s was the gradual refusal of some developed Western countries from the strategic import of liquid fuel due to the development of their own import-substituting oil production. The hydrocarbon resources of the North Sea shelf were mostly explored even before the crisis, but their industrial exploitation became feasible only in the new economic conditions, which was not slow to take advantage of the oilmen of Britain and Norway, providing their countries with energy independence.In other developed countries of Europe, the fuel crisis caused a restructuring of their Thus, in Denmark and the Netherlands, the consumption of natural gas produced on the coastal shelf of these countries grew at a faster pace, and the share of wind power capacities in the production of electricity grew.
For less developed countries that do not have their own oil, the consequences of the crisis were more severe. They bought fuel at new prices and were forced to turn to external sources of financing. Former seller countries also suffered. Since the main export of these countries is oil, and after the rise in prices and the imposition of the embargo, the level of oil sales fell, the export opportunities of these states fell sharply.
Although over the past three decades, liquid fuel prices have not only risen, but also declined from time to time, their level since then has not come close to pre-crisis levels, invariably exceeding it many times over. Therefore, it is permissible to consider that the oil shock of 1973 at one time had a multidimensional revolutionary impact on the world economy and, in particular, on the Soviet economy. Developed countries have switched to energy conservation policy, which after 25 years has yielded results: reduction of energy intensity gross product 20 - 30% of the level of the early 70s. In these countries, even now it is considered that the limit in energy saving has not been reached, and the task of efficient use of energy resources is a long-term one. It can be seen that the 8-year energy saving program of the Russian Federation contains approximately the same rates achieved by developed countries at one time.
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The first economic crisis occurred in 1825 in England. The first world economic crisis - in 1857. Then followed the crises of 1873, 1882 and 1890. More devastating was the crisis of 1900-1901. The deepest crisis of the XX century. is the world economic crisis of 1929–1933. - The Great Depression. During this period, the decline in production amounted to 40–50%, and the unemployment rate reached 25%. A significant place in modern cyclical reproduction is given to the crises of 1974-1975 and 1980-1982.
In economic theory, the following types of crises are distinguished.
Cyclic Crisis overproduction covers all areas and sectors of the economy. It is characterized by the displacement of obsolete equipment, the reduction of production costs, the renewal of the structure of production, which leads to the creation of a new equilibrium with more efficient production. Cyclic crises of overproduction give rise to a new cycle, during which the economy passes through four phases in succession and prepares the basis for the next crisis.
Intermediate Crisis differs from the cyclical in that it does not give rise to a new cycle, but interrupts for a certain time the course of the rise or revival phase. The interim crisis is a temporary reaction to emerging imbalances in the economy. It is less deep, less long-lasting compared to the cyclical crisis and is of a local nature.
Partial Crisis differs from the intermediate one in that it covers only one area of the economy. It can occur both in the upswing phase and in the phases of revival and depression.
Industry crisis affects any sector of the economy. The reasons for its occurrence may be disproportions in the development of the industry, structural adjustment, overproduction, rising prices for raw materials, an influx of emigrant workers, cheap imports, etc.
agrarian crises, usually caused by a combination natural factors, shortcomings in the organization of labor, technical backwardness, imperfect systems of land use and land tenure, etc. Agrarian crises are distinguished by their duration and acyclicity.
Structural crisis is generated by deep disproportions between the development of individual spheres and branches of the economy. It is long-term and covers several cycles. It involves the transformation of the structure of production on a new technological basis. Structural crises can manifest themselves in the form of both relative underproduction and relative overproduction, accompany the general economic cycle or not coincide with it. The largest structural crisis occurred in 1973-1975, when the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), by sharply raising oil prices (almost 10 times), exacerbated the economic crisis that began in 1974.
World practice shows that the duration and structure of cycles are subject to constant changes. Starting from the second half of the XX century. the economic cycle began to include, in fact, only two phases: recession and recovery. A recession is understood as the state of the economy, when GDP, with a steady decline, becomes two-quarters less, which indicates a decline in production or a slowdown in its development. In fact, a recession combines two phases such as crisis and depression. The recovery phase is included in the recovery phase.
According to the classification of the US National Bureau of Economic Research ( NBER) the economic cycle includes the following phases: peak (peak, boom), contraction (recession, recession), bottom (depression, trough), recovery (expansion, recovery). Schematically this classification is presented in fig. 23.2.
Rice. 23.2.
Since the second half of the XX century. the mechanism of crises is undergoing significant changes. The process of overproduction is now accompanied by rising prices and increased inflation. This phenomenon is due to the following reasons:
- an increase in government spending, which implies an additional issue of money, which disrupts money circulation and leads to an increase in inflation;
- features of monopolistic pricing. Monopolies reduce the scale of production and thus prevent prices from falling.
During such crises, sectoral prices have different growth rates. Investments are moved to where they give the highest returns. This situation occurs before the moment when a new correlation between industries is formed, corresponding to a different level of economic equilibrium. Crises accompanied by inflation can be protracted and lead to stagnation; a period of low business activity. As a result, stagflation may occur in the economy - the state of the economy, when stagnation is combined with high unemployment and continuous price growth - inflation.
An analysis of the mechanism of the modern cycle shows that the very configuration of the cycle, its reproductive functions are changing, which significantly distinguishes the current cycle from the classical one, i.e. from the cycle of free competition. In the classical cycle, as noted above, the initial and defining phase is the crisis. It is the most important prerequisite for the progressive development of the economy through the renewal of fixed capital, reducing production costs, improving quality and increasing the competitiveness of products. The classical crisis performed its reproductive function mainly through the pricing mechanism.
At present, the nature of the modern cycle is influenced by a complex of factors that lead to a change in its quality characteristics. These factors include:
- monopolistic structure of markets;
- state regulation economy;
- scientific and technical progress;
- the process of globalization (internationalization) of production.
As you know, a monopoly position in the market enables firms to make a profit even with a reduction in production. At the same time, the maintenance of a high level of prices complicates the process of a one-time massive renewal of capital. Therefore, in modern conditions the crisis cannot fully fulfill its "cleansing" function, it does not become the starting point for a massive renewal of fixed capital.
The regulatory role of the state is realized primarily through fiscal policy. During the crisis, to stimulate the growth of production, government orders to private enterprises are expanded, as well as state construction. The state is also activating tax mechanisms to regulate the scale of investment and consumer demand. An important instrument of counter-cyclical regulation of the state is the application of monetary policy through a change in accounting, i.e. interest rate charged by central bank in lending to commercial banks.
The nature of economic cycles is significantly influenced by scientific and technological progress (STP). Increasingly accelerating rates of scientific and technical progress cause an acceleration in the renewal of fixed capital, which is observed in all phases of the cycle, including the crisis phase. As a result, the overproduction of goods as characteristic crisis is replaced by overproduction of capital and chronic underloading of production. This leads to the blurring of the classical phase-by-phase dynamics of the cycle and the cyclical nature of reproduction in general.
In the conditions of globalization of production under the influence of the international division of labor and the internationalization of economic relations, the cycle began to take on a global character. A crisis in one country entails crisis phenomena in other countries, as a result of which the entire world economy is drawn into cyclical fluctuations. So, in 1974-1975. the leading Western countries simultaneously entered into a world economic crisis of overproduction. In 1987–1989 in all the leading countries, a cyclical boom also began simultaneously. After a slight recession that lasted less than a year, in 1990-1991, the United States and the countries of Western Europe again synchronously switched to an economic recovery. This is due to the internationalization of production and the transition of countries to a new technological basis of production, which further enhances the international nature of the markets for factors of production (raw materials, materials, equipment, labor) and causes global structural crises.
Since the second half of the XX century. the amplitude of fluctuations in business activity has also changed: the phases of the economic downturn have become shorter, and the phases of the rise in production have become longer. The amplitude of fluctuations in production volumes also decreased.
For example, in the United States, GDP growth in the expansion phase fell from 30.1% in 1919–1938 to 30.1%. to 20.9% in 1948-1982, and its decline in the recession phase decreased from 14.1 to 2.5%. The recession of the American economy in 1990-1991, which lasted almost 9 months, led to a reduction in real GDP by only 1.4%. This recession was shorter and more moderate than the two previous recessions of 1973-1975 and 1981-1982.
At the beginning of the XXI century. a new global economic crisis began, the emergence of which is due to the following factors: the general cyclical nature of economic development; imbalances in international trade and capital movements; overheating of the credit and stock markets; credit expansion, deployed in the 1980s - early 2000s, as well as high prices for commodities (including oil).
The global economic crisis that has begun is global, unlike a number of previous ones, which is determined by the high level of globalization of the world economy and finance and the beginning of the crisis in the center of the world economy, and not on the "periphery". Thus, the crisis hit, first of all, the US banking system, which led to the virtual disappearance of investment banks.
The global crisis of the XXI century. is of a systemic nature, as evidenced by the large-scale systemic imbalance of the world economy. The world economy cannot develop in the old way; the resources of economic policy built on the combination of a systematic decline in real wages with the promotion of consumption. The fall in consumption in the "old" industrial countries leads to a loss of efficiency economic model based on the use of cheap labor in developing countries. A further reduction in commodity prices by reducing the cost of labor power is impossible, since its resources are almost exhausted. Inflation is one of the manifestations of the global crisis and is generated by a change in the balance between commodity and money supply in economics. A significant part of securities, residential real estate is depreciating, and the purchasing power population.
In 2008 and 2009 most politicians and economists predicted the imminent end of the crisis. However, there were also alternative opinions. In particular, the Russian economist M. Khazin estimated the duration of the crisis at 5–8 years. In 2011–2012 more and more economists began to talk about the protracted nature of the crisis. It is especially emphasized that the crisis is far from over and it continues to develop. At present, the global economic crisis manifests itself mainly in financial sector: in destabilization stock markets, losses of banks, rising inflation, appreciation of capital.
The economic crisis is a sharp deterioration in the economic condition of the country, manifested in a significant decline in production, disruption of established industrial relations, bankruptcy of enterprises, an increase in unemployment and, as a result, a decrease in living standards and the welfare of the population.
The essence of the economic crisis is manifested in the overproduction of goods in relation to the solvent aggregate demand, violation of the process of conditions for the reproduction of social capital, mass bankruptcies of firms, rising unemployment and other socio-economic shocks.
The main function of the crisis is the destruction of those elements that are the least stable and viable and most disrupt the organization of the whole. There is a simplification of the system and an increase in its harmony.
In the economy, the crisis destroys many of the weakest and least expediently organized enterprises, discarding outdated methods of production and forms of enterprise organization in favor of more modern ones. The general collapse also involves many advanced enterprises.
The causes of the crisis may be different. They are divided into objective (associated with the needs of modernization and reconstruction) and subjective (reflecting mistakes and voluntarism in management).
Crises are diverse in their essence, causes and consequences. It is necessary to systematize (classify) them in a certain way in order to manage them more effectively, forming adequate means.
Crisis issues can be divided into macro- and micro-crises. Macrocrisis covers large volumes and scales of problems, microcrisis - only a separate problem or group of problems. A local, or microcrisis, can spread like a chain reaction to the entire system, because there is an organic interaction of all elements in the system and problems cannot be solved separately.
Economic crises are crises in the production and sale of goods and services.
Social crises reflect contradictions in the interests of various social groups, among them a special place is occupied by political crises - crises of power, which often lead to economic crises.
Organizational crises manifest themselves as paralysis (or a sharp deterioration) of organizational performance. Organizational cycles are most clearly manifested when the stages of the life cycle of enterprises and their products change.
Psychological crises are crises of the psychological state of people whose symptoms are stress, panic, fear, dissatisfaction, a sense of insecurity, that is, crises of the socio-psychological climate.
The technological crisis is associated with the aggravation of contradictions in the development and implementation of new technological solutions in the process of changing the technological order. These are crises of scientific and technological progress.
Ecological crises sharply worsen the living conditions of people. These are crises in the relationship between man and nature, caused by a disdainful attitude to the requirements of the law of natural balance.
Explicit crises are noticeable and easily detected. Hidden leaks are less noticeable, and therefore much more difficult to avoid or limit.
Deep, or acute, crises can lead to the destruction of various structures of the economic system, here many contradictions are tied into a complex tangle. Such crises are usually protracted. Soft, or light, crises are less painful, they are more manageable, and often short-term.
Crises can also be predictable and unexpected.
Predictable crises come as a stage of development, they can be predicted and are caused by objective reasons for the accumulation of crisis factors - the needs of restructuring production, changing the structure of interests under the influence of scientific and technological progress.
A variety of predictable crises is a cyclical crisis. Of course, in the event that the nature of the crisis and its nature are known and studied. It can occur periodically and has known phases of its onset and course.
Unexpected crises are often the result of blunders in management, or some kind of natural phenomena, or economic dependence contributing to the expansion and spread of local crises.
There are also obvious crises (they occur noticeably and are easily detected) and latent ones (hidden, proceed relatively imperceptibly and therefore are the most dangerous).
All possible crises are also divided into protracted and temporary. The time factor plays an important role in crisis situations. Protracted crises, as a rule, are painful and difficult. They are often the result of inability to manage crisis situations, misunderstanding of the nature and nature of the crisis, its causes and possible consequences.
Depending on the nature of economic downturns, their coverage of various spheres or sectors of the national economy, it is necessary to distinguish between the following types of economic crises: cyclical, intermediate, structural, partial, sectoral.
Cyclic crises are periodically repeated declines in social production, causing paralysis of business and labor activity (activity) in all spheres of the national economy and giving rise to a new cycle of economic activity.
Intermediate crises are sporadically emerging recessions in social production, which temporarily interrupt the stages of recovery and growth of the national economy. Unlike cyclical crises, they do not give rise to a new cycle, they are local in nature and short-lived.
Structural crises are associated with a gradual and prolonged increase in intersectoral disproportions in social production and are characterized by a discrepancy between the existing structure of social production and the changed conditions for the efficient use of resources. They cause long-term shocks and require for their resolution a relatively long period of adaptation to the changed conditions of the process of social reproduction.
A prime example of the global structural crisis can be the energy crisis that developed in the mid-1970s, which took more than 5 years to adapt the national economies of industrialized countries to the new structure of energy prices (price jump exceeded 4-5-fold increase). As a result, technologically, financially and economically national economies were forced to orient and adapt industries and industries to energy-saving technologies and changes in the structure of consumed energy carriers.
Partial crises are associated with a drop in economic activity within large areas of activity. In particular, we are talking about money circulation and loans, the banking system, stock and currency markets. The world currency crisis of the 1970s, as is known, led to the transition from the Bretton Woods monetary system to the Jamaica Agreement of 1976, according to which gold ceased to play the role of world money and became one of the commodities. Well known and biggest crisis banking system Germany 1932.
Sectoral crises are characterized by declines in production and curtailment of economic activity in one of the branches of industry, the national economy. The history of such crises is most fully traced in the coal, steel, textile, and shipbuilding industries.
Seasonal crises are caused by the impact of natural and climatic factors that disrupt the accepted rhythm of economic activity. In particular, a delay in the arrival of spring could cause a crisis in the utilities sector due to lack of fuel.
World crises are determined by the coverage of both individual industries and areas of economic activity on a global scale, and the entire world economy.
Thus, a wide variety of crises is generated by a huge number of causes. Anti-crisis management exists in order to, if possible, avoid a crisis (to prevent its occurrence), and if this is not possible, to limit the development of the crisis and mitigate its consequences.