The main forms of crises. Features of structural crises
Federal agency of Education
State educational institution
higher professional education
Siberian State Aerospace University
named after academician M.F. Reshetnev "
Institute of International Innovative Business and Administration
Department of Economics
COURSE WORK
Structural crises, from causes and consequences.
Krasnoyarsk 2010
Introduction ................................................. .................................................. ...................................... 3
1. Structural crises and their relationship with economic cycles ............................. 5
1.1. Theories of the cyclical nature of the economy ............................................... ..................................... 5
1.2. The concept and essence of the structural crisis and its regulation ............................... 8
2. Structural crisis in the Russian economy: nature, reasons, ways to overcome ..... 13
2.1. Causes and features of the structural crisis in Russia, the sectoral structure of the Russian economy in comparison with a similar structure developed countries. .......................... 13
2.2. Anti-cyclical policy of the state and the choice of the Russian version of the strategy of structural regulation ........................................ ............................................... eighteen
Conclusion................................................. .................................................. ............................... 26
List of used literature …………………… .. ………………………………… ... 28
Introduction
By itself, the economic crisis does not arise from anywhere and does not go anywhere. It is inherent in all types of industrial relations. The economic crisis is: inevitable and historically progressive character... It is inevitable due to the fact that human society at this stage of development (as well as during the life of previous generations) cannot adjust the development of productive forces so that they develop progressively (their expanded reproduction is carried out) and evenly. The emerging crises in the economy are also progressive in nature due to the fact that in the process of their deepening everything obsolete and ineffective perishes: obsolete means of production and obsolete technological processes, obsolete methods of production and management.
For a long time, an economic crisis was understood as a cyclical crisis of overproduction that periodically covers the economies of countries. But the essence of crises goes deeper. Economic crises are based on crises of production relations and the resulting general crises of productive forces.
The economic crisis is an integral part of what is economic theory called a cycle. Any crisis is cyclical.
The cyclical nature of development is organically inherent in modern market production. The specificity is manifested in the social - economic level development of countries, which predetermines long and short cyclical waves, repeating in time sequentially connected phases: crisis, depression, recovery, recovery. In our time, the prevailing place has been taken by the idea of looking at the cycle as a single process that consistently passes through the phases of crises and ups, and not just as a random sequence of crises interrupting from time to time the course of reproduction. The subject of research is the entire cycle, and not its individual phases.
Currently, 1,380 types of business cycle have been identified.
Theories studying cycles, based on the time of their course, can be divided into three groups, and, accordingly, three types of cycles can be defined:
· “Inventory cycle” - lasts 2-3 years.
· “Construction cycle” - lasts 15-20 years.
· "Long waves" - last 40-60 years.
Each of the theories looks deeper, each of them tries to find the reasons for the constant deviation economic system from a state of equilibrium. Many reasons have been put forward for cyclical fluctuations from monetary expansion and innovation theory to a theory linking business swings to solar activity.
Cyclicity as an economic law is denied by many economists, for example, Nobel laureates P. Samuelson, author of the first textbook “Economics”, V. Leontiev, and many domestic scientists. However, life triumphs, and cyclicality attracts the attention of the most inquisitive researchers.
Cyclicity is a universal form of movement of national economies and the world economy as a whole. It expresses uneven functioning various elements national economy, the change of revolutionary and evolutionary stages of its development, economic progress. Finally, cyclicality is the most important factor. economic dynamics, one of the determinants macroeconomic equilibrium... Most characteristic cyclicity - movement - occurs not in a circle, but in a spiral. Therefore, cyclicality is a form of progressive development. Each cycle has its own phases, its own duration. The characteristics of the phases are unique in their specific indicators. A particular cycle, phase has no twins. They are original both historically and regionally.
The aim of my work is to study the causes and essence of structural crises.
Coursework objectives:
- Identify the relationship between structural crises and economic cycles.
- Consider the main theories of the cyclical nature of the economy.
- Consider the relationship between crises and macroeconomic problems.
- Show the countercyclical policy of the state with specific examples.
Chapter 1.Structural crises and their relationship
with economic cycles
1.1. The theory of the cyclical nature of the economy.
The idea of economic cycles was first formed by the French scientist Juglar back in the middle of the 19th century. Prior to that, the attention of scientists - economists was paid not to cycles, but only to crises, which were considered not as components of the cyclical development of the economy, but as a sign of a socio - economic cataclysm. Juglar determined the length of economic cycles at 7-11 years, i.e. an average of 9 years. It is this interval that was observed in the last 30 years of the last century in medium term cycles production of world gross product, the minimum growth rate of which fell on the crisis 1973 - 1974, 1981 - 1982, 1990 - 1991.
N. Kondratyev developed the doctrine of the regularity of the cyclical system dynamics associated with the frequency of industrial crises as a factor influencing changes in people's life, i.e. on the social sphere economy. In 1926. on the basis of the analysis, he came to the conclusion that crises since the 1920s. XIX century. pass "... with a rare socially - economic phenomena regularity, after about 7-11 years, follow one another and shake the entire national economy. He put forward a hypothesis about the mechanism of long cycles in the economy ("large cycles of the conjuncture" in his terminology), linking them not only with price dynamics, but also with the process of capital accumulation, production growth rates and innovation dynamics, with the constant evolution of the national economy. The movement of long vibrations according to Kondratyev occurs according to the following principle. Before the start of a large cycle, a sufficient amount of free funds accumulates - growth bank reserves, which allows lenders to reduce interest rate... The percentage of long-term premises is low. During the previous period of decline, a significant number of technical innovations (inventions) have accumulated. In the presence of these conditions, capital investment in large structures begins to increase, which causes serious changes in production conditions (technical opportunities for profit are created), while production becomes profitable, and then, accordingly, an upward wave of a large cycle of economic conditions follows.
Throughout the period under study, Kondratyev also made 4 important observations regarding the nature of these cycles - “4 empirical correctness”.
1) At the origins of the upward phase, or at the very beginning, a profound change occurs in the entire life of capitalist society. These changes are preceded by significant scientific and technical inventions and innovations.
2) The periods of the upward wave of each large cycle account for the largest number of social upheavals (wars and revolutions).
3) Downward phases have a particularly depressing effect on agriculture. Low commodity prices during a downturn increase the relative value of gold, prompting increased production. The accumulation of gold is helping the economy to recover from a protracted crisis.
4) Periodic crises (7-11-year cycle), as it were, are strung on the corresponding phases of the long wave and change their dynamics depending on it - during periods of a long rise, more time is spent on "prosperity", and during periods of a long recession, crisis years become more frequent.
Understanding the cyclical nature of economic development became especially widespread at the end - XIX early XX centuries, when scientists from many countries paid attention to the dynamics of individual economic indicators... This provided the basis for the classification of theories of economic cycles, which was most fully presented in his work "Economic Cycles" W. Mitchell. American economist the following theories of economic cycles are distinguished:
1. Theories that reduce economic cycles to natural-physical processes. These theories explained the cyclical nature of economic life by the cycles of solar radiation, the change in the position of Venus relative to the Earth, and meteorological conditions.
2. Theories that reduce economic cycles to psychological causes that create either a favorable or unfavorable environment for economic activity... According to some economists, fluctuations in the mass sentiment of people precede fluctuations in wholesale prices, influence decision-making in economic sphere... These theories are based on a fact noticed in public life, indicating the frequency of changes in society of motivational structures, creative activity of the population, and social moods. Cyclical changes in the socio-psychological variable, covering the "degree of activity" of the population, its entrepreneurial spirit, "optimistic outlook on the future" and other individual and socio-psychological aspirations of people determine long-term cycles economic development.
STRUCTURAL CRISIS STRUCTURAL CRISIS
STRUCTURAL CRISIS (Greek krisis - decision, turning point, outcome), in the economy - the discrepancy between the outdated mechanisms of the existing economic policy and the new conditions of economic activity that have changed as a result of the development of the economy.
encyclopedic Dictionary. 2009 .
See what "STRUCTURAL CRISIS" is in other dictionaries:
Structural crisis Encyclopedia of Law
structural crisis- Violation of the proportions of social production resulting from the exacerbation of contradictions between developed and developing countries, as well as due to the growth of environmental problems, includes economic, energy, raw materials, foreign exchange ... ... Geography Dictionary
Structural crisis- see Crisis; Economic crisis … Big Law Dictionary
Debt crisis- (Debt crisis) A debt crisis is a situation in which state debt growing in relation to tax revenues The world debt crisis, the sovereign debt crisis in a number of European countries, the causes of debt crises, ... ... Investor encyclopedia
DEBT CRISIS, solvency crisis- - a situation in which the debtor is unable to repay his external debt according to the schedule agreed with the loan. In modern conditions in such cases, the debt settlement procedure is applied. More often this happens at the multilateral, but ... ...
ECONOMIC CRISIS- the phase of the business cycle, the lowest point of economic development. Characterized a sharp drop market conditions, destabilization national economy, increasing imbalances in social reproduction. E. To. appear with the transition from ... ... Financial and credit encyclopedic dictionary
Economic crisis Encyclopedia of Law
Economic crisis- (English economic recession / crisis) 1) crisis of overproduction - the relative overproduction of goods that cannot be sold due to the limited effective demand of the population; 2) the structural crisis is an overdue discrepancy between ... ... Big Law Dictionary
This article describes current events. Information can change rapidly as an event unfolds. You are viewing the article as of 14:59 on December 13, 2012 (UTC). (... Wikipedia
commodity crisis- Structural economic crisis, reflecting the disproportions between the growth of consumption of raw materials and the volume of its production in the world economy ... Geography Dictionary
Books
- , Mau Vladimir Alexandrovich. The book is devoted to the study of crises in the newest (post-communist) Russian history... Among them are transformational, macroeconomic, structural, revolutionary crises, as well as crises ...
- Crises and lessons. Russian Economy in the Age of Turbulence, V. Mau. The book is devoted to the study of crises in recent (post-communist) Russian history. Among them are transformational, macroeconomic, structural, revolutionary crises, as well as crises ...
The starting phase of the cyclical movement of the economy is itself a crisis ... The key form here is the cyclical overproduction crisis (a crisis market economy, in which the balance of supply and demand is sharply violated towards the excess of supply over demand, in other words, the ability of consumers to buy goods in the amount that is produced or can be produced based on existing resources and technology is seriously disturbed)
However, along with this form in a market economy, there are also such crises as intermediate, partial, sectoral and structural.
Intermediate crisis only interrupts the flow of the revitalization or ascent phase and does not cause the formation of a new cycle. It differs in less depth and duration than a cyclical crisis of overproduction, and, as a rule, has a local character.
Partial crisis does not cover the entire economy, but only a certain area economic activity... This form includes, for example, financial , currency , banking and exchange crises.
Industry crisis has a sphere of its manifestation in any particular branch of industry, Agriculture, construction, transport, etc.
And finally structural crisis extends to individual spheres of the structure of the national economy, and its duration is not always limited to the time of one cycle. Structural crises usually include such crises as energy, raw materials, etc.
Structural crises are characterized by the following features:
one). They are associated with a deep restructuring of the economy in both sectoral and regional aspects;
2). They are protracted and affect specific industries or groups of industries;
3). They influence the development of the national economy in different ways.
One of the determining factors in modern world becomes instability. In general, the earthly civilization is in a state of permanent turmoil.
In recent decades, there has been a general decrease in the amplitude of fluctuations in GNP volume, and the average height of the rise has decreased to a much lesser extent than the depth of the recession. In addition, the duration of the decline phase has gradually become much shorter than the time duration of the rise. Of course, the danger of reproduction crises persists today. However, it becomes a reality primarily in those countries where the market economy is in its infancy.
The change in the nature of the cyclical fluctuations of the conjuncture also manifested itself in the less certainty of the phases of the cycle, when it became incomparably more difficult to clearly separate them from each other. This "erosion" of the phases of the cyclical development of the conjuncture is associated with the scientific and technological revolution unfolding in the world, which encourages entrepreneurs to renew capital not only when the national economy comes out of a depression, but also at other phases of the cycle, including (of course, to a much lesser extent) and The "bottom" of the recession.
Economic cyclicality. Cycle reasons.
The concept of cyclicity
Cyclicity is understood as the frequency of repeated imbalances in the economic system, leading to the curtailment of economic activity, recession, and crisis. Cyclicality is a general rate of movement of a market economy, reflecting its unevenness, a change in evolutionary and revolutionary forms of economic progress, fluctuations in business activity and market conditions, an alternation of predominantly extensive or intensive economic growth; one of the determinants of economic dynamics and macroeconomic equilibrium and one of the ways of self-regulation of a market economy, including changing it sectoral structure... At the same time, cyclicality is very sensitive to government impact on socio-economic processes in society. The cyclical nature of economic development in its overwhelming part is due to the growth, exacerbation and destruction of the internal contradictions of the economic system.
Reasons for cyclicality
The formal possibility of crises and, consequently, cycles is already inherent in simple commodity circulation and is associated with the function of money as a medium of circulation. The discrepancy between the acts of purchase and sale by place and time creates the prerequisites for a break in a single chain of purchase and sale transactions. Another formal possibility of a crisis is associated with the function of money as a means of payment. Credit relations are known to be based on the future solvency of buyers or sellers. However, a failure in only one link of the credit chain breaks it and causes a chain reaction that can lead to a breakdown of the system of social production.
When analyzing the real reasons causing the cyclical development of the economy, three main approaches can be distinguished.
First, the nature of business cycles is explained by factors outside the economic system. These are natural phenomena, political events, psychological preconditions, etc. It is, in particular, about the cycles of solar activity, wars, revolutions and other political upheavals, about discoveries large deposits valuable resources or territories, about powerful breakthroughs in technology and technology.
Secondly, the cycle is considered as an internal phenomenon inherent in the economy. Internal factors can cause both a decline and an increase in economic activity at regular intervals. One of the decisive factors is the cyclical nature of the renewal of fixed assets. In particular, the beginning of the economic boom, accompanied by a sharp increase in demand for machinery and equipment, obviously suggests that it will repeat itself after a certain period of time, when this equipment is physically or morally worn out and outdated.
Third, the reasons for the cycles are seen in the interaction of internal states of the economy and external factors. According to this point of view external factors are considered as primary sources that provoke the entry into action of internal factors that transform the received impulses from external sources into phase fluctuations of the economic system. The state is often referred to as external sources.
31. System of National Accounts (SNA) and Main Macroeconomic Indicators.
The System of National Accounts (SNA) is a set of indicators of a consistent and interconnected description of the most important processes and phenomena of the economy: production, consumption, capital accumulation, finance, income.
The SNA proceeds from the fact that all products are produced both in the sphere of material production and in the sphere of services, therefore the SNA covers the activities:
· Companies and enterprises producing goods and services;
· Private unincorporated enterprises;
· Persons of free professions (lawyers, artists, journalists, etc.);
· Employees of the sphere of management;
· Financial and commercial organizations;
· Non-profit organizations (clubs, societies, associations);
· Hired servants;
· Owners of rental housing.
The SNA gives a stepped picture of the development of the economy, including information on a standard set (for all sectors of the economy) of accounts, in which transactions related to the main phases of the economic process are recorded.
Account data are summarized and analyzed by sector. The main sectors of the SNA are:
· Non-financial enterprises engaged in the production of goods and services sold on the market;
· financial institutions and corporations;
· Government bodies;
· Private non-profit organizations serving households;
· Households (as consumers and as entrepreneurs);
· The rest of the world (including foreign economic relations).
The main indicators of the system of national accounts are as follows:
1. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - market price all final goods and services produced in the economy for the year. GDP measures the value of products produced by all economic entities in a given country. Nominal GDP is measured in monetary terms at current prices. But in order to compare GDP in different years, it is important to know whether inflation or deflation took place in a particular period, since the cost of production volumes in different years can be comparable only if the cost money supply did not change.
2. Gross National Income (GNI) is the gross final cost of all goods and services produced by subjects of the national economy on the territory of the country and abroad, excluding the value produced by foreign entities in a given country. In developed countries, the differences between GNP and GDP are small - 1-3%.
3. National income (NI)- This is the income of society, obtained as a result of the consumption of productive resources. This is real income, which is part of the gross product excluding the value of the means of production consumed.
Disposable income (RD) or personal disposable income
- income received by households. It is at the personal disposal of members of society and is used for consumption and savings of households.
Net Domestic Product (NPP)
- This is GDP minus that part of the created product, which is necessary to replace the means of production worn out in the process of production (depreciation).
Every day I hear conversations about the structural crisis of the Russian economy around me. True, no one offers a solution that helps to overcome it or minimize the consequences. Here is my view on this problem.
Economy of the country
The opinion is erroneous that the country's economy is exclusively its man-made agricultural resources. Meanwhile, this is a deeper concept.
The economic activity of the state implies all resources produced by man or laid by nature and located within its borders, which are used to improve the living conditions of the population in this state.
The manifestation of the economic crisis in Russia
The crisis in the Russian economy, in my opinion, is expressed by the following indicators:
- low level economic development of society;
- vastness of territories;
- climatic conditions not suitable for the life of animals, plants and humans.
![](https://i1.wp.com/s3.travelask.ru/system/images/files/001/018/725/wysiwyg/74f15030057c64de9861859bdeae5dd4.jpg)
At the same time, the second indicator is excluded altogether if the first is high: it is not a problem to overcome significant distances, having freely available aircraft capable of transporting loads of significant mass at supersonic speed, which are unlikely to appear in the conditions of the resource-based economy of Russia.
The third indicator, albeit not completely, is also neutralized by the first: information leaks out in the media that climatic conditions can be influenced. At the worst, genetic engineering is not asleep, capable of growing the fruits of agriculture and animal husbandry that are resistant to minimum temperatures.
Overcoming barriers
The recipe for overcoming the structural crisis of human economic activity in Russia is very simple: an early transition to a post-industrial economy.
Post-industrial economy- this is advanced nanotechnology, industrial automation, high performance indicators of a person who is not physically loaded for eight or more hours a day, six days a week, but intellectually, for a short time.
![](https://i1.wp.com/s1.travelask.ru/system/images/files/001/018/726/wysiwyg/010.jpg)
But is this possible in Russia in the presence of vast territories and natural resources per capita? The question is open ...
In contrast to cyclical crises of overproduction, structural crises are manifested in changes not in the general economic situation, but in some individual sectors or spheres of the economy. Economic history knows agrarian, currency, financial and other types of structural crises. Currency crises are expressed in sharp volatility exchange rates a number of countries. Agrarian crises are manifested in periodic difficulties in the sale of agricultural products in national or world markets. (structural changes in economic development).
The structural crisis manifests itself in different ways in various spheres of national economies and in each of these spheres it has special aspects and, accordingly, separate, local causes, the combinations of which the analyst observing its development can select and assemble at his discretion.
Structural crisis- conflict between the old structure of the economy and demands new technology... The structural crisis is accompanied by a decline in social production, disruption of the normal functioning of markets and the monetary sphere, unemployment, etc. The structural crisis is overcome when the old structure gives way to new branches of production, new forms of organization and regulation.
Structural crises are characterized by prolonged stagnation in traditionally important industries and sectors of production, lingering disruptions in the monetary and foreign exchange spheres, finance, international trade, and existing forms of organization and regulation of the economy.
Thus, structural crises are caused by the fact that the possibilities of the old economic structure on the whole do not meet the requirements of new equipment and technology, it is not ready for changes. The inertia of the old structure is delaying the restructuring, making the exit from the crisis longer and more painful. At this time, the general growth rates fall sharply, leading to a stagnation of social production, the normal functioning of the monetary sphere is disrupted, and general terms and Conditions management.
Structural crises are accompanied by an overaccumulation of fixed capital, a sharp prolonged decline in production and the corresponding technological and structural unemployment, an increase in labor migration, a devaluation of its previous qualifications, a violation of the correspondence between the main elements of the productive forces (means and objects of labor, means of production and workers, etc.), and also between constituent parts technological method of production. These long-term violations, in turn, cause structural shifts within individual forms of ownership and between them, a change in the relationship between market levers of self-regulation of the economy and government regulation, within each of the types of regulation. If structural crises affect several or many countries at the same time, then it is necessary to use or strengthen supranational regulation in certain areas.
The crises in the 70s can serve as an example of modern structural crises. XX century They covered, first of all, a group of industries of the fuel and energy complex (energy crisis) and energy-intensive industries (automobile, steel, etc.). Coal, metallurgical (ferrous metallurgy), shipbuilding, automobile, rubber, textile and some other industries were in the deepest crisis state. Structural crises expanded from basic, extractive industries to defense industries. Thus, the fuel and energy crisis of 1973-1975, which was accompanied by a sharp rise in energy prices, affected primarily the energy-intensive automotive industry, forcing it to switch to energy-saving technologies. At the same time, production in other energy-intensive industries fell sharply, and there was a significant depreciation of fixed capital. In the United States during the crisis of 1980-1982. in general, the industry used about 65 production capacities, and in the steel industry - less than 30%. Within the same limits in 1974-1975. in the Western countries, the production capacity of ferrous metallurgy was used, which was due to a significant reduction in demand for metal from a number of industries that consume it, its replacement with plastics and other more resource-saving materials. (book: cyclical fluctuations and crises in the economy.
48. Anti-crisis regulation is a government policy aimed at preventing the development of crises on the scale of the entire economy, which is a system, an important element of which is the protection of enterprises from crisis situations and the regulation of bankruptcy processes. Regulation can be statutory and creative. Anti-crisis regulation requires a reliable data base, the creation of a specific research methodology, the involvement of highly qualified specialists, research, as well as the development, adoption and implementation of measures that stabilize the state of the economy. In this direction government bodies carry out:
Legal regulation - creation legal basis anti-crisis regulation, conducting an examination to identify cases of fictitious and deliberate bankruptcy;
Methodological regulation - methodological support for monitoring the state of enterprises, preventing their bankruptcy, judicial procedures, as well as reorganization in the event of the occurrence of the fact of insolvency;
information regulation accounting and analysis
the solvency of large, as well as economically and socially significant enterprises; economic and administrative regulation - the use of effective measures and methods of influencing the economy in order to stabilize it;
Organizational regulation - creating conditions for a civilized resolution of all disputes over the debtor's insolvency;
Social regulation- social protection of employees of a bankrupt enterprise, expressed in the creation of jobs for them, their retraining, payment of benefits;
Personnel regulation - search and training of specialists in anti-crisis management of enterprises (administrative and arbitration managers), raising the level of their qualifications;
Environmental regulation - protection of the natural environment surrounding an enterprise from pollution as a result of their activities.